Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change

Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and increased moisture stress on plants. We used a multi‐regional dataset of 1485 sites across 52 wildfires from the US Rocky Mountains to ask if and how changing climate over the last several decades impacted post‐fire tree regeneration, a key indicator of forest resilience. Results highlight significant decreases in tree regeneration in the 21st century. Annual moisture deficits were significantly greater from 2000 to 2015 as compared to 1985–1999, suggesting increasingly unfavourable post‐fire growing conditions, corresponding to significantly lower seedling densities and increased regeneration failure. Dry forests that already occur at the edge of their climatic tolerance are most prone to conversion to non‐forests after wildfires. Major climate‐induced reduction in forest density and extent has important consequences for a myriad of ecosystem services now and in the future.     

Evidence of non‐stationary relationships between climate and forest responses: Increased sensitivity to climate change in Iberian forests

Climate and forest structure are considered major drivers of forest demography and productivity. However, recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and tree growth are generally non‐stationary (i.e. non‐time stable), and it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate, forest structure, demography and productivity are stationary or are being altered by recent climatic and structural changes. Here we analysed three surveys from the Spanish Forest Inventory covering c. 30 years of information and we applied mixed and structural equation models to assess temporal trends in forest structure (stand density, basal area, tree size and tree size inequality), forest demography (ingrowth, growth and mortality) and above‐ground forest productivity. We also quantified whether the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography and above‐ground forest productivity were stationary over two consecutive time periods. Since the 1980s, density, basal area and tree size increased in Iberian forests, and tree size inequality decreased. In addition, we observed reductions in ingrowth and growth, and increases in mortality. Initial forest structure and water availability mainly modulated the temporal trends in forest structure and demography. The magnitude and direction of the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography changed over the two time periods analysed indicating non‐stationary relationships between climate, forest structure and demography. Above‐ground forest productivity increased due to a positive balance between ingrowth, growth and mortality. Despite increasing productivity over time, we observed an aggravation of the negative effects of climate change and increased competition on forest demography, reducing ingrowth and growth, and increasing mortality. Interestingly, our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on forest demography could be ameliorated through forest management, which has profound implications for forest adaptation to climate change.     

Tropical rainforest canopies and climate change

Abstract There is less certainty about the impact of climate change on tropical rainforests than on temperate forests because of the comparative lack of background data and because few large scale experiments have been, and are being, carried out in tropical rainforests. Many of the factors critical to the future of tropical rainforests concern canopies, the key processes that take place there, and the roles and interactions of canopy biodiversity. In particular there are almost no data on how forest canopies and processes are changing with increased carbon dioxide levels. The implications of elevated carbon dioxide, climatic stress and related changes in water‐use efficiency, nutrient availability and other such changes are discussed particularly with references to Australia's tropical rainforests.     

Changes in forest biomass and linkage to climate and forest disturbances over Northeastern China

The forests of northeastern China store nearly half of the country's total biomass carbon stocks. In this study, we investigated the changes in forest biomass by using satellite observations and found that a significant increase in forest biomass took place between 2001 and 2010. To determine the possible reasons for this change, several statistical methods were used to analyze the correlations between forest biomass dynamics and forest disturbances (i.e. fires, insect damage, logging, and afforestation and reforestation), climatic factors, and forest development. Results showed that forest development was the most important contributor to the increasing trend of forest biomass from 2001 to 2010, and climate controls were the secondary important factor. Among the four types of forest disturbance considered in this study, forest recovery from fires, and afforestation and reforestation during the past few decades played an important role in short‐term biomass dynamics. This study provided observational evidence and valuable information for the relationships between forest biomass and climate as well as forest disturbances.     

Acclimation of Russian forests to recent changes in climate

Assessments made over the past few decades have suggested that boreal forests may act as a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, the fate of the newly accumulated carbon in the living forest biomass is not well understood, and the estimates of carbon sinks vary greatly from one assessment to another. Analysis of remote sensing data has indicated that the carbon sinks in the Russian forests are larger than what has been estimated from forest inventories. In this study, we show that over the past four decades, the allometric relationships among various plant parts have changed in the Russian forests. To this end, we employ two approaches: (1) analysis of the database, which contains 3196 sample plots; and (2) application of developed models to forest inventory data. Within the forests as a whole, when assessed at the continental scale, we detect a pronounced increase in the share of green parts (leaves and needles). However, there is a large geographical variation. The shift has been largest within the European Russia, where summer temperatures and precipitation have increased. In the Northern Taiga of Siberia, where the climate has become warmer but drier, the fraction of the green parts has decreased while the fractions of aboveground wood and roots have increased. These changes are consistent with experiments and mathematical models that predict a shift of carbon allocation to transpiring foliage with increasing temperature and lower allocation with increasing soil drought. In light of this, our results are a possible demonstration of the acclimation of trees to ongoing warming and changes in the surface water balance. Independent of the nature of the observed changes in allometric ratios, the increase in the share of green parts may have caused a misinterpretation of the satellite data and a systematic overestimation by remote sensing methods of the carbon sink for living biomass of the Russian forest.     

