Resilience of marine turtle regional management units to climate change

Enhancing species resilience to changing environmental conditions is often suggested as a climate change adaptation strategy. To effectively achieve this, it is necessary first to understand the factors that determine species resilience, and their relative importance in shaping the ability of species to adjust to the complexities of environmental change. This is an extremely challenging task because it requires comprehensive information on species traits. We explored the resilience of 58 marine turtle regional management units (RMUs) to climate change, encompassing all seven species of marine turtles worldwide. We used expert opinion from the IUCN‐SSC Marine Turtle Specialist Group (n = 33 respondents) to develop a Resilience Index, which considered qualitative characteristics of each RMU (relative population size, rookery vulnerability, and genetic diversity) and non climate‐related threats (fisheries, take, coastal development, and pollution/pathogens). Our expert panel perceived rookery vulnerability (the likelihood of functional rookeries becoming extirpated) and non climate‐related threats as having the greatest influence on resilience of RMUs to climate change. We identified the world's 13 least resilient marine turtle RMUs to climate change, which are distributed within all three major ocean basins and include six of the world's seven species of marine turtle. Our study provides the first look at inter‐ and intra‐species variation in resilience to climate change and highlights the need to devise metrics that measure resilience directly. We suggest that this approach can be widely used to help prioritize future actions that increase species resilience to climate change.     

Juvenile proportion as a predictor of freshwater turtle population change

The extreme longevity of turtles and tortoises can make it difficult to determine the conservation status of their populations because high annual adult survival may mask gradual attrition due to low levels of recruitment. When long-term demographic trends are unknown and available data are insufficient for population modelling, it may be assumed that a scarcity of juveniles indicates low recruitment that will result in population ageing and numerical decline. However, the reliability with which the proportion of juveniles foreshadows demographic change is uncertain. We tested the hypothesis that a low proportion of juveniles in a turtle population presages its ageing by analysing over 20 years of survey data for five discrete populations of the Australian western saw-shelled turtle (Myuchelys bellii: Chelidae), a listed threatened species. The analysis tested whether the initial proportion of juvenile turtles in each population was related to its temporal trend in average body size. The five populations had varied structure and trends, with the initial proportion of juvenile turtles ranging from 10% to 39% and average body size increasing over time in some populations and decreasing in others. Contrary to expectation, the initial proportion of juveniles was unrelated to the trend in average body size and, by inference, average age, indicating that effective trend forecasting requires more detailed demographic information than merely population structure.     

Ineffectiveness of plastic mesh for protecting artificial freshwater turtle nests from red fox (Vulpes vulpes) predation

Invasive mammalian predators are efficient at driving native animal declines. The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) kills millions of endemic reptiles in Australia each year. In areas of south-eastern Australia, the eastern long-necked turtle (Chelodina longicollis) and Murray River turtle (Emydura macquarii) have declined by more than 50%. High rates of nest predation by foxes limit the recruitment of young turtles in these populations, but previous methods of fox control have been ineffective at protecting turtle nests. Here, we tested the effectiveness of plastic mesh for protecting artificial turtle nests from predation by foxes, in the mid-Murray catchment, Victoria. We also tested whether protecting a large number of artificial nests in a given area encourages foxes to give up foraging following predictions from giving-up density theory. We made a series of plots, each containing 32 artificial turtle nests. In each plot, we covered a percentage (0%, 25%, 50%, 81% or 100%) of the nests with either 1 or 2 sheets of plastic mesh. We used remote cameras to photograph and identify any predator that attacked nests in the plots. The cameras also allowed us to estimate the amount of time a fox was visible on each plot, as a metric of how much effort foxes expended on protected nests. Nest survival rate was not increased by either 1 or 2 sheets of mesh, and increasing the number of protected nests on a plot did not reveal a giving-up density (GUD) value for fox foraging behaviour. Our study demonstrates that plastic mesh is not effective for protecting artificial turtle nests from foxes in this region.     

