Ocean acidification affects competition for space: projections of community structure using cellular automata

Historical ecological datasets from a coastal marine community of crustose coralline algae (CCA) enabled the documentation of ecological changes in this community over 30 years in the Northeast Pacific. Data on competitive interactions obtained from field surveys showed concordance between the 1980s and 2013, yet also revealed a reduction in how strongly species interact. Here, we extend these empirical findings with a cellular automaton model to forecast ecological dynamics. Our model suggests the emergence of a new dominant competitor in a global change scenario, with a reduced role of herbivory pressure, or trophic control, in regulating competition among CCA. Ocean acidification, due to its energetic demands, may now instead play this role in mediating competitive interactions and thereby promote species diversity within this guild.     

Temporal patterns in natality and mortality of three threatened antelope species in North Africa: Oryx dammah,Addax nasomaculatus and Nanger dama

Long‐term population studies on large mammals are rare. Here, we have examined the threatened scimitar‐horned oryx, addax and dama gazelle's populations over the last 20 years in Bou Hedma National Park. Using monthly count data of the three studied species collected since 1995, we examined their population trends. Using autocorrelation analyses, we discovered endogenous natural cyclical fluctuations in the numbers of each species, with a periodicity of approximately 3 years. For all three studied species which seem to be opportunistic breeders, births and deaths occurred throughout the year, although with notable seasonality. By means of cross‐correlation, we discovered that during the first 7 years for which data were available, addax numbers were positively correlated with those of dama and inversely correlated with numbers of oryx. This pattern reversed during the following 4‐year period. The number of oryx was negatively correlated with dama during the first 4 years and then became positively correlated during the subsequent 7‐year period. Thus, we draw attention to difference in response to environmental and anthropogenic factors. Incorporating fundamental long‐term population data into developing management approaches, especially for potentially competitive species, is vital for their future long‐term survival and the success of conservation actions.     

Differences in seasonal survival suggest species‐specific reactions to climate change in two sympatric bat species

Long‐lived animals with a low annual reproductive output need a long time to recover from population crashes and are, thus, likely to face high extinction risk, if the current global environmental change will increase mortality rates. To aid conservation of those species, knowledge on the variability of mortality rates is essential. Unfortunately, however, individual‐based multiyear data sets that are required for that have only rarely been collected for free‐ranging long‐lived mammals. Here, we used a five‐year data set comprising activity data of 1,445 RFID‐tagged individuals of two long‐lived temperate zone bat species, Natterer's bats (Myotis nattereri) and Daubenton's bats (Myotis daubentonii), at their joint hibernaculum. Both species are listed as being of high conservation interest by the European Habitats Directive. Applying mixed‐effects logistic regression, we explored seasonal survival differences in these two species which differ in foraging strategy and phenology. In both species, survival over the first winter of an individual's life was much lower than survival over subsequent winters. Focussing on adults only, seasonal survival patterns were largely consistent with higher winter and lower summer survival but varied in its level across years in both species. Our analyses, furthermore, highlight the importance of species‐specific time periods for survival. Daubenton's bats showed a much stronger difference in survival between the two seasons than Natterer's bats. In one exceptional winter, the population of Natterer's bats crashed, while the survival of Daubenton's bats declined only moderately. While our results confirm the general seasonal survival pattern typical for hibernating mammals with higher winter than summer survival, they also show that this pattern can be reversed under particular conditions. Overall, our study points toward a high importance of specific time periods for population dynamics and suggests species‐, population‐, and age class‐specific responses to global climate change.     

