Concordant population dynamics of Lepidoptera herbivores in a forest ecosystem

It is frequently assumed that population fluctuations are largely independent within a community of trophically‐similar species, but this need not be so. If population fluctuations are partly synchronized or concordant, this will produce interannual variability in the community's aggregate abundance and generate temporal variance in ecosystem structure. We studied the community of Lepidoptera inhabiting northern hardwood forests in New Hampshire, USA, to evaluate the hypothesis that fluctuations in consumer communities can arise from concordant dynamics of constituent populations. Interannual comparisons of moth abundances for >75 species sampled at three sites over four years revealed that concordant dynamics contribute strongly to interannual variability in the abundance of consumers. A conspicuous decline in community abundance from 2004 to 2005 was the result of predominantly negative population growth rates of the component species, while an increase in community abundance from 2006 to 2007 was the result of predominantly positive population growth rates. Population dynamics most strongly linked species that feed in the early season (perhaps due to shared responses to climatic effects), but not species that might share natural enemies or host plants. The observed concordant dynamics introduced conspicuous temporal variation in the abundance of primary consumers relative to plants and secondary consumers, thereby altering the forest's trophic structure. Such variance in the aggregate abundance of forest primary consumers could generate time‐lagged fluctuations in abundances of secondary consumers and will generally have important consequences for ecosystem properties and processes that are nonlinear functions of consumer abundance, such as plant community structure and nutrient cycling.     

Environmental heterogeneity and biotic interactions mediate climate impacts on tropical forest regeneration

Predicting the fate of tropical forests under a changing climate requires understanding species responses to climatic variability and extremes. Seedlings may be particularly vulnerable to climatic stress given low stored resources and undeveloped roots; they also portend the potential effects of climate change on future forest composition. Here we use data for ca. 50,000 tropical seedlings representing 25 woody species to assess (i) the effects of interannual variation in rainfall and solar radiation between 2007 and 2016 on seedling survival over 9 years in a subtropical forest; and (ii) how spatial heterogeneity in three environmental factors—soil moisture, understory light, and conspecific neighborhood density—modulate these responses. Community‐wide seedling survival was not sensitive to interannual rainfall variability but interspecific variation in these responses was large, overwhelming the average community response. In contrast, community‐wide responses to solar radiation were predominantly positive. Spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture and conspecific density were the predominant and most consistent drivers of seedling survival, with the majority of species exhibiting greater survival at low conspecific densities and positive or nonlinear responses to soil moisture. This environmental heterogeneity modulated impacts of rainfall and solar radiation. Negative conspecific effects were amplified during rainy years and at dry sites, whereas the positive effects of radiation on survival were more pronounced for seedlings existing at high understory light levels. These results demonstrate that environmental heterogeneity is not only the main driver of seedling survival in this forest but also plays a central role in buffering or exacerbating impacts of climate fluctuations on forest regeneration. Since seedlings represent a key bottleneck in the demographic cycle of trees, efforts to predict the long‐term effects of a changing climate on tropical forests must take into account this environmental heterogeneity and how its effects on regeneration dynamics play out in long‐term stand dynamics.     

Distance decay of similarity,effects of environmental noise and ecological heterogeneity among species in the spatio‐temporal dynamics of a dispersal‐limited community

The joint spatial and temporal fluctuations in community structure may be due to dispersal, variation in environmental conditions, ecological heterogeneity among species and demographic stochasticity. These factors are not mutually exclusive, and their relative contribution towards shaping species abundance distributions and in causing species fluctuations have been hard to disentangle. To better understand community dynamics when the exchange of individuals between localities is very low, we studied the dynamics of the freshwater zooplankton communities in 17 lakes located in independent catchment areas, sampled at end of summer from 2002 to 2008 in Norway. We analysed the joint spatial and temporal fluctuations in the community structure by fitting the two‐dimensional Poisson lognormal model under a two‐stage sampling scheme. We partitioned the variance of the distribution of log abundance for a random species at a random time and location into components of demographic stochasticity, ecological heterogeneity among species, and independent environmental noise components for the different species. Non‐neutral mechanisms such as ecological heterogeneity among species (20%) and spatiotemporal variation in the environment (75%) explained the majority of the variance in log abundances. Overdispersion relative to Poisson sampling and demographic stochasticity had a small contribution to the variance (5%). Among a set of environmental variables, lake acidity was the environmental variable that was most strongly related to decay of community similarity in space and time.     

Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth,but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis

Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range‐wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., “prevailing” environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year‐to‐year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year‐to‐year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short‐term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short‐ and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.     

