Impacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: Some emerging Australian examples

The effects of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity are well known for some high‐profile Australian marine systems, including coral bleaching and kelp forest devastation. Less well‐published are the impacts of climate change being observed in terrestrial ecosystems, although ecological models have predicted substantial changes are likely. Detecting and attributing terrestrial changes to anthropogenic factors is difficult due to the ecological importance of extreme conditions, the noisy nature of short‐term data collected with limited resources, and complexities introduced by biotic interactions. Here, we provide a suite of case studies that have considered possible impacts of anthropogenic climate change on Australian terrestrial systems. Our intention is to provide a diverse collection of stories illustrating how Australian flora and fauna are likely responding to direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic climate change. We aim to raise awareness rather than be comprehensive. We include case studies covering canopy dieback in forests, compositional shifts in vegetation, positive feedbacks between climate, vegetation and disturbance regimes, local extinctions in plants, size changes in birds, phenological shifts in reproduction and shifting biotic interactions that threaten communities and endangered species. Some of these changes are direct and clear cut, others are indirect and less clearly connected to climate change; however, all are important in providing insights into the future state of terrestrial ecosystems. We also highlight some of the management issues relevant to conserving terrestrial communities and ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic climate change.     

Climate change–contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework

Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change‐associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change–contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change–contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat‐soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein‐binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change–contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision‐making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socioeconomic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants.     

Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems

The main drivers of global environmental change (CO₂ enrichment, nitrogen deposition, climate, biotic invasions and land use) cause extinctions and alter species distributions, and recent evidence shows that they exert pervasive impacts on various antagonistic and mutualistic interactions among species. In this review, we synthesize data from 688 published studies to show that these drivers often alter competitive interactions among plants and animals, exert multitrophic effects on the decomposer food web, increase intensity of pathogen infection, weaken mutualisms involving plants, and enhance herbivory while having variable effects on predation. A recurrent finding is that there is substantial variability among studies in both the magnitude and direction of effects of any given GEC driver on any given type of biotic interaction. Further, we show that higher order effects among multiple drivers acting simultaneously create challenges in predicting future responses to global environmental change, and that extrapolating these complex impacts across entire networks of species interactions yields unanticipated effects on ecosystems. Finally, we conclude that in order to reliably predict the effects of GEC on community and ecosystem processes, the greatest single challenge will be to determine how biotic and abiotic context alters the direction and magnitude of GEC effects on biotic interactions.     

Above‐ and belowground biotic interactions facilitate relocation of plants into cooler environments

One important but largely unanswered question about floristic responses to climate change is how interactions such as competition, facilitation and plant–soil feedbacks will influence the ability of species to track shifting climates. In a rugged and moisture‐limited region that has recently warmed by 2° (Siskiyou Mountains, OR, USA), we planted three species into cooler aspects and elevations than those they currently inhabit, with and without removal of neighbouring plants, and tracked them over 2 years. Two species had higher success in cooler topographic locations, and this success was enhanced by neighbouring plants, which appeared to modulate minimum growing season temperatures. One species' success was also facilitated by the higher soil organic matter found in cooler sites. These results are a novel experimental demonstration of two important factors that may buffer climate change impacts on plants: rugged topography and plant–plant facilitation.     

Effects of climate change on parasitic plants: the root hemiparasiticOrobanchaceae

