Modelling seasonal variations in the age and incidence of Kawasaki disease to explore possible infectious aetiologies

The average age of infection is expected to vary during seasonal epidemics in a way that is predictable from the epidemiological features, such as the duration of infectiousness and the nature of population mixing. However, it is not known whether such changes can be detected and verified using routinely collected data. We examined the correlation between the weekly number and average age of cases using data on pre-vaccination measles and rotavirus. We show that age-incidence patterns can be observed and predicted for these childhood infections. Incorporating additional information about important features of the transmission dynamics improves the correspondence between model predictions and empirical data. We then explored whether knowledge of the age-incidence pattern can shed light on the epidemiological features of diseases of unknown aetiology, such as Kawasaki disease (KD). Our results indicate KD is unlikely to be triggered by a single acute immunizing infection, but is consistent with an infection of longer duration, a non-immunizing infection or co-infection with an acute agent and one with longer duration. Age-incidence patterns can lend insight into important epidemiological features of infections, providing information on transmission-relevant population mixing for known infections and clues about the aetiology of complex paediatric diseases.     

Impact of Birth Seasonality on Dynamics of Acute Immunizing Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa

We analyze the impact of birth seasonality (seasonal oscillations in the birth rate) on the dynamics of acute, immunizing childhood infectious diseases. Previous research has explored the effect of human birth seasonality on infectious disease dynamics using parameters appropriate for the developed world. We build on this work by including in our analysis an extended range of baseline birth rates and amplitudes, which correspond to developing world settings. Additionally, our analysis accounts for seasonal forcing both in births and contact rates. We focus in particular on the dynamics of measles. In the absence of seasonal transmission rates or stochastic forcing, for typical measles epidemiological parameters, birth seasonality induces either annual or biennial epidemics. Changes in the magnitude of the birth fluctuations (birth amplitude) can induce significant changes in the size of the epidemic peaks, but have little impact on timing of disease epidemics within the year. In contrast, changes to the birth seasonality phase (location of the peak in birth amplitude within the year) significantly influence the timing of the epidemics. In the presence of seasonality in contact rates, at relatively low birth rates (20 per 1000), birth amplitude has little impact on the dynamics but does have an impact on the magnitude and timing of the epidemics. However, as the mean birth rate increases, both birth amplitude and phase play an important role in driving the dynamics of the epidemic. There are stronger effects at higher birth rates.     

Rural–urban gradient in seasonal forcing of measles transmission in Niger

Seasonally driven cycles of incidence have been consistently observed for a range of directly transmitted pathogens. Though frequently observed, the mechanism of seasonality for directly transmitted human pathogens is rarely well understood. Despite significant annual variation in magnitude, measles outbreaks in Niger consistently begin in the dry season and decline at the onset of the seasonal rains. We estimate the seasonal fluctuation in measles transmission rates for the 38 districts and urban centres of Niger, from 11 years of weekly incidence reports. We show that transmission rates are consistently in anti-phase to the rainfall patterns across the country. The strength of the seasonal forcing of transmission is not correlated with the latitudinal rainfall gradient, as would be expected if transmission rates were determined purely by environmental conditions. Rather, seasonal forcing is correlated with the population size, with larger seasonal fluctuation in more populous, urban areas. This pattern is consistent with seasonal variation in human density and contact rates due to agricultural cycles. The stronger seasonality in large cities drives deep inter-epidemic troughs and results in frequent local extinction of measles, which contrasts starkly to the conventional observation that large cities, by virtue of their size, act as reservoirs of measles.     

