Tree and shrub dynamics in northwestern Great Basin woodland and shrub steppe during the Late-Pleistocene and Holocene

During the last 12,000 to 30,000 years, a large proportion of the dominant trees and shrubs in modem assemblages of woodland and shrub steppe vegetation in the northwestern Great Basin have undergone relatively small changes in their geographic ranges. A woodland tree, Juniperus osteosperma, has an extensive temporal and spatial fossil record from 11 woodrat midden locales that were sampled in the northwestern Great Basin. Above 1,300 m elevation, J. osteosperma has been continuously present in that fossil record for at least the last 30,000 years. However, J. osteosperma was lost at elevations below 1,300 m sometime during the last 10,000 years, during the Holocene. Although the elevational ranges of six shrub taxa show changes during the Holocene, geographic ranges of 11 other shrub taxa have been largely static. Of the woodland and shrub steppe species examined, Pinus monophylla has experienced the greatest change in its geographic range during the late-Pleistocene and Holocene. Pinus monophylla has migrated northward across the Great Basin from Pleistocene refugia in the southern portions of this region. The rate of latitudinal migration was more rapid along the eastern side of the Great Basin than on the western side. Thus, the species that comprise modern woodland and shrub steppe communities of the northwestern Great Basin appear to have two strategies to cope with climate change. First are species, as exemplified by J. osteosperma, whose geographic ranges were relatively insensitive to climate change and are termed orthoselective species. High genetic variation within species and the formation of coenospecies likely allowed these species to cope with climatic change by genetic adaptation. Secondly, other species, as exemplified by P. monophylla, have experienced shifts in their geographic range during past climate changes and more clearly fit the migration model of species response to climate change.     

Inclusion of local environmental conditions alters high-latitude vegetation change predictions based on bioclimatic models

Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are typically based on coarse-grained climate surfaces utilizing bioclimate envelope modelling. However, the suitability of environmental conditions for a given species might result from a variety of factors including some unrelated to climate. To address this issue, we investigated whether the inclusion of topographical and soil information in bioclimatic envelope models would significantly alter predictions of climate change—induced fine-scale tree and shrub species range size changes at the tree-limit in subarctic Europe. Using generalized additive models and data on current climate and species distributions and three different climate scenarios for the period 2040–2069, we developed predictions of the currently suitable area and potential range size changes of seven tree and shrub species in an area of 1,100 km² at a resolution of 1-ha. The inclusion of topography and soil information increased the predictive accuracy of climate-only models for all studied species. The predicted changes in species distribution volumes were contradictory, and the predicted occurrences varied greatly depending on the model used. Our results therefore support the arguments that vegetation responses to climate change can be influenced by local environmental conditions and that attention should be paid to the combined effects of these factors. We conclude that disregarding local topography and soil conditions in bioclimatic models may result in biased projections of range expansions and the associated colonization, extinction and turnover assessments.     

A New Tool for Exploring Climate Change Induced Range Shifts of Conifer Species in China

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS''s for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.     

LINEAGES THAT CHEAT DEATH: SURVIVING THE SQUEEZE ON RANGE SIZE

Evolutionary lineages differ greatly in their net diversification rates, implying differences in rates of extinction and speciation. Lineages with a large average range size are commonly thought to have reduced extinction risk (although linking low extinction to high diversification has proved elusive). However, climate change cycles can dramatically reduce the geographic range size of even widespread species, and so most species may be periodically reduced to a few populations in small, isolated remnants of their range. This implies a high and synchronous extinction risk for the remaining populations, and so for the species as a whole. Species will only survive through these periods if their individual populations are “threat tolerant,” somehow able to persist in spite of the high extinction risk. Threat tolerance is conceptually different from classic extinction resistance, and could theoretically have a stronger relationship with diversification rates than classic resistance. I demonstrate that relationship using primates as a model. I also show that narrowly distributed species have higher threat tolerance than widespread ones, confirming that tolerance is an unusual form of resistance. Extinction resistance may therefore operate by different rules during periods of adverse global environmental change than in more benign periods.     

