Waterfowl distribution and productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada: tools for conservation planning

Species conservation requires an understanding of the factors and interactions affecting species distribution and behavior, habitat availability and use, and corresponding vital rates at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Opportunities to investigate these relationships across broad geographic regions are rare. We combined long-term waterfowl population surveys, and studies of habitat use and breeding success, to develop models that identify and incorporate these interactions for upland-nesting waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Canada. Specifically, we used data from the annual Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (1961–2009) at the survey segment level and associated habitat covariates to model and map the long-term average duck density across the Canadian PPR. We analyzed nest location and fate data from approximately 25,000 duck nests found during 3 multi-year nesting studies (1994–2011) to model factors associated with nest survival and habitat selection through the nesting season for the 5 most common upland nesting duck species: mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwall (Mareca strepera), blue-winged teal (Spatula discors), northern shoveler (Spatula clypeata), and northern pintail (Anas acuta). Duck density was highly variable across the Canadian PPR, reflecting positive responses to local wetland area and count, and amounts of cropland and grassland, a regional positive response to latitude, and a negative response to local amounts of tree cover. Nest survival was affected by temporal and spatial variables at multiple scales. Specifically, nest survival demonstrated interactive effects among species, nest initiation date, and nesting cover type and was influenced by relative annual wetness, population density, and surrounding landscape composition at landscape scales, and broad geographic gradients (east-west and north-south). Likewise, species-specific probability of nest habitat selection was influenced by timing of nest initiation, population density, relative annual wetness, herbaceous cover, and tree cover in the surrounding landscape, and location within the Canadian PPR. We combined these models, with estimates of breeding effort (nesting, renesting, and nest attempts) from existing literature, in a stochastic conservation planning model that estimates nest distribution and success given spatiotemporal variation in duck density, habitat availability, and influential covariates. We demonstrate the use of this model by examining various conservation planning scenarios. These models allow estimation of local, landscape, and regional influence of conservation investments and other landscape changes on the productivity of breeding duck populations across the PPR of Canada. These models lay the groundwork for the incorporation of conservation delivery costs for full return-on-investment analyses and scenario analyses of climate, habitat, and land use change in regional and continental population models.     

Multiscale nest‐site selection of ducks in the western boreal forest of Alberta

There is limited data regarding the nesting ecology of boreal ducks and their response to industrial development, despite this region being an important North American breeding area. We investigated how landcover and oil and gas development affect third‐order nest‐site selection of boreal ducks. We located duck nests in Alberta''s western boreal forest between 2016 and 2018. We used multiscale analysis to identify how scale affects the selection of a resource using generalized linear mixed‐effects models and determined what scale‐optimized combination of landscape features were most important in describing where ducks nest. We located 136 nests of six species of upland nesting ducks between 2016 and 2018. The magnitude, direction, and best spatial scale varied by resource. For landcover, ducks selected nest‐sites associated with mineral wetlands (300 m) and open water (300 m). Ducks avoided greater densities of seismic lines (300 m) and pipelines (2500 m) but selected nest‐sites associated with borrow pits (300 m) and roads (1000 m). We used our models to predict important duck nesting habitat in the boreal forest, which can support conservation and management decisions. We recommend conservation actions target the conservation of mineral wetlands and associated habitats within this working landscape. Further research is necessary to understand the adaptive consequences of nest‐site selection and how industrial development influences important nest predators.     

