Child wellbeing and income inequality in rich societies: ecological cross sectional study

Objectives To examine associations between child wellbeing and material living standards (average income), the scale of differentiation in social status (income inequality), and social exclusion (children in relative poverty) in rich developed societies.Design Ecological, cross sectional studies.Setting Cross national comparisons of 23 rich countries; cross state comparisons within the United States.Population Children and young people.Main outcome measures The Unicef index of child wellbeing and its components for rich countries; eight comparable measures for the US states and District of Columbia (teenage births, juvenile homicides, infant mortality, low birth weight, educational performance, dropping out of high school, overweight, mental health problems).Results The overall index of child wellbeing was negatively correlated with income inequality (r=−0.64, P=0.001) and percentage of children in relative poverty (r=−0.67, P=0.001) but not with average income (r=0.15, P=0.50). Many more indicators of child wellbeing were associated with income inequality or children in relative poverty, or both, than with average incomes. Among the US states and District of Columbia all indicators were significantly worse in more unequal states. Only teenage birth rates and the proportion of children dropping out of high school were lower in richer states.Conclusions Improvements in child wellbeing in rich societies may depend more on reductions in inequality than on further economic growth.     

Inequality in income and mortality in the United States: analysis of mortality and potential pathways.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the relation between health outcomes and the equality with which income is distributed in the United States. DESIGN--The degree of income inequality, defined as the percentage of total household income received by the less well off 50% of households, and changes in income inequality were calculated for the 50 states in 1980 and 1990. These measures were then examined in relation to all cause mortality adjusted for age for each state, age specific deaths, changes in mortalities, and other health outcomes and potential pathways for 1980, 1990, and 1989-91. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Age adjusted mortality from all causes. RESULTS--There was a significant correlation (r = -0.62 [corrected], P < 0.001) between the percentage of total household income received by the less well off 50% in each state and all cause mortality, unaffected by adjustment for state median incomes. Income inequality was also significantly associated with age specific mortalities and rates of low birth weight, homicide, violent crime, work disability, expenditures on medical care and police protection, smoking, and sedentary activity. Rates of unemployment, imprisonment, recipients of income assistance and food stamps, lack of medical insurance, and educational outcomes were also worse as income inequality increased. Income inequality was also associated with mortality trends, and there was a suggestion of an impact of inequality trends on mortality trends. CONCLUSION--Variations between states in the inequality of the distribution of income are significantly associated with variations between states in a large number of health outcomes and social indicators and with mortality trends. These differences parallel relative investments in human and social capital. Economic policies that influence income and wealth inequality may have an important impact on the health of countries.     

National Patterns in Environmental Injustice and Inequality: Outdoor NO2 Air Pollution in the United States

We describe spatial patterns in environmental injustice and inequality for residential outdoor nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations in the contiguous United States. Our approach employs Census demographic data and a recently published high-resolution dataset of outdoor NO₂ concentrations. Nationally, population-weighted mean NO₂ concentrations are 4.6 ppb (38%, p<0.01) higher for nonwhites than for whites. The environmental health implications of that concentration disparity are compelling. For example, we estimate that reducing nonwhites’ NO₂ concentrations to levels experienced by whites would reduce Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) mortality by ∼7,000 deaths per year, which is equivalent to 16 million people increasing their physical activity level from inactive (0 hours/week of physical activity) to sufficiently active (>2.5 hours/week of physical activity). Inequality for NO₂ concentration is greater than inequality for income (Atkinson Index: 0.11 versus 0.08). Low-income nonwhite young children and elderly people are disproportionately exposed to residential outdoor NO₂. Our findings establish a national context for previous work that has documented air pollution environmental injustice and inequality within individual US metropolitan areas and regions. Results given here can aid policy-makers in identifying locations with high environmental injustice and inequality. For example, states with both high injustice and high inequality (top quintile) for outdoor residential NO₂ include New York, Michigan, and Wisconsin.     

