太行山华北豹袭击家畜的时空特点与管理建议: 以山西省和顺县为例

人兽冲突是全球野生动物保护面临的共同挑战。袭击家畜是大型食肉动物引发人兽冲突的主要原因之一, 如果管理不当还会导致针对大型食肉动物的报复性猎杀等严重威胁。冲突的缓解需要深入了解冲突发生的规律与原因, 评估当地社区与居民的态度与看法, 以采取因地制宜的管理措施。太行山是华北豹(Panthera pardus japonensis)的核心分布区, 华北豹袭击家牛的问题是该区域野生华北豹保护中面临的一大挑战。本研究以山西省和顺县为研究区域, 在多方联合发起的“和顺县华北豹袭击家牛肇事补偿项目”实施过程中, 系统收集了2015-2019年期间华北豹袭击家畜事件的记录, 结合同期的红外相机监测数据, 探究了袭击事件的时空分布格局, 并从生境和猎物的角度分析了背后的原因。本文还评估了豹肇事造成的经济损失, 以及受损农户对华北豹的态度和对补偿的满意度。2015-2019年, 项目区域内共记录到华北豹袭击家牛事件195起, 向116户受损农户提供补偿资金共27.05万元。分析结果显示, 华北豹袭击家牛事件在夏季最多, 时间上与家牛上山散放的季节重叠; 袭击风险随狍(Capreolus pygargus)相对多度的上升而下降, 随家牛相对多度和距村庄距离的增加而上升, 但保护区内外和华北豹相对多度对袭击风险的影响不显著。对107名受损农户的访谈结果显示, 华北豹袭击家牛事件虽然对当地畜牧业所造成的整体损失较小, 但对受损农户而言其家庭收入损失严重, 因此导致受损农户对华北豹持负面态度, 且认为现有的补偿金额偏低。基于本研究的结果, 我们提出如下管理建议以期缓解未来该地区华北豹带来的人兽冲突: (1)加强放牧管理、改进管理方式, 特别是限制牛群离开村庄的距离, 以及在家牛散放期间将牛群每晚赶回牛圈以降低家畜被袭击的风险; (2)开展禁牧试点, 严格划分允许放牧与禁止放牧的区域; (3)继续开展华北豹袭击家牛的定损与补偿工作, 降低当地农户的经济损失, 同时开展社区走访、自然教育, 提升当地居民对华北豹的容忍度; (4)加强野生动物种群的监测与保护, 促进人与野生动物的和谐共存。     

Prescribed take levels of downy and hairy woodpeckers in the eastern United States

Hairy (Dryobates villosus) and downy (Dryobates pubescens) woodpeckers occur in high densities in residential areas of the eastern United States. In many areas of their range, they cause damage to wooden structures through foraging, excavation of nesting cavities, and drumming behaviors, causing requests for allowable take permits. Both species hold year-round territories, which could make them vulnerable to local extirpation with excess take. To meet the requirements of the Migratory Bird Treaty act, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) requested scientifically informed evaluation of take to minimize population effects as part of its approach to reduce human–wildlife conflict. We used a prescribed take approach, which uses data from population, demographic, and management parameter estimates to determine the allowable take from Louisiana to Minnesota and all states east. Furthermore, we used 2 different methods of estimating growth rates to control for demographic uncertainties. The resulting estimates provide take at the state and USFWS regional scales to improve stakeholder choices when setting allowable take. Current authorized take (2016–2018) is below the take that could be sustained by current populations, and current rates of take are not likely to cause population-level effects. These results were largely consistent across methodologies for calculating the rate of growth for both species. Take still needs to be managed to prevent local extirpation of these resident species. Allowable take estimates should be periodically updated to reflect changing management and population needs for both species.     