Exploring the relationship between incidence and the average age of infection during seasonal epidemics

The inverse relationship between the incidence and the average age of first infection for immunizing agents has become a basic tenet in the theory underlying the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. However, this relationship assumes that the infection has reached an endemic equilibrium. In reality, most infectious diseases exhibit seasonal and/or long-term oscillations in incidence. We use a seasonally forced age-structured SIR model to explore the relationship between the number of cases and the average age of first infection over a single epidemic cycle. Contrary to the relationship for the equilibrium dynamics, we find that the average age of first infection is greatest at or near the peak of the epidemic when mixing is homogeneous. We explore the sensitivity of our findings to assumptions about the natural history of infection, population mixing behavior, the mechanism of seasonality, and of the timing of case reporting in relation to the infectious period. We conclude that seasonal variation in the average age of first infection tends to be greatest for acute infections, and the relationship between the number of cases and the average age of first infection can vary depending on the nature of population mixing and the natural history of infection.     

An in-host model of acute infection: measles as a case study

The epidemiology of acute infections is strongly influenced by the immune status of individuals. In-host models can provide quantitative predictions of immune status and can thus offer valuable insights into the factors that influence transmission between individuals and the effectiveness of vaccination protocols with respect to individual immunity. Here we develop an in-host model of measles infection. The model explicitly considers the effects of immune system memory and CD8 T-cells, which are key to measles clearance. The model is used to determine the effects of waning immunity through vaccination and infection, the effects of booster exposures or vaccines on the level of immunity, and the immune system characteristics that result in measles transmission (R(0)>1) even if an individual has no apparent clinical symptoms. We find that the level of immune system CD8 T-cells at the time of exposure to measles determines whether an individual will experience a measles infection or simply a boost in immunity. We also find that the infected cell dynamics are a good indicator of measles transmission and the degree of symptoms that will be experienced. Our results indicate that the degree of immunity in adults is independent of the source of exposure in early childhood, be it vaccine or natural infection.     

Arabidopsis thaliana as a model for the study of plant–virus co-evolution

Understanding plant–virus coevolution requires wild systems in which there is no human manipulation of either host or virus. To develop such a system, we analysed virus infection in six wild populations of Arabidopsis thaliana in Central Spain. The incidence of five virus species with different life-styles was monitored during four years, and this was analysed in relation to the demography of the host populations. Total virus incidence reached 70 per cent, which suggests a role of virus infection in the population structure and dynamics of the host, under the assumption of a host fitness cost caused by the infection. Maximum incidence occurred at early growth stages, and co-infection with different viruses was frequent, two factors often resulting in increased virulence. Experimental infections under controlled conditions with two isolates of the most prevalent viruses, cauliflower mosaic virus and cucumber mosaic virus, showed that there is genetic variation for virus accumulation, although this depended on the interaction between host and virus genotypes. Comparison of Q_ST-based genetic differentiations between both host populations with F_ST genetic differentiation based on putatively neutral markers suggests different selection dynamics for resistance against different virus species or genotypes. Together, these results are compatible with a hypothesis of plant–virus coevolution.     

Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics

More than a century of ecological studies have demonstrated the importance of demography in shaping spatial and temporal variation in population dynamics. Surprisingly, the impact of seasonal recruitment on infectious disease systems has received much less attention. Here, we present data encompassing 78 years of monthly natality in the USA, and reveal pronounced seasonality in birth rates, with geographical and temporal variation in both the peak birth timing and amplitude. The timing of annual birth pulses followed a latitudinal gradient, with northern states exhibiting spring/summer peaks and southern states exhibiting autumn peaks, a pattern we also observed throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, the amplitude of United States birth seasonality was more than twofold greater in southern states versus those in the north. Next, we examined the dynamical impact of birth seasonality on childhood disease incidence, using a mechanistic model of measles. Birth seasonality was found to have the potential to alter the magnitude and periodicity of epidemics, with the effect dependent on both birth peak timing and amplitude. In a simulation study, we fitted an susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model to simulated data, and demonstrated that ignoring birth seasonality can bias the estimation of critical epidemiological parameters. Finally, we carried out statistical inference using historical measles incidence data from New York City. Our analyses did not identify the predicted systematic biases in parameter estimates. This may be owing to the well-known frequency-locking between measles epidemics and seasonal transmission rates, or may arise from substantial uncertainty in multiple model parameters and estimation stochasticity.     

Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for epidemiological coupling and dynamics

Infectious diseases provide a particularly clear illustration of the spatiotemporal underpinnings of consumer-resource dynamics. The paradigm is provided by extremely contagious, acute, immunizing childhood infections. Partially synchronized, unstable oscillations are punctuated by local extinctions. This, in turn, can result in spatial differentiation in the timing of epidemics and, depending on the nature of spatial contagion, may result in traveling waves. Measles epidemics are one of a few systems documented well enough to reveal all of these properties and how they are affected by spatiotemporal variations in population structure and demography. On the basis of a gravity coupling model and a time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model for local dynamics, we propose a metapopulation model for regional measles dynamics. The model can capture all the major spatiotemporal properties in prevaccination epidemics of measles in England and Wales.     

School’s Out: Seasonal Variation in the Movement Patterns of School Children

School children are core groups in the transmission of many common infectious diseases, and are likely to play a key role in the spatial dispersal of disease across multiple scales. However, there is currently little detailed information about the spatial movements of this epidemiologically important age group. To address this knowledge gap, we collaborated with eight secondary schools to conduct a survey of movement patterns of school pupils in primary and secondary schools in the United Kingdom. We found evidence of a significant change in behaviour between term time and holidays, with term time weekdays characterised by predominately local movements, and holidays seeing much broader variation in travel patterns. Studies that use mathematical models to examine epidemic transmission and control often use adult commuting data as a proxy for population movements. We show that while these data share some features with the movement patterns reported by school children, there are some crucial differences between the movements of children and adult commuters during both term-time and holidays.     

Oscillations and chaos in epidemics: A nonlinear dynamic study of six childhood diseases in Copenhagen, Denmark

Using traditional spectral analysis and recently developed non-linear methods, we analyze the incidence of six childhood diseases in Copenhagen, Denmark. In three cases, measles, mumps, rubella, the dynamics suggest low dimensional chaos. Outbreaks of chicken pox, on the other hand, conform to an annual cycle with noise superimposed. The remaining diseases, pertussis and scarlet fever, remain problematic. The real epidemics are compared with the output of a Monte Carlo analog of the SEIR model for childhood infections. For measles, mumps, rubella, and chicken pox, we find substantial agreement between the model simulations and the data.     

Think globally,act locally: the role of local demographics and vaccination coverage in the dynamic response of measles infection to control

The global reduction of the burden of morbidity and mortality owing to measles has been a major triumph of public health. However, the continued persistence of measles infection probably not only reflects local variation in progress towards vaccination target goals, but may also reflect local variation in dynamic processes of transmission, susceptible replenishment through births and stochastic local extinction. Dynamic models predict that vaccination should increase the mean age of infection and increase inter-annual variability in incidence. Through a comparative approach, we assess national-level patterns in the mean age of infection and measles persistence. We find that while the classic predictions do hold in general, the impact of vaccination on the age distribution of cases and stochastic fadeout are mediated by local birth rate. Thus, broad-scale vaccine coverage goals are unlikely to have the same impact on the interruption of measles transmission in all demographic settings. Indeed, these results suggest that the achievement of further measles reduction or elimination goals is likely to require programmatic and vaccine coverage goals that are tailored to local demographic conditions.     

Pertussis in England and Wales: an investigation of transmission dynamics and control by mass vaccination

