An assessment of direct and indirect effects of climate change for populations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly (Parnassius smintheus Doubleday)

Abstract Climate change is occurring and insects are responding. Current challenges for ecologists and managers are predicting how organisms will respond to continuing climate change and determining how to mitigate potential negative effects. In contrast to broad scale predictions for climate change involving the distribution of species, in this article we highlight the many ways in which local populations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly (Parnassius smintheus Doubleday) are predicted to respond to climate change. Using experimental and observational data collected over the past 15 years, we detail both direct and indirect effects. In addition, we identify limitations in our knowledge restricting the ability to predict how populations will respond to climate change. Some changes, such as warmer winter temperatures, may have beneficial effects; however, most of the effects of climate change will be detrimental. Variability in snow cover during the overwintering period and habitat loss due to forest encroachment have the largest potential negative effects.     

Range shifting on a fragmented landscape

Projected responses of species' to climate change have so far included few of the factors that are important determinants of species' distributions within its range. In this paper we utilise a spatially explicit cellular lattice, colonisation–extinction model to investigate the effect of habitat loss, fragmentation and species characteristics on range shifting in response to climate change. Contrary to the predictions of patch occupancy in static climate models we show that fragmentation can have a positive effect on species survival when species have high colonisation rates. For species with low colonisation rates aggregative behaviours prevent success on fragmented landscapes at high levels of habitat loss, and range shifting is more successfully achieved where habitat is correlated. At levels of habitat loss near the extinction threshold, less fragmented landscapes can facilitate range shifting even for the best colonisers. We discuss how imposing a climate window may reduce percolation routes and have implications for the area of usable habitat at any given level of habitat availability. We demonstrate the importance of landscape structure for range shifting dynamics and argue that management of reserve networks needs to consider the requirements of species with different life history characteristics.     

Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.     

Climate and land-use interactively shape butterfly diversity in tropical rainforest and savanna ecosystems of southwestern China

Human-induced habitat conversion and degradation, along with accelerating climatic change, have resulted in considerable global biodiversity loss. Nevertheless, how local ecological assemblages respond to the interplay between climate and land-use change remains poorly understood. Here, we examined the effects of climate and land-use interactions on butterfly diversity in different ecosystems of southwestern China. Specifically, we investigated variation in the alpha and beta diversities of butterflies in different landscapes along human-modified and climate gradients. We found that increasing land-use intensity not only caused a dramatic decrease in butterfly alpha diversity but also significantly simplified butterfly species composition in tropical rainforest and savanna ecosystems. These findings suggest that habitat modification by agricultural activities increases the importance of deterministic processes and leads to biotic homogenization. The land-use intensity model best explained species richness variation in the tropical rainforest, whereas the climate and land-use intensity interaction model best explained species richness variation in the savanna. These results indicate that climate modulates the effects of land-use intensity on butterfly alpha diversity in the savanna ecosystem. We also found that the response of species composition to climate varied between sites: specifically, species composition was strongly correlated with climatic distance in the tropical rainforest but not in the savanna. Taken together, our long-term butterfly monitoring data reveal that interactions between human-modified habitat change and climate change have shaped butterfly diversity in tropical rainforest and savanna. These findings also have important implications for biodiversity conservation under the current era of rapid human-induced habitat loss and climate change.     

Good‐bye to tropical alpine plant giants under warmer climates? Loss of range and genetic diversity in Lobelia rhynchopetalum

