Different nest predator faunas and nest predation risk on ground and shrub nests at forest ecotones: an experiment and a review

This study examined predator faunas of artificial ground and shrub nests and whether nest predation risk was influenced by nest site, proximity to forest edge, and habitat structure in 38 grassland plots in south-central Sweden. There was a clear separation of predator faunas between shrub and ground nests as identified from marks in plasticine eggs. Corvids accounted for almost all predation on shrub nests whereas mammals mainly depredated ground nests. Nest predation risk was significantly greater for shrub than for ground nests at all distances (i.e. 0, 15 and 30 m) from the forest edge. However, nest predation risk was not significantly related to distance to forest edge, but significantly increased with decreasing distance to the nearest tree. Different corvid species robbed nests at different distances from the forest edge, with jays robbing nests closest to edges. We conclude that the relationship between the predation risk of grassland bird nests and distance to the forest edge mainly depends on the relative importance of different nest predator species and on the structure of the forest edge zone. A review of published articles on artificial shrub and ground nest predation in the temperate zone corroborated the results of our own study, namely that shrub nests experienced higher rates of depredation in open habitats close to the forest edge and that avian predators predominantly robbed shrub nests. Furthermore, the review results showed that predation rates on nests in general are highest <50 m inside the forest and lower in open as well as forest interior habitats (≥50 m from the edge). Received: 16 March 1998 / Accepted: 30 July 1998     

Nest Predation Risk on Ground and Shrub Nests in Forest Margin Areas of Sulawesi, Indonesia

Forest loss and fragmentation in Indonesia may seriously affect the survivorship of forest birds and lead to local extinction of bird populations. We used 786 artificial nests baited with quail eggs to examine the effect of habitat alteration on nest predation in Lore Lindu National Park, Sulawesi. Natural forest and four habitats of forest margin areas: forest edge, forest gardens, coffee plantations, and secondary forest, were studied. Two types of artificial nests, ground and shrub nests were placed in these habitats at two different locations for a period of 8 days. In addition, we used automatic cameras and cage-traps to identify the predators. Nests in shrubs experienced significantly higher predation rates in forest margin areas than in natural forest. Predation on ground nests did not differ significantly between these habitat types, but was significantly higher than that on shrub nests in each habitat except forest edge. Rodents were the most common predators of both nests, but shrub nests were also susceptible to Dwarf cuscus (Strigocuscus celebensis), squirrels, and tree snakes. The nest predation rates we found were among the highest found in tropical rainforests, probably a consequence of the unique predator assemblages of Sulawesi. These results suggest that egg survival is negatively affected by human intervention and that human-induced habitats might have only limited importance for the conservation of Sulawesi's largely endemic understorey avifauna. These considerations might be important since forest margins comprise significant proportions of protected areas on Sulawesi and play an important role in future Park zoning concepts as well as in conservation-oriented land use management.     

Predation on artificial nests in relation to forest type: contrasting the use of quail and plasticine eggs

Previous studies of avian nest predation have focused on how human-induced changes in the landscape influence the frequency of predation However, natural variation in the abundance of predators due to their choice of habitat can also influence predation rate To determine if predation on artificial nests was influenced by forest stand type, we placed ground and shrub nests containing quail and plasticine eggs in contiguous coniferous, mixedwood and deciduous stands in the southern boreal mixedwood forest of central Canada Nest predators were identified using remotely triggered cameras and marks left in plasticine eggs, while the relative abundance of nest predators such as squirrels and corvids were estimated using acoustic-visual surveys Using the fate of quail eggs to calculate predation rate, we found that predation was significantly higher in coniferous (67%) than in deciduous (17%) or mixedwood (25%) forest, with similar predation on ground (37%) and shrub (29%) nests Using plasticine eggs to calculate predation rate, nests in coniferous forest still suffered higher rates of predation, although predation rates were 15–20% higher, and ground nests suffered significantly higher rates of predation than shrub nests Quail eggs seemed to suffer lower rates of predation because small mammals were unable to penetrate the shell, but could leave marks on plasticine eggs The higher predation rate in coniferous forest was likely caused by higher abundance of red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus , the presence of fishers Martes pennanti and a simplified understory which may have made it easier for predators to find nests relative to the deciduous and mixedwood forest Plasucine eggs provide new insights into nest predation by identifying predation events by smaller predators such as mice that are missed when using quail eggs     