Relative importance of climate vs local factors in shaping the regional patterns of forest plant richness across northeast China

Northeast (NE) China covers three climatic zones and contains all the major forest types of NE Asia. We sampled 108 forest plots in six nature reserves across NE China to examine the influence of climate and local factors (canopy seasonality, successional stage, topography and forest structure) on geographic patterns of plant richness. We analyzed the relative effects of different factors at two spatial scales: the regional scale (across both latitude and altitude) and the local scale (along the altitudinal gradient within site). Our results showed that the relative importance of climate vs local factors differed remarkably depending on scale and functional group. While total and tree species richness were mainly limited by climate, herb and shrub richness was more related to local factors (especially at the local scale). In the climatic factors, heat sum was the major correlate of tree, shrub and total species richness, while herb richness was more associated with winter coldness. Precipitation was not a limiting factor for forest plant richness in NE China. Climate accounted for 34–76% of variation in richness at the regional scale, but explained only 0–44% at the local scale. Among the local factors, shrub species richness was sensitive to seasonal canopy openness, with higher richness in deciduous forests than in the evergreen needle-leaf forest. On the other hand, herb richness was sensitive to forest successional stage, with higher richness in middle- successional forests than in the early and late-sucessional forests. Local topography (aspect and position on slope) and forest structure (tree density) also showed remarkable influence on species richness. Our results suggest the importance of including local factors when examining large scale diversity gradient (especially for understory species), and the necessity of comparing diversity patterns among functional groups at different spatial scales.     

Interspecific patterns of species richness, geographic range size, and body size among New World venomous snakes

Many higher taxa exhibit latitudinal gradients in species richness, geographic range size, and body size. However, these variables are often interdependent, such that examinations of univariate or bivariate patterns alone may be misleading. Therefore, I examined latitudinal gradients in, and relationships between, species richness, geographic range size, and body size among 144 species of New World venomous snakes [families Elapidae (coral snakes) and Viperidae (pitvipers)]. Both lineages are monophyletic, collectively span 99° of latitude, and are extremely variable in body size and geographic range sizes. Coral snakes exhibit highest species richness near the equator, while pitviper species richness peaks in Central America. Species – range size distributions were strongly right-skewed for both families. There was little support for Bergmann's rule or Rapoport's rule for snakes of either family, as neither body size nor range size increased significantly with latitude. However, range area and median range latitude were positively correlated above 15° N, indicating a possible "Rapoport effect" at high northern latitudes. Geographic range size was positively associated with body size. Available continental area strongly influenced range size. Comparative (phylogenetically-based) analyses revealed that shared history is a poor predictor of range size variation within clades. Among vipers, trends in geographic range sizes may have been structured more by historical biogeography than by macroecological biotic factors.     

Understanding global patterns in amphibian geographic range size: does Rapoport rule?

Aim Species geographic ranges are the ‘fundamental units’ of macroecology. Range size is a major correlate of extinction risk in many groups, and is also critical in studies of biotic responses to climate change. Despite this, there is a lack of studies exploring the role of environmental, historical and anthropogenic processes in determining large‐scale patterns in range size. We perform the first global analysis of putative drivers of range size variation in any group, choosing amphibians as our study taxon. Our aims are to disentangle the many hypothesized causes of range size variation and evaluate support for ‘Rapoport's rule’, the observation that range size correlates with latitude. Location Global. Methods We develop a global map of gridded median range size using the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) distribution maps. From this we perform spatial and non‐spatial regressions to explore relationships between range size and nine hypothesized variables in six biogeographic realms. We use information‐theoretic model selection to compare multiple competing variables, simultaneously evaluating the relative support for each one. Results Current climate – environmental water and energy, and temperature seasonality – is consistently highly ranked in spatial and non‐spatial analyses. Human impacts and other environmental measures (topographic and landscape complexity, effective area, climate extremes) show mixed support, and glacial history is consistently unimportant. Our findings add further evidence to the view that Rapoport's rule is a regional, not global, phenomenon. Main conclusions The primary importance of temperature seasonality may explain why Rapoport's rule is largely restricted to northern latitudes, as this is where seasonality is most pronounced. More generally, the dominance of contemporary climate in our analyses (even when accounting for space) has stark implications for the future status of amphibians. Changes in climate will almost certainly interact with the anthropogenic processes already threatening a third of amphibians globally, with the effects being most keenly felt by species with a restricted range.     

