Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores

This review examines the direct effects of climate change on insect herbivores. Temperature is identified as the dominant abiotic factor directly affecting herbivorous insects. There is little evidence of any direct effects of CO₂ or UVB. Direct impacts of precipitation have been largely neglected in current research on climate change. Temperature directly affects development, survival, range and abundance. Species with a large geographical range will tend to be less affected. The main effect of temperature in temperate regions is to influence winter survival; at more northerly latitudes, higher temperatures extend the summer season, increasing the available thermal budget for growth and reproduction. Photoperiod is the dominant cue for the seasonal synchrony of temperate insects, but their thermal requirements may differ at different times of year. Interactions between photoperiod and temperature determine phenology; the two factors do not necessarily operate in tandem. Insect herbivores show a number of distinct life‐history strategies to exploit plants with different growth forms and strategies, which will be differentially affected by climate warming. There are still many challenges facing biologists in predicting and monitoring the impacts of climate change. Future research needs to consider insect herbivore phenotypic and genotypic flexibility, their responses to global change parameters operating in concert, and awareness that some patterns may only become apparent in the longer term.     

Niche width predicts extinction from climate change and vulnerability of tropical species

Climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, especially to tropical species. Yet, why tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change remains unclear. Tropical species are thought to have narrower physiological tolerances to temperature, and they have already experienced a higher estimated frequency of climate-related local extinctions. These two patterns suggest that tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change because they have narrower thermal niche widths. However, no studies have tested whether species with narrower climatic niche widths for temperature have experienced more local extinctions, and if these narrower niche widths can explain the higher frequency of tropical local extinctions. Here, we test these ideas using resurvey data from 538 plant and animal species from 10 studies. We found that mean niche widths among species and the extent of climate change (increase in maximum annual temperatures) together explained most variation (>75%) in the frequency of local extinction among studies. Surprisingly, neither latitude nor occurrence in the tropics alone significantly predicted local extinction among studies, but latitude and niche widths were strongly inversely related. Niche width also significantly predicted local extinction among species, as well as among and (sometimes) within studies. Overall, niche width may offer a relatively simple and accessible predictor of the vulnerability of populations to climate change. Intriguingly, niche width has the best predictive power to explain extinction from global warming when it incorporates coldest yearly temperatures.     

Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co‐occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild

Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. Understanding these interactions is thus essential for correctly predicting species' responses to climate change. We focussed on an avian forest guild of four hole‐nesting species with differing sensitivities to climate that show a range of well‐understood reciprocal interactions, including facilitation, competition and predation. We modelled the potential distributions of black woodpecker and boreal, tawny and Ural owl, and tested whether the spatial patterns of the more widespread species (excluding Ural owl) were shaped by interspecific interactions. We then modelled the potential future distributions of all four species, evaluating how the predicted changes will alter the overlap between the species' ranges, and hence the spatial outcomes of interactions. Forest cover/type and climate were important determinants of habitat suitability for all species. Field data analysed with N‐mixture models revealed effects of interspecific interactions on current species abundance, especially in boreal owl (positive effects of black woodpecker, negative effects of tawny owl). Climate change will impact the assemblage both at species and guild levels, as the potential area of range overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future. Boreal owl, the most climate‐sensitive species in the guild, will retreat, and the range overlap with its main predator, tawny owl, will increase in the remaining suitable area: climate change will thus impact on boreal owl both directly and indirectly. Climate change will cause the geographical alteration or disruption of species interaction networks, with different consequences for the species belonging to the guild and a likely spatial increase of competition and/or intraguild predation. Our work shows significant interactions and important potential changes in the overlap of areas suitable for the interacting species, which reinforce the importance of including relevant biotic interactions in predictive climate change models for increasing forecast accuracy.     

Predicted effects of climate change on potential sources of non‐indigenous marine species

Aim

We compare the present‐day global ocean climate with future climatologies based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models and examine whether changes in global ocean climate will affect the environmental similarity of New Zealand's (NZ) coastal environments to those of the rest of the world. Our underlying rationale is that environmental changes to source and recipient regions may result in changes to the risk of non‐indigenous species survival and establishment.

Location

Coastlines of global continents and islands.