Climate change may affect hemisparasiticOrobanchaceae (ex-Scrophulariaceae) both directly through impacts on hemiparasite physiology and indirectly through impacts on host plants. This dual action suggests particular sensitivity of the parasite to climate change and any associated impacts on hosts and other members of the community. While little research has addressed the responses of parasitic plants to climate change in natural environments, impacts are predicted from controlled environment studies together with a knowledge of the key ecophysiological traits of hemiparasiticOrobanchaceae, in particular ofStriga species, which are important weeds in semi-arid tropical agro-ecosystems, andRhinanthus species, which can be important components of (principally) grassland communities in the northern temperate zone. The main mode of important components of (principally) grassland communities in the northern temperate zone. The main mode of action of both elevated CO₂ and warming will be through changes in photosynthesis and stomatal functioning. Enhanced photosynthesis of the hemiparasite and host will increase parasite carbon gains but may also increase the demand for host mineral nutrients. Mineral nutrition may, therefore, mediate the impacts of climate change on host-parasite associations. The relative insensitivity of hemiparasite stomata to elevated CO₂ suggests that high stomatal conductances may be maintained and thus solute uptake may become limited by soil drying driven by higher rates of evapotranspiration and reduced precipitation. Climate change impacts on host-parasite interactions at the individual level will ultimately affect hemiparasite impacts at the community level. Community impacts will be greatest where climate change considerably favours hemiparasite populations or, conversely, causes them to disappear from communities where they were formerly abundant. Impacts will further be mediated by climate impacts on hosts, and the natural enemies of hosts and parasites alike. Further, the wide host range of many root hemiparasitic plants may facilitate migration of their populations through new communities under a changing climate.     

From facilitation to competition: temperature‐driven shift in dominant plant interactions affects population dynamics in seminatural grasslands

Biotic interactions are often ignored in assessments of climate change impacts. However, climate‐related changes in species interactions, often mediated through increased dominance of certain species or functional groups, may have important implications for how species respond to climate warming and altered precipitation patterns. We examined how a dominant plant functional group affected the population dynamics of four co‐occurring forb species by experimentally removing graminoids in seminatural grasslands. Specifically, we explored how the interaction between dominants and subordinates varied with climate by replicating the removal experiment across a climate grid consisting of 12 field sites spanning broad‐scale temperature and precipitation gradients in southern Norway. Biotic interactions affected population growth rates of all study species, and the net outcome of interactions between dominants and subordinates switched from facilitation to competition with increasing temperature along the temperature gradient. The impacts of competitive interactions on subordinates in the warmer sites could primarily be attributed to reduced plant survival. Whereas the response to dominant removal varied with temperature, there was no overall effect of precipitation on the balance between competition and facilitation. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the relative importance of competitive interactions in seminatural grasslands across a wide range of precipitation levels, thereby favouring highly competitive dominant species over subordinate species. As a result, seminatural grasslands may become increasingly dependent on disturbance (i.e. traditional management such as grazing and mowing) to maintain viable populations of subordinate species and thereby biodiversity under future climates. Our study highlights the importance of population‐level studies replicated under different climatic conditions for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change impacts on plants.     

Toward sustainable climate change adaptation

Industrial ecology (IE) has made great contributions to climate change mitigation research, in terms of its systems thinking and solid methodologies such as life cycle assessment, material flow analysis, and environmentally extended input–output analysis. However, its potential contribution to climate change adaptation is unclear. Adaptation has become increasingly urgent in a continuously changing climate, especially in developing countries, which are projected to bear the brunt of climate‐change‐related damages. On the basis of a brief review of climate change impacts and adaptation literature, we suggest that IE can play an important role in the following two aspects. First, with the emphasis on a systems perspective, IE can help us determine how climate change interacts with our socio‐economic system and how the interactions may aggravate (or moderate) its direct impacts or whether they may shift burden to other environmental impacts. Second, IE methodologies can help us quantify the direct and indirect environmental impacts of adaptation activities, identify mitigation opportunities, and achieve sustainable adaptation. Further, we find that substantial investment is needed to increase the resilience of infrastructure (e.g., transport, energy, and water supply) and agriculture in developing countries. Because these sectors are also the main drivers of environmental degradation, how to achieve sustainable climate‐resilient infrastructure and agriculture in developing countries deserves special attention in future IE studies. Overall, IE thinking and methodologies have great potential to contribute to climate change adaptation research and policy questions, and exploring this growing field will, in turn, inspire IE development.     

Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review

Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer‐reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation.     

