Interactions between frequency-dependent and vertical transmission in host-parasite systems.

We investigate host-pathogen dynamics and conditions for coexistence in two models incorporating frequency-dependent horizontal transmission in conjunction with vertical transmission. The first model combines frequency-dependent and uniparental vertical transmission, while the second addresses parasites transmitted vertically via both parents. For the first model, we ask how the addition of vertical transmission changes the coexistence criteria for parasites transmitted by a frequency-dependent horizontal route, and show that vertical transmission significantly broadens the conditions for parasite invasion. Host-parasite coexistence is further affected by the form of density-dependent host regulation. Numerical analyses demonstrate that within a host population, a parasite strain with horizontal frequency-dependent transmission can be driven to extinction by a parasite strain that is additionally transmitted vertically for a wide range of parameters. Although models of asexual host populations predict that vertical transmission alone cannot maintain a parasite over time, analysis of our second model shows that vertical transmission via both male and female parents can maintain a parasite at a stable equilibrium. These results correspond with the frequent co-occurrence of vertical with sexual transmission in nature and suggest that these transmission modes can lead to host-pathogen coexistence for a wide range of systems involving hosts with high reproductive rates.     

Population dynamics of plant-parasite interactions: thresholds for invasion

Thresholds are derived for the invasion of plant populations by parasites. The theory is developed for a generic model that takes into account two features characteristic of plant-parasite interactions: a dual source of inoculum (infection from primary or externally introduced inoculum and secondary infection from contact between susceptible and infected host tissue) and a host response to infection load. Each of the threshold criteria is shown to be the sum of the individual components for primary and secondary infection. This indicates that if parasite invasion is not possible through primary or secondary infection alone, when the two modes of transmission are combined, the parasite may be able to invade. The invasion criteria demonstrate that there is a threshold population of susceptible hosts below which the parasite is unable to invade. If there are nonlinearities in the population dynamics (arising through either the transmission process or the host response), there are also threshold densities for the infected hosts and parasite populations below which invasion does not occur. The implications of the results for the control of plant disease are discussed.     

Incomplete feminisation by the microsporidian sex ratio distorter,Nosema granulosis,and reduced transmission and feminisation efficiency at low temperatures

We investigated the effects of temperature on transovarial transmission and feminisation by Nosema granulosis, a microsporidian sex ratio distorter of the brackish water amphipod Gammarus duebeni. There was no difference in parasite transmission efficiency to the F(1) eggs of infected females maintained under two temperature conditions, 5 and 10 degrees C (89 and 86%, respectively). When F(1) individuals were screened as adults, the proportion infected was also similar at both temperatures (74 and 75%, respectively). However, transmission to the eggs of the F(2) generation was significantly reduced at low temperatures (61% at 5 degrees C and 91% at 10 degrees C). In addition, feminisation efficiency was reduced substantially at low temperatures; at 10 degrees C, a calculated 85% of infected males were feminised, but at 5 degrees C only 49% were feminised. This is the first evidence for incomplete feminisation and temperature-dependent transmission and feminisation by this sex ratio distorter. We examine the consequences for parasite spread and maintenance in natural populations using a model to predict parasite prevalence in large populations. Reduced feminisation at low temperatures impedes the spread of the parasite so that it attains a substantially lower frequency, or may even be excluded, from host populations.     

Bottom–up regulation of parasite population densities in freshwater ecosystems

Theory predicts the bottom–up coupling of resource and consumer densities, and epidemiological models make the same prediction for host–parasite interactions. Empirical evidence that spatial variation in local host density drives parasite population density remains scarce, however. We test the coupling of consumer (parasite) and resource (host) populations using data from 310 populations of metazoan parasites infecting invertebrates and fish in New Zealand lakes, spanning a range of transmission modes. Both parasite density (no. parasites per m²) and intensity of infection (no. parasites per infected hosts) were quantified for each parasite population, and related to host density, spatial variability in host density and transmission mode (egg ingestion, contact transmission or trophic transmission). The results show that dense and temporally stable host populations are exploited by denser and more stable parasite populations. For parasites with multi‐host cycles, density of the ‘source’ host did not matter: only density of the current host affected parasite density at a given life stage. For contact‐transmitted parasites, intensity of infection decreased with increasing host density. Our results support the strong bottom–up coupling of consumer and resource densities, but also suggest that intraspecific competition among parasites may be weaker when hosts are abundant: high host density promotes greater parasite population density, but also reduces the number of conspecific parasites per individual host.     

