Rainfall variability and Twareg perceptions of climate impacts in Niger

A survey was conducted among the pastoral Twareg of Niger on their perceptions of rainfall impacts for each year from 1947 through 1988. The herders saw drought as a prolonged process with a multi-year onset that culminated in a single year of extreme crisis and abated gradually. The identified crisis years, 1973 and 1984, corresponded with historical rainfall data that showed each of these to have been the second consecutive year of extreme drought. Single years of drought, which may have served as red-flag signals of impending crisis scenarios, were not identified by the herders. Rainfall measurements from the zone of extensive cultivation, south of the pastoral habitat, did not correlate well with key crisis years or the herders' perceptions. Neither did national-level livestock market statistics. It was concluded that rainfall was a reliable indicator for a drought early warning system for the northern Sahel, provided that the measurements were taken from an ecologically-defined pastoral habitat.This paper was written while the author was a research affiliate at the University of Florida Center for African Studies.     

The impacts of climate change on the wintering distribution of an endangered migratory bird

There is now ample evidence of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the distribution and abundance of species. The black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) is an endangered migratory species and endemic to East Asia. Using a maximum entropy approach, we predicted the potential wintering distribution for spoonbills and modeled the effects of future climate change. Elevation, human influence index and precipitation during the coldest quarter contributed most to model development. Five regions, including western Taiwan, scattered locations from eastern coastal to central mainland China, coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea, northeastern coastal areas of Vietnam and sites along the coast of Japan, were found to have a high probability of presence and showed good agreement with historical records. Assuming no limits to the spread of this species, the wintering range is predicted to increase somewhat under a changing climate. However, three currently highly suitable regions (northeastern Vietnam, Taiwan and coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea) may face strong reductions in range by 2080. We also found that the center of the predicted range of spoonbills will undergo a latitudinal shift northwards by as much as 240, 450, and 600 km by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively. Our findings suggest that species distribution modeling can inform the current and future management of the black-faced spoonbill throughout Asia. It is clear that a strong international strategy is needed to conserve spoonbill populations under a changing climate.     

Criteria for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems

There is concern about the potential impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. To address this concern, a large body of literature has developed in which these impacts are assessed. In this study, criteria for conducting reliable and useful assessments of impacts of future climate are suggested. The major decisions involve: clearly defining an emissions scenario; selecting a climate model; evaluating climate model skill and bias; quantifying General Circulation Model (GCM) between-model variability; selecting an ecosystem model and assessing uncertainty; properly considering transient versus equilibrium responses; including effects of CO(2) on plant response; evaluating implications of simplifying assumptions; and considering animal linkage with vegetation. A sample of the literature was surveyed in light of these criteria. Many of the studies used climate simulations that were >10 years old and not representative of best current models. Future effects of elevated CO(2) on plant drought resistance and productivity were generally included in growth model studies but not in niche (habitat suitability) studies, causing the latter to forecast greater future adverse impacts. Overly simplified spatial representation was frequent and caused the existence of refugia to be underestimated. Few studies compared multiple climate simulations and ecosystem models (including parametric uncertainty), leading to a false impression of precision and potentially arbitrary results due to high between-model variance. No study assessed climate model retrodictive skill or bias. Overall, most current studies fail to meet all of the proposed criteria. Suggestions for improving assessments are provided.     

Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering bald eagles

Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are recovering from severe population declines, and are exerting pressure on food resources in some areas. Thousands of bald eagles overwinter near Puget Sound, primarily to feed on chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) carcasses. We used modeling techniques to examine how anticipated climate changes will affect energetic demands of overwintering bald eagles. We applied a regional downscaling method to two global climate change models to obtain hourly temperature, precipitation, wind, and longwave radiation estimates at the mouths of three Puget Sound tributaries (the Skagit, Hamma Hamma, and Nisqually rivers) in two decades, the 1970s and the 2050s. Climate data were used to drive bald eagle bioenergetics models from December to February for each river, year, and decade. Bald eagle bioenergetics were insensitive to climate change: despite warmer winters in the 2050s, particularly near the Nisqually River, bald eagle food requirements declined only slightly (<1%). However, the warming climate caused salmon carcasses to decompose more rapidly, resulting in 11% to 14% less annual carcass biomass available to eagles in the 2050s. That estimate is likely conservative, as it does not account for decreased availability of carcasses due to anticipated increases in winter stream flow. Future climate-driven declines in winter food availability, coupled with a growing bald eagle population, may force eagles to seek alternate prey in the Puget Sound area or in more remote ecosystems.     