Relationships between grazing and waterfowl production in the Canadian prairies

The survival of waterfowl nests is positively correlated with the amount of grassland on the landscape, and population growth rates of some waterfowl species (e.g., mallards [Anas platyrhynchos]) are sensitive to nest survival rates. Thus, the effect of actions that alter grassland vegetation physiognomy, such as grazing, on waterfowl production is of interest to waterfowl habitat managers. Additionally, grasslands contribute other ecological goods (e.g., forage for livestock and wildlife) and services (e.g., photosynthesis, carbon sequestration), which can be influenced by grazing practices. We address key uncertainties about the linkages between grazing, vegetation physiognomy, and the survival and density of duck nests at study-site, field, and nest-site spatial scales. Using data from 2,554 duck nests found in 434 grazed or idled fields (median field size = 48.0 ha) in the Canadian Prairie Pothole Region between 2002 and 2009, we found that vegetation physiognomy affected nest survival at both the field and nest-site scales, such that nest survival increased with nest-site vegetation density and late-season field vegetation density. Nest survival also responded to early-season within-field variation in vegetation height in a quadratic manner, such that survival was greatest in fields with moderate variation in vegetation height. Nest survival was negatively related to the intensity of grazing and to the amount of cropland in the surrounding landscape. Both the abundance of wetlands and the average vegetation height in the field had a positive influence on nest density. Fields idled during the breeding season had greater densities of nests than fields grazed either early or late in the breeding season. Leaving lands idled may be the most effective way to increase both waterfowl nest survival and nest density. When management of upland vegetation is required, we recommend grazing at moderate stocking rates (between 2 and 2.5 animal unit months [AUM]/ha) after the waterfowl breeding season is complete and monitoring vegetative characteristics to ensure they remain suitable to attract nesting waterfowl (e.g., leaving vegetation height >28 cm). Where grazing must be carried out during the breeding season, low to moderate stocking rates should be encouraged as these rates appear to have the least negative impact on both waterfowl nest survival and nest density. These stocking rates also will maintain rangeland in good condition to the long-term benefit of producers. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.     

Representation of Landcover Along Breeding Bird Survey Routes in the Northern Plains

ABSTRACT The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is used extensively to make inferences about populations of many North American bird species and is increasingly being used for avian conservation planning. How well BBS routes represent the landscape is poorly known, even though accuracy of representation could significantly affect inferences made from BBS data. We used digital landcover data to examine how well landcover within 400-m buffers around BBS routes represented the surrounding landscape (the route neighborhood) for 52 routes in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota and South Dakota. Differences in composition between landcover along BBS routes and the route neighborhood were not statistically significant for upland cover classes. The area of temporary and seasonal wetland basins was accurately represented by BBS routes in our study area, but the area of semipermanent and permanent wetland basins was significantly underrepresented along BBS routes. Number of wetland basins and upland patches was higher along routes. Area of urban, forest, and hay landcover classes was higher along routes, although differences were not statistically significant. Amount of bias in landcover representation was negatively correlated with the proportion of each landcover type in the study area, but bias was not correlated with area of the route neighborhoods. Differences between landcover along BBS routes and the route neighborhood were primarily attributable to increased anthropogenic activity along roads and siting of roads away from relatively large, deep water bodies. Our results suggest that inferences made from BBS data in our study region are likely biased for species that are associated with deeper-water habitats or are strongly influenced by landscape fragmentation. Inferences made from BBS data for species associated with uplands or shallow wetlands are less likely to be biased because of differences in landcover composition.     

Snow and land use alter pheasant survival in South Dakota

We examined survival of ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) occupying fragmented landscapes within the Prairie Pothole Region in South Dakota, USA, where severe winter weather events historically limited pheasant population growth through increased mortality. Recent landscape transformations could further affect overwinter adult female survival by reducing critical winter resources. Assessing the influence of time-dependent landscape features on survival at small focal scales may reveal spatially important relationships. We captured and monitored 321 adult female pheasants from 2017–2019 and recorded 110 pheasant winter mortalities. Female pheasant winter survival was 0.66 (85% CI = 0.62–0.70) and was inversely correlated to snow depth. We generated Cox proportional hazard models to determine risk of mortality associated with landscape features. Pheasants using landscapes other than perennial cover (i.e., emergent wetland, tall vegetation, woody, food plots) experienced a 2.22 times greater risk of raptor predation than pheasants using perennial cover. Additionally, pheasants experienced a 58% reduced risk of weather mortality when using emergent wetlands. We analyzed resource selection ratios to understand how perceived landscape risks at the population level scaled down to land use selection at the individual level. Female pheasants selected for emergent wetlands, showed no selection for woody features, and avoided tall vegetation (non-aquatic herbaceous vegetation >75 cm) during severe winters. Pheasants would greatly benefit from conservation of emergent wetlands and integrating perennial cover into harvested cropland.     