Intraspecific trait variation across elevation predicts a widespread tree species' climate niche and range limits

Global change is widely altering environmental conditions which makes accurately predicting species range limits across natural landscapes critical for conservation and management decisions. If climate pressures along elevation gradients influence the distribution of phenotypic and genetic variation of plant functional traits, then such trait variation may be informative of the selective mechanisms and adaptations that help define climatic niche limits. Using extensive field surveys along 16 elevation transects and a large common garden experiment, we tested whether functional trait variation could predict the climatic niche of a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with a double quantile regression approach. We show that intraspecific variation in plant size, growth, and leaf morphology corresponds with the species' total climate range and certain climatic limits related to temperature and moisture extremes. Moreover, we find evidence of genetic clines and phenotypic plasticity at environmental boundaries, which we use to create geographic predictions of trait variation and maximum values due to climatic constraints across the western US. Overall, our findings show the utility of double quantile regressions for connecting species distributions and climate gradients through trait‐based mechanisms. We highlight how new approaches like ours that incorporate genetic variation in functional traits and their response to climate gradients will lead to a better understanding of plant distributions as well as identifying populations anticipated to be maladapted to future environments.     

Neither species geographic range size,climatic envelope,nor intraspecific leaf trait variability capture habitat specialization in a hyperdiverse Amazonian forest

Many plant species exhibit strong association with topographic habitats at local scales. However, the historical biogeographic and physiological drivers of habitat specialization are still poorly understood, and there is a need for relatively easy‐to‐measure predictors of species habitat niche breadth. Here, we explore whether species geographic range, climatic envelope, or intraspecific variability in leaf traits is related to the degree of habitat specialization in a hyperdiverse tropical tree community in Amazonian Ecuador. Contrary to our expectations, we find no effect of the size of species geographic ranges, the diversity of climate a species experiences across its range, or intraspecific variability in leaf traits in predicting topographic habitat association in the ~300 most common tropical tree species in a 25‐ha tropical forest plot. In addition, there was no phylogenetic signal to habitat specialization. We conclude that species geographic range size, climatic niche breadth, and intraspecific variability in leaf traits fail to capture the habitat specialization patterns observed in this highly diverse tropical forest.     

Niche breadth and range area in North American trees

Identifying factors affecting species distribution is a longstanding goal in ecology and evolution that is accentuated by our need to anticipate climate change impacts. We sought to test whether any phylogenetic effect can be detected in either the environmental characteristics or range attributes of North American trees, and to explore the existence of a general interspecific pattern in the environmental factors influencing species range size. To do so we tested prevailing hypotheses relating climatic and edaphic characteristics to species range size in the North American arboflora (n = 598), using spatial null models to test for the relevance of observed patterns. We found that interspecific variation in the range area of North American trees is strongly related to the environmental regimes characteristic of the species range. Linear models and phylogenetic regressions involving six environmental characteristics explained 83% of the variance in species range area, and affirmed a positive relationship between niche breadth and range size. Tree species that can tolerate a larger variability in local climatic conditions, deal with harsher edaphic conditions, and weak levels of environmental energy tend to have larger range area; this can account for the greater geographic range of species at higher latitudes, the Rapoport effect. There is a significant phylogenetic signal for both range area and limits in North American trees, and for climatic limits, but not for energy or edaphic characteristics associated with species range. These findings highlight the possibility that species with small geographic ranges may be more sensitive to the effects of climate change.     

How are tree species distributed in climatic space? A simple and general pattern

Aim Although many factors undoubtedly affect species geographic distributions, can a single, simple model nonetheless capture most of the spatial variation in the probability of presence/absence in a large set of species? For 482 North American tree species that occur east of the Rocky Mountains, we investigated the shape(s) of the relationship between the probability of occupancy of a given location and macroclimate, and its consistency among species and regions. Location North America. Methods Using Little's tree range maps, we tested four hypothetical shapes of response relating occupancy to climate: (1) high occupancy of all suitable climates; (2) threshold response (i.e. unsuitable climates exclude species, but within the thresholds, species presence is independent of climate); (3) occupancy is a bivariate normal function of annual temperature and precipitation; and (4) asymmetric limitation (i.e. abiotic factors set abrupt range limits in stressful climates only). Finally, we compared observed climatic niches with the occupancy of similar climates on off‐shore islands as well as west of the Rockies. Results (a) Species' distributions in climatic space do not have strong thresholds, nor are they systematically skewed towards less stressful climates. (b) Occupancy can generally be described by a bivariate normal function of temperature and precipitation, with little or no interaction between the two variables. This model, averaged over all species, accounts for 82% of the spatial variation in the probability of occupancy of a given area. (c) Occupied geographic ranges are typically ringed by unoccupied, but climatically suitable areas. (d) Observed climatic niche positions are largely conserved between regions. Main conclusions We conclude that, despite the complexities of species histories and biologies, to a first approximation most of the variation in their geographic distributions relates to climate, in similar ways for nearly all species.     