Assessment of the Association of Health with the Liberalisation of Trade in Services under the World Trade Organisation

Background

The liberalisation of trade in services which began in 1995 under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has generated arguments for and against its potential health effects. Our goal was to explore the relationship between the liberalisation of services under the GATS and three health indicators - life expectancy (LE), under-5 mortality (U5M) and maternal mortality (MM) - since the WTO was established.

Methods and Findings

This was a cross-sectional ecological study that explored the association in 2010 and 1995 between liberalisation and health (LE, U5M and MM), and between liberalisation and progress in health in the period 1995–2010, considering variables related to economic and social policies such as per capita income (GDP pc), public expenditure on health (PEH), and income inequality (Gini index). The units of observation and analysis were WTO member countries with data available for 2010 (n = 116), 1995 (n = 114) and 1995–2010 (n = 114). We conducted bivariate and multivariate linear regression analyses adjusted for GDP pc, Gini and PEH. Increased global liberalisation in services under the WTO was associated with better health in 2010 (U5M: −0.358 p<0.001; MM: −0.338 p = 0.001; LE: 0.247 p = 0.008) and in 1995, after adjusting for economic and social policy variables. For the period 1995–2010, progress in health was associated with income equality, PEH and per capita income. No association was found with global liberalisation in services.

Conclusions

The favourable association in 2010 between health and liberalisation in services under the WTO seems to reflect a pre-WTO association observed in the 1995 data. However, this liberalisation did not appear as a factor associated with progress in health during 1995–2010. Income equality, health expenditure and per capita income were more powerful determinants of the health of populations.     

Body weight: implications for the prevention of coronary heart disease,stroke, and diabetes mellitus in a cohort study of middle aged men.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the body mass index associated with the lowest morbidity and mortality. DESIGN: Prospective study of a male cohort. SETTING: One general practice in each of 24 British towns. SUBJECTS: 7735 men aged 40-59 years at screening. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All cause death rate, heart attacks, and stroke (fatal and non-fatal) and development of diabetes, or any of these outcomes (combined end point) over an average follow up of 14.8 years. RESULTS: There were 1271 deaths from all causes, 974 heart attacks, 290 strokes, and 245 new cases of diabetes mellitus. All cause mortality was increased only in men with a body mass index (kg/m2) < 20 and in men with an index > or = 30. However, risk of cardiovascular death, heart attack, and diabetes increased progressively from an index of < 20 even after age, smoking, social class, alcohol consumption, and physical activity were adjusted for. For the combined end point the lowest risks were seen for an index of 20.0-23.9. In never smokers and former smokers, deaths from any cause rose progressively from an index of 20.0-21.9 and for the combined end point, from 20.0-23.9. Age adjusted levels of a wide range of cardiovascular risk factors rose or fell progressively from an index < 20. CONCLUSION: A healthy body mass index in these middle aged British men seems to be about 22.     

Conditional cash transfer program and child mortality: A cross-sectional analysis nested within the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort

BackgroundBrazil has made great progress in reducing child mortality over the past decades, and a parcel of this achievement has been credited to the Bolsa Família program (BFP). We examined the association between being a BFP beneficiary and child mortality (1–4 years of age), also examining how this association differs by maternal race/skin color, gestational age at birth (term versus preterm), municipality income level, and index of quality of BFP management.Methods and findingsThis is a cross-sectional analysis nested within the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort, a population-based cohort primarily built from Brazil’s Unified Registry for Social Programs (Cadastro Único). We analyzed data from 6,309,366 children under 5 years of age whose families enrolled between 2006 and 2015. Through deterministic linkage with the BFP payroll datasets, and similarity linkage with the Brazilian Mortality Information System, 4,858,253 children were identified as beneficiaries (77%) and 1,451,113 (23%) were not. Our analysis consisted of a combination of kernel matching and weighted logistic regressions. After kernel matching, 5,308,989 (84.1%) children were included in the final weighted logistic analysis, with 4,107,920 (77.4%) of those being beneficiaries and 1,201,069 (22.6%) not, with a total of 14,897 linked deaths. Overall, BFP participation was associated with a reduction in child mortality (weighted odds ratio [OR] = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.79 to 0.88; p < 0.001). This association was stronger for preterm children (weighted OR = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.68 to 0.90; p < 0.001), children of Black mothers (weighted OR = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.57 to 0.97; p < 0.001), children living in municipalities in the lowest income quintile (first quintile of municipal income: weighted OR = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.62 to 0.82; p < 0.001), and municipalities with better index of BFP management (5th quintile of the Decentralized Management Index: weighted OR = 0.76; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.88; p < 0.001). The main limitation of our methodology is that our propensity score approach does not account for possible unmeasured confounders. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis showed that loss of nameless death records before linkage may have resulted in overestimation of the associations between BFP participation and mortality, with loss of statistical significance in municipalities with greater losses of data and change in the direction of the association in municipalities with no losses.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed a significant association between BFP participation and child mortality in children aged 1–4 years and found that this association was stronger for children living in municipalities in the lowest quintile of wealth, in municipalities with better index of program management, and also in preterm children and children of Black mothers. These findings reinforce the evidence that programs like BFP, already proven effective in poverty reduction, have a great potential to improve child health and survival. Subgroup analysis revealed heterogeneous results, useful for policy improvement and better targeting of BFP.

