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1.
In many parts of the global range, voles form an important part of the diet of Hen Harriers Circus cyaneus , and breeding numbers are correlated with the abundance of these small mammals. In Scotland, however, little information is available on harrier diet in the spring and our understanding of causes of variation in harrier breeding density is complicated by human interference. In this paper we explore the relationship between Field Vole Microtus agrestis abundance and harrier spring diet, density and productivity in southern Scotland. Over three years, voles occurred on average in 67% of pellets, and 79% in years of high and intermediate vole abundance. From 1992, the number of breeding harriers increased following protection from illegal persecution. After accounting for this trend, harrier numbers correlated strongly with vole abundance. Harrier clutch size was also correlated with vole abundance. Although fledging success tended to be greater in years of vole increase than in years of vole decline, fledging success was not significantly correlated with the relative abundance of voles, or with the abundance of Meadow Pipits or Red Grouse chicks.  相似文献   

2.
Capsule In most years, changes in numbers are associated with variations in breeding success.

Aims To describe the annual variation in numbers and breeding success of Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus and Black Grouse Tetrao tetrix at Abernethy Forest, and their inter‐relationships.

Methods Numbers and breeding success of Capercaillies and Black Grouse were recorded annually at Abernethy Forest (a Scots Pine Pinus sylvestris forest comprising ancient native, or semi‐natural, pinewood and plantations) during 1989–2009. Indices of abundance and densities of Capercaillies were obtained along transects, while counts of males at leks were obtained for both species. Breeding success (number of chicks per female) was obtained using dogs to locate females and chicks.

Results Capercaillie: the index of abundance increased to a peak in winter 1996/97 (2.7 times greater than in 1992/93) and then declined. There was no long‐term trend. In winters 2003/04 and 2004/05, the mean density was 4.2 per km2 (95% CLs 3.1–5.7). The total number was 140 (95% CLs 100–220) for 2003/04 and 170 (95% CLs 110–280) for 2004/05, comprising about 8% of the Scottish population. The number of males at leks peaked in 1995 (to 46 males) and again in 2004 (41 males), and there was no long‐term trend. The annual breeding success varied from 0 to 2.93 chicks per female (mean = 0.64). The mean was within the 95% CLs of an independent estimate of the productivity required to maintain numbers. In a free‐running model, annual breeding success and survival rates (which were assumed to improve when mortality owing to fence collisions was removed) largely accounted for the annual variation in the index of abundance, as measured from winter counts along transects during 1990/91 to 2002/03. If mortality associated with collisions with fences had continued, the index would have declined, assuming no immigration.

Black Grouse: The number of male birds at leks increased to a peak in 1997 (to 165 males), before falling back to a smaller number (about 50 males) in the early 2000s. There was a smaller peak in 2007. The annual breeding success varied from 0 to 4.71 chicks per female (mean = 1.76).

Conclusion Numbers of Capercaillies and Black Grouse varied over a 19‐year period at Abernethy Forest, but did not show either upward or downward trends, while the national population of Capercaillies dipped to a low level in 1998/99, and the Black Grouse population continued to decline. In most years, changes in numbers of both species were associated with variation in breeding production. Mortality caused by collisions with fences would have led to a decline in Capercaillie numbers if fences had not been removed.  相似文献   

3.
Buzzard density and distribution increased significantly in the West Midlands between 1983 and 1996. The number of soaring Buzzards counted in spring increased by 118% in the main range, 348% in the edge range and 231% overall. Although there was no significant linear trend in breeding success between 1950 and 1995, numbers of young fledged per breeding attempt were highest in the period 1980–95. This high productivity coincided with an increase in Rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus abundance. Persecution levels, especially poisonings, appear to have been lower in the 1990s than during 1975–89. Increased productivity due to high Rabbit abundance, and higher survival rates due to reduced persecution, are likely to be the main factors responsible for the rapid increase in the Buzzard population in this area. Buzzards are increasing in numbers in other parts of Britain and Ireland and may now be more numerous than at any time this century.  相似文献   