Temporal dynamics of marginal steppic vegetation over a 26‐year period of substantial environmental change

Questions: (1) Is climate a strong driver of vegetation dynamics, including interannual variation, in a range margin steppic community? (2) Are there long‐term trends in cover and species richness in this community, and are these consistent across species groups and species within groups? (3) Can long‐term trends in plant community data be related to variation in local climate over the last three decades? Location: A range margin steppic grassland community in central Germany. Methods: Cover, number and size of all individuals of all plant species present in three permanent 1‐m² plots were recorded in spring for 26 years (1980–2005). Climatic data for the study area were used to determine the best climatic predictor for each plant community, functional group and species variable (annual data and interannual variation) using best subsets regression. Results: April and autumn temperature showed the highest correlation with total cover and species richness and with interannual variations of cover and richness. However, key climate drivers differed between the five most abundant species. Similarly, total cover and number and cover of perennials significantly decreased over time, while no trend was found for the cover and number of annuals. However, within functional groups there were also contrasting species‐specific responses. Long‐term temperature increases and high interannual variability in both temperature and precipitation were strongly related to long‐term trends and interannual variations in plant community data. Conclusions: Temporal trends in vegetation were strongly associated with temporal trends in climate at the study site, with key roles for autumn and spring temperature and precipitation. Dynamics of functional groups and species within groups and their relationships to changes in temperature and precipitation reveal complex long‐term and interannual patterns that cannot be inferred from short‐term studies with only one or a few individual species. Our results also highlight that responses detected at the functional group level may mask contrasting responses within functional groups. We discuss the implications of these findings for attempts to predict the future response of biodiversity to climate change.     

Quantifying variation in forest disturbance,and its effects on aboveground biomass dynamics,across the eastern United States

The role of tree mortality in the global carbon balance is complicated by strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity that arises from the stochastic nature of carbon loss through disturbance. Characterizing spatio‐temporal variation in mortality (including disturbance) and its effects on forest and carbon dynamics is thus essential to understanding the current global forest carbon sink, and to predicting how it will change in future. We analyzed forest inventory data from the eastern United States to estimate plot‐level variation in mortality (relative to a long‐term background rate for individual trees) for nine distinct forest regions. Disturbances that produced at least a fourfold increase in tree mortality over an approximately 5 year interval were observed in 1–5% of plots in each forest region. The frequency of disturbance was lowest in the northeast, and increased southwards along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts as fire and hurricane disturbances became progressively more common. Across the central and northern parts of the region, natural disturbances appeared to reflect a diffuse combination of wind, insects, disease, and ice storms. By linking estimated covariation in tree growth and mortality over time with a data‐constrained forest dynamics model, we simulated the implications of stochastic variation in mortality for long‐term aboveground biomass changes across the eastern United States. A geographic gradient in disturbance frequency induced notable differences in biomass dynamics between the least‐ and most‐disturbed regions, with variation in mortality causing the latter to undergo considerably stronger fluctuations in aboveground stand biomass over time. Moreover, regional simulations showed that a given long‐term increase in mean mortality rates would support greater aboveground biomass when expressed through disturbance effects compared with background mortality, particularly for early‐successional species. The effects of increased tree mortality on carbon stocks and forest composition may thus depend partly on whether future mortality increases are chronic or episodic in nature.     

Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s)

Long‐term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long‐term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long‐term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64–90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black‐billed capercaillie.     

Future warming and acidification effects on anti‐fouling and anti‐herbivory traits of the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus (Phaeophyceae)

Human‐induced ocean warming and acidification have received increasing attention over the past decade and are considered to have substantial consequences for a broad range of marine species and their interactions. Understanding how these interactions shift in response to climate change is particularly important with regard to foundation species, such as the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus. This macroalga represents the dominant habitat former on coastal rocky substrata of the Baltic Sea, fulfilling functions essential for the entire benthic community. Its ability to withstand extensive fouling and herbivory regulates the associated community and ecosystem dynamics. This study tested the interactive effects of future warming, acidification, and seasonality on the interactions of a marine macroalga with potential foulers and consumers. F. vesiculosus rockweeds were exposed to different combinations of conditions predicted regionally for the year 2100 (+?5°C, +?700 μatm CO₂) using multifactorial long‐term experiments in novel outdoor benthic mesocosms (“Benthocosms”) over 9–12‐week periods in four seasons. Possible shifts in the macroalgal susceptibility to fouling and consumption were tested using consecutive bioassays. Algal susceptibility to fouling and grazing varied substantially among seasons and between treatments. In all seasons, warming predominantly affected anti‐fouling and anti‐herbivory interactions while acidification had a subtle nonsignificant influence. Interestingly, anti‐microfouling activity was highest during winter under warming, while anti‐macrofouling and anti‐herbivory activities were highest in the summer under warming. These contrasting findings indicate that seasonal changes in anti‐fouling and anti‐herbivory traits may interact with ocean warming in altering F. vesiculosus community composition in the future.     

