Intercalibration of hydroacoustic and mark–recapture methods for assessing the spawning population size of a threatened fish species

Hydroacoustic counting and a three-year mark–recapture study with passive integrated transponders (PIT tags) were used to estimate the size of a spawning population of nase Chondrostoma nasus , a threatened potamodromous cyprinid that undertakes annual spawning migrations into a tributary of the Danube River. In 2005, the estimates of the size of the spawning population from the hydroacoustic counts ( N = 2234, 95% CL 1929–2538) and from the Jolly–Seber model ( N = 1198, 95% CL 461–5842) corresponded well. Estimates from the jackknife-estimator based on the hydroacoustic counts yielded slightly higher values ( N = 2783, 95% CL 2529–3037), but were still in the same order of magnitude as those from the hydroacoustic and mark–recapture approach. At low run-size, hydroacoustic counting was more time consuming and technically demanding than mark–recapture studies. At the same time, it was non-invasive, provided real-time data on a fine temporal scale, and estimates showed less variability than the Jolly–Seber model. Mark–recapture of fish in spawning streams involved substantial disturbance at a sensitive stage of the life cycle. Hence, hydroacoustics is highly suited for population estimates of threatened potamodromous fishes, where interference needs to be minimized.     

Double-Observer Line Transect Methods: Levels of Independence

Summary .  Double-observer line transect methods are becoming increasingly widespread, especially for the estimation of marine mammal abundance from aerial and shipboard surveys when detection of animals on the line is uncertain. The resulting data supplement conventional distance sampling data with two-sample mark–recapture data. Like conventional mark–recapture data, these have inherent problems for estimating abundance in the presence of heterogeneity. Unlike conventional mark–recapture methods, line transect methods use knowledge of the distribution of a covariate, which affects detection probability (namely, distance from the transect line) in inference. This knowledge can be used to diagnose unmodeled heterogeneity in the mark–recapture component of the data. By modeling the covariance in detection probabilities with distance, we show how the estimation problem can be formulated in terms of different levels of independence. At one extreme, full independence is assumed, as in the Petersen estimator (which does not use distance data); at the other extreme, independence only occurs in the limit as detection probability tends to one. Between the two extremes, there is a range of models, including those currently in common use, which have intermediate levels of independence. We show how this framework can be used to provide more reliable analysis of double-observer line transect data. We test the methods by simulation, and by analysis of a dataset for which true abundance is known. We illustrate the approach through analysis of minke whale sightings data from the North Sea and adjacent waters.     

Estimating the population size of specialised solitary bees

Abstract.  1. Reliable methods for quantifying population size are crucial for strategies to conserve endangered wild-bee species. Estimates of population size obtained through survey walks were compared with estimates obtained through mark–recapture studies in 10 populations of the red-listed solitary bee Andrena hattorfiana in southern Sweden.
2. The mean number of bees observed during survey walks was strongly correlated with estimates of population size obtained with mark–recapture. It was found that 5.5–23.4% (mean 13.4%) of the total population was observed during an average survey walk.
3. One component in mark–recapture analysis is the measure of survival of individuals. In the largest bee population, females of A. hattorfiana that emerged in early season were found to forage for pollen on average 18.4 days.
4. The findings suggest that during large-scale surveys, for example re-inventories for red-listed species, the population size of solitary bees can be quantified reliably and effectively by performing survey walks in a two-step process. The first step consists of survey walks to establish the relationship between number of bee observations per survey walk and mark–recapture population size for a small set of populations. In the second, simple observation survey walks can be performed for a large set of populations. In each population of A. hattorfiana , it is recommended that at least six survey walks are performed.     

Mark–recapture estimates of recruitment, survivorship and population growth rate for the screwworm fly, Cochliomyia hominivorax

Abstract.  Pradel model mark–release–recapture estimates of survivorship, φ , recruitment, f , and the rate of density-independent population growth, λ , are presented for eight mark–recapture studies of the screwworm Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) from Costa Rica, totalling 19 573 released and 4476 recaptured flies. Corroborative estimates of survivorship and the rate of population growth based on an extensive review of the literature are also reported. Weighted-mean ± standard error of the mean (SEM) mark–release–recapture estimates of survivorship, recruitment and the rate of population growth were φ   =  0.798 ± 0.008, f   = 0.193 ± 0.008 and λ  = 1.005 ± 0.002, respectively. Population doubling time was estimated from λ at 139 days. Estimates of φ and λ from the literature both exceeded those calculated by mark–recapture methods and estimates of population doubling times were consequently shorter.     

