Trade‐offs and evolution of thermal adaptation in the Irish potato famine pathogen Phytophthora infestans

Temperature is one of the most important environmental parameters with crucial impacts on nearly all biological processes. Due to anthropogenic activity, average air temperatures are expected to increase by a few degrees in coming decades, accompanied by an increased occurrence of extreme temperature events. Such global trends are likely to have various major impacts on human society through their influence on natural ecosystems, food production and biotic interactions, including diseases. In this study, we used a combination of statistical genetics, experimental evolution and common garden experiments to investigate the evolutionary potential for thermal adaptation in the potato late blight pathogen, Phytophthora infestans, and infer its likely response to changing temperatures. We found a trade‐off associated with thermal adaptation to heterogeneous environments in P. infestans, with the degree of the trade‐off peaking approximately at the pathogen's optimum growth temperature. A genetic trade‐off in thermal adaptation was also evidenced by the negative association between a strain's growth rate and its thermal range for growth, and warm climates selecting for a low pathogen growth rate. We also found a mirror effect of phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation on growth rate. At below the optimum, phenotypic plasticity enhances pathogen's growth rate but nature selects for slower growing genotypes when temperature increases. At above the optimum, phenotypic plasticity reduces pathogen's growth rate but natural selection favours for faster growing genotypes when temperature increases further. We conclude from these findings that the growth rate of P. infestans will only be marginally affected by global warming.     

RESPONSE TO NATURAL ENVIRONMENTAL HETEROGENEITY: MATERNAL EFFECTS AND SELECTION ON LIFE-HISTORY CHARACTERS AND PLASTICITIES IN MIMULUS GUTTATUS

Recent studies in plant populations have found that environmental heterogeneity and phenotypic selection vary at local spatial scales. In this study, I ask if there is evolutionary change in response to environmental heterogeneity and, if so, whether the response occurs for characters or character plasticities. I used vegetative clones of Mimulus guttatus to create replicate populations of 75 genotypes. These populations were planted into the natural habitat where they differed in mean growth, flowering phenology, and life span. This phenotypic variation was used to define selective environments. There was variation in fitness (flower production) among genotypes across all planting sites and in genotype response to the selective environment. Offspring from each site were grown in the greenhouse in two water treatments. Because each population initially had the same genetic composition, variation in the progeny between selective environments reveals either evolutionary change in response to environmental heterogeneity or environmental maternal effects. Plants from experimental sites that flowered earlier, had shorter life spans and were less productive, produced offspring that had more flowers, on average, and were less plastic in vegetative allocation than offspring of longer-lived plants from high-productivity areas. However, environmental maternal effects masked phenotypic differences in flower production. Therefore, although there was evidence of genetic differentiation in both life-history characters and their plasticities in response to small-scale environmental heterogeneity, environmental maternal effects may slow evolutionary change. Response to local-scale selective regimes suggests that environmental heterogeneity and local variation in phenotypic selection may act to maintain genetic variation.     

Adaptive plasticity and niche expansion in an invasive thistle

Phenotypic differentiation in size and fecundity between native and invasive populations of a species has been suggested as a causal driver of invasion in plants. Local adaptation to novel environmental conditions through a micro‐evolutionary response to natural selection may lead to phenotypic differentiation and fitness advantages in the invaded range. Local adaptation may occur along a stress tolerance trade‐off, favoring individuals that, in benign conditions, shift resource allocation from stress tolerance to increased vigor and fecundity and, therefore, invasiveness. Alternately, the typically disturbed invaded range may select for a plastic, generalist strategy, making phenotypic plasticity the main driver of invasion success. To distinguish between these hypotheses, we performed a field common garden and tested for genetically based phenotypic differentiation, resource allocation shifts in response to water limitation, and local adaptation to the environmental gradient which describes the source locations for native and invasive populations of diffuse knapweed (Centaurea diffusa). Plants were grown in an experimental field in France (naturalized range) under water addition and limitation conditions. After accounting for phenotypic variation arising from environmental differences among collection locations, we found evidence of genetic variation between the invasive and native populations for most morphological and life‐history traits under study. Invasive C. diffusa populations produced larger, later maturing, and therefore potentially fitter individuals than native populations. Evidence for local adaptation along a resource allocation trade‐off for water limitation tolerance is equivocal. However, native populations do show evidence of local adaptation to an environmental gradient, a relationship which is typically not observed in the invaded range. Broader analysis of the climatic niche inhabited by the species in both ranges suggests that the physiological tolerances of C. diffusa may have expanded in the invaded range. This observation could be due to selection for plastic, “general‐purpose” genotypes with broad environmental tolerances.     