Species’ traits as predictors of range shifts under contemporary climate change: A review and meta‐analysis

A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species’ ecological and life‐history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. Despite strong theoretical support for species’ traits as predictors of range shifts, empirical evidence from contemporary range shift studies remains limited in extent and consensus. We conducted the first comprehensive review of species’ traits as predictors of range shifts, collecting results from 51 studies across multiple taxa encompassing over 11,000 species’ responses for 54 assemblages of taxonomically related species occurring together in space. We used studies of assemblages that directly compared geographic distributions sampled in the 20th century prior to climate change with resurveys of distributions after contemporary climate change and then tested whether species traits accounted for heterogeneity in range shifts. We performed a formal meta‐analysis on study‐level effects of body size, fecundity, diet breadth, habitat breadth, and historic range limit as predictors of range shifts for a subset of 21 studies of 26 assemblages with sufficient data. Range shifts were consistent with predictions based on habitat breadth and historic range limit. However, body size, fecundity, and diet breadth showed no significant effect on range shifts across studies, and multiple studies reported significant relationships that contradicted predictions. Current understanding of species’ traits as predictors of range shifts is limited, and standardized study is needed for traits to be valid indicators of vulnerability in assessments of climate change impacts.     

Potential Changes in the Distributions of Western North America Tree and Shrub Taxa under Future Climate Scenarios

Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases are driving significant changes in global climate. To project potential vegetation response to future climate change, this study uses response surfaces to describe the relationship between bioclimatic variables and the distribution of tree and shrub taxa in western North America. The response surfaces illustrate the probability of the occurrence of a taxon at particular points in climate space. Climate space was defined using three bioclimatic variables: mean temperature of the coldest month, growing degree days, and a moisture index. Species distributions were simulated under present climate using observed data (1951–80, 30-year mean) and under future climate (2090–99, 10-year mean) using scenarios generated by three general circulation models—HADCM2, CGCM1, and CSIRO. The scenarios assume a 1% per year compound increase in greenhouse gases and changes in sulfate (SO₄) aerosols based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a scenario. The results indicate that under future climate conditions, potential range changes could be large for many tree and shrub taxa. Shifts in the potential ranges of species are simulated to occur not only northward but in all directions, including southward of the existing ranges of certain species. The simulated potential distributions of some species become increasingly fragmented under the future climate scenarios, while the simulated potential distributions of other species expand. The magnitudes of the simulated range changes imply significant impacts to ecosystems and shifts in patterns of species diversity in western North America. Received 12 May 2000; accepted 20 December 2000.     

Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth

Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree‐ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate‐based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50‐year‐old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree‐ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree‐ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as ?.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site‐specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.     

A trait‐based plant economic framework can help increase the value of reforestation for conservation

While reforestation is gaining momentum to moderate climate change via carbon sequestration, there is also an opportunity to use tree planting to confront declining global biodiversity. Where tree species vary in support of diversity, selecting appropriate species for planting could increase conservation effectiveness. We used a common garden experiment in Borneo using 24 native tree species to examine how variation among tree species in their support of beetle diversity is predicted by plant traits associated with “acquisitive” and “conservative” resource acquisition strategies. We evaluate three hypotheses: (1) beetle communities show fidelity to host identity as indicated by variation in abundance and diversity among tree species, (2) the leaf economic spectrum partially explains this variation as shown by beetle preferences for plant species that are predicted by plant traits, and (3) a small number of selected tree species can capture higher beetle species richness than a random tree species community. We found high variation among tree species in supporting three highly intercorrelated metrics of beetle communities: abundance, richness, and Shannon diversity. Variation in support of beetle communities was predicted by plant traits and varied by plant functional groups; within the dipterocarp family, high beetle diversity was predicted by conservative traits such as high wood density and slow growth, and in non‐dipterocarps by the acquisitive traits of high foliar K and rapid growth. Using species accumulation curves and extrapolation to twice the original sample size, we show that 48 tree species were not enough to reach asymptote levels of beetle richness. Nevertheless, species accumulation curves of the six tree species with the highest richness had steeper slopes and supported 33% higher richness than a random community of tree species. Reforestation projects concerned about conservation can benefit by identifying tree species with a disproportional capacity to support biodiversity based on plant traits.     

