Aspirin in Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer: A Systematic Review of the Balance of Evidence from Reviews of Randomized Trials

Background

Aspirin has been recommended for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer, but overall benefits are unclear. We aimed to use novel methods to re-evaluate the balance of benefits and harms of aspirin using evidence from randomised controlled trials, systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Methods and Findings

Data sources included ten electronic bibliographic databases, contact with experts, and scrutiny of reference lists of included studies. Searches were undertaken in September 2012 and restricted to publications since 2008. Of 2,572 potentially relevant papers 27 met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of control arms to estimate event rates, modelling of all-cause mortality and L''Abbé plots to estimate heterogeneity were undertaken. Absolute benefits and harms were low: 60-84 major CVD events and 34-36 colorectal cancer deaths per 100,000 person-years were averted, whereas 46-49 major bleeds and 68-117 gastrointestinal bleeds were incurred. Reductions in all-cause mortality were minor and uncertain (Hazard Ratio 0.96; 95% CI: 0.90-1.02 at 20 years, Relative Risk [RR] 0.94, 95% CI: 0.88-1.00 at 8 years); there was a non-significant change in total CVD (RR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.69-1.06) and change in total cancer mortality ranged from 0.76 (95% CI: 0.66-0.88) to 0.93 (95% CI: 0.84-1.03) depending on follow-up time and studies included. Risks were increased by 37% for gastrointestinal bleeds (RR 1.37, 95% CI: 1.15-1.62), 54%-66% for major bleeds (Rate Ratio from IPD analysis 1.54, 95% CI: 1.30-1.82, and RR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.31-2.00), and 32%-38% for haemorrhagic stroke (Rate Ratio from IPD analysis 1.32; 95% CI: 1.00-1.74; RR 1.38; 95% CI: 1.01-1.82).

Conclusions

Findings indicate small absolute effects of aspirin relative to the burden of these diseases. When aspirin is used for primary prevention of CVD the absolute harms exceed the benefits. Estimates of cancer benefit rely on selective retrospective re-analysis of RCTs and more information is needed.     

The current burden of Japanese encephalitis and the estimated impacts of vaccination: Combining estimates of the spatial distribution and transmission intensity of a zoonotic pathogen

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a major cause of neurological disability in Asia and causes thousands of severe encephalitis cases and deaths each year. Although Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a WHO reportable disease, cases and deaths are significantly underreported and the true burden of the disease is not well understood in most endemic countries. Here, we first conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE to identify the areas suitable for sustained JEV transmission and the size of the population living in at-risk areas. We then estimated the force of infection (FOI) for JE-endemic countries from age-specific incidence data. Estimates of the susceptible population size and the current FOI were then used to estimate the JE burden from 2010 to 2019, as well as the impact of vaccination. Overall, 1,543.1 million (range: 1,292.6-2,019.9 million) people were estimated to live in areas suitable for endemic JEV transmission, which represents only 37.7% (range: 31.6-53.5%) of the over four billion people living in countries with endemic JEV transmission. Based on the baseline number of people at risk of infection, there were an estimated 56,847 (95% CI: 18,003-184,525) JE cases and 20,642 (95% CI: 2,252-77,204) deaths in 2019. Estimated incidence declined from 81,258 (95% CI: 25,437-273,640) cases and 29,520 (95% CI: 3,334-112,498) deaths in 2010, largely due to increases in vaccination coverage which have prevented an estimated 314,793 (95% CI: 94,566-1,049,645) cases and 114,946 (95% CI: 11,421-431,224) deaths over the past decade. India had the largest estimated JE burden in 2019, followed by Bangladesh and China. From 2010-2019, we estimate that vaccination had the largest absolute impact in China, with 204,734 (95% CI: 74,419-664,871) cases and 74,893 (95% CI: 8,989-286,239) deaths prevented, while Taiwan (91.2%) and Malaysia (80.1%) had the largest percent reductions in JE burden due to vaccination. Our estimates of the size of at-risk populations and current JE incidence highlight countries where increasing vaccination coverage could have the largest impact on reducing their JE burden.     

