"Neighbourhood" size, dispersal and density estimates in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae) using individual genetic and demographic methods

Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4piDsigma2 (where D is the population density and sigma2 the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m2/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km2 and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m2/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km2 when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.     

On the spatial scale of dispersal in coral reef fishes

Marine biologists have gone through a paradigm shift, from the assumption that marine populations are largely ‘open’ owing to extensive larval dispersal to the realization that marine dispersal is ‘more restricted than previously thought’. Yet, population genetic studies often reveal low levels of genetic structure across large geographic areas. On the other side, more direct approaches such as mark‐recapture provide evidence of localized dispersal. To what extent can direct and indirect studies of marine dispersal be reconciled? One approach consists in applying genetic methods that have been validated with direct estimates of dispersal. Here, we use such an approach—genetic isolation by distance between individuals in continuous populations—to estimate the spatial scale of dispersal in five species of coral reef fish presenting low levels of genetic structure across the Caribbean. Individuals were sampled continuously along a 220‐km transect following the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef, population densities were estimated from surveys covering 17 200 m² of reef, and samples were genotyped at a total of 58 microsatellite loci. A small but positive isolation‐by‐distance slope was observed in the five species, providing mean parent‐offspring dispersal estimates ranging between 7 and 42 km (CI 1–113 km) and suggesting that there might be a correlation between minimum/maximum pelagic larval duration and dispersal in coral reef fishes. Coalescent‐based simulations indicate that these results are robust to a variety of dispersal distributions and sampling designs. We conclude that low levels of genetic structure across large geographic areas are not necessarily indicative of extensive dispersal at ecological timescales.     

Identification of subpopulations from connectivity matrices

Dispersal on the landscape/seascape scale may lead to complex spatial population structure with non‐synchronous demography and genetic divergence. In this study we present a novel approach to identify subpopulations and dispersal barriers based on estimates of dispersal probabilities on the landscape scale. A theoretical framework is presented where the landscape connectivity matrix is analyzed for clusters as a signature of partially isolated subpopulations. Identification of subpopulations is formulated as a minimization problem with a tuneable penalty term that makes it possible to generate population subdivisions with varying degree of dispersal restrictions. We show that this approach produces superior results compared to alternative standard methods. We apply this theory to a dataset of modeled dispersal probabilities for a sessile marine invertebrate with free‐swimming larvae in the Baltic Sea. For a range of critical connectivities we produce a hierarchical partitioning into subpopulations spanning dispersal probabilities that are typical for both genetic divergence and demographic independence. The mapping of subpopulations suggests that the Baltic Sea includes a fine‐scale (100–600 km) mosaic of invisible dispersal barriers. An analysis of the present network of marine protected areas reveal that protection is very unevenly distributed among the suggested subpopulations. Our approach can be used to assess the location and strength of dispersal barriers in the landscape, and identify conservation units when extensive genotyping is prohibitively costly to cover necessary spatial and temporal scales, e.g. in spatial management of marine populations.     

Fine-scale genetic structure and gene dispersal in Centaurea corymbosa (Asteraceae) I. Pattern of pollen dispersal

Pollen dispersal was characterized within a population of the narrowly endemic perennial herb, Centaurea corymbosa, using exclusion-based and likelihood-based paternity analyses carried out on microsatellite data. Data were used to fit a model of pollen dispersal and to estimate the rates of pollen flow and mutation/genotyping error, by developing a new method. Selfing was rare (1.6%). Pollen dispersed isotropically around each flowering plant following a leptokurtic distribution, with 50% of mating pairs separated by less than 11 m, but 22% by more than 40 m. Estimates of pollen flow lacked precision (0-25%), partially because mutations and/or genotyping errors (0.03-1%) could also explain the occurrence of offspring without a compatible candidate father. However, the pollen pool that fertilized these offspring was little differentiated from the adults of the population whereas strongly differentiated from the other populations, suggesting that pollen flow rate among populations was low. Our results suggest that pollen dispersal is too extended to allow differentiation by local adaptation within a population. However, among populations, gene flow might be low enough for such processes to occur.     