Biodiversity and climate determine the functioning of Neotropical forests

Aim

Tropical forests account for a quarter of the global carbon storage and a third of the terrestrial productivity. Few studies have teased apart the relative importance of environmental factors and forest attributes for ecosystem functioning, especially for the tropics. This study aims to relate aboveground biomass (AGB) and biomass dynamics (i.e., net biomass productivity and its underlying demographic drivers: biomass recruitment, growth and mortality) to forest attributes (tree diversity, community‐mean traits and stand basal area) and environmental conditions (water availability, soil fertility and disturbance).

Location

Neotropics.

Methods

We used data from 26 sites, 201 1‐ha plots and >92,000 trees distributed across the Neotropics. We quantified for each site water availability and soil total exchangeable bases and for each plot three key community‐weighted mean functional traits that are important for biomass stocks and productivity. We used structural equation models to test the hypothesis that all drivers have independent, positive effects on biomass stocks and dynamics.

Results

Of the relationships analysed, vegetation attributes were more frequently associated significantly with biomass stocks and dynamics than environmental conditions (in 67 vs. 33% of the relationships). High climatic water availability increased biomass growth and stocks, light disturbance increased biomass growth, and soil bases had no effect. Rarefied tree species richness had consistent positive relationships with biomass stocks and dynamics, probably because of niche complementarity, but was not related to net biomass productivity. Community‐mean traits were good predictors of biomass stocks and dynamics.

Main conclusions

Water availability has a strong positive effect on biomass stocks and growth, and a future predicted increase in (atmospheric) drought might, therefore, potentially reduce carbon storage. Forest attributes, including species diversity and community‐weighted mean traits, have independent and important relationships with AGB stocks, dynamics and ecosystem functioning, not only in relatively simple temperate systems, but also in structurally complex hyper‐diverse tropical forests.     

Net climate impacts of forest biomass production and utilization in managed boreal forests

In this work, we studied the potentials offered by managed boreal forests and forestry to mitigate the climate change using forest‐based materials and energy in substituting fossil‐based materials (concrete and plastic) and energy (coal and oil). For this purpose, we calculated the net climate impacts (radiative forcing) of forest biomass production and utilization in the managed Finnish boreal forests (60°–70°N) over a 90‐year period based on integrated use forest ecosystem model simulations (on carbon sequestration and biomass production of forests) and life‐cycle assessment (LCA) tool. When studying the effects of management on the radiative forcing in a system integrating the carbon sink/sources dynamics in both biosystem and technosystem, the current forest management (baseline management) was used a reference management. Our results showed that the use of forest‐based materials and energy in substituting fossil‐based materials and energy would provide an effective option for mitigating climate change. The negative climate impacts could be further decreased by maintaining forest stocking higher over the rotation compared to the baseline management and by harvesting stumps and coarse roots in addition to logging residues in the final felling. However, the climate impacts varied substantially over time depending on the prevailing forest structure and biomass assortment (timber, energy biomass) used in substitution.     

Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

Global climate change is already impacting species and ecosystems across the planet. Trees, although long‐lived, are sensitive to changes in climate, including climate extremes. Shifts in tree species' distributions will influence biodiversity and ecosystem function at scales ranging from local to landscape; dry and hot regions will be especially vulnerable. The Australian continent has been especially susceptible to climate change with extreme heat waves, droughts, and flooding in recent years, and this climate trajectory is expected to continue. We sought to understand how climate change may impact Australian ecosystems by modeling distributional changes in eucalypt species, which dominate or codominate most forested ecosystems across Australia. We modeled a representative sample of Eucalyptus and Corymbia species (n = 108, or 14% of all species) using newly available Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, and bioclimatic and substrate predictor variables. We compared current, 2025, 2055, and 2085 distributions. Overall, Eucalyptus and Corymbia species in the central desert and open woodland regions will be the most affected, losing 20% of their climate space under the mid‐range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. The least affected species, in eastern Australia, are likely to lose 10% of their climate space under the mid‐range climate scenario and twice that under the extreme scenario. Range shifts will be lateral as well as polewards, and these east–west transitions will be more significant, reflecting the strong influence of precipitation rather than temperature changes in subtropical and midlatitudes. These net losses, and the direction of shifts and contractions in range, suggest that many species in the eastern and southern seaboards will be pushed toward the continental limit and that large tracts of currently treed landscapes, especially in the continental interior, will change dramatically in terms of species composition and ecosystem structure.     