Duck Productivity in Restored Species-Rich Native and Species-Poor Non-Native Plantings

Conservation efforts to increase duck production have led the United States Fish and Wildlife Service to restore grasslands with multi-species (3-5) mixtures of introduced cool season vegetation often termed dense nesting cover (DNC). The effectiveness of DNC to increase duck production has been variable, and maintenance of the cover type is expensive. In an effort to decrease the financial and ecological costs (increased carbon emissions from plowing and reseeding) of maintaining DNC and provide a long-term, resilient cover that will support a diversity of grassland fauna, restoration of multi-species (16-32) plantings of native plants has been explored. We investigated the vegetation characteristics, nesting density and nest survival between the 2 aforementioned cover types in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA from 2010–2011 to see if restored-native plantings provide similar benefits to nesting hens as DNC. We searched 14 fields (7 DNC, 271 ha; and 7 restored native, 230 ha) locating 3384 nests (1215 in restored-native vegetation and 2169 in DNC) in 2010-2011. Nest survival was similar between cover types in 2010, while DNC had greater survival than native plantings in 2011. Densities of nests adjusted for detection probability were not different between cover types in either year. We found no structural difference in vegetation between cover types in 2010; however, a difference was detected during the late sampling period in 2011 with DNC having deeper litter and taller vegetation. Our results indicate restored-native plantings are able to support similar nesting density as DNC; however, nest survival is more stable between years in DNC. It appears the annual variation in security between cover types goes undetected by hens as hens selected cover types at similar levels both years.     

Vegetation phenology and nest survival: Diagnosing heterogeneous effects through time

Birds should select nest sites that minimize predation risk, but understanding the influence of vegetation on nest survival has proven problematic. Specifically, the common practice of measuring vegetation on nest fate date can overestimate its effect on nest survival, simply because vegetation at hatched nests grows for a longer period of time than vegetation at nests that were depredated. Here, we sampled the literature to determine the prevalence of this bias in studies of duck breeding ecology. We then used survival data collected from ~2,800 duck nests to empirically evaluate evidence of bias in four different vegetation metrics: vegetation density measured when the nest was found, density when the nest was fated, and date‐corrected regression residuals of these two. We also diagnosed the magnitude of vegetation effects on nest survival by restricting our analysis to only nests which were fated contemporaneously (thereby removing potential bias in the timing of measurement). Finally, we examined whether systematic phenological differences exist between vegetation at hatched and depredated nests that have the potential to further obfuscate the relationship between vegetation and nest survival. We found evidence for a true‐positive effect of vegetation density on nest survival that appeared to be inflated when using raw vegetation measurements collected at fate date. However, taken in combination with the literature review, our results suggest that the majority of duck nesting studies have evaluated the role of vegetation on nest survival using a relatively less biased metric—vegetation density when the nest was found. Finally, we found that over the course of a nesting attempt, vegetation increased in density at successful nests, but decreased in density at depredated nests. As a consequence, duck researchers using vegetation data collected when the nest was found may actually be underestimating the magnitude of the effect. This seasonal change potentially points to an important new metric for understanding predation risk, but further experimental research is required to fully eliminate potential biases in the timing of vegetation measurements.     

Microhabitat nest‐site selection by ducks in the boreal forest

The boreal forest is one of the North America’s most important breeding areas for ducks, but information about the nesting ecology of ducks in the region is limited. We collected microhabitat data related to vegetation structure and composition at 157 duck nests and paired random locations in Alberta’s boreal forest region from 2016 to 2018. We identified fine‐scale vegetation features selected by ducks for all nests, between nesting guilds, and among five species using conditional logistic regression. Ducks in the boreal forest selected nest sites with greater overhead and graminoid cover, but less forb cover than random sites. Characteristics of the nest sites of upland‐ and overwater‐nesting guilds differed, with species nesting in upland habitat selecting nests that provided greater shrub cover and less lateral concealment and species nesting over water selecting nests with less shrub cover. We examined the characteristics of nest sites of American Wigeon (Mareca americana), Blue‐winged Teal (Spatula discors), Green‐winged Teal (Anas crecca), Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and Ring‐necked Ducks (Aythya collaris), and found differences among species that may facilitate species coexistence at a regional scale. Our results suggest that females of species nesting in upland habitat selected nest sites that optimized concealment from aerial predators while also allowing detection of and escape from terrestrial predators. Consequently, alteration in the composition and heterogeneity of vegetation and predator communities caused by climate change and industrial development in the boreal forest of Canada may affect the nest‐site selection strategies of boreal ducks.     