Synchrony in small mammal community dynamics across a forested landscape

Long‐term studies at local scales indicate that fluctuations in abundance among trophically similar species are often temporally synchronized. Complementary studies on synchrony across larger spatial extents are less common, as are studies that investigate the subsequent impacts on community dynamics across the landscape. We investigate the impact of species population fluctuations on concordance in community dynamics for the small mammal fauna of the White Mountain National Forest, USA. Hierarchical open population models, which account for imperfect detection, were used to model abundance of the most common species at 108 sites over a three year period. Most species displayed individualistic responses of abundance to forest type and physiographic characteristics. However, among species, we found marked synchrony in population fluctuations across years, regardless of landscape affinities or trophic level. Across the region, this population synchrony led to high within‐year concordance of community composition and aggregate properties (e.g. richness and diversity) independent of forest type and low among‐year similarity in communities, even for years with similar species richness. Results suggest that extrinsic factors primarily drive abundance fluctuations and subsequently community dynamics, although local community assembly may be modified by species dispersal abilities and biotic interactions. Concordant community dynamics across space and over time may impact the stability of regional food webs and ecosystem functions.     

A predictive framework to assess spatio‐temporal variability of infestations by the European spruce bark beetle

Natural disturbances are key factors for the development of forest ecosystems. In forests of central Europe and Scandinavia, the European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most devastating biotic disturbance agent in Norway spruce Picea abies, but our understanding of the factors determining its spatio‐temporal dynamics is still quite limited. To quantify the drivers of bark beetle dynamics, we analyzed a survey dataset with annual resolution that covers 17 yr and 469 forest districts (10 860 km² of forest area) all over Switzerland. We used Poisson log‐normal models in a Bayesian framework to analyze the spatio‐temporal dynamics of bark beetle infestation spots at the forest district level. Bark beetle infestations increased with increasing heat sum (> 8.3°C), volume of standing Norway spruce stock, and the number of infestation spots of the previous year. Precipitation tended to slightly affect the risk of bark beetle infestations. Two major storm events further increased the spatio‐temporal variability of bark beetle infestations. Spruce abundance, storm damage and temperature are known to be important factors influencing the population dynamics of the European spruce bark beetle. Our study is the first to quantify the combined effects of spruce abundance and heat sum, whereby the heat sum turned out to be the most important and consistent predictor. Because our study area encompasses large ecological and climatological gradients, our model is likely to be applicable to Norway spruce forests in other regions of central Europe and Scandinavia.     

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long‐term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The ‘Moran effect’ predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large‐scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high‐Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8–324 km apart suggested that density‐dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one ‘continental’ reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density‐dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift—with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity—led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.     

黄土高原腹地人工林下草本层群落构建机制

群落构建机制是生态学研究的核心论题。生态位理论和中性理论是阐明群落构建的两种主要理论, 但这两种理论分别强调的环境过滤和扩散限制对群落构建的影响尚存争议。该研究以黄土高原人工林下草本层群落为研究对象, 将群落物种组成数据与地理空间、气候、地形以及生物因子相结合, 运用随机森林模型(RF)和基于距离矩阵的多元回归方法(MRM), 探究了各个因子的重要性, 并通过邻体主坐标矩阵(PCNM)和基于距离的冗余分析(db-RDA)分别筛选显著的空间结构和环境因子, 最后结合筛选出的PCNM特征值和环境变量进行变差分解。研究结果显示: 1)林下草本层群落组成相似性随地理距离和生境差异的增加而减小。2)地理距离与生境差异共同解释了群落组成相似性变化的47.8%。其中, 空间因子和环境因子的独立解释率分别为14.1%和9.8%, 两者的联合解释率为23.9%。3)地理距离和年降水量是引起研究区内物种组成变化的关键因子, 且地理距离的重要性大于年降水量。在黄土高原腹地, 扩散限制与环境过滤共同主导了人工林下草本层群落的构建过程。     

Non‐neutrality in forest communities: evolutionary and ecological determinants of tree species abundance distributions