Sensitivity of Siberian larch forests to climate change

The Northern Hemisphere's boreal forests, particularly the Siberian boreal forest, may have a strong effect on Earth's climate through changes in dominant vegetation and associated regional surface albedo. We show that warmer climate will likely convert Siberia's deciduous larch (Larix spp.) to evergreen conifer forests, and thus decrease regional surface albedo. The dynamic vegetation model, FAREAST, simulates Russian boreal forest composition and was used to explore the feedback between climate change and forest composition at continental, regional, and local scales. FAREAST was used to simulate the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on total and genus‐level biomass at sites across Siberia and the Russian Far East (RFE), and for six high‐ and low‐diversity regions. Model runs with and without European Larch (Larix decidua) included in the available species pool were compared to assess the potential for this species, which is adapted to warmer climate conditions, to mitigate the effects of climate change, especially the shift to evergreen dominance. At the continental scale, when temperature is increased, larch‐dominated sites become vulnerable to early replacement by evergreen conifers. At the regional and local scales, the diverse Amur region of the RFE does not show a strong response to climate change, but the low‐diversity regions in central and southern Siberia have an abrupt vegetation shift from larch‐dominated forest to evergreen‐conifer forest in response to increased temperatures. The introduction of L. decidua prevents the collapse of larch in these low‐diversity areas and thus mitigates the response to warming. Using contemporary MODIS albedo measurements, we determined that a conversion from larch to evergreen stands in low‐diversity regions of southern Siberia would generate a local positive radiative forcing of 5.1±2.6 W m^?2. This radiative heating would reinforce the warming projected to occur in the area under climate change.     

Globally consistent climate sensitivity of natural disturbances across boreal and temperate forest ecosystems

Disturbance regimes are changing in forests across the world in response to global climate change. Despite the profound impacts of disturbances on ecosystem services and biodiversity, assessments of disturbances at the global scale remain scarce. Here, we analyzed natural disturbances in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems for the period 2001–2014, aiming to 1) quantify their within- and between-biome variation and 2) compare the climate sensitivity of disturbances across biomes. We studied 103 unmanaged forest landscapes with a total land area of 28.2 × 10⁶ ha, distributed across five continents. A consistent and comprehensive quantification of disturbances was derived by combining satellite-based disturbance maps with local expert knowledge of disturbance agents. We used Gaussian finite mixture models to identify clusters of landscapes with similar disturbance activity as indicated by the percent forest area disturbed as well as the size, edge density and perimeter–area-ratio of disturbed patches. The climate sensitivity of disturbances was analyzed using Bayesian generalized linear mixed effect models and a globally consistent climate dataset. Within-biome variation in natural disturbances was high in both boreal and temperate biomes, and disturbance patterns did not vary systematically with latitude or biome. The emergent clusters of disturbance activity in the boreal zone were similar to those in the temperate zone, but boreal landscapes were more likely to experience high disturbance activity than their temperate counterparts. Across both biomes high disturbance activity was particularly associated with wildfire, and was consistently linked to years with warmer and drier than average conditions. Natural disturbances are a key driver of variability in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems, with high similarity in the disturbance patterns between both biomes. The universally high climate sensitivity of disturbances across boreal and temperate ecosystems indicates that future climate change could substantially increase disturbance activity.     

Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest

Forest fires are a significant and natural element of the circumboreal forest. Fire activity is strongly linked to weather, and increased fire activity due to climate change is anticipated or arguably has already occurred. Recent studies suggest a doubling of area burned along with a 50% increase in fire occurrence in parts of the circumboreal by the end of this century. Fire management agencies' ability to cope with these increases in fire activity is limited, as these organizations operate with a narrow margin between success and failure; a disproportionate number of fires may escape initial attack under a warmer climate, resulting in an increase in area burned that will be much greater than the corresponding increase in fire weather severity. There may be only a decade or two before increased fire activity means fire management agencies cannot maintain their current levels of effectiveness.     