Shrub persistence and increased grass mortality in response to drought in dryland systems

Droughts in the southwest United States have led to major forest and grassland die‐off events in recent decades, suggesting plant community and ecosystem shifts are imminent as native perennial grass populations are replaced by shrub‐ and invasive plant‐dominated systems. These patterns are similar to those observed in arid and semiarid systems around the globe, but our ability to predict which species will experience increased drought‐induced mortality in response to climate change remains limited. We investigated meteorological drought‐induced mortality of nine dominant plant species in the Colorado Plateau Desert by experimentally imposing a year‐round 35% precipitation reduction for eight continuous years. We distributed experimental plots across numerous plant, soil, and parent material types, resulting in 40 distinct sites across a 4,500 km² region of the Colorado Plateau Desert. For all 8 years, we tracked c. 400 individual plants and evaluated mortality responses to treatments within and across species, and through time. We also examined the influence of abiotic and biotic site factors in driving mortality responses. Overall, high mortality trends were driven by dominant grass species, including Achnatherum hymenoides, Pleuraphis jamesii, and Sporobolus cryptandrus. Responses varied widely from year to year and dominant shrub species were generally resistant to meteorological drought, likely due to their ability to access deeper soil water. Importantly, mortality increased in the presence of invasive species regardless of treatment, and native plant die‐off occurred even under ambient conditions, suggesting that recent climate changes are already negatively impacting dominant species in these systems. Results from this long‐term drought experiment suggest major shifts in community composition and, as a result, ecosystem function. Patterns also show that, across multiple soil and plant community types, native perennial grass species may be replaced by shrubs and invasive annuals in the Colorado Plateau Desert.     

Dissecting spatiotemporal patterns of functional diversity through the lens of Darwin's naturalization conundrum

Darwin's naturalization conundrum describes the paradigm that community assembly is regulated by two opposing processes, environmental filtering and competitive interactions, which predict both similarity and distinctiveness of species to be important for establishment. Our goal is to use long‐term, large‐scale, and high‐resolution temporal data to examine diversity patterns over time and assess whether environmental filtering or competition plays a larger role in regulating community assembly processes. We evaluated Darwin's naturalization conundrum and how functional diversity has changed in the Laurentian Great Lakes fish community from 1870 to 2010, which has experienced frequent introductions of non‐native species and extirpations of native species. We analyzed how functional diversity has changed over time by decade from 1870 to 2010 at three spatial scales (regional, lake, and habitat) to account for potential noninteractions between species at the regional and lake level. We also determined which process, environmental filtering or competitive interactions, is more important in regulating community assembly and maintenance by comparing observed patterns to what we would expect in the absence of an ecological mechanism. With the exception of one community, all analyses show that functional diversity and species richness has increased over time and that environmental filtering regulates community assembly at the regional level. When examining functional diversity at the lake and habitat level, the regulating processes become more context dependent. This study is the first to examine diversity patterns and Darwin's conundrum by integrating long‐term, large‐scale, and high‐resolution temporal data at multiple spatial scales. Our results confirm that Darwin's conundrum is highly context dependent.     

The combined effects of a long‐term experimental drought and an extreme drought on the use of plant‐water sources in a Mediterranean forest