Forest fragmentation and rhinocryptid nest predation in central Chile

Fragmentation of forest landscapes can raise the intensity of nest predation by increasing the abundance and richness of generalist or introduced predators. Understory foraging birds, such as rhinocryptids, can be highly vulnerable to nest predation in fragmented landscapes because they often place their nests on the ground. Temperate deciduous forests in Chile have been intensively fragmented in the last centuries, causing changes in nest predator densities. We tested if predation of artificial nests, mimicking those of rhinocryptids, placed on and above ground was higher in the remnant fragments of central Chile due to an increase in predator abundance. The rate of nest predation in forest remnants was larger than in native continuous forest. Small mammals were the main nest predators. Despite high predation rates, the abundance of rhinocryptids is higher in forest remnants, suggesting that fragments might constitute ecological traps.     

Predation risk of artificial ground nests in managed floodplain meadows

Nest predation highly determines the reproductive success in birds. In agricultural grasslands, vegetation characteristics and management practices influences the predation risk of ground breeders. Little is known so far on the predation pressure on non-passerine nests in tall swards. Investigations on the interaction of land use with nesting site conditions and the habitat selection of nest predators are crucial to develop effective conservation measures for grassland birds.In this study, we used artificial nests baited with quail and plasticine eggs to identify potential predators of ground nests in floodplain meadows and related predation risk to vegetation structure and grassland management.Mean daily predation rate was 0.01 (±0.012) after an exposure duration of 21 days. 70% of all observed nest predations were caused by mammals (Red Fox and mustelids) and 17.5% by avian predators (corvids). Nest sites close to the meadow edge and those providing low forb cover were faced with a higher daily predation risk. Predation risk also increased later in the season. Land use in the preceding year had a significant effect on predation risk, showing higher predation rates on unmanaged sites than on mown sites. Unused meadows probably attract mammalian predators, because they provide a high abundance of small rodents and a more favourable vegetation structure for foraging, increasing also the risk of incidental nest predations. Although mowing operation is a major threat to ground-nesting birds, our results suggest that an annual removal of vegetation may reduce predation risk in the subsequent year.     

Experiments with artificial nests on predation in reed habitats

We performed nest predation experiments with artificial nests in reedbeds investigating whether nest predation pressure is different at the water-reed edge and the grassland-reed edge compared with the reed interior. Furthermore, we tested the effects of vegetation structure (reed density, height and thickness) and the effect of other nest site characteristics (distance from edge, water depth) on the success of artificial nests. The experiments were completed 3 times during the breeding season in 2001 at Lake Neusiedl, Austria. Each artificial nest resembled Great Reed Warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) nests and contained one plasticine and one Quail (Coturnix coturnix) egg and the predators were identified by marks left on the eggs. The potential predators were birds, probably the Marsh Harrier (Circus aeruginosus), gulls (Larus spp.) and reed warblers (Acrocephalus spp.). Nest survival data were analysed using the Mayfield method, and we performed a discriminant analysis for the data of vegetation and nest site characteristics. The nest predation was higher at the edges than in the reed interior, and was most pronounced in April, before the new reed sprouted. The reason for this finding was probably that after May the new reed contributed to greater concealment of the nests through the higher reed density and height.     

The influence of fragment size and edge on nest predation in urban bushland

To test the effects of habitat fragmentation and edge on the rate of nest predation in an urban ecosystem, 20 artificial nests each containing 2 plasticine eggs were distributed in each of 24 bushland sites in Sydney, Australia. the eastern yellow robin Eopsaltria australis was adopted as a target species, and variables of nests, eggs and nesting behaviour were manipulated in experiments. Sites ranged in size from 3.8 ha to 14717 ha and were divided into three size classes: 1) 0–10 ha. 2) 11–100 ha and 3) ≥101 ha. Nests were positioned either around the edge of the fragment (within 50 m from the fragment boundary) or within the centre of the fragment (< 50 m from the fragment boundary). The predation rate was calculated as the percentage of nests that had one or both eggs damaged or removed after 15 d of exposure. Nest predation rates were high (average 70.6%) but were not affected by patch size or distance from fragment edges. Predators were identified by marks of the beak or teeth left in the plasticine eggs. Nest predators identified were birds, black rats, brown antechinus and ringtail possum, with the majority of predation being by birds (61.7%), Our findings differ from those of most previous studies of nest predation, and perhaps reflect the ubiquity of generalist predators and the degree of habitat modification throughout remnants of bushland in the urban environment.     