Sex-Specific Associations Between Diabetes Mellitus and Hearing Loss in the Middle-Aged and Elderly Individuals: A National Cohort Study of Chinese Adults

ObjectiveTo examine the association between diabetes and hearing loss and whether the association varied by sex.MethodsThis cohort study based on nationally representative data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study included 16 140 Chinese adults aged >45 years between 2011 and 2018. Diabetes was identified by blood glucose levels, HbA1c levels, and a self-reported diagnosis at baseline. The main outcome was self-reported incident hearing loss. Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed to estimate the risk of hearing loss.ResultsWe documented 2388 cases of hearing loss during a median 6.9 years of follow-up. The incidence rates were 29.64 (95% CI, 28.07-31.29) per 1000 person-years in women and 25.23 (95% CI, 23.77-26.78) per 1000 person-years in men. After adjustment, the hazard ratios of hearing loss associated with diabetes were 1.20 (95% CI, 1.01-1.42) for women and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.78-1.19) for men. Compared with poor control of the blood sugar levels, the odds ratio for hearing loss for women with good glycemic control was reduced from 5.08 (95% CI, 1.31-19.66) to 1.26 (95% CI, 0.69-2.28), and the corresponding odds ratio for men was 1.65 (95% CI, 0.61-4.44) to 0.50 (95% CI, 0.18-1.38).ConclusionIn conclusion, we identified a differential effect of sex on hearing loss risk with more pronounced effects for women. Our data suggest that good blood glucose level control is helpful to prevent hearing loss.     

MDM2 SNP309 is associated with endometrial cancer susceptibility: a meta-analysis

Epidemiological studies have investigated the association between MDM2 promoter SNP 309 (T/G) and endometrial cancer susceptibility. However, the results are still controversial. To obtain a more precise estimate of the relationship, we conducted a meta-analysis of 1,001 cases and 1,889 controls from 6 published case-control studies (one of five articles contains two studies) to estimate the effect of SNP309 on endometrial cancer risk. The strength of association between MDM2 SNP309 and endometrial cancer susceptibility was assessed by calculating pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). When all the eligible studies were pooled in the meta-analysis, we found that elevated endometrial cancer risk was significantly associated with GG variant genotype, however, heterozygous genotype TG seemed to be only a minor modifier on endometrial cancer risk (for GG vs. TT, OR?=?1.54, 95% CI?=?1.21-1.95, P?=?0.0004; for TG vs. TT, OR?=?0.96, 95% CI?=?0.81-1.14, P?=?0.66; for dominant model, OR?=?1.09, 95% CI?=?0.93-1.29, P?=?0.29; for recessive model, OR?=?1.65, 95% CI?=?1.33-2.04, P?相似文献   

Adverse childhood experiences: a meta-analysis of prevalence and moderators among half a million adults in 206 studies