Comparison of social networks derived from ecological data: implications for inferring infectious disease dynamics

1.  Social network analyses tend to focus on human interactions. However, there is a burgeoning interest in applying graph theory to ecological data from animal populations. Here we show how radio-tracking and capture–mark–recapture data collated from wild rodent populations can be used to generate contact networks.
2.  Both radio-tracking and capture–mark–recapture were undertaken simultaneously. Contact networks were derived and the following statistics estimated: mean-contact rate, edge distribution, connectance and centrality.
3.  Capture–mark–recapture networks produced more informative and complete networks when the rodent density was high and radio-tracking produced more informative networks when the density was low. Different data collection methods provide more data when certain ecological characteristics of the population prevail.
4.  Both sets of data produced networks with comparable edge (contact) distributions that were best described by a negative binomial distribution. Connectance and closeness were statistically different between the two data sets. Only betweenness was comparable. The differences between the networks have important consequences for the transmission of infectious diseases. Care should be taken when extrapolating social networks to transmission networks for inferring disease dynamics.     

An empirical evaluation of the African elephant as a focal species for connectivity planning in East Africa

Aim Large, charismatic and wide‐ranging animals are often employed as focal species for prioritizing landscape linkages in threatened ecosystems (i.e. ‘connectivity conservation’), but there have been few efforts to assess empirically whether focal species co‐occur with other species of conservation interest within potential linkages. We evaluated whether the African elephant (Loxodonta africana), a world‐recognized flagship species, would serve as an appropriate focal species for other large mammals in a potential linkage between two major protected area complexes. Location A 15,400 km² area between the Ruaha and Selous ecosystems in central Tanzania, East Africa. Methods We used walking transects to assess habitat, human activity and co‐occurrence of elephants and 48 other large mammal species (> 1 kg) at 63 sites using animal sign and direct sightings. We repeated a subset of transects to estimate species detectability using occupancy modelling. We used logistic regression and AIC model selection to characterize patterns of elephant occurrence and assessed correlation of elephant presence with richness of large mammals and subgroups. We considered other possible focal species, compared habitat‐based linear regression models of large mammal richness and used circuit theory to examine potential connectivity spatially. Results Elephants were detected in many locations across the potential linkage. Elephant presence was highly positively correlated with the richness of large mammals, as well as ungulates, carnivores, large carnivores and species > 45 kg in body mass (‘megafauna’). Outside of protected areas, both mammal richness and elephant presence were negatively correlated with human population density and distance from water. Only one other potential focal species was more strongly correlated with species richness than elephants, but detectability was highest for elephants. Main conclusions Although African elephants have dispersal abilities that exceed most other terrestrial mammals, conserving elephant movement corridors may effectively preserve habitat and potential landscape linkages for other large mammal species among Tanzanian reserves.     

Validation of mark‐recapture population estimates for invasive common carp,Cyprinus carpio,in Lake Crescent,Tasmania

A mark‐recapture study based on the Petersen method was implemented in 1998 to estimate the abundance of the invasive common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., in Lake Crescent, Tasmania. Multiple gear types were employed to minimise capture bias, with multiple capture and recapture events providing an opportunity to compute and compare Petersen and Schnabel estimates. A single Petersen estimate on recapture data and two Schnabel estimates – one each on mark (forward‐Schnabel estimate) and recapture (reverse‐Schnabel estimate) data – were conducted. An independent long‐term double tag study facilitated estimation of the annual natural mortality. Subsequent fish‐down of the population suggests that, in all likelihood, the carp have been eradicated from the lake, providing an unprecedented opportunity to verify the forward population estimates carried out in 1998. Results suggest that all three estimates were close to the true population size, with the reverse‐Schnabel estimate being the most accurate and within 1% of the true population in this relatively large lake (～2365 ha). Greater accuracy of the reverse‐Schnabel approach can be attributed to either minimised fish behavioural (i.e. gear susceptibility or avoidance) or computational bias associated with the forward‐Schnabel and Petersen approaches, respectively. While the original estimates served as a guide in eradication of carp from the lake, the ultimate validation provides a reliable framework for abundance estimation of this invasive fish in relatively large water bodies elsewhere.     

Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park,Ghana

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.     

A comparison of methods used to count the elephant population of the Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa

Evaluation of alternative techniques used to estimate elephant population sizes is important in order to assess the accuracy of the results obtained, upon which management decisions may be based. Data from annual helicopter surveys carried out in the Addo Elephant National Park (1978–97) are compared with registration counts obtained from intensive ground surveys in which all elephants within the park are individually known. On average, total population size estimated in aerial surveys is 8.0% lower than registration counts (n₁₉₉₇ = 251), aerial calf (< 1 year) counts are 48.8% lower than registration counts, and aerial carcass counts are 50% below the total number of deaths documented in ground surveys. Registration counts provide more accurate demographic data than aerial surveys, the results of which are shown to vary widely and unpredictably, thus compromising their value. Where population estimates rely exclusively on aerial surveys, replicate counts are recommended in order to generate confidence intervals.     

Application of photographic capture–recapture modelling to estimate demographic parameters for male Asian elephants

In addition to the threats of habitat loss and degradation, adult males of the Asian elephant Elephas maximus also face greater threats from ivory poaching and conflict with humans. To understand the impact of these threats, conservationists need robust estimates of abundance and vital rates specifically for the adult male segment of elephant populations. By integrating the identification of individual male elephants in a population from distinct morphology and natural markings, with modern capture–recapture (CR) sampling designs, it is possible to estimate various demographic parameters that are otherwise difficult to obtain from this long-lived and wide-ranging megaherbivore. In this study, we developed systematic individual identification protocols and integrated them into CR sampling designs to obtain capture histories and thereby estimate the abundance of adult bull elephants in a globally important population in southern India. We validated these estimates against those obtained from an independent method combining line-transect density estimates with age–sex composition data for elephants. The sampled population was open to gains and losses between sampling occasions. The abundance of adult males in the 176 km² study area was (SÊ ) = 134(14.20) and they comprised 14% (±1%) of the total elephant population. Time-specific abundance estimates for each sampling occasion showed a distinct increase in adult male numbers over the sampling period, explained by seasonal patterns of local migration. CR-based estimates for adult male abundance closely matched estimates from distance-based methods. Thus, while providing abundance data of comparable rigour and precision, photographic CR methods permit estimation of demographic parameters for the Asian elephant that are both urgently needed and difficult to obtain.     

How reliable are dung counts for estimating elephant numbers?

Dung counts are the most commonly used techniques for estimating elephant numbers in forests, yet there is considerable scepticism concerning their accuracy. Published accounts of dung counts show that they give estimates similar to those from other methods for vertebrates ranging in size from lizards to elephants. For ungulates, macropods and elephants there are strong correlations between estimates from dung counts and other methods. Thus, dung counts are as accurate or inaccurate as other methods for estimating vertebrate numbers, including elephants. Dung counts for elephants give estimates that are as precise as, and sometimes more precise than, those from aerial surveys of elephants. This is because the variance in dung density is usually low and results in a lower than expected variance for the final elephant estimate when combined with the variances of defecation and decay rates. Dung counts may be more appropriate than aerial surveys for monitoring small or declining elephant populations.     

Male-biased dispersal in a tropical Australian snake (Stegonotus cucullatus, Colubridae)

Sex-based differences in dispersal distances can affect critical population parameters such as inbreeding rates and the spatial scale of local adaptation. Males tend to disperse further than females in mammals, whereas the reverse is true for birds; too few reptiles have been studied to reveal generalities for that group. Although reptiles are most diverse and abundant in the tropics, few tropical reptiles have been studied in this respect. We combine data from a long-term (10-year) mark–recapture study with genetic information (based on nine microsatellite markers) on slatey-grey snakes ( Stegonotus cucullatus , Colubridae) in the Australian wet-dry tropics. Males attain larger body sizes than females, and both genetic and mark–recapture data show that males also disperse further than females. Recapture records show that hatchling males dispersed away from their release points whereas hatchling females did not, and adult males moved further than adult females. In the genetic analysis, males contributed less to overall F _ST and relatedness than did females ( F _STm = 0.0025, F _STf = 0.0275, P  < 0.001; r _m = 0.0053; r _f = 0.0550; P  < 0.001). Spatial autocorrelation analyses within the largest population revealed a similar pattern, with spatial structuring stronger for females than males. Overall, our genetic analyses not only supported the mark–recapture data, but also extended our insights by revealing occasional long-distance dispersal not detected by the mark–recapture study.     