Vegetation in water‐limited ecosystems relies strongly on access to deep water reserves to withstand dry periods. Most of these ecosystems have shallow soils over deep groundwater reserves. Understanding the functioning and functional plasticity of species‐specific root systems and the patterns of or differences in the use of water sources under more frequent or intense droughts is therefore necessary to properly predict the responses of seasonally dry ecosystems to future climate. We used stable isotopes to investigate the seasonal patterns of water uptake by a sclerophyll forest on sloped terrain with shallow soils. We assessed the effect of a long‐term experimental drought (12 years) and the added impact of an extreme natural drought that produced widespread tree mortality and crown defoliation. The dominant species, Quercus ilex, Arbutus unedo and Phillyrea latifolia, all have dimorphic root systems enabling them to access different water sources in space and time. The plants extracted water mainly from the soil in the cold and wet seasons but increased their use of groundwater during the summer drought. Interestingly, the plants subjected to the long‐term experimental drought shifted water uptake toward deeper (10–35 cm) soil layers during the wet season and reduced groundwater uptake in summer, indicating plasticity in the functional distribution of fine roots that dampened the effect of our experimental drought over the long term. An extreme drought in 2011, however, further reduced the contribution of deep soil layers and groundwater to transpiration, which resulted in greater crown defoliation in the drought‐affected plants. This study suggests that extreme droughts aggravate moderate but persistent drier conditions (simulated by our manipulation) and may lead to the depletion of water from groundwater reservoirs and weathered bedrock, threatening the preservation of these Mediterranean ecosystems in their current structures and compositions.     

Ecological change predicts population dynamics and genetic diversity over 120 000 years

While ecological effects on short‐term population dynamics are well understood, their effects over millennia are difficult to demonstrate and convincing evidence is scant. Using coalescent methods, we analysed past population dynamics of three lizard species (Psammodromus hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, P. occidentalis) and linked the results with climate change data covering the same temporal horizon (120 000 years). An increase in population size over time was observed in two species, and in P. occidentalis, no change was observed. Temporal changes in temperature seasonality and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were congruent with changes in population dynamics observed for the three species and both variables affected population density, either directly or indirectly (via a life‐history trait). These results constitute the first solid link between ecological change and long‐term population dynamics. The results moreover suggest that ecological change leaves genetic signatures that can be retrospectively traced, providing evidence that ecological change is a crucial driver of genetic diversity and speciation.     

Plant diversity,species turnover and shifts in functional traits in coastal dune vegetation: Results from permanent plots over a 52‐year period

Question: What is the relationship between plant diversity and species turnover in coastal dune vegetation plots? How is the long‐term change in species composition of vegetation plots related to shifts in functional traits, and what does it tell us about the dominant processes? Location: Coastal dunes, the Netherlands. Methods: Our data set comprised 52 years of vegetation data from 35 permanent plots in grassland/scrub/woodland vegetation. Vegetation dynamics were described in terms of changes in species composition and abundance, and shifts in 13 functional traits related to resources capture and forage quality, regeneration and dispersal. Results: Species turnover in the plots was high, because of local extinction and colonization. Species‐rich plots were more stable in terms of species abundance and composition compared with species‐poor plots. Over time, the plots converged with respect to their abiotic conditions, as reflected by Ellenberg indicator values – indicating that the prevailing process was succession. The high species turnover reflected high invasibility: accordingly, the relative importance of annuals increased. Most newcomer annuals, however, were competitive generalists of little conservation value. The functional trait analysis allowed us to unravel the complexity of effects of disturbances and succession, and yielded information on the processes driving the observed vegetation dynamics. Conclusions: In this study, small‐scale species turnover was negatively related to species diversity, indicating more stability in species‐rich communities. Regarding shifts in trait diversity, unifying filters appeared to be more dominant than diversifying filters. Counteracting this homogenization process poses a challenge for nature management.     

Local adaptation,genetic divergence,and experimental selection in a foundation grass across the US Great Plains’ climate gradient