4.
Nielsen JT  Møller AP 《Oecologia》2006,149(3):505-518
The reproductive success of predators depends on abiotic environmental conditions, food abundance and population density, and food abundance, density and their interactions may respond to changes in climatic conditions. Timing of reproduction by five of the eight numerically most common prey of the sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus advanced significantly since 1971, during a period of temperature increase. There was no evidence that mean laying date or any other reproductive parameter of sparrowhawks changed consistently during the study period 1977–1997. Laying date advanced and percentage of unsuccessful female sparrowhawks decreased with beech mast in the current year, an index of food abundance for avian prey. Mean laying date of sparrowhawks was advanced in warmer springs, and although mean clutch size was not larger in warm than in cold springs, mean brood size of successful pairs and breeding success increased in such springs, showing that sparrowhawks enjoyed a fitness gain when reproducing early. The timing of sparrowhawk reproduction with respect to the peak in abundance of fledgling prey increased, from a good match between mean timing of fledging by prey and maximum demand for food by the predator in 1977, to reproduction occurring later than the peak in fledging prey availability in 1997. The size of the breeding population of sparrowhawks was not predicted by mean spring temperature, the size of the breeding population the previous year or beech mast crop. The size of the post-breeding population was predicted by size of the breeding and post-breeding population the previous year and by the proportion of unsuccessful females the current year. These findings imply that sparrowhawks did not respond to change in climate, although climate changed the timing of reproduction by the main prey species.  相似文献   

5.
Contemporary research has documented a large number of shifts in spring phenology and changes in distribution range although the average spring temperatures have increased by only 0.3–0.6 °C over the past 100 years. Generally, earlier breeding birds have larger clutch sizes, and the advancing spring could thus potentially increase breeding success. Shifts in spring phenology can, however, be crucial for bird reproduction, and mistiming the breeding event may even have negative consequences for population development. Our aim was to explore how weather and prey abundance relates to the breeding performance of a north European top predator, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Our nationwide dataset from Finland, spanning the period 1989–2004, shows that ambient weather has a greater impact on the timing and success of breeding than the density of grouse Tetraonidae, the main prey of goshawks. Higher early spring temperatures were associated with advancing hatching date of goshawks. Correspondingly, grouse density and temperature during laying and brooding were positively associated with brood size, while precipitation showed a negative connection. Applying our models to a future scenario of climate warming, combined with a 50 % reduction in grouse density, suggests that average breeding dates will advance only 2.5 days and average breeding success would remain the same. Notably, breeding success was not spatially equal throughout Finland, as northern and eastern populations suffered most from declining grouse densities. The observed pattern is thus the opposite to what is expected from a population situated at the northern edge of its distribution range, and thus may help to understand why populations may not increase at the northern edge of their thermal distribution due to climate change.  相似文献   

6.
Climate warming is pronounced in the Arctic and migratory birds are expected to be among the most affected species. We examined the effects of local and regional climatic variations on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of greater snow geese ( Chen caerulescens atlantica ), a migratory species nesting in the Canadian Arctic. We used a long-term dataset based on the monitoring of 5447 nests and the measurements of 19 234 goslings over 16 years (1989–2004) on Bylot Island. About 50% of variation in the reproductive phenology of individuals was explained by spring climatic factors. High mean temperatures and, to a lesser extent, low snow cover in spring were associated with an increase in nest density and early egg-laying and hatching dates. High temperature in spring and high early summer rainfall were positively related to nesting success. These effects may result from a reduction in egg predation rate when the density of nesting geese is high and when increased water availability allows females to stay close to their nest during incubation recesses. Summer brood loss and production of young at the end of the summer increased when values of the summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) index were either very positive (low temperatures) or very negative (high temperatures), indicating that these components of the breeding success were most influenced by the regional summer climate. Gosling mass and size near fledging were reduced in years with high spring temperatures. This effect is likely due to a reduced availability of high quality food in years with early spring, either due to food depletion resulting from high brood density or a mismatch between hatching date of goslings and the timing of the peak of plant quality. Our analysis suggests that climate warming should advance the reproductive phenology of geese, but that high spring temperatures and extreme values of the summer AO index may decrease their reproductive success up to fledging.  相似文献   

7.
Reproductive output of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos (L.), was studied in two areas within the species distribution in northern Sweden during 1975–1980. Reproductive success was compared with the abundance (based on hunting bag statistics) of small game prey species and with the microtine cycles. The proportion of golden eagle pairs with successful breeding and the number of young produced per occupied territory varied greatly between years (21–85% and 0.27–1.24, respectively). In the northern study area I found a significant correlation between the proportion of pairs with successful breeding versus total hunting bag of small game species. There were also significant correlations between vole density and breeding success one year later. This was not the case in the southern study area, mainly due to a good reproductive year for golden eagles in 1977 when small game species were scarce. The good reproductive output in 1977 may be explained by favourable weather conditions that spring. Whether breeding occurs or not is probably determined by prey abundance early in spring just before the golden eagle female lays her eggs.  相似文献   