Empirical geographic modeling of switchgrass yields in the United States

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a perennial grass native to the United States that has been studied as a sustainable source of biomass fuel. Although many field‐scale studies have examined the potential of this grass as a bioenergy crop, these studies have not been integrated. In this study, we present an empirical model for switchgrass yield and use this model to predict yield for the conterminous United States. We added environmental covariates to assembled yield data from field trials based on geographic location. We developed empirical models based on these data. The resulting empirical models, which account for spatial autocorrelation in the field data, provide the ability to estimate yield from factors associated with climate, soils, and management for both lowland and upland varieties of switchgrass. Yields of both ecotypes showed quadratic responses to temperature, increased with precipitation and minimum winter temperature, and decreased with stand age. Only the upland ecotype showed a positive response to our index of soil wetness and only the lowland ecotype showed a positive response to fertilizer. We view this empirical modeling effort, not as an alternative to mechanistic plant‐growth modeling, but rather as a first step in the process of functional validation that will compare patterns produced by the models with those found in data. For the upland variety, the correlation between measured yields and yields predicted by empirical models was 0.62 for the training subset and 0.58 for the test subset. For the lowland variety, the correlation was 0.46 for the training subset and 0.19 for the test subset. Because considerable variation in yield remains unexplained, it will be important in the future to characterize spatial and local sources of uncertainty associated with empirical yield estimates.     

The poultry thief: Subsistence farmers' perceptions of depredation outside the Serengeti National Park,Tanzania

Improving the understanding of human–carnivore conflicts is fundamental for the effective management of interventions. However, earlier research has largely focused on conflicts caused by top carnivores, and there is a general lack of knowledge about the drivers behind conflicts caused by smaller carnivores. Here, we investigated the characteristics and spatial patterns of perceived predators that caused losses of poultry. We used a structured interview of 481 households across seven villages outside Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Most households kept poultry and livestock, and 48.4% of all households perceived to have lost poultry to predators, but it was unrelated to perceived livestock depredation. On average, predators killed almost one‐third of the poultry kept by each household, which is equivalent to an average annual economic loss of US $14.5 ± 18.6, or 10.4% of the cash income. Economic dependency did not influence the likelihood of perceiving depredation. The most parsimonious linear mixed‐effects model showed that the probability of claiming losses to predators increased with increasing flock sizes and distance to the nearest protected area. We discuss our findings in relation to the current interest in rural poultry production shown by conservation programmes in Africa.     

Variation of cyanogenesis in some plant species of the midwestern United States

The frequency of cyanogenesis of 48 species of vascular plants was examined by testing 30 individuals from five populations of each species for release of cyanide. The rate at which cyanide was released and the amount of cyanide released varied widely among individuals of a population and among populations of a species. For many taxa, the frequency of cyanogenesis was highly variable among populations. Of the species examined, 20 have not been reported previously as being cyanogenic.     

Nutrient uptake in streams draining agricultural catchments of the midwestern United States

1. Agriculture is a major contributor of non‐point source pollution to surface waters in the midwestern United States, resulting in eutrophication of freshwater aquatic ecosystems and development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Agriculturally influenced streams are diverse in morphology and have variable nutrient concentrations. Understanding how nutrients are transformed and retained within agricultural streams may aid in mitigating increased nutrient export to downstream ecosystems. 2. We studied six agriculturally influenced streams in Indiana and Michigan to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the factors controlling nutrient retention and export in agricultural streams using nutrient addition and isotopic tracer studies. 3. Metrics of nutrient uptake indicated that nitrate uptake was saturated in these streams whereas ammonium and phosphorus uptake increased with higher concentrations. Phosphorus uptake was likely approaching saturation as evidenced by decreasing uptake velocities with concentration; ammonium uptake velocity also declined with concentration, though not significantly. 4. Higher whole‐stream uptake rates of phosphorus and ammonium were associated with the observed presence of stream autotrophs (e.g. algae and macrophytes). However, there was no significant relationship between measures of nutrient uptake and stream metabolism. Water‐column nutrient concentrations were positively correlated with gross primary production but not community respiration. 5. Overall, nutrient uptake and metabolism were affected by nutrient concentrations in these agriculturally influenced streams. Biological uptake of ammonium and phosphorus was not saturated, although nitrate uptake did appear to be saturated in these ecosystems. Biological activity in agriculturally influenced streams is higher relative to more pristine streams and this increased biological activity likely influences nutrient retention and transport to downstream ecosystems.     