Genetic variation for parental effects on the propensity to gregarise in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Locusta migratoria</Emphasis>

Background  

Environmental parental effects can have important ecological and evolutionary consequences, yet little is known about genetic variation among populations in the plastic responses of offspring phenotypes to parental environmental conditions. This type of variation may lead to rapid phenotypic divergence among populations and facilitate speciation. With respect to density-dependent phenotypic plasticity, locust species (Orthoptera: family Acrididae), exhibit spectacular developmental and behavioural shifts in response to population density, called phase change. Given the significance of phase change in locust outbreaks and control, its triggering processes have been widely investigated. Whereas crowding within the lifetime of both offspring and parents has emerged as a primary causal factor of phase change, less is known about intraspecific genetic variation in the expression of phase change, and in particular in response to the parental environment. We conducted a laboratory experiment that explicitly controlled for the environmental effects of parental rearing density. This design enabled us to compare the parental effects on offspring expression of phase-related traits between two naturally-occurring, genetically distinct populations of Locusta migratoria that differed in their historical patterns of high population density outbreak events.     

Paleogenetic records of Daphnia pulicaria in two North American lakes reveal the impact of cultural eutrophication

Understanding the evolutionary consequences of the green revolution, particularly in wild populations, is an important frontier in contemporary biology. Because human impacts have occurred at varying magnitudes or time periods depending on the study ecosystem, evolutionary histories may vary considerably among populations. Paleogenetics in conjunction with paleolimnology enable us to associate microevolutionary dynamics with detailed information on environmental change. We used this approach to reconstruct changes in the temporal population genetic structure of the keystone zooplankton grazer, Daphnia pulicaria, using dormant eggs extracted from sediments in two Minnesota lakes (South Center, Hill). The extent of agriculture and human population density in the catchment of these lakes has differed markedly since European settlement in the late 19th century and is reflected in their environmental histories reconstructed here. The reconstructed environments of these two lakes differed strongly in terms of environmental stability and their associated patterns of Daphnia population structure. We detected long periods of stability in population structure and environmental conditions in South Center Lake that were followed by a dramatic temporal shift in population genetic structure after the onset of European settlement and industrialized agriculture in its watershed. In particular, we noted a 24.3‐fold increase in phosphorus (P) flux between pre‐European and modern sediment P accumulation rates (AR) in this lake. In contrast, no such shifts were detected in Hill Lake, where the watershed was not as impacted by European settlement and rates of change were less directional with a much smaller increase in sediment P AR (2.3‐fold). We identify direct and indirect effects of eutrophication proxies on genetic structure in these lake populations and demonstrate the power of using this approach in understanding the consequences of anthropogenic environmental change on natural populations throughout historic time periods.     

Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change

Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long‐term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community‐level responses to long‐term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL.     

The evolutionary consequences of habitat fragmentation: Body morphology and coloration differentiation among brook trout populations of varying size