8.
The breeding success and chronology of Wood Storks Mycteria americana were studied at eight colonies in northern and central Florida during 1981–1985. Mean ± s.d. clutch size for all colony-years was 3.07 ± 0.56 (n = 2694 nests), with three-egg clutches (72%) most frequent. Mean clutch size among all colonies and years ranged from 2.73 ± 0.55 to 3.41 ± 0.61. Many colonies exhibited significant negative trends in clutch size with, hatching date because of a proportional decrease in four-egg clutches later in the season. Mean colony clutch size was not correlated with nest numbers, nesting density or mean hatching date within most years. Mean ± s.d. number of fledglings for all colonies and years was 1.29 ± 1.16 fledglings per nest (n = 2812 nests). Mean annual fledging rates in colonies ranged from 0 (colony failed) to 2.66 fledglings per nest. Most breeding failure occurred prior to egg hatching, and the second highest mortality occurred between hatching and 2 weeks of age. Four-egg clutches fledged more storks than three-egg clutches, which in turn were more successful than two-egg clutches. However, all clutch sizes showed similar fledgling per egg rates. The seasonal decline in productivity was associated proportionally with smaller clutch sizes later in the breeding season. An increase in mean hatching date was correlated with an increase in latitude. There was greater within-year breeding synchrony among colonies than interyear breeding synchrony within each colony. Breeding synchrony was not correlated with mean hatching date, latitude, longitude, nest numbers or nesting density.  相似文献   

9.
1.  Spatial variation in breeding performance is of critical importance in understanding the large-scale distribution and abundance of living species, and in understanding species conservation. We studied the large-scale spatial variation in reproductive output of two species of declining British bird, the song thrush Turdus philomelos and the blackbird Turdus merula .
2.  We developed a method to predict spatial variation in reproductive output. Brood size and nest failure rates during the incubation and nestling periods were related to environmental factors using generalized linear models. Predicted values obtained from these models were combined to give values of number of fledglings produced per nesting attempt for 10-km squares throughout Britain.
3.  We observed substantial spatial variation in reproductive output for both species; the component that varied most was nest failure rate during incubation. We were more successful in relating environmental factors to spatial variation in reproductive output for song thrush than for blackbird.
4.  Reproductive output in both species was affected mainly by factors that vary on a small spatial scale. Nest failure rate during incubation increased significantly where corvids were more abundant, suggesting a role for avian nest predators in determining spatial variation in reproductive output.
5.  Our approach can be extended readily to other species of birds, to other taxonomic groups and to finer spatial scales. Such models could be used to evaluate the implications of current and proposed wider countryside management for spatial variation in breeding performance. Evaluations based on breeding success as well as numbers are likely to be more robust than those based solely on abundance.  相似文献   

10.
Using daily counts of birds seen at six coastal bird observatories in southern and eastern England, we explored the migration phenology of turtle doves during the period 1963 to 2000. Annual totals increased threefold up to the late 1970s then decreased again, in accordance with the BTO Common Birds Census (CBC) index of abundance. Median annual spring arrival and autumn departure dates of turtle doves were not related to abundance (CBC index) or mean temperature in spring or summer respectively. Although median annual spring arrival date has not altered over the 38-year period, median annual autumn departure date has become earlier by 8 days. This has resulted in a shortening of the breeding season by 12 days, which ties in with a reduction in average number of nesting attempts per pair observed by a recent autecological study. It is possible that breeding turtle doves are now out of phase with peaks in food availability. This may have resulted in reduced breeding performance and earlier termination of the breeding season, and may have partly contributed to the decline of the species.  相似文献   