Exposure to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), including maltreatment and family dysfunction, is a major contributor to the global burden of disease and disability. With a large body of international literature on ACEs having emerged over the past 25 years, it is timely to now synthetize the available evidence to estimate the global prevalence of ACEs and, through a series of moderator analyses, determine which populations are at higher risk. We searched studies published between January 1, 1998 and August 5, 2021 in Medline, PsycINFO and Embase. Study inclusion criteria were using the 8- or 10-item ACE Questionnaire (±2 items), reporting the prevalence of ACEs in population samples of adults, and being published in English. The review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022348429). In total, 206 studies (208 sample estimates) from 22 countries, with 546,458 adult participants, were included. The pooled prevalence of the five levels of ACEs was: 39.9% (95% CI: 29.8-49.2) for no ACE; 22.4% (95% CI: 14.1-30.6) for one ACE; 13.0% (95% CI: 6.5-19.8) for two ACEs; 8.7% (95% CI: 3.4-14.5) for three ACEs, and 16.1% (95% CI: 8.9-23.5) for four or more ACEs. In subsequent moderation analyses, there was strong evidence that the prevalence of 4+ ACEs was higher in populations with a history of a mental health condition (47.5%; 95% CI: 34.4-60.7) and with substance abuse or addiction (55.2%; 95% CI: 45.5-64.8), as well as in individuals from low-income households (40.5%; 95% CI: 32.9-48.4) and unhoused individuals (59.7%; 95% CI: 56.8-62.4). There was also good evidence that the prevalence of 4+ ACEs was larger in minoritized racial/ethnic groups, particularly when comparing study estimates in populations identifying as Indigenous/Native American (40.8%; 95% CI: 23.1-59.8) to those identifying as White (12.1%; 95% CI: 10.2-14.2) and Asian (5.6%; 95% CI: 2.4-10.2). Thus, ACEs are common in the general population, but there are disparities in their prevalence. They are among the principal antecedent threats to individual well-being and, as such, constitute a pressing social issue globally. Both prevention strategies and downstream interventions are needed to reduce the prevalence and mitigate the severity of the effects of ACEs and thereby reduce their deleterious health consequences on future generations.     

Recent Evolutionary History of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Subtype B—Response

Abstract The year of origin estimated by Lukashov and Goudsmit for HIV-1 subtype B is 1976 (95% CI, 1974–1977); this is significantly different from our prior estimate, 1967 (95% CI, 1960–1971). We review published evidence, which suggests that their estimate is too late.     

Annual survival rates of adult Red-necked Nightjars Caprimulgus ruficollis

Nothing is known about the survival rates of Nightjars. Here we estimate annual survival rates of adult Red-necked Nightjars Caprimulgus ruficollis in and around the Donana National Park, southwest Spain. During the period 1989-95, 557 adults were marked and 19.7% of them were recaptured at least once in subsequent years. Capture-recapture models were built to estimate separately survival and recapture probabilities. The final selected model showed that probabilities of recapture differed between years (0.06-0.30) but not between sexes, and were independent of recapture effort. Survival was dependent on the interaction between sex and rainfall, this effect being negative for females and positive for males. However, it is not clear why rainfall influences the survival of males and females differentially due to the lack of accurate information on other life history traits. Average adult survival for the whole period was 0.74 for males (95% CI: 0.63-0.82) and 0.64 for females (95% CI: 0.56-0.72).     

Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling

We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N=?73.5, 95% CI?=?64-94 in 2006; N=?50.4, 95% CI?=?49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N=?62.6, 95% CI?=?51-89 in 2006; N=?81.8, 95% CI?=?72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ=?0.93, 95% CI?=?0.74-1.17) and females (λ=?0.90, 95% CI?=?0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.     

Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: Assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions

Recurrent outbreaks of the avian H5N1 influenza virus in Asia represent a constant global pandemic threat. We characterize and evaluate hypothetical public health measures during the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland. The transmission rate, the recovery rate, the diagnostic rate, the relative infectiousness of asymptomatic cases, and the proportion of clinical cases are estimated through least-squares fitting of the model to epidemic curve data of the cumulative number of hospital notifications. The latent period and the case fatality proportion are taken from published literature. We determine the variance and identifiability of model parameters via a simulation study. Our epidemic model agrees well with the observed epidemic data. We estimate the basic reproductive number for the spring wave R1;=1.49 (95% CI: 1.45-1.53) and the reproductive number for the fall wave R2;=3.75 (95% CI: 3.57-3.93). In addition, we estimate the clinical reporting for these two waves to be 59.7% (95% CI: 55.7-63.7) and 83% (95% CI: 79-87). We surmise that the lower reporting in the first wave can be explained by a lack of initial awareness of the epidemic and the relative higher severity of the symptoms experienced during the fall wave. We found that effective isolation measures in hospital clinics at best would only ensure control with probability 0.87 while reducing the transmission rate by >76.5% guarantees stopping an epidemic.     

