Testing the importance of auditory detections in avian point counts

ABSTRACT.   Recent advances in the methods used to estimate detection probability during point counts suggest that the detection process is shaped by the types of cues available to observers. For example, models of the detection process based on distance-sampling or time-of-detection methods may yield different results for auditory versus visual cues because of differences in the factors that affect the transmission of these cues from a bird to an observer or differences in an observer's ability to localize cues. Previous studies suggest that auditory detections predominate in forested habitats, but it is not clear how often observers hear birds prior to detecting them visually. We hypothesized that auditory cues might be even more important than previously reported, so we conducted an experiment in a forested habitat in North Carolina that allowed us to better separate auditory and visual detections. Three teams of three observers each performed simultaneous 3-min unlimited-radius point counts at 30 points in a mixed-hardwood forest. One team member could see, but not hear birds, one could hear, but not see, and the third was nonhandicapped. Of the total number of birds detected, 2.9% were detected by deafened observers, 75.1% by blinded observers, and 78.2% by nonhandicapped observers. Detections by blinded and nonhandicapped observers were the same only 54% of the time. Our results suggest that the detection of birds in forest habitats is almost entirely by auditory cues. Because many factors affect the probability that observers will detect auditory cues, the accuracy and precision of avian point count estimates are likely lower than assumed by most field ornithologists.     

Accuracy and precision of dolphin group size estimates

Estimating the number of dolphins in a group is a challenging task. To assess the accuracy and precision of dolphin group size estimates, observer estimates were compared to counts from large‐format vertical aerial photographs. During 11 research cruises, a total of 2,435 size estimates of 434 groups were made by 59 observers. Observer estimates were modeled as a function of the photo count in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Accuracy varied widely among observers, and somewhat less widely among dolphin species. Most observers tended to underestimate, and the tendency increased with group size. Groups of 25, 50, 100, and 500 were underestimated by <1%, 16%, 27%, and 47%, respectively, on average. Precision of group size estimates was low, and estimates were highly variable among observers for the same group. Predicted true group size, given an observer estimate, was larger than the observer estimate for groups of more than about 25 dolphins. Predicted group size had low precision, with coefficients of variation ranging from 0.7 to 1.9. Studies which depend on group size estimates will be improved if the tendency to underestimate group size and the high uncertainty of group size estimates are included in the analysis.     

Evaluation of three methods to estimate density and detectability from roadside point counts

Roadside point counts are often used to estimate trends of bird populations. The use of aural counts of birds without adjustment for detection probability, however, can lead to incorrect population trend estimates. We compared precision of estimates of density and detectability of whistling northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) using distance sampling, independent double-observer, and removal methods from roadside surveys. Two observers independently recorded each whistling bird heard, distance from the observer, and time of first detection at 362 call-count stops in Ohio. We examined models that included covariates for year and observer effects for each method and distance from observer effects for the double-observer and removal methods using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The best model of detectability from distance sampling included observer and year effects. The best models from the removal and double-observer techniques included observer and distance effects. All 3 methods provided precise estimates of detection probability (CV = 2.4–4.4%) with a range of detectability of 0.44–0.95 for a 6-min survey. Density estimates from double-observer surveys had the lowest coefficient of variation (2005 = 3.2%, 2006 = 1.7%), but the removal method also provided precise estimates of density (2005 CV = 3.4%, 2006 CV = 4.8%), and density estimates from distance sampling were less precise (2005 CV = 9.6%, 2006 CV = 7.9%). Assumptions of distance sampling were violated in our study because probability of detecting bobwhites near the observer was <1 or the roadside survey points were not randomly distributed with respect to the birds. Distances also were not consistently recorded by individual members of observer pairs. Although double-observer surveys provided more precise estimates, we recommend using the removal method to estimate detectability and abundance of bobwhites. The removal method provided precise estimates of density and detection probability and requires half the personnel time as double-observer surveys. Furthermore, the likelihood of meeting model assumptions is higher for the removal survey than with independent double-observers. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