In a cross-sectional analysis, Dandara Ramos, Nívea B. da Silva, and colleagues investigate the association between the Bolsa Família conditional cash transfer program, and mortality of children under 5 years of age.     

Host Factors and Biomarkers Associated with Poor Outcomes in Adults with Invasive Pneumococcal Disease

BackgroundInvasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) causes considerable morbidity and mortality. We aimed to identify host factors and biomarkers associated with poor outcomes in adult patients with IPD in Japan, which has a rapidly-aging population.MethodsIn a large-scale surveillance study of 506 Japanese adults with IPD, we investigated the role of host factors, disease severity, biomarkers based on clinical laboratory data, treatment regimens, and bacterial factors on 28-day mortality.ResultsOverall mortality was 24.1%, and the mortality rate increased from 10.0% in patients aged ˂50 years to 33.1% in patients aged ≥80 years. Disease severity also increased 28-day mortality, from 12.5% among patients with bacteraemia without sepsis to 35.0% in patients with severe sepsis and 56.9% with septic shock. The death rate within 48 hours after admission was high at 54.9%. Risk factors for mortality identified by multivariate analysis were as follows: white blood cell (WBC) count <4000 cells/μL (odds ratio [OR], 6.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7–12.8, p < .001); age ≥80 years (OR, 6.5; 95% CI, 2.0–21.6, p = .002); serum creatinine ≥2.0 mg/dL (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 2.5–8.1, p < .001); underlying liver disease (OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.6–7.8, p = .002); mechanical ventilation (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.7–5.6, p < .001); and lactate dehydrogenase ≥300 IU/L (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.4–4.0, p = .001). Pneumococcal serotype and drug resistance were not associated with poor outcomes.ConclusionsHost factors, disease severity, and biomarkers, especially WBC counts and serum creatinine, were more important determinants of mortality than bacterial factors.     

Exploring the Spatial Association between Social Deprivation and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality at the Neighborhood Level

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), the leading cause of death in the United States, is impacted by neighborhood-level factors including social deprivation. To measure the association between social deprivation and CVD mortality in Harris County, Texas, global (Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and local (Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR)) models were built. The models explored the spatial variation in the relationship at a census-tract level while controlling for age, income by race, and education. A significant and spatially varying association (p < .01) was found between social deprivation and CVD mortality, when controlling for all other factors in the model. The GWR model provided a better model fit over the analogous OLS model (R² = .65 vs. .57), reinforcing the importance of geography and neighborhood of residence in the relationship between social deprivation and CVD mortality. Findings from the GWR model can be used to identify neighborhoods at greatest risk for poor health outcomes and to inform the placement of community-based interventions.     

