Age-dependency,climate, and environmental controls of recent tree growth trends at subarctic and alpine treelines

Spatial and temporal variability in growth and climate response of trees at and near treeline was investigated in the western Mackenzie Mountains, Northwest Territories, and the Hudson Bay Lowlands of northern Manitoba. Residual ring width chronologies were constructed using cores extracted from 108 trees in the mountains and 170 from the lowlands, and compared to historical climate data. Growth of most trees exhibited significant correlations with summer and autumn temperatures, and the growth–climate relationship did not differ noticeably between trees at and distal to treeline. Most mountain trees had significant positive growth trends from 1851 to 2006 that corresponded with warming over the same period, while growth trends varied among sites and species in the lowlands. Regionally, growth of all species responded positively to warming during the 20th century with the exception of lowland Picea mariana, which exhibited little response. Growth response for most trees was age-dependent, with trees established after 1920 demonstrating improved growth and sensitivity to temperature than older individuals, and growth of most species since the 1990s was greater than any time during the last 250 years, particularly for lowland Larix laricina. This study suggests that site factors and tree age can be more important drivers of local-scale growth trends than regional climate at arctic treelines where temperature is often assumed to be the main constraint on tree growth.     

竞争和气候对新疆阿尔泰山西伯利亚五针松树木径向生长的影响

阿尔泰山的北方森林是中亚以及全球的生态系统的重要组成部分, 其生长动态可以影响到全球范围的热辐射、碳平衡等。因此, 探究影响阿尔泰山树木径向生长的主要因素至关重要。该研究以新疆喀纳斯国家级自然保护区的西伯利亚五针松(Pinus sibirica)为研究对象, 建立西伯利亚五针松年表, 通过分析不同时间间隔累年生长量、竞争指数以及气候因子之间的关系, 运用线性混合效应模型、相关分析等方法, 探究竞争和气候对新疆阿尔泰山西伯利亚五针松树木径向生长的影响。结果表明: (1)线性混合效应模型结果显示竞争树胸径和与西伯利亚五针松过去30年的累年生长量之间的拟合效果最好; (2)标准年表与3月的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温之间有显著正相关关系; (3)累年生长量最高值出现在气温0-5 ℃, 竞争指数低于100的时候。累年生长量最低时, 气温达到-10 ℃, 竞争指数也超过了300。目标树的树木径向生长受到竞争树胸径和及生长季前期气温的影响, 两者共同作用。但相较于气候因子而言, 竞争对西伯利亚五针松的树木径向生长有更大的影响作用。     

Effect of temperature and precipitation on the annual diameter growth of Scots pine on drained peatlands and adjacent mineral soil sites in Finland

The climate conditions of the current and previous growing seasons have been shown to influence growth of coniferous trees in mineral soils sites. These dependencies may be different in peatlands where growth is generally more dependent on variations in soil water conditions. In the Nordic and Baltic countries, millions of hectares of peatlands and wetlands have been drained in order to enhance forest production. These drainage networks do not guarantee stable soil water conditions for the whole stand rotation. It is thus likely that precipitation in particular may have a different influence on annual growth in peatland to that in mineral soil sites. We studied the effect of precipitation and temperature on the inter-annual diameter growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Finland in drained peatland forests. The diameter growth data were limited to periods when growth response to drainage had levelled out. For comparison, growth data were also collected from adjacent mineral soil trees. The climate variables were monthly mean temperature and precipitation in a given location estimated from observations at the nearest weather stations by means of spatial smoothing. We used mixed linear models in describing the annual diameter growth of individual trees as a function of tree size and stand properties and expressed the residual variation as a function of climate parameters. The peatland and mineral soil growth variations showed different dependence on climate parameters. Peatland trees within 5 m of a ditch showed different climate responses compared to those located further away. Precipitation in July was negatively correlated with the diameter growth of peatland trees but there was no correlation with temperature. Growth of trees in mineral soils was positively correlated with March and April mean temperatures and May and June mean precipitation. The residual growth indices showed largely similar patterns in peatlands and mineral soil sites.     