Parasitism and maintenance of diversity in a fungal vegetative incompatibility system: the role of selection by deleterious cytoplasmic elements

In fungi, horizontal transmission of deleterious cytoplasmic elements is reduced by the vegetative incompatibility system. This self/non-self recognition system may select for greater diversity of fungal incompatibility phenotypes in a frequency-dependent manner but the link between the diversity of fungal phenotypes and the virulence of cytoplasmic parasites has been poorly studied. We used an epidemiological model to show that even when transmission between incompatibility types is permitted, parasite pressure can lead to high levels of polymorphism for vegetative incompatibility systems. Moreover, high levels of polymorphism in host populations can select for less virulent cytoplasmic parasites. This feedback mechanism between parasite virulence and vegetative incompatibility system polymorphism of host populations may account for the general avirulence of most known mycoviruses. Furthermore, this mechanism provides a new perspective on the particular ecology and evolution of the host/parasite interactions acting between fungi and their cytoplasmic parasites.     

Identifying Malaria Transmission Foci for Elimination Using Human Mobility Data

Humans move frequently and tend to carry parasites among areas with endemic malaria and into areas where local transmission is unsustainable. Human-mediated parasite mobility can thus sustain parasite populations in areas where they would otherwise be absent. Data describing human mobility and malaria epidemiology can help classify landscapes into parasite demographic sources and sinks, ecological concepts that have parallels in malaria control discussions of transmission foci. By linking transmission to parasite flow, it is possible to stratify landscapes for malaria control and elimination, as sources are disproportionately important to the regional persistence of malaria parasites. Here, we identify putative malaria sources and sinks for pre-elimination Namibia using malaria parasite rate (PR) maps and call data records from mobile phones, using a steady-state analysis of a malaria transmission model to infer where infections most likely occurred. We also examined how the landscape of transmission and burden changed from the pre-elimination setting by comparing the location and extent of predicted pre-elimination transmission foci with modeled incidence for 2009. This comparison suggests that while transmission was spatially focal pre-elimination, the spatial distribution of cases changed as burden declined. The changing spatial distribution of burden could be due to importation, with cases focused around importation hotspots, or due to heterogeneous application of elimination effort. While this framework is an important step towards understanding progressive changes in malaria distribution and the role of subnational transmission dynamics in a policy-relevant way, future work should account for international parasite movement, utilize real time surveillance data, and relax the steady state assumption required by the presented model.     

Vaccine-driven evolution of parasite virulence and immune evasion in age-structured population: the case of pertussis

Despite enormous success of mass immunization programs in reducing incidence of infectious diseases, vaccine-escape strains have emerged perhaps as a consequence of strong selection pressures exerted on parasites by vaccines. Pertussis presents a well-documented example. As a childhood infection, it exhibits age-specific transmission biased to children. Assuming different transmission rates between children and adults, I study, by means of an age-structured epidemic model, evolutionary dynamics of parasite virulence in a vaccinated population. I find that the age-structure does not affect the evolutionary dynamics of parasite virulence. Also, based on empirical data reporting antigenic divergence with vaccine strains and mutations in virulence-associated genes in pertussis populations, I allow for parallel occurrence of mutations in parasite virulence and associated immune evasion. I conclude that this simultaneous adaptation of both traits may substantially alter the evolutionary course of the parasite. In particular, higher values of virulence are favoured once the parasite is able to evade the transmission-blocking vaccine-induced immunity. On the other hand, lower values of virulence are selected for once the parasite evolves the ability to evade the virulence-blocking vaccine-induced immunity. I emphasize the importance of multi-trait evolution to assess the direction of parasite adaptation more accurately.     