11.
The breeding biology of the Red Kite Milvus milvus is still little known in the southern part of its range (Mediterranean), despite recent conservation concerns and major declines in most insular populations (Sicily, Sardinia and Balearics). We report here on the breeding biology of the Red Kite in Corsica in 1996–99 and on recent population trends there. In a 42‐km2 study area located in the northwest of the island (Balagne region), breeding density was locally high (1.17–1.78 breeding pairs/km2). Breeding dispersion ranged from loosely colonial to dispersed, with average nearest‐neighbour distance of 444 ± 316 m (range 50–2000) (all data as means ± sd). Kites established breeding territories in January–February, and 92.4% of territorial pairs laid a clutch (n = 238). Laying took place between February and May (mean lay date: 27 March ± 16 days, n = 147). Clutch size averaged 2.44 ± 0.71 (1–5 eggs, n = 96), hatching success 66.9% and fledging success 78.6%. Productivity averaged 1.33 ± 0.88 young per breeding attempt (n = 221) and 1.65 ± 0.65 young per successful breeding attempt (n = 173). Overall breeding success was 51.4 ± 38.0% (n = 88). We describe the growth of young (wing, weight, tarsus and bill) and show a marked seasonal decline in clutch size and breeding performance, with pairs laying earlier producing larger clutches and being more successful than later breeding pairs. Unlike most other insular Mediterranean Red Kite populations that have recently declined, the breeding population in the northwest of Corsica, which accounts for c. 25% of the whole island population, increased from 25 to 35 pairs in 1989 to a maximum of 80–90 pairs in 1997. This increase was probably related to the lack of persecution and a local increase in abundance of Rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus, following their introduction in the late 1970s, which provided an important feeding resource for Kites. Finally, we compare our results with those from other Red Kite populations studied in Europe. We found that there is a latitudinal gradient in laying date and productivity across Western Europe populations, but no evidence of an insular syndrome in the Corsican population.  相似文献   

12.
Great Bitterns Botaurus stellaris have experienced a population decline in the UK, such that in 1997 the total number of breeding males was just 11. This study aimed to identify factors affecting productivity, and how management could be used to manipulate this. An intensive study of Great Bittern breeding success was conducted between 1997 and 2001. The date that males established their booming territories was closely correlated with when females started nesting. Wetter sites with greater fish densities had males that established their booming territories earlier in the season. However, only the date that males started booming determined when females started nesting. The mean clutch size of Great Bitterns was four and the only cause of nest failure was predation. Of eight nests suspected to be second attempts the mean interval between these first and second attempts was 12.25 ± 0.88 (sd) days (range 8–15). The fate of radiotagged chicks followed to fledging revealed that the overall probability of a chick surviving to fledge was 39.1%. Daily losses of Great Bittern chicks due to starvation/exposure accounted for 76.25% and predation 21.25%. The youngest chicks in poor condition were most likely to die, particularly in periods of high rainfall. A simulated renesting model allowed estimation of Great Bittern productivity as 1.24 chicks per female and 1.52 nesting attempts per female. Habitat management, or lack of water control that resulted in sites being drier in spring, delayed nesting, although statistically there was no difference in productivity compared with wetter sites.  相似文献   

13.
The migratory European Turtle Dove Streptopelia turtur has undergone a 69% decline in population size and a 25% contraction in breeding range in Britain over the last 30 years. An investigation of the breeding ecology of this summer visitor was undertaken in 1998–2000 at two study sites in East Anglia, England. The only previous study of Turtle Dove reproduction in Britain provided pre-decline data for comparison with the current situation in a modern agricultural environment. Territory sizes ranged from 1.91 to 3.08 ha, were established in areas with scrub, hedges and woodland and contained less cropped land than expected from its availability. The majority of nests were sited 1–3 m above ground level within thorny bushes, particularly Hawthorn Crataegus monogyna . Nests found by radiotelemetry were significantly higher above ground level and were found in greater numbers than expected in woodland and coniferous trees than those found by cold searching, which were lower and found predominantly in hedges and thorny bushes. Turtle Dove nest success rate averaged 53% during incubation and 65% during the nestling stage, so that only 35% of nests successfully produced young. A comparison with data collected during the 1960s showed that Turtle Doves today have a shorter breeding season and consequently produce about half the number of clutches and young per pair than formerly. A simple simulation model suggested that the reduction in productivity alone would lead to a population decline of 17% per annum. This study suggests that the recovery of Turtle Doves in Britain is dependent upon the provision and sympathetic management of nesting and foraging habitats. The current arrangements for set-aside and agri-environmental schemes provide the framework for delivering these requirements.  相似文献   

14.
J. W.H. Ferguson 《Ostrich》2013,84(3-4):274-280
Summary

Ferguson, J.W.H. 1994. Do nest site characteristics affect the breeding success of Red Bishops Euplectes orix? Ostrich 65:274-280.