气候变化下生物交互作用对树线生态过程的影响

树线交错带是具有强烈生物交互作用的高寒生态过渡带,生物互作与树线生态过程密切相关。本研究系统综述了气候变化下植物间、动植物间和微生物与植物间互作因子对树线生态过程的影响。植物间互利或竞争作用的强度调控变暖背景下树线生态过程的变化,目前尚缺少树轮生态学证据,且亟待检验高阶互作的适用性;动物采食活动、微生物与植物间互作可通过影响土壤状况、改变树木生长和更新等生态过程动态,增强或削弱树线与气候间耦合关系。迄今为止,地下与地上过程联系如何影响气候变暖下的树线动态尚不明晰,而营养级间互作可能调制树线生态过程对气候响应。青藏高原等高寒区具有开展此类研究的优势与潜力。     

Effects of changes in soil moisture and precipitation patterns on plant-mediated biotic interactions in terrestrial ecosystems

Due to climate change, the amount, frequency, and intensity of precipitation worldwide are changing. There is increasing evidence that hydrological change severely affects species interactions and that these effects might overrule direct autecological responses, although this is currently understudied. Here, I synthesize published data on 405 interactions to show how changes in soil moisture affect the frequency or strength of plant-mediated biotic interactions. Despite substantial variation among published responses, general patterns have emerged. A recurrent finding in the synthesized studies is that dryness impedes beneficial interactions between plants and other organisms (decreased mycorrhization and infection with other symbiotic endophytes, less pollinator visits, less active decomposers) and increases detrimental interactions (increased performance of sucking insects, pathogen infection and competition between functionally similar plants). For increased wetness, which is far less studied, stress intensity seems to matter: Slightly increased precipitation often benefits plants and thereby associated interaction partners (increased mycorrhization and infection with symbiotic endophytes, increased herbivore performance), while extreme waterlogging or flooding impedes many interactions (decreased decomposer activity and mycorrhization). Legacy effects of changed soil moisture on plant community composition can amplify or reverse short-term effects on interactions. Although some concepts acknowledge the role of stress intensity (mild versus severe) and stress type (permanent versus pulsed) empirical research testing-related hypotheses is largely lacking, as is research on the role of soil moisture legacies for interactions.     

Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change

There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the ‘knowns’ but also ‘unknowns’ resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.     

Use and misuse of the IUCN Red List Criteria in projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity

Recent attempts at projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity have used the IUCN Red List Criteria to obtain estimates of extinction rates based on projected range shifts. In these studies, the Criteria are often misapplied, potentially introducing substantial bias and uncertainty. These misapplications include arbitrary changes to temporal and spatial scales; confusion of the spatial variables; and assume a linear relationship between abundance and range area. Using the IUCN Red List Criteria to identify which species are threatened by climate change presents special problems and uncertainties, especially for shorter‐lived species. Responses of most species to future climate change are not understood well enough to estimate extinction risks based solely on climate change scenarios and projections of shifts and/or reductions in range areas. One way to further such understanding would be to analyze the interactions among habitat shifts, landscape structure and demography for a number of species, using a combination of models. Evaluating the patterns in the results might allow the development of guidelines for assigning species to threat categories, based on a combination of life history parameters, characteristics of the landscapes in which they live, and projected range changes.     

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.     

Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming

Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species'' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns.     

Winter climate change in plant–soil systems: summary of recent findings and future perspectives

The winter climate is changing in many parts of the world, and it is predicted that winter climate change will modify the structure and function of plant–soil systems. An understanding of these changes and their consequences in terrestrial ecosystems requires knowledge of the linkage between above- and below-ground components as well as the species interactions found in plant–soil systems, which have important implications for biogeochemical cycles. However, winter climate-change studies have focused on only a part of the ecosystem or ecological process. We summarize here recent findings related to the effects of winter climate and its changes on soil nitrogen (N) dynamics, greenhouse gas (N₂O) emissions from the soil, N use by individual plants, vegetation development, and interactions between vegetation and pollinators to generate an integrative understanding of the response of the plant–soil system to winter climate change. This review indicates that the net effects on plants, soil microbes, pollinators, and the associated biogeochemical cycles are balanced among several processes and are highly variable depending on the context, such as the target species/functional group, original winter condition of the habitat, and type of climate change. The consequences of winter climate change for species interactions among plants, associated animals, and biogeochemical cycles are largely unknown. For further research, a large-scale comparative study to measure ecosystem-level functions is important, especially in less-cold ecosystems.     

