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1.
Nicolas Titeux Dirk Maes Mathieu Marmion Miska Luoto Risto K. Heikkinen 《Journal of Biogeography》2009,36(8):1459-1473
Aim To analyse the effect of the inclusion of soil and land‐cover data on the performance of bioclimatic envelope models for the regional‐scale prediction of butterfly (Rhopalocera) and grasshopper (Orthoptera) distributions. Location Temperate Europe (Belgium). Methods Distributional data were extracted from butterfly and grasshopper atlases at a resolution of 5 km for the period 1991–2006 in Belgium. For each group separately, the well‐surveyed squares (n = 366 for butterflies and n = 322 for grasshoppers) were identified using an environmental stratification design and were randomly divided into calibration (70%) and evaluation (30%) datasets. Generalized additive models were applied to the calibration dataset to estimate occurrence probabilities for 63 butterfly and 33 grasshopper species, as a function of: (1) climate, (2) climate and land‐cover, (3) climate and soil, and (4) climate, land‐cover and soil variables. Models were evaluated as: (1) the amount of explained deviance in the calibration dataset, (2) Akaike’s information criterion, and (3) the number of omission and commission errors in the evaluation dataset. Results Information on broad land‐cover classes or predominant soil types led to similar improvements in the performance relative to the climate‐only models for both taxonomic groups. In addition, the joint inclusion of land‐cover and soil variables in the models provided predictions that fitted more closely to the species distributions than the predictions obtained from bioclimatic models incorporating only land‐cover or only soil variables. The combined models exhibited higher discrimination ability between the presence and absence of species in the evaluation dataset. Main conclusions These results draw attention to the importance of soil data for species distribution models at regional scales of analysis. The combined inclusion of land‐cover and soil data in the models makes it possible to identify areas with suitable climatic conditions but unsuitable combinations of vegetation and soil types. While contingent on the species, the results indicate the need to consider soil information in regional‐scale species–climate impact models, particularly when predicting future range shifts of species under climate change. 相似文献
2.
We tested the effect of cultivation on butterfly (Nymphalidae: Charaxes) and beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Cetoniinae) species richness and abundance along a cultivation intensification gradient. Results showed significant differences in species richness and abundance between natural woodlands and cultivated landscapes with larger differences in areas of high cultivation intensity. The results indicate that natural woodland clearing for cultivation purposes has negative impacts on arthropod diversity, a situation more severe in highly intensified cultivated areas. Our results imply that mosaics of different land‐use units, each in a different phase of clearance‐cultivation‐abandonment‐recovery‐clearance cycle could counter the negative effects of cultivation intensity on arthropod diversity. 相似文献
3.
Emily Fitzherbert Toby Gardner Tim R. B. Davenport Tim Caro 《African Journal of Ecology》2006,44(3):353-362
We sampled butterflies in six different habitat types in and around Katavi National Park, a remote reserve consisting primarily of miombo woodland and seasonal lakes in western Tanzania. Blendon traps set for 531 trap days and 143 h of butterfly netting at 35 sites yielded 186 species from five families over a 4‐month period during the wet season. Eight of these species constituted possible range extensions. Butterfly abundance and species richness were low in cultivated habitats but high in open riverine habitats; many butterfly species were found only in seasonally flooded grassland. This study constitutes the first butterfly species inventory from this poorly‐known national park, shows that protection of dry season water sources provides an important conservation service for invertebrates as well as large mammals, and that increased cultivation outside miombo parks can reduce local butterfly diversity. 相似文献
4.
In central Japan, Aokigahara woodland is considered to be one of the most natural areas around Mount Fuji and a core area in the conservation of the biodiversity of Mount Fuji. We chose butterflies as an indicator species of biodiversity and examined six communities in and around the woodland in 2000 using transect counts to examine and search for diversity and rarity hotspots and their associated landscapes. The results showed that butterfly species richness and species diversities H 1/ were significantly higher in forest-edge sites than in forest-interior and/or open-land sites, and variation in the total number of species among these three landscape types was well accounted for by ecologically specialist species, such as landscape specifics, oligovoltines, narrow diet feeders and low-density species. Thus, the species regarded as vulnerable to extinction, including Red List species, were observed more often in forest-edge sites than in forest-interior and/or open-land sites. As a result, in the study area, diversity and rarity hotspots were found in forest-edge landscapes. The reasons why butterfly diversity and rarity hotspots were established in forest-edge landscapes were analyzed and interpreted from several points of view, including disturbance level, landscape elements and plant species richness. From these results, and the fact that some species were confined to forest-interior sites, we conclude that it is very important to conserve and manage forest-edge habitats (considered to be semi-natural) as well as forest-interior habitats (considered to be the most natural) to maintain the diversity of butterfly communities and preserve the various types of threatened species in and around the Aokigahara woodland. 相似文献
5.
