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DON A. DRISCOLL 《Austral ecology》2010,35(1):13-23
False absences in wildlife surveys make it difficult to identify metapopulation processes, increase uncertainty of management decisions and bias parameter estimates in habitat models. Despite these risks, the number of species that can be detected with a certain probability in a community survey has rarely been examined. I sampled beetles over 5 months using pitfall trap grids at three rainforest locations in Tasmania, Australia. I compared detection probability for dispersed and clustered sampling schemes using a zero‐inflated binomial model and a simpler occurrence method to calculate the probability of detection. After excluding extremely rare species, I analysed 12 of 121 species. Only three to six species could be detected with 95% probability using a sampling effort that is frequently applied in ecological studies. A majority of common species had a mid summer peak in detection probability meaning that survey effort could be reduced from 5 to 2 months with only a small reduction in data quality. Most species occurred at only a proportion of sample points within locations. Despite the implied spatial structuring, three small grids within a location detected 10 of 12 species as effectively as large, dispersed grids. This study warns that as little as 5% of the beetle fauna may have a 95% probability of detection using the frequently applied pitfall trap method, highlighting a substantial limitation in our ability to accurately map the distributions of ground invertebrates. Whether very large sample sizes can overcome this limitation remains to be examined. 相似文献
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Jan Hanspach Ingolf Kühn Oliver Schweiger Sven Pompe Stefan Klotz 《Global Ecology and Biogeography》2011,20(5):779-788
Aim To describe and explain geographical patterns of false absence and false presence prediction errors that occur when describing current plant species ranges with species distribution models. Location Europe. Methods We calibrated species distribution models (generalized linear models) using a set of climatic variables and gridded distribution data for 1065 vascular plant species from the Atlas Florae Europaeae. We used randomly selected subsets for each species with a constant prevalence of 0.5, modelled the distribution 1000 times, calculated weighted averages of the model parameters and used these to predict the current distribution in Europe. Using a threshold of 0.5, we derived presence/absence maps. Comparing observed and modelled species distribution, we calculated the false absence rates, i.e. species wrongly modelled as absent, and the false presence rates, i.e. species wrongly modelled as present, on a 50 × 50 km grid. Subsequently, we related both error rates to species range properties, land use and topographic variability within grid cells by means of simultaneous autoregressive models to correct for spatial autocorrelation. Results Grid‐cell‐specific error rates were not evenly distributed across Europe. The mean false absence rate was 0.16 ± 0.12 (standard deviation) and the mean false presence rate was 0.22 ± 0.13. False absence rates were highest in central Spain, the Alps and parts of south‐eastern Europe, while false presence rates were highest in northern Spain, France, Italy and south‐eastern Europe. False absence rates were high when range edges of species accumulated within a grid cell and when the intensity of human land use was high. False presence rates were positively associated with relative occurrence area and accumulation of range edges. Main conclusions Predictions for various species are not only accompanied by species‐specific but also by grid‐cell‐specific errors. The latter are associated with characteristics of the grid cells but also with range characteristics of occurring species. Uncertainties of predictive species distribution models are not equally distributed in space, and we would recommend accompanying maps of predicted distributions with a graphical representation of predictive performance. 相似文献
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GEORGIA E. GARRARD SARAH A. BEKESSY MICHAEL A. McCARTHY BRENDAN A. WINTLE 《Austral ecology》2008,33(8):986-998
There is now a substantial body of literature documenting the detectability of plants and animals under standard survey conditions. Despite the evidence that many flora and fauna species have detection probabilities of less than one, it is still the default assumption of most environmental impact assessment processes that if a species is present, it will be detected. Here we briefly review a number of existing studies that have estimated the survey effort necessary to detect animal species, based on what is known about their detection rates in standard surveys. We then propose a novel method, based on failure‐time analysis, for quantifying the detectability of and determining appropriate survey effort for plant species during flora surveys. We provide computer code for implementing the method in the Bayesian freeware WinBUGS. Methods for estimating detectability can be used to inform minimum survey requirements and have important applications in environmental impact assessment and monitoring. 相似文献
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Guindon S Black M Rodrigo A;SMBE Tri-National Young Investigators 《Molecular biology and evolution》2006,23(5):919-926