Predicting the fine‐scale factors that correlate with multiple carnivore depredation of livestock in their enclosures

We used multiple methods to examine livestock depredation by African lions (Panthera leo), spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta), leopards (Panthera pardus) and black‐backed jackals (Canis mesomelas) in livestock enclosures across the Maasai steppe of Northern Tanzania. In this landscape, pastoralists keep cattle, goats, sheep and donkeys. All are vulnerable to depredation by carnivores. Various factors, such as boma characteristics, landscape attributes and attacks by multiple carnivores, were analysed to understand the best predictors of livestock loss at a boma. We found that livestock depredation was significantly correlated with the number of carnivore species that attacked the boma, the number of boma fences and proximity to protected areas, rivers and roads. Bomas with one fence experienced more loss than those with two walls of fencing. We also found that livestock depredation increased farther from protected areas (β = 0.50, SE = 0.10) and rivers (β = 0.39, SE = 0.10) and closer to roads (β = ?0.28, SE = 0.11). These results highlight the complex interaction of fine‐scale factors that influence carnivore depredation of livestock at any given boma. We recommend that mitigation address the range of factors, including the structural integrity of a boma, landscape attributes and multiple carnivore raids.     

Landscape‐scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human–carnivore conflict

Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human–carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator–prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution for predicting where carnivores access livestock, we examined the spatial attributes associated with livestock killed by tigers in Kanha Tiger Reserve, India, using risk models generated at 20, 100, and 200‐m spatial grains. We analyzed land‐use, human presence, and vegetation structure variables at 138 kill sites and 439 random sites to identify key landscape attributes where livestock were vulnerable to tigers. Land‐use and human presence variables contributed strongly to predation risk models, with most variables showing high relative importance (≥0.85) at all spatial grains. The risk of a tiger killing livestock increased near dense forests and near the boundary of the park core zone where human presence is restricted. Risk was nonlinearly related to human infrastructure and open vegetation, with the greatest risk occurring 1.2 km from roads, 1.1 km from villages, and 8.0 km from scrubland. Kill sites were characterized by denser, patchier, and more complex vegetation with lower visibility than random sites. Risk maps revealed high‐risk hot spots inside of the core zone boundary and in several patches in the human‐dominated buffer zone. Validation against known kills revealed predictive accuracy for only the 20 m model, the resolution best representing the kill stage of hunting for large carnivores that ambush prey, like the tiger. Results demonstrate that risk models developed at fine spatial grains can offer accurate guidance on landscape attributes livestock should avoid to minimize human–carnivore conflict.     

Assessing the welfare impact of foot disorders in dairy cattle by a modeling approach