Stable carbon isotope analysis reveals widespread drought stress in boreal black spruce forests

Unprecedented rates of climate warming over the past century have resulted in increased forest stress and mortality worldwide. Decreased tree growth in association with increasing temperatures is generally accepted as a signal of temperature‐induced drought stress. However, variations in tree growth alone do not reveal the physiological mechanisms behind recent changes in tree growth. Examining stable carbon isotope composition of tree rings in addition to tree growth can provide a secondary line of evidence for physiological drought stress. In this study, we examined patterns of black spruce growth and carbon isotopic composition in tree rings in response to climate warming and drying in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. We examined trees at three nested scales: landscape, toposequence, and a subsample of trees within the toposequence. At each scale, we studied the potential effects of differences in microclimate and moisture availability by sampling on northern and southern aspects. We found that black spruce radial growth responded negatively to monthly metrics of temperature at all examined scales, and we examined ?¹³C responses on a subsample of trees as representative of the wider region. The negative ?¹³C responses to temperature reveal that black spruce trees are experiencing moisture stress on both northern and southern aspects. Contrary to our expectations, ?¹³C from trees on the northern aspect exhibited the strongest drought signal. Our results highlight the prominence of drought stress in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. We conclude that if temperatures continue to warm, we can expect drought‐induced productivity declines across large regions of the boreal forest, even for trees located in cool and moist landscape positions.     

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse‐scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice‐rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half‐century, and much of these carbon‐rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape‐level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60‐year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape‐level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice‐rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.     

Effects of Climate, Site Conditions, and Seed Quality on Recent Treeline Dynamics in NW Russia: Permafrost and Lack of Reproductive Success Hamper Treeline Advance?

Treeline advance alters albedo and carbon storage and is an important feedback mechanism to the global climate system. Establishment of trees north of the treeline requires favorable climate, suitable microsites, and viable seeds. Here we studied the influence of climate and microsite conditions on tree and seedling growth at four transects from forest through woodland to tundra in NW Russia, and tested the viability of seeds from the region. General growth patterns and establishment periods of the treeline species Picea obovata are similar across the study sites suggesting a regional driver (for example, climate). Individuals established as early as the 1640s, but mainly between 1850 and 1880, and during a major and continental scale establishment wave in the 1950s and 1960s. No establishment occurred after 1982. Older trees mainly showed significant and stable positive relationships to growing year summer temperatures and significant stable negative correlations to previous year summer temperatures in nearly all plots. Trees from the last establishment wave showed more mixed responses, but current year summer temperature positively affected growth. Active layer depth was similar in all plots with trees but decreased sharply in treeless tundra. A major role for the lack of recent establishment seems to be very low seed viability, possibly combined with early strong fall frosts, which might have severely limited successful recruitment in the last decades of the twentieth century. For a successful establishment of P. obovata in tundra areas of NW Russia, permafrost degradation and (generally) warmer winters might be a prerequisite.     

Xylem traits of peatland Scots pines reveal a complex climatic signal: A study in the Eastern Italian Alps

Long-term climate reconstructions are frequently based on tree-ring high-resolution proxies extracted from subfossil peatland trees. Peatlands are peculiar ecosystems characterized by high moisture in the upper soil part which creates a harsh living environment for trees. The climate mostly indirectly influences tree growth determining seasonal variations in the water table level. Within this framework, the aim of this study was to investigate climate responses of trees (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing inside and outside a Southern Alpine peat bog, by using tree-ring and wood anatomical traits (e.g. tracheid number and dimension, cell-wall thickness). Our results showed differences in the xylem structure and climate signal recorded by peatland and mineral soil trees. Peatland trees were characterized by narrow rings and tracheids with thinner cell wall. Summer temperature and precipitation were the major drivers of xylem formation in peatland trees. At intra-annual level wood anatomical traits revealed a complex within-ring signal during the growing season. The multi-parameters approach together with the high-resolution gained by using tree-ring sectors allowed us to obtain new detailed information on the xylem development of peatland trees and climate drivers that influenced it.     