The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography provides a promising framework that can be used to integrate stochastic and ecological processes operating in ecological communities. Based on a mechanistic non‐neutral model that incorporates density‐dependent mortality, we evaluated the deviation from a neutral pattern in tree species abundance distributions and explored the signatures of historical and ecological processes that have shaped forest biomes. We compiled a dataset documenting species abundance distributions in 1168 plots encompassing 16 973 tree species across tropical, temperate, and boreal forests. We tested whether deviations from neutrality of species abundance distributions vary with climatic and historical conditions, and whether these patterns differ among regions. Non‐neutrality in species abundance distributions was ubiquitous in tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, and regional differences in patterns of non‐neutrality were significant between biomes. Species abundance evenness/unevenness caused by negative density‐dependent or abiotic filtering effects had no clear macro‐scale climatic drivers, although temperature was non‐linearly correlated with species abundance unevenness on a global scale. These findings were not significantly biased by heterogeneity of plot data (the differences of plot area, measurement size, species richness, and the number of individuals sampled). Therefore, our results suggest that environmental filtering is not universally increasing from warm tropical to cold boreal forests, but might affect differently tree species assembly between and within biomes. Ecological processes generating particularly dominant species in local communities might be idiosyncratic or region‐specific and may be associated with geography and climate. Our study illustrates that stochastic dynamical models enable the analysis of the interplay of historical and ecological processes that influence community assemblies and the dynamics of biodiversity.     

Plant functional traits improve diversity‐based predictions of temporal stability of grassland productivity

Synthesis The temporal stability of plant production is greater in communities with high than low species richness, but stability also may depend on species abundances and growth‐related traits. Annual precipitation varied by greater than a factor of three over 11 years in central Texas, USA leading to large variation in production. Stability was greatest in communities that were not dominated by few species and in which dominant species rooted shallowly, had dense leaves, or responded to the wettest year with a minimal increase in production. Stability may depend as much on species abundances and functional traits as on species richness alone. Aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) varies in response to temporal fluctuations in weather. Temporal stability of community ANPP may be increased by increasing plant species richness, but stability often varies at a given richness level implying a dependence on abundances and functional properties of member species. We measured stability in ANPP during 11 years in field plots (Texas, USA) in which we varied the richness and relative abundances of perennial grassland species at planting. We sought to identify species abundance patterns and functional traits linked to the acquisition and processing of essential resources that could be used to improve richness‐based predictions of community stability. We postulated that community stability would correlate with abundance‐weighted indices of traits that influence plant responses to environmental variation. Annual precipitation varied by a factor of three leading to large inter‐annual variation in ANPP. Regression functions with planted and realized richness (species with > 1% of community ANPP during the final four years) explained 32% and 25% of the variance in stability, respectively. Regression models that included richness plus the fraction of community ANPP produced by the two most abundant species in combination with abundance‐weighted values of either the fraction of sampled root biomass at 20–45 cm depth, leaf dry matter content (LDMC), or response to greater‐than‐average precipitation of plants grown in monocultures explained 58–69% (planted richness) and 58–64% (realized richness) of the variance in stability. Stability was greatest in communities that were not strongly dominated by only two species and in which plants rooted shallowly, had high values of LDMC, or responded to the wettest year with a minimal increase in ANPP. Our results indicate that the temporal stability of grassland ANPP may depend as much on species abundances and functional traits linked to plant responses to precipitation variability as on species richness alone.     

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non‐additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single‐factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best‐fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change.     

Larval dispersal dampens population fluctuation and shapes the interspecific spatial distribution patterns of rocky intertidal gastropods

Many marine benthic invertebrates pass through a planktonic larval stage whereas others spend their entire lifetimes in benthic habitats. Recent studies indicate that non‐planktonic species show relatively greater fine‐scale patchiness than do planktonic species, but the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. One hypothesis for such a difference is that larval dispersal enhances the connectivity of populations and buffers population fluctuations and reduces local extinction risk, consequently increasing patch occupancy rate and decreasing spatial patchiness. If this mechanism does indeed play a significant role, then the distribution of non‐planktonic species should be more aggregated – both temporally and spatially – than the distribution of species with a planktonic larval stage. To test this prediction, we compared 1) both the spatial and the temporal abundance–occupancy relationships and 2) both the spatial and the temporal mean–variance relationships of population size across species of rocky intertidal gastropods with differing dispersive traits from the Pacific coast of Japan. We found that, compared to planktonic species, non‐planktonic species exhibited 1) a smaller occupancy rate for any given level of mean population size and 2) greater variations in population size, both spatially and temporally. This suggests that the macroecological patterns observed in this study (i.e. the abundance–occupancy relationships and mean–variance relationships of population size across species) were shaped by the effect of larval dispersal dampening population fluctuation, which works over both space and time. While it has been widely assumed that larval dispersal enhances population fluctuations, larval dispersal may in fact enhance the connectively of populations and buffer population fluctuations and reduce local extinction risks.     