Foot disorders are the main cause of dairy cow lameness and are considered to have a major impact on the welfare of dairy cattle. This study adopts a modeling approach, using a dynamic stochastic model, to provide more insight into the welfare impact of different types of foot disorders, both clinical and subclinical. The impact of specific foot disorders on welfare was assessed by simulating the incidence and duration of foot disorders and the pain associated with them. Pain assessment was based on locomotion scores, with underlying knowledge obtained from scientific literature and experts. The results demonstrated the seriousness of the welfare impact of foot disorders. The negative welfare impact was measured on a scale from 0 to 60, where the maximum outcome represents a cow having very severe pain during the whole year. On average, each cow achieves a welfare impact score of 12, which is 20% of the maximum welfare impact score. This welfare score equals having severe pain for a period of 3 months, indicating a serious impact on welfare. On average, digital dermatitis impacts most on welfare, which is caused by a high incidence of the painful clinical stage, followed by sole hemorrhages (SoH) and interdigital dermatitis and heel horn erosion (IDHE). The combination of a high incidence and long duration of SoH and IDHE causes this relatively high welfare impact of foot disorders that occur mostly subclinically. On average, over 1 year, 46% of the welfare impact due to foot disorders is caused by clinical foot disorders. The fact that subclinical foot disorders contribute more or less equally to the effects on welfare as clinical ones, indicates that farmers may readily underestimate the welfare impact by a factor two. Modeling welfare impact at cow level, individual cases of foot disorders, stresses the importance of pain intensity, indicating the importance of clinical foot disorders. This study demonstrated the serious welfare impact of foot disorders in dairy cattle and pointed out the considerable impact of subclinical foot disorders. Furthermore, the approach of welfare assessment, for example herd v. cow level, influenced the ranking of foot disorders for their impact on animal welfare. Potentially, this leads to different prioritization of specific solution strategies for dairy farmers, for example, focusing on cow comfort, hygiene or preventive medical treatments, foot trimming and/or health monitoring. The findings in this study support in raising awareness about this welfare issue.     

The risk of Listeria monocytogenes infection in beef cattle operations

Aim:  To determine the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes and associated risk factors among beef operations (cow-calf and feedlot) in central and southern California.
Methods and Results:  A repeated cross-sectional study where faecal and environmental samples were collected from 50 operations three times a year at different seasons was carried out. Samples were tested for presence of L. monocytogenes using a combination of enrichment and polymerase chain reaction tests. Data on putative risk factors were also collected. Listeria monocytogenes was detected in faecal samples from cows, calves and other animals on calf-cow operations at proportions of 3·1%, 3·75% and 2·5%, respectively. The organism was detected in 5·3% of cut-grass, 5·3% of soil, 14·3% of irrigation ditches, 3·1% of the ponds and 6·5% of water troughs samples. Listeria monocytogenes was less common in faecal (0·3%) and soil (0·75%) samples collected from feedlots.
Conclusions:  Listeria monocytogenes was present at a higher proportion among cow-calf operations than feedlots. There was no significant seasonal variation in the occurrence of this pathogen within the two types of operations.
Significance and Impact of the Study:  If risk mitigation strategies were implemented to reduce the public health risk these should focus in cow-calf operations.     

The incidence of Campylobacter spp. on processed turkey from processing plants in the midwestern United States

AIM: The primary aim of this study was to determine the incidence of Campylobacter spp. on turkey, presented for processing at participating production plants located in the midwest region of the United States. METHODS AND RESULTS: The two participating plants were visited on a monthly basis for a period of 1 year. Sampling of carcasses was carried out using a surface swab technique. Swabs were obtained from carcasses at two points on the production line - prechill and postchill. In addition, samples of chill water were also obtained for examination. Isolation and detection of Campylobacter was carried out using enrichment in Preston broth with recovery of the organism on blood free Campylobacter selective agar (CCDA). Isolates recovered were screened and identified using the API Campy identification system. The study found that 34.9% of all samples tested were positive for Campylobacter spp. The overall, contamination rates observed for both plants were relatively similar (39.2% for plant A and 30.6% for plant B). Differences were observed in the incidence of Campylobacter spp. on prechill vs postchill carcasses (i.e. 40.8% prechill vs 37.6% postchill for plant A and 41.8% prechill vs 19.8% postchill for plant B). Campylobacter species most often isolated included Camp. jejuni and Camp. coli. Other species recovered were Camp. fetus fetus, Camp. upsaliensis and Camp. lari. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of Campylobacter spp. on processed poultry was relatively common. Factors such as the processing plant examined, season and the farms presenting birds for processing influenced the incidence of the pathogen. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Differences were observed in the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. isolated from the two plants examined. The study suggests a seasonal prevalence of Campylobacter in the cooler months with processing conditions also influencing the overall occurrence of the organism. The incidence, isolation and detection of Campylobacter spp. from processed poultry are discussed.     