河北塞罕坝樟子松径向生长动态变化及其与气象因子的关系

树木是森林生态系统的基本组成, 其生长受气象因子的影响, 基于此, 该研究通过监测樟子松(Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica)的径向生长, 研究樟子松生长日动态规律、季节动态规律及其与气象因子的关系, 探讨河北塞罕坝地区樟子松森林生态系统对气候变化的响应机制。此外, 以往研究树木生长大多数基于树轮年代学, 缺少短期树木径向生长动态的研究。该研究利用径向生长记录仪监测河北塞罕坝机械林场内樟子松连续3年(2016-2018)的树干径向动态变化。结果表明: 由于树干的水分吸收与蒸腾作用, 樟子松树干径向昼夜变化呈现季节性规律, 可划分为4个阶段: 春季萌动期、夏季生长期、秋冬交替期和冬季休眠期。塞罕坝樟子松树干径向生长开始于每年4月初; 4月初至5月中旬为水分恢复阶段; 5月中旬至7月中旬为快速生长阶段; 7月中旬至10月中旬为缓慢生长阶段; 10月中、下旬生长趋于停止, 并有树干径向收缩现象。以一天为时间尺度, 在快速生长阶段(5月初至7月中旬)樟子松径向生长主要受空气温度的影响; 缓慢生长阶段(7月中旬至10月下旬)降水量、空气温度均影响樟子松径向生长。以15天为时间尺度, 温度对樟子松径向生长的影响显著。结果显示樟子松的生长动态规律及其影响因子, 为未来樟子松生理研究提供参考时间节点, 同时在极端低温与干旱的情况下, 为半干旱地区樟子松的生长状态提供参考依据。     

Production of Seeds and Cones and Consequences for Wood Radial Increment in Norway Spruce (Picea Abies (L.) Karst.)

Abstract

The presence of a trade–off between growth and reproduction was tested in four sites in a subalpine Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forest by measuring annual stem diameter increments at breast height and seed and cone productions during the periods 1962–1985 and 1983–1990, respectively. Trees growing in forest stands near the timber line (about 1900 m above sea level) had the greatest reduction in annual stem diameter increment during mast years; while trees growing at about 1300–1500 m above sea level did not show any reduction. Trees growing at about 1700 m showed only a limited reduction. At the same elevation, trees growing within closed forest stands suffered a greater reduction in stem growth when compared with trees growing at the edge of a cutting.     

Drought and the interannual variability of stem growth in an aseasonal,everwet forest

Linking drought to the timing of physiological processes governing tree growth remains one limitation in forecasting climate change effects on tropical trees. Using dendrometers, we measured fine‐scale growth for 96 trees of 25 species from 2013 to 2016 in an everwet forest in Puerto Rico. Rainfall over this time span varied, including an unusual, severe El Niño drought in 2015. We assessed how growing season onset, median day, conclusion, and length varied with absolute growth rate and tree size over time. Stem growth was seasonal, beginning in February, peaking in July, and ending in November. Species growth rates varied between 0 and 8 mm/year and correlated weakly with specific leaf area, leaf phosphorus, and leaf nitrogen, and to a lesser degree with wood specific gravity and plant height. Drought and tree growth were decoupled, and drought lengthened and increased variation in growing season length. During the 2015 drought, many trees terminated growth early but did not necessarily grow less. In the year following drought, trees grew more over a shorter growing season, with many smaller trees showing a post‐drought increase in growth. We attribute the increased growth of smaller trees to release from light limitation as the canopy thinned because of the drought, and less inferred hydraulic stress than larger trees during drought. Soil type accounted for interannual and interspecific differences, with the finest Zarzal clays reducing tree growth. We conclude that drought affects the phenological timing of tree growth and favors the post‐drought growth of smaller, sub‐canopy trees in this everwet forest. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.     

Shorebird Abundance Estimates in Interior Alaska

Interior Alaska, USA, is the least-studied region in Alaska for breeding shorebirds because of challenging accessibility and expectations of low densities and abundances. We estimated lowland and upland shorebird population sizes on 370,420 ha of military lands in interior Alaska boreal forest from May–July 2016 and 2017. We modified the Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM) protocol used elsewhere in Alaska and incorporated a probability-based sampling design and dependent double-observer methods. We pooled all lowland shorebird and all upland shorebird observations and estimated abundance using Huggins closed captures models in Program MARK. Estimated abundances of all lowland and upland shorebirds were 42,239 ± 13,431 (SE) and 3,523 ± 494, respectively. The survey area is important for shorebirds in Alaska. We estimate that military lands in interior Alaska support 45,762 ± 13,925 shorebirds, including 7 species of conservation concern. Higher abundance of lowland shorebirds was best explained by lower elevation, lower percent scrub canopy, and higher percent water on plots. Higher abundance of upland shorebirds was best explained by higher elevation and increased distance to wetland. Our modified Arctic PRISM protocol was effective for surveys in the boreal forest and we recommend continued use of method modifications for future shorebird surveys in boreal forests. Identifying baseline abundances of shorebirds using interior Alaska is an important step in monitoring distributional shifts and potential future population declines. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska through temperature thresholds