Parasite strain coexistence in a heterogeneous host population

Heterogeneity in host susceptibility and transmissibility to parasite attack allows a lower transmission rate to sustain an epidemic than is required in homogeneous host populations. However, this heterogeneity can leave some hosts with little susceptibility to disease, and at high transmission rates, epidemic size can be smaller than for diseases where the host population is homogeneous. In a heterogeneous host population, we model natural selection in a parasite population where host heterogeneity is exploited by different strains to varying degrees. This partitioning of the host population allows coexistence of competing parasite strains, with the heterogeneity-exploiting strains infecting the more susceptible hosts, in the absence of physiological tradeoffs and spatial heterogeneity, and even for markedly different transmission rates. In our model, intermediate-strategy parasites were selected against: should coexistence occur, an equilibrium is reached where strains occupied only the extreme ends of trait space, under appropriate conditions selecting for lower R₀.     

Effects of host migration, diversity and aquaculture on sea lice threats to Pacific salmon populations

Animal migrations can affect disease dynamics. One consequence of migration common to marine fish and invertebrates is migratory allopatry-a period of spatial separation between adult and juvenile hosts, which is caused by host migration and which prevents parasite transmission from adult to juvenile hosts. We studied this characteristic for sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus clemensi) and pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) from one of the Canada's largest salmon stocks. Migratory allopatry protects juvenile salmon from L. salmonis for two to three months of early marine life (2-3% prevalence). In contrast, host diversity facilitates access for C. clemensi to juvenile salmon (8-20% prevalence) but infections appear ephemeral. Aquaculture can augment host abundance and diversity and increase parasite exposure of wild juvenile fish. An empirically parametrized model shows high sensitivity of salmon populations to increased L. salmonis exposure, predicting population collapse at one to five motile L. salmonis per juvenile pink salmon. These results characterize parasite threats of salmon aquaculture to wild salmon populations and show how host migration and diversity are important factors affecting parasite transmission in the oceans.     

HOST–PARASITE GENETIC INTERACTIONS AND VIRULENCE-TRANSMISSION RELATIONSHIPS IN NATURAL POPULATIONS OF MONARCH BUTTERFLIES

Evolutionary models predict that parasite virulence (parasite-induced host mortality) can evolve as a consequence of natural selection operating on between-host parasite transmission. Two major assumptions are that virulence and transmission are genetically related and that the relative virulence and transmission of parasite genotypes remain similar across host genotypes. We conducted a cross-infection experiment using monarch butterflies and their protozoan parasites from two populations in eastern and western North America. We tested each of 10 host family lines against each of 18 parasite genotypes and measured virulence (host life span) and parasite transmission potential (spore load). Consistent with virulence evolution theory, we found a positive relationship between virulence and transmission across parasite genotypes. However, the absolute values of virulence and transmission differed among host family lines, as did the rank order of parasite clones along the virulence-transmission relationship. Population-level analyses showed that parasites from western North America caused higher infection levels and virulence, but there was no evidence of local adaptation of parasites on sympatric hosts. Collectively, our results suggest that host genotypes can affect the strength and direction of selection on virulence in natural populations, and that predicting virulence evolution may require building genotype-specific interactions into simpler trade-off models.     

Host-parasite population dynamics under combined frequency- and density-dependent transmission

Many host‐parasite models assume that transmission increases linearly with host population density (‘density‐dependent transmission’), but various alternative transmission functions have been proposed in an effort to capture the complexity of real biological systems. The most common alternative (usually applied to sexually transmitted parasites) assumes instead that the rate at which hosts contact one another is independent of population density, leading to ‘frequency‐dependent’ transmission. This straight‐forward distinction generates fundamentally different dynamics (e.g. deterministic, parasite‐driven extinction with frequency‐ but not density‐dependence). Here, we consider the situation where transmission occurs through two different types of contact, one of which is density‐dependent (e.g. social contacts), the other density‐independent (e.g. sexual contacts). Drawing on a range of biological examples, we propose that this type of contact structure may be widespread in natural populations. When our model is characterized mainly by density‐dependent transmission, we find that allowing even small amounts of transmission to occur through density‐independent contacts leads to the possibility of deterministic, parasite‐driven extinction (and lowers the threshold for parasite persistence). Contrastingly, allowing some density‐dependent transmission to occur in a model characterized mainly by density‐independent contacts (i.e. by frequency‐dependent transmission) does not affect the extinction threshold, but does increase the likelihood of parasite persistence. The idea that directly transmitted parasites exploit different types of host contact is not new, but here we show that the impact on dynamics can be fundamental even in the simplest cases. For example, in systems where density‐dependent transmission is normally assumed de facto, we show that parasite‐driven extinction can occur if a small amount of transmission occurs through density‐independent contacts. Many empirical studies are still guided by the traditional density/frequency dichotomy, but our combined transmission function may provide a better model for systems in which both types of transmission occur.     