Birds nesting survival in disturbed and protected Neotropical savannas

Fragmentation and other habitat disturbances are long known to negatively affect birds, in large part by decreasing nest success due to high nest predation rates. The factors, however, that cause this decrease in nest success are still poorly understood and may vary among regions or species. Here, we show that nest survival is also lower in a disturbed landscape versus a protected cerrado (savanna-like) Neotropical landscape. Also, we tested the importance of garbage in the nest, brood parasitism, microhabitat and bird family in nest survival, controlling for temporal effects. We monitored 144 birds’ nests in a disturbed landscape and 150 nests in a natural reserve of cerrado vegetation in central Brazil, between September and December 2006. We used Program MARK to estimate nest survival probabilities and evaluate the effect of covariates in nest success in the disturbed area. Nest daily survival rate (DSR) was higher in the reserve (survival probability = 29.4%) than in the disturbed landscape (survival probability = 16.6%). Nest daily survival rate (DSR) was smaller in nests with garbage (survival probability = 9.3%) than in nests without garbage (survival probability = 19.5%) in the disturbed landscape. Effects of habitat disturbance on nest survival differed among bird families, with finches and tanagers being more affected mostly due to high nest predation rates. Conservation and management of birds in disturbed landscapes should include actions to decrease nest predation. In poor rural or suburban areas in developing countries, such as Brazil, actions like better garbage treatment may help conserve birds in disturbed landscapes.     

Waterfowl Nesting in Fall-Seeded and Spring-Seeded Cropland in Saskatchewan

Abstract: Waterfowl nesting in annual croplands has remained a little-known aspect of waterfowl nesting ecology because of the inability of many studies to systematically search this habitat through the nesting season. Where searches have been conducted, they are generally restricted to the period prior to seeding, and many nests found are destroyed by the seeding operation. Consequently, fall-seeded crops have been promoted as an alternative cropping practice that could increase nest survival of waterfowl nesting in croplands. During 1996–1999, we conducted 3–4 complete nest searches on 4,274 ha of cropland, including spring-seeded wheat and barley, winter wheat, and fall rye in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. Using suites of predictive models, we tested hypotheses regarding relative nest abundance and nest survival among crop types and tested the influence of several landscape-scale covariates on these metrics. Apparent nest densities were higher in fall-seeded crops (winter wheat: 0.39 nests/ha, fall rye: 0.25 nests/ha) than in spring-seeded crops (0.03 nests/ha), and nest density in spring-seeded croplands increased with percent cropland and percent wetland habitat in the surrounding landscape. Nest survival was higher in winter wheat (38%) than in either fall rye (18%) or spring-seeded crops (12%), and nest survival in spring-seeded crops increased with relative nest initiation date. Nest survival was unaffected by surrounding landscape characteristics but tended to be higher in years of average wetness. Based on our findings, winter wheat and fall rye have the potential to provide productive nesting habitat for ≥7 species of upland nesting ducks and fall-seeded crops are a conservation tool well suited to highly cropped landscapes.     

Cropland edge,forest succession,and landscape affect shrubland bird nest predation

The effects of habitat edges on nest survival of shrubland birds, many of which have experienced significant declines in the eastern United States, have not been thoroughly studied. In 2007 and 2008, we collected data on nests of 5 shrubland passerine species in 12 early successional forest patches in North Carolina, USA. We used model selection methods to assess the effect of distance to cropland and mature forest edge on nest predation rates and additionally accounted for temporal trends, nest stage, vegetation structure, and landscape context. For nests of all species combined, nest predation decreased with increasing distance to cropland edge, by nearly 50% at 250 m from the cropland edge. Nest predation of all species combined also was higher in patches with taller saplings and less understory vegetation, especially in the second year of our study when trees were 4–6 m tall. Predation of field sparrow (Spizella pusilla) nests was lower in landscapes with higher agricultural landcover. Nest predation risk for shrubland birds appears to be greater near agricultural edges than mature forest edges, and natural forest succession may drive patterns of local extirpation of shrubland birds in early successional forest patches. Thus, we suggest that habitat patches managed for shrubland bird populations should be considerably large or wide (>250 m) when adjacent to crop fields and maintained in structurally diverse early seral stages. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Effects of Large-Scale Predator Reduction on Nest Success of Upland Nesting Ducks