Diversity and composition of tropical butterflies along an Afromontane agricultural gradient in the Jimma Highlands,Ethiopia
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《Biotropica》2017,49(3):346-354
Afromontane landscapes are typically characterized by a mosaic of smallholder farms and the biodiversity impacts of these practices will vary in accordance to local management and landscape context. Here, we assess how tropical butterfly diversity is maintained across an agricultural landscape in the Jimma Highlands of Ethiopia. We used transect surveys to sample understory butterfly communities within degraded natural forest, semi‐managed coffee forest (SMCF), exotic timber plantations, open woodland, croplands and pasture. Surveys were conducted in 29 one‐hectare plots and repeated five times between January and June 2013. We found that natural forest supports higher butterfly diversity than all agricultural plots (measured with Hill's numbers). SMCF and timber plantations retain relatively high abundance and diversity, but these metrics drop off sharply in open woodland, cropland and pasture. SMCF and timber plantations share the majority of their species with natural forest and support an equivalent abundance of forest‐dependent species, with no increase in widespread species. There was some incongruence in the responses of families and sub‐families, notably that Lycaenidae are strongly associated with open woodland and pasture. Adult butterflies clearly utilize forested agricultural practices such as SMCF and timber plantations, but species diversity declines steeply with distance from natural forest suggesting that earlier life‐stages may depend on host plants and/or microclimatic conditions that are lost under agricultural management. From a management perspective, the protection of natural forest remains a priority for tropical butterfly conservation, but understanding functioning of the wider landscape mosaic is important as SMCF and timber plantations may act as habitat corridors that facilitate movement between forest fragments. 相似文献
6.
Question: How will changing climate and habitat structure interact to control the species diversity of lichen epiphytes? Location: Scotland. Method: Species richness (=diversity) of the epiphyte lichen community known as Lobarion (named after Lobaria pulmonaria) was quantified for 94 Populus tremula stands across Scotland, and compared in a predictive model to seven climate variables and eight measures of woodland structure. An optimum model was selected and used to project Lobarion diversity over the geographic range of the study area, based on IPCC climate change scenarios and hypothetical shifts in woodland structure. Results: Species diversity of the Lobarion community was best explained by three climate variables: (1) average annual temperature; (2) autumn and winter precipitation; in combination with (3) historic‐woodland extent. Projections indicate a positive effect of predicted climate change on Lobarion diversity, consistent with the physiological traits of cyanobac‐terial lichens comprising the Lobarion. However, the general response to climate is modified significantly by the effect on diversity of historic‐woodland extent. Conclusions: Historic‐woodland extent may exert an important control over local climate, as well as impacting upon the metapopulation dynamics of species in the Lobarion. In particular, a temporal delay in the response of Lobarion species to changed woodland structure is critical to our understanding of future climate change effects. Future Lobarion diversity (e.g. in the 2050s) may depend upon the interaction of contemporary climate (e.g. 2050s climate) and historic habitat structure (e.g. 1950s woodland extent). This is supported by previous observations for an extinction debt amongst lichen epiphytes, but suggests an extension of simple climate‐response models is necessary, before their wider application to lichen epiphyte diversity. 相似文献
7.
Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Michael Lütolf Janine Bolliger Felix Kienast Antoine Guisan 《Biodiversity and Conservation》2009,18(5):1329-1347
Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant
and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this
paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses
of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land
use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century;
(2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered
agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components)
explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM)
is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses
reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices
as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered
agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy
forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong
increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown. 相似文献
8.