A model for the coevolution of immunity and immune evasion in vector-borne diseases with implications for the epidemiology of malaria

We describe a model of host-parasite coevolution, where the interaction depends on the investments by the host in its immune response and by the parasite in its ability to suppress (or evade) its host's immune response. We base our model on the interaction between malaria parasites and their mosquito hosts and thus describe the epidemiological dynamics with the Macdonald-Ross equation of malaria epidemiology. The qualitative predictions of the model are most sensitive to the cost of the immune response and to the intensity of transmission. If transmission is weak or the cost of immunity is low, the system evolves to a coevolutionarily stable equilibrium at intermediate levels of investment (and, generally, at a low frequency of resistance). At a higher cost of immunity and as transmission intensifies, the system is not evolutionarily stable but rather cycles around intermediate levels of investment. At more intense transmission, neither host nor parasite invests any resources in dominating its partner so that no resistance is observed in the population. These results may help to explain the lack of encapsulated malaria parasites generally observed in natural populations of mosquito vectors, despite strong selection pressure for resistance in areas of very intense transmission.     

Novel epidemiological model of gastrointestinal nematode infection to assess grazing cattle resilience by integrating host growth,parasite, grass and environmental dynamics

Gastrointestinal nematode (GIN) infections are ubiquitous and often cause morbidity and reduced performance in livestock. Emerging anthelmintic resistance and increasing change in climate patterns require evaluation of alternatives to traditional treatment and management practices. Mathematical models of parasite transmission between hosts and the environment have contributed towards the design of appropriate control strategies in ruminants, but have yet to account for relationships between climate, infection pressure, immunity, resources, and growth. Here, we develop a new epidemiological model of GIN transmission in a herd of grazing cattle, including host tolerance (body weight and feed intake), parasite burden and acquisition of immunity, together with weather-dependent development of parasite free-living stages, and the influence of grass availability on parasite transmission. Dynamic host, parasite and environmental factors drive a variable rate of transmission. Using literature sources, the model was parametrised for Ostertagia ostertagi, the prevailing pathogenic GIN in grazing cattle populations in temperate climates. Model outputs were validated on published empirical studies from first season grazing cattle in northern Europe. These results show satisfactory qualitative and quantitative performance of the model; they also indicate the model may approximate the dynamics of grazing systems under co-infection by O. ostertagi and Cooperia oncophora, a second GIN species common in cattle. In addition, model behaviour was explored under illustrative anthelmintic treatment strategies, considering impacts on parasitological and performance variables. The model has potential for extension to explore altered infection dynamics as a result of management and climate change, and to optimise treatment strategies accordingly. As the first known mechanistic model to combine parasitic and free-living stages of GIN with host feed-intake and growth, it is well suited to predict complex system responses under non-stationary conditions. We discuss the implications, limitations and extensions of the model, and its potential to assist in the development of sustainable parasite control strategies.     

From within-host interactions to epidemiological competition: a general model for multiple infections

Many hosts are infected by several parasite genotypes at a time. In these co-infected hosts, parasites can interact in various ways thus creating diverse within-host dynamics, making it difficult to predict the expression and the evolution of virulence. Moreover, multiple infections generate a combinatorial diversity of cotransmission routes at the host population level, which complicates the epidemiology and may lead to non-trivial outcomes. We introduce a new model for multiple infections, which allows any number of parasite genotypes to infect hosts and potentially coexist in the population. In our model, parasites affect one another''s within-host growth through density-dependent interactions and by means of public goods and spite. These within-host interactions determine virulence, recovery and transmission rates, which are then integrated in a transmission network. We use analytical solutions and numerical simulations to investigate epidemiological feedbacks in host populations infected by several parasite genotypes. Finally, we discuss general perspectives on multiple infections.     