ABSTRACT Population growth for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and presumably other upland nesting ducks, in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States and Canada is most sensitive to nest success, and nest success is most strongly influenced by predation. We evaluated the efficacy of reducing predator populations to improve nest success of upland nesting ducks on township-sized (93.2 km²) management units in eastern North Dakota, USA, during 2005–2007. We monitored 7,489 nests on 7 trapped and 5 nontrapped sites. Trappers annually removed an average of 245 predators per trapped site, and we found nest success to be 1.4–1.9 times greater on trapped sites than nontrapped sites, depending on year. Nest success was greater on both trapped and nontrapped sites when compared with a study conducted in the same areas in the mid-1990s, likely because of changes in red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and coyote (Canis latrans) population dynamics. Nests initiated midseason had higher daily survival rates (DSR) than those initiated earlier or later in the season. Daily survival rates for nests in the middle of the nesting cycle were higher than for nests that were early in laying or late in incubation. Nests near the periphery of trapped sites had slightly higher DSRs than nests in the center of trapped sites. Predator reduction at the township scale provides managers with an effective tool to improve nest success at large spatial scales.     

Does cowbird parasitism increase predation risk to American redstart nests?

Brood parasitism and nest predation are major causes of reproductive failure for many bird species nesting in fragmented landscapes. While brood parasites and predators may act independently, they could also interact if brood parasites increase the likelihood that predators detect nests. In this study, we examined the interaction between cowbird parasitism and nest predation in a 10 year study on 466 American redstart Setophaga ruticilla nests in central Alberta, Canada. We used advanced nest survival models to examine the support for three mechanisms that might lead to a positive correlation between brood parasitism and nest predation: 1) the presence of a cowbird nestling might increase the detection of the nest by predators, 2) nests with lower cover are more likely to be detected by both cowbirds and predators, and 3) cowbirds and predators may co-occur in landscapes of similar structure. Twelve percent of nests were parasitized and those nests had a 16–19% higher rate of failure due to predators compared to unparasitized nests. Daily nest predation rates increased during the nestling stage for both groups, but more strongly for parasitized nests. Loud begging by the cowbird nestling and/or higher parental feeding rates for the cowbird may have increased nest detectability to predators. Brood parasitism and nest predation were also positively related to forest cover, indicating landscape level effects were influential. Most nest predators were forest species and we suspect cowbirds responded positively to forest cover because of the increased abundance of songbird hosts. Nest-site features had less of an impact on nest predation or brood parasitism, although nests with higher overhead cover were less susceptible to predators. Our study shows how multiple mechanisms, particularly the behavioral effects of the brood parasite nestling and landscape structure, can lead to a positive relationship between nest predation and brood parasitism.     

Responses to land cover and grassland management vary across life‐history stages for a grassland specialist

Grassland birds have exhibited dramatic and widespread declines since the mid‐20th century. Greater prairie chickens (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) are considered an umbrella species for grassland conservation and are frequent targets of management, but their responses to land use and management can be quite variable. We used data collected during 2007–2009 and 2014–2015 to investigate effects of land use and grassland management practices on habitat selection and survival rates of greater prairie chickens in central Wisconsin, USA. We examined habitat, nest‐site, and brood‐rearing site selection by hens and modeled effects of land cover and management on survival rates of hens, nests, and broods. Prairie chickens consistently selected grassland over other cover types, but selection or avoidance of management practices varied among life‐history stages. Hen, nest, and brood survival rates were influenced by different land cover types and management practices. At the landscape scale, hens selected areas where brush and trees had been removed during the previous year, which increased hen survival. Hens selected nest sites in hay fields and brood‐rearing sites in burned areas, but prescribed fire had a negative influence on hen survival. Brood survival rates were positively associated with grazing and were highest when home ranges contained ≈15%–20% shrub/tree cover. The effects of landscape composition on nest survival were ambiguous. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of evaluating responses to management efforts across a range of life‐history stages and suggest that a variety of management practices are likely necessary to provide structurally heterogeneous, high‐quality habitat for greater prairie chickens. Brush and tree removal, grazing, hay cultivation, and prescribed fire may be especially beneficial for prairie chickens in central Wisconsin, but trade‐offs among life‐history stages and the timing of management practices must be considered carefully.     