ABUNDANCE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL BOTTLENOSE DOLPHINS ESTIMATED FROM TANDEM AERIAL SURVEYS

We describe a tandem aerial survey method for bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) that uses two aircraft and independent observer teams to conduct consecutive surveys of the same coastal strip one hour apart. Alternatively, one aircraft with one observer team surveys the same coastal strip twice over several hours. Using mark-recapture analysis, we corrected survey counts for visibility bias resulting from missing dolphin groups at the surface and submerged groups. Dolphin groups were considered "recaptured" when we determined that both observer teams had detected the same group. This tandem method is highly useful for estimating abundance (and visibility bias) for species where population closure may be assumed between flights. We assumed population closure between flights and matched groups using geographic location, group size, and expected travel rates. We derive a new variance estimator of population size which incorporates group-size variability commonly encounteted in cetacean surveys. From six tandem surveys conducted from 1991 to 1994, we estimated the abundance of southern California coastal bottlenose dolphins to be between 78 (95% CI 60-102) and 271 (240-306) animals, with an average of 140 (128-154). Variability in abundance estimates is likely due to seasonal and interannual movement of animals along the California and Baja California coast. Abundance estimates from tandem surveys averaged 53% higher than dolphin counts obtained from individual survey flights, demonstrating the importance of correcting for visibility bias.     

AERIAL SURVEYS FOR COASTAL DOLPHINS: ABUNDANCE OF HECTOR'S DOLPHINS OFF THE SOUTH ISLAND WEST COAST, NEW ZEALAND

Line-transect surveys of abundance depend critically on the estimation of detection probability, which includes corrections for availability and visibility. In this aerial line-transect survey for Hector's dolphin ( Cephalorhynchus hectori ) we recorded dive times from a helicopter to estimate the proportion of time that dolphins could be seen at or near the water surface and were therefore "available" to be counted. The proportion of available sightings that were counted on transect lines was estimated by comparing sightings by two independent teams of two observers in the fixed-wing plane. The survey covered the area between Farewell Spit and Milford Sound, off the west coast of the South Island of New Zealand. Survey effort was stratified according to existing distribution data. A total of 142 separate sightings was made on 1,355 km of trackline. Average availability for fifty Hector's dolphin groups observed from the helicopter (161 dive/surface cycles) was 46.3% (CV = 4.2%). Data from the two independent observer teams indicated that 96.2% (CV = 2.3%) of the dolphin groups that were at the surface and on the trackline were seen. The abundance estimate for the South Island west coast, corrected for visibility and availability, was 5,388 Hector's dolphins (CV = 20.6%). The total population estimate for South Island Hector's dolphins is 7,270 (CV = 16.2%).     

Species composition of skates (Rajidae) in commercial fisheries around the British Isles and their discarding patterns

Recent regulations have required European nations to report commercial landings of Rajidae (skates) to species level since 2008. Morphological similarities between some species, variability in colouration and regional differences in common names may compromise the accuracy of some of these data. An increased proportion of rajid landings reported by the U.K. (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) are now reported to species level (42% in 2008, rising to 92% in 2010). Recent landings (2007-2010) of Rajidae by the U.K. indicated that the majority of reported landings were made by otter trawl (55·9%), tangle and gillnet (18·7%) and beam trawl (15·5%). Approximately 70% of recent landings originated from four ICES Divisions: the Irish Sea (VIIa), western English Channel (VIIe), Bristol Channel (VIIf) and southern North Sea (IVc). Recent species-specific landings of Rajidae are appraised in terms of the species reported and the overall composition, and potential problems identified. Data from observer trips have been used to estimate the species composition of Rajidae taken in some of the main commercial fisheries operating around the British Isles, and these data are compared to landings. Although there was typically broad agreement between these data sets in terms of the main species landed, misidentification issues were apparent and Rajidae with highly patchy distributions may be under-represented in observer data. Data from observer trips were also used to examine the discard and retention pattern. Most rajid species were first retained from total lengths, L(T) , of 27-34 cm, with 50% retention occurring at between 49 and 51 cm and near-full retention at L(T) of 60-67 cm. Beam trawls captured a higher proportion of smaller individuals, whilst gillnets (>150 mm mesh size) caught proportionally more larger rajids.     