Javier Gutiérrez Illán David Gutiérrez Robert J. Wilson 《Journal of Biogeography》2010,37(9):1706-1720
Aim Global patterns of species richness are often considered to depend primarily on climate. We aimed to determine how topography and land cover affect species richness and composition at finer scales. Location Sierra de Guadarrama (central Iberian Peninsula). Methods We sampled the butterfly fauna of 180 locations (89 in 2004, 91 in 2005) at 600–2300 m elevation in a region of 10800 km2. We recorded environmental variables at 100‐m resolution using GIS, and derived generalized linear models for species density (number of species per unit area) and expected richness (number of species standardized to number of individuals) based on variables of topoclimate (elevation and insolation) or land cover (vegetation type, geology and hydrology), or both (combined). We evaluated the models against independent data from the alternative study year. We also tested for differences in species composition among sites and years using constrained ordination (canonical correspondence analysis), and used variation partitioning analyses to quantify the independent and combined roles of topoclimate and land cover. Results Topoclimatic, land cover and combined models were significantly related to observed species density and expected richness. Topoclimatic and combined models outperformed models based on land cover variables, showing a humped elevational diversity gradient. Both topoclimate and land cover made significant contributions to models of species composition. Main conclusions Topoclimatic factors may dominate species richness patterns in regions with pronounced elevational gradients, as long as large areas of natural habitat remain. In contrast, both topoclimate and land cover may have important effects on species composition. Biodiversity conservation in mountainous regions therefore requires protection and management of natural habitats over a wide range of topoclimatic conditions, which may assist in facilitating range shifts and alleviating declines in species richness related to climate change. 相似文献
9.
E. N. Chidumayo 《Journal of Biogeography》2002,29(12):1619-1626
Aim Population pressure and communal land ownership are often perceived as serious threats to forest conservation in savanna woodlands of central and southern Africa. I aimed at testing the hypothesis that the rate of miombo woodland recovery after clearing and re‐growth structure are determined by land tenure and use. Location Miombo woodland under customary, leasehold, forest reserve and national park on ten permanent and temporary sites was studied in central Zambia. Two sites were in mature woodland and eight sites were in re‐growth miombo ranging in age from 1 to 30 years. Methods I enumerated and measured girth at breast height (1.3 m above ground) of trees/stems in sixty‐four 20 × 10 m plots in 1982, 1986 and 2000 at six sites and annually from 1990 to 2001 at four sites to determine stem density and status (live, dead or cut) and wood biomass. A total of 239 trees were cut, wood biomass measured and the data used to develop equations for estimating wood biomass on study plots. Distance between each study site and the nearest human settlement was estimated during each sampling period using aerial photographs, topographical maps and the global positioning system. Results Land tenure was responsible for significant differences in stem density, wood biomass and rate of biomass accumulation in re‐growth following clearing of mature miombo woodland. Although stem density was highest on customary land, wood biomass and accumulation rate were lowest. The highest biomass was on plots in forest reserves, with intermediate values for leasehold and national park. Fire was responsible for tree mortality at all the study sites and its impact was highest at a site in a national park. Sites close to human settlements had the highest density of cut stems but this activity did not significantly reduce wood biomass. Rate of woodland recovery was higher on sites cleared in the 1970s than on sites cleared in the 1990s, irrespective of age of re‐growth. The development of the first, second and third re‐growths following successive woodland clearing in 1972, 1981 and 1990, respectively, was not significantly different, except for stem density which was highest in the second re‐growth. Analysis of interactions between five land tenure and use factors (independent variables) and re‐growth structure revealed that 52% (P=0.0000) of the variation in stem density was because of re‐growth age and decade in which the woodland was cleared while distance to human settlements and age of re‐growth explained 42% (P=0.0000) of the variation in wood biomass. Individually, distance to human settlements explained 25% (P=0.0000) of the variation in wood biomass accumulation rate. Conclusion The results supported the hypothesis that rate of miombo woodland recovery and structure were influenced by land tenure and use. However, analysis of interactions between factors revealed that use related factors (i.e. decade in which woodland was cleared and distance to human settlements) and re‐growth related factors (age and type of re‐growth) were more important than land tenure per se in explaining variation in miombo recovery. The conclusion from these results is that regulation of land use is more important than change in land tenure to the proper management of miombo woodland. 相似文献
10.