Evaluating performance of aerial survey data in elephant habitat modelling

Aerial survey data are widely used to model distribution of wildlife. However, their performance in habitat modelling remains largely untested. We used aerial survey and satellite‐linked Global Positioning System (GPS) collar data for elephants, to test (i) whether there is an optimal spatial resolution of predictor variables at which habitat models based on aerial survey data that are uncorrected for locational error can accurately predict elephant habitat and (ii) whether habitat models based on these data sets can accurately predict the presence of elephants in closed woodland habitats. We applied maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to these data sets and used the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as well as distance from water points as the habitat predictors to answer these questions. Our results demonstrate better ability of aerial survey data to predict elephant presence at the coarser spatial resolution of 1000 m of both predictor variables. Habitat models derived from aerial survey data underpredicted elephant presence in more closed woodland habitats than those derived from GPS collar data. This result implies that elephants located under dense tree canopies are likely missed during an aerial survey. Our study is one of the first to empirically test and report results on the poor performance of aerial survey data in habitat modelling especially in dense woodlands.     

Heard but not seen: an acoustic survey of the African forest elephant population at Kakum Conservation Area, Ghana

This study, designed to survey forest elephants ( Loxodonta africana cyclotis ) at Kakum Conservation Area, Ghana, is the first to apply acoustic methods to elephant abundance estimation and to compare results with independent survey estimates. Nine acoustic sensors gathered sound continuously for 38 days. Low-frequency calling rates have been established as useful elephant abundance indices at a Namibian watering hole and a central African forest clearing. In this study, we estimated elephant population size by applying an abundance index model and detection function developed in central Africa to data from simultaneous sampling periods on Kakum sensors. The sensor array recorded an average of 1.81 calls per 20-min sampling period from an effective detection area averaging 10.27 km². The resulting estimate of 294 elephants (95% CI: 259–329) falls within confidence bounds of recent dung-based surveys. An extended acoustic model, estimating the frequency with which elephants are silent when present, yields an estimate of 350 elephants (95% CI: 315–384). Acoustic survey confidence intervals are at least half as wide as those from dung-based surveys. This study demonstrates that acoustic surveying is a valuable tool for estimating elephant abundance, as well as for detecting other vocal species and anthropogenic noises that may be associated with poaching.     

Demography of a population with a long history of poaching and the utility of the individual identification technique as a tool for monitoring intermittently studied elephant populations

In many elephant populations in Africa, adverse effects of poaching including altered age and sex structure and long calving intervals continue to negatively impact the rate of recovery. The study reported here characterized the demographic status of the elephant population in Meru National Park, Kenya, so as to determine the size, age and sex structure, and calving interval of the population and to compare its demographic parameters against those from the relatively stable elephant population at Amboseli. Additionally, a demographic study conducted 7 years earlier enabled us to determine the demographic performance of the population and to explicitly test the utility of the individual identification technique in monitoring intermittently studied populations. We found 392 elephants in the park. The proportion of older individuals was lower, and the calving interval was longer than estimates from Amboseli. We recognized 16% of elephants indexed in the previous study. Our results suggest that the individual identification technique may be useful in monitoring demographic changes including poaching in intermittently studied elephant populations. Overall, our results suggest that although the Meru elephant population showed signs of recovery, poaching continues to imperil its recovery.     

Selective disturbance by elephants (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Loxodonta africana</Emphasis>) on eight tree species in a West African savannah

African elephants (Loxodonta africana) are ecosystem engineers in African savannahs, but their role in the modifications of the populations of trees by means of their browsing activities has been poorly studied so far in West Africa. We studied the disturbance of elephants to eight selected species of trees in the Nazinga Game Ranch (Burkina Faso), in 54 transects at the end of dry season 2008. We fitted simple models describing the number of dead individuals for each tree species in relation to their initial population density, and in relation to dung-pile density, in the assumption that there should be a positive relationship between elephant density and dung-pile density. Generalized Linear Model analyses and regression analyses showed that the more dense the woodland cover, the least the percentage of damaged plants by elephants. For each plant species, the initial density and density of elephant dung-piles explained a high proportion of the variance in the density of dead individuals. Stochastic models, generated by a purposely created simple computer program written in GW-BASIC programming language, predicted changes in tree and shrub abundance under different assumptions about elephant numbers. The models suggested that elephant browsing may cause considerable change in the selected plant populations, especially with regard to such species as Acacia gourmaensis, Vitellaria paradoxa and Maytenus senegalensis. These changes may possibly increase the meat harvest from controlled hunting activities, thus improving the income for surrounding communities.     

