Local cattle and badger populations affect the risk of confirmed tuberculosis in British cattle herds

Background

The control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains a priority on the public health agenda in Great Britain, after launching in 1998 the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) to evaluate the effectiveness of badger (Meles meles) culling as a control strategy. Our study complements previous analyses of the RBCT data (focusing on treatment effects) by presenting analyses of herd-level risks factors associated with the probability of a confirmed bTB breakdown in herds within each treatment: repeated widespread proactive culling, localized reactive culling and no culling (survey-only).

Methodology/Principal Findings

New cases of bTB breakdowns were monitored inside the RBCT areas from the end of the first proactive badger cull to one year after the last proactive cull. The risk of a herd bTB breakdown was modeled using logistic regression and proportional hazard models adjusting for local farm-level risk factors. Inside survey-only and reactive areas, increased numbers of active badger setts and cattle herds within 1500 m of a farm were associated with an increased bTB risk. Inside proactive areas, the number of M. bovis positive badgers initially culled within 1500 m of a farm was the strongest predictor of the risk of a confirmed bTB breakdown.

Conclusions/Significance

The use of herd-based models provide insights into how local cattle and badger populations affect the bTB breakdown risks of individual cattle herds in the absence of and in the presence of badger culling. These measures of local bTB risks could be integrated into a risk-based herd testing programme to improve the targeting of interventions aimed at reducing the risks of bTB transmission.     

Spatial Targeting for Bovine Tuberculosis Control: Can the Locations of Infected Cattle Be Used to Find Infected Badgers?

Bovine tuberculosis is a disease of historical importance to human health in the UK that remains a major animal health and economic issue. Control of the disease in cattle is complicated by the presence of a reservoir species, the Eurasian badger. In spite of uncertainty in the degree to which cattle disease results from transmission from badgers, and opposition from environmental groups, culling of badgers has been licenced in two large areas in England. Methods to limit culls to smaller areas that target badgers infected with TB whilst minimising the number of uninfected badgers culled is therefore of considerable interest. Here, we use historical data from a large-scale field trial of badger culling to assess two alternative hypothetical methods of targeting TB-infected badgers based on the distribution of cattle TB incidents: (i) a simple circular ‘ring cull’; and (ii) geographic profiling, a novel technique for spatial targeting of infectious disease control that predicts the locations of sources of infection based on the distribution of linked cases. Our results showed that both methods required coverage of very large areas to ensure a substantial proportion of infected badgers were removed, and would result in many uninfected badgers being culled. Geographic profiling, which accounts for clustering of infections in badger and cattle populations, produced a small but non-significant increase in the proportion of setts with TB-infected compared to uninfected badgers included in a cull. It also provided no overall improvement at targeting setts with infected badgers compared to the ring cull. Cattle TB incidents in this study were therefore insufficiently clustered around TB-infected badger setts to design an efficient spatially targeted cull; and this analysis provided no evidence to support a move towards spatially targeted badger culling policies for bovine TB control.     

Effects of culling on badger abundance: implications for tuberculosis control

Culling is often considered as a tool for controlling wildlife diseases that can also infect people or livestock. Culling European badgers Meles meles can cause both positive and negative effects on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle. One factor likely to influence the outcome of different badger-culling strategies for cattle TB is the reduction in badger population density achieved. However, this reduction is difficult to measure because badgers, being nocturnal and fossorial, are difficult to count. Here, we use indices of badger abundance to measure the population impacts of two culling strategies tested in Britain. The densities of badger setts and latrines recorded before culling were correlated with the densities of badgers captured on initial culls, suggesting that both were indices of actual badger abundance. Widespread 'proactive' culling was associated with a 73% reduction in the density of badger latrines, a 69% reduction in the density of active burrows and a 73% reduction in the density of road-killed badgers. This population reduction was achieved by a coordinated effort entailing widespread and repeated trapping over several years. However, this strategy caused only modest reductions in cattle TB incidence in culled areas and elevated incidence in neighbouring unculled areas. Localized 'reactive' culling caused a 26% reduction in latrine density, a 32% reduction in active burrow density and a 10% reduction in the density of road-killed badgers, but apparently increased the incidence of cattle TB. These results indicate that the relationship between badger population reduction and TB transmission to cattle is strongly non-linear, probably because culling prompts changes in badger behaviour that influence transmission rates. These findings raise serious questions about the capacity of badger culling to contribute to the control of cattle TB in Britain.     