It counts who counts: an experimental evaluation of the importance of observer effects on spotlight count estimates

Spotlight surveys conducted by volunteers is a promising method to assess the abundance of nocturnally active mammals, but estimates are subject to bias if different observer groups differ in their ability to detect animals in the dark. We quantified the variation amongst volunteer spotlight observers with respect to their ability to detect and estimate distance to realistic animal silhouettes at different distances. Detection probabilities were higher for observers experienced in spotlighting mammals than for inexperienced observers, higher for observers with a hunting background compared with non-hunters and decreased as function of age but were independent of sex or educational background. If observer-specific detection probabilities were applied to real counting routes, point count estimates from inexperienced observers without a hunting background would only be 43 % (95 % CI, 39–48) of what inexperienced hunters with a hunting background would obtain and 29 % (25–33) of what experienced spotlight observers would detect. Mean estimated distances to objects did not deviate from true distances (no bias) but were highly imprecise. Female non-hunters estimated distances less precisely than other observers and precision increased with age. The study shows that observer effects may influence abundance estimates and underlines the importance of testing and accounting for observer effects when designing citizen science-based population survey programmes.     

Correcting observer effect bias in estimates of nesting success of a coastal bird,the White-fronted Plover Charadrius marginatus

Capsule A recently developed observer-effects model gives better estimates than the survival model.

Aims To compare the performance of the traditional survival model with that of an observer-effects model in estimating nesting success.

Methods We used survival data from 654 nests in a covariate-dependent extension of a maximum-likelihood estimator model to simultaneously estimate daily survival rate and observer effect on nesting success in four different sectors of a study site. Standard likelihood-ratio tests and Akaike's information criterion differences were used to compare model performances.

Results A significant (negative) observer effect was detected in one of four sectors of the study area, and was probably attributable to small mammal predators. Despite significantly higher predation risk during the laying period, there was a significant positive observer effect during the laying period, contrasting with a weak negative effect during the incubation period, suggesting that an observer's tracks around unattended nests reduced predation risk. Likelihood-ratio tests indicated a significantly better fit using the observer effects model versus the Mayfield survival model in four of six scenarios.

Conclusion The observer-effects model accounts for bias in estimates of nest survival rates, and is preferred over the survival model because the inclusion of observer effect as a variable does not over-parameterize the model.     

Improving Aquatic Warbler Population Assessments by Accounting for Imperfect Detection

Monitoring programs designed to assess changes in population size over time need to account for imperfect detection and provide estimates of precision around annual abundance estimates. Especially for species dependent on conservation management, robust monitoring is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of management. Many bird species of temperate grasslands depend on specific conservation management to maintain suitable breeding habitat. One such species is the Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola), which breeds in open fen mires in Central Europe. Aquatic Warbler populations have so far been assessed using a complete survey that aims to enumerate all singing males over a large area. Because this approach provides no estimate of precision and does not account for observation error, detecting moderate population changes is challenging. From 2011 to 2013 we trialled a new line transect sampling monitoring design in the Biebrza valley, Poland, to estimate abundance of singing male Aquatic Warblers. We surveyed Aquatic Warblers repeatedly along 50 randomly placed 1-km transects, and used binomial mixture models to estimate abundances per transect. The repeated line transect sampling required 150 observer days, and thus less effort than the traditional ‘full count’ approach (175 observer days). Aquatic Warbler abundance was highest at intermediate water levels, and detection probability varied between years and was influenced by vegetation height. A power analysis indicated that our line transect sampling design had a power of 68% to detect a 20% population change over 10 years, whereas raw count data had a 9% power to detect the same trend. Thus, by accounting for imperfect detection we increased the power to detect population changes. We recommend to adopt the repeated line transect sampling approach for monitoring Aquatic Warblers in Poland and in other important breeding areas to monitor changes in population size and the effects of habitat management.     