祁连山国家公园青海片区人兽冲突现状与牧民态度认知研究

在祁连山国家公园,人类与野生动物冲突已经成为一个普遍的问题。了解国家公园内牧民对肇事野生动物的态度,为探究野生动物肇事规律、针对肇事动物制定防控措施以及保护国家公园生态系统原真性、促进牧民与野生动物和谐相处具有重要的参考意义。通过实地走访调查了2014—2016年祁连山国家公园青海片区牧民与野生动物之间的冲突和牧民对于野生动物的态度认知。调查分析发现:11月—次年3月是祁连县野生动物肇事高峰期,狼和雪豹是捕食家畜的主要动物;狼被牧民认为是肇事最严重的动物,而实际数据表明雪豹的肇事频次却要高于狼,这与两种动物生活习性以及保护等级有关,加之牧民对雪豹肇事的容忍度更高;天峻县相比祁连县,除了狼以外其棕熊肇事频次较高,牧民认为应当大力控制狼和棕熊的种群数量,因为棕熊除了捕食家畜,更会伤害牧民和破坏房屋,威胁到牧民的生活,雪豹则需要进一步保护;牧民一般会选择使用牧羊犬和强化圈舍来防止野生动物捕食家畜;羊是祁连山国家公园青海片区牧民主要经济收入,牧民对狼吃食羊无法容忍,棕熊入户直接掠食伤人现象目前频次不高,但需提前防范。     

Simultaneous occurrence of deoxynivalenol, zearalenone, and aflatoxin in 1982 scabby wheat from the midwestern United States

Thirty-three samples of wheat of the 1982 crop year from Kansas and Nebraska were analyzed for deoxynivalenol, T-2 toxin, zearalenone, and aflatoxin. Deoxynivalenol was identified in 31 of 33 samples, zearalenone was identified in 3 of 33 samples, and aflatoxin B1 was identified in 23 of 31 samples. One 1982 wheat sample from Illinois and one from Texas were also contaminated with deoxynivalenol at 1,200 and 600 ng/g, respectively. None of the samples contained detectable T-2 toxin. The mean concentration of deoxynivalenol was 1,782 +/- 262 ng/g, and the concentrations of aflatoxin B1 ranged from 0.8 to 17.0 ng/g, with a mean of 3.37 +/- 0.7. Zearalenone concentrations of the three positive samples were 35, 90, and 115 ng/g. However, density segregation of two other samples which tested negative yielded light fractions, comprising less than 2% of the samples, contaminated at 230 and 254 ng of zearalenone per g; calculated zearalenone concentrations for these two samples were below the limit of detection of the method. The high frequency of aflatoxin B1 and deoxynivalenol in wheat from the 1982 crop is unprecedented, as is the simultaneous contamination of some samples with deoxynivalenol, zearalenone, and aflatoxin B1.     

Linkage mapping of the locus responsible for forelimb-girdle muscular anomaly of Japanese black cattle on bovine chromosome 26

Forelimb-girdle muscular anomaly is an autosomal recessive disorder of Japanese black cattle characterized by tremor, astasia and abnormal shape of the shoulders. Pathological examination of affected animals reveals hypoplasia of forelimb-girdle muscles with reduced diameter of muscle fibres. To identify the gene responsible for this disorder, we performed linkage mapping of the disorder locus using an inbred pedigree including a great-grand sire, a grand sire, a sire and 26 affected calves obtained from a herd of Japanese black cattle. Two hundred and fifty-eight microsatellite markers distributed across the genome were genotyped across the pedigree. Four markers on the middle region of bovine chromosome 26 showed significant linkage with the disorder locus. Haplotype analysis using additional markers in this region refined the critical region of the disorder locus to a 3.5-Mb interval on BTA26 between BM4505 and MOK2602 . Comparative mapping data revealed several potential candidate genes for the disorder, including NRAP , PDZD8 and HSPA12A , which are associated with muscular function.     

