Land use intensification increasingly drives the spatiotemporal patterns of the global human appropriation of net primary production in the last century

Land use has greatly transformed Earth's surface. While spatial reconstructions of how the extent of land cover and land-use types have changed during the last century are available, much less information exists about changes in land-use intensity. In particular, global reconstructions that consistently cover land-use intensity across land-use types and ecosystems are missing. We, therefore, lack understanding of how changes in land-use intensity interfere with the natural processes in land systems. To address this research gap, we map land-cover and land-use intensity changes between 1910 and 2010 for 9 points in time. We rely on the indicator framework of human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) to quantify and map land-use-induced alterations of the carbon flows in ecosystems. We find that, while at the global aggregate level HANPP growth slowed down during the century, the spatial dynamics of changes in HANPP were increasing, with the highest change rates observed in the most recent past. Across all biomes, the importance of changes in land-use areas has declined, with the exception of the tropical biomes. In contrast, increases in land-use intensity became the most important driver of HANPP across all biomes and settings. We conducted uncertainty analyses by modulating input data and assumptions, which indicate that the spatial patterns of land use and potential net primary production are the most critical factors, while spatial allocation rules and uncertainties in overall harvest values play a smaller role. Highlighting the increasing role of land-use intensity compared to changes in the areal extent of land uses, our study supports calls for better integration of the intensity dimension into global analyses and models. On top of that, we provide important empirical input for further analyses of the sustainability of the global land system.     

Integrating Urbanization into Landscape-level Ecological Assessments

Economists and ecologists are often asked to collaborate on landscape-level analyses designed to jointly assess economic and ecological conditions resulting from environmental policy scenarios. This trend toward multidisciplinary projects, coupled with the growing use of geographic information systems, has led to the development of spatially explicit models that can be used to examine and project land-use change. Although spatial land-use models are still evolving, most published efforts have modeled the conversion of nonurban land to urban uses as a function of explanatory variables based on population density and the spatial proximity of land to roads, markets, and population centers. In this paper, we use a gravity model to describe the urbanization potential of forest and agricultural land as a combination of population and proximity. We develop an empirical model that describes the probability that forests and agricultural land in western Oregon and western Washington were transformed to residential, commercial, or industrial uses over a 30-year period as a function of urbanization potential, other socioeconomic factors, and geographic and physical land characteristics. Land-use data were provided by the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program. We use this empirical model to generate geographic information system maps depicting the probability of future land-use change that can be integrated with landscape-level ecological models developed for western Oregon's Coast Range. Received 14 April 2000; accepted 17 August 2000.     

赣南地区土地利用格局及生态系统服务价值的时空演变

江西省的赣南地区是典型的南方山地丘陵区,属于赣江流域重要的生态屏障区,生态保护的意义重大。以赣南为研究区域,基于1990—2015年间的6期遥感影像,利用遥感、地理信息技术和空间统计的方法,计算了该区域土地利用动态度,对不同生态用地所提供的生态系统服务价值进行评估,分析了生态系统服务价值时空差异的驱动因素,并将人均GDP、人口密度和城市化率3个因素与生态系统服务价值进行空间相关性分析。结果表明:(1)1990—2015年间,赣南地区综合土地利用动态度持续上升,各用地类型的综合土地利用动态度从0.06上升到0.13。(2)1990—2015年间赣南地区共减少生态系统服务价值20.42×10~8元,处于下降趋势,其中森林的生态系统服务价值损失最大。研究区调节服务价值最高,其供给服务较低,该地区森林覆盖率高,耕地分散是造成该结果的主要原因。(3)人均GDP、人口密度和城市化率3个因素是生态系统服务价值变化的主要驱动因素且与生态系统服务价值的局部空间相关性高度一致。城市化率越高,生态系统服务价值越低,并形成局部低-高型和高-高型集聚分布。本研究为合理布局和保护我国南方丘陵地区的生态用地,发挥赣南地区的生态屏障作用提供了理论依据和决策支持。     