Do artificial nests reveal relative nest predation risk for real nests?

Present knowledge of the effects of nest predation on spatial distribution, habitat selection and community structure of birds is to a large extent based on results from experiments with artificial nests. Although nest predation risk is likely to differ between artificial and real nests, most previous studies of nest predation using artificial nests have been lacking a proper control. We investigated whether predation rates on artificial nests predicted those on real nests by simultaneously comparing the fate of real and artificial nests (containing quail Coturnix coturnix and plasticine eggs) in 92 territories of the northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe in 1996. We also investigated whether risk for artificial nests was related to relative average risk for real nests in these territories (based on data collected two years before and two years after the experiment). Nest predation on artificial nests did predict relative predation risk for real nests only when quail egg depredation was used as the criterion for artificial nest predation. Despite plasticine egg depredation being the most common type of predation it was not associated with predation risk for real nests. Small mice and vole species dominated among cases with only plasticine egg depredation, while predatory mammals and snakes destroyed most quail eggs in artificial nests and most eggs in real wheatear nests. The results suggest that artificial nests may only predict the risk for real nests when the nest predator species are similar among the two types of nest. Furthermore, our data suggest that small mice and vole species rarely depredate nests of mid-sized passerine birds . Our results cast doubt on many previous conclusions based on experiments with artificial nests, since predation risk for such nests is likely to be uncorrelated with risk for real nests due to nest-type-specific differences in nest preying species.     

Habitat edges affect patterns of artificial nest predation along a wetland-meadow boundary

Wetland habitats are among the most endangered ecosystems in the world. However, little is known about factors affecting the nesting success of birds in pristine grass-dominated wetlands. During three breeding periods we conducted an experiment with artificial ground nests to test two basic mechanisms (the matrix and ecotonal effects) that may result in edge effects on nest predation in grass-dominated wetland habitats. Whereas the matrix effect model supposes that predator penetrate from habitat of higher predator density to habitat of lower predator density, thus causing an edge effect in the latter, according to the ecotonal effect model predators preferentially use edge habitats over habitat interiors. In addition, we tested the edge effect in a wetland habitat using artificial shrub nests that simulated the real nests of small open-cup nesting passerines. In our study area, the lowest predation rates on ground nests were found in wetland interiors and were substantially higher along the edges of both wetland and meadow habitat. However, predation was not significantly different between meadow and wetland interiors, indicating that both mechanisms can be responsible for the edge effect in wetland edges. An increased predation rate along wetland edges was also observed for shrub nests, and resembled the predation pattern of real shrub nests in the same study area. Though we are not able to distinguish between the two mechanisms of the edge effect found, our results demonstrate that species nesting in wetland edges bordering arable land may be exposed to higher predation. Therefore, an increase in the size of wetland patches that would lead to a reduced proportion of edge areas might be a suitable management practice to protect wetland bird species in cultural European landscapes.     

Compounding effects of habitat fragmentation and predation on bird nests

Habitat fragmentation and invasive species are two of the greatest threats to species diversity worldwide. This is particularly relevant for oceanic islands with vulnerable endemics. Here, we examine how habitat fragmentation influences nest predation by Rattus spp. on cup‐nesting birds in Samoan forests. We determined models for predicting predation rates by Rattus on artificial nests at two scales: (i) the position of the bird's nest within the landscape (e.g. proximity to mixed crop plantations, distance to forest edge); and (ii) the microhabitat in the immediate vicinity of the nest (e.g. nest height, ground cover, slope). Nest cameras showed only one mammal predator, the black rat (Rattus rattus), predating artificial nests. The optimal model predicting nest predation rates by black rats included a landscape variable, proximity to plantations and a local nest site variable, the percentage of low (<15 cm) ground cover surrounding the nest tree. Predation rates were 22 ± 13% higher for nests in forest edges near mixed crop plantations than in edges without plantations. In contrast, predation rates did not vary significantly between edge habitat where the matrix did not contain plantations, and interior forest sites (>1 km from the edge). As ground cover reduced, nest predation rates increased. Waxtags containing either coconut or peanut butter were used as a second method for assessing nest predation. The rates at which these were chewed followed patterns similar to the predation of the artificial nests. Rural development in Samoa will increase the proportion of forest edge near plantations. Our results suggest that this will increase the proportion of forest birds that experience nest predation from black rats. Further research is required to determine if rat control is needed to maintain even interior forest sites populations of predator‐sensitive bird species on South Pacific islands.     