Many prior studies have uncovered evidence for local adaptation using reciprocal transplant experiments. However, these studies are rarely conducted for a long enough time to observe succession and competitive dynamics in a community context, limiting inferences for long‐lived species. Furthermore, the genetic basis of local adaptation and genetic associations with climate has rarely been identified. Here, we report on a long‐term (6‐year) experiment conducted under natural conditions focused on Andropogon gerardii, the dominant grass of the North American Great Plains tallgrass ecosystem. We focus on this foundation grass that comprises 80% of tallgrass prairie biomass and is widely used in 20,000 km² of restoration. Specifically, we asked the following questions: (a) Whether ecotypes are locally adapted to regional climate in realistic ecological communities. (b) Does adaptive genetic variation underpin divergent phenotypes across the climate gradient? (c) Is there evidence of local adaptation if the plants are exposed to competition among ecotypes in mixed ecotype plots? Finally, (d) are local adaptation and genetic divergence related to climate? Reciprocal gardens were planted with 3 regional ecotypes (originating from dry, mesic, wet climate sources) of Andropogon gerardii across a precipitation gradient (500–1,200 mm/year) in the US Great Plains. We demonstrate local adaptation and differentiation of ecotypes in wet and dry environments. Surprisingly, the apparent generalist mesic ecotype performed comparably under all rainfall conditions. Ecotype performance was underpinned by differences in neutral diversity and candidate genes corroborating strong differences among ecotypes. Ecotype differentiation was related to climate, primarily rainfall. Without long‐term studies, wrong conclusions would have been reached based on the first two years. Further, restoring prairies with climate‐matched ecotypes is critical to future ecology, conservation, and sustainability under climate change.     

From facilitation to competition: temperature‐driven shift in dominant plant interactions affects population dynamics in seminatural grasslands

Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate‐related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co‐occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad‐scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population‐level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants.     

Hybrid dynamics in a species group of swallowtail butterflies

Hybrid zones provide unique natural laboratories for studying mechanisms of evolution. But identification and classification of hybrid individuals (F1, F2, backcross, etc.) can be complicated by real population changes over time as well as by use of different marker types, both of which challenge documentation of hybrid dynamics. Here, we use multiple genetic markers (mitochondrial DNA, microsatellites and genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms) to re‐examine population structure in a hybrid zone between two species of swallowtail butterflies in western Canada, Papilio machaon and P. zelicaon. Our aim was to test whether their hybrid dynamics remain the same as found 30 years ago using morphology and allozymes, and we compared different genetic data sets as well as alternative hybrid identification and classification methods. Overall, we found high differentiation between the two parental species, corroborating previous research from the 1980s. We identified fewer hybrid individuals in the main zone of hybridization in recent years, but this finding depended on the genetic markers considered. Comparison of methods with simulated data sets generated from our data showed that single nucleotide polymorphisms were more powerful than microsatellites for both hybrid identification and classification. Moreover, substantial variation among comparisons underlined the value of multiple markers and methods for documenting evolutionarily dynamic systems.     

Acclimation to ocean acidification during long‐term CO2 exposure in the cold‐water coral Lophelia pertusa

Ocean acidity has increased by 30% since preindustrial times due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ and is projected to rise by another 120% before 2100 if CO₂ emissions continue at current rates. Ocean acidification is expected to have wide‐ranging impacts on marine life, including reduced growth and net erosion of coral reefs. Our present understanding of the impacts of ocean acidification on marine life, however, relies heavily on results from short‐term CO₂ perturbation studies. Here, we present results from the first long‐term CO₂ perturbation study on the dominant reef‐building cold‐water coral Lophelia pertusa and relate them to results from a short‐term study to compare the effect of exposure time on the coral's responses. Short‐term (1 week) high CO₂ exposure resulted in a decline of calcification by 26–29% for a pH decrease of 0.1 units and net dissolution of calcium carbonate. In contrast, L. pertusa was capable to acclimate to acidified conditions in long‐term (6 months) incubations, leading to even slightly enhanced rates of calcification. Net growth is sustained even in waters sub‐saturated with respect to aragonite. Acclimation to seawater acidification did not cause a measurable increase in metabolic rates. This is the first evidence of successful acclimation in a coral species to ocean acidification, emphasizing the general need for long‐term incubations in ocean acidification research. To conclude on the sensitivity of cold‐water coral reefs to future ocean acidification further ecophysiological studies are necessary which should also encompass the role of food availability and rising temperatures.     