GRASSLAND BIRDS NESTING IN HAYLANDS OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN: LANDSCAPE INFLUENCES AND CONSERVATION PRIORITIES

Abstract: To determine the benefits to grassland birds of converting cropland to hayland in southern Saskatchewan, Canada, we quantified the relative nest abundance and success of grassland nesting birds in haylands and the influence landscape variables have on these parameters. We found nests of 26 species of grassland nesting birds, primarily waterfowl and vesper sparrow (Pooecetes gramineus). With the exception of the northern pintail (Anas acuta), few nesting attempts were recorded for species of high priority in the Prairie Pothole Bird Conservation Region. Mayfield nest success for all waterfowl (20 and 13% in 1999 and 2000, respectively) was high relative to previously reported nest success estimates in other habitat types—especially spring-seeded cropland—and was near levels thought to be required to sustain populations (15–20%). Vesper sparrow nest success (39 and 33% in 1999 and 2000, respectively) also was high relative to that reported in other studies. Haying destroyed few nests as wet weather delayed operations in 1999 and 2000. More nests may be destroyed by haying in other years as approximately 25% of nests in this study were still active on the long-term average haying date for southern Saskatchewan. Among models we developed to explain waterfowl relative nest abundance, amount of cropland in the surrounding landscape and field area were the most informative. Evidence that a specific set of landscape variables was important to models of waterfowl nest success was equivocal. Landscape variables did not explain variation in vesper sparrow relative nest abundance or nest success. Within our study area, conversion of cropland to hayland appears to provide significant benefits to a variety of grassland species, including some species of high conservation priority (e.g., northern pintail). Grassland species of conservation concern nested less frequently in hayland than in native grassland.     

Waterfowl Use of Dense Nesting Cover in the Canadian Parklands

ABSTRACT Dense nesting cover (DNC) has been a conspicuous component of habitat management for upland-nesting ducks for >30 years, but its benefits for nesting ducks have been contentious. During 1994–1999 we monitored 3,058 dabbling duck (Anas spp.) nests in 84 DNC fields located throughout the Canadian Parklands to examine sources of among-field variation in nest density and nesting success. Nest density averaged 1.51 (SE=0.15) nests/ha and overall nesting success was 20.4%, but there was pronounced annual variation in both estimates. Nesting success increased with increasing field size (range = 6–111 ha), but nest density remained constant. Nest density increased with percent wetland habitat within DNC fields and declined with percent perennial cover in the surrounding 2.4 × 2.4-km landscape, but these variables were not important for predicting nesting success. Nest abundance and nesting success roughly doubled in fields seeded with alfalfa (Medicago sativa) or sweet clovers (Melilotus spp.), but there was no benefit from using native as opposed to tame grasses. We recommend that waterfowl managers in the Canadian Parklands establish DNC with alfalfa in large fields in landscapes with abundant wetlands but minimal competing cover.     

Factors Affecting Nest Survival of Greater Sage-Grouse in Northcentral Montana

Abstract: We studied greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in northcentral Montana, USA, to examine the relationship between nest success and habitat conditions, environmental variables, and female sage-grouse characteristics. During 2001-2003, we radiomarked 243 female greater sage-grouse, monitored 287 nests, and measured 426 vegetation plots at 4 sites in a 3,200-km² landscape. Nest survival varied with year, grass canopy cover, daily precipitation with a 1-day lag effect, and nesting attempt. In all years, daily survival rate increased on the day of a rain event and decreased the next day. There was temporal variation in nest success both within and among years: success of early (first 28 d of nesting season) nests ranged from 0.238 (SE = 0.080) in 2001 to 0.316 (SE = 0.055) in 2003, whereas survival of late (last 28 d of nesting season) nests ranged from 0.276 (SE = 0.090) in 2001 to 0.418 (SE = 0.055) in 2003. Renests experienced higher survival than first nests. Grass cover was the only important model term that could be managed, but direction and magnitude of the grass effect varied. Site, shrub and forb canopy cover, and Robel pole reading were less useful predictors of nest success; however, temporal and spatial variation in these habitat covariates was low during our study. We note a marked difference between both values and interpretations of apparent nest success, which have been used almost exclusively in the past, and maximum-likelihood estimates used in our study. Annual apparent nest success (0.46) was, on average, 53% higher than maximum-likelihood estimates that incorporate individual, environmental, and habitat covariates. The difference between estimates was variable (range = +8% to +91%). Management of habitats for nesting sage-grouse should focus on increasing grass cover to increase survival of first nests and contribute to favorable conditions for renesting, which should be less likely if survival of first nests increases.     