The main aim of this paper is to address consequences of climate warming on loss of habitat and genetic diversity in the enigmatic tropical alpine giant rosette plants using the Ethiopian endemic Lobelia rhynchopetalum as a model. We modeled the habitat suitability of L. rhynchopetalum and assessed how its range is affected under two climate models and four emission scenarios. We used three statistical algorithms calibrated to represent two different complexity levels of the response. We analyzed genetic diversity using amplified fragment length polymorphisms and assessed the impact of the projected range loss. Under all model and scenario combinations and consistent across algorithms and complexity levels, this afro‐alpine flagship species faces massive range reduction. Only 3.4% of its habitat seems to remain suitable on average by 2,080, resulting in loss of 82% (CI 75%–87%) of its genetic diversity. The remaining suitable habitat is projected to be fragmented among and reduced to four mountain peaks, further deteriorating the probability of long‐term sustainability of viable populations. Because of the similar morphological and physiological traits developed through convergent evolution by tropical alpine giant rosette plants in response to diurnal freeze‐thaw cycles, they most likely respond to climate change in a similar way as our study species. We conclude that specialized high‐alpine giant rosette plants, such as L. rhynchopetalum, are likely to face very high risk of extinction following climate warming.     

Global change and the distributional dynamics of migratory bird populations wintering in Central America

Understanding the susceptibility of highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds to global change requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non‐breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where habitat loss has been associated with population declines. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We estimate species’ distributional dynamics across the annual cycle, which we use to determine how species are currently associated with public protected areas and projected changes in climate and land‐use. The effects of global change on the non‐breeding grounds is characterized by decreasing precipitation, especially during the summer, and the conversion of forest to cropland, grassland, or peri‐urban. The effects of global change on the breeding grounds are characterized by increasing winter precipitation, higher temperatures, and the conversion of forest to peri‐urban. During spring and autumn migration, species are projected to encounter higher temperatures, forests that have been converted to peri‐urban, and increased precipitation during spring migration. Based on current distributional dynamics, susceptibility to global change is characterized by the loss of forested habitats on the non‐breeding grounds, warming temperatures during migration and on the breeding grounds, and declining summer rainfall on the non‐breeding grounds. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent on the non‐breeding grounds, suggesting that management opportunities currently exist to mitigate near‐term non‐breeding habitat losses. These efforts would affect more individuals of more species during a longer period of the annual cycle, which may create additional opportunities for species to respond to changes in habitat or phenology that are likely to develop under climate change.     

Climate envelope, life history traits and the resilience of birds facing global change

Few studies have examined how life history traits and the climate envelope influence the ability of species to respond to climate change and habitat degradation. In this study, we test whether 18 species-specific variables, related to the climate envelope, ecological envelope and life history, could predict recent population trends (over 17 years) of 71 common breeding bird species in France. Habitat specialists were declining at a much higher rate than generalists, a sign that habitat quality is decreasing globally. The lower the thermal maximum (temperature at the hot edge of the climate envelope), the more negative are the population trends and the less tolerant these species are climate warming, regardless of the thermal range over which these species occur. The life history trait 'the number of broods per year' was positively related to recent trends, suggesting that single-brooded species might be more sensitive to advances in food peak due to climate change, as it increases the risk of mistiming their single-breeding event. Annual fecundity explained long-term declines, as it is a good proxy for most other demographic rates, with shorter-lived species being more sensitive to global change: individuals of species with higher fecundity might have too short a life to learn to adapt to directional changes in their environment. Finally, there was evidence that natal dispersal was a predictor of recent trends, with species with high natal dispersal experiencing smaller population declines than species with low natal dispersal. This is expected if the higher the natal dispersal, the larger the ability to shift spatially when facing changes in local habitat or climate, in order to track optimal conditions and adapt to global change. Identifying decline-promoting factors allow us to infer mechanisms responsible for observed declines in wild bird populations facing global change, and by doing so allow for a more pre-emptive approach to conservation planning.     

Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change

Mounting evidence shows that organisms have already begun to respond to global climate change. Advances in our knowledge of how climate shapes species distributional patterns has helped us better understand the response of birds to climate change. However, the distribution of birds across the landscape is also driven by biotic and abiotic components, including habitat characteristics. We therefore developed statistical models of 147 bird species distributions in the eastern United States, using climate, elevation, and the distributions of 39 tree species to predict contemporary bird distributions. We used randomForest, a robust regression‐based decision tree ensemble method to predict contemporary bird distributions. These models were then projected onto three models of climate change under high and low emission scenarios for both climate and the projected change in suitable habitat for the 39 tree species. The resulting bird species models indicated that breeding habitat will decrease by at least 10% for 61–79 species (depending on model and emissions scenario) and increase by at least 10% for 38–52 species in the eastern United States. Alternatively, running the species models using only climate/elevation (omitting tree species), we found that the predictive power of these models was significantly reduced (p<0.001). When these climate/elevation‐only models were projected onto the climate change scenarios, the change in suitable habitat was more extreme in 60% of the species. In the end, the strong associations with vegetation tempers a climate/elevation‐only response to climate change and indicates that refugia of suitable habitat may persist for these bird species in the eastern US, even after the redistribution of tree species. These results suggest the importance of interacting biotic processes and that further fine‐scale research exploring how climate change may disrupt species specific requirements is needed.     

Critical thresholds associated with habitat loss: a review of the concepts, evidence, and applications

A major conservation concern is whether population size and other ecological variables change linearly with habitat loss, or whether they suddenly decline more rapidly below a “critical threshold” level of habitat. The most commonly discussed explanation for critical threshold responses to habitat loss focus on habitat configuration. As habitat loss progresses, the remaining habitat is increasingly fragmented or the fragments are increasingly isolated, which may compound the effects of habitat loss. In this review we also explore other possible explanations for apparently nonlinear relationships between habitat loss and ecological responses, including Allee effects and time lags, and point out that some ecological variables will inherently respond nonlinearly to habitat loss even in the absence of compounding factors. In the literature, both linear and nonlinear ecological responses to habitat loss are evident among simulation and empirical studies, although the presence and value of critical thresholds is influenced by characteristics of the species (e.g. dispersal, reproduction, area/edge sensitivity) and landscape (e.g. fragmentation, matrix quality, rate of change). With enough empirical support, such trends could be useful for making important predictions about species' responses to habitat loss, to guide future research on the underlying causes of critical thresholds, and to make better informed management decisions. Some have seen critical thresholds as a means of identifying conservation targets for habitat retention. We argue that in many cases this may be misguided, and that the meaning (and utility) of a critical threshold must be interpreted carefully and in relation to the response variable and management goal. Despite recent interest in critical threshold responses to habitat loss, most studies have not used any formal statistical methods to identify their presence or value. Methods that have been used include model comparisons using Akaike information criterion (AIC) or t‐tests, and significance testing for changes in slope or for polynomial effects. The judicious use of statistics to help determine the shape of ecological relationships would permit greater objectivity and more comparability among studies.     

Ancient woodland indicators signal the climate change risk for dispersal-limited species

The climate change risk to biodiversity operates alongside a range of anthropogenic pressures. These include habitat loss and fragmentation, which may prevent species from migrating between isolated habitat patches in order to track their suitable climate space. Predictive modelling has advanced in scope and complexity to integrate: (i) projected shifts in climate suitability, with (ii) spatial patterns of landscape habitat quality and rates of dispersal. This improved ecological realism is suited to data-rich model species, though its broader generalisation comes with accumulated uncertainties, e.g. incomplete knowledge of species response to variable habitat quality, parameterisation of dispersal kernels etc. This study adopts ancient woodland indicator species (lichen epiphytes) as a guild that couples relative simplicity with biological rigour. Subjectively-assigned indicator species were statistically tested against a binary habitat map of woodlands of known continuity (>250 yr), and bioclimatic models were used to demonstrate trends in their increased/decreased environmental suitability under conditions of ‘no dispersal’. Given the expectation of rapid climate change on ecological time-scales, no dispersal for ancient woodland indicators becomes a plausible assumption. The risk to ancient woodland indicators is spatially structured (greater in a relative continental compared to an oceanic climatic zone), though regional differences are weakened by significant variation (within regions) in woodland extent. As a corollary, ancient woodland indicators that are sensitive to projected climate change scenarios may be excellent targets for monitoring climate change impacts for biodiversity at a site-scale, including the outcome of strategic habitat management (climate change adaptation) designed to offset risk for dispersal-limited species.     

The impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on genetic drift and fixation time

In this study, a simple genetic model is integrated with an established method from landscape ecology to investigate the effect of habitat geometry and availability on genetic drift. Previous ecological modelling has identified a sharp threshold in habitat availability for species' persistence, beyond which the species rapidly becomes extinct. This study demonstrates the existence of a similar threshold for fixation time of selectively neutral genotypes by genetic drift, the location of which is determined by habitat shape and spatial correlation of habitat loss. Time to fixation is greater for habitats if they are long and thin rather than square. Despite reductions in population size due to habitat loss, fixation time remains relatively constant until a pre-threshold value, beyond which there is often a substantial increase in time to fixation. Further habitat loss results in the percolation threshold being reached and beyond this point the time to fixation decreases very rapidly. This study reveals a complex relationship between habitat availability, habitat geometry and the process of genetic drift. Possible implications of our results for conservation are discussed. Further work is required to improve our understanding of the interaction between evolutionary, ecological and landscape processes.     

Local adaptation and the evolution of species’ ranges under climate change

The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species’ equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention.     

Temperature‐related shifts in butterfly phenology depend on the habitat

Many species are becoming active earlier in the season as the climate becomes warmer. In parallel to phenological responses to climate change, many species have also been affected by habitat changes due to anthropogenic land use. As habitat type can directly affect microclimatic conditions, concurrent changes in climate and habitat could have interacting effects on the phenology of species. Temperature‐related shifts in phenology, however, have mostly been studied independent of habitat types. Here, I used long‐term data from a highly standardized monitoring program with 519 transects to study how phenology of butterflies is affected by ambient temperature and habitat type. I compared forests, agricultural areas and settlements, reflecting three major land use forms, and considered butterfly species that were observed in all three of these habitats. Seasonal appearance of the butterflies was affected both by the ambient temperature and the habitat type. As expected, warmer temperatures led to an overall advancement of the appearance and flight period of most species. Surprisingly, however, phenology of species was delayed in settlement habitats, even though this habitat type is generally associated with higher temperatures. A possible explanation is dispersal among habitat types, such that source–sink effects affect local phenology. When there is little productivity in settlement areas, observed butterflies may have immigrated from forest or agricultural habitats and thus appear later in settlements. My findings suggest that a spillover of individuals among habitats may affect phenology trends and indicate that phenological studies need to be interpreted in the context of habitat types. This becomes especially important when defining strategies to prevent or mitigate effects of climate and land‐use changes on phenology and abundance of species.     

How do species respond to climate change along an elevation gradient? A case study of the grey‐headed robin (Heteromyias albispecularis)

Climate is predicted to change rapidly in the current century, which may lead to shifts of species' ranges, reduced populations and extinctions. Predicting the responses of species abundance to climate change can provide valuable information to quantify climate change impacts and inform their management and conservation, but most studies have been limited to changes in habitat area due to a lack of abundance data. Here, we use generalized linear model and Bayesian information criteria to develop a predictive model based on the abundance of the grey‐headed robin (GHR) and the data of climatic environmental variables. The model is validated by leave‐one‐out cross‐validation and equivalence tests. The responses of GHR abundance, population size and habitat area by elevation are predicted under the current climate and 15 climate change scenarios. The model predicts that when temperature increases, abundance of GHR displays a positive response at high elevation, but a negative response at low elevation. High precipitation at the higher elevations is a limiting factor to GHR and any reduction in precipitation at high elevation creates a more suitable environment, leading to an increase in abundance of GHR, whereas changes in precipitation have little impact at low elevation. The loss of habitat is much more than would otherwise be assumed in response to climate change. Temperature increase is the predominant factor leading to habitat loss, whereas changes in precipitation play a secondary role. When climate changes, the species not only loses part of its habitat but also suffers a loss in its population size in the remaining habitat. Population size declines more than the habitat area under all considered climate change scenarios, which implies that the species might become extinct long before the complete loss of its habitat. This study suggests that some species might experience much more severe impacts from climate change than predicted from models of habitat area alone. Management policies based on predictions of habitat area decline using occurrence data need to be re‐evaluated and alternative measures need to be developed to conserve species in the face of rapid climate change.     