基于土地利用变化的祁连山地区生态系统服务价值演化分析

祁连山生态环境保护是建设我国西部生态安全屏障的关键环节,而核算祁连山生态系统服务价值是制定合理有效的生态环境保护措施的有力依据。然而受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,祁连山地区生态环境问题依旧突出,亟需对该地区生态系统服务价值开展研究以服务后期生态环境建设。基于此目的,使用1990-2020年祁连山地区土地利用数据,运用土地利用动态度、土地利用转移矩阵揭示该地区土地利用变化规律。并使用生态系统服务价值评估模型测算了祁连山地区生态系统服务价值,探究了其动态变化过程,并明确了各土地利用类型与生态系统服务价值变化之间的内在联系。结果表明:(1)1990-2020年,草地和荒漠是祁连山地区最主要的土地利用类型,单一土地利用动态度分别为水域 > 湿地 > 耕地 > 荒漠 > 草地 > 林地。草地和耕地以及草地和荒漠相互转化成为该地区最主要的土地利用变化特征;(2)祁连山地区生态系统服务价值呈持续增加趋势,由1990年的7231.36亿元增加至2020年的7836.07亿元,在空间上呈现出东高西低的变化趋势。生态系统服务价值构成主体主要为水域、草地和林地,单项生态系统服务价值以水文调节和气候调节为主,反映了调节服务是祁连山地区生态系统的主要功能;(3)水域、草地和湿地这3种土地利用类型是近30年祁连山地区生态系统服务价值变化的主要贡献因子。1990-2020年,祁连山地区生态系统服务价值对土地利用的敏感性总体呈增加态势(1.48%-7.91%),土地利用变化对该地区生态系统服务价值的影响逐步增强。系统揭示了过去30年祁连山地区生态系统服务价值的演变及其与土地利用变化的内在联系,重点阐释了水域、草地、林地和湿地对该地区生态系统服务价值和生态环境保护的重要性,可为祁连山地区生态产品价值实现及生态保护管理等提供基础科技支撑。     

Impact of short-term rainfall fluctuation on interannual land cover change in sub-Saharan Africa

Aim Interannual land cover change plays a significant role in food security, ecosystem processes, and regional and global climate modelling. Measuring the magnitude and location and understanding the driving factors of interannual land cover change are therefore of utmost importance to improve our understanding and prediction of these impacts and to better differentiate between natural and human causes of land cover change. Despite advances in quantifying the magnitude of land cover change, the interpretation of the observed land cover change in terms of climatic, ecological and anthropogenic processes still remains a complex issue. In this paper, we map land cover change across sub‐Saharan Africa and examine the influences of rainfall fluctuations on interannual change. Location The analysis was applied to sub‐Saharan Africa. Methods Ten‐day rainfall estimates (RFE) obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) were used to extract information on inter and intra‐annual rainfall fluctuations. The magnitude of land cover change was quantified based on the multitemporal change vector method measuring year‐to‐year differences in bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) corrected 16‐day enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro‐radiometer (MODIS). Statistical models were used to estimate the relationship between short‐term rainfall variability and the magnitude of land cover change. The analysis was stratified first by physiognomic vegetation type and second by chorological data on species distribution to gain insights into spatial variations in response to short‐term rainfall fluctuations. Results The magnitude of land cover change was significantly related to rainfall variability at the 5% level. Stratification considerably strengthened the relationship between the magnitude of change and rainfall variability. Explanatory power of the models ranged from R² = 0.22 for the unstratified model to 0.40–0.96 for the individual models stratified by patterns of species distribution. The total variability explained by the combined models including the influence of rainfall and differences in vegetation response ranged from 22% for the model not stratified by vegetation to 76% when stratified by chorological data. Main conclusions Using this methodology, we were able to measure the contribution of natural variation in precipitation to land cover change. Several ecosystems across sub‐Saharan Africa are highly sensitive to short‐term rainfall variability.     