A reduction in population size due to habitat fragmentation can alter the relative roles of different evolutionary mechanisms in phenotypic trait differentiation. While deterministic (selection) and stochastic (genetic drift) mechanisms are expected to affect trait evolution, genetic drift may be more important than selection in small populations. We examined relationships between mature adult traits and ecological (abiotic and biotic) variables among 14 populations of brook trout. These naturally fragmented populations have shared ancestry but currently exhibit considerable variability in habitat characteristics and population size (49 < N_c < 10,032; 3 < N_b < 567). Body size, shape, and coloration differed among populations, with a tendency for more variation among small populations in both trait means and CV when compared to large populations. Phenotypic differences were more frequently and directly linked to habitat variation or operational sex ratio than to population size, suggesting that selection may overcome genetic drift at small population size. Phenotype–environment associations were also stronger in females than males, suggesting that natural selection due to abiotic conditions may act more strongly on females than males. Our results suggest that natural and sexual‐selective pressures on phenotypic traits change during the process of habitat fragmentation, and that these changes are largely contingent upon existing habitat conditions within isolated fragments. Our study provides an improved understanding of the ecological and evolutionary consequences of habitat fragmentation and lends insight into the ability of some small populations to respond to selection and environmental change.     

The impacts of changing nutrient load and climate on a deep,eutrophic, monomictic lake

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Transgenerational effects alleviate severe fecundity loss during ocean acidification in a ubiquitous planktonic copepod

Ocean acidification (OA) caused by anthropogenic CO₂ emission is projected for thousands of years to come, and significant effects are predicted for many marine organisms. While significant evolutionary responses are expected during such persistent environmental change, most studies consider only short‐term effects. Little is known about the transgenerational effects of parental environments or natural selection on the capacity of populations to counter detrimental OA effects. In this study, six laboratory populations of the calanoid copepod Pseudocalanus acuspes were established at three different CO₂ partial pressures (pCO₂ of 400, 900 and 1550 μatm) and grown for two generations at these conditions. Our results show evidence of alleviation of OA effects as a result of transgenerational effects in P. acuspes. Second generation adults showed a 29% decrease in fecundity at 900 μatm CO₂ compared to 400 μatm CO₂. This was accompanied by a 10% increase in metabolic rate indicative of metabolic stress. Reciprocal transplant tests demonstrated that this effect was reversible and the expression of phenotypic plasticity. Furthermore, these tests showed that at a pCO₂ exceeding the natural range experienced by P. acuspes (1550 μatm), fecundity would have decreased by as much as 67% compared to at 400 μatm CO₂ as a result of this plasticity. However, transgenerational effects partly reduced OA effects so that the loss of fecundity remained at a level comparable to that at 900 μatm CO₂. This also relieved the copepods from metabolic stress, and respiration rates were lower than at 900 μatm CO₂. These results highlight the importance of tests for transgenerational effects to avoid overestimation of the effects of OA.     

Ontogenetic plasticity of anatomical and ecophysiological traits and their correlations in Iris pumila plants grown in contrasting light conditions

To better understand what directs and limits the evolution of phenotype, constraints in the realization of the optimal phenotype need to be addressed. That includes estimations of variability of adaptively important traits as well as their correlation structures, but also evaluation of how they are affected by relevant environmental conditions and development phases. The aims of this study were to analyze phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability and correlation structures of important Iris pumila leaf traits in different light environments and ontogenetic phases, and estimate its evolutionary potential. Stomatal density, specific leaf area, total chlorophyll concentration and chlorophyll a/b ratio were analyzed on I. pumila full‐sib families in the seedling phase and on the same plants after 3 years of growth in contrasting light conditions typical for ontogenetic stage in question. There was a significant phenotypic plasticity in both ontogenetic stages, but significant genetic variability was detected only for chlorophyll concentrations. Correlations of the same trait between different stages were weak due to changes in environmental conditions and difference in ontogenetic reaction norms of different genotypes. Ontogenetic variability of correlation structures was detected, where correlations and integration were higher in seedlings compared with adult plants 3 years later. Correlations were affected by environmental conditions, with integration being higher in the lower light conditions, but correlations between phases being stronger in the higher light treatment. These findings demonstrated that the analyzed traits can be selected and can mostly evolve independently in different environments and ontogenetic stages, with low genetic variability as a potentially main constraint.     