Methods

We determined the environmental similarity (Euclidean distance) between global coastlines and north‐east NZ for 2005 and 2050 using data on coastal seawater surface temperature and salinity. Anticipated climate models from the SRES A1B scenario family were used to derive coastal climatologies for 2050.

Results

During the next decades, most global regions will experience an increase in coastal seawater surface temperatures and a decline or increase in salinity. This will result in changes in the similarity of other coastal environments to north‐east NZ's coastal areas. Global regions that presently have high environmental similarity to north‐east NZ will variously retain this level of similarity, become more similar or decrease in environmental similarity. Some regions that presently have a low level of similarity will become more similar to NZ. Our models predict a widespread decrease in the seasonal variation in environmental similarity to NZ.

Main conclusions

Anticipated changes in the global ocean climate have the potential to change the risk of survival and establishment of non‐indigenous marine species arriving to NZ from some global regions. Predicted changes to global human transport networks over the coming decades highlight the importance of incorporating climate change into conservation planning and modelling.

     

The effect of light and seed mass on seed germination of common herbaceous species from the eastern Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau

Smaller seeds might encounter more severe selective pressure than larger ones because they have fewer food reserves and are more easily buried; thus, seed mass can be considered to be directly related to the effect of light on germination. To investigate the effect of light on seed germination and associated seed mass variation within a whole plant community, we compiled germination data for common herbaceous species from an alpine meadow on the eastern Qinghai‐Tibet plateau. The results showed the following. (i) Light had a general positive effect on seed germination. Under light, the proportion of species with lower germinability was decreased, mean germination percentage was increased by 20% and the speed of germination was doubled. (ii) Irrespective of light environment, species with medium‐sized seeds (seed mass ranging from 0.11 to 0.5 mg) had higher germination percentage and speed when compared with species within the largest seed mass group. (iii) The germination of smaller‐seeded species was more dependent on light stimulation than larger‐seeded ones. In darkness, the species within the smallest seed mass group had the lowest percentage and speed of germination; however, under light, the species within the largest seed mass group had the lowest percentage and speed of germination. Our results suggested that the germination characteristics and especially seeds’ response to light among species in the alpine meadow might be an adaptation to natural selective pressure.     

Effects of climate change on species turnover and body mass frequency distributions of South African bird communities

Climate change will lead to substantial shifts in species distributions. Most of the predictions of shifting distributions rely on modelling future distributions with ecological niche models. We used these models to investigate (i) the expected species turnover, loss and gain within bird communities of four South African biomes and (ii) the expected changes in the body mass frequency distributions of these communities. We used distributional data of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, current climate data and two scenarios of future climate change for 2050 to build ensemble models of bird distributions. Our results indicate that future species loss, gain and turnover within the four biomes will be considerable. Climate change will also have statistically significant effects on body mass frequency distributions, and these effects differ substantially depending on the severity of future climate change. We discuss the possible ecological effects of these predicted changes on ecosystem interactions and functions.     

Forest defoliator outbreaks under climate change: effects on the frequency and severity of outbreaks of five pine insect pests

To identify general patterns in the effects of climate change on the outbreak dynamics of forest‐defoliating insect species, we examined a 212‐year record (1800–2011) of outbreaks of five pine‐defoliating species (Bupalus piniarius, Panolis flammea, Lymantria monacha, Dendrolimus pini, and Diprion pini) in Bavaria, Germany for the evidence of climate‐driven changes in the severity, cyclicity, and frequency of outbreaks. We also accounted for historical changes in forestry practices and examined effects of past insecticide use to suppress outbreaks. Analysis of relationships between severity or occurrence of outbreaks and detrended measures of temperature and precipitation revealed a mixture of positive and negative relationships between temperature and outbreak activity. Two moth species (P. flammea and Dendrolimus pini) exhibited lower outbreak activity following years or decades of unusually warm temperatures, whereas a sawfly (Diprion pini), for which voltinism is influenced by temperature, displayed increased outbreak occurrence in years of high summer temperatures. We detected only one apparent effect of precipitation, which showed Dendrolimus pini outbreaks tending to follow drought. Wavelet analysis of outbreak time series suggested climate change may be associated with collapse of L. monacha and Dendrolimus pini outbreak cycles (loss of cyclicity and discontinuation of outbreaks, respectively), but high‐frequency cycles for B. piniarius and P. flammea in the late 1900s. Regional outbreak severity was generally not related to past suppression efforts (area treated with insecticides). Recent shifts in forestry practices affecting tree species composition roughly coincided with high‐frequency outbreak cycles in B. piniarius and P. flammea but are unlikely to explain the detected relationships between climate and outbreak severity or collapses of outbreak cycles. Our results highlight both individualistic responses of different pine‐defoliating species to climate changes and some patterns that are consistent across defoliator species in this and other forest systems, including collapsing of population cycles.     