土地利用变化对区域碳源汇的影响研究进展

土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳循环有着重要的影响,既可能成为碳源,也可能是碳汇。在国内外相关研究的基础上,综述了土地利用变化对全球及区域尺度上森林、草地和农业生态系统碳循环的影响。全球范围内,森林砍伐后向草地和农田的转化发挥碳源的作用,在毁林碳排放中占主导地位,其中热带地区森林转变为农田和草场的碳排放均高于温带和北方森林。另一方面,土地利用变化可促进森林的碳贮存,如退耕还林、改善森林管理等。各区域森林生态系统通过土地利用变化贮存碳的潜力存在显著差别,热带湿润和半湿润地区具有较大的碳汇潜力,而干旱地区减少碳排放的空间相对较少。开垦活动是影响草地生态系统碳储存最主要的人类活动,草地转变为农田伴随着土壤碳的流失。森林或草场转变为农田的过程伴随着植被和土壤碳储量的减少,生态系统碳储量降低,因此它是一个碳排放的过程。伴随着城市的扩张,农田向建设用地的转化也是一个碳排放的过程。当前评估土地利用变化影响的研究方法主要有遥感观测和遥感模型、统计估算、生态系统模型以及土地利用与生态系统模型的耦合。研究方法得到不断地完善和改进的同时,还存在着一些不确定性,因此需要建立统一的观测统计方法,降低数据中的不确定性;完善土地利用与生态系统模型的耦合研究;建立多尺度土地利用变化及生态系统综合技术方法体系;开展碳减排目标下土地利用最优化布局研究。     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

青藏高原土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值影响的多情景模拟

青藏高原具有突出的生态服务价值,但气候多变、环境脆弱的基底,使其易受人类活动的干扰。本文基于土地利用数据和改进当量因子法,定量分析1992—2015年青藏高原土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值时空分布影响,并结合CA-Markov模型模拟探讨自然发展和生态保护情景下土地利用与生态系统服务价值的相互关系。结果表明:1992—2015年青藏高原土地利用结构稳定,以草地为主,林地、裸地为辅,生态系统服务价值总体呈增长趋势,草地、水体和林地是青藏高原生态价值的稳定供应者;青藏高原生态系统服务价值的空间分布极不均衡,不同气候区分布具有空间异质性,冷点区集中分布在青藏高原西北部干旱气候区和东南部湿润气候区,热点区集中于中部湿润和半湿润气候区;6000 m海拔是青藏高原生态系统服务价值的趋势变化节点;生态保护情景下的土地利用变化比自然发展情景下的更加均衡,生态系统服务价值总体增加,生态环境向优发展。     

Integrating the spatial proximity effect into the assessment of changes in ecosystem services for biodiversity conservation

The assessment of the value of ecosystem services is a valuable tool for biodiversity conservation that can facilitate better environmental policy decision-making and land management, and can help land managers develop interventions to compensate for biodiversity loss at the patch level. Previous studies have suggested that it is appropriate to assess the value of biodiversity for conservation planning by considering both the condition of the landscape and the spatial configuration of adjacent land uses that can be reflected as a proximity effect. This research examines the influence of spatial proximity on biodiversity conservation from the ecosystem service perspective based on the assumption that the variation in the proximity effect caused by land cover change has positive or negative impacts on ecological services. Three factors related to the spatial characteristics of the landscape were considered in this approach: the relative artificiality of the land cover types, the distance decay effect of patches and the impact of one land cover type on others. The proximity effect change (PE_C) parameter reflected the relationship between the spatial proximity effect and biodiversity conservation. The results of a quantitative and spatial comparative analysis of the proposed method and the conventional method in Yingkou for the periods of 2000–2005 and 2005–2010 showed that the former can account for the temporal and spatial changes in ecosystem services for biodiversity conservation that were caused by patch-level changes as well as the interaction between the altered and adjacent patches from a spatial perspective. The metric can also identify the most critical areas for biodiversity protection and inform the efficient allocation of limited land resources for nature conservation to maximize the benefit to biodiversity by guiding the process of land-use change, particularly urbanization and agriculture. Future studies should focus on the other important factors that are applicable to the assessment of the value of biodiversity conservation in socio-ecological systems, where society and nature are mutually capable of fulfilling their roles.     

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services--flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban 'sprawl' will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the 'densification' urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization.     

Competition for land

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years.Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future.In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future.     

A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified.     