SUBOPTIMAL VIRULENCE OF AN INSECT-PARASITIC NEMATODE

Recent considerations of parasite virulence have focused on the adverse effects that parasites can have on the survival of their hosts. Many parasites, however, reduce host fitness by an equally deleterious but different means, by causing partial or complete sterility of their hosts. A model of optimal parasite virulence is developed in which a quantity of host resources can be allocated to either host or parasite reproduction. Increases in parasite reproduction thus cause reductions in host fertility. The model shows that under a wide variety of ecological conditions, such parasites should completely sterilize their hosts. Only when opportunities for horizontal transmission are very limited should the parasites appropriate less than all of a host's reproductive resources. Field and laboratory evidence shows that the nematode parasite Howardula aoronymphium is relatively avirulent to one of its principal host species, Drosophila falleni, whereas it is much more virulent to D. putrida and D. neotestacea, suggesting that there may be substantial vertical transmission in D. falleni. However, epidemiological studies in the field and laboratory assays of host specificity strongly suggest that the three host species share a single parasite pool in natural populations, indicating that parasites in all three host species experience high levels of horizontal transmission. Thus, the low virulence of H. aoronymphium to D. falleni is not consistent with the model of optimal parasite virulence. It is proposed that this suboptimal virulence in D. falleni is a consequence of populations of H. aoronymphium being selected to exploit simultaneously several different host species. As a result, virulence may not be optimal in any one host. One must, therefore, consider the full range of host species in assessing a parasite's virulence.     

Contact-based transmission models in terrestrial gastropod populations infected with parasitic mites

Parasite transmission fundamentally affects the epidemiology of host-parasite systems, and is considered to be a key element in the epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases. Recent research has stressed the importance of detailed disease-specific variables involved in the transmission process. Riccardoella limacum is a hematophagous mite living in the mantle cavity of terrestrial gastropods. In this study, we experimentally examined whether the transmission success of R. limacum is affected by the contact frequency, parasite load and/or behaviour of the land snail Arianta arbustorum, a common host of R. limacum. In the experiment the transmission success was mainly affected by physical contacts among snails and slightly influenced by parasite intensity of the infected snail. Using these results we developed two different transmission models based on contact frequencies and transmission probability among host snails. As parameters for the models we used life-history data from three natural A. arbustorum populations with different population densities. Data on contact frequencies of video-recorded snail groups were used to fit the density response of the contact function, assuming either a linear relationship (model 1) or a second-degree polynomial relationship based on the ideal gas model of animal encounter (model 2). We calculated transmission coefficients (β), basic reproductive ratios (R₀) and host threshold population densities for parasite persistence in the three A. arbustorum populations. We found higher transmission coefficients (β) and larger R₀-values in model 1 than in model 2. Furthermore, the host population with the highest density showed larger R₀-values (16.47-22.59) compared to populations with intermediate (2.71-7.45) or low population density (0.75-4.10). Host threshold population density for parasite persistence ranged from 0.35 to 2.72 snails per m². Our results show that the integration of the disease-relevant biology of the organisms concerned may improve models of host-parasite dynamics.     

HOST GROWTH CONDITIONS INFLUENCE EXPERIMENTAL EVOLUTION OF LIFE HISTORY AND VIRULENCE OF A PARASITE WITH VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL TRANSMISSION

In parasites with mixed modes of transmission, ecological conditions may determine the relative importance of vertical and horizontal transmission for parasite fitness. This may lead to differential selection pressure on the efficiency of the two modes of transmission and on parasite virulence. In populations with high birth rates, increased opportunities for vertical transmission may select for higher vertical transmissibility and possibly lower virulence. We tested this idea in experimental populations of the protozoan Paramecium caudatum and its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Serial dilution produced constant host population growth and frequent vertical transmission. Consistent with predictions, evolved parasites from this “high‐growth” treatment had higher fidelity of vertical transmission and lower virulence than parasites from host populations constantly kept near their carrying capacity (“low‐growth treatment”). High‐growth parasites also produced fewer, but more infectious horizontal transmission stages, suggesting the compensation of trade‐offs between vertical and horizontal transmission components in this treatment. These results illustrate how environmentally driven changes in host demography can promote evolutionary divergence of parasite life history and transmission strategies.     