Host specificity and geographic range in haematophagous ectoparasites

A negative interspecific correlation between the degree of habitat specialization and the size of a species' geographic range has been documented for several free living groups of organisms, providing support for the niche breadth hypothesis. In contrast, practically nothing is known about the geographic range sizes of parasitic organisms and their determinants. In the context of the niche breadth hypothesis, parasites represent ideal study systems, because of the well documented variation in host specificity among parasite species. Here, we investigated the relationship between host specificity (a measure of niche breadth) and geographic range size among flea species parasitic on small mammals, using data from seven distinct geographical regions. Two measures of host specificity were used: the number of host species used by a flea species, and a measure of the average taxonomic distance between the host species used by a flea; the latter index provides an evolutionary perspective on host specificity. After correcting for phylogenetic influences, and using either of our two measures of host specificity, the degree of host specificity of fleas was negatively correlated with the size of their geographic range in all seven regions studied here, with only one minor exception. Overall, these results provide strong support for the niche breadth hypothesis, although other explanations cannot be ruled out.     

Do ecological differences between taxonomic groups influence the relationship between species’ distributions and climate? A global meta‐analysis using species distribution models

Understanding whether and how ecological traits affect species’ geographic distributions is a fundamental issue that bridges ecology and biogeography. While climate is thought to be the major determinant of species’ distributions, there is considerable variation in the strength of species’ climate–distribution relationships. One potential explanation is that species with relatively low dispersal ability cannot reach all geographic areas where climatic conditions are suitable. We tested the hypothesis that species from different taxonomic groups varied in their climate–distribution relationships because of differences in life history strategies, in particular dispersal ability. We conducted a meta‐analysis by combining the discrimination ability (AUC values) from 4317 species distribution models (SDMs) using fit as an indication of the strength of the species’ climate–distribution relationship. We found significant differences in the strength of species’ climate–distribution relationships across taxonomic groups, however we did not find support for the dispersal hypothesis. Our results suggest that relevant ecological trait variation among broad taxonomic groups may be related to differences in species’ climate–distribution relationships, however which ecological traits are important remains unclear.     

Linking traits to energetics and population dynamics to predict lizard ranges in changing environments

I present a dynamic bioenergetic model that couples individual energetics and population dynamics to predict current lizard ranges and those following climate warming. The model predictions are uniquely based on first principles of morphology, life history, and thermal physiology. I apply the model to five populations of a widespread North American lizard, Sceloporus undulatus, to examine how geographic variation in traits and life histories influences ranges. This geographic variation reflects the potential for species to adapt to environmental change. I then consider the range dynamics of the closely related Sceloporus graciosus. Comparing predicted ranges and actual current ranges reveals how dispersal limitations, species interactions, and habitat requirements influence the occupied portions of thermally suitable ranges. The dynamic model predicts individualistic responses to a uniform 3 degrees C warming but a northward shift in the northern range boundary for all populations and species. In contrast to standard correlative climate envelope models, the extent of the predicted northward shift depends on organism traits and life histories. The results highlight the limitations of correlative models and the need for more dynamic models of species' ranges.     

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate–boreal ecotone: Is tree size,age, competition,or climate response most important?

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO₂ and thereby slow rising CO₂ concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree‐ring records. Yet typical tree‐ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.     

The role of seed predation in the maintenance of the Cross Timbers ecotone of Oklahoma,USA

I investigated how seed predation differed among tree species and among microhabitats across the Cross Timbers and what that variation may tell us about how this ecotone is maintained. The ecotone is located in Oklahoma, USA, between the eastern deciduous forest and tallgrass prairie where seeds of eight common tree species were placed in three microhabitats (oak forest, tallgrass prairie, and sumac shrub/small-tree/grass mix). After nine days in the field, percent seeds remaining were scored for each of the 120 (8 species×3 microhabitats×5 replicates) dishes. I found for both wind-dispersed tree species, (ash, elm) there was significantly more predation in the prairie microsite, with similar small predation levels in the shrub and forest. For two of the three bird-dispersed species (dogwood, hackberry), there was significantly more predation in the prairie and shrub microsites compared to the forest. Red cedar, however, was not taken by predators very much anywhere. Finally, all three mammal-dispersed tree species (two oaks, pecan) showed significantly more predation in the shrub and forest microsites compared to the prairie. Whereas wind- and bird-dispersed species suffered less predation as microsites became more woody and dark, the dominant oaks showed the opposite trend. Consequently, seed predators are not preventing oaks from advancing across this ecotone, but yearly fluctuations in predator population density, especially in the shrub transitional zone, could be helping to maintain it.