Case study of the implications of climate change for lichen diversity and distributions

There is ample evidence for species distributional changes in response to recent climate change, but most studies are biased toward better known taxa. Thus, an integrated approach is needed that includes the “cryptic diversity” represented partly by lichens, which are among the most sensitive organisms to environmental change due to their physiological characteristics. The use of functional traits and ecological attributes may improve the interpretation of how species respond to climate change. Thus, we quantified the future climate change impacts on 41 lichen species distributed in the Iberian Peninsula using ensemble climatic suitability maps (derived from generalized linear and generalized additive models, and classification and regression tree analysis) and different metrics. We also determined the lichen traits/attributes that might be related to a shared response to climate change. The results indicated a loss of bioclimatic space for 75% of the species studied and an increase for 10 species, especially in Mediterranean ones. Most of the species that will lose more than 70% of their current modeled distribution area comprised big macrolichens with cyanobacteria as the photobiont, thereby indicating a great biomass loss in forests, which might affect nutrient cycles. We also found that the predicted distributions were trait-related. Smaller species, green-algae lichens, and saxicolous and epiphyte species will respond better to future climate change. The results of this type of study may help to identify the species that are most vulnerable to climate change and facilitate the development of conservation measures to avoid their decline.     

Climate change and elevated extinction rates of reptiles from Mediterranean Islands

Recent climate change has caused the distributions of many species to shift poleward, yet few empirical studies have addressed which species will be vulnerable to longer-term climate changes. To investigate past consequences of climate change, we calculated the population extinction rates of 35 reptile species from 87 Greek land-bridge islands in the Mediterranean that occurred over the past 16,000 years. Population extinction rates were higher for those species that today have more northern distributions. We further found that northern species requiring cool, mesic habitats had less available suitable habitat among islands, implicating loss of suitable habitat in their elevated extinction rates. These extinctions occurred in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, with islands shrinking and separating as sea levels rose. Thus, the circumstances faced by reptiles on the islands are similar to challenges for numerous species today that must cope with a changing climate while living in an increasingly human-fragmented landscape. Our island-biogeographical approach to investigating historical population extinctions gives insight into the long-term patterns of species responses to climate change.     

An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change

Threatened and endangered species are more vulnerable to climate change due to small population and specific geographical distribution. Therefore, identifying and incorporating the biological processes underlying a species’ adaptation to its environment are important for determining whether they can persist in situ. Correlative models are widely used to predict species’ distribution changes, but generally fail to capture the buffering capacity of organisms. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) live in topographically complex mountains and are known to avoid heat stress. Although many studies have found that climate change will lead to severe habitat loss and threaten previous conservation efforts, the mechanisms underlying panda's responses to climate change have not been explored. Here, we present a case study in Daxiangling Mountains, one of the six Mountain Systems that giant panda distributes. We used a mechanistic model, Niche Mapper, to explore what are likely panda habitat response to climate change taking physiological, behavioral and ecological responses into account, through which we map panda's climatic suitable activity area (SAA) for the first time. We combined SAA with bamboo forest distribution to yield highly suitable habitat (HSH) and seasonal suitable habitat (SSH), and their temporal dynamics under climate change were predicted. In general, SAA in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7%–52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6%–86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5%–68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070. Our method of mechanistic modeling can help to distinguish whether habitat loss is caused by thermal environmental deterioration or food loss under climate change. Furthermore, mechanistic models can produce robust predictions by incorporating ecophysiological feedbacks and minimizing extrapolation into novel environments. We suggest that a mechanistic approach should be incorporated into distribution predictions and conservation planning.     