Northern and high‐latitude alpine treelines are generally thought to be limited by available warmth. Most studies of tree‐growth–climate interaction at treeline as well as climate reconstructions using dendrochronology report positive growth response of treeline trees to warmer temperatures. However, population‐wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely unexamined. We systematically sampled 1558 white spruce at 13 treeline sites in the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. Our findings of both positive and negative growth responses to climate warming at treeline challenge the widespread assumption that arctic treeline trees grow better with warming climate. High mean temperatures in July decreased the growth of 40% of white spruce at treeline areas in Alaska, whereas warm springs enhance growth of additional 36% of trees and 24% show no significant correlation with climate. Even though these opposing growth responses are present in all sampled sites, their relative proportion varies between sites and there is no overall clear relationship between growth response and landscape position within a site. Growth increases and decreases appear in our sample above specific temperature index values (temperature thresholds), which occurred more frequently in the late 20th century. Contrary to previous findings, temperature explained more variability in radial growth after 1950. Without accounting for these opposite responses and temperature thresholds, climate reconstructions based on ring width will miscalibrate past climate, and biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation models will overestimate carbon uptake and treeline advance under future warming scenarios.     

Snowmelt and early to mid‐growing season water availability augment tree growth during rapid warming in southern Asian boreal forests

Boreal forests are facing profound changes in their growth environment, including warming‐induced water deficits, extended growing seasons, accelerated snowmelt, and permafrost thaw. The influence of warming on trees varies regionally, but in most boreal forests studied to date, tree growth has been found to be negatively affected by increasing temperatures. Here, we used a network of Pinus sylvestris tree‐ring collections spanning a wide climate gradient the southern end of the boreal forest in Asia to assess their response to climate change for the period 1958–2014. Contrary to findings in other boreal regions, we found that previously negative effects of temperature on tree growth turned positive in the northern portion of the study network after the onset of rapid warming. Trees in the drier portion did not show this reversal in their climatic response during the period of rapid warming. Abundant water availability during the growing season, particularly in the early to mid‐growing season (May–July), is key to the reversal of tree sensitivity to climate. Advancement in the onset of growth appears to allow trees to take advantage of snowmelt water, such that tree growth increases with increasing temperatures during the rapidly warming period. The region's monsoonal climate delivers limited precipitation during the early growing season, and thus snowmelt likely covers the water deficit so trees are less stressed from the onset of earlier growth. Our results indicate that the growth response of P. sylvestris to increasing temperatures strongly related to increased early season water availability. Hence, boreal forests with sufficient water available during crucial parts of the growing season might be more able to withstand or even increase growth during periods of rising temperatures. We suspect that other regions of the boreal forest may be affected by similar dynamics.     

Drivers of stem radial variation and its pattern in peatland Scots pines: A pilot study

Dendrometers are useful tools to analyze intra-annual variation of radial growth in trees, but have rarely been applied in marginal environments. Our aim in this study was to explore stem radial variation (SRV) of Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing in a marginal environment on top of a peatland and compare it with stem radial variation of Scots pines growing in a nearby forest. We compared high-resolution (30 min) tree-growth of the peatland and forest pines in two consecutive years in two ways. First, we modeled raw SRV using site and weather parameters as predictors, to determine if and in what way stem radial variation depends on the site type. Second, we split the SRV signal into sub-series of varying length to test for differences between the time-series pattern of peatland and forest SRV with clustering methods and classifier models. We found indications that site type is influencing raw stem radial variation as: 1) an intercept, i.e. forest trees tended to grow more than peatland trees (as expected); 2) an interaction factor with structural and weather parameters, i.e. response of the forest trees to changing environmental parameters was different than the response of the peatland trees. Conversely, with regard to the temporal pattern of the stem radial variation, we found that the conditions within one year, e.g. weather patterns, were more important than site conditions, especially at short time scales. However, with increasing length of the sub-series the relative accuracy of the classifier models increased. Our results indicate that the site type was important for the raw SRV (amplitude) but not for the SRV pattern, which might be important to consider when comparing intra-annual signals from multiple sites.     