Turnover and post‐bottleneck genetic structure in a recovering population of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus

Dispersal is a process that increases genetic diversity and genetic connectivity of populations. We studied the turnover rate of breeding adults and genetic population structure to estimate dispersal in Peregrine Falcons in Finland. We used relatedness estimates among Finnish Peregrine Falcons over a 5‐year period, genotyping over 500 nestlings with 10 microsatellite loci to reveal the rate of turnover. Our results reveal a high turnover rate (21.7%) that does not seem to be correlated with the breeding success of the previous year. The extent of population genetic structure and diversity, and possible signs of the population crash during the 1970s, was assessed with a reduced dataset, excluding relatives. We found genetic diversity to be similar to previously studied falcon populations (expected heterozygosity of 0.581) and no population genetic structuring among our sampled populations. We did not find a genetic imprint of the past population bottleneck that the Finnish Peregrine population experienced. We conclude that high dispersal rates are likely to have contributed to maintaining genetic diversity across the landscape, by mixing individuals within the species’ distribution in Finland and thus preventing genetic structuring and negative effects associated with the population decline in the 1970s.     

Microsatellite variation and fine-scale population structure in the wood frog (Rana sylvatica)

We investigated genetic population structure in wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) from a series of Prairie Pothole wetlands in the northern Great Plains. Amphibians are often thought to exist in demographic metapopulations, which require some movement between populations, yet genetic studies have revealed strong subdivision among populations, even at relatively fine scales (several km). Wood frogs are highly philopatric and studies of dispersal suggest that they may exhibit subdivision on a scale of approximately 1-2 km. We used microsatellites to examine population structure among 11 breeding assemblages separated by as little as 50 m up to approximately 5.5 km, plus one population separated from the others by 20 km. We found evidence for differentiation at the largest distances we examined and among a few neighbouring ponds, but most populations were strikingly similar in allele frequencies, suggesting high gene flow among all but the most distant populations. We hypothesize that the few significant differences among neighbouring populations at the finest scale may be a transient effect of extinction-recolonization founder events, driven by periodic drying of wetlands in this hydrologically dynamic landscape.     

Effects of hydrographic barriers on population genetic structure of the sea star Coscinasterias muricata (Echinodermata, Asteroidea) in the New Zealand fiords

New Zealand's 14 deep-water fiords possess persistent salinity stratification and mean estuarine circulation that may serve to isolate populations of marine organisms that have a dispersal larval phase. In order to investigate this idea, we analysed the population structure of the sea star Coscinasterias muricata using a mitochondrial DNA marker. Genetic differentiation among populations of C. muricata was analysed using 366 base pairs of mtDNA D-loop. We compared populations from the fiords with several others sampled from around New Zealand. At a macro-geographical scale (> 1000 km), restricted gene flow between the North and South Islands was observed. At a meso-geographical scale (10-200 km), significant population structure was found among fiords and between fiords and open coast. The pattern of population genetic structure among the fiords suggests a secondary contact between a northern population and a southern one, separated by a contact or mixing zone. These populations may have diverged by the effects of random genetic drift and population isolation as a consequence of the influence of estuarine circulation on dispersal. In northern Fiordland, genetic structure approximated an isolation by distance model. However, the pattern in genetic differences suggests that distance alone cannot explain the most divergent populations and that fiord hydrography may increase the effect of genetic drift within populations in the fiords. Finally, our study indicates that populations within the fiords underwent recent rapid expansion, followed most probably by genetic drift due to a lack of gene flow among the fiords.     

Genetic diversity and gene flow in collapsed and healthy abalone fisheries

Overexploitation of marine species invariably results in population decline but can also have indirect effects on ecological processes such as larval dispersal and recruitment that ultimately affect genetic diversity and population resilience. We compared microsatellite DNA variation among depleted and healthy populations of the black-lip abalone Haliotis rubra from Tasmania, Australia, to determine if over-fishing had affected genetic diversity. We also used genetic data to assess whether variation in the scale and frequency of larval dispersal was linked to greater population decline in some regions than in others, and if larval dispersal was sufficient to facilitate natural recovery of depleted populations. Surprisingly, allelic diversity was higher in depleted populations than in healthy populations ( P <  0.05). Significant subdivision across hundreds of metres among our sampling sites ( F _ST = 0.026, P  < 0.01), coupled with assignment tests, indicated that larval dispersal is restricted in all regions studied, and that abalone populations across Tasmania are largely self-recruiting. Low levels of larval exchange appear to occur at the meso-scale (7–20 km), but age estimates based on shell size indicated that successful migration of larvae between any two sites may happen only once every few years. We suggest that genetic diversity may be higher in depleted populations due to the higher relative ratio of migrant to self-recruiting larvae. In addition, we expect that recovery of depleted abalone populations will be reliant on sources of larvae at the meso-scale (tens of km), but that natural recovery is only likely to occur on a timescale unacceptable to fishers and resource managers.     