Spatial considerations for the allocation of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination in the United States

The impact of the next influenza pandemic may be mitigated by inducing immunity in individuals prior to the start of national epidemics using a pre-pandemic vaccine targeted against current avian influenza strains. The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) intends that pre-pandemic vaccines will be allocated to states in proportion to the size of their population in predefined priority groups, i.e. approximately pro-rata. We show that such an equitable policy is likely to be the least efficient in terms of the number of infections averted. We demonstrate that the potential benefits could be substantial if a fully discretionary policy is allowed, i.e. if some regions are allocated sufficient vaccines to achieve herd immunity while other regions are allocated no vaccine. Since such an inequitable policy may be impractical, we consider the sensitivity of an intermediate policy (in which 50% of the stockpile is allocated on a pro-rata basis) to key transmission uncertainties. The benefits of the 50% discretionary policy are sensitive to parameter values which cannot be known in advance. Therefore, despite substantial potential benefits of non-pro-rata policies, our results suggest that the current HHS policy of pro-rata allocation by state is a good compromise in terms of simplicity, robustness, equity and efficiency.     

Multiscale modeling of spring phenology across Deciduous Forests in the Eastern United States

Phenological events, such as bud burst, are strongly linked to ecosystem processes in temperate deciduous forests. However, the exact nature and magnitude of how seasonal and interannual variation in air temperatures influence phenology is poorly understood, and model‐based phenology representations fail to capture local‐ to regional‐scale variability arising from differences in species composition. In this paper, we use a combination of surface meteorological data, species composition maps, remote sensing, and ground‐based observations to estimate models that better represent how community‐level species composition affects the phenological response of deciduous broadleaf forests to climate forcing at spatial scales that are typically used in ecosystem models. Using time series of canopy greenness from repeat digital photography, citizen science data from the USA National Phenology Network, and satellite remote sensing‐based observations of phenology, we estimated and tested models that predict the timing of spring leaf emergence across five different deciduous broadleaf forest types in the eastern United States. Specifically, we evaluated two different approaches: (i) using species‐specific models in combination with species composition information to ‘upscale’ model predictions and (ii) using repeat digital photography of forest canopies that observe and integrate the phenological behavior of multiple representative species at each camera site to calibrate a single model for all deciduous broadleaf forests. Our results demonstrate variability in cumulative forcing requirements and photoperiod cues across species and forest types, and show how community composition influences phenological dynamics over large areas. At the same time, the response of different species to spatial and interannual variation in weather is, under the current climate regime, sufficiently similar that the generic deciduous forest model based on repeat digital photography performed comparably to the upscaled species‐specific models. More generally, results from this analysis demonstrate how in situ observation networks and remote sensing data can be used to synergistically calibrate and assess regional parameterizations of phenology in models.     

Estimating the spatial distribution of wintering little brown bat populations in the eastern United States

Depicting the spatial distribution of wildlife species is an important first step in developing management and conservation programs for particular species. Accurate representation of a species distribution is important for predicting the effects of climate change, land‐use change, management activities, disease, and other landscape‐level processes on wildlife populations. We developed models to estimate the spatial distribution of little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) wintering populations in the United States east of the 100th meridian, based on known hibernacula locations. From this data, we developed several scenarios of wintering population counts per county that incorporated uncertainty in the spatial distribution of the hibernacula as well as uncertainty in the size of the current little brown bat population. We assessed the variability in our results resulting from effects of uncertainty. Despite considerable uncertainty in the known locations of overwintering little brown bats in the eastern United States, we believe that models accurately depicting the effects of the uncertainty are useful for making management decisions as these models are a coherent organization of the best available information.