Genetic evidence that culling increases badger movement: implications for the spread of bovine tuberculosis

The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) has been implicated in the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB, caused by Mycobacterium bovis) to cattle. However, evidence suggests that attempts to reduce the spread of TB among cattle in Britain by culling badgers have mixed effects. A large-scale field experiment (the randomized badger culling trial, RBCT) showed that widespread proactive badger culling reduced the incidence of TB in cattle within culled areas but that TB incidence increased in adjoining areas. Additionally, localized reactive badger culling increased the incidence of TB in cattle. It has been suggested that culling-induced perturbation of badger social structure may increase individual movements and elevate the risk of disease transmission between badgers and cattle. Field studies support this hypothesis, by demonstrating increases in badger group ranges and the prevalence of TB infection in badgers following culling. However, more evidence on the effect of culling on badger movements is needed in order to predict the epidemiological consequences of this control strategy. Here, analysis of the genetic signatures of badger populations in the RBCT revealed increased dispersal following culling. While standard tests provided evidence for greater dispersal after culling, a novel method indicated that this was due to medium- and long-distance dispersal, in addition to previously reported increases in home-range size. Our results also indicated that, on average, badgers infected with M. bovis moved significantly farther than did uninfected badgers. A disease control strategy that included culling would need to take account of the potentially negative epidemiological consequences of increased badger dispersal.     

Culling-induced social perturbation in Eurasian badgers Meles meles and the management of TB in cattle: an analysis of a critical problem in applied ecology

The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is implicated in the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB) to cattle in the UK and Republic of Ireland. Badger culling has been employed for the control of TB in cattle in both countries, with varying results. Social perturbation of badger populations following culling has been proposed as an explanation for the failure of culling to consistently demonstrate significant reductions in cattle TB. Field studies indicate that culling badgers may result in increased immigration into culled areas, disruption of territoriality, increased ranging and mixing between social groups. Our analysis shows that some measures of sociality may remain significantly disrupted for up to 8 years after culling. This may have epidemiological consequences because previous research has shown that even in a relatively undisturbed badger population, movements between groups are associated with increases in the incidence of Mycobacterium bovis infection. This is consistent with the results from a large-scale field trial, which demonstrated decreased benefits of culling at the edges of culled areas, and an increase in herd breakdown rates in neighbouring cattle.     

Culling-induced changes in badger (Meles meles) behaviour, social organisation and the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis

In the UK, attempts since the 1970s to control the incidence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle by culling a wildlife host, the European badger (Meles meles), have produced equivocal results. Culling-induced social perturbation of badger populations may lead to unexpected outcomes. We test predictions from the 'perturbation hypothesis', determining the impact of culling operations on badger populations, movement of surviving individuals and the influence on the epidemiology of bTB in badgers using data dervied from two study areas within the UK Government's Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT). Culling operations did not remove all individuals from setts, with between 34-43% of badgers removed from targeted social groups. After culling, bTB prevalence increased in badger social groups neighbouring removals, particularly amongst cubs. Seventy individual adult badgers were fitted with radio-collars, yielding 8,311 locational fixes from both sites between November 2001 and December 2003. Home range areas of animals surviving within removed groups increased by 43.5% in response to culling. Overlap between summer ranges of individuals from Neighbouring social groups in the treatment population increased by 73.3% in response to culling. The movement rate of individuals between social groups was low, but increased after culling, in Removed and Neighbouring social groups. Increased bTB prevalence in Neighbouring groups was associated with badger movements both into and out of these groups, although none of the moving individuals themselves tested positive for bTB. Significant increases in both the frequency of individual badger movements between groups and the emergence of bTB were observed in response to culling. However, no direct evidence was found to link the two phenomena. We hypothesise that the social disruption caused by culling may not only increase direct contact and thus disease transmission between surviving badgers, but may also increase social stress within the surviving population, causing immunosuppression and enhancing the expression of disease.     

Weather influences trapping success for tuberculosis management in European badgers (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Meles meles</Emphasis>)

European badgers (Meles meles) in Ireland and the UK are a reservoir for Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB). A number of interventions have been evaluated in attempts to control bovine TB within badger populations, and many of which rely on the capture of badgers. One strategy being implemented within Ireland is intramuscular vaccination using Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), as an alternative to badger culling. The success of vaccination as a disease control strategy depends on the ability to capture badgers and administer vaccines; thus, trapping success is crucial to effectively vaccinate the population (maximize vaccine coverage). A field vaccine trial was conducted in County Kilkenny, Ireland, from 2010–2013. We used data from this trial to evaluate the association between weather (precipitation and temperature data), badger sett characteristics, and badger trapping success. Approximately 10% of capture efforts resulted in a badger capture. Our results indicate that badger captures were the highest in drizzle, rain, and heavy rain weather conditions, and when minimum temperatures ranged from 3–8 °C. Badger captures were the highest at main setts (large burrow systems), and when sett activity scores were high (qualitative classes 4 or 5). Using local precipitation and temperature data in conjunction with observed sett characteristics provides wildlife managers with guidelines to optimize trapping success. Implementing capture operations under optimal conditions should increase the trapping success of badgers and allow for increased delivery of vaccines to manage bovine TB.     