Site fertility drives temporal turnover of vegetation at high latitudes

Experimental evidence shows that site fertility is a key modulator underlying plant community changes under climate change. Communities on fertile sites, with species having fast dynamics, have been found to react more strongly to climate change than communities on infertile sites with slow dynamics. However, it is still unclear whether this generally applies to high‐latitude plant communities in natural environments at broad spatial scales. We tested a hypothesis that vegetation of fertile sites experiences greater changes over several decades and thus would be more responsive under contemporary climate change compared to infertile sites that are expected to show more resistance. We resurveyed understorey communities (vascular plants, bryophytes, and lichens) of four infertile and four fertile forest sites along a latitudinal bioclimatic gradient. Sites had remained outside direct human disturbance. We analyzed the magnitude of temporal community turnover, changes in the abundances of plant morphological groups and strategy classes, and changes in species diversity. In agreement with our hypothesis, temporal turnover of communities was consistently greater on fertile sites compared to infertile sites. However, our results suggest that the larger turnover of fertile communities is not primarily related to the direct effects of climatic warming. Furthermore, community changes in both fertile and infertile sites showed remarkable variation in terms of shares of plant functional groups and strategy classes and measures of species diversity. This further emphasizes the essential role of baseline environmental conditions and nonclimatic drivers underlying vegetation changes. Our results show that site fertility is a key determinant of the overall rate of high‐latitude vegetation changes but the composition of plant communities in different ecological contexts is variously impacted by nonclimatic drivers over time.     

Driving factors and temporal fluctuation of Collembola communities and reproductive mode across forest types and regions

Despite the major role of Collembola in forest soil animal food webs, ecological and evolutionary determinants of their community composition are not well understood. We investigated abundance, community structure, life forms, and reproductive mode of Collembola in four different forest types (coniferous, young managed beech, old managed beech, and unmanaged beech forests) representing different management intensities. Forest types were replicated within three regions across Germany: the Schorfheide‐Chorin, the Hainich, and the Swabian Alb, differing in geology, altitude, and climate. To account for temporal variation, samples were taken twice with an interval of 3 years. To identify driving factors of Collembola community structure, we applied structural equation modeling, including an index of forest management intensity, abiotic and biotic factors such as pH, C‐to‐N ratio of leaf litter, microbial biomass, and fungal‐to‐bacterial ratio. Collembola abundance, biomass, and community composition differed markedly between years, with most pronounced differences in the Schorfheide, the region with the harshest climatic conditions. There, temporal fluctuations of parthenogenetic Collembola were significantly higher than in the other regions. In the year with the more favorable conditions, parthenogenetic species flourished, with their abundance depending mainly on abiotic, density‐independent factors. This is in line with the “Structured Resource Theory of Sexual Reproduction,” stating that parthenogenetic species are favored if density‐independent factors, such as desiccation, frost or flooding, prevail. In contrast, sexual species in the same year were mainly influenced by resource quality‐related factors such as the fungal‐to‐bacterial ratio and the C‐to‐N ratio of leaf litter. The influence of forest management intensity on abundances was low, indicating that disturbance through forest management plays a minor role. Accordingly, differences in community composition were more pronounced between regions than between different forest types, pointing to the importance of regional factors.     

Temporal patterns in Saturnidae (silk moth) and Sphingidae (hawk moth) assemblages in protected forests of central Uganda

Forest‐dependent biodiversity is threatened throughout the tropics by habitat loss and land‐use intensification of the matrix habitats. We resampled historic data on two moth families, known to play central roles in many ecosystem processes, to evaluate temporal changes in species richness and community structure in three protected forests in central Uganda in a rapidly changing matrix. Our results show some significant declines in the moth species richness and the relative abundance and richness of forest‐dependent species over the last 20–40 years. The observed changes in species richness and composition among different forests, ecological types, and moth groups highlight the need to repeatedly monitor biodiversity even within protected and relatively intact forests.     

Neutrality and the response of rare species to environmental variance

Neutral models and differential responses of species to environmental heterogeneity offer complementary explanations of species abundance distribution and dynamics. Under what circumstances one model prevails over the other is still a matter of debate. We show that the decay of similarity over time in rocky seashore assemblages of algae and invertebrates sampled over a period of 16 years was consistent with the predictions of a stochastic model of ecological drift at time scales larger than 2 years, but not at time scales between 3 and 24 months when similarity was quantified with an index that reflected changes in abundance of rare species. A field experiment was performed to examine whether assemblages responded neutrally or non-neutrally to changes in temporal variance of disturbance. The experimental results did not reject neutrality, but identified a positive effect of intermediate levels of environmental heterogeneity on the abundance of rare species. This effect translated into a marked decrease in the characteristic time scale of species turnover, highlighting the role of rare species in driving assemblage dynamics in fluctuating environments.     