Sleep and Multisystem Biological Risk: A Population-Based Study

BackgroundShort sleep and poor sleep quality are associated with risk of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and mortality. This study examines the contribution of sleep duration and sleep quality on a multisystem biological risk index that is known to be associated with morbidity and mortality.MethodsAnalyses include a population-based sample from the Midlife Development in the United States survey recruited to the Biomarker substudy. A total of 1,023 participants aged 54.5 years (SD = 11.8), 56% female and 77.6% white, were included in the analyses. A multisystem biological risk index was derived from 22 biomarkers capturing cardiovascular, immune, lipid-metabolic, glucose-metabolic, sympathetic, parasympathetic, and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal systems. Self-reported average sleep duration was categorized as short (<5 hrs), below normal (5 to <6.5 hrs), normal (6.5 to <8.5 hrs), and long sleepers (8.5+ hrs). Sleep quality was determined using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index categorized as normal (≤5) and poor quality (>5) sleep.FindingsLinear mixed effect models adjusting for age, gender, race, education, income, BMI, and health status were performed. As compared to normal sleepers, multisystem biological risk in both short (B(SE) = .38(.15), p<.01) and long sleepers (B(SE) = .28(.11), p<.01) were elevated. Poor quality sleep alone was associated with elevated multisystem biological risk (B(SE) = .15(.06), p = .01), but was not significant after adjustment for health status. All short sleepers reported poor sleep quality. However in the long sleepers, only those who reported poor sleep quality exhibited elevated multisystem biological risk (B(SE) = .93(.3), p = .002).ConclusionsSelf-reported poor sleep quality with either short or long sleep duration is associated with dysregulation in physiological set points across regulatory systems, leading to elevated multisystem biological risk. Physicians should inquire about sleep health in the assessment of lifestyle factors related to disease risk, with evidence that healthy sleep is associated with lower multisystem biological risk.     

Importance of Simultaneous Evaluation of Multiple Risk Factors for Hemodialysis Patients’ Mortality and Development of a Novel Index: Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study

Background

For hemodialysis (HD) patients, many risk factors for death are associated with each other intricately. However, they are often considered separately in clinical settings. We evaluated the maintenance HD patients’ risk of death within one year from multiple risk factors simultaneously considering their interrelationships using a novel index (survival index, SI) for HD patients in the United States developed using data from the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS).

Methods

We analyzed data from 3899 and 3765 patients to develop and validate SI, respectively. To predict death within one year, candidate models were developed using logistic regression models. The final model was determined by comparing the accuracy among the models for the prediction of deaths.

Results

The model included age; body mass index; serum creatinine, albumin, total cholesterol and phosphorus levels; history of cardiovascular diseases; and arteriovenous fistula use. SI showed a higher accuracy in predicting death (c-statistic, 0.739) than geriatric nutritional risk index (0.647) and serum albumin level (0.637). The probability of death predicted on the basis of SI matched the observed number of deaths. Cox proportional hazard models for time-dependent SI showed that patients with low SI had a higher risk of death than patients with high SI [reference, Group 4 (26.1≤SI)]; Group 1 (SI<12.7), adjusted hazard ratio, 7.97 (95% CI, 5.02, 12.65); Group 2 (12.7≤SI<19.0), 3.18 (95% CI, 1.96, 5.16); Group 3 (19.0≤SI<26.1), 2.20 (95% CI, 1.33, 3.66).

Conclusion

Results of this study suggest that the simultaneous evaluation of multiple risk factors can more accurately assess patients’ prognosis and identify patients at an increased risk of death than single factors.     

Severity Assessment of Lower Respiratory Tract Infection in Malawi: Derivation of a Novel Index (SWAT-Bp) Which Outperforms CRB-65

Objective

To assess the validity of CRB-65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate >30 breaths/min, BP<90/60 mmHg, age >65 years) as a pneumonia severity index in a Malawian hospital population, and determine whether an alternative score has greater accuracy in this setting.

Design

Forty three variables were prospectively recorded during the first 48 hours of admission in all patients admitted to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Malawi, for management of lower respiratory tract infection over a two month period (N = 240). Calculation of sensitivity and specificity for CRB-65 in predicting mortality was followed by multivariate modeling to create a score with superior performance in this population.