Nest position and type affect predation rates of artificial avian nests in the tropical lowland forest on Mount Cameroon

Nest predation is the leading cause of reproductive failure in birds and thus it shapes their life history strategies. Intensities of nest predation appear to differ among nest locations and types in both temperate and tropical regions. However, there is limited knowledge of factors influencing susceptibility of avian nests to predation in Africa. The aim of our study was to investigate artificial nest predation rates of different ground and shrub nests located at different heights in the rainforest undergrowth. We placed artificial avian nests within a homogeneous lowland forest interior with sparse forest undergrowth in the Mount Cameroon National Park, Cameroon. We exposed three sets of nests: 50 bare-ground, 50 cup-ground and 50 cup-shrub nests, for 10 d. Predation was higher for cup-ground nests compared to cup-shrub nests, and bare-ground nests were more depredated than cup-ground nests. We concluded that the presence of a cup as well as higher nest position significantly increased probability of artificial nest survival. The results of this study suggest a potential selection pressure on nest type and placement in lowland forest birds for a poorly known tropical region.     

Predation on artificial ground nests in relation to forest fragmentation, agricultural land and habitat structure

The impacts of forest fragmentation agricultural land and habitat structure on depredation of artificial ground nests were studied in the cultivated area in central Finland and in the forest dominated area in Finnish Lapland The overall predation rate did not differ between the regions The overall predation rate was also independent of landscape characteristics forest patch size and the distance to patch edge However, nest predation was clearly affected by the agricultural land since the robbing rate in forest edges was higher near farmlands than further away This effect was caused by avian predators which proportional importance in predation was higher in the agricultural landscape than in the forest landscape In both regions, depredation correlated positively with high numbers of pine and spruce This can be mainly explained by the preference of predators over coniferous forest habitat as a living or hunting area     

Artificial nest predation rates in tropical and temperate forests: a review of the effects of edge and nest site

Nest predation rates are believed to be higher in tropical than in temperate forests. This notion is central in explaining different life history traits of tropical and temperate birds, but it is not known whether this assertion is true for all nest sites, such as ground and shrub nests, and at different distances from forest edge. I reviewed 22 studies using artificial nest experiments which concurrently contrasted predation rates of ground and shrub nests in temperate and tropical forests and found, contrary to the current dogma, no overall difference in predation rates between regions. However, there was a significant interaction between region and nest site. Ground nest predation rates were significantly higher in the tropical region, while predation rates on shrub nests were similar between regions. Within the tropical region, ground nests had significantly higher predation rates than shrub nests. Elevated nest predation rates at forest edges were found in both temperate and tropical forests. The results may have great implications for expected patterns of avian life histories and for the effects of forest fragmentation in temperate and tropical regions. First, if nest predation affects avian life histories, my results predict ground-nesting species in tropical forests to have shorter nestling periods, more broods and smaller clutch sizes than shrub-nesting species. Second, vulnerability of ground- and shrub-nesting guilds is suggested to differ between regions due to differences in forest vegetation structure, and the composition of predator faunas and their specific responses to forest fragmentation. Data to test these hypotheses are limited, but agree with the results of this review.     

Nest height, nest concealment, and predator type predict nest predation in superb fairy-wrens (Malurus?cyaneus)

Three factors and their interaction effects are increasingly recognized as important determinants of nest predation: nest concealment, nest height, and predator type. The risk of nest predation is predicted to vary across these variables because of nest detectability and accessibility. In general, however, few studies examine how these three variables interact in relation to nest predation, focusing instead on either nest concealment or nest height (whereby predator identity is usually not known). In this study, we examine the role of nest concealment and nest height for nest survival using both artificial and natural nests in the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus). We indirectly identified potential predators through marks left on artificial eggs and footprints left on tracking tunnels. Predation level at artificial nests was lower than at natural nests, and this could be due to a failure of some nest predators to locate cryptic nests in the absence of cues provided by parental activity. Our results supported the prediction that exposed and concealed nests have different levels of nest predation, which can be explained by variation in predator type. Visual predators were only detected at exposed nests, and survival from visual predators was lower for high nests that were also exposed. However, olfactory predators were detected irrespective of nest height or nest concealment. Because rodents use olfaction to locate nests, this could explain the lack of association between nest concealment and predation outcome at low nests. In addition, rodent footmarks near nests were significantly associated with rodent tooth marks on eggs.     