Probabilistic maturation reaction norms assessed from mark–recaptures of wild fish in their natural habitat

Reaction norms are a valuable tool in evolutionary biology. Lately, the probabilistic maturation reaction norm approach, describing probabilities of maturing at combinations of age and body size, has been much applied for testing whether phenotypic changes in exploited populations of fish are mainly plastic or involving an evolutionary component. However, due to typical field data limitations, with imperfect knowledge about individual life histories, this demographic method still needs to be assessed. Using 13 years of direct mark–recapture observations on individual growth and maturation in an intensively sampled population of brown trout (Salmo trutta), we show that the probabilistic maturation reaction norm approach may perform well even if the assumption of equal survival of juvenile and maturing fish does not hold. Earlier studies have pointed out that growth effects may confound the interpretation of shifts in maturation reaction norms, because this method in its basic form deals with body size rather than growth. In our case, however, we found that juvenile body size, rather than annual growth, was more strongly associated with maturation. Viewed against earlier studies, our results also underscore the challenges of generalizing life‐history patterns among species and populations.     

Local human pressures influence gene flow in a hybridizing Daphnia species complex

Anthropogenic environmental changes are considered critical drivers of the genetic structure of populations and communities through, for example, the facilitation of introgressive hybridization between syntopic species. However, the mechanisms by which environmental perturbations trigger changes in the genetic structure of populations and communities, such as the processes that determine the directionality of hybridization and patterns of mitochondrial introgression over many generations, remain largely unexplored. In this study, the changes in genetic structure of hybridizing members of the Daphnia longispina species complex were reconstructed over the last 100 years for three large temperate lakes under strong anthropogenic pressures via palaeogenetic analyses of resting egg banks. Drastic changes in the genetic structure of the Daphnia community, associated with hybridization events between D. longispina and D. galeata and subsequent introgression, were detected in Lakes Geneva and Bourget. In Lake Bourget, these changes were induced by the successful establishment of D. galeata with rising phosphorus levels and reinforced by the sensitivity of D. longispina to fish predation pressure. In Lake Geneva, the pattern of hybridization during eutrophication is more likely a function of the original taxonomic composition of the species complex in this lake. Lakes seem to require at least a meso‐oligotrophic status to allow D. galeata populations to establish and accordingly no D. galeata genotypes were found in the egg bank of oligotrophic Lake Annecy. In contrast to the generally assumed pattern of unidirectional hybridization in this species complex, bidirectional hybridization was recorded in Lakes Geneva and Bourget. Our results also demonstrate complex genetic trajectories within this species complex and highlight the irreversibility of changes in the genotypic architecture of populations driven by local human pressures. Finally, we show that extensive hybridization and introgression do not necessarily result in a large and homogenous hybrid swarm.     

An empirical test for a zone of canalization in thermal reaction norms

Theoretical models on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity predict a zone of canalization where reaction norms cross, and genetic variation is minimized in the environment a population most frequently encounter. Empirical tests of this prediction are largely missing, in particular for life‐history traits. We addressed this prediction by quantifying thermal reaction norms of three life‐history traits (somatic growth rate, age and size at maturation) of a Norwegian population of Daphnia magna and testing for the occurrence of an intermediate temperature (T_m) at which genetic variance in the traits is minimized. Size at maturation changed relatively little with temperature compared to the other traits, and there was no genetic variance in the shape of the reaction norm. Consequently, age at maturation and somatic growth rate were strongly negatively correlated. Both traits showed a strong genotype–environment interaction, and the estimated T_m was 14 °C for both age at maturation and growth rate. This value of T_m corresponds well with mean summer temperatures experienced by the population and suggests that the population has evolved under stabilizing selection in temperatures that fluctuate around this mean temperature. These results suggest local adaptation to temperature in the studied population and allow predicting evolutionary trajectories of thermal reaction norms under changing thermal regimes.     