A colony of Red Bishop birds Euplectes orix in a reed bed near Pretoria was studied during two breeding seasons. Breeding activity was greater during the second year, following increased rainfall. Predation was the most important source of mortality with 25–30% of the nests yielding fledglings. Between 7 and 11% of the nests were parasitised by Diederik Cuckoos. Reed height and distance from the edge of the reed bed were strongly correlated with nest density. From a temporal perspective breeding success was highest in late January following the peak in breeding activity. These observations suggest that overall breeding success is higher when nest densities are low. The mean fledging rate per nest was lower in areas of high nest density. This was, however, a statistical artifact. Multivariate analyses could not identify any environmental factors as predictors of breeding success within a colony.  相似文献   

15.
Individuals can gain fitness benefits and costs through their mates. However, studies on sexual selection have tended to focus on genetic benefits. A potentially widespread cost of pairing with a parasitized mate is that doing so will increase an individual's parasite abundance. Such a cost has been overlooked in systems in which parasites are indirectly transmitted. We manipulated the abundance of the nematode parasite Trichostrongylus tenuis, an indirectly transmitted parasite, within pairs of wild red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus in spring. Parasite levels were correlated within pairs before the experiment. We removed parasites from males, females, or both members of the pair and evaluated individual parasite uptake over the subsequent breeding period. At the end of the breeding season, an individual's parasite abundance was greater when its mate had not been initially purged of parasites. This cost appeared to be greater for males. We discuss the implications of our results in relation to the costs that parasites may have on sexual selection processes.  相似文献   

16.
The economic weights for somatic cell score (SCS) have been calculated using profit functions. Economic data were collected in the Latxa breed. Three aspects have been considered: bulk tank milk payment, veterinary treatments due to high SCS, and culling. All of them are non-linear profit functions. Milk payment is based on the sum of the log-normal distributions of somatic cell count, and veterinary treatments on the probability of subclinical mastitis, which is inferred when individual SCS surpass some threshold. Both functions lead to non-standard distributions. The derivatives of the profit function were computed numerically. Culling was computed by assuming that a conceptual trait culled by mastitis (CBM) is genetically correlated to SCS. The economic weight considers the increase in the breeding value of CBM correlated to an increase in the breeding value of SCS, assuming genetic correlations ranging from 0 to 0.9. The relevance of the economic weights for selection purposes was checked by the estimation of genetic gains for milk yield and SCS under several scenarios of genetic parameters and economic weights. The overall economic weights for SCS range from − 2.6 to − 9.5 € per point of SCS, with an average of − 4 € per point of SCS, depending on the expected average SCS of the flock. The economic weight is higher around the thresholds for payment policies. Economic weights did not change greatly with other assumptions. The estimated genetic gains with economic weights of 0.83 € per l of milk yield and − 4 € per point of SCS, assuming a genetic correlation of − 0.30, were 3.85 l and − 0.031 SCS per year, with an associated increase in profit of 3.32 €. This represents a very small increase in profit (about 1%) relative to selecting only for milk yield. Other situations (increased economic weights, different genetic correlations) produced similar genetic gains and changes in profit. A desired-gains index reduced the increase in profit by 3%, although it could be greater depending on the genetic parameters. It is concluded that the inclusion of SCS in dairy sheep breeding programs is of low economic relevance and recommended only if recording is inexpensive or for animal welfare concerns.  相似文献   

17.
The reproductive success of Great Bustards Otis tarda in north-western Spain was studied between 1987 and 1998, both at the population ( c . 700 adult females breeding in our study area) and the individual level (sample of 32 marked females). Overall productivity was low, with a population mean of only 0.14 chicks reared per adult female, and an average breeding success of 0.15 chicks per year in the sample of marked females, but interannual variability was high (0.04–0.29). Population productivity was positively correlated with winter (October–March) precipitation prior to each breeding season, and negatively correlated with the number of days of rain during the hatching period. High annual productivity resulted from a high proportion of females rearing two chicks. Reproductive success was higher in females older than 6 years than in younger birds. The proportion of females in the marked sample that failed in breeding after having bred successfully the previous season was significantly higher than the proportion of those that did not. Finally, females with a higher than average breeding success tended to breed successfully in years of both low and high population productivity, whereas those with lower than average breeding success did so only in years of high productivity.  相似文献   