Results

Median age 37, HIV prevalence 79.9%, overall mortality 18.3%. CRB-65 predicted mortality poorly, indicated by the area under the ROC curve of 0.649. Independent predictors of death were: Male sex, “S” (AOR 2.6); Wasting, “W” (AOR 6.6); non-ambulatory, “A” (AOR 2.5); Temp >38°C or <35°C, “T” (AOR 3.2); BP<100/60, “Bp” (AOR 3.7). Combining these factors to form a severity index (SWAT-Bp) predicted mortality with high sensitivity and specificity (AUC: 0.867). Mortality for scores 0–5 was 0%, 3.3%, 7.4%, 29.2%, 61.5% and 87.5% respectively. A score ≥3 was 84% sensitive and 77% specific for mortality prediction, with a negative predictive value of 95.8%.

Conclusion

CRB-65 performs poorly in this population. The SWAT-Bp score can accurately stratify patients; ≤2 indicates non-severe infection (mortality 4.4%) and ≥3 severe illness (mortality 45%).     

Mortality Due to Malignant and Non-Malignant Diseases in Korean Professional Emergency Responders

ObjectiveThis study was conducted to estimate the cause-specific mortality in male emergency responders (ER), compare with that of Korean men. Mortality was also compared between more experienced firefighters (i.e., firefighters employed ≥20 years and firefighters employed ≥10 to <20 years) and less experienced firefighters and non-firefighters (i.e., firefighters employed <10 years and non-firefighters) to investigate associations between mortality and exposure to occupational hazards.MethodsThe cohort was comprised of 33,442 males who were employed as ERs between 1980 and 2007 and not deceased as of 1991. Work history was merged with the death registry from the National Statistical Office of Korea to follow-up on mortality between 1992 and 2007. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) for ERs were calculated in reference to the Korean male population. Adjusted relative risks (ARRs) of mortalities for firefighters employed ≥20 years and ≥10 years to <20 years were calculated in reference to non-firefighters and firefighters employed < 10 years.ResultsOverall (SMR=0.43, 95%CI=0.39–0.47) and some kinds of cause-specific mortalities were significantly lower among ERs compared with the Korean male population. No significant increase in mortality was observed across the major ICD-10 classifications among ERs. Mortality due to exposure to smoke, fire, and flames (SMR=3.11, 95% CI=1.87–4.85), however, was significantly increased among ERs. All-cause mortality (ARR=1.46, 95% CI=1.13–1.89), overall cancer mortality (ARR=1.54, 95% CI=1.02–2.31) and mortality of external injury, poisoning and external causes (ARR=3.13, 95% CI=1.80–5.46) were significantly increased among firefighters employed ≥20 years compared to those of non-firefighters and firefighters employed < 10 years.ConclusionsAn increase in mortality due to all cancer and external injury, poisoning, and external causes in firefighters employed ≥20 years compared with non-firefighters and firefighters employed <10 years suggests occupational exposure.     

Social determinants of mortality from COVID-19: A simulation study using NHANES

BackgroundThe COVID-19 epidemic in the United States is widespread, with more than 200,000 deaths reported as of September 23, 2020. While ecological studies show higher burdens of COVID-19 mortality in areas with higher rates of poverty, little is known about social determinants of COVID-19 mortality at the individual level.Methods and findingsWe estimated the proportions of COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and comorbid conditions using their reported univariate proportions among COVID-19 deaths and correlations among these variables in the general population from the 2017–2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We used these proportions to randomly sample individuals from NHANES. We analyzed the distributions of COVID-19 deaths by race/ethnicity, income, education level, and veteran status. We analyzed the association of these characteristics with mortality by logistic regression. Summary demographics of deaths include mean age 71.6 years, 45.9% female, and 45.1% non-Hispanic white. We found that disproportionate deaths occurred among individuals with nonwhite race/ethnicity (54.8% of deaths, 95% CI 49.0%–59.6%, p < 0.001), individuals with income below the median (67.5%, 95% CI 63.4%–71.5%, p < 0.001), individuals with less than a high school level of education (25.6%, 95% CI 23.4% –27.9%, p < 0.001), and veterans (19.5%, 95% CI 15.8%–23.4%, p < 0.001). Except for veteran status, these characteristics are significantly associated with COVID-19 mortality in multiple logistic regression. Limitations include the lack of institutionalized people in the sample (e.g., nursing home residents and incarcerated persons), the need to use comorbidity data collected from outside the US, and the assumption of the same correlations among variables for the noninstitutionalized population and COVID-19 decedents.ConclusionsSubstantial inequalities in COVID-19 mortality are likely, with disproportionate burdens falling on those who are of racial/ethnic minorities, are poor, have less education, and are veterans. Healthcare systems must ensure adequate access to these groups. Public health measures should specifically reach these groups, and data on social determinants should be systematically collected from people with COVID-19.