Could we obtain better estimates of plot species richness from multiple‐observer plant censuses?

Question: Could we better estimate plot species richness by asking several botanists to survey the same plots and using non‐parametric estimators of richness? Location: Two French deciduous forests. Methods: Using replicated, independent censuses made by 11 professional botanists on the same eight 100‐m² forest plots, the relative performance of different richness estimators (Lincoln‐Petersen, Jackknife 1&2, Chao 1&2, Bootstrap, Chao Mth, Darroch) and the variation in their performance with the number of botanists involved (teams with two to eight botanists) were investigated. The sensitivity of these estimators to the presence of misidentifications in the data was also assessed. Results: When misidentifications are removed, Chao Mth estimators converged fastest to true richness, but none of the tested estimators correctly accounted for differences in exhaustiveness between the teams. Finally, all estimators were highly sensitive to misidentifications. Conclusions: Richness estimators are of little help in the presence of misidentifications and are ineffective at removing between‐team discrepancies, thus strongly limiting their usefulness in practice. Methods are presented to show how surveys can be designed to remove misidentifications and limit between‐team discrepancies. A sensible sampling design for 100‐m² plots in temperate forests would involve triplets of botanists and correcting data with the Chao N1. Pairs of botanists would already significantly improve the richness estimates, but such estimates would still be biased low. However, further research is needed to design new richness estimators that are more robust to observer effects.     

Cementum annulation and age determination in Homo sapiens. I. Tooth variability and observer error

In order to test the feasibility of cementum annulations to estimate age in humans, observer error and tooth variability in cementum ring counts were evaluated in a sample of 42 mandibular canine and first premolar pairs. Additionally, two sectioning techniques were evaluated. Demineralized thin sections (7 micron) stained with hematoxylin are the preferred technique since their age related variance is greater than 75% for all tooth types examined. In contrast, less than 50% of the total variance was accounted for among individuals when mineralized sections (80 micron) stained with alizarin red were used. Intertooth variability in ring counts of demineralized sections was large between canines and premolars (43%). Premolars provide counts with lower interobserver error and are the preferred tooth. In an expanded sample (N = 51) of demineralized premolars, intraobserver and interobserver error accounted for 2% and 5% of the total variance, respectively. Evaluation of several experimental designs showed that increasing the number of slides per tooth has the greatest effect on reducing variance followed by increasing the number of observers. Increasing the number of observations has little effect. Cementum ring counts are measurable to a highly repeatable extent and provide a level of repeatability greater than that reported for the pubic symphysis and auricular surface aging techniques.     

On the Methodology of Nematode Extraction from Field Samples: Comparison of Methods for Soil Extraction

The commonly used nematode extraction methods were compared using three soil types and four nematode species. The comparison was repeated in three trials by the same operator to estimate operator reproducibility. Extraction efficiency was dependent upon method, soil type, and nematode species, and reproducibility was not particularly satisfactory for routine analyses. Extraction by any method tested was less than 50% efficient. Quantitative nematode extraction methodology needs serious attention.     

Childhood Overweight Prevalence in the United States: The Impact of Parent‐reported Height and Weight

Parent‐reported height and weight are often used to estimate BMI and overweight status among children. The quality of parent‐reported data has not been compared to measured data on a national scale for all race/ethnic groups in the United States. Parent‐reported height and weight for 2–17‐year‐old children in two national health interview surveys—the 1999–2004 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the 2003–2004 National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH)—were compared to measured values from a national examination survey—the 1999–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Compared to measured data, parent‐reported data overestimated childhood overweight in both interview surveys. For example, overweight prevalence among 2–17‐year‐olds was 25% (s.e. 0.2) using parent‐reported NHIS data vs. 16% (s.e. 0.6) using measured NHANES data. Parent‐reported data overestimated overweight among younger children, but underestimated overweight among older children. The discrepancy between reported and measured estimates arose mainly from reported height among very young children. For children aged 2–11 years, the mean reported height from NHIS was 3–6 cm less than mean measured height from NHANES (P < 0.001) vs. no difference among children aged 16–17 years. Measured data remains the gold standard for surveillance of childhood overweight. Although this analysis compared mean values from survey populations rather than parent‐reported and measured data for individuals, the results from nationally representative data reinforce previous recommendations based on small samples that parent‐reported data should not be used to estimate overweight prevalence among preschool and elementary school–aged children.     