Phenology, ontogeny and the effects of climate change on the timing of species interactions

Climate change is altering the phenology of many species and the timing of their interactions with other species, but the impacts of these phenological shifts on species interactions remain unclear. Classical approaches to the study of phenology have typically documented changes in the timing of single life-history events, while phenological shifts affect many interactions over entire life histories. In this study, we suggest an approach that integrates the phenology and ontogeny of species interactions with a fitness landscape to provide a common mechanistic framework for investigating phenological shifts. We suggest that this ontogeny–phenology landscape provides a flexible method to document changes in the relative phenologies of interacting species, examine the causes of these phenological shifts, and estimate their consequences for interacting species.
Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 1–10     

Effect of temperature on humus respiration rate and nitrogen mineralization: Implications for global climate change

Respiration and nitrogen mineralization rates of humus samples from 7 Scots pine stands located along a climatic transect across the European continent from the Pyrenees (42°40) to northern Sweden (66°08) were measured for 14 weeks under laboratory conditions at temperatures from 5 °C to 25 °C. The average Q₁₀ values for the respiration rate ranged from about 1.0 at the highest temperature to more than 5 at 10 °C to 15 °C in the northernmost samples. In samples from more northern sites, respiration rates remained approximately constant during the whole incubation period; in the southern end of the transect, rates decreased over time. Respiration rate was positively correlated with incubation temperature, soil pH and CN ratio, and negatively with soil total N. Regressions using all these variables explained approximately 71% of the total variability in the respiration rate. There was no clear relation between the nitrogen mineralization rate and incubation temperature. Below 15 °C the N-mineralization rate did not respond to increasing temperature; at higher temperatures, significant increases were found for samples from some sites. A regression model including incubation temperature, pH, N_tot and CN explained 73% of the total variability in N mineralization. The estimated increase in annual soil respiration rates due to predicted global warming at the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere ranged from approximately 0.07×10¹⁵ to 0.13×10¹⁵ g CO₂ at 2 °C and 4 °C temperature increase scenarios, respectively. Both values are greater than the current annual net carbon storage in northern forests, suggesting a switch of these ecosystems from net sinks to net sources of carbon with global warming.     

Fire effects on insect herbivores in an oak savanna: the role of light and nutrients

Abstract.  1. Environmental heterogeneity created by prescribed burning provided the context for testing whether the distribution of an oak specialist (the lace bug, Corythuca arcuata ) could be explained by stoichiometric mismatches between herbivore and host plant composition.
2. Field observations showed that lace bug density was seven-fold higher in frequently burned than in unburned units.
3. Lace bug density did not increase with leaf nutrient concentrations, but was instead associated with higher light levels, higher concentrations of leaf carbon (C), lignin and total phenolics, and lower levels of cellulose. In addition, lace bugs reared on high-light leaves had higher levels of survivorship than those fed on low-light leaves.
4. Sampling restricted to full-sun leaves was used to test whether fire-related changes in leaf nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations have a secondary influence on lace bug success. This sampling provided only limited evidence for nutrient limitation, as decreases in leaf N and P were associated with an increase in lace bug mass but a decrease in density.
5. It is concluded that burning probably promotes lace bug population growth by increasing canopy openness, light penetration, and the availability of C-based metabolites, and thus simple stoichoimetric mismatches between herbivores and host plants are not of primary importance in this system.     