Parasite prevalence and the size of host populations: an experimental test

Although important in epidemiological theory, the relationship between the size of host populations and the prevalence of parasites has not been investigated empirically. Commonly used models suggest no relationship, but this prediction is sensitive to assumptions about parasite transmission. In laboratory populations, I manipulated the size of Tribolium castaneum flour beetle populations and measured the prevalence and distribution of a parasitic mite, Acarophenax tribolii. I found that parasite prevalence did not vary for a wide range of host population sizes. However, prevalence was lower in populations with less than 40 hosts. This effect cannot be attributed to changes in host population density because host density was held constant among treatments. The reduction in prevalence of small populations below a threshold that I observed is predicted by the extinction debt model, but it is not expected from models of host-parasite interactions that assume density-dependent transmission. The distribution of parasites, measured using Lloyd's patchiness index, was not affected by host population size. The mean crowding of parasites, however, was negatively related with host density. Finally, the prevalence of parasites in large populations did not differ from that found in sets of smaller patches as long as the smaller populations in aggregate were equivalent in size to the large population.     

Mechanistic models can reveal infection pathways from prevalence data: the mysterious case of polar bears Ursus maritimus and Trichinella nativa

Parasites exhibit a diverse range of life history strategies. Transmission to a host is a key component of each life cycle but the difficulty of observing host–parasite contacts has often led to confusion surrounding transmission pathways. Given limited data on most host–parasite systems, flexible approaches are needed for disentangling the obscure transmission dynamics of these systems. Here, we develop a modelling framework for formally testing long-standing hypotheses regarding how the parasitic nematode Trichinella nativa is maintained at high prevalences in polar bear populations. We evaluated transmission from marine prey, from scavenging terrestrial carrion, from cannibalism and from scavenging on dead infected bears as possible pathways, and assessed their respective importance by comparing model-projected prevalences for each mechanism against observed total and age-specific population prevalences in the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear subpopulation. Cannibalism and the scavenging on conspecifics have previously been assumed to be critical transmission pathways, but despite data scarcity, our model exposes these mechanisms as ineffective across a wide range of plausible parameter values. Instead, our analyses suggest that transmission from the consumption of infected marine prey, and in particular seals, can explain observed prevalence levels by itself, with other transmission pathways likely playing varying small contributing roles. Furthermore, our model suggests that transmission declines with bear age, perhaps due to age-dependent changes in diet or immunity. By formalising multiple transmission mechanisms in a unified, mathematical framework, we distilled several hypotheses to a likely main mode of T. nativa transmission to polar bears. The specifics of our model are tailored towards the T. nativa-polar bear system, but the approach is easily generalized; it provides a powerful, quantitative means for ecologists to explore competing hypothesis for parasite transmission and other difficult-to-observe animal interactions even in data-poor systems.     

DYNAMIC TRANSMISSION,HOST QUALITY,AND POPULATION STRUCTURE IN A MULTIHOST PARASITE OF BUMBLEBEES

The evolutionary ecology of multihost parasites is predicted to depend upon patterns of host quality and the dynamics of transmission networks. Depending upon the differences in host quality and transmission asymmetries, as well as the balance between intra‐ and interspecific transmission, the evolution of specialist or generalist strategies is predicted. Using a trypanosome parasite of bumblebees, we ask how host quality and transmission networks relate to parasite population structure across host species, and thus the potential for the evolution of specialist strains adapted to different host species. Host species differed in quality, with parasite growth varying across host species. Highly asymmetric transmission networks, together with differences in host quality, likely explain local population structure of the parasite across host species. However, parasite population structure across years was highly dynamic, with parasite populations varying significantly from one year to the next within individual species at a given site. This suggests that, while host quality and transmission may provide the opportunity for short‐term host specialization by the parasite, repeated bottlenecking of the parasite, in combination with its own reproductive biology, overrides these smaller scale effects, resulting in the evolution of a generalist parasite.