Estimating death rates from transect counts

Abstract.

• 1 The time course of abundance of adult insects emerging in discrete generations is modelled, assuming the absence of net migration and a constant death rate. The time till emergence is assumed to be logistically distributed.
• 2 The qualitative features of the model depend on one dimensionless parameter only, namely the product of the death rate and a dispersion measure for the symmetric emergence distribution.
• 3 The model is fitted to data on the abundance of five butterfly species. The tit is excellent; moreover, the estimated death rates are well within the range given in the literature (mostly 0.1–0.2 day^-1). Death rates are generally obtained by mark-recapture methods. The present model gives the opportunity to evaluate some assumptions of these methods.

     

Lion density and population structure in the Selous Game Reserve: evaluation of hunting quotas and offtake

In 1992, tourist hunting in the Selous Game Reserve generated 1.28 million dollars for the Tanzanian government, of which 0·96 million dollars were returned to wildlife conservation. Lions ( Panthera leo ) are one of three critical species for tourist hunting, consistently generating 12%–13% of hunting revenue from 1988 to 1992. Because of their ecological and economic importance (and intrinsic value), it is important that lion quotas be set so that offtake is sustainable. The population density of lions in Selous ranges from 0·08 to 0·13 adults km⁻², comparable to unhunted ecosystems. The adult sex ratio (36–41% male) and the ratio of cubs to adults (29% cubs) are similar to those of unhunted populations. The ratio of lions to hyaenas is lower in heavily hunted areas (0·17 lions/hyena) than in unhunted areas (0·43 lions/hyena). Hunting levels between 1989 and 1994 took 2·7–4·3% of adult males annually, which is sustainable. The current quota is 10–16% of the adult male population, which exceeds natural mortality rates for male lions. To remain stable if the quota was filled, the population would have to compensate via increased fecundity, increased juvenile survival, or an altered sex‐ratio. Compensation occurs in Selous by producing (or raising) more male than female cubs (66–81% of juveniles are male). Only 28% of the Selous quota was filled in 1992. The percentage of quota filled (both in Selous and nationwide) has dropped since 1988 as quotas have increased. The current intensity of lion hunting in Selous is sustainable, but the quota cannot be filled sustainably.     

Microphytoplankton of the Pitchavaram mangals,southeast coast of India: species composition and population density

Species richness of phytoplankton of the Pitchavaram mangals was high. There were 82 species constituted by 67 species of diatoms, 12 species of dinoflagellates and 3 species of bluegreen algae. The diatoms formed the bulk with 72% followed by the dinoflagellates with 15%, in which there were autochthonous (temporary and permanent) and allochthonous forms. Phytoplankton population density exhibited a wide seasonal fluctuation with the minimum during monsoon and the maximum during summer, suggesting the possible differential influence of various environmental factors.     

First record of Alicia mirabilis (Anthozoa: Actiniaria) from the Aegean Sea and density assessment with distance sampling in a site of high abundance

The occurrence of the actiniarian Alicia mirabilis in the Aegean Sea is documented for the first time from five sites in the Saronikos Gulf. The density of A. mirabilis was assessed in one site (Lychnari bay) with line transects (underwater distance sampling with SCUBA). Its density ranged between 0 and 4.3 individuals are^-1 (1 are=100 m²) with a mean of 1.1±0.5 individuals are^-1. The species was found in a variety of substrates (sandy bottoms, weeds, seagrass beds, rocks, litter) and its distribution was aggregated. Distance sampling was an efficient way to estimate the density of A. mirabillis and is proposed as a good choice for density estimations of actiniarians and other benthic fauna.     

Host–parasitoid population density prediction using artificial neural networks: diamondback moth and its natural enemies

• 1 An integrated pest management (IPM) system incorporating the introduction and field release of Diadegma semiclausum (Hellén), a parasitoid of diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.), comprising the worst insect pest of the cabbage family, has been developed in Kenya to replace the pesticides‐only approach.
• 2 Mathematical modelling using differential equations has been used in theoretical studies of host–parasitoid systems. Although, this method helps in gaining an understanding of the system's dynamics, it is generally less accurate when used for prediction. The artificial neural network (ANN) approach was therefore chosen to aid prediction.
• 3 The ANN methodology was applied to predict the population density of the DBM and D. semiclausum, its larval parasitoid. Two data sets, each from different release areas in the Kenya highlands, and both collected during a 3‐year period after the release of the parasitoid, were used in the present study. Two ANN models were developed using these data.
• 4 The ANN approach gave satisfactory results for DBM and for D. semiclausum. Sensitivity analysis suggested that pest populations may be naturally controlled by rainfall.
• 5 The ANN provides a powerful tool for predicting host–parasitoid population densities and made few assumptions on the field data. The approach allowed the use of data collected at any appropriate scale of the system, bypassing the assumptions and uncertainties that could have occurred when parameters are imported from other systems. The methodology can be explored with respect to the development of tools for monitoring and forecasting the population densities of a pest and its natural enemies. In addition, the model can be used to evaluate the relative effectiveness of the natural enemies and to investigate augmentative biological control strategies.