Thermodependent bacterial pathogens and mass mortalities in temperate benthic communities: a new case of emerging disease linked to climate change

In the temperate north-western Mediterranean Sea, large-scale disease outbreaks in benthic invertebrate species have recently occurred during climatic anomalies characterized by elevated seawater temperatures. One of the most affected species was the red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata , a key species of highly diverse communities dwelling in dim-lit habitats in the Mediterranean. From diseased P. clavata colonies, we isolated culturable bacteria associated to tissue lesions in order to investigate their potential as pathogens. Inoculation of four bacterial isolates onto healthy P. clavata in aquaria caused disease signs similar to those observed during the 2003 mortality event. The infection process was dependent on elevated seawater temperatures, in a range of values consistent with recordings performed in the field during the climatic anomalies. Among the four isolates, we identified a Vibrio coralliilyticus strain that showed virulence to P. clavata . This strain was re-isolated from diseased colonies during the experimentations. V. coralliilyticus has been previously identified as a thermodependent pathogen of a tropical coral species, emphasizing a causal role of this infectious agent in the P. clavata disease. Taking into consideration predicted global warming over the coming decades, a better understanding of the factors and mechanisms that affect the disease process will be of critical importance in predicting future threats to temperate gorgonians communities in the Mediterranean Sea.     

Effect of light on seed germination and seedling shape of succulent species from Mexico

Aims Light requirements for cactus seed germination have been considered to be associated with their adult plant height and seed mass, but this has not been thoroughly studied for other succulent species. In order to understand seed photosensitivity from desert species belonging to Asparagaceae (subfamily Agavoideae) and Cactaceae, we performed a germination experiment with and without light for 12 species and 2 varieties from 1 species from the Southern Chihuahuan Desert. We also determined if adult growth is totally determined by seedling 'growth form' in cacti.Methods We performed a germination experiment using light and darkness for 13 species from Southern Chihuahuan Desert: 10 rosette species (Asparagaceae), as well as 1 globose, 1 columnar and 2 varieties from 1 depressed-globose species (Cactaceae). The response variables were seed germination percentage and relative light germination (RLG). In addition, in order to determine if adult-globose cacti could have cylindrical seedlings, we calculated the shape index (height/width ratio) for Coryphanta clavata and Mammillaria compressa .Important findings All species were considered neutral photoblastic. Eleven species had similar seed germination in both light and dark conditions, and three taxa (M. compressa and the two varieties of Ferocactus latispinus) showed higher germination with light than without it. Agave salmiana, M. compressa and the two varieties of F. latispinus had higher RLG than the other species. Seed mass was an important factor because with higher seed mass there was lower dependence to light. These findings support the hypothesis that small seed mass and light requirements have coevolved as an adaptation to ensure germination. One adult-globose cactus species, M. compressa, and one adult-columnar species, C. clavata, had small seeds and neutral fotoblasticism. Seedlings from these two species exposed to light were cylindrical and those under darkness conditions were columnar. Perhaps seeds from this species are able to germinate in the dark because they produce columnar seedlings with the ability to emerge from greater soil depths where sunlight cannot penetrate.     

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km², and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901–1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961–2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in “space‐for‐time” studies where measures of a species’ traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.     

Modelling the responses of Andean and Amazonian plant species to climate change: the effects of georeferencing errors and the importance of data filtering

Aim Species distribution models are a potentially powerful tool for predicting the effects of global change on species distributions and the resulting extinction risks. Distribution models rely on relationships between species occurrences and climate and may thus be highly sensitive to georeferencing errors in collection records. Most errors will not be caught using standard data filters. Here we assess the impacts of georeferencing errors and the importance of improved data filtering for estimates of the elevational distributions, habitat areas and predicted relative extinction risks due to climate change of nearly 1000 Neotropical plant species. Location The Amazon basin and tropical Andes, South America. Methods We model the elevational distributions, or ‘envelopes’, of 932 Amazonian and Andean plant species from 35 families after performing standard data filtering, and again using only data that have passed through an additional layer of data filtering. We test for agreement in the elevations recorded with the collection and the elevation inferred from a digital elevation model (DEM) at the collection coordinates. From each dataset we estimate species range areas and extinction risks due to the changes in habitat area caused by a 4.5 °C increase in temperature. Results Amazonian and Andean plant species have a median elevational range of 717 m. Using only standard data filters inflates range limits by a median of 433 m (55%). This is equivalent to overestimating the temperature tolerances of species by over 3 °C – only slightly less than the entire regional temperature change predicted over the next 50–100 years. Georeferencing errors tend to cause overestimates in the amount of climatically suitable habitat available to species and underestimates in species extinction risks due to global warming. Georeferencing error artefacts are sometimes so great that accurately predicting whether species habitat areas will decrease or increase under global warming is impossible. The drawback of additional data filtering is large decreases in the number of species modelled, with Andean species being disproportionately eliminated. Main conclusions Even with rigorous data filters, distribution models will mischaracterize the climatic conditions under which species occur due to errors in the collection data. These errors affect predictions of the effects of climate change on species ranges and biodiversity, and are particularly problematic in mountainous areas. Additional data filtering reduces georeferencing errors but eliminates many species due to a lack of sufficient ‘clean’ data, thereby limiting our ability to predict the effects of climate change in many ecologically important and sensitive regions such as the Andes Biodiversity Hotspot.     