Challenges to assessing connectivity between massive populations of the Australian plague locust

Linking demographic and genetic dispersal measures is of fundamental importance for movement ecology and evolution. However, such integration can be difficult, particularly for highly fecund species that are often the target of management decisions guided by an understanding of population movement. Here, we present an example of how the influence of large population sizes can preclude genetic approaches from assessing demographic population structuring, even at a continental scale. The Australian plague locust, Chortoicetes terminifera, is a significant pest, with populations on the eastern and western sides of Australia having been monitored and managed independently to date. We used microsatellites to assess genetic variation in 12 C. terminifera population samples separated by up to 3000 km. Traditional summary statistics indicated high levels of genetic diversity and a surprising lack of population structure across the entire range. An approximate Bayesian computation treatment indicated that levels of genetic diversity in C. terminifera corresponded to effective population sizes conservatively composed of tens of thousands to several million individuals. We used these estimates and computer simulations to estimate the minimum rate of dispersal, m, that could account for the observed range-wide genetic homogeneity. The rate of dispersal between both sides of the Australian continent could be several orders of magnitude lower than that typically considered as required for the demographic connectivity of populations.     

Population synchrony of a native fish across three Laurentian Great Lakes: evaluating the effects of dispersal and climate

Climate and dispersal are the two most commonly cited mechanisms to explain spatial synchrony among time series of animal populations, and climate is typically most important for fishes. Using data from 1978–2006, we quantified the spatial synchrony in recruitment and population catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) for bloater (Coregonus hoyi) populations across lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron. In this natural field experiment, climate was highly synchronous across lakes but the likelihood of dispersal between lakes differed. When data from all lakes were pooled, modified correlograms revealed spatial synchrony to occur up to 800 km for long-term (data not detrended) trends and up to 600 km for short-term (data detrended by the annual rate of change) trends. This large spatial synchrony more than doubles the scale previously observed in freshwater fish populations, and exceeds the scale found in most marine or estuarine populations. When analyzing the data separately for within- and between-lake pairs, spatial synchrony was always observed within lakes, up to 400 or 600 km. Conversely, between-lake synchrony did not occur among short-term trends, and for long-term trends, the scale of synchrony was highly variable. For recruit CPUE, synchrony occurred up to 600 km between both lakes Michigan and Huron (where dispersal was most likely) and lakes Michigan and Superior (where dispersal was least likely), but failed to occur between lakes Huron and Superior (where dispersal likelihood was intermediate). When considering the scale of putative bloater dispersal and genetic information from previous studies, we concluded that dispersal was likely underlying within-lake synchrony but climate was more likely underlying between-lake synchrony. The broad scale of synchrony in Great Lakes bloater populations increases their probability of extirpation, a timely message for fishery managers given current low levels of bloater abundance.     

USING ISOLATION BY DISTANCE AND EFFECTIVE DENSITY TO ESTIMATE DISPERSAL SCALES IN ANEMONEFISH

Robust estimates of dispersal are critical for understanding population dynamics and local adaptation, as well as for successful spatial management. Genetic isolation by distance patterns hold clues to dispersal, but understanding these patterns quantitatively has been complicated by uncertainty in effective density. In this study, we genotyped populations of a coral reef fish (Amphiprion clarkii) at 13 microsatellite loci to uncover fine‐scale isolation by distance patterns in two replicate transects. Temporal changes in allele frequencies between generations suggested that effective densities in these populations are 4–21 adults/km. A separate estimate from census densities suggested that effective densities may be as high as 82–178 adults/km. Applying these effective densities with isolation by distance theory suggested that larval dispersal kernels in A. clarkii had a spread near 11 km (4–27 km). These kernels predicted low fractions of self‐recruitment in continuous habitats, but the same kernels were consistent with previously reported, high self‐recruitment fractions (40–60%) when realistic levels of habitat patchiness were considered. Our results suggested that ecologically relevant larval dispersal can be estimated with widely available genetic methods when effective density is measured carefully through cohort sampling and ecological censuses, and that self‐recruitment studies should be interpreted in light of habitat patchiness.     