Climate effects on the distribution of wetland habitats and connectivity in networks of migratory waterbirds

The establishment and maintenance of conservation areas are among the most common measures to mitigate the loss of biodiversity. However, recent advances in conservation biology have challenged the reliability of such areas to cope with variation in climate conditions. Climate change can reshuffle the geographic distribution of species, but in many cases suitable habitats become scarce or unavailable, limiting the ability to migrate or adapt in response to modified environments. In this respect, the extent to which existing protected areas are able to compensate changes in habitat conditions to ensure the persistence of species still remains unclear. We used a spatially explicit model to measure the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of wetland habitats and connectivity of Natura 2000 sites in Italy. The effects of climate change were measured on the potential for water accumulation in a given site, as a surrogate measure for the persistence of aquatic ecosystems and their associated migratory waterbirds. Climate impacts followed a geographic trend, changing the distribution of suitable habitats for migrants and highlighting a latitudinal threshold beyond which the connectivity reaches a sudden collapse. Our findings show the relative poor reliability of most sites in dealing with changing habitat conditions and ensure the long-term connectivity, with possible consequences for the persistence of species. Although alterations of climate suitability and habitat destruction could impact critical areas for migratory waterbirds, more research is needed to evaluate all possible long-term effects on the connectivity of migratory networks.     

Continental‐scale determinants of population trends in European amphibians and reptiles

The continuous decline of biodiversity is determined by the complex and joint effects of multiple environmental drivers. Still, a large part of past global change studies reporting and explaining biodiversity trends have focused on a single driver. Therefore, we are often unable to attribute biodiversity changes to different drivers, since a multivariable design is required to disentangle joint effects and interactions. In this work, we used a meta‐regression within a Bayesian framework to analyze 843 time series of population abundance from 17 European amphibian and reptile species over the last 45 years. We investigated the relative effects of climate change, alien species, habitat availability, and habitat change in driving trends of population abundance over time, and evaluated how the importance of these factors differs across species. A large number of populations (54%) declined, but differences between species were strong, with some species showing positive trends. Populations declined more often in areas with a high number of alien species, and in areas where climate change has caused loss of suitability. Habitat features showed small variation over the last 25 years, with an average loss of suitable habitat of 0.1%/year per population. Still, a strong interaction between habitat availability and the richness of alien species indicated that the negative impact of alien species was particularly strong for populations living in landscapes with less suitable habitat. Furthermore, when excluding the two commonest species, habitat loss was the main correlate of negative population trends for the remaining species. By analyzing trends for multiple species across a broad spatial scale, we identify alien species, climate change, and habitat changes as the major drivers of European amphibian and reptile decline.     

Global warming threatens the persistence of Mediterranean brown trout

Current climate change exacerbates the environmental restrictions on temperate species inhabiting low latitude edges of their geographical ranges. We examined how temperature variations due to current and future climate change are likely to affect populations’ persistence of stream‐dwelling brown trout Salmo trutta at the vulnerable southern periphery of its range. Analysis of 33 years of air temperature data (1975–2007) by time‐series models indicated a significant upward trend and a pronounced shift in air temperature around 1986‐1987. This warming is associated with an ongoing population decline of brown trout, most likely caused by a loss of suitable thermal habitat in lower latitudes since the 1980s. Population decrease may not be attributed to physical habitat modification or angler pressure, as carrying capacity remained stable and populations were not overexploited. We developed regional temperature models, which predicted that unsuitable thermal habitat for brown trout increased by 93% when comparing climate conditions between 1975–1986 and 1993–2004. Predictions from climate envelope models showed that current climate change may be rendering unsuitable 12% of suitable thermal habitat each decade, resulting in an overall population decrease in the lower reaches of around 6% per year. Furthermore, brown trout catches markedly decreased 20% per year. Projections of thermal habitat loss under the ecologically friendly B2 SRES scenario showed that brown trout may lose half of their current suitable habitat within the study area by 2040 and become almost extinct by 2100. In parallel to the upstream movement of brown trout thermal habitat, warm water species are increasing their relative abundance in salmonid waters. Empirical evidence was provided of how current climate change threatens some of the most healthy native brown trout populations in Southern Europe and how forthcoming climate change is expected to further decrease the conservation status of the species.