     

Predicting fluctuations of reintroduced ibex populations: the importance of density dependence, environmental stochasticity and uncertain population estimates

1. Development of population projections requires estimates of observation error, parameters characterizing expected dynamics such as the specific population growth rate and the form of density regulation, the influence of stochastic factors on population dynamics, and quantification of the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. 2. Here we construct a Population Prediction Interval (PPI) based on Bayesian state space modelling of future population growth of 28 reintroduced ibex populations in Switzerland that have been censused for up to 68 years. Our aim is to examine whether the interpopulation variation in the precision of the population projections is related to differences in the parameters characterizing the expected dynamics, in the effects of environmental stochasticity, in the magnitude of uncertainty in the population parameters, or in the observation error. 3. The error in the population censuses was small. The median coefficient of variation in the estimates across populations was 5.1%. 4. Significant density regulation was present in 53.6% of the populations, but was in general weak. 5. The width of the PPI calculated for a period of 5 years showed large variation among populations, and was explained by differences in the impact of environmental stochasticity on population dynamics. 6. In spite of the high accuracy in population estimates, the uncertainty in the parameter estimates was still large. This uncertainty affected the precision in the population predictions, but it decreased with increasing length of study period, mainly due to higher precision in the estimates of the environmental variance in the longer time-series. 7. These analyses reveal that predictions of future population fluctuations of weakly density-regulated populations such as the ibex often become uncertain. Credible population predictions require that this uncertainty is properly quantified.     

Modeling density dependence and climatic disturbances in caribou: a case study from the Bathurst Island complex, Canadian High Arctic

Peary caribou Rangifer tarandus pearyi is the northernmost subspecies of Rangifer in North America and endemic to the Canadian High Arctic. Because of severe population declines following years of unfavorable winter weather with ice coating on the ground or thicker snow cover, it is believed that density-independent disturbance events are the primary driver for Peary caribou population dynamics. However, it is unclear to what extent density dependence may affect population dynamics of this species. Here, we test for different levels of density dependence in a stochastic, single-stage population model, based on available empirical information for the Bathurst Island complex (BIC) population in the Canadian High Arctic. We compare predicted densities with observed densities during 1961–2001 under various assumptions of the strength of density dependence. On the basis of our model, we found that scenarios with no or very low density dependence led to population densities far above observed densities. For average observed disturbance regimes, a carrying capacity of 0.1 caribou km⁻² generated an average caribou density similar to that estimated for the BIC population over the past four decades. With our model we also tested the potential effects of climate change-related increases in the probability and severity of disturbance years, that is unusually poor winter conditions. On the basis of our simulation results, we found that, in particular, potential increases in disturbance severity (as opposed to disturbance frequency) may pose a considerable threat to the persistence of this species.     

Aspects of the biology of the yabby Trypea australiensis (Dana) (Decapoda: Thalassinidea) and the potential of burrow counts as an indirect measure of population density

The thalassinidean shrimp Trypea australiensis(the yabby) commonly occurs on intertidal sandflats and subtidal regions of sheltered embayments and estuaries along the east coast of Australia and is harvested commercially and recreationally for use as bait by anglers. The potential for counts of burrow openings to provide a reliable indirect estimate of the abundance of yabbies was examined on intertidal sandflats on North Stradbroke Island (Queensland, Australia). The relationship between the number of burrow openings and the abundance of yabbies was generally poor and also varied significantly through time, casting doubt on previous estimates of abundance for this species based on unvalidated hole counts. Spatial and temporal variation in population density, the size at maturity and the reproductive period of the yabby were also assessed. Except for an initial peak in abundance as a result of recruitment, the density of yabbies was constant throughout the study but considerably less than that estimated from a previous study in the same area. Ovigerous females were recorded at 3 mm carapace length (CL) which is smaller than previously recorded for this species and thalassinideans in general. Small ovigerous females were found throughout the study, including the summer months, which is unusual for thalassinideans in the intertidal zone. It was hypothesised that in the intertidal zone, small female yabbies may be able to balance the metabolic demands of reproduction and respiration at higher temperatures than can larger females allowing them to reproduce in the warmer months.     