Assessing ecosystem threats from global and regional change: hierarchical modeling of risk to sagebrush ecosystems from climate change, land use and invasive species in Nevada, USA

Global change poses significant challenges for ecosystem conservation. At regional scales, climate change may lead to extensive shifts in species distributions and widespread extirpations or extinctions. At landscape scales, land use and invasive species disrupt ecosystem function and reduce species richness. However, a lack of spatially explicit models of risk to ecosystems makes it difficult for science to inform conservation planning and land management. Here, I model risk to sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the state of Nevada, USA from climate change, land use/land cover change, and species invasion. Risk from climate change is based on an ensemble of 10 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) projections applied to two bioclimatic envelope models (Mahalanobis distance and Maxent). Risk from land use is based on the distribution of roads, agriculture, and powerlines, and on the spatial relationships between land use and probability of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in Nevada. Risk from land cover change is based on probability and extent of pinyon-juniper ( Pinus monophylla; Juniperus spp.) woodland expansion. Climate change is most likely to negatively impact sagebrush ecosystems at the edges of its current range, particularly in southern Nevada, southern Utah, and eastern Washington. Risk from land use and woodland expansion is pervasive throughout Nevada, while cheatgrass invasion is most problematic in the northern part of the state. Cumulatively, these changes pose major challenges for conservation of sagebrush and sagebrush obligate species. This type of comprehensive assessment of ecosystem risk provides managers with spatially explicit tools important for conservation planning.     

鄱阳湖生态经济区生态系统服务价值预测与驱动力

鄱阳湖生态经济区是我国第一个上升到国家战略的生态经济区。利用鄱阳湖生态经济区2004、2008、2012、2016年的MODIS数据,获得4个对应期的土地利用/覆盖数据,参照修订的单位面积生态系统服务价值当量表与灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测了2016-2024年(间隔2 a)的生态系统服务价值数据,并对引起生态服系统务价值变化的驱动力进行了分析。结果表明,鄱阳湖生态经济区在2004-2016年间,草地、建设用地和未利用地面积增加,耕地、林地、水域面积减少,但2016-2024年的预测值变化率仅为-0.17%,表明该研究区生态系统服务价值即将进入一个相对稳定的状态;驱动力分析表明,人为综合干扰在空间分布上以中等影响强度干扰为主,城镇化率是区域总生态系统服务价值降低的首要驱动力,其次分别为非农业人口、人口密度、第一产业GDP、第二产业GDP、固定资产投资额、总GDP及第三产业GDP。建议加强土地利用规划与调控,控制城镇化建设用地扩展,调整产业结构、降低污染,促进鄱阳湖生态经济区总生态系统服务价值的提升。     

Pollination and other ecosystem services produced by mobile organisms: a conceptual framework for the effects of land-use change

Many ecosystem services are delivered by organisms that depend on habitats that are segregated spatially or temporally from the location where services are provided. Management of mobile organisms contributing to ecosystem services requires consideration not only of the local scale where services are delivered, but also the distribution of resources at the landscape scale, and the foraging ranges and dispersal movements of the mobile agents. We develop a conceptual model for exploring how one such mobile-agent-based ecosystem service (MABES), pollination, is affected by land-use change, and then generalize the model to other MABES. The model includes interactions and feedbacks among policies affecting land use, market forces and the biology of the organisms involved. Animal-mediated pollination contributes to the production of goods of value to humans such as crops; it also bolsters reproduction of wild plants on which other services or service-providing organisms depend. About one-third of crop production depends on animal pollinators, while 60–90% of plant species require an animal pollinator. The sensitivity of mobile organisms to ecological factors that operate across spatial scales makes the services provided by a given community of mobile agents highly contextual. Services vary, depending on the spatial and temporal distribution of resources surrounding the site, and on biotic interactions occurring locally, such as competition among pollinators for resources, and among plants for pollinators. The value of the resulting goods or services may feed back via market-based forces to influence land-use policies, which in turn influence land management practices that alter local habitat conditions and landscape structure. Developing conceptual models for MABES aids in identifying knowledge gaps, determining research priorities, and targeting interventions that can be applied in an adaptive management context.     