Although it is well established that butterfly richness is affected by climate and human factors (e.g. habitat disturbance and degradation) at different spatial scales, the drivers behind these changes vary greatly according to the geographical region and the ecology of the species concerned. It is essential that this variation be understood if trends in diversity are to be predicted with any degree of confidence under a scenario of global change. Here we examine patterns of butterfly species richness among groups differing in degree of habitat specialization, diet breadth and mobility in the north‐west Mediterranean Basin, a European hotspot for this taxon. We analyze a large number of butterfly communities and take into consideration the main potential drivers, that include climatic, geographic and resource variables, landscape structure and human environmental impact at different spatial scales. Our study shows that both climatic and anthropogenic factors play an important role in determining butterfly species richness in the north‐west Mediterranean Basin, but that their relative impact differs between specialist and generalist groups. At lower altitudes, water availability, a product of the interplay between temperature and rainfall, and negative effects of temperature appear as the most determinant factors. Maximum diversity was observed at mid‐altitudes, which reveals the importance from a conservation point of view of Mediterranean mountain ranges. The results suggest serious population declines in specialist species restricted to mountain areas as a result of climate warming in combination with habitat loss caused by the abandonment of grazing and mowing. They also suggest negative trends for generalist species due to an increase in aridity in combination with an increase in intensification of human land use in lowland areas. Such synergies are expected to lead to rapid declines in Mediterranean butterfly populations in the coming years, thereby posing a severe threat for the conservation of European biodiversity. 相似文献
11.
12.
Abstract. A floristic classification of British hedgerows is constructed. Hedges (the woody, structural element) and hedge‐bottoms (the mainly herbaceous ground flora) were analysed separately because different natural and management processes were expected to affect them. The 11 hedge classes varied in size from five to over 500 plots. Over two‐thirds of all hedges were dominated by Crataegus spp. or Primus spinosa. Hedge‐bottoms were more evenly grouped into four classes whose species composition could be related to broad land use/habitat types: intensive arable, rotational/mixed farming, managed grasslands, and woodland. The woodland class was only 12% of the total, and species characteristic of true woodland habitats were uncommon even within that class, so our data do not support the hypothesis of hedgerows acting as‘woodland corridors’for plants. Richness/diversity scores differed markedly between different hedge and hedge‐bottom classes. The richest hedgerows, both in species and inferred habitats, were among the rarer types, while the most common classes (both hedge and hedge‐bottom) were consistently the poorest. Comparison of species composition and diversity in hedges and hedge‐bottoms, and associations between them, all supported the hypothesis that the relative importance of historical, management and ecological effects differed between the two parts of the hedgerow; hedges and hedge‐bottoms should be treated ecologically as largely independent units. The classifications and richness/diversity scores enable easy preliminary assessment of the conservation value of a hedgerow. They also enable individual hedgerows to be placed in a wider (national) context. 相似文献
13.
Greg M. Forcey Wayne E. Thogmartin George M. Linz William J. Bleier Patrick C. McKann 《Journal of Biogeography》2011,38(9):1694-1707
Aim We examined the influences of regional climate and land‐use variables on mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), blue‐winged teal (Anas discors), ruddy duck (Oxyura jamaicensis) and pied‐billed grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) abundances to inform conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Location The US portion of Bird Conservation Region 11 (US‐BCR11, the Prairie Potholes), which encompasses six states within the United States: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. Methods We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS), the National Land Cover Data Set, and the National Climatic Data Center to model the effects of environmental variables on waterbird abundance. We evaluated land‐use covariates at three logarithmically related spatial scales (1000, 10,000 and 100,000 ha), and constructed hierarchical spatial count models a priori using information from published habitat associations. Model fitting was performed using a hierarchical modelling approach within a Bayesian framework. Results Models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset, indicating that the influence of spatial scale was small. Both land‐use and climate variables contributed strongly to predicting waterbird abundance in US‐BCR11. The strongest positive influences on waterbird abundance were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales, herbaceous vegetation and precipitation variables. Other variables that we included in our models did not appear to influence waterbirds in this study. Main conclusions Understanding the relationships of waterbird abundance to climate and land use may allow us to make predictions of future distribution and abundance as environmental factors change. Additionally, results from this study can suggest locations where conservation and management efforts should be focused. 相似文献
14.