In this simulation study, Benjamin Seligman and colleagues explore socio-demographic factors associated with COVID-19 deaths in the US.     

Use of ankle brachial pressure index to predict cardiovascular events and death: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a low ankle brachial pressure index is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and death, and whether the prediction of such events could be improved by including this index. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: 11 practices in Edinburgh, Scotland. SUBJECTS: 1592 men and women aged 55-74 years selected at random from the age-sex registers of 11 general practices and followed up for 5 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events and all cause mortality. RESULTS: At baseline 90 (5.7%) of subjects had an ankle brachial pressure index < or = 0.7, 288 (18.2%) had an index < or = 0.9, and 566 (35.6%) < or = 1.0. After five years subjects with an index < or = 0.9 at baseline had an increased risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction (relative risk 1.38, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 2.16), stroke (1.98, 1.05 to 3.77), cardiovascular death (1.85, 1.15 to 2.97), and all cause mortality (1.58, 1.14 to 2.18) after adjustment for age, sex, coronary disease, and diabetes at baseline. The ability to predict subsequent events was greatly increased by combining the index with other risk factors--for example, hypertensive smokers with normal cholesterol concentrations had a positive predictive value of 25.0%, increasing to 43.8% in subjects with a low index and decreasing to 15.6% in those with a normal index. CONCLUSION: The ankle brachial pressure index is a good predictor of subsequent cardiovascular events, and improves on predictions by conventional risk factors alone. It is simple and accurate and could be included in routine screening of cardiovascular status.     

Income Inequality,Socioeconomic Deprivation and Depressive Symptoms among Older Adults in Mexico

Objective

Depression is the second most common mental disorder in older adults (OA) worldwide. The ways in which depression is influenced by the social determinants of health – specifically, by socioeconomic deprivation, income inequality and social capital - have been analyzed with only partially conclusive results thus far. The objective of our study was to estimate the association of income inequality and socioeconomic deprivation at the locality, municipal and state levels with the prevalence of depressive symptoms among OA in Mexico.

Methods

Cross-sectional study based on a nationally representative sample of 8,874 OA aged 60 and over. We applied the brief seven-item version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) to determine the presence of depressive symptoms. Additionally, to select the principal context variables, we used the Deprivation Index of the National Population Council of Mexico at the locality, municipal and state levels, and the Gini Index at the municipal and state levels. Finally, we estimated the association of income inequality and socioeconomic deprivation with the presence of depressive symptoms using a multilevel logistic regression model.

Results

Socioeconomic deprivation at the locality (OR = 1.28; p<0.10) and municipal levels (OR = 1.16; p<0.01) correlated significantly with the presence of depressive symptoms, while income inequality did not.

Conclusions

The results of our study confirm that the social determinants of health are relevant to the mental health of OA. Further research is required, however, to identify which are the specific socioeconomic deprivation components at the locality and municipal levels that correlate with depression in this population group.     