陇中黄土丘陵区土地利用强度-生态系统服务-人类福祉时空关系研究——以安定区为例

基于土地利用和社会统计数据,构建了"土地利用强度-生态系统服务-人类福祉"多尺度分析框架,从县区和乡镇尺度探讨了定西市安定区1990—2015年土地利用强度-生态系统服务-人类福祉的时空权衡/协同关系。结果表明:1990—2015年安定区土地利用强度-生态系统服务-人类福祉关系变化存在区域整体相似性和乡镇局部差异性;土地利用强度的增加,提高了供给服务和生产资料供给福祉,但弱化了调节和支持服务;供给与支持服务权衡主要集中于安定区北部和西南部。该区生态系统服务间的权衡程度较高,不利于生态系统服务保育和居民福祉的持续提升。区域的脱贫致富因立足于提高居民福祉,退耕还林还草、发展特色高效产业、劳务输出等是实现该区社会生态系统的经济收益与生态效益共赢的有效途径。     

Bird community responses to afforested eucalyptus plantations in the Argentine pampas

Land-use change driven by human population growth and economic activity will continue to impact both natural habitats and land currently being used for food, fiber, and fuel production. The effects of this conversion on economically important ecological services will in large part depend on how native biodiversity responds to these changes. We investigated how agriculture-related land use change influences the avian community in northeastern Argentina by examining common agricultural land uses (pasture/annual crops, young and mature large-scale eucalyptus plantations, mixed-use farms with citrus, blueberry and small stands of eucalyptus) and remnant native espinal savannas. In this region, afforested eucalyptus plantations represent a new land-use change from the land cover of pasture with intermixed annual crops that has dominated the region. In this mosaic, we used point counts to assess how avian diversity and community structure differed between land uses. Bird species richness was lowest in older plantations and highest in the espinal savanna, with the other land uses having intermediate richness. Abundance trends followed the same pattern, with low overall abundance in the plantations, intermediate levels for pasture/annual crops, and highest abundance in the espinal. Distinct bird community assemblages were strongly associated with each land use, and between young and mature eucalyptus stands. Birds can be useful indicators for biodiversity as a whole, and the depopulated and depauperate avian community within the eucalyptus plantations will likely lead to reduced provision of many ecosystem services in this region if the spatial extent of plantations continues to expand.     

Forest structure and biomass in post-agricultural forests: Lessons learned with new spatial tools

Questions: With calls for afforestation to sequester carbon due to climate change, agricultural land will be converted to forests in the near future. Little is known about how the ecosystem services of reforested landscapes with an agricultural land-use history will differ from reference forests. Our objectives were to (i) test the hypothesis that forests with a history of agricultural land use can provide the same carbon storage and biomass ecosystem services as adjacent reference forests, given some recovery time; (ii) explore whether there is a lag in the recovery of forest community composition due to prior agricultural land use; and (iii) demonstrate how remote-sensing methods can improve our understanding of land-use legacies at large spatial scales. Location: Finger Lakes National Forest, NY, USA. Methods: Using historic air photos, landscape-scale lidar, and field surveys, we compared differences in biomass storage, forest structure, and vegetation communities between reference forests and post-agricultural forests at different stages of regeneration in the Finger Lakes National Forest, New York, USA. We also used lidar to create a spatial model of biomass across the landscape to analyze the spatial distribution of biomass across our study area. Results: We found biomass and forest structure in post-agricultural forests generally recovered to levels typical of reference forests within 50 years of abandonment. Conversely, we found the composition of woody and herbaceous communities still varied between reference and post-agricultural forests after 50 years of abandonment. Conclusions: Collectively our results indicate afforestation efforts can be effective for carbon sequestration at early stages of forest succession. Our spatial model of biomass indicated that biomass levels can be low in forests with extensive edge. Further research is needed to understand how contemporary landscape structure interacts with legacy effects of agriculture to affect biomass and other ecosystem services.     

长三角地区土地利用时空变化对生态系统服务价值的影响

基于1980—2010年的土地利用数据,估算了各种土地利用类型的生态系统服务价值,分析了长三角30年来生态系统服务价值的时空动态及其对土地利用变化的响应。结果表明,1980—2010年,长三角建设用地面积变化最大,为446.1%,未利用地、耕地、草原、林地、水域的变化分别为285.9%、-31.5%、-76.2%、-5.4%、42.9%;1980—2010年,长三角地区的总生态系统服务价值减少了4.40%,水源涵养、休闲娱乐、废物处理生态系统服务功能价值上升;生态系统服务价值极低区域的面积增加且分布于城市扩张区域,生态系统服务价值中等区域逐年下降且被生态系统服务价值低区域所替代,高生态系统服务价值区域处于增加的趋势而极高区域基本维持不变;常州、湖州、嘉兴、南京、泰州的生态系统服务价值逐年增加,而其他城市的则处于下降趋势。