A meta-analysis of the interactive effects of UV and drought on plants

Interactions between climate change and UV penetration in the biosphere are resulting in the exposure of plants to new combinations of UV radiation and drought. In theory, the impacts of combinations of UV and drought may be additive, synergistic or antagonistic. Lack of understanding of the impacts of combined treatments creates substantial uncertainties that hamper predictions of future ecological change. Here, we compiled information from 52 publications and analysed the relative impacts of UV and/or drought. Both UV and drought have substantial negative effects on biomass accumulation, plant height, photosynthesis, leaf area and stomatal conductance and transpiration, while increasing stress-associated symptoms such as MDA accumulation and reactive-oxygen-species content. Contents of proline, flavonoids, antioxidants and anthocyanins, associated with plant acclimation, are upregulated both under enhanced UV and drought. In plants exposed to both UV and drought, increases in plant defense responses are less-than-additive, and so are the damage and growth retardation. Less-than-additive effects were observed across field, glasshouse and growth-chamber studies, indicating similar physiological response mechanisms. Induction of a degree of cross-resistance seems the most likely interpretation of the observed less-than-additive responses. The data show that in future climates, the impacts of increases in drought exposure may be lessened by naturally high UV regimes.     

Ecological consequences through responses of plant and soil communities to changing winter climate

Community processes are now undergoing substantial reconfiguration because of climate change. Although the effects of climate change on ecosystems are currently a major concern, the issues tightly associated with winter climate change have been underrepresented. Given the importance of winter climate variables and events for determining the spatial distribution of communities and their phenological and physiological responses, and the functional roles of each species, all of which are expected to substantially influence community dis/re-assemble in the future, this review focuses on the ecological responses and consequences of terrestrial communities to changing winter climate. In particular, the effects on processes supported by biological interactions are largely undetermined. In this context, focusing on plant–soil feedback as a major interactive multi-system is worthwhile; these interactions can be disentangled through careful evaluation of the functional roles of organisms involved in the feedback (i.e., plants and soil organisms). The underlying mechanisms are indeed complex because direct (i.e., changes in physical conditions) and indirect pathways (i.e., plant-mediated influences on soil-organisms and vice versa) from winter climate change influence the functionality of future ecosystems. To face these issues, the framework of response–effect-traits deserves research priority since this can define community re-organization as the accumulated responses of individual species, which determines the stability and performance of ecosystem functioning. Thus, research that quantifies functional responses and roles of organisms under a changing climate will continue to be essential for the issues of winter climate change, which may become more serious and significant in the near future.     

How does climate change cause extinction?

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.     

Climate change and marine plankton

Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO(2) levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.     

Plant–pollinator interactions and phenological change: what can we learn about climate impacts from experiments and observations?

Climate change can affect plant–pollinator interactions in a variety of ways, but much of the research attention has focused on whether independent shifts in phenology will alter temporal overlap between plants and pollinators. Here I review the research on plant–pollinator mismatch, assessing the potential for observational and experimental approaches to address particular aspects of the problem. Recent, primarily observational studies suggest that phenologies of co‐occurring plants and pollinators tend to respond similarly to environmental cues, but that nevertheless, certain pairs of interacting species are showing independent shifts in phenology. Only in a few cases, however, have these independent shifts been shown to affect population vital rates (specifically, seed production by plants) but this largely reflects a lack of research. Compared to the few long‐term studies of pollination in natural plant populations, experimental manipulations of phenology have yielded relatively optimistic conclusions about effects of phenological shifts on plant reproduction, and I discuss how issues of scale and frequency‐dependence in pollinator behaviour affect the interpretation of these ‘temporal transplant’ experiments. Comparable research on the impacts of mismatch on pollinator populations is so far lacking, but both observational studies and focused experiments have the potential to improve our forecasts of pollinator responses to changing phenologies. Finally, while there is now evidence that plant–pollinator mismatch can affect seed production by plants, it is still unclear whether this phenological impact will be the primary way in which climate change affects plant–pollinator interactions. It would be useful to test the direct effects of changing climate on pollinator population persistence, and to compare the importance of phenological mismatch with other threats to pollination.