Risk factors for development of incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy in patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus: prospective,observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate putative risk factors for the development of incipient diabetic nephropathy (persistent microalbuminuria) and overt diabetic nephropathy (persistent macroalbuminuria) in patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes. DESIGN: Prospective, observational study of a cohort of white, non-insulin dependent diabetic patients followed for a median period of 5.8 years. SETTING: Outpatient clinic in tertiary referral centre. SUBJECTS: 191 patients aged under 66 years with non-insulin dependent diabetes and normoalbuminuria (urinary albumin excretion rate < 30 mg/24 h) who attended the clinic during 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy. RESULTS: Fifteen patients were lost to follow up. Thirty six of the 176 remaining developed persistent microalbuminuria (30-299 mg/24 h in two out of three consecutive 24 hour urine collections) and five developed persistent macroalbuminuria (> or = mg/24 h in two out of three consecutive collections) during follow up. The five year cumulative incidence of incipient diabetic nephropathy was 23% (95% confidence interval 17% to 30%). Cox''s multiple stepwise regression analysis revealed the following risk factors for the development of incipient or overt diabetic nephropathy: increased baseline log urinary albumin excretion rate (relative risk 11.1 (3.4 to 35.9); P < 0.0001); male sex (2.6 (1.2 to 5.4); P < 0.02); presence of retinopathy (2.4 (1.3 to 4.7); P < 0.01); increased serum cholesterol concentration (1.4 (1.1 to 1.7); P < 0.01); haemoglobin A1c concentration (1.2 (1.0 to 1.4); P < 0.05); and age (1.07 (1.02 to 1.12); P < 0.01). Known duration of diabetes, body mass index, arterial blood pressure, serum creatinine concentration, pre-existing coronary heart disease, and history of smoking were not risk factors. CONCLUSION: Several potentially modifiable risk factors predict the development of incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy in normoalbuminuric patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes.     

A Prospective Cohort Study Examining the Associations of Dietary Calcium Intake with All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Older Chinese Community-Dwelling People

Background

Most epidemiological studies of calcium intake and mortality risk have been conducted in populations with moderate to high calcium intake, and limited studies have focused on populations with low habitual calcium intake (i.e., mean dietary calcium intake <700 mg/d).

Objective

This study investigated the association between dietary calcium intake and death from all causes and cardiovascular disease in Chinese population with low habitual calcium intake.

Design

Data from 3,139 Chinese men and women in a population-based prospective cohort study, aged >=65 years and free of heart diseases or stroke at baseline, were analyzed. Primary outcome measures, identified from the death registry, were death from all causes and cardiovascular disease. Dietary calcium intake assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire was categorized into sex-specific quartiles. Data on use of supplemental calcium (yes or no) including individual calcium supplements and other calcium containing supplement were collected. Cox regression models adjusted for demographic and lifestyle variables were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

During a median of 9.1 years of follow-up, 529 all-cause deaths (344 men, 185 women) and 114 (74 men, 40 women) deaths from cardiovascular disease were identified. An inverse trend between dietary calcium intake and mortality was observed. Compared with the lowest quartile (<458 mg/d for men, <417 mg/d for women), the highest quartile of dietary calcium intake (>762 mg/d for men, >688 mg/d for women) had a significantly reduced risk of all-cause mortality (multivariate HR=0.63, 95% CI=0.49-0.81, P _trend<0.001) but an insignificant decreased risk of cardiovascular mortality (multivariate HR=0.70, 95% CI=0.41-1.21, P _trend=0.228). Similar inverse association was observed when the analyses were stratified on calcium supplemental use.

Conclusions

Higher intake of dietary calcium was associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality and possibly cardiovascular mortality in Chinese older people with low habitual calcium intake.     

Red Blood Cell Transfusion and Mortality in Trauma Patients: Risk-Stratified Analysis of an Observational Study

Background

Haemorrhage is a common cause of death in trauma patients. Although transfusions are extensively used in the care of bleeding trauma patients, there is uncertainty about the balance of risks and benefits and how this balance depends on the baseline risk of death. Our objective was to evaluate the association of red blood cell (RBC) transfusion with mortality according to the predicted risk of death.