Comparing badger (Meles meles) management strategies for reducing tuberculosis incidence in cattle

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, continues to be a serious economic problem for the British cattle industry. The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is partly responsible for maintenance of the disease and its transmission to cattle. Previous attempts to manage the disease by culling badgers have been hampered by social perturbation, which in some situations is associated with increases in the cattle herd incidence of bTB. Following the licensing of an injectable vaccine, we consider the relative merits of management strategies to reduce bTB in badgers, and thereby reduce cattle herd incidence. We used an established simulation model of the badger-cattle-TB system and investigated four proposed strategies: business as usual with no badger management, large-scale proactive badger culling, badger vaccination, and culling with a ring of vaccination around it. For ease of comparison with empirical data, model treatments were applied over 150 km(2) and were evaluated over the whole of a 300 km(2) area, comprising the core treatment area and a ring of approximately 2 km. The effects of treatment were evaluated over a 10-year period comprising treatment for five years and the subsequent five year period without treatment. Against a background of existing disease control measures, where 144 cattle herd incidents might be expected over 10 years, badger culling prevented 26 cattle herd incidents while vaccination prevented 16. Culling in the core 150 km(2) plus vaccination in a ring around it prevented about 40 cattle herd breakdowns by partly mitigating the negative effects of culling, although this approach clearly required greater effort. While model outcomes were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimates, the outcomes of culling were sensitive to low rates of land access for culling, low culling efficacy, and the early cessation of a culling strategy, all of which were likely to lead to an overall increase in cattle disease.     

The Duration of the Effects of Repeated Widespread Badger Culling on Cattle Tuberculosis Following the Cessation of Culling

Background

In the British Isles, control of cattle tuberculosis (TB) is hindered by persistent infection of wild badger (Meles meles) populations. A large-scale field trial—the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT)—previously showed that widespread badger culling produced modest reductions in cattle TB incidence during culling, which were offset by elevated TB risks for cattle on adjoining lands. Once culling was halted, beneficial effects inside culling areas increased, while detrimental effects on adjoining lands disappeared. However, a full assessment of the utility of badger culling requires information on the duration of culling effects.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We monitored cattle TB incidence in and around RBCT areas after culling ended. We found that benefits inside culled areas declined over time, and were no longer detectable by three years post-culling. On adjoining lands, a trend suggesting beneficial effects immediately after the end of culling was insignificant, and disappeared after 18 months post-culling. From completion of the first cull to the loss of detectable effects (an average five-year culling period plus 2.5 years post-culling), cattle TB incidence was 28.7% lower (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.7 to 35.8% lower) inside ten 100 km² culled areas than inside ten matched no-culling areas, and comparable (11.7% higher, 95% CI: 13.0% lower to 43.4% higher, p  =  0.39) on lands ≤2 km outside culled and no-culling areas. The financial costs of culling an idealized 150 km² area would exceed the savings achieved through reduced cattle TB, by factors of 2 to 3.5.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings show that the reductions in cattle TB incidence achieved by repeated badger culling were not sustained in the long term after culling ended and did not offset the financial costs of culling. These results, combined with evaluation of alternative culling methods, suggest that badger culling is unlikely to contribute effectively to the control of cattle TB in Britain.     

Social organization and movement influence the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in an undisturbed high-density badger Meles meles population

1. The culling of European badgers Meles meles has been a central part of attempts to control bovine tuberculosis (TB) in British cattle for many years. Recent results, however, indicate that this approach could in practice enhance disease spread. 2. This paper looks at the relationship between TB incidence and badger ecology in a high-density population in south-west England, which has been the subject of a long-term intensive study. The principal aims were to relate the probability of TB incidence, as detected by culture of clinical samples (i.e. excretion of bacilli), at the level of the individual and of the social group to demographic processes, movement, social organization and disease dynamics. 3. The probability of an individual being an incident case was greater in groups where TB was already present, although this was less influential in groups that were subject to some instability in numbers. Both individuals and groups were more likely to be incident cases where the social group was diminishing in size, although no relationship was observed with group size itself. This suggests that the process of group size reduction rather than group size per se has most influence on disease dynamics. The likelihood that either an individual or a group was an incident case was positively correlated with both individual and group-level movement. When the proportion of females in a social group was high, the positive association between movement and incidence was found to be more pronounced and there was a significantly higher probability of incident cases among males. 4. These relationships highlight the importance of social structure in driving TB transmission dynamics in this stable, high-density badger population. The results support the idea that a stable social structure mitigates against new incident cases of disease, and are consistent with the contention that badger culling may create the social circumstances for enhanced transmission of TB.     