Climate‐diameter growth relationships of black spruce and jack pine trees in boreal Ontario,Canada

To predict the long‐term effects of climate change – global warming and changes in precipitation – on the diameter (radial) growth of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) trees in boreal Ontario, we modified an existing diameter growth model to include climate variables. Diameter chronologies of 927 jack pine and 1173 black spruce trees, growing in the area from 47°N to 50°N and 80°W to 92°W, were used to develop diameter growth models in a nonlinear mixed‐effects approach. Our results showed that the variables long‐term average of mean growing season temperature, precipitation during wettest quarter, and total precipitation during growing season were significant (alpha = 0.05) in explaining variation in diameter growth of the sample trees. Model results indicated that higher temperatures during the growing season would increase the diameter growth of jack pine trees, but decrease that of black spruce trees. More precipitation during the wettest quarter would favor the diameter growth of both species. On the other hand, a wetter growing season, which may decrease radiation inputs, increase nutrient leaching, and reduce the decomposition rate, would reduce the diameter growth of both species. Moreover, our results indicated that future (2041–2070) diameter growth rate may differ from current (1971–2000) growth rates for both species, with conditions being more favorable for jack pine than black spruce trees. Expected future changes in the growth rate of boreal trees need to be considered in forest management decisions. We recommend that knowledge of climate–growth relationships, as represented by models, be combined with learning from adaptive management to reduce the risks and uncertainties associated with forest management decisions.     

On the influence of tree size on the climate–growth relationship of New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis): insights from annual, monthly and daily growth patterns

Many tree-ring-based climate reconstructions are based on the assumption that the climate reaction of trees is independent of their size. Here, we test this assumption for New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis), one of the longest tree ring-based proxies for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The most recent kauri chronology contains a large amount of archaeological material, e.g. timber for which the original tree size is often unknown. We analyzed the climate–growth relationship of different-sized kauri in a pristine forest using different temporal scales, i.e. annually, monthly and daily data on tree growth and climate conditions. Trees of different life stages exhibited approximately the same seasonal growth peaks during austral spring (October and November). The dormancy period overlaps with the period where weekly air temperature maxima are below ca. 17–18 °C, and where the corresponding daily minima are below ca. 8 °C. However, both correlation functions between annual growth and seasonal climate as well as Kalman filter regressions between daily growth and climate conditions suggest an influence of tree size on the climate–growth relationship for kauri. Smaller trees (DBH < 40 cm) contain weaker climate signals than larger trees. Therefore, the precautionary stripping of near-pith material (first 20 cm) from kauri chronologies may result in more uniform responses to climate forcing and thus enhance the reliability of long-term climate reconstructions.     

Dendrochronological analysis of Sequoia sempervirens in an interior old-growth forest

Dendrochronological studies of large and old Sequoia sempervirens are limited by access and complex crossdating, but core sampling at regular height intervals along the main trunks of five standing trees allowed for reconstruction of growth, height, and age while providing within-tree replication for crossdating. We developed a crossdated ring-width chronology (1453–2015) for redwoods growing in an easternmost old-growth forest in the Napa Range of California, determined aboveground tree attributes, investigated the inter-annual climate-growth relationships since the late 19th century, and documented long-term growth trends. Age, height, f-DBH (functional diameter at breast height), and aboveground biomass of these co-dominant trees ranged from 241 to 783 years, 45.7 to 61.5 m, 117.0 to 226.9 cm, and 9.34 to 33.62 Mg, respectively. Bootstrapped correlation and response function analysis showed radial growth positively related to May through August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and negatively related to maximum June temperature (r ≥ │0.47│, P < 0.0001), explaining 33.3% of ring-width variation. Bootstrapped correlations over a moving 40-year window indicated strengthening relationships with PDSI and minimum temperature. The long-term growth trend, reflected by the size-detrended metric of residual wood volume increment (RWVI), varied over time and showed an average one-year decrease of 13.3% for 20th and 21st century droughts. A fire detected in August 1931 corresponded with a one-year decrease in RWVI of 43.1% followed by >100% increase within five years. Growth dynamics for redwoods in this interior forest provide a point of comparison for redwoods previously studied in old-growth forests along the latitudinal gradient, highlighting range-wide trends and site-specific differences in responses to climate and fire.     