Differential responses to fertilization and competition among invasive,noninvasive alien,and native Bidens species

Comparative studies of invasive, noninvasive alien, and native congenic plant species can identify plant traits that drive invasiveness. In particular, functional traits associated with rapid growth rate and high fecundity likely facilitate invasive success. As such traits often exhibit high phenotypic plasticity, characterizing plastic responses to anthropogenic environmental changes such as eutrophication and disturbance is important for predicting the invasive success of alien plant species in the future. Here, we compared trait expression and phenotypic plasticity at the species level among invasive, noninvasive alien, and native Bidens species. Plants were grown under nutrient addition and competition treatments, and their functional, morphological, and seed traits were examined. Invasive B. frondosa exhibited higher phenotypic plasticity in most measured traits than did the alien noninvasive B. pilosa or native B. bipinnata. However, differential plastic responses to environmental treatments rarely altered the rank of trait values among the three Bidens species, except for the number of inflorescences. The achene size of B. frondosa was larger, but its pappus length was shorter than that of B. pilosa. Two species demonstrated opposite plastic responses of pappus length to fertilization. These results suggest that the plasticity of functional traits does not significantly contribute to the invasive success of B. frondosa. The dispersal efficiency of B. frondosa is expected to be lower than that of B. pilosa, suggesting that long‐distance dispersal is likely not a critical factor in determining invasive success.     

Epigenetic patterns newly established after interspecific hybridization in natural populations of Solanum

Interspecific hybridization is known for triggering genetic and epigenetic changes, such as modifications on DNA methylation patterns and impact on phenotypic plasticity and ecological adaptation. Wild potatoes (Solanum, section Petota) are adapted to multiple habitats along the Andes, and natural hybridizations have proven to be a common feature among species of this group. Solanum × rechei, a recently formed hybrid that grows sympatrically with the parental species S. kurtzianum and S. microdontum, represents an ideal model for studying the ecologically and evolutionary importance of hybridization in generating of epigenetic variability. Genetic and epigenetic variability and their correlation with morphological variation were investigated in wild and ex situ conserved populations of these three wild potato species using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and methylation‐sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) techniques. We observed that novel methylation patterns doubled the number of novel genetic patterns in the hybrid and that the morphological variability measured on 30 characters had a higher correlation with the epigenetic than with the genetic variability. Statistical comparison of methylation levels suggested that the interspecific hybridization induces genome demethylation in the hybrids. A Bayesian analysis of the genetic data reveled the hybrid nature of S. × rechei, with genotypes displaying high levels of admixture with the parental species, while the epigenetic information assigned S. × rechei to its own cluster with low admixture. These findings suggested that after the hybridization event, a novel epigenetic pattern was rapidly established, which might influence the phenotypic plasticity and adaptation of the hybrid to new environments.     

Adaptive admixture in the West African bovine hybrid zone: insight from the Borgou population

Understanding the adaptive response to environmental fluctuations represents a central issue in evolutionary biology. Population admixture between divergent ancestries has often been considered as an efficient short‐term adaptation strategy. Cattle populations from the West African Bos taurus × Bos indicus hybrid zone represent a valuable resource to characterize the effect of such adaptive admixture at the genome level. We here provide a detailed assessment of the global and local genome ancestries of the Borgou breed, one of the most representative cattle of this hybrid zone. We analysed a large data set consisting of 38 100 SNPs genotyped on 203 Borgou and 591 individuals representative of all the different cattle ancestries. At the global genomic level, we show that Borgou is a stabilized admixed breed whose origin (c. 130 years ago) traces back to the great African rinderpest pandemic, several centuries after the last admixture events, the West African zebus originate from (c. 500 years ago). To identify footprints of adaptive admixture, we combined the identification of signatures of selection and the functional annotation of the underlying genes using systems biology tools. The detection of the SILV coat coloration gene likely under artificial selection may be viewed as a validation of our approach. Overall, our results suggest that the long‐term presence of pathogens and the intermediate environmental conditions are the main acting selective pressures. Our analytical framework can be extended to other model or nonmodel species to understand the process that shapes the patterns of genetic variability in hybrid zones.     