Using an individual-based model for assessment of sea turtle population viability

Marine turtle species have a complex life history characterized by interannual variability in reproductive performance and a long life span. These ecological features in combination with the animals highly migratory nature create numerous difficulties when trying to assess population dynamics. This study attempts to couple existing information on species demographics and behavioral strategies with simple energetic rules in a theoretical framework. We study sea turtle population dynamics using an individual-based model that incorporates known behavioral-ecological characteristics of the species. Methodology used to design the model was based on the superindividual approach (Scheffer et al. Ecol Model 80:161–170, 1995). We constructed our simulation experiment on a virtual sea turtle population, which was parameterized by using recent literature reviews with emphasis on reproductive parameters of the Mediterranean loggerhead sea turtle population. Switching rules describing critical processes of reproductive performances were established as theoretical functions of efficiency of energy transfer. In order to explore the significance of variable reproductive patterns upon population dynamics and persistence, a series of simulations was performed. The model was also run under fluctuated demographic variables to perform a sensitivity analysis of critical parameters and life-history stages. Based on the specific model parameterization, simulation results show that population persistence was most sensitive to fecundity and to survival at the pelagic juvenile stage. Additionally a surprising finding is the relatively high importance of egg survival in terms of both hatching and hatchling success. We conclude that enhancing the population with new individuals by increasing survival in the early life stages could compensate for additional losses in other age classes. The need for further research regarding biological and behavioral features as well as basic demographic insights into the endangered loggerhead sea turtle is also highlighted.     

Predation of experimental nests is linked to local population dynamics in a fragmented bird population

Artificial nest experiments (ANEs) are widely used to obtain proxies of natural nest predation for testing a variety of hypotheses, from those dealing with variation in life-history strategies to those assessing the effects of habitat fragmentation on the persistence of bird populations. However, their applicability to real-world scenarios has been criticized owing to the many potential biases in comparing predation rates of artificial and natural nests. Here, we aimed to test the validity of estimates of ANEs using a novel approach. We related predation rates on artificial nests to population viability analyses in a songbird metapopulation as a way of predicting the real impact of predation events on the local populations studied. Predation intensity on artificial nests was negatively related to the species' annual population growth rate in small local populations, whereas the viability of large local populations did not seem to be influenced, even by high nest predation rates. The potential of extrapolation from ANEs to real-world scenarios is discussed, as these results suggest that artificial nest predation estimates may predict demographic processes in small structured populations.     

Cytokine mediated proliferation of cultured sea turtle blood cells: Morphologic and functional comparison to human blood cells

Blood cells from three different sea turtle species were cultured for approximately 3 weeks in nutrient medium supplemented with recombinant human cytokines known to induce terminal maturation of human hematological stem cells. Cultured turtle erythrocytes were translucent, approximately 10× larger than human erythrocytes, contained a single fluorescent inclusion body, contained nuclear epsilon (embryonic) globin proteins, and, absent of organelles while fresh cells contained few, but well defined mitochondria. Cells with basophilic cytoplasm and in all stages of proliferation were observed in cytokine-supplemented cultures and appeared to possess active protein synthesis. Cultured thrombocytes aggregated in response to agonists for at least 8 days, post-collection, contained P-selectin in the nucleus of 6 day cultured cells which appeared to be released after activation with collagen, and after 6 days had no organelles or open canalicular-like system (OCS) while freshly isolated cells demonstrated few, if any organelles but had a well developed OCS. The response of turtle cells to apparently homologous but unnatural human cytokines and the sustained biological properties of thrombocytes identify this suspension culture system as a powerful tool to explore the evolution of cell types and molecular components of hematopoiesis and hemostasis.     