Ebstein's Anomaly: Anatomo-echocardiographic correlation

Background

Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) measured by B-mode ultrasonography is a marker of atherosclerosis and is commonly used as an outcome in intervention trials. We have developed DICOM-based software that measures CIMT rapidly on multiple end-diastolic image frames. The aims of this study were to compare the performance of our new software with older bitmap-based CIMT measurement software and to determine whether a ten-fold increase in the number of measurements used to calculate mean CIMT would improve reproducibility.

Methods

Two independent sonographers recorded replicate carotid scans in thirty volunteers and two blinded observers measured CIMT off-line using the new DICOM-based software and older bitmap-based software. A Bland-Altman plot was used to compare CIMT results from the two software programs and t-tests were used to compare analysis times. F-tests were used to compare the co-efficients of variation (CVs) from a standard six-frame measurement protocol with CVs from a sixty-frame measurement protocol. Ordinary least products (OLP) regression was used to test for sonographer and observer biases.

Results

The new DICOM-based software was much faster than older bitmap-based software (average measurement time for one scan 3.4 ± 0.6 minutes versus 8.4 ± 1.8 minutes, p < 0.0001) but CIMT measurements were larger than those made using the alternative software (+0.02 mm, 95%CI 0.01–0.03 mm). The sixty-frame measurement protocol had worse reproducibility than the six-frame protocol (inter-observer CV 5.1% vs 3.5%, p = 0.004) and inter and intra-observer biases were more pronounced in the sixty-frame than the six-frame results.

Conclusion

While the use of DICOM-based software significantly reduced analysis time, a ten-fold increase in the number of measurements used to calculate CIMT did not improve reproducibility. In addition, we found that observer biases caused differences in mean CIMT of a magnitude commonly reported as significant in intervention trials. Our results highlight the importance of good study design with concurrent controls and the need to ensure that no observer drift occurs between baseline and follow-up measurements when CIMT is used to monitor the effect of an intervention.     

A method for measuring the size of early euphausiid larvae

A simple method to measure early euphausiid larvae is tested on 35 specimens of Euphausia superba obtained in the Weddell-Scotia Confluence region (ranging from Calyptopes I to Furcilia III) against the measures obtained on the same specimens with a graduated eyepiece. The arrangement of the test includes two observers, four magnifications (from 7.5× to 62.5×) whenever feasible and two replications of each measurement. A total of 953 measurements were analyzed in an incomplete random blocks ANOVA design not finding significant differences between magnifications, methods, observers and their interactions. It was found that the relative differences between methods were of the same magnitude as the differences between replications (approximately 5%). The proposed method is less demanding on laboratory work, thus allowing the measurement of the large number of specimens needed to estimate size frequency distributions.     

Effects of sampling teams and estimation methods on the assessment of plant cover

Abstract. We evaluated variability in cover estimation data obtained by (1) two sampling teams who double sampled plots and (2) one team that used two methods (line intercepts and visual estimation of cover classes) to characterize vegetation of herbaceous wetlands. Species richness and cover estimates were similar among teams and among methods, but one sampling team scored cover higher than the other. The line intercept technique yielded higher cover estimates but lower species richness estimates than the cover class method. Cluster analyses of plots revealed that 36% and 11% of plots sampled consecutively by two teams or using two methods, respectively, were similar enough in species composition and abundance to be paired together in the resulting clustering tree. Simplifying cover estimate data to presence/absence increased the similarity among both teams and methods at the plot scale. Teams were very similar in their overall characterization of sites when cover estimation data were used, as assessed by cluster analysis, but methods agreed best on their overall characterization of sites when only presence/absence data were considered. Differences in abundance estimates as well as pseudoturnover contribute to variability. For double sampled plots, pseudoturnover was 19.1%, but 57.7% of pseudo‐turnover cases involved taxa with ≤ 0.5% cover while only 3.4% involved taxa with > 8% cover. We suggest that vegetation scientists incorporate quality control, calibrate observers and publish their results.     