Artificial nest predation in hedgerows and scrub forest in a human-dominated landscape of central Mexico

Hedgerows as well as other narrow corridors could be valuable habitats for birds in regions of intensive agriculture, however, it is still not clear how successful breeding birds are in different types of hedgerows as compared to birds nesting in their natural habitats. We used artificial nests to examine whether hedgerows were sinks (ecological traps) for birds by comparing rates of predation in two types of hedgerows with different vegetation structure (simple and complex), and in a tract of scrub forest in an agricultural landscape of central Mexico. We determined also the types of predators responsible for egg predation. Ground and elevated nests were baited with one Japanese quail Coturnix japonica egg and one plasticine egg and placed alternately along transects. Significantly, greater predation rates were found in scrub forest and complex hedgerows than in simple hedgerows. Higher predation rates in complex habitats seemed to reflect the higher number of predator types found there. The most important predator types were carnivores followed by rodents, birds, and humans. Carnivores and rodents mainly predated ground nests, whereas birds and humans predated elevated nests. Simple hedgerows in this landscape appeared to offer relatively safe nest sites in terms of predation pressure when compared to more complex habitats (complex hedgerows and scrub forest).     

Effects of Mesopredators on Nest Survival of Shrub-Nesting Songbirds

ABSTRACT Although nest predation is often the single largest source of mortality in avian populations, manipulative studies to determine predator impacts on nest survival are rare, particularly studies that examine impacts of mid-size mammalian predators (hereafter, mesopredators) on nest survival of shrub-nesting birds. We quantified nest survival and identified nest predators of shrub-nesting songbirds within 4 large (approx. 40-ha) exclosures and 4 control sites within a longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. During 2003–2006, we located and monitored 535 shrub nests (222 with videography) for 4,804 nest-days to quantify daily nest survival and document predation events. We found no support for a treatment effect, suggesting mesopredators had little impact on daily nest survival (0.9303 in controls and 0.9260 in exclosures) of shrub-nesting songbirds. For the 5 most commonly monitored species, daily nest survival within species was constant. Our analysis suggested that shrub nests were most vulnerable during the nestling stage and presence of cameras on nests increased survival with the increase in survival being more pronounced during the incubation stage. We filmed 107 nest predation events, identifying predators at 88 nests. Of these 88 nests, snakes caused 33%, red imported fire ants (hereafter fire ants, Solenopsis invicta) 28%, raptors 17%, corvids 8%, mesopredators 6%, and small mammals 8% of nest predations. Cause-specific nest predation in controls and exclosures did not differ from expectation, providing evidence that compensatory predation did not occur. Nest predators differed from expectation with regard to nest stage; fire ants and raptors only depredated nests during the nestling stage. Presence of cameras had no effect on nest abandonment. Fire ants were the most prevalent nest predator, and nest predation by fire ants was only observed on nestlings, potentially reducing likelihood of renesting. Magnitude and timing of fire ant predation suggests that fire ants may be the most influential nest predator of shrub-nesting birds within the longleaf pine ecosystem. Our data suggest that controlling mesopredators will have no effect on nest success of shrub-nesting birds within longleaf pine forests.     

Nesting Success of Costa Rican Lowland Rain Forest Birds in Response to Edge and Isolation Effects

Although open-cup nesting birds generally face increased risk of nest depredation from forest edge predators and brood parasites in fragmented temperate landscapes, little information exists to assess such risks in tropical birds. We compared nesting success of real birds' nests in large and small forest fragments to a control site in Caribbean lowland wet forest of Costa Rica. Pooling across species, nesting success was significantly greater in unfragmented forest than in either small, isolated fragments or the La Selva Biological Reserve, which is at the tip of a forest 'peninsula' embedded in a largely deforested landscape. Nesting success in isolated fragments did not vary according to distance from edge, suggesting that predators in fragments act throughout these forest patches. The case for increased nest predation as a plausible mechanism to explain the documented decline of forest interior bird populations in this fragmented tropical landscape is enhanced by a simple demographic model that suggests nesting success is likely too low to maintain populations at La Selva and in the fragments. The fact that the large (> 1000 ha) La Selva forest reserve is experiencing nest predation rates similar to those in much smaller fragments is cause for concern. Our results make a strong case for additional studies to document the identities of nest predators in both fragmented and unfragmented forests in such tropical forest landscapes.     