Extensive pollen dispersal in a bird-pollinated shrub, Calothamnus quadrifidus, in a fragmented landscape

Pollen dispersal was investigated in six populations of Calothamnus quadrifidus, a bird-pollinated shrub in the fragmented agricultural region of southern Western Australia. Paternity analysis using six microsatellite loci identified a pollen source within populations for 67% of seedlings, and the remainder were assumed to have arisen from pollen sources outside the populations. Outcrossing was variable, ranging from 5% to 82%, and long-distance pollen dispersal was observed in all populations with up to 43% of pollen sourced from outside the populations over distances of up to 5 km. This extensive pollen immigration was positively associated with population size but not isolation. Comparison of two populations of similar size but different density showed greater internal pollination and less selfing in the denser population, suggesting an influence of density on pollinator behaviour. The study revealed extensive long-distance pollen dispersal for C. quadrifidus within this fragmented agricultural landscape and highlighted the interaction between reserve populations and isolated road verge remnants in maintaining genetic connectivity at the landscape scale.     

River otter population size estimation using noninvasive latrine surveys

Across much of North America, river otter (Lontra canadensis) populations were extirpated or greatly reduced by the early 20th century. More recently, reintroductions have resulted in restored populations and the recommencement of managed trapping. Perhaps the best example of these river otter reintroductions occurred in Missouri, regarded as one of the most successful carnivore recovery programs in history. However, abundance estimates for river otter populations are difficult to obtain and often contentious when used to underpin management activities. We assessed the value of latrine site monitoring as a mechanism for quantifying river otter abundance. Analyses of fecal DNA to identify individual animals may result in an improved population estimate and have been used for a variety of mammal species. We optimized laboratory protocols, redesigned existing microsatellite primers, and calculated genotyping error rates to enhance genotyping success for a large quantity of river otter scat samples. We also developed a method for molecular sexing. We then extracted DNA from 1,421 scat samples and anal sac secretions (anal jelly) collected during latrine site counts along 22–34-km stretches representing 8–77% of 8 rivers in southern Missouri in 2009. Error rates were low for the redesigned microsatellites. We obtained genotypes at 7–10 microsatellite loci for 24% of samples, observing highest success for anal jelly samples (71%) and lowest for fresh samples (collected within 1 day of defecation). We identified 63 otters (41 M, 22 F) in the 8 rivers, ranging from 2 to 14 otters per river. Analyses using program CAPWIRE resulted in population estimates similar to the minimum genotyping estimate. Density estimates averaged 0.24 otters/km. We used linear regression to develop and contrast models predicting population size based on latrine site and scat count indices, which are easily collected in the field. Population size was best predicted by a combination of scats per latrine and latrines per kilometer. Our results provide methodological approaches to guide wildlife managers seeking to initiate similar river otter fecal genotyping studies, as well as to estimate and monitor river otter population sizes. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Maintenance of high pollen dispersal in Eucalyptus wandoo, a dominant tree of the fragmented agricultural region in Western Australia

Pollen dispersal was investigated in five remnant populations of Eucalyptus wandoo, a dominant insect-pollinated tree in the fragmented agricultural region of southern Western Australia. Paternity analysis using six microsatellite loci identified a pollen source for 45% of seedlings, and the remainder were assumed to have arisen from pollen sources outside the stands. Outcrossing was variable, ranging from 52 to 89%, and long distance pollen dispersal was observed in all populations with up to 65% of pollen sourced from outside the populations over distances of at least 1 km. Modelling dispersal functions for pollination events within the two larger populations showed little difference between the four two-parameter models tested and indicated a fat-tailed dispersal curve. Similarity of direct and indirect historical estimates of gene flow indicates maintenance of gene flow at levels experienced prior to fragmentation. The study revealed extensive long distance pollen dispersal in remnant patches of trees within a fragmented agricultural landscape in the southern temperate region and highlighted the role of remnant patches in maintaining genetic connectivity at the landscape scale.     