Periconceptional health and lifestyle factors of both parents affect the risk of live-born children with orofacial clefts

BACKGROUND: Nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL/P) or cleft palate only (CPO) are orofacial clefts and have a multifactorial etiology. The identification of amendable parental risk factors may contribute to a reduced occurrence of these malformations in the future. METHODS: Standardized demographic and periconceptional exposure data from 284 parents of a child with CL/P, 66 parents of a child with a CPO and 222 parents of a child without congenital malformations were collected at approximately 24 months after the periconceptional period of the index child. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to estimate relative risks by odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS: Univariate results suggest that low parental education, periconceptional maternal medication use and illnesses, paternal smoking, and first-trimester maternal common cold increased CL/P risk. Pregnancy planning and periconceptional folic acid supplementation, however, reduced CL/P risk by approximately 50% (OR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3-0.8) and 40% (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.9), respectively. Mostly comparable results were obtained for CPO. Being a boy (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4-3.0), folic acid supplementation (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.9), and low paternal education (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.0-2.3) mainly determined CL/P in the multivariate analyses, compared to low paternal (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 2.1-9.4) and maternal medication use (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0-4.0) for CPO. CONCLUSIONS: Preconceptional counseling for orofacial cleft risk assessment should pay attention to maternal medication use, periconceptional folic acid supplementation, and exposures of the father. These determinants can be amended, thereby modifying orofacial cleft risk.     

Estimating dengue transmission intensity from serological data: A comparative analysis using mixture and catalytic models

BackgroundDengue virus (DENV) infection is a global health concern of increasing magnitude. To target intervention strategies, accurate estimates of the force of infection (FOI) are necessary. Catalytic models have been widely used to estimate DENV FOI and rely on a binary classification of serostatus as seropositive or seronegative, according to pre-defined antibody thresholds. Previous work has demonstrated the use of thresholds can cause serostatus misclassification and biased estimates. In contrast, mixture models do not rely on thresholds and use the full distribution of antibody titres. To date, there has been limited application of mixture models to estimate DENV FOI.MethodsWe compare the application of mixture models and time-constant and time-varying catalytic models to simulated data and to serological data collected in Vietnam from 2004 to 2009 (N ≥ 2178) and Indonesia in 2014 (N = 3194).ResultsThe simulation study showed larger mean FOI estimate bias from the time-constant and time-varying catalytic models (-0.007 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): -0.069, 0.029) and -0.006 (95% CI -0.095, 0.043)) than from the mixture model (0.001 (95% CI -0.036, 0.065)). Coverage of the true FOI was > 95% for estimates from both the time-varying catalytic and mixture model, however the latter had reduced uncertainty. When applied to real data from Vietnam, the mixture model frequently produced higher FOI and seroprevalence estimates than the catalytic models.ConclusionsOur results suggest mixture models represent valid, potentially less biased, alternatives to catalytic models, which could be particularly useful when estimating FOI from data with largely overlapping antibody titre distributions.     

Individual differences in adolescent religiosity in Finland: familial effects are modified by sex and region of residence.

Data from 16-year-old Finnish twin pairs were used to estimate familial effects on religiosity and the modification of those effects by sex and residential region. The sample of 2265 twin boys and 2521 twin girls formed 779 monozygotic and 1614 dizygotic pairs, 785 of the same sex and 829 of opposite sex. We compared religiosity scores of twins living in more rural and traditional northern Finland with those living in the more urban and secular southern region. Girls had higher religiosity scores than did boys, and twins living in northern Finland had higher religiosity scores than those resident in southern Finland. Correlations for monozygotic twins were slightly higher than those for dizygotic twins, and covariance modeling found modest heritability of religiosity [11% (95% CI 0-24) for girls; 22% (95% CI 6-38) for boys], and substantial shared environmental effects [60% (95% CI 49-69) and 45% (95% CI 31-57)] among girls and boys, respectively. The correlation between shared environmental effects in boys and girls was estimated to be 0.84 (95% CI 0.73-0.99). In analyses distinguishing region of residence, girls living in southern Finland were found to have significantly higher unshared environmental effects than girls in northern Finland, while boys living in the urban south appeared to have lower shared environmental effects, and higher additive genetic effects, than boys living in the rural north.     