In this article, we consider the probabilistic identification of amino acid positions that evolve under positive selection as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The null hypothesis "H0,s: site s evolves under a negative selection or under a neutral process of evolution" is tested at each codon site of the alignment of homologous coding sequences. Standard hypothesis testing is based on the control of the expected proportion of falsely rejected null hypotheses or type-I error rate. As the number of tests increases, however, the power of an individual test may become unacceptably low. Recent advances in statistics have shown that the false discovery rate--in this case, the expected proportion of sites that do not evolve under positive selection among those that are estimated to evolve under this selection regime--is a quantity that can be controlled. Keeping the proportion of false positives low among the significant results generally leads to an increase in power. In this article, we show that controlling the false detection rate is relevant when searching for positively selected sites. We also compare this new approach to traditional methods using extensive simulations. 相似文献
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False‐negative rate,limit of detection and recovery efficiency performance of a validated macrofoam‐swab sampling method for low surface concentrations of Bacillus anthracis Sterne and Bacillus atrophaeus spores 
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下载免费PDF全文 G.F. Piepel B.L. Deatherage Kaiser B.G. Amidan M.A. Sydor C.A. Barrett J.R. Hutchison 《Journal of applied microbiology》2016,121(1):149-162
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Heini Kujala Ville Vepsäläinen Benjamin Zuckerberg Jon E. Brommer 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(2):420-430
Global climate warming is predicted to lead to global and regional changes in the distribution of organisms. One influential approach to test this prediction using temporally repeated mapping surveys of organisms was suggested in a seminal paper by Thomas & Lennon (1999, Nature). The Thomas & Lennon approach corrects observed changes in the range margin for changes in the range size, and thus potentially controls for other broad‐scale environmental changes between surveys, however the approach does not necessarily account for potential biases in sampling effort. To verify whether the issue of variation in sampling effort affects empirical estimates of shifts in range margin, we reanalyzed all three published studies exploring range margin changes of breeding birds in Great Britain (GB), Finland, and New York State (NY). Accounting for changes in survey effort on range margins lowered the estimated shift for breeding birds in New York, but the shift remained statistically significant. For Great Britain and Finland, for which no direct estimate of survey effort is available, we used species richness (a strong correlate of survey effort in New York) as a proxy and found that in both cases the estimated shift in range margin was significantly reduced and became nonsignificant. To understand how robust the approach is to sampling biases, we use a simulation model to show that the Thomas & Lennon approach is, under certain conditions, sensitive to changes in detection probability (probability to detect true occupancy) which in turn may be affected by changes in surveying effort between surveys. We thus found evidence that temporal changes in the distribution of breeding birds based on repeated mapping surveys may be inflated by changes in survey effort along range boundaries. We discuss possible approaches to deal with this issue in the analysis and design of national or regional surveys. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThe katipō is an endemic New Zealand spider that was previously common in the sand dunes at New Brighton. At sites on Banks Peninsula, katipō were detected under dried seaweed on the strandline 70% of the time. However, we detected no katipō among strandlines at New Brighton after 382 sampling visits. Incorporating these results into binomial and iterative Bayesian sampling models, it appeared highly unlikely that katipō still existed at New Brighton given so many non-detection events. However, when re-visiting the site, katipō were observed in the dunes at two locations, although they were still not found on the strandline. This specific habitat may be avoided at New Brighton due to high exposure to the prevalent strong easterly winds that occur at this site. The results emphasise that sampling models that use non-detection to indicate the likelihood of species absence can be highly specific to the sampling method used. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT Broadcasts of conspecific vocalizations are used to increase detection rates on surveys of secretive bird species, yet the assessment of detectability necessary to fully interpret such survey data is frequently lacking. We used radiotelemetry to evaluate the probability of detection of 17 radio‐tagged male Flammulated Owls (Otus flammeolus) using conspecific broadcast surveys in Idaho during 2005 and 2006. Probability of detection among the 11 paired, five unpaired, and one unknown pairing status owls was 100% during the pair‐bonding and incubation periods of the breeding season, after which it declined to less than 15% during the postfledging period. Paired males showed a different pattern than unpaired males. Following hatching of eggs, detectability of paired males declined gradually over a 6‐week period, whereas detectability of unpaired males dropped sharply for a 4‐week period before increasing during the postfledging period. We suggest that surveys for Flammulated Owls be conducted during the pair‐bonding and incubation periods when high detectability permits stronger inference concerning the presence or absence of owls based on broadcast survey detections. 相似文献