The epidemiology of pertussis and its prospects for control by mass vaccination in England and Wales are investigated by analyses of longitudinal records on incidence and vaccine uptake, and horizontal data on age-stratified case reports. Mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of the infection that incorporate loss of natural and vaccine-induced immunity plus variable vaccine efficacy are developed, and their predictions compared with observed trends. Analyses of case reports reveal that the individual force of infection is age dependent, with peak transmission in the 5- to 10-year-old age class. A model incorporating this age dependency, along with partial vaccine efficacy and loss of vaccine-induced immunity, generates predicted patterns that best mirror observed trends since mass vaccination was inaugurated in 1957 in England and Wales. Model projections accurately mirror the failure of mass vaccination to increase the inter-epidemic period of the infection (three years) over that pertaining before control. The analysis suggests that this is due to the impact of partial vaccine efficacy. Projected trends do not accurately reflect the low levels of pertussis incidence reported between epidemics in the periods of high vaccine uptake. This is thought to arise from a combination of factors, including loss of natural and vaccine induced immunity, biases in case reporting (where reporting efficiency is positively associated with the incidence of pertussis), and seasonal variations in transmission. Model predictions suggest that the vaccination of 88% of each birth cohort before the age of 1 year will eliminate bacterial transmission, provided the vaccine confers lifelong protection against infection. If vaccine-induced immunity is significantly less than lifelong (or if vaccination fails to protect all its recipients) repeated cohort immunization is predicted to be necessary to eliminate transmission. Future research needs are discussed, and emphasis is placed on the need for more refined data on vaccine efficacy, the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and the incidence of clinical pertussis and subclinical infections (perhaps by the development of reliable serological tests). Future mathematical models will need especially to incorporate seasonality in transmission.     

Aetiology of Acute Respiratory Tract Infections in Hospitalised Children in Cyprus

In order to improve clinical management and prevention of viral infections in hospitalised children improved etiological insight is needed. The aim of the present study was to assess the spectrum of respiratory viral pathogens in children admitted to hospital with acute respiratory tract infections in Cyprus. For this purpose nasopharyngeal swab samples from 424 children less than 12 years of age with acute respiratory tract infections were collected over three epidemic seasons and were analysed for the presence of the most common 15 respiratory viruses. A viral pathogen was identified in 86% of the samples, with multiple infections being observed in almost 20% of the samples. The most frequently detected viruses were RSV (30.4%) and Rhinovirus (27.4%). RSV exhibited a clear seasonality with marked peaks in January/February, while rhinovirus infections did not exhibit a pronounced seasonality being detected almost throughout the year. While RSV and PIV3 incidence decreased significantly with age, the opposite was observed for influenza A and B as well as adenovirus infections. The data presented expand our understanding of the epidemiology of viral respiratory tract infections in Cypriot children and will be helpful to the clinicians and researchers interested in the treatment and control of viral respiratory tract infections.     

Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis in papua new guinean children: the cost of continuing inadequate measles vaccine coverage

Introduction

Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) is a late, rare and usually fatal complication of measles infection. Although a very high incidence of SSPE in Papua New Guinea (PNG) was first recognized 20 years ago, estimated measles vaccine coverage has remained at ≤70% since and a large measles epidemic occurred in 2002. We report a series of 22 SSPE cases presenting between November 2007 and July 2009 in Madang Province, PNG, including localized clusters with the highest ever reported annual incidence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

As part of a prospective observational study of severe childhood illness at Modilon Hospital, the provincial referral center, children presenting with evidence of meningo-encephalitis were assessed in detail including lumbar puncture in most cases. A diagnosis of SSPE was based on clinical features and presence of measles-specific IgG in cerebrospinal fluid and/or plasma. The estimated annual SSPE incidence in Madang province was 54/million population aged <20 years, but four sub-districts had an incidence >100/million/year. The distribution of year of birth of the 22 children with SSPE closely matched the reported annual measles incidence in PNG, including a peak in 2002.

Conclusions/Significance

SSPE follows measles infections in very young PNG children. Because PNG children have known low seroconversion rates to the first measles vaccine given at 6 months of age, efforts such as supplementary measles immunisation programs should continue in order to reduce the pool of non-immune people surrounding the youngest and most vulnerable members of PNG communities.     