Not so different after all: a comparison of methods for detecting amino acid sites under selection

We consider three approaches for estimating the rates of nonsynonymous and synonymous changes at each site in a sequence alignment in order to identify sites under positive or negative selection: (1) a suite of fast likelihood-based "counting methods" that employ either a single most likely ancestral reconstruction, weighting across all possible ancestral reconstructions, or sampling from ancestral reconstructions; (2) a random effects likelihood (REL) approach, which models variation in nonsynonymous and synonymous rates across sites according to a predefined distribution, with the selection pressure at an individual site inferred using an empirical Bayes approach; and (3) a fixed effects likelihood (FEL) method that directly estimates nonsynonymous and synonymous substitution rates at each site. All three methods incorporate flexible models of nucleotide substitution bias and variation in both nonsynonymous and synonymous substitution rates across sites, facilitating the comparison between the methods. We demonstrate that the results obtained using these approaches show broad agreement in levels of Type I and Type II error and in estimates of substitution rates. Counting methods are well suited for large alignments, for which there is high power to detect positive and negative selection, but appear to underestimate the substitution rate. A REL approach, which is more computationally intensive than counting methods, has higher power than counting methods to detect selection in data sets of intermediate size but may suffer from higher rates of false positives for small data sets. A FEL approach appears to capture the pattern of rate variation better than counting methods or random effects models, does not suffer from as many false positives as random effects models for data sets comprising few sequences, and can be efficiently parallelized. Our results suggest that previously reported differences between results obtained by counting methods and random effects models arise due to a combination of the conservative nature of counting-based methods, the failure of current random effects models to allow for variation in synonymous substitution rates, and the naive application of random effects models to extremely sparse data sets. We demonstrate our methods on sequence data from the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 env and pol genes and simulated alignments.     

A comparison of management strategies for conservation with regard to population fitness

Computer simulations have been carried out tocompare, under realistic genetic models, twomethods proposed in the literature to retaingenetic diversity in conservation programmes.In a two-step method, contributions of parentsare set up to produce minimum coancestry(kinship) among the offspring, and this isindependent of the mating system subsequentlyapplied. In a single-step method,contributions and matings are decidedsimultaneously in order to minimise coancestry.The comparison is made in terms of maintainedgenetic diversity and in terms of populationfitness. We conclude that the two methodsmaintain approximately the same geneticdiversity but the latter induces higher levelsof inbreeding, reducing the fitness of thepopulation. Avoidance of close relatives'matings improves this latter method, but thefitness levels do not reach those of thetwo-step scheme. We also investigate theperformances of different mating strategies incombination with minimum coancestry (two-stepmethod), concluding that these mating systemsdo not substantially affect the effectivenessof the management. Finally, we illustrate howminimum group coancestry can be restrictedto a minimum loss of fitness, if a measure ofthis is available for the individuals.     

Molecular resolution of marine turtle stock composition in fishery bycatch: a case study in the Mediterranean

Based on an extensive sampling regime from both nesting populations and bycatch, frequency analyses of mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region haplotypes in the Mediterranean were used to assess the genetic structure and stock composition of the loggerhead sea turtle, Caretta caretta, in different marine fisheries. The analyses show the following. (i) In drifting longline fisheries working in Mediterranean pelagic habitats 53–55% of turtles caught originated from the Mediterranean stock; (ii) In bottom-trawl fisheries all turtle bycatch is derived from this regional stock; (iii) This regional stock contribution to fishery bycatch suggests that the population size of the Mediterranean loggerhead nesting population is significantly larger than previously thought. This is consistent with a recent holistic estimate based on the discovery of a large rookery in Libya. (iv) Present impact of fishery-related mortality on the Mediterranean nesting population is probably incompatible with its long-term conservation. Sea turtle conservation regulations are urgently needed for the Mediterranean fisheries. (v) The significant divergence of mtDNA haplotype frequencies of the Turkish loggerhead colonies define this nesting population as a particularly important management unit. Large immature and adult stages from this management unit seem to be harvested predominantly by Egyptian fisheries. (vi) Combined with other data, our findings suggest that all the nesting populations in the Mediterranean should be considered as management units sharing immature pelagic habitats throughout the Mediterranean (and possibly the eastern Atlantic), with distinct and more localized benthic feeding habitats in the eastern basin used by large immatures and adults. (vii) Between the strict oceanic pelagic and the benthic stages, immature turtles appear to live through an intermediate neritic stage, in which they switch between pelagic and benthic foods.     