18.
In seasonal environments variation in food abundance in the non‐breeding season is thought to affect songbird population dynamics. In a unique tit‐sea buckthorn berry system we can estimate the berry abundance and both the tit consumption and population dynamics. Six hundred nest boxes were available to great and blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus for breeding in spring and roosting in winter. We followed the dynamics including the recapture histories of individually marked great tits from 2008 to 2014. In each year we estimated 1) the winter sea buckthorn berry availability, 2) an index of berry consumption in December based on the colour of the faeces of roosting birds, 3) the number of breeding great and blue tits, 4) both recapture probability and the return rate of the great tits and 5) immigration rates. December berry abundance positively predicted the number of breeding pairs of both species in the subsequent season and great tit return rates in the second half of the winter. There was support for a sex specific berry effect on the adult return rate in the great tit: female return rate was associated less strongly to berry abundance than male return rate. This skewed the sex ratio of the local breeders in the following breeding season. Intriguingly, annual berry consumption in December was not related to berry abundance, and individuals consuming more berries tended to have slightly lower return rates. Reproductive rate was not related to berry abundance. There was hardly support for a relation between immigration rates of first year breeders and berry abundance. Taken together these results imply that berry stock not only affected population size but also the population composition through sex specific exchange with the surroundings. Since population density covaried with berry abundance, density dependent effects provide an alternative explanation for the patterns observed.  相似文献   

19.
1. The effects of supplementary food in spring on subsequent pheasant breeding in an intensively farmed area in southern England were assessed by a large-scale, replicated field experiment.
2. Territorial cock pheasants were counted in April, and the breeding success and survival of radio-tagged hens were monitored in six 1-km2 plots during 1994 and 1995. Total numbers of young reared and post-breeding pheasant densities were found by August counts. In 1994, three randomly selected plots were supplied with wheat grains via hoppers along woodland edges and hedgerows. The other three plots acted as controls and the treatments were reversed in 1995.
3. The density of cock territories increased significantly in food-supplemented plots (44 ± 8 km−2) in relation to control plots (29 ± 8 km−2), and the presence of hoppers significantly affected the locations of territories. However, similar proportions of territorial males acquired harems in the control and food-supplemented plots. Hen density did not increase and, consequently, the mean harem size was significantly lower with supplementary feeding.
4. Hens given supplementary food did not nest earlier and the number of nests initiated, clutch sizes and the proportion of successful nests did not differ significantly from those of controls. However, hens supplied with supplementary food re-nested significantly more quickly following the loss of a nest or brood.
5. Radio-tagged hens did not rear significantly more young with supplementary feeding. Hen survival was unchanged and post-breeding pheasant densities were no higher.
6. On present evidence, spring feeding cannot be advocated as a management technique to improve the breeding success of pheasants surviving the winter.  相似文献   

20.
I. NEWTON  J. A. BOGAN†  M. B. Haas 《Ibis》1989,131(3):355-376
The levels of various contaminants were measured in 550 addled and deserted Peregrine Falco peregrinus eggs obtained in Britain during 1963-86. In this period the population was recovering from a low level imposed by organochlorine pesticides. Over the whole period, HEOD levels declined in eggs from both inland and coastal regions, while DDE levels declined in eggs from inland regions. At the same time, shell-indices improved. PCB levels increased in eggs from inland regions. At any one time, levels of DDE and HEOD in eggs decreased and shell-indices increased from south to north within Britain. These gradients fitted with the extent of agricultural land (= pesticide use) and with the extent of Peregrine population decline (both greatest in the south). No south-north trend was apparent in levels of PCBs derived from industrial sources. In some regions eggs from coastal sites were more contaminated than eggs from inland sites, especially with PCBs and mercury. Significant relationships were found between brood sizes and DDE levels, between brood sizes and shell-indices, and between shell-indices and DDE levels. This implied that DDE influenced shell thickness and breeding success. Some evidence was obtained that mercury reduced brood sizes, but no evidence that HEOD and PCB (at the levels found) did so. Overall, DDE and mercury levels together accounted for 17% of the variance in brood sizes during 1963-86. On a regional basis, DDE had no obvious effect on mean productivity when the geometric mean DDE level in collected eggs was less than 3 p.p.m., and when mean shell-index was no more than 8% less than normal. At higher DDE levels, and lower shell-indices, productivity declined markedly. Recovery of regional populations was associated with geometric mean HEOD levels in eggs no greater than 0–7 p.p.m., DDE levels no greater than 15 p.p.m., shell indices no more than about 15–20% below normal, and a mean breeding success exceeding 0–6 young per territorial pair.  相似文献   

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