Spatiotemporal variation in the relationship between boreal forest productivity proxies and climate data

The impacts of climate change on high-latitude forest ecosystems are still uncertain. Divergent forest productivity trends have recently been reported both at the local and regional level challenging the projections of boreal tree growth dynamics. The present study investigated (i) the responses of different forest productivity proxies to monthly climate (temperature and precipitation) through space and time; and (ii) the local coherency between these proxies through time at four high-latitude boreal Scots pine sites (coastal and inland) in Norway. Forest productivity proxies consisted of two proxies representing stem growth dynamics (radial and height growth) and one proxy representing canopy dynamics (cumulative May-to-September Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)). Between-proxy and climate-proxy correlations were computed over the 1982–2011 period and over two 15-yr sub-periods. Over the entire period, radial growth significantly correlated with current year July temperature, and height growth and cumulative NDVI significantly correlated with previous and current growing season temperatures. Significant climate responses were quite similar across sites, despite some higher sensitivity to non-growing season climate at inland sites. Significant climate-proxy correlations identified over the entire period were temporarily unstable. Local coherency between proxies was generally insignificant. The spatiotemporal instability in climate-proxy correlations observed for all proxies underlines evolving responses to climate and challenges the modelling of forest productivity. The general lack of local coherency between proxies at our four study sites suggests that forest productivity estimations based on a single proxy should be considered with great caution. The combined use of different forest growth metrics may help circumvent uncertainties in capturing responses of forest productivity to climate variability and improve estimations of carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems.     

CLIMTREG: Detecting temporal changes in climate–growth reactions – A computer program using intra-annual daily and yearly moving time intervals of variable width

Analysing climate–growth relationships is one of the key areas in dendrochronological research. One problem however remained unsolved – the discrepancy between the trees continuous growth over the vegetation period and the mean climate variables stretching over much longer periods. Here we present the possibility to calculate climate–growth correlations based on daily climate data using variable temporal width together with moving correlations to accommodate for short term as well as long term influences on tree growth. For the first time this offers the opportunity to acknowledge annual changes in the growing seasonal length and effects of short extreme events. Numerous outputs in data- and graphic-files allows a comparison of varying periods with significant correlations between climate and tree growth. Furthermore the use of climate scenarios is an optional tool for growth predictions.     

Analysis of vegetation distribution in Interior Alaska and sensitivity to climate change using a logistic regression approach

Aim To understand drivers of vegetation type distribution and sensitivity to climate change. Location Interior Alaska. Methods A logistic regression model was developed that predicts the potential equilibrium distribution of four major vegetation types: tundra, deciduous forest, black spruce forest and white spruce forest based on elevation, aspect, slope, drainage type, fire interval, average growing season temperature and total growing season precipitation. The model was run in three consecutive steps. The hierarchical logistic regression model was used to evaluate how scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation and fire interval may influence the distribution of the four major vegetation types found in this region. Results At the first step, tundra was distinguished from forest, which was mostly driven by elevation, precipitation and south to north aspect. At the second step, forest was separated into deciduous and spruce forest, a distinction that was primarily driven by fire interval and elevation. At the third step, the identification of black vs. white spruce was driven mainly by fire interval and elevation. The model was verified for Interior Alaska, the region used to develop the model, where it predicted vegetation distribution among the steps with an accuracy of 60–83%. When the model was independently validated for north‐west Canada, it predicted vegetation distribution among the steps with an accuracy of 53–85%. Black spruce remains the dominant vegetation type under all scenarios, potentially expanding most under warming coupled with increasing fire interval. White spruce is clearly limited by moisture once average growing season temperatures exceeded a critical limit (+2 °C). Deciduous forests expand their range the most when any two of the following scenarios are combined: decreasing fire interval, warming and increasing precipitation. Tundra can be replaced by forest under warming but expands under precipitation increase. Main conclusion The model analyses agree with current knowledge of the responses of vegetation types to climate change and provide further insight into drivers of vegetation change.