Monitoring of the genetic structure of natural populations: change of the effective population size and inversion polymorphism in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Drosophila subobscura</Emphasis>

We analyzed changes in the genetic structure and effective population size of two ecologically distinct populations of Drosophila subobscura over several years. Population sizes of D. subobscura in beech and oak wood habitats for a period of 6 years were estimated by the capture-mark-release-recapture method. Inversion polymorphism parameters were also assessed in the same populations for a period of 3 years. Significant differences in the numbers of individuals were observed between sexes. This affected the effective population sizes between particular years. The ratio of the effective size over the cenzus dropped significantly in beech wood in 2 years. Although overall heterozygosity remained unchanged during the years in both habitats, frequencies of gene arrangements on five chromosomes show variability. After the bottleneck, some complex chromosomal arrangements appeared for the first time in both populations. Standard gene arrangements of chromosome A increased in frequency over the years in each habitat, while the complex arrangements remain rather stable and specific for each population. The results obtained indicate that the population structure may significantly change if the effective size of D. subobscura population is reduced, which is mostly related to microclimatic changes in habitats. Based on the results to date, monitoring of microevolutionary changes by using D. subobscura and its relatives seems a promising way to study the effects of global climate changes.     

Role of prey and intraspecific density dependence on the population growth of an avian top predator

Exploring predator–prey systems in diverse ecosystems increases our knowledge about ecological processes. Predator population growth may be positive when conspecific density is low but predators also need areas with prey availability, associated with competition, which increases the risk of suffering losses but stabilises populations. We studied relationships between European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus (prey) and adult eagle owls Bubo bubo (predators) in south-western Europe. We assessed models explaining the predator population growth and stability. We estimated the abundance of rabbits and adult eagle owls during three years in eight localities of central-southern Spain. We explored models including rabbit and adult eagle owl abundance, accounting for yearly variations and including the locality as a random variable. We found that population growth of adult eagle owls was positive in situations with low conspecific abundance and tended to be negative but approaching equilibrium in situations of higher conspecific abundance. Population growth was also positively related to previous summer rabbit density when taking into account eagle owl conspecific abundance, possibly indicating that rabbits may support recruitment. Furthermore, abundance stability of adult eagle owls was positively related to previous winter–spring rabbit density, which could suggest predator population stabilisation through quick territory occupation in high-quality areas. These results exemplify the trade-off between prey availability and abundance of adult predators related to population growth and abundance stability in the eagle owl–rabbit system in south-western Europe. Despite rabbits have greatly declined during the last decades and eagle owls locally specialise on them, eagle owls currently have a favourable conservation status. As eagle owls are the only nocturnal raptor with such dependence on rabbits, this could point out that predators may overcome prey decreases in areas with favourable climate and prey in the absence of superior competitors with similar foraging mode.     

Host–parasite determinants of parasite population structure: lessons from bats and mites on the importance of time

By definition, parasitic organisms are strongly dependant on their hosts, and for a great majority, this dependence includes host-to-host transmission. Constraints imposed by the host's spatial distribution and demography, in combination with those of the parasite, can lead to a metapopulation structure, where parasite populations are highly stochastic (i.e. prone to frequent extinctions and re-colonizations) and where drift becomes a major force shaping standing genetic variation. This, in turn, will directly affect the observed population structure, along with the ability of the parasite to adapt (or co-adapt) to its host. However, only a specific consideration of temporal dynamics can reveal the extent to which drift shapes parasite population structure; this is rarely taken into account in population genetic studies of parasitic organisms. The study by Bruyndonckx et al. in this issue of Molecular Ecology does just this and, in doing so, illustrates how a comparison of host–parasite co-structures in light of temporal dynamics can be particularly informative for understanding the ecological and evolutionary constraints imposed by the host. More specifically, the authors examine spatial and temporal population genetic data of a parasitic mite Spinturnix bechsteini that exclusively exploits the Bechstein's bat Myotis bechsteinii and consider these data in relation to host–parasite life histories and the population structure of the host.     

Age matters in the prevalence and clinical significance of ultra‐high‐risk for psychosis symptoms and criteria in the general population: Findings from the BEAR and BEARS‐kid studies

Early detection of psychosis is an important topic in psychiatry. Yet, there is limited information on the prevalence and clinical significance of high‐risk symptoms in children and adolescents as compared to adults. We examined ultra‐high‐risk (UHR) symptoms and criteria in a sample of individuals aged 8‐40 years from the general population of Canton Bern, Switzerland, enrolled from June 2011 to May 2014. The current presence of attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and brief intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS) and the fulfillment of onset/worsening and frequency requirements for these symptoms in UHR criteria were assessed using the Structured Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes. Additionally, perceptive and non‐perceptive APS were differentiated. Psychosocial functioning and current non‐psychotic DSM‐IV axis I disorders were also surveyed. Well‐trained psychologists performed assessments. Altogether, 9.9% of subjects reported APS and none BLIPS, and 1.3% met all the UHR requirements for APS. APS were related to more current axis I disorders and impaired psychosocial functioning, indicating some clinical significance. A strong age effect was detected around age 16: compared to older individuals, 8‐15‐year olds reported more perceptive APS, that is, unusual perceptual experiences and attenuated hallucinations. Perceptive APS were generally less related to functional impairment, regardless of age. Conversely, non‐perceptive APS were related to low functioning, although this relationship was weaker in those below age 16. Future studies should address the differential effects of perceptive and non‐perceptive APS, and their interaction with age, also in terms of conversion to psychosis.