生物多样性维护生态保护红线划定方法对比

科学地评价区域内生物多样性维护功能重要性是生态保护红线划定中的重要环节,目前在生态保护红线划定导则中,推荐了NPP(净初级生产力,Net Primary Productivity)法和物种分布模型法,其中NPP法因其所需因子较少、计算简便得到广泛应用,物种分布模型法因所需因子较多、计算繁琐,应用较少。分别选用NPP法和MaxEnt(最大熵,Maximum Entropy)模型法对盘锦市生物多样性维护功能重要性进行评价,两种方法结果对比表明,NPP法无法覆盖全部的生物多样性重要区域,并且受农作物高NPP值的影响,其划定结果与鸟类实际分布范围不符,而MaxEnt模型法的结果更准确,与鸟类实际分布范围更相符,利用MaxEnt模型法最终得到盘锦市生物多样性维护生态保护红线面积1050.17km~2,占盘锦市陆域面积的25.85%,基本覆盖了境内东方白鹳、丹顶鹤、黑嘴鸥、震旦鸦雀等所有重点珍稀野生物种的栖息地和迁移路径的停歇地。本研究对生态保护红线划定工作具有重要的指导意义,其结果能为盘锦珍稀濒危鸟类的保护与管理提供科学支撑。     

Coupled saccharification and fermentation of pre-treated Eucalyptus wood: a simple kinetic model

Coupled saccharification and fermentation of Eucalyptus globulus wood, pre-treated by acid hydrolysis and sodium hypochlorite, was carried out in two column reactors: one for enzymatic hydrolysis of the substrate at 50°C and the other for fermentation of sugars with calcium alginate-immobilized Saccharomyces cerevisiae at 30°C. A buffered solution containing cellulases at pH 4.8 was recycled through both reactors. The maximum yields were about 0.26 g ethanol per g of substrate. The results were reproduced reasonably well using a simple kinetic model consisting of two successive pseudo-first-order reactions.C. Albornoz and D. M. Ferrari are with the Centro de Investigaciones Tecnológicas (CIT), Administración Nacional de Combustibles, Alcohol y Portland (ANCAP), Pando, Canelones, C.P. 91000, Uruguay. S. Blanco and G. Ellenrieder are with Instituto de Investigaciones para la Industria Química (INIQUI), Universidad Nacional de Salta (UNSa), Buenos Aires 177, 4400 Salta, Argentina.     

Stochastic matrix models for conservation and management: a comparative review of methods

Stochastic matrix models are frequently used by conservation biologists to measure the viability of species and to explore various management actions. Models are typically parameterized using two or more sets of estimated transition rates between age/size/stage classes. While standard methods exist for analyzing a single set of transition rates, a variety of methods have been employed to analyze multiple sets of transition rates. We review applications of stochastic matrix models to problems in conservation and use simulation studies to compare the performance of different analytic methods currently in use. We find that model conclusions are likely to be robust to the choice of parametric distribution used to model vital rate fluctuations over time. However, conclusions can be highly sensitive to the within-year correlation structure among vital rates, and therefore we suggest using analytical methods that provide a means of conducting a sensitivity analysis with respect to correlation parameters. Our simulation results also suggest that the precision of population viability estimates can be improved by using matrix models that incorporate environmental covariates in conjunction with experiments to estimate transition rates under a range of environmental conditions.     