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Carola Gómez‐Rodríguez Javier Bustamante Carmen Díaz‐Paniagua Antoine Guisan 《Diversity & distributions》2012,18(3):260-272
Aim The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species–environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time‐consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower‐cost alternative based on a double‐sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression‐based species distribution modelling. Location Doñana National Park (south‐western Spain). Methods Using species‐specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species‐specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond‐breeding amphibian species during a 4‐year period. Results Non‐detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species. Main conclusions We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non‐detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems. 相似文献
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Janna R. Willoughby Bhagya K. Wijayawardena Mekala Sundaram Robert K. Swihart J. Andrew DeWoody 《Molecular ecology resources》2016,16(4):837-844
Environmental DNA (eDNA) is DNA that has been isolated from field samples, and it is increasingly used to infer the presence or absence of particular species in an ecosystem. However, the combination of sampling procedures and subsequent molecular amplification of eDNA can lead to spurious results. As such, it is imperative that eDNA studies include a statistical framework for interpreting eDNA presence/absence data. We reviewed published literature for studies that utilized eDNA where the species density was known and compared the probability of detecting the focal species to the sampling and analysis protocols. Although biomass of the target species and the volume per sample did not impact detectability, the number of field replicates and number of samples from each replicate were positively related to detection. Additionally, increased number of PCR replicates and increased primer specificity significantly increased detectability. Accordingly, we advocate for increased use of occupancy modelling as a method to incorporate effects of sampling effort and PCR sensitivity in eDNA study design. Based on simulation results and the hierarchical nature of occupancy models, we suggest that field replicates, as opposed to molecular replicates, result in better detection probabilities of target species. 相似文献
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JASON T. BRIED BARBARA J. HAGER PAMELA D. HUNT JENNETTE N. FOX HEATHER J. JENSEN KELLY M. VOWELS 《Insect Conservation and Diversity》2012,5(3):213-222
Abstract. 1. Repeat surveys are needed to capture a representative spectrum of adult odonate richness at a site, but specifics on frequency and duration of surveys and associated inferential biases are poorly understood. 2. Weekly 1 h surveys of mature male dragonflies and damselflies were repeated at least 15 times at 19 ponds, lakes and wetlands scattered throughout North America. For each site, we tallied the data remaining when the weekly frequency was reduced to 75% (every 1.5 weeks), 50% (biweekly), 33% (triweekly), and 25% (monthly) and the 1 h survey to 50, 40, 30, 20 and 10 min subsets. 3. Reducing the original effort by half (i.e. to 30 min biweekly) retained about 80% of the species on average. The smallest effort (10 min monthly) retained about 49% of species. The greatest rate of information loss occurred between 20 and 10 min. 4. Across‐site analysis found that data subsets correlated to the original data set (r > 0.81) despite up to 50% species loss. Strong correlations (r ≥ 0.98) remained with 10–15% species loss. 5. Biweekly surveys lasting 20–40 min each may provide a representative and cost‐effective sample of adult odonate richness in lentic study sites. Losing a handful of species should not greatly undermine richness and compositional comparisons among sites. 相似文献
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CLIFFORD G. RICE KURT J. JENKINS WAN-YING CHANG 《The Journal of wildlife management》2009,73(3):468-478
ABSTRACT Unbiased estimates of mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) populations are key to meeting diverse harvest management and conservation objectives. We developed logistic regression models of factors influencing sightability of mountain goat groups during helicopter surveys throughout the Cascades and Olympic Ranges in western Washington during summers, 2004–2007. We conducted 205 trials of the ability of aerial survey crews to detect groups of mountain goats whose presence was known based on simultaneous direct observation from the ground (n = 84), Global Positioning System (GPS) telemetry (n = 115), or both (n = 6). Aerial survey crews detected 77% and 79% of all groups known to be present based on ground observers and GPS collars, respectively. The best models indicated that sightability of mountain goat groups was a function of the number of mountain goats in a group, presence of terrain obstruction, and extent of overstory vegetation. Aerial counts of mountain goats within groups did not differ greatly from known group sizes, indicating that under-counting bias within detected groups of mountain goats was small. We applied Horvitz-Thompson-like sightability adjustments to 1,139 groups of mountain goats observed in the Cascade and Olympic ranges, Washington, USA, from 2004 to 2007. Estimated mean sightability of individual animals was 85% but ranged 0.75–0.91 in areas with low and high sightability, respectively. Simulations of mountain goat surveys indicated that precision of population estimates adjusted for sightability biases increased with population size and number of replicate surveys, providing general guidance for the design of future surveys. Because survey conditions, group sizes, and habitat occupied by goats vary among surveys, we recommend using sightability correction methods to decrease bias in population estimates from aerial surveys of mountain goats. 相似文献