Conspecific density dependence and community structure: Insights from 11 years of monitoring in an old‐growth temperate forest in Northeast China

Forest community structure may be influenced by seedling density dependence, however, the effect is loosely coupled with population dynamics and diversity in the short term. In the long term the strength of conspecific density dependence may fluctuate over time because of seedling abundance, yet few long‐term studies exist. Based on 11 years of seedling census data and tree census data from a 25‐ha temperate forest plot in Northeast China, we used generalized linear mixed models to test the relative effects of local neighborhood density and abiotic factors on seedling density and seedling survival. Spatial point pattern analysis was used to determine if spatial patterns of saplings and juveniles, in relation to conspecific adults, were in accordance with patterns uncovered by conspecific negative density dependence at the seedling stage. Our long‐term results showed that seedling density was mainly positively affected by conspecific density, suggesting dispersal limitation of seedling development. The probability of seedling survival significantly decreased over 1 year with increasing conspecific density, indicating conspecific negative density dependence in seedling establishment. Although there was variation in conspecific negative density dependence at the seedling stage among species and across years, a dispersed pattern of conspecific saplings relative to conspecific adults at the local scale (<10 m) was observed in four of the 11 species examined. Overall, sapling spatial patterns were consistent with the impacts of conspecific density on seedling dynamics, which suggests that conspecific negative density dependence is persistent over the long term. From the long‐term perspective, conspecific density dependence is an important driver of species coexistence in temperate forests.     

When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change

Globally, long‐term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long‐term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002–2014) of citizen science‐driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75–0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human‐modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high‐quality forest patches is essential for long‐term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long‐term citizen science monitoring data unfolds the complex relationships between the environmental dynamics and range fluctuations of this food nomadic species.     

Combining field experiments and individual-based modeling to identify the dynamically relevant organizational scale in a field system

Community ecologists continually strive to build analytical models that realistically describe long‐term dynamics of the systems they study. A key step in this process is identifying which details are relevant for predicting dynamics. Currently, this remains a limiting step in development of analytical theory because experimental field ecology, which provides the key empirical insight, and theoretical ecology, which translates empirical knowledge into analytical theory, remain weakly linked. I illustrate how an individual‐based computational model of species interactions is a useful way to bridge the gulf between empirical research and theory development. I built a computational model that reproduced key natural history and biological detail of an old‐field interaction web composed of a predator species, a herbivore species and two plant groups that had been the subject of extensive previous field research. I examined, using simulation experiments, how individual behavior of herbivores in response to changing resource and predator abundance scaled to long‐term population‐level and community‐level dynamics. The simulation experiments revealed that the long‐term community dynamics could be highly predictable because of two counterintuitive reasons. First, seasonality was a strong forcing variable on the system that removed the possibility of serial dependence in population abundance over time. Second, because of seasonality, short‐term behavioral responses of herbivores played a much stronger role in shaping community structure than longer‐term processes such as density responses. So, simply knowing the short‐term responses of herbivores at the evolutionary ecological level was sufficient to forecast the long‐term outcome of experimental manipulations. This study shows that an individual‐based model, once it is calibrated to the real‐world field system, can provide key insight into the biological detail that analytical models should include to predict long‐term dynamics.     

Local interactions drive size dependent space competition between coral and crustose coralline algae

For many species, the outcome of competition for space in homogeneous habitats depends upon relative rates of growth and overgrowth. Size dependence in competition occurs when this balance shifts due to the growth of one or both species. For example, the ability of coral to compete with certain species of crustose coralline algae (CCA) may depend on whether coral colonies are large enough to avoid being overgrown. Spatially implicit models suggest size refuges from competition can improve the persistence of species with a vulnerable life stage. We use spatially explicit simulation models to explore size dependence in competition between coral and competitively dominant CCA in well lit habitat. We determine what conditions allow coral to use size refuges and whether refuges improve the recovery of coral after disturbance. Local interactions in explicit space prevent the maturation of coral into size refuges unless coral grows more rapidly than CCA or coral colonies are allowed to fuse, and mortality mechanisms can limit long‐term persistence even if the refuge is achieved. We contrast results with analogous differential equation models, with and without an explicit maturation delay, to demonstrate how the predicted outcome of competition is frequently reversed when local interactions and individual‐based dynamics are included in models of size‐dependent competition.