Differential effects of climate and species interactions on range limits at a hybrid zone: potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change

The relative contributions of climate versus interspecific interactions in shaping species distributions have important implications for closely related species at contact zones. When hybridization occurs within a contact zone, these factors regulate hybrid zone location and movement. While a hybrid zone''s position may depend on both climate and interactions between the hybridizing species, little is known about how these factors interact to affect hybrid zone dynamics. Here, we utilize SDM (species distribution modeling) both to characterize the factors affecting the current location of a moving North American avian hybrid zone and to predict potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on future distributions. We focus on two passerine species that hybridize where their ranges meet, the Black‐capped (Poecile atricapillus) and Carolina (P. carolinensis) chickadee. Our contemporary climate models predict the occurrence of climatically suitable habitat extending beyond the hybrid zone for P. atricapillus only, suggesting that interspecific interactions primarily regulate this range boundary in P. atricapillus, while climatic factors regulate P. carolinensis. Year 2050 climate models predict a drastic northward shift in suitable habitat for P. carolinensis. Because of the greater importance of interspecific interactions for regulating the southern range limit of P. atricapillus, these climate‐mediated shifts in the distribution of P. carolinensis may indirectly lead to a range retraction in P. atricapillus. Together, our results highlight the ways climate change can both directly and indirectly affect species distributions and hybrid zone location. In addition, our study lends support to the longstanding hypothesis that abiotic factors regulate species'' poleward range limits, while biotic factors shape equatorial range limits.     

Insects in a warmer world: ecological, physiological and life-history responses of true bugs (Heteroptera) to climate change

Focusing on the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula (Pentatomidae), in central Japan the effects of climate change on true bugs (Insecta: Heteroptera) are reviewed. In the early 1960s, the northern edge of the species's distribution was in Wakayama Prefecture (34.1°N) and distribution was limited by the +5°C coldest month (January) mean temperature isothermal line. By 2000, N. viridula was recorded 70 km further north (in Osaka, 34.7°N). Historical climate data were used to reveal possible causes of the northward range expansion. The increase of mean and lowest winter month temperatures by 1–2°C in Osaka from the 1950s to the 1990s improved potential overwintering conditions for N. viridula. This promoted northward range expansion of the species. In Osaka, adult diapause in N. viridula is induced after mid‐September, much later than in other local seed‐feeding heteropterans. This late diapause induction results in late‐season ineffective reproduction: some females start oviposition in autumn when the progeny have no chance of attaining adulthood and surviving winter. Both reproductive adults and the progeny die. A period from mid‐September to early November represents a phenological mismatch: diapause is not yet induced in all adults, but it is already too late to start reproduction. Females that do not start reproduction but enter diapause in September have reduced postdiapause reproductive performance: they live for a shorter period, have a shorter period of oviposition and produce fewer eggs in smaller egg masses compared with females that emerge and enter diapause later in autumn. To some extent, N. viridula remains maladapted to Osaka environmental conditions. Ecological perspectives on establishment in recently colonized areas are discussed. A review of available data suggests that terrestrial and aquatic Heteroptera species respond to climate change by shifting their distribution ranges, changing abundance, phenology, voltinism, physiology, behaviour, and community structure. Expected responses of Heteroptera to further climate warming are discussed under scenarios of slight (<2°C) and substantial (>2°C) temperature increase.