Javier Gutiérrez Illán David Gutiérrez Robert J. Wilson 《Global Ecology and Biogeography》2010,19(2):159-173
Aim Models relating species distributions to climate or habitat are widely used to predict the effects of global change on biodiversity. Most such approaches assume that climate governs coarse‐scale species ranges, whereas habitat limits fine‐scale distributions. We tested the influence of topoclimate and land cover on butterfly distributions and abundance in a mountain range, where climate may vary as markedly at a fine scale as land cover. Location Sierra de Guadarrama (Spain, southern Europe) Methods We sampled the butterfly fauna of 180 locations (89 in 2004, 91 in 2005) in a 10,800 km2 region, and derived generalized linear models (GLMs) for species occurrence and abundance based on topoclimatic (elevation and insolation) or habitat (land cover, geology and hydrology) variables sampled at 100‐m resolution using GIS. Models for each year were tested against independent data from the alternate year, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (distribution) or Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rs) (abundance). Results In independent model tests, 74% of occurrence models achieved AUCs of > 0.7, and 85% of abundance models were significantly related to observed abundance. Topoclimatic models outperformed models based purely on land cover in 72% of occurrence models and 66% of abundance models. Including both types of variables often explained most variation in model calibration, but did not significantly improve model cross‐validation relative to topoclimatic models. Hierarchical partitioning analysis confirmed the overriding effect of topoclimatic factors on species distributions, with the exception of several species for which the importance of land cover was confirmed. Main conclusions Topoclimatic factors may dominate fine‐resolution species distributions in mountain ranges where climate conditions vary markedly over short distances and large areas of natural habitat remain. Climate change is likely to be a key driver of species distributions in such systems and could have important effects on biodiversity. However, continued habitat protection may be vital to facilitate range shifts in response to climate change. 相似文献
15.
Question: Which factors determine diversity of native and alien vascular plant species in semi‐natural dry grasslands? Location: Northern limestone Alps to the southern rim of the Bohemian massif in northern Austria. Methods: In 70 randomly chosen dry grassland patches (0.008 ha ‐ 7 ha) we sampled a complete inventory of vascular plant species at each site. We analysed the correlation between species diversity of natives, archaeophytes (pre‐1500 aliens) and neophytes (post‐1500 aliens). We used GLM to study the relationship of species number (natives, neophytes, archaeophytes) to five explanatory variables (altitude, within habitat diversity, habitat diversity of adjacent areas, within land‐use diversity and land‐use in adjacent areas). Orthogonal components of these variables were derived with a PCA and used in the models. We also tested the influence of minimum residence time (MRT) and the covariables origin, mode of introduction and life form on the number of grassland sites with neophytes with analogous GLMs. Results: Native species diversity species was positively correlated with the species diversity of new, but not old invaders. GLM explains 70% of the variance in the number of native species. Patch size explained the largest part of the variation in the number of native species. PCA axes 1 and 3 were significantly related to the number of native species. Axis 1was related to on‐site habitat and land‐use diversity. The GLM of the archaeophyte diversity explains 18% of the variance. Altitude and presence of fields and grassland in the neighbourhood mainly explained archaeophyte species diversity. The GLM of neophyte diversity explains 12% of the variance. The number of neophytes was positively related to that of archaeophytes. Only PCA axis 3, which is mainly influenced by adjacent land‐use types, showed a relationship with neophytes. MRT, mode of introduction and region of origin (but not life form) were significantly related to the number of grassland sites invaded by neophytes, explaining 35% of the variance. Conclusion: Most factors governing native species diversity are not significantly related to alien species diversity. Additional determinants of the local scale diversity of alien species exist such as region of origin and historical factors (MRT, mode of introduction). 相似文献
16.
Does diet breadth control herbivorous insect distribution size? Life history and resource outlets for specialist butterflies 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Although butterfly distributions are known to be positively correlated with the number of larval hostplants used it is not known to what extent larval hostplant number uniquely influences butterfly distributions and to what extent effects are indirect through other variables. This issue is central to understanding the part generalism and specialism in host use play in organism persistence and conservation. Here, we have modelled the links between larval hostplant number and butterfly distributions using data from the UK. The model identifies the key variables that connect number of hostplants used by butterflies and the size of butterfly distributions. Significant correlations between variables give support to the model. Access to more hostplants is shown to affect a number of resource and life history variables impinging on butterfly population abundances and butterfly distributions. Butterfly distributions are largely accounted for (R2>81%) by a set of resource and life history variables linked to numbers of hostplants: biotope occupancy, nectar sources used, utilities (the number of structures used by each life-cycle stage) and hostplant abundance. Application of partial regression demonstrates that the unique contribution of hostplant number to butterfly distributions is relatively small (R2 = 14% to 33%), indicating that host use generalism has a limited direct impact on distributions. The modest correlations linking variables within the model illustrates that specialist phytophage feeders have a number of potential, distinct outlets, via resource and life history variables, to compensate for lack of supplementary larval hosts within their geographical ranges and enabling them to persist. Variables in the model each have considerable independence of action; without this, specialist feeders would have difficulty in expanding their distributions and acquiring new hosts, functionally-linked processes affecting evolutionary dynamics and persistence. We also question the nature of a direct functional link between local population abundance and distributions. Our model suggests a more complex functional relationship with implications for conserving insect herbivores. 相似文献
17.