沈阳城市森林主要树种物候对气候变暖的响应

采用统计和线性回归方法,探讨了近40年来沈阳城市森林主要树种物候对气候变暖的响应.结果表明,沈阳城市森林树木休眠期长短与冬季气温密切相关,适宜的寒冷条件有利于解除树木休眠期;树木萌动期早晚与冬季和早春气温高低呈显著的负相关关系,冬春季气温越高,芽萌动越提前.树木爆芽后15 d左右开始展叶,展叶早晚主要受展叶前的春季气温高低的影响,但与冬季气温没有相关关系.始花前2～8旬,特别是2～4旬气温对始花期影响最显著,春季气温升高始花期提前. 树木芽萌动期、展叶始期与寒冷指数（CI）呈显著正相关关系,而开花始期与CI没有相关关系.沈阳城市森林树木对气候变暖的响应,主要表现在年均温升高1 ℃,芽萌动期提前9 d,展叶始期提前10 d,开花始期提前5 d.     

Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity – evidence since the middle of the 20th century

Changes to forest production drivers (light, water, temperature, and site nutrient) over the last 55 years have been documented in peer‐reviewed literature. The main objective of this paper is to review documented evidence of the impacts of climate change trends on forest productivity since the middle of the 20th century. We first present a concise overview of the climate controls of forest production, provide evidence of how the main controls have changed in the last 55 years, followed by a core section outlining our findings of observed and documented impacts on forest productivity and a brief discussion of the complications of interpreting trends in net primary production (NPP). At finer spatial scales, a trend is difficult to decipher, but globally, based on both satellite and ground‐based data, climatic changes seemed to have a generally positive impact on forest productivity when water was not limiting. Of the 49 papers reporting forest production levels we reviewed, 37 showed a positive growth trend, five a negative trend, three reported both a positive and a negative trend for different time periods, one reported a positive and no trend for different geographic areas, and two reported no trend. Forests occupy ≈52% of the Earth's land surface and tend to occupy more temperature and radiation‐limited environments. Less than 7% of forests are in strongly water‐limited systems. The combined and interacting effects of temperature, radiation, and precipitation changes with the positive effect of CO₂, the negative effects of O₃ and other pollutants, and the presently positive effects of N will not be elucidated with experimental manipulation of one or a few factors at a time. Assessments of the greening of the biosphere depend on both accurate measurements of rates (net ecosystem exchange, NPP), how much is stored at the ecosystem level (net ecosystem production) and quantification of disturbances rates on final net biome production.     

Historical climate modelling predicts patterns of current biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

Aim We aim to propose validated, spatially explicit hypotheses for the late Quaternary distribution of the Brazilian Atlantic forest, and thereby provide a framework for integrating analyses of species and genetic diversity in the region. Location The Atlantic forest, stretching along the Brazilian coast. Methods We model the spatial range of the forest under three climatic scenarios (current climate, 6000 and 21,000 years ago) with BIOCLIM and MAXENT. Historically stable areas or refugia are identified as the set of grid cells for which forest presence is inferred in all models and time projections. To validate inferred refugia, we test whether our models are matched by the current distribution of the forest and by fossil pollen data. We then investigate whether the location of inferred forest refugia is consistent with current patterns of species endemism and existing phylogeographical data. Results Forest models agree with pollen records and predict a large area of historical forest stability in the central corridor (Bahia), as well as a smaller refuge (Pernambuco) along the Brazilian coast, matching current centres of endemism in multiple taxa and mtDNA diversity patterns in a subset of the species examined. Less historical stability is predicted in coastal areas south of the Doce river, which agrees with most phylogeographical studies in that region. Yet some widely distributed taxa show high endemism in the southern Atlantic forest. This may be due to limitations of the modelling approach, differences in ecology and dispersal capability, historical processes not contemplated by the current study or inadequacy of the available test data sets. Main conclusions Palaeoclimatic models predict the presence of historical forest refugia in the Atlantic rain forest and suggest spatial variation in persistence of forests through the Pleistocene, predicting patterns of biodiversity in several local taxa. The results point to the need for further studies to document genetic and species endemism in the relatively poorly known and highly impacted areas of Atlantic rain forests of north‐eastern Brazil.     