Nest-predation at the edge: an experimental study contrasting two types of edges in the dry Chaco, Paraguay

Forest fragmentation leads to the creation of isolated forest patches with subsequent impact on forest-interior flora and fauna. Forested corridors have been suggested to alleviate some of the impact by increasing the connectivity between remnant forest patches. However, both fragmentation and corridors increase the ratio of edge to core habitat. We studied nest predation of artificial nests at edges between I) contiguous forests and pastures and 2) forested corridors and pastures, in a forest-dominated landscape in the dry Chaco, Paraguay, The aim was lo determine if nest predation was higher near habitat edges compared to within forests and pastures, with special emphasis on edges at forested corridors. We found that predation rates were similar at edges and in interior habitats. Nest predation was higher for both ground and shrub nests in forested areas than in pastures, Predation rates were also higher for both ground and shrub nests at edges along forested corridors compared to edges neighbouring contiguous forests. Forested corridors connecting contiguous forests may thus act as an ecological sink for some species breeding here. Analysis of predator categories revealed that ground nests in pastures were relatively more depredated by mammals and less by birds, compared to both shrub nests in pastures and ground nests in forests.     

Long‐term and large‐scale analyses of nest predation patterns in Australian songbirds and a global comparison of nest predation rates

Juvenile mortality is one of crucial drivers of life‐history evolution, and predation is the main cause of nest loss in birds. Thus, understanding how nest predation and failure vary in nature is important for understanding life history evolution and, moreover, for effective conservation. We used published data and unpublished records to study factors influencing nest predation and total failure in 138 populations of 90 species of Australian songbirds. Daily predation (average 2.0% d^?1) and failure rates (2.9%) increased from temperate regions to the tropics, over the last four decades, and were lowest in temperate south‐western Australia. Predation and failure were higher in smaller species, and failure rates were lower in species with closed nests than in species with open nests. There was no effect of nest height or nest site (ground, shrub, canopy) or social organization on nest predation or failure rates. Nest predation caused on average 72% of total nest failure, similar to other tropical, subtropical, and temperate areas. Our study spanning from the tropics to temperate regions and using > 10 000 nests confirmed that tropical birds faced higher nest failure rates. We identified an increase in nest depredation rates in the last four decades in Australia, suggesting that a large‐scale ecological phenomenon must be responsible. It may include increases in predator abundances and/or ranges, possibly connected with human‐caused habitat change. A global comparison of nest failure rates confirmed that predation is the main source of nest mortality in songbirds worldwide. We discuss implications of our results for the evolution of reproductive strategies and for the conservation of Australian birds.     

Nest site attributes and temporal patterns of northern flicker nest loss: effects of predation and competition

To date, most studies of nest site selection have failed to take into account more than one source of nest loss (or have combined all sources in one analysis) when examining nest site characteristics, leaving us with an incomplete understanding of the potential trade-offs that individuals may face when selecting a nest site. Our objectives were to determine whether northern flickers (Colaptes auratus) may experience a trade-off in nest site selection in response to mammalian nest predation and nest loss to a cavity nest competitor (European starling, Sturnus vulgaris). We also document within-season temporal patterns of these two sources of nest loss with the hypothesis that flickers may also be constrained in the timing of reproduction under both predatory and competitive influence. Mammalian predators frequently depredated flicker nests that were: lower to the ground, less concealed by vegetation around the cavity entrance and at the base of the nest tree, closer to coniferous forest edges and in forest clumps with a high percentage of conifer content. Proximity to coniferous edges or coniferous trees increased the probability of nest predation, but nests near conifers were less likely to be lost to starlings. Flickers may thus face a trade-off in nest site selection with respect to safety from predators or competitors. Models suggested that peaks of nest predation and nest loss to eviction occurred at the same time, although a competing model suggested that the peak of nest loss to starlings occurred 5 days earlier than the peak of mammalian predation. Differences in peaks of mammalian predation and loss to starlings may constrain any adjustment in clutch initiation date by flickers to avoid one source of nest loss.