Malignant neoplasms after radiation therapy for peptic ulcer

Most information on radiation-related cancer risk comes from the Life Span Study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Stomach cancer mortality rates are much higher in Japan than in the U.S., making the applicability of LSS findings to the U.S. population uncertain. A unique cohort of U.S. patients who were irradiated for peptic ulcer to control gastric secretion provides a different perspective on risk. Cancer mortality data were analyzed and relative risks estimated for 3719 subjects treated by radiotherapy (mean stomach dose 14.8 Gy) and/or by surgery and medication during the period 1936-1965 and followed through 1997 (average 25 years). Compared to the U.S. rates, stomach cancer mortality was significantly increased for irradiated and nonirradiated patients (observed/expected = 3.20 and 1.52, respectively). We observed strong evidence of exposure-related excess mortality from cancer of the stomach (RR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3, 5.1), pancreas (RR 2.7, 95% CI 1.5, 5.1), and lung (RR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1, 2.1), with commensurate radiation dose responses in analyses that included nonexposed patients. However, the dose responses for these cancers were not significant when restricted to exposed patients. Our excess relative risk per gray estimate of 0.20 at doses 相似文献   

Thyroid cancer risk in areas of Ukraine and Belarus affected by the Chernobyl accident

The purpose of the present study was to analyze the thyroid cancer incidence risk after the Chernobyl accident and its degree of dependence on time and age. Data were analyzed for 1034 settlements in Ukraine and Belarus, in which more than 10 measurements of the (131)I content in human thyroids had been performed in May/June 1986. Thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for the birth years 1968-1985 and related to thyroid cancers that were surgically removed during the period 1990-2001. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the EAR dose response was 2.66 (95% CI: 2.19; 3.13) cases per 10(4) PY-Gy; for the quadratic coefficient, it was -0.145 (95% CI: -0.171; -0.119) cases per 10(4) PY-Gy(2). The EAR was found to be higher for females than for males by a factor of 1.4. It decreased with age at exposure and increased with age attained. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the ERR dose response was 18.9 (95% CI: 11.1; 26.7) Gy(-1); for the quadratic coefficient, it was -1.03 (95% CI: -1.46; -0.60) Gy(-2). The ERR was found to be smaller for females than for males by a factor of 3.8 and decreased strongly with age at exposure. Both EAR and ERR were higher in the Belarusian settlements than in the Ukrainian settlements. In contrast to ERR, EAR increases with time after exposure. At the end of the observation period, excess risk estimates were found to be close to those observed in a major pooled analysis of seven studies of childhood thyroid cancer after external exposures.     

Prevalence of Clostridium difficile Infection among Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: A Meta-Analysis of Published Studies