Yasmine A. Farhat William M. Janousek John P. McCarty Nichollette Rider L. LaReesa Wolfenbarger 《Journal of Insect Conservation》2014,18(2):245-256
The alteration and fragmentation of native tallgrass prairie in the Midwestern United States has created a need to identify other land types with the ability to support grassland butterfly species. This study examines butterfly usage of marginal grasslands, which consist of semi-natural grasslands existing within in a larger agricultural matrix, compared to grasslands managed for conservation of prairie species. Using generalized linear mixed models we analyzed how land purpose (marginal vs. conservation grasslands) affected butterfly abundance. We found grassland butterfly species to be significantly more common on conservation grasslands, whereas generalist species were significantly more common on marginal grasslands. Results of ordination analyses indicated that while many species used both types of habitats, butterfly species assemblages were distinct between habitat types and that edge to interior ratio and the floristic quality index of sites were important habitat characteristics driving this distinction. Within conservation grasslands we examined the relationship between butterfly abundance and the planting diversity used in restoring each site. We found higher diversity restorations hosted more individuals of butterflies considered habitat generalists, as well as species considered to be of conservation concern. 相似文献
18.
José Hernán Sarasola Javier Bustamante Juan José Negro Alejandro Travaini 《Diversity & distributions》2008,14(5):742-753
During recent years, predictive modelling techniques have been increasingly used to identify regional patterns of species spatial occurrence, to explore species–habitat relationships and to aid in biodiversity conservation. In the case of birds, predictive modelling has been mainly applied to the study of species with little variable interannual patterns of spatial occurrence (e.g. year‐round resident species or migratory species in their breeding grounds showing territorial behaviour). We used predictive models to analyse the factors that determine broad‐scale patterns of occurrence and abundance of wintering Swainson's hawks (Buteo swainsoni). This species has been the focus of field monitoring in its wintering ground in Argentina due to massive pesticide poisoning of thousands of individuals during the 1990s, but its unpredictable pattern of spatial distribution and the uncertainty about the current wintering area occupied by hawks led to discontinuing such field monitoring. Data on the presence and abundance of hawks were recorded in 30 × 30 km squares (n = 115) surveyed during three austral summers (2001–03). Sixteen land‐use/land‐cover, topography, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) variables were used as predictors to build generalized additive models (GAMs). Both occurrence and abundance models showed a good predictive ability. Land use, altitude, and NDVI during spring previous to the arrival of hawks to wintering areas were good predictors of the distribution of Swainson's hawks in the Argentine pampas, but only land use and NDVI were entered into the model of abundance of the species in the region. The predictive cartography developed from the models allowed us to identify the current wintering area of Swainson's hawks in the Argentine pampas. The highest occurrence probability and relative abundances for the species were predicted for a broad area of south‐eastern pampas that has been overlooked so far and where neither field research nor conservation efforts aiming to prevent massive mortalities has been established. 相似文献
19.