Methods and Findings

A secondary analysis of the CRASH-2 trial (which originally evaluated the effect of tranexamic acid on mortality in trauma patients) was conducted. The trial included 20,127 trauma patients with significant bleeding from 274 hospitals in 40 countries. We evaluated the association of RBC transfusion with mortality in four strata of predicted risk of death: <6%, 6%–20%, 21%–50%, and >50%. For this analysis the exposure considered was RBC transfusion, and the main outcome was death from all causes at 28 days. A total of 10,227 patients (50.8%) received at least one transfusion. We found strong evidence that the association of transfusion with all-cause mortality varied according to the predicted risk of death (p-value for interaction <0.0001). Transfusion was associated with an increase in all-cause mortality among patients with <6% and 6%–20% predicted risk of death (odds ratio [OR] 5.40, 95% CI 4.08–7.13, p<0.0001, and OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.96–2.73, p<0.0001, respectively), but with a decrease in all-cause mortality in patients with >50% predicted risk of death (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.47–0.74, p<0.0001). Transfusion was associated with an increase in fatal and non-fatal vascular events (OR 2.58, 95% CI 2.05–3.24, p<0.0001). The risk associated with RBC transfusion was significantly increased for all the predicted risk of death categories, but the relative increase was higher for those with the lowest (<6%) predicted risk of death (p-value for interaction <0.0001). As this was an observational study, the results could have been affected by different types of confounding. In addition, we could not consider haemoglobin in our analysis. In sensitivity analyses, excluding patients who died early; conducting propensity score analysis adjusting by use of platelets, fresh frozen plasma, and cryoprecipitate; and adjusting for country produced results that were similar.

Conclusions

The association of transfusion with all-cause mortality appears to vary according to the predicted risk of death. Transfusion may reduce mortality in patients at high risk of death but increase mortality in those at low risk. The effect of transfusion in low-risk patients should be further tested in a randomised trial.

Trial registration

www.ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01746953","term_id":"NCT01746953"}}NCT01746953 Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The Relationship between Poverty and Healthcare Seeking among Patients Hospitalized with Acute Febrile Illnesses in Chittagong,Bangladesh

Delays in seeking appropriate healthcare can increase the case fatality of acute febrile illnesses, and circuitous routes of care-seeking can have a catastrophic financial impact upon patients in low-income settings. To investigate the relationship between poverty and pre-hospital delays for patients with acute febrile illnesses, we recruited a cross-sectional, convenience sample of 527 acutely ill adults and children aged over 6 months, with a documented fever ≥38.0°C and symptoms of up to 14 days’ duration, presenting to a tertiary referral hospital in Chittagong, Bangladesh, over the course of one year from September 2011 to September 2012. Participants were classified according to the socioeconomic status of their households, defined by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative’s multidimensional poverty index (MPI). 51% of participants were classified as multidimensionally poor (MPI>0.33). Median time from onset of any symptoms to arrival at hospital was 22 hours longer for MPI poor adults compared to non-poor adults (123 vs. 101 hours) rising to a difference of 26 hours with adjustment in a multivariate regression model (95% confidence interval 7 to 46 hours; P = 0.009). There was no difference in delays for children from poor and non-poor households (97 vs. 119 hours; P = 0.394). Case fatality was 5.9% vs. 0.8% in poor and non-poor individuals respectively (P = 0.001)—5.1% vs. 0.0% for poor and non-poor adults (P = 0.010) and 6.4% vs. 1.8% for poor and non-poor children (P = 0.083). Deaths were attributed to central nervous system infection (11), malaria (3), urinary tract infection (2), gastrointestinal infection (1) and undifferentiated sepsis (1). Both poor and non-poor households relied predominantly upon the (often informal) private sector for medical advice before reaching the referral hospital, but MPI poor participants were less likely to have consulted a qualified doctor. Poor participants were more likely to attribute delays in decision-making and travel to a lack of money (P<0.001), and more likely to face catastrophic expenditure of more than 25% of monthly household income (P<0.001). We conclude that multidimensional poverty is associated with greater pre-hospital delays and expenditure in this setting. Closer links between health and development agendas could address these consequences of poverty and streamline access to adequate healthcare.