Fine-scale genetic structure and dispersal in the common vole (Microtus arvalis)

The genetic structure and demography of local populations is tightly linked to the rate and scale of dispersal. Dispersal parameters are notoriously difficult to determine in the field, and remain often completely unknown for smaller organisms. In this study, we investigate spatial and temporal genetic structure in relation to dispersal patterns among local populations of the probably most abundant European mammals, the common vole (Microtus arvalis). Voles were studied in six natural populations at distances of 0.4-2.5 km in three different seasons (fall, spring, summer) corresponding to different life-history stages. Field observations provided no direct evidence for movements of individuals between populations. The analysis of 10 microsatellite markers revealed a persistent overall genetic structure among populations of 2.9%, 2.5% and 3% FST in the respective season. Pairwise comparisons showed that even the closest populations were significantly differentiated from each other in each season, but there was no evidence for temporal differentiation within populations or isolation by distance among populations. Despite significant genetic structure, assignment analyses identified a relatively high proportion of individuals as being immigrants for the population where they were captured. The immigration rate was not significantly lower for females than for males. We suggest that a generally low and sex-dependent effective dispersal rate as the consequence of only few immigrants reproducing successfully in the new populations together with the social structure within populations may explain the maintenance of genetic differentiation among populations despite migration.     

Scale dependency of metapopulation models used to predict climate change impacts on small mammals

To investigate potential range shifts in a changing climate it is becoming increasingly common to develop models that account for demographic processes. Metapopulation models incorporate the spatial configuration of occupied habitat (i.e. arrangement, size and quality), population demographics, and inter‐patch dispersal making them suitable for investigating potential threats to small mammal range and abundance. However, the spatial scale (resolution) used to represent species–environment dynamics may affect estimates of range shift and population resilience by failing to realistically represent the spatial configuration of suitable habitat, including stepping stones and refugia. We aimed to determine whether relatively fine‐scale environmental information influenced predictions of metapopulation persistence and range shift. Species distribution models were constructed for four small terrestrial mammals from southern Australia using environmental predictors measured at 0.1 × 0.1 km (0.01 km²) or 1.0 × 1.0 km (1 km²) resolution, and combined with demographic information to parameterise coupled niche‐population models. These models were used to simulate population dynamics projected over 40‐yr under a stable and changing climate. Initial estimates of the area of available habitat were similar at both spatial scales. However, at the fine‐scale, habitat configuration comprised a greater number of patches (ca 12 times), that were more irregular in shape (ca 8 times the perimeter:area), and separated by a tenth of the distance than at the coarse‐scale. While small patches were not more prone to extinction, populations generally declined at a higher rate and were associated with a lower expected minimum abundance. Despite increased species vulnerability at the fine‐scale, greater range shifts were measured at the coarse‐scale (for species illustrating a shift at both scales). These results highlight the potential for range shifts and species vulnerability information to be misrepresented if advanced modelling techniques incorporating species demographics and dispersal inadequately represent the scale at which these processes occur.     

Likelihood and approximate likelihood analyses of genetic structure in a linear habitat: performance and robustness to model mis-specification

We evaluate the performance of maximum likelihood (ML) analysis of allele frequency data in a linear array of populations. The parameters are a mutation rate and either the dispersal rate in a stepping stone model or a dispersal rate and a scale parameter in a geometric dispersal model. An approximate procedure known as maximum product of approximate conditional (PAC) likelihood is found to perform as well as ML. Mis-specification biases may occur because the importance sampling algorithm is formally defined in term of mutation and migration rates scaled by the total size of the population, and this size may differ widely in the statistical model and in reality. As could be expected, ML generally performs well when the statistical model is correctly specified. Otherwise, mutation rate estimates are much closer to mutation probability scaled by number of demes in the statistical model than scaled by number of demes in reality when mutation probability is high and dispersal is most limited. This mis-specification bias actually has practical benefits. However, opposite results are found in opposite conditions. Migration rate estimates show roughly similar trends, but they may not always be easily interpreted as low-bias estimates of dispersal rate under any scaling. Estimation of the dispersal scale parameter is also affected by mis-specification of the number of demes, and the different biases compensate each other in such a way that good estimation of the so-called neighborhood size (or more precisely the product of population density and mean-squared parent-offspring dispersal distance) is achieved. Results congruent with these findings are found in an application to a damselfly data set.     