Evaluating climate change impacts on Alpine floodplain vegetation

This study aims to evaluate the long-term impacts of climate change on Alpine riparian vegetation. Special attention is given to the hydrological factors influencing the establishment, development, and retrogression of riparian vegetation. The study has been carried out in a reach of the upper course of the Drau River (Austria). Long-term effects of climate change on the local riparian vegetation were simulated using a dynamic vegetation model. The model simulates annual time steps, and provides the spatial and quantitative vegetation distribution changes over time. Climate change impacts have been estimated by performing five simulations, spanning 31 years. The first simulation was based on the reference period 1960–1990 while the remaining four were based on the sub-scenarios of the IPCC storyline A1B. Simulation results show consistent variations in both the distributions of quantitative and spatio-temporal vegetation type, primarily due to peak discharges alterations rather than to the mean spring discharges which typically influence the recruitment. Climate change scenarios forecasting an overall increase of peak discharge lead to prevailing retrogression as opposed to successional processes. Conversely, in the climate change scenarios with peak flow reduction, successional processes are dominant and vegetation is predicted to expand into the active channel.     

Lateral thinking on data to identify climate impacts

It has never been more urgent to identify the potential impacts of climate change. In our quest for information, we often rely on records that reveal how organisms and systems responded to past climates. A new study by Miller-Rushing et al. uses some unorthodox archive material (photographs and herbarium specimens) to examine changes in flowering phenology in the USA. Their approach suggests that we have failed to think-outside-the-box and have been overlooking a valuable resource for climate-impact research.     

Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk

Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.     

Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater fisheries

Despite uncertainty in all levels of analysis, recent and long-term changes in our climate point to the distinct possibility that greenhouse gas emissions have altered mean annual temperatures, precipitation and weather patterns. Modeling efforts that use doubled atmospheric CO₂ scenarios predict a 1–7°C mean global temperature increase, regional changes in precipitation patterns and storm tracks, and the possibility of “surprises” or sudden irreversible regime shifts. The general effects of climate change on freshwater systems will likely be increased water temperatures, decreased dissolved oxygen levels, and the increased toxicity of pollutants. In lotic systems, altered hydrologic regimes and increased groundwater temperatures could affect the quality of fish habitat. In lentic systems, eutrophication may be exacerbated or offset, and stratification will likely become more pronounced and stronger. This could alter food webs and change habitat availability and quality. Fish physiology is inextricably linked to temperature, and fish have evolved to cope with specific hydrologic regimes and habitat niches. Therefore, their physiology and life histories will be affected by alterations induced by climate change. Fish communities may change as range shifts will likely occur on a species level, not a community level; this will add novel biotic pressures to aquatic communities. Genetic change is also possible and is the only biological option for fish that are unable to migrate or acclimate. Endemic species, species in fragmented habitats, or those in east–west oriented systems will be less able to follow changing thermal isolines over time. Artisanal, commercial, and recreational fisheries worldwide depend upon freshwater fishes. Impacted fisheries may make it difficult for developing countries to meet their food demand, and developed countries may experience economic losses. As it strengthens over time, global climate change will become a more powerful stressor for fish living in natural or artificial systems. Furthermore, human response to climate change (e.g., increased water diversion) will exacerbate its already-detrimental effects. Model predictions indicate that global climate change will continue even if greenhouse gas emissions decrease or cease. Therefore, proactive management strategies such as removing other stressors from natural systems will be necessary to sustain our freshwater fisheries.     

Bioenergetic prediction of climate change impacts on northern mammals

Climate change will likely alter the distribution and abundanceof northern mammals through a combination of direct, abioticeffects (e.g., changes in temperature and precipitation) andindirect, biotic effects (e.g., changes in the abundance ofresources, competitors, and predators). Bioenergetic approachesare ideally suited to predicting the impacts of climate changebecause individual energy budgets integrate biotic and abioticinfluences, and translate individual function into populationand community outcomes. In this review, we illustrate how bioenergeticscan be used to predict the regional biodiversity, species rangelimits, and community trophic organization of mammals underfuture climate scenarios. Although reliable prediction of climatechange impacts for particular species requires better data andtheory on the physiological ecology of northern mammals, tworobust hypotheses emerge from the bioenergetic approaches presentedhere. First, the impacts of climate change in northern regionswill be shaped by the appearance of new species at least asmuch as by the disappearance of current species. Second, seasonallyinactive mammal species (e.g., hibernators), which are largelyabsent from the Canadian arctic at present, should undergo substantialincreases in abundance and distribution in response to climatechange, probably at the expense of continuously active mammalsalready present in the arctic.     

Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080

A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.     