Brief communication: correcting overestimation when determining two-dimensional occlusal area in human molars

The robustness index (RI) is determined by multiplying dental mesiodistal and buccolingual diameters, and is used to estimate occlusal area. However, because teeth are not rectangular its calculation consistently causes overestimations. Moreover, teeth, in particular molars, are not identically shaped so overestimations vary. The current study seeks to determine the extent to which overestimations are affected by tooth shape and to improve RI's efficacy. Initially, 120 molars were sorted into six shape groups, which were determined by hypocone/hypoconulid expression. Three maxillary and three mandibular shape groups were set using the Arizona State University Dental Anthropology System. ANOVA results determined that RI overestimations, which averaged around 20%, were not the same for each shape category. Maxillary molars with large hypocones and mandibular molars with no hypoconulids were overestimated significantly less than the other molar groups. Regression-based correction formulae were generated and applied to the original sample. These formulae far more precisely estimated tooth area than RI and there were no differences in estimation based upon tooth shape. A subsequent validation study of 24 additional molars was undertaken to test the formulae on teeth not from the original sample. Overestimation/underestimation averaged 0.5% and was about the same for each of the tooth shape groups. Finally, six new correction formulae were generated using all 144 molars. The correction formulae provide, what is termed here, an adjusted robustness index (ARI), and it is recommended that ARI is used in future studies of molar occlusal area.     

The Wikipedia Gender Gap Revisited: Characterizing Survey Response Bias with Propensity Score Estimation

Opt-in surveys are the most widespread method used to study participation in online communities, but produce biased results in the absence of adjustments for non-response. A 2008 survey conducted by the Wikimedia Foundation and United Nations University at Maastricht is the source of a frequently cited statistic that less than 13% of Wikipedia contributors are female. However, the same study suggested that only 39.9% of Wikipedia readers in the US were female – a finding contradicted by a representative survey of American adults by the Pew Research Center conducted less than two months later. Combining these two datasets through an application and extension of a propensity score estimation technique used to model survey non-response bias, we construct revised estimates, contingent on explicit assumptions, for several of the Wikimedia Foundation and United Nations University at Maastricht claims about Wikipedia editors. We estimate that the proportion of female US adult editors was 27.5% higher than the original study reported (22.7%, versus 17.8%), and that the total proportion of female editors was 26.8% higher (16.1%, versus 12.7%).     

On the Stock Estimation for a Harvested Fish Population

We consider a stage-structured model of a harvested fish population and we are interested in the problem of estimating the unknown stock state for each class. The model used in this work to describe the dynamical evolution of the population is a discrete time system including a nonlinear recruitment relationship. To estimate the stock state, we build an observer for the considered fish model. This observer is an auxiliary dynamical system that uses the catch data over each time interval and gives a dynamical estimate of the stock state for each stage class. The observer works well even if the recruitment function in the considered model is not well known. The same problem for an age-structured model has been addressed in a previous work (Ngom et al., Math. Biosci. Eng. 5(2):337–354, 2008).     

Crown diameters of the deciduous teeth in Australian Aboriginals

Mesiodistal and buccolingual crown diameters were measured from dental casts representing the deciduous dentitions of 197 Aboriginal children from the Northern Territory of Australia. Double determination analysis indicated that the semi-automatic recording procedure used was reliable leading to observer errors of no practical significance. Tooth-size was greater in the male subjects but the sexual dimorphism was less marked than in the permanent teeth of the same subjects. The mandibular teeth were more uniform than maxillary with respect to buccolingual size relative to mesiodistal. Extremes of general tooth-size were more marked in the deciduous dentition than in the permanent as a consequence of the relatively large deciduous second molar which in Aboriginals approximates in size the permanent first molar of many other ethnic groups.