Several factors including antibiotic use, immunosuppression and frequent hospitalizations make solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients vulnerable to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies from 1991-2014 to estimate the prevalence of CDI in this patient population. We searched PubMed, EMBASE and Google Scholar databases. Among the 75,940 retrieved citations, we found 30 studies coded from 35 articles that were relevant to our study. Based on these studies, we estimated the prevalence of CDI among 21,683 patients who underwent transplantation of kidney, liver, lungs, heart, pancreas, intestine or more than one organ and stratified each study based on the type of transplanted organ, place of the study conduction, and size of patient population. The overall estimated prevalence in SOT recipients was 7.4% [95%CI, (5.6-9.5%)] and it varied based on the type of organ transplant. The prevalence was 12.7% [95%CI, (6.4%-20.9%)] among patients who underwent transplantation for more than one organ. The prevalence among other SOT recipients was: lung 10.8% [95% CI, (5.5%-17.7%)], liver 9.1 % [95%CI, (5.8%-13.2%)], intestine 8% [95% CI, (2.6%-15.9%)], heart 5.2% [95%CI, (1.8%-10.2%)], kidney 4.7% [95% CI, (2.6%-7.3%)], and pancreas 3.2% [95% CI, (0.5%-7.9%)]. Among the studies that reported relevant data, the estimated prevalence of severe CDI was 5.3% [95% CI (2.3%-9.3%)] and the overall recurrence rate was 19.7% [95% CI, (13.7%-26.6%)]. In summary, CDI is a significant complication after SOT and preventive strategies are important in order to reduce the CDI related morbidity and mortality.     

Cancer mortality following in utero exposure among offspring of female mayak worker cohort members

Little is known about long-term cancer risks following in utero radiation exposure. We evaluated the association between in utero radiation exposure and risk of solid cancer and leukemia mortality among 8,000 offspring, born from 1948-1988, of female workers at the Mayak Nuclear Facility in Ozyorsk, Russia. Mother's cumulative gamma radiation uterine dose during pregnancy served as a surrogate for fetal dose. We used Poisson regression methods to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of solid cancer and leukemia mortality associated with in utero radiation exposure and to quantify excess relative risks (ERRs) as a function of dose. Using currently available dosimetry information, 3,226 (40%) offspring were exposed in utero (mean dose = 54.5 mGy). Based on 75 deaths from solid cancers (28 exposed) and 12 (6 exposed) deaths from leukemia, in utero exposure status was not significantly associated with solid cancer: RR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.49; ERR/Gy = -0.1 (95% CI < -0.1 to 4.1), or leukemia mortality; RR = 1.65, 95% CI 0.52 to 5.27; ERR/Gy = -0.8 (95% CI < -0.8 to 46.9). These initial results provide no evidence that low-dose gamma in utero radiation exposure increases solid cancer or leukemia mortality risk, but the data are not inconsistent with such an increase. As the offspring cohort is relatively young, subsequent analyses based on larger case numbers are expected to provide more precise estimates of adult cancer mortality risk following in utero exposure to ionizing radiation.     

Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park,South Africa

The onslaught on the World’s rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008) and white rhinos (2010) together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly’s estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487) was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956). The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564) overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183). Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas.     

Survival of Wood Duck Ducklings and Broods in Mississippi and Alabama

ABSTRACT Although North American wood ducks (Aix sponsa) are well-studied throughout their range, researchers know little about demographic and environmental factors influencing survival of ducklings and broods, which is necessary information for population management. We studied radiomarked female and duckling wood ducks that used nest boxes and palustrine wetlands at Noxubee National Wildlife Refuge (NNWR) in Mississippi, USA, in 1996–1999, and riverine wetlands of the Tennessee-Tombigbee Rivers and Waterway (TTRW) system in Alabama in 1998–1999. We estimated survival of ducklings and broods and evaluated potentially important predictors of duckling survival, including age and body mass of brood-rearing females, hatch date of ducklings, duckling mass, brood size at nest departure, inter-day travel distance by ducklings, site and habitat use, and daily minimum air temperature and precipitation. At NNWR, survival of 300 radiomarked ducklings ranged from 0.15 (95% CI = 0.04-0.27) to 0.24 (95% CI = 0.13-0.38) and was 0.21 (95% CI = 0.15-0.28) for 1996–1999. Our overall estimate of brood survival was 0.64 (n = 91; 95% CI = 0.54-0.73). At TTRW, survival of 129 radiomarked ducklings was 0.29 in 1998 (95% CI = 0.20-0.41) and 1999 (95% CI = 0.13-0.45) and was 0.29 (95% CI = 0.20-0.40) for 1998–1999. Our overall estimate of brood survival was 0.71 (n = 38; 95% CI = 0.56-0.85). At NNWR, models that included all predictor variables best explained variation in duckling survival. Akaike weight (w_i) for the best model was 0.81, suggesting it was superior to other models (<0.01 < w_i < 0.18). We detected 4 competing models for duckling survival at TTRW. Inter-day distance traveled by ducklings was important as this variable appeared in all 4 models; duckling survival was positively related to this variable. Patterns of habitat-related survival were similar at both study areas. Ducklings in broods that used scrub-shrub habitats disjunct from wetlands containing aggregations of nest boxes had greater survival probabilities than birds remaining in wetlands with such nest structures. Managers may increase local wood duck recruitment by promoting availability of suitable brood habitats (e.g., scrub-shrub wetlands) without aggregations of nest boxes that may attract predators and by dispersing nest boxes amid or adjacent to these habitats. We did not determine an optimal density of nest boxes relative to local or regional population goals, which remains important research and conservation needs.     