Geographical location, climate and land use influences on the phenology and numbers of the aphid, Myzus persicae, in Europe 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
N. Cocu R. Harrington M. D. A. Rounsevell S. P. Worner M. Hullé the EXAMINE project participants 《Journal of Biogeography》2005,32(4):615-632
Aim The purpose of this study was to improve understanding of the relationship between the spatial patterns of an important insect pest, the aphid Myzus persicae, and aspects of its environment. The main objectives were to determine the predominant geographical, climatic and land use factors that are linked with the aphid's distribution, to quantify their role in determining that distribution, including their interacting effects and to explore the ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to provide predictive models. Location The study focused on four spatial scales to account for the aphid data base characteristics and available land use data sets: Europe; a broad zone over Europe covering Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Scotland, Sweden and Wales (Regio data base coverage); North‐West Europe (i.e. Belgium, France and the United Kingdom); and England with Wales. Methods Multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to identify the variables in the Geographic location, Climate and Land use groups, that explained significant proportions of the variance in M. persicae total annual numbers and Julian date of first capture. A variance partitioning procedure was used to measure the fraction of the variation that can be explained by each environmental factor and of shared variation between the different factors. Finally, ANNs were employed as an alternative modelling approach for the two largest study areas, i.e. Europe and the Regio data base coverage, to determine whether the relationship between aphid and environmental variables was better described by more complex functions as well as their ability to generalize to new data. Results Land use variables are shown to play a significant role in explaining aphid numbers. The area of agricultural crops, in particular oilseed rape, is positively correlated with M. persicae annual numbers. Among the climatic variables, rainfall is negatively correlated with aphid numbers and temperature is positively correlated. The geographical components also explain a significant part of aphid annual numbers. However, the variance partitioning procedure indicates that while each group has an effect, none is dominant. Aphid first capture is mainly explained by climate where rainfall tends to delay migration and warmer conditions tend to advance it. Climate accounts for the greatest part of the variance when considered separately from the other factors. The geographical and land use components also have a significant effect on first capture at each scale, but their direct contribution is negligible. The ability of the ANN models to generalize to new total numbers and phenological data compared with MLR models was less for Europe (9 and 6% increase in the variance accounted for, respectively) than for the Regio data coverage where an increase of 44% in the variance accounted for was observed. Main conclusions This research supports the hypothesis that climate, land use and geographical location play a role in determining patterns of aphid annual numbers and phenology. The ability of ANN models to predict aphid distribution is improved by the inclusion of temporal land use data. However, identification of the processes involved in such relationships is difficult due to numerous interactions between the environmental factors. 相似文献
20.
Butterfly species richness in the north-west Mediterranean Basin: the role of natural and human-induced factors 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
Aim We developed a model enabling us to evaluate the contribution of both natural and human‐related factors to butterfly species richness in Catalonia, a Mediterranean area that harbours one of the most diverse butterfly faunas in Europe. Location The study was carried out in Catalonia (north‐east Iberian Peninsula), a region of 31,930 km2 lying between the Pyrenees, the Ebro depression and the Mediterranean sea. Methods Data from the Catalan Butterfly Monitoring Scheme were used to assess butterfly species richness from 55 transects spread all over the region. Three groups of environmental variables likely to affect the presence of butterfly species were calculated, above all from geographic information system data: (1) climatology and topography, (2) vegetation structure and (3) human disturbance. Because climatic and topographic variables are expected to be strongly correlated, we first performed a principal component analysis (PCA) to create a summarizing factor that would account for most of the variance within this set of variables. Subsequently, a backward stepwise multiple regression was performed in order to assess the effects of environmental factors on butterfly species richness. Results A total of 131 species were detected in the monitoring transects, representing 75.7% of the butterfly fauna known from Catalonia. Mean species richness per transect and per year was 41.4, although values varied greatly among sites (range: 14–76.8). The final regression model explained more than 80% of the total variance, which indicated a strong association between butterfly species richness and the studied environmental factors. The model revealed the very important contribution of climatic and topographic variables, which were combined into a single factor in the PCA. In contrast to what has been found in other, more northerly countries, species richness was negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with rainfall, except for extreme cold and wet conditions. This may be a consequence of the predictably adverse effects of the Mediterranean summer drought on herbivorous insects, and the fact that the limits of distribution of many butterflies correlate well with climatic variables. Human disturbance (defined as the proportion of urban and agricultural landscape cover in buffer areas of 5 km around the transect sites) was the second most important predictor for species richness. We found that a significant decrease in species numbers was associated with an increase in human pressure, a finding that indicates that not only building development, but also modern‐day agricultural practices are detrimental to the conservation of Mediterranean butterflies. Surprisingly, vegetation variables had an almost negligible effect on butterfly species richness. Main conclusions Our findings strongly indicate that the current motors of global change will have a negative effect on Mediterranean butterfly assemblages. First, changes in land‐use are transforming and fragmenting the landscape into an inhospitable and less permeable matrix for butterflies. Secondly, the negative correlation between species richness and temperature will lead to a predictable loss of diversity over the coming years, as predicted in the most plausible scenarios of climate change. Considering the high butterfly richness characterizing the Mediterranean Basin, this future trend will pose a serious threat to biodiversity. 相似文献