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Abstract: Little quantitative information exists about the survey effort necessary to inventory temperate bat species assemblages. We used a bootstrap resampling algorithm to estimate the number of mist net surveys required to capture individuals from 9 species at both study area and site levels using data collected in a forested watershed in northwestern California, USA, during 1996–2000. The mean number of simulated surveys required to capture individual species varied with species' rarity and ranged from 1.5 to 44.9. We retrospectively evaluated strategies to reduce required survey effort by subsampling data from 1996 to 1998 and tested the strategies in the field during 1999 and 2000. Using data from 1996 to 1998, the mean number of simulated surveys required to capture 8 out of 9 species was 26.3, but a 95% probability of capture required >61 surveys. Inventory efficiency, defined as the cumulative proportion of species detected per survey effort, improved for both the study area and individual sites by conducting surveys later in summer. We realized further improvements in study area inventory efficiency by focusing on productive sites. We found that 3 surveys conducted between 1 July and 10 September at each of 4 productive sites in this 10-km2 study area resulted in the capture of 8 species annually. Quantitative estimation of the survey effort required to assess bat species occurrence improves the ability to plan and execute reliable, efficient inventories. Results from our study should be useful for planning inventories in nearby geographical areas and similar habitat types; further, the analytical methods we used to assess effort are broadly applicable to other survey methods and taxa. 相似文献
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Brett T. Mcclintock Larissa L. Bailey Kenneth H. Pollock Theodore R. Simons 《The Journal of wildlife management》2010,74(8):1882-1893
ABSTRACT Occupancy models that account for imperfect detection are often used to monitor anuran and songbird species occurrence. However, presence—absence data arising from auditory detections may be more prone to observation error (e.g., false-positive detections) than are sampling approaches utilizing physical captures or sightings of individuals. We conducted realistic, replicated field experiments using a remote broadcasting system to simulate simple anuran call surveys and to investigate potential factors affecting observation error in these studies. Distance, time, ambient noise, and observer abilities were the most important factors explaining false-negative detections. Distance and observer ability were the best overall predictors of false-positive errors, but ambient noise and competing species also affected error rates for some species. False-positive errors made up 5% of all positive detections, with individual observers exhibiting false-positive rates between 0.5% and 14%. Previous research suggests false-positive errors of these magnitudes would induce substantial positive biases in standard estimators of species occurrence, and we recommend practices to mitigate for false positives when developing occupancy monitoring protocols that rely on auditory detections. These recommendations include additional observer training, limiting the number of target species, and establishing distance and ambient noise thresholds during surveys. 相似文献
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Renée Hartley Wade Blanchard Nick Clemann Mel Schroder Martin Schulz David B. Lindenmayer Ben C. Scheele 《Austral ecology》2023,48(8):1921-1940
Wildfire and grazing by invasive herbivores can influence habitat suitability for ground-dwelling fauna, such as reptiles. Australia has a large and diverse reptile fauna, with the Australian Alps bioregion in the southeast of the continent supporting a disproportionately high number of threatened species. In this bioregion, many species are threatened by fire, habitat loss or modification, and invasive species. The range of one such threatened endemic lizard, Cyclodomorphus praealtus (family Scincidae), was impacted by the 2019–20 megafires and is also subject to widespread grazing by invasive species. We investigated the relationship between C. praealtus site occupancy and fire and grazing. We completed 2045 surveys across 120 sites over 4 years, detecting the species at 43% of sites and increasing the species' known geographic range. Using single season detection occupancy models, we found C. praealtus occupancy was not associated with elevation, vegetation height or whether the site was burnt, but was positively associated with grazing activity. Our results indicate that C. praealtus has the capacity to persist following a single fire in some cases, and that habitats with high occupancy probabilities are subject to high grazing pressure. However, our results do not rule out more nuanced impacts associated with these disturbances, which affect a large proportion of C. praealtus' habitat. Our cumulative detection probability calculations revealed that considerable survey effort is often required to determine C. praealtus site occupancy. We therefore recommend that impact assessments assume species presence within areas of suitable habitat within the species' range. Our study improves our understanding of disturbance impacts on C. praealtus' occupancy, while demonstrating the need for sufficiently resourced impact assessments for cryptic and threatened species. 相似文献