Reproduction and Survival of Yellowstone Bison

ABSTRACT The conservation of bison (Bison bison) from near extinction to >4,000 animals in Yellowstone National Park has led to conflict regarding overabundance and potential transmission of brucellosis (Brucella abortus) to cattle. We estimated survival and birth rates from 53 radiocollared adult female bison during 1995–2001, and we used calf:adult (C:A) ratios to estimate reproduction with the combined effects of pregnancy, fetal loss, and neonatal mortality during 1970–1997. Annual survival of adult females was high (0.92; 95% CI = 0.87-0.95) and constant. Birth rates differed by brucellosis status and age. Birth rates were 0.40 calves per female (95% CI = 0.15-0.65) for brucellosis-positive 3 year olds, 0.63 (95% CI = 0.39-0.87) for individuals testing negative, and 0.10 (95% CI = 0.00-0.24) for individuals contracting brucellosis that birth year (sero-converters). Birth rates were 0.64 (95% CI = 0.52-0.76) for brucellosis-positive individuals ≥4 years old, 0.81 (95% CI = 0.73-0.89) for brucellosis-negative individuals, and 0.22 (95% CI = 0.00-0.46) for sero-converters. Spring C:A ratios were negatively correlated with snow pack (β = −0.01 to −0.03, R² = 0.26-0.60, P < 0.05). Growth rate was highly elastic to adult survival (0.51), and juvenile survival (0.36) was 3 times more elastic than fecundity (0.12). Simulations suggested brucellosis eradication via vaccination would result in increased birth rates and a 29% increase in population growth (γ = 1.09), possibly leading to more bison movements outside the park. Our results will help park managers evaluate bison population dynamics and explore consequences of management actions and disease control programs.     

Association of gestational diabetes mellitus and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particle size

A predominance of small, dense low-density lipoproteins (LDL) is characteristic of the dyslipidemic state seen in type 2 diabetes. However, no study has investigated the association in gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), which is pathophysiologically similar to type 2 diabetes. We hypothesized that LDL particle size is reduced in GDM cases compared with controls. Gradient gel electrophoresis was used to characterize LDL subclass phenotypes in non-fasting intrapartum plasma from 105 GDM cases and 96 controls. All participants were free of pre-existing diabetes or hypertension. The authors used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for confounders. Women with this phenotype had a significant 4.9-fold (95 % CI: 1.1-23.2) increased risk of GDM compared with those with the large, buoyant phenotype. The magnitude of this association was attenuated when plasma triglyceride and other confounders were included in the model (OR=4.2, 95 % CI: 0.5-39.5). Mean LDL particle size in GDM cases was smaller compared with controls (270.1 vs. 272.7A, p=0.003). The OR of GDM risk was 1.8 (95 % CI: 0.9-3.3) for every 10-A reduction in LDL particle size. Large prospective studies are needed to evaluate the association between smaller LDL particle size in early pregnancy with subsequent GDM risk.