Reconciling the influence of global climate phenomena on macrofaunal temporal dynamics at a variety of spatial scales

Determining the relative importance of environmental forces on population dynamics is a fundamental question for ecologists. Growing concern over the ecological effects of climate change emphasizes the importance of defining whether broad-scale environmental forces uniformly act upon local populations (hierarchy theory) or cross-scale interactions influence local responses (multiscale theory). This study analyses 13 years of data on species abundances at six sites within a large harbour to determine the effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Environmental variables both directly and indirectly related to ENSO were observed to be important predictors of the temporal dynamics of abundance in many species, but the observed effects were not consistent across sites or species. While nearly all species were affected by large temporal and spatial scale variability, smaller temporal scale, location-specific environmental variables (such as wind-generated wave exposure and turbidity) were also generally important, increasing the variability explained by our models by up to 25%. As with many other broad-scale variables, generality of response to ENSO is affected by interactions across time and space with smaller scale heterogeneity. This study therefore suggests that the degree of interaction between broad-scale climatic factors, such as ENSO, with smaller scale variability, will determine the consistency of responses over large spatial scales, and control our ability to predict effects of climate change on coastal and estuarine communities.     

Accounting for long‐term directional trends on year‐to‐year synchrony in species fluctuations

What determines the stability of communities under environmental fluctuations remains one of the most debated questions in ecology. Scholars generally agree that the similarity in year‐to‐year fluctuations between species is an important determinant of this stability. Concordant fluctuations in species abundances through time (synchrony) decrease stability while discordance in fluctuations (anti‐synchrony) should stabilize communities. Researchers have interpreted the community‐wide degree of synchrony in temporal fluctuations as the outcome of different processes. However, existing synchrony measures depend not only on year‐to‐year species fluctuations, but also on long‐term directional trends in species composition, for example due to land‐use or climate change. The neglected effect of directional trends in species composition could cause an apparent increase in synchrony that is not due to year‐to‐year fluctuations, as species that simultaneously increase (or decrease) in abundance over time will appear correlated, even if they fluctuate discordantly from year to year. The opposite pattern is also conceivable, where different species show contrasting trends in their abundances, thus overestimating year‐to‐year anti‐synchrony. Therefore, trends in species composition may limit our understanding of potential ecological mechanisms behind synchrony between species. We propose two easily implementable solutions, with corresponding R functions, for testing and accounting for the effect of trends in species composition on overall synchrony. The first approach is based on computing synchrony over the residuals of fitted species trends over time. The second approach, applicable to already existing indices, is based on three‐terms local variance, i.e. computing variance over three‐years‐long, movable windows. We demonstrate these methods using simulations and data from real plant communities under long‐term directional changes, discussing when one approach can be preferred. We show that accounting for long‐term temporal trends is necessary and that separation of effect of trends and year‐to‐year fluctuation provides a better understanding of ecological mechanisms and their connections with ecological theory.     

Inside‐container effects drive mosquito community structure in Brazilian Atlantic forest

Metacommunity theory is a convenient framework in which to investigate how local communities linked by dispersal influence patterns of species distribution and abundance across large spatial scales. For organisms with complex life cycles, such as mosquitoes, different pressures are expected to act on communities due to behavioral and ecological partitioning of life stages. Adult females select habitats for oviposition, and resulting offspring are confined to that habitat until reaching adult stages capable of flight; outside‐container effects (OCE) (i.e., spatial factors) are thus expected to act more strongly on species distributions as a function of adult dispersal capability, which should be limited by geographic distances between sites. However, larval community dynamics within a habitat are influenced by inside‐container effects (ICE), mainly interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics (e.g., through effects of competition and predation). We used a field experiment in a mainland‐island scenario to assess whether environmental, spatial, and temporal factors influence mosquito prey and predator distributions and abundances across spatial scales: within‐site, between‐site, and mainland‐island. We also evaluated whether predator abundances inside containers play a stronger role in shaping mosquito prey community structure than do OCE (e.g., spatial and environmental factors). Temporal influence was more important for predators than for prey mosquito community structure, and the changes in prey mosquito species composition over time appear to be driven by changes in predator abundances. There was a negligible effect of spatial and environmental factors on mosquito community structure, and temporal effects on mosquito abundances and distributions appear to be driven by changes in abundance of the dominant predator, perhaps because ICE are stronger than OCE due to larval habitat restriction, or because adult dispersal is not limited at the chosen spatial scales.