Drought timing and local climate determine the sensitivity of eastern temperate forests to drought

Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi‐arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (ENA) if tree growth is significantly curtailed by drought. Investigations of the environmental conditions that determine drought sensitivity are critically needed to accurately predict ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We matched site factors with the growth responses to drought of 10,753 trees across mesic forests of ENA, representing 24 species and 346 stands, to determine the broad‐scale drivers of drought sensitivity for the dominant trees in ENA. Here we show that two factors—the timing of drought, and the atmospheric demand for water (i.e., local potential evapotranspiration; PET)—are stronger drivers of drought sensitivity than soil and stand characteristics. Drought‐induced reductions in tree growth were greatest when the droughts occurred during early‐season peaks in radial growth, especially for trees growing in the warmest, driest regions (i.e., highest PET). Further, mean species trait values (rooting depth and ψ₅₀) were poor predictors of drought sensitivity, as intraspecific variation in sensitivity was equal to or greater than interspecific variation in 17 of 24 species. From a general circulation model ensemble, we find that future increases in early‐season PET may exacerbate these effects, and potentially offset gains in C uptake and storage in ENA owing to other global change factors.     

Impact of a drier Early-Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests

This paper uses a palaeoecological approach to examine the impact of drier climatic conditions of the Early-Mid-Holocene (ca 8000-4000 years ago) upon Amazonia's forests and their fire regimes. Palaeovegetation (pollen data) and palaeofire (charcoal) records are synthesized from 20 sites within the present tropical forest biome, and the underlying causes of any emergent patterns or changes are explored by reference to independent palaeoclimate data and present-day patterns of precipitation, forest cover and fire activity across Amazonia. During the Early-Mid-Holocene, Andean cloud forest taxa were replaced by lowland tree taxa as the cloud base rose while lowland ecotonal areas, which are presently covered by evergreen rainforest, were instead dominated by savannahs and/or semi-deciduous dry forests. Elsewhere in the Amazon Basin there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in patterns of vegetation disturbance and fire, which probably reflects the complex heterogeneous patterns in precipitation and seasonality across the basin, and the interactions between climate change, drought- and fire susceptibility of the forests, and Palaeo-Indian land use. Our analysis shows that the forest biome in most parts of Amazonia appears to have been remarkably resilient to climatic conditions significantly drier than those of today, despite widespread evidence of forest burning. Only in ecotonal areas is there evidence of biome replacement in the Holocene. From this palaeoecological perspective, we argue against the Amazon forest 'dieback' scenario simulated for the future.     

森林凋落物分解及其对全球气候变化的响应

凋落物分解是重要的森林生态系统过程之一,受到气候、凋落物质量、土壤生物群落等生物和非生物因素的综合调控．迄今,有关不同森林生态系统和不同树种地上部分的凋落物动态、凋落物分解过程中的养分释放动态、生物和非生物因素对凋落物分解的影响等研究报道较多,但对地下凋落物的分解研究相对较少．近年来,森林凋落物分解对以大气CO2浓度增加和温度升高为主要特征的全球变化的响应逐步受到重视,但其研究结果仍具有很多不确定性．因此,未来凋落物生态研究的重点应是凋落物分解对土壤有机碳固定的贡献、地上／地下凋落物的物理、化学和生物学过程及其对各种生态因子（例如冻融、干湿交替）及交互作用的响应、凋落物特别是地下凋落物分解对全球气候变化的响应机制等方面．     

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems – dominated by immobile, long‐lived organisms – are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest‐dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate‐induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate‐induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process‐based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid‐ to low‐elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning.     

Effects of climate change on the distribution of Iberian tree species

Question: Will the predicted climate changes affect species distribution in the Iberian Peninsula? Location: Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal). Methods: We modelled current and future tree distributions as a function of climate, using a computational framework that made use of one machine learning technique, the random forest (RF) algorithm. This algorithm provided good predictions of the current distribution of each species, as shown by the area under the corresponding receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Species turnover, richness and the change in distributions over time to 2080 under four Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) scenarios were calculated using the species map outputs. Results and Conclusions: The results show a notable reduction in the potential distribution of the studied species under all the IPCC scenarios, particularly so for mountain conifer species such as Pinus sylvestris, P. uncinata and Abies alba. Temperate species, especially Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea, were also predicted to suffer a reduction in their range; also sub‐mediterranean species, especially Q. pyrenaica, were predicted to undergo notable decline. In contrast, typically Mediterranean species appeared to be generally more capable of migration, and are therefore likely to be less affected.