Fluorescent dye particles as pollen analogues for measuring pollen dispersal in an insect-pollinated forest herb

In flowering plants, pollen dispersal is often the major contributing component to gene flow, hence a key parameter in conservation genetics and population biology. A cost-effective method to assess pollen dispersal consists of monitoring the dispersal of fluorescent dyes used as pollen analogues. However, few comparisons between dye dispersal and realized pollen dispersal have been performed to validate the method. We investigated pollen dispersal in two small populations of the insect-pollinated herb Primula elatior from urban forest fragments using direct (paternity analyses based on microsatellite DNA markers) and indirect (fluorescent dyes) methods. We compared these methods using two approaches, testing for the difference between the distance distributions of observed dispersal events and estimating parameters of a dispersal model, and related these results to dye dispersal patterns in three large populations. Dye and realized (based on paternity inference) pollen dispersal showed exponential decay distributions, with 74.2?C94.8% of the depositions occurring at <50?m and a few longer distance dispersal events (up to 151?m). No significant difference in curve shape was found between dye and realized pollen dispersal distributions. The best-fitting parameters characterizing the dye dispersal model were consistent with those obtained for realized pollen dispersal. Hence, the fluorescent dye method may be considered as reliable to infer realized pollen dispersal for forest herbs such as P. elatior. However, our simulations reveal that large sample sizes are needed to detect moderate differences between dye and realized pollen dispersal patterns because the estimation of dispersal parameters suffers low precision.     

Regional gene flow and population structure of the wind-dispersed plant species Hypochaeris radicata (Asteraceae) in an agricultural landscape

Using microsatellites, we investigated population structure and gene flow of the short-lived, wind-dispersed plant species Hypochaeris radicata in a fragmented agricultural landscape where more than 99% of the nutrient-poor grasslands have disappeared over the last century. We sampled populations in the few remaining high density populations in conservation areas, as well as individuals that occurred, with lower densities, in linear landscape elements, at two spatial scales. In a re-inventory of the landscape, after 3 years, both extinctions and colonizations of populations were observed. Contrary to expectations, no differences in genetic diversity between high and low density populations were observed. Both types of populations had relatively high levels of diversity. Overall genetic differentiation (theta) was 0.04 and significantly different from zero (P < 0.01). A significant isolation-by-distance pattern was found when all populations were simultaneously analysed (r = 0.24, P = 0.013). Isolation by distance was (marginally) significant at the small scale (r = 0.32, P = 0.06), whereas nonsignificant at the large spatial scale (r = -0.05, P = 0.66). A maximization-of-explained-variance procedure resulted in a threshold distance of 3.5 km above which populations were effectively genetically isolated. An additional partial exclusion Bayesian-based assignment test showed that overall 32.3% of the individuals were assigned to their population of origin, 48% were assigned to another population in the area and 19.7% were not assigned. Together, these results suggest high levels of gene flow. Seed dispersal contributes to the observed gene flow up to several hundred metres, which is higher than previously modelled using aerodynamic models on seed dispersal of H. radicata. We discuss the consequences of these results for an evaluation of the probability of persistence of this species in the fragmented landscape.     

Population Genetics of Ceratitis capitata in South Africa: Implications for Dispersal and Pest Management

The invasive Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata, is one of the major agricultural and economical pests globally. Understanding invasion risk and mitigation of medfly in agricultural landscapes requires knowledge of its population structure and dispersal patterns. Here, estimates of dispersal ability are provided in medfly from South Africa at three spatial scales using molecular approaches. Individuals were genotyped at 11 polymorphic microsatellite loci and a subset of individuals were also sequenced for the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene. Our results show that South African medfly populations are generally characterized by high levels of genetic diversity and limited population differentiation at all spatial scales. This suggests high levels of gene flow among sampling locations. However, natural dispersal in C. capitata has been shown to rarely exceed 10 km. Therefore, documented levels of high gene flow in the present study, even between distant populations (>1600 km), are likely the result of human-mediated dispersal or at least some form of long-distance jump dispersal. These findings may have broad applicability to other global fruit production areas and have significant implications for ongoing pest management practices, such as the sterile insect technique.