The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds

Organisms living today are descended from ancestors that experienced considerable climate change in the past. However, they are currently presented with many new, man-made challenges, including rapid climate change. Migration and reproduction of many avian species are controlled by endogenous mechanisms that have been under intense selection over time to ensure that arrival to and departure from breeding grounds is synchronized with moderate temperatures, peak food availability and availability of nesting sites. The timing of egg laying is determined, usually by both endogenous clocks and local factors, so that food availability is near optimal for raising young. Climate change is causing mismatches in food supplies, snow cover and other factors that could severely impact successful migration and reproduction of avian populations unless they are able to adjust to new conditions. Resident (non-migratory) birds also face challenges if precipitation and/or temperature patterns vary in ways that result in mismatches of food and breeding. Predictions that many existing climates will disappear and novel climates will appear in the future suggest that communities will be dramatically restructured by extinctions and changes in range distributions. Species that persist into future climates may be able to do so in part owing to the genetic heritage passed down from ancestors who survived climate changes in the past.     

Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology

Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed.     

Bayesian analysis of climate change impacts in phenology

The identification of changes in observational data relating to the climate change hypothesis remains a topic of paramount importance. In particular, scientifically sound and rigorous methods for detecting changes are urgently needed. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to nonparametric function estimation. The method is applied to blossom time series of Prunus avium L., Galanthus nivalis L. and Tilia platyphyllos SCOP. The functional behavior of these series is represented by three different models: the constant model, the linear model and the one change point model. The one change point model turns out to be the preferred one in all three data sets with considerable discrimination of the other alternatives. In addition to the functional behavior, rates of change in terms of days per year were also calculated. We obtain also uncertainty margins for both function estimates and rates of change. Our results provide a quantitative representation of what was previously inferred from the same data by less involved methods.     

'Changing climate, changing health, changing stories' profile: using an EcoHealth approach to explore impacts of climate change on inuit health

Global climate change and its impact on public health exemplify the challenge of managing complexity and uncertainty in health research. The Canadian North is currently experiencing dramatic shifts in climate, resulting in environmental changes which impact Inuit livelihoods, cultural practices, and health. For researchers investigating potential climate change impacts on Inuit health, it has become clear that comprehensive and meaningful research outcomes depend on taking a systemic and transdisciplinary approach that engages local citizens in project design, data collection, and analysis. While it is increasingly recognised that using approaches that embrace complexity is a necessity in public health, mobilizing such approaches from theory into practice can be challenging. In 2009, the Rigolet Inuit Community Government in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada partnered with a transdisciplinary team of researchers, health practitioners, and community storytelling facilitators to create the Changing Climate, Changing Health, Changing Stories project, aimed at developing a multi-media participatory, community-run methodological strategy to gather locally appropriate and meaningful data to explore climate-health relationships. The goal of this profile paper is to describe how an EcoHealth approach guided by principles of transdisciplinarity, community participation, and social equity was used to plan and implement this climate-health research project. An overview of the project, including project development, research methods, project outcomes to date, and challenges encountered, is presented. Though introduced in this one case study, the processes, methods, and lessons learned are broadly applicable to researchers and communities interested in implementing EcoHealth approaches in community-based research.     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution.     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries - The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the...     

Ungulate browsing shapes climate change impacts on forest biodiversity in Hungary

Climate change can result in a slow disappearance of forests dominated by less drought-tolerant native European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and oak species (Quercus spp.) and further area expansion of more drought-tolerant non-native black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) against those species in Hungary. We assumed that the shift in plant species composition was modified by selective ungulate browsing. Thus, we investigated which woody species are selected by browsing game. We have collected data on the species composition of the understory and the browsing impact on it in five different Hungarian even-aged forests between 2003 and 2005. Based on these investigations the non-native Robinia pseudoacacia living under more favourable climatic conditions was generally preferred (Jacobs’ selectivity index: D = 0.04 ± 0.77), while the native Fagus sylvatica and Quercus spp. (Q. petraea, Q. robur), both more vulnerable to increasing aridity, were avoided (D = ?0.37 ± 0.11; ?0.79 ± 0.56; ?0.9 ± 0.16; respectively) among target tree species. However, economically less or not relevant species, e.g. elderberry (Sambucus spp.), blackberry (Rubus spp.) or common dogwood (Cornus sanguinea) were the most preferred species (D = 0.01 ± 0.71; ?0.12 ± 0.58; ?0.2 ± 0.78, respectively). Our results imply that biodiversity conservation, i.e. maintaining or establishing a multi-species understory layer, can be a good solution to reduce the additional negative game impact on native target tree species suffering from drought. Due to preference for Robinia pseudoacacia selective browsing can decelerate the penetration of this species into native forest habitats. We have to consider the herbivorous pressure of ungulates and their feeding preferences in planning our future multifunctional forests in the light of climate change impacts.