Appearance and vulnerability of artificial duck nests to avian predators

Use of artificial nests in studies of nest success in birds has become increasingly popular, but this practice has been criticised because the appearance and success of artificial nests may differ from natural nests. Typically, artificial nests are presented with few visible eggs throughout the entire exposure period while natural nests during their life have different appearances, possibly producing stage-dependent predation rates. In ducks, nests may appear with openly visible eggs, eggs covered with nest material and covered by an incubating female. To test how nest appearance may affect nest survival, I simulated such duck nest appearances, and used direct observations to record responses of marsh harriers Circus aeruginosus , the dominant duck nest predator at the Lake Engure, Latvia, during the breeding seasons 2000–2002. I recorded 274 harrier flights over all types of artificial nests, 74 nest discoveries and 54 predation events. Logistic regression analyses showed that nest appearance was a significant predictor of the fate of the nest: nests with openly visible eggs were discovered more often than nests covered with nest material. Nests with dummy females had discovery rates similar to the average of all artificial nest types suggesting that they best reflect the predation risk of artificial nests and could be used in future studies. After discovering nests covered with dummy females, harriers never attacked but tried to scare them off to get access to the eggs. In 52% of cases of nest discovery, harriers gave up before touching the dummy. This shows that duck passive nest defence may prevent clutch predation.     

Columbian sharp-tailed grouse female and nest survival in northwestern Colorado

Wildlife management and conservation can be challenging when the demography of a focal species is unknown or limited given that fecundity and adult survival influence population growth. The Columbian sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus columbianus) have been reduced to ≤10% of their former range since the early 1900s. We conducted a 3-year study (2015–2017) across 4 study sites in northwestern Colorado, USA, to evaluate female hazard and nest survival. We trapped and marked 270 female sharp-tailed grouse and identified 275 nests for our hazard and survival analyses. Females during the breeding stage of the reproductive season experienced more hazard compared to the nesting and the early and late post-nesting stages for females without broods. Females experienced a higher degree of hazard during the breeding stage and mortality risk was >3 times higher than the nesting stage, >7 times higher than early post-nesting (EPN)-no brood stage, and >5 times higher than the late post-nesting (LPN)-unsuccessful stage. Two reproductive season stages (LPN-successful and EPN-brood) provided marginal inference. Nest incubation initiation date and nest age best described nest daily survival. Females that initiated incubation of initial nests earlier in the season experienced lower nest daily survival than later in the incubation season. Because female Columbian sharp-tailed grouse hazard varied among different reproductive season stages, we recommend that wildlife managers develop management actions that reduce hazard during the specific reproductive season stages (i.e., the breeding season). For Columbian sharp-tailed grouse in Colorado, we recommend that Colorado Parks and Wildlife collaborate with federal farm program agencies to implement a no-tillage restriction from 1 May through 30 June for active agricultural fields within 2 km of active Columbian sharp-tailed grouse leks to enhance nest survival.     

Influence of olfactory and visual cover on nest site selection and nest success for grassland‐nesting birds

Habitat selection by animals is influenced by and mitigates the effects of predation and environmental extremes. For birds, nest site selection is crucial to offspring production because nests are exposed to extreme weather and predation pressure. Predators that forage using olfaction often dominate nest predator communities; therefore, factors that influence olfactory detection (e.g., airflow and weather variables, including turbulence and moisture) should influence nest site selection and survival. However, few studies have assessed the importance of olfactory cover for habitat selection and survival. We assessed whether ground‐nesting birds select nest sites based on visual and/or olfactory cover. Additionally, we assessed the importance of visual cover and airflow and weather variables associated with olfactory cover in influencing nest survival. In managed grasslands in Oklahoma, USA, we monitored nests of Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna), and Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum) during 2015 and 2016. To assess nest site selection, we compared cover variables between nests and random points. To assess factors influencing nest survival, we used visual cover and olfactory‐related measurements (i.e., airflow and weather variables) to model daily nest survival. For nest site selection, nest sites had greater overhead visual cover than random points, but no other significant differences were found. Weather variables hypothesized to influence olfactory detection, specifically precipitation and relative humidity, were the best predictors of and were positively related to daily nest survival. Selection for overhead cover likely contributed to mitigation of thermal extremes and possibly reduced detectability of nests. For daily nest survival, we hypothesize that major nest predators focused on prey other than the monitored species’ nests during high moisture conditions, thus increasing nest survival on these days. Our study highlights how mechanistic approaches to studying cover informs which dimensions are perceived and selected by animals and which dimensions confer fitness‐related benefits.