The influence of spatial scale on quantifying insect dispersal: an analysis of butterfly data

Abstract. 1. A linear relationship between mean movement distances recorded and the size of the study area was found in a comparison of five mark–release–recapture studies of the meadow brown butterfly.
2. The scale impact on mean butterfly movement distances was also apparent when comparing the results for different butterfly species reported in 21 mark–release–recapture studies.     

Elephant herbivory in Majete Wildlife Reserve,Malawi

Elephants have a major influence on vegetation structure, composition and ecosystem processes, and are primary agents of habitat change in Africa. At moderate‐to‐high population densities, elephants can damage vegetation, especially when enclosed in protected areas. This study examines the effects of elephant browsing on woody trees in Majete Wildlife Reserve (WR), south‐western Malawi. Regression analysis is used to assess the associations of six factors known to drive elephant browsing in other areas and determine which ones have the most influence on browsing at Majete WR. Twenty‐four per cent of tagged trees had been subject to elephant browsing. The model with vegetation type, stem diameter and distance from permanent water correctly predicted browsing for 80% of the observations. Elephants mostly favoured riparian woodlands, followed by Acacia‐dominated woodland and Brachystegia‐dominated woodland. Browsing occurrence was negatively related to distance from permanent water and diameter at breast height(DBH). A larger number of trees, sampled at random and covering a larger portion of the reserve would provide more reliable estimates of browsing and related factors. Knowledge of time‐ and site‐specific factors affecting elephant browsing can be used to forecast future habitat transformations and manipulate the range of the elephants within the reserve.     

Elephant survival,rainfall and the confounding effects of water provision and fences

Elephant are increasing across some areas of Africa leading to concerns that they may reduce woodlands through their feeding. Droughts may help limit elephant numbers, but they are generally both episodic and local. To explore more general impacts of rainfall, we examine how its annual variation influences elephant survival across ten sites. These sites span an almost coast-to-coast transect of southern Africa that holds the majority of the ~500,000 remaining savanna elephants. Elephants born in high rainfall years survive better than elephants born in low rainfall years. The relationship is generally weak, except at the two fenced sites, where rainfall greatly influenced juvenile survival. In these two sites, there are also extensive networks of artificial water. Rainfall likely affects elephant survival through its influence on food. The provision of artificial water opens new areas for elephants in the dry season, while fencing restricts their movements in the wet season. We conclude that the combination of these factors makes elephant survival more susceptible to reductions in rainfall. As a result, elephants living in enclosed reserves may be the first populations to feel the impacts of global warming which will decrease average rainfall and increase the frequency of droughts. A way to prevent these elephants from damaging the vegetation within these enclosed parks is for managers to reduce artificial water sources or, whenever practical, to remove fences.     

The influence of tree canopies and elephants on sub-canopy vegetation in a savannah

The apparent influence of elephants on the structure of savannahs in Africa may be enhanced by management activities, fire and other herbivores. We separated the effect elephants have on grasses, woody seedlings (<0.5 m) and saplings (0.5–2 m) from the effect of tree canopies (canopy effect), and herbivory (park effect). We defined the canopy effect as the differences between plant abundances and diversity indices under tree canopies and 20 m away from these. Our testing of the park effect relied on the differences in the sub-canopy plant indices inside and outside a protected area that supported a range of herbivores. We based our assessment of the elephant effect on sub-canopy vegetation indices associated with elephant induced reductions in tree canopies. The park and canopy effects were more pronounced than the elephant effect. The park effect suppressed the development of woody seedlings into saplings. Conditions associated with tree canopies benefited woody plants, but not the grasses, as their indices were lower under trees. Elephants reducing canopies facilitated grass species tolerant of direct solar radiation. We concluded that management should consider other agents operating in the system when deciding on reducing the impact that elephants may have on vegetation.