Evolutionary responses to a changing climate: Implications for reindeer population viability

If we want to understand how climate change affects long‐lived organisms, we must know how individuals allocate resources between current reproduction and survival. This trade‐off is affected by expected environmental conditions, but the extent to which density independent (DI) and density dependent (DD) processes interact in shaping individual life histories is less clear. Female reindeer (or caribou: Rangifer tarandus) are a monotocous large herbivore with a circumpolar distribution. Individuals that experience unpredictable and potentially harsh winters typically adopt risk averse strategies where they allocate more resources to building own body reserves during summer and less to reproduction. Such a strategy implies that the females do not reproduce or that they produce fewer or smaller offspring. A risk averse strategy thus results in females with large autumn body reserves, which is known to increase their survival probabilities if the coming winter is harsh. In contrast, females experiencing predictable winters may adopt a more risk prone strategy in which they allocate more resources to reproduction as they do not need as many resources to buffer potentially adverse winter conditions. This study uses a seasonal state‐dependent model showing that DD and DI processes interact to affect the evolution of reproductive strategies and population dynamics for reindeer. The model was run across a wide range of different winter climatic scenarios: One set of simulations where the average and variability of the environment was manipulated and one set where the frequency of good and poor winters increased. Both reproductive allocation and population dynamics of reindeer were affected by a combination of DI and DD processes even though they were confounded (harsh climates resulted in lowered density). Individual strategies responded, in line with a risk sensitive reproductive allocation, to climatic conditions and in a similar fashion across the two climatic manipulations.     

Large-scale grid-based detection in occupancy surveys of a threatened small mammal: A comparison of two non-invasive methods

Monitoring the status and trends of wildlife is key to understand how species respond to natural and human-derived threats, and to evaluate and improve conservation planning and management. Large-scale, grid-based assessment of species distribution, abundance, and population trends over time is an important component of biodiversity monitoring. However, such assessments still present important challenges related, for instance, to how the choice of the sampling method may affect species detectability and thus, overall data accuracy. Here, we address this issue, focusing on the Cabrera vole (Microtus cabrerae), a threatened small mammal, listed in the Habitats Directive (Annexes II and IV), hence requiring regular evaluation of its population status and trends. We used occupancy modelling to estimate method-specific detection probability of the species over large-scale, grid-based (10 × 10 km²) surveys relying on two non-invasive sampling techniques: sign surveys and owl pellet analysis. Results provided evidence for a greater cost-effectiveness of sign surveys compared to owl pellet analysis for detecting the species in occupancy surveys, suggesting that large-scale population monitoring of Cabrera voles (or other species also producing easily identifiable signs of their presence) may fairly rely on sign-surveys. Overall, our study supported the view that while owl pellet analysis provides a valuable option when the aim is to assess small mammal assemblages (i.e. multiple species) in a region, other complementary methods may be required to increase the detection probability of certain species that because of their secretive behaviour or rarity remain less predated by owls. We thus argue that the choice of the sampling method should be context-dependent and evaluated based on the study aims, the surveyed area (i.e. local factors), the target species (i.e. life history traits) and the available resources. Based on our results we recommend that researchers and managers explore survey-design trade-offs to ensure the proposed designs have sufficient power to detect real population trends.     

Not all predators are equal: a continent‐scale analysis of the effects of predator control on Australian mammals

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Estimating population structure under nonequilibrium conditions in a conservation context: continent-wide population genetics of the giant Amazon river turtle, Podocnemis expansa (Chelonia; Podocnemididae)

Giant Amazon river turtles, Podocnemis expansa, are indigenous to the Amazon, Orinoco, and Essequibo River basins, and are distributed across nearly the entire width of the South American continent. Although once common, their large size, high fecundity, and gregarious nesting, made P. expansa especially vulnerable to over-harvesting for eggs and meat. Populations have been severely reduced or extirpated in many areas throughout its range, and the species is now regulated under Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species. Here, we analyse data from mitochondrial DNA sequence and multiple nuclear microsatellite markers with an array of complementary analytical methods. Results show that concordance from multiple data sets and analyses can provide a strong signal of population genetic structure that can be used to guide management. The general lack of phylogeographic structure but large differences in allele and haplotype frequencies among river basins is consistent with fragmented populations and female natal-river homing. Overall, the DNA data show that P. expansa populations lack a long history of genetic differentiation, but that each major tributary currently forms a semi-isolated reproductive population and should be managed accordingly.