On the fate of seasonally plastic traits in a rainforest butterfly under relaxed selection

Many organisms display phenotypic plasticity as adaptation to seasonal environmental fluctuations. Often, such seasonal responses entails plasticity of a whole suite of morphological and life‐history traits that together contribute to the adaptive phenotypes in the alternative environments. While phenotypic plasticity in general is a well‐studied phenomenon, little is known about the evolutionary fate of plastic responses if natural selection on plasticity is relaxed. Here, we study whether the presumed ancestral seasonal plasticity of the rainforest butterfly Bicyclus sanaos (Fabricius, 1793) is still retained despite the fact that this species inhabits an environmentally stable habitat. Being exposed to an atypical range of temperatures in the laboratory revealed hidden reaction norms for several traits, including wing pattern. In contrast, reproductive body allocation has lost the plastic response. In the savannah butterfly, B. anynana (Butler, 1879), these traits show strong developmental plasticity as an adaptation to the contrasting environments of its seasonal habitat and they are coordinated via a common developmental hormonal system. Our results for B. sanaos indicate that such integration of plastic traits – as a result of past selection on expressing a coordinated environmental response – can be broken when the optimal reaction norms for those traits diverge in a new environment.     

Needle morphological evidence of the homoploid hybrid origin of Pinus densata based on analysis of artificial hybrids and the putative parents,Pinus tabuliformis and Pinus yunnanensis

Genetic analyses indicate that Pinus densata is a natural homoploid hybrid originating from Pinus tabuliformis and Pinus yunnanensis. Needle morphological and anatomical features show relative species stability and can be used to identify coniferous species. Comparative analyses of these needle characteristics and phenotypic differences between the artificial hybrids, P. densata, and parental species can be used to determine the genetic and phenotypic evolutionary consequences of natural hybridization. Twelve artificial hybrid families, the two parental species, and P. densata were seeded in a high‐altitude habitat in Linzhi, Tibet. The needles of artificial hybrids and the three pine species were collected, and 24 needle morphological and anatomical traits were analyzed. Based on these results, variations in 10 needle traits among artificial hybrid families and 22 traits among species and artificial hybrids were predicted and found to be under moderate genetic control. Nineteen needle traits in artificial hybrids were similar to those in P. densata and between the two parental species, P. tabuliformis and P. yunnanensis. The ratio of plants with three needle clusters in artificial hybrids was 22.92%, which was very similar to P. densata. The eight needle traits (needle length, the mean number of stomata in sections 2 mm in length of the convex and flat sides of the needle, mean stomatal density, mesophyll/vascular bundle area ratio, mesophyll/resin canal area ratio, mesophyll/(resin canals and vascular bundles) area ratio, vascular bundle/resin canal area ratio) relative to physiological adaptability were similar to the artificial hybrids and P. densata. The similar needle features between the artificial hybrids and P. densata could be used to verify the homoploid hybrid origin of P. densata and helps to better understand of the hybridization roles in adaptation and speciation in plants.     

Seagrass sediments reveal the long‐term deterioration of an estuarine ecosystem

The study of a Posidonia australis sediment archive has provided a record of ecosystem dynamics and processes over the last 600 years in Oyster Harbour (SW Australia). Ecosystem shifts are a widespread phenomenon in coastal areas, and this study identifies baseline conditions and the time‐course of ecological change (cycles, trends, resilience and thresholds of ecosystem change) under environmental stress in seagrass‐dominated ecosystem. The shifts in the concentrations of chemical elements, carbonates, sediments <0.125 mm and stable carbon isotope signatures (δ¹³C) of the organic matter were detected between 1850s and 1920s, whereas the shift detected in P concentration occurred several decades later (1960s). The first degradation phase (1850s–1950s) follows the onset of European settlement in Australia and was characterized by a strong increase in sediment accumulation rates and fine‐grained particles, driven primarily by enhanced run‐off due to land clearance and agriculture in the catchment. About 80% of total seagrass area at Oyster Harbour was lost during the second phase of environmental degradation (1960s until present). The sharp increase in P concentration and the increasing contribution of algae and terrestrial inputs into the sedimentary organic matter pool around 1960s provides compelling evidence of the documented eutrophication of the estuary and the subsequent loss of seagrass meadows. The results presented demonstrate the power of seagrass sedimentary archives to reconstruct the trajectories of anthropogenic pressures on estuarine ecosystem and the associated regime shifts, which can be used to improve the capacity of scientists and environmental managers to understand, predict and better manage ecological change in these ecosystems.