104例麻疹病例的流行病学分析

目的分析平顶山市麻疹病例发生的原因,为加速控制和消除麻疹提供科学依据。方法对平顶山市2013年法定传染病疫情报告资料和麻疹监测资料进行流行病学分析。结果平顶山市2013年共报告麻疹104例,年发病率为2.11/10万,2~4月为发病高峰;男女发病率差异有统计学意义,发病以3岁以下儿童居多,占发病总数的86.54%;其中8月龄~1岁者最多,占39.42%;14岁以上者9例,占8.65%,其他年龄组发病率随年龄增大而逐步下降。从病例就诊、住院时间上推断其感染方式可能以医院内感染为主。结论常规免疫接种率和首针及时接种率不高是麻疹高发的主要原因,医院内交叉感染是麻疹的传播因素,提高易感人群麻疹疫苗接种率,控制院内感染是控制、消除麻疹的有效手段。     

The total burden of rare,non-synonymous exome genetic variants is not associated with childhood or late-life cognitive ability

Human cognitive ability shows consistent, positive associations with fitness components across the life-course. Underlying genetic variation should therefore be depleted by selection, which is not observed. Genetic variation in general cognitive ability (intelligence) could be maintained by a mutation–selection balance, with rare variants contributing to its genetic architecture. This study examines the association between the total number of rare stop-gain/loss, splice and missense exonic variants and cognitive ability in childhood and old age in the same individuals. Exome array data were obtained in the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 and 1936 (combined N = 1596). General cognitive ability was assessed at age 11 years and in late life (79 and 70 years, respectively) and was modelled against the total number of stop-gain/loss, splice, and missense exonic variants, with minor allele frequency less than or equal to 0.01, using linear regression adjusted for age and sex. In both cohorts and in both the childhood and late-life models, there were no significant associations between rare variant burden in the exome and cognitive ability that survived correction for multiple testing. Contrary to our a priori hypothesis, we observed no evidence for an association between the total number of rare exonic variants and either childhood cognitive ability or late-life cognitive ability.     

Sickness behaviour associated with non-lethal infections in wild primates

Non-lethal parasite infections are common in wildlife, but there is little information on their clinical consequences. Here, we pair infection data from a ubiquitous soil-transmitted helminth, the whipworm (genus Trichuris), with activity data from a habituated group of wild red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus tephrosceles) in Kibale National Park, Uganda. We use mixed-effect models to examine the relationship between non-lethal parasitism and red colobus behaviour. Our results indicate that red colobus increased resting and decreased more energetically costly behaviours when shedding whipworm eggs in faeces. Temporal patterns of behaviour also changed, with individuals switching behaviour less frequently when whipworm-positive. Feeding frequency did not differ, but red colobus consumption of bark and two plant species from the genus Albizia, which are used locally in traditional medicines, significantly increased when animals were shedding whipworm eggs. These results suggest self-medicative plant use, although additional work is needed to verify this conclusion. Our results indicate sickness behaviours, which are considered an adaptive response by hosts during infection. Induction of sickness behaviour in turn suggests that these primates are clinically sensitive to non-lethal parasite infections.     

Decline in measles mortality: nutrition,age at infection,or exposure?

The mortality from measles was studied in an urban area of Guinea-Bissau one year before and five years after the introduction of a vaccination programme. The years after the introduction of immunisation saw a decline in mortality among unvaccinated children with measles. This decline occurred despite a lower age at infection and an increasing prevalence of malnourished children. State of nutrition (weight for age) did not affect the outcome of measles infection. The incidence of isolated cases, however, increased in the period after the introduction of measles vaccination. As mortality was lower among these cases, diminished clustering explained some of the reduction in mortality. Comparison between the urban district and a rural area inhabited by the same ethnic group showed a lower age at infection, less clustering of cases, and lower case fatality ratios in the urban area.Endemic transmission of measles in urban districts leads to less clustering of cases, which may help explain the usually lower case fatality ratios in these areas. As measles vaccination increases herd immunity and diminishes clustering of cases, it may reduce mortality even among unvaccinated children who contract the disease.