Optimising and Evaluating the Characteristics of a Multiple Antigen ELISA for Detection of Mycobacterium bovis Infection in a Badger Vaccine Field Trial

A long-term research programme has been underway in Ireland to evaluate the usefulness of badger vaccination as part of the national bTB (bovine tuberculosis) control strategy. This culminated in a field trial which commenced in county Kilkenny in 2009 to determine the effects of badger vaccination on Mycobacterium bovis transmission in badgers under field conditions. In the present study, we sought to optimise the characteristics of a multiplex chemiluminescent assay for detection of M. bovis infection in live badgers. Our goal was to maximise specificity, and therefore statistical power, during evaluation of the badger vaccine trial data. In addition, we also aimed to explore the effects of vaccination on test characteristics. For the test optimisation, we ran a stepwise logistic regression with analytical weights on the converted Relative Light Units (RLU) obtained from testing blood samples from 215 badgers captured as part of culling operations by the national Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM). The optimised test was applied to two other datasets obtained from two captive badger studies (Study 1 and Study 2), and the sensitivity and specificity of the test was attained separately for vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers. During optimisation, test sensitivity was maximised (30.77%), while retaining specificity at 99.99%. When the optimised test was then applied to the captive badger studies data, we observed that test characteristics did not vary greatly between vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers. However, a different time lag between infection and a positive test result was observed in vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers. We propose that the optimized multiplex immunoassay be used to analyse the vaccine trial data. In relation to the difference in the time lag observed for vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers, we also present a strategy to enable the test to be used during trial evaluation.     

Impact of culling on relative abundance of the European badger (Meles meles) in Ireland

The European Badger (Meles meles) has been implicated in the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis in cattle populations in the Republic of Ireland. Badger populations have been subject to a culling regime in areas with chronic histories of bTB cattle herd breakdowns. Removal data from 2004 to 2010 were used to model the impact of culling on populations in areas under capture. Additionally, changes in field signs of badger activity were used as an index of abundance to support, or otherwise, the outcomes of the removal models. Significant reductions in standardised badger captures over time were found across three large study areas (total area, 1,355 km²). Assuming that all inactive setts were vacant, an overall linear trend model suggested that badger captures had decreased by 78 % for setts with 6 years of repeated capturing operations. Given the uncertainty associated with the relationship between sett activity and badger presence, we repeated the linear modelling using two ‘what if’ scenarios. Assuming that individual badgers were missed on 10 % or 20 % of occasions at inactive setts, the estimated decline over 6 years is lowered to 71 % or 64 %, respectively. The decline profile consisted of a steep initial decrease in captures within the first 2 years, followed by a more gradual decrease thereafter. The number of active openings at setts (burrows) declined significantly in all three areas; but the magnitude of this decline varied significantly amongst study areas (41–82 %). There was a significant increase in the probability of setts becoming dormant with time. The removal programme was more intense (mean, 0.45 badgers culled km^?2 year^?1) than previous experimental badger removals in Ireland but some captures may be attributed to immigrant badgers as no attempt was made to limit inward dispersal from areas not under management. Results from this study suggest that significant reductions in badger density occurred in the areas where management had taken place. Since other non-culled badger populations in Northern Ireland and Britain exhibited stable population trends, we attribute the reduction in relative abundance to the culling regime. Further studies of the dynamics of this reduction are required to quantify how it is counteracted by immigration from populations outside of culled areas.     

Localized reactive badger culling increases risk of bovine tuberculosis in nearby cattle herds

Human and livestock diseases can be difficult to control where infection persists in wildlife populations. Control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in British cattle is complicated by the maintenance of Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bTB) in badgers, acting as reservoirs of infection. Although over 20 000 badgers were culled to control bTB between 1975 and 1997, the incidence of bTB in cattle has substantially increased in parts of Great Britain in recent decades. Our case-control study, involving 1208 cattle herds, provides further evidence of the detrimental effect of localized reactive badger culling in response to the disclosure of a confirmed bTB herd breakdown in cattle. The presence of any reactive badger culling activity and increased numbers of badgers culled in the vicinity of a herd were associated with significantly increased bTB risk, even after adjusting for other important local risk factors. Such findings may partly explain why some earlier localized approaches to bTB control were ineffective.     

Emergency rabies control in a community of two high-density hosts

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Rabies is a fatal viral disease that potentially can affect all mammals. Terrestrial rabies is not present in the United Kingdom and has been eliminated from Western Europe. Nevertheless the possibility remains that rabies could be introduced to England, where it would find two potentially suitable hosts, red foxes and badgers. With the aim to analyse the spread and emergency control of rabies in this two species host community, a simulation model was constructed. Different control strategies involving anti-rabies vaccination and population culling were developed, considering control application rates, spatial extent and timing. These strategies were evaluated for efficacy and feasibility to control rabies in hypothetical rural areas in the South of England immediately after a disease outbreak. RESULTS: The model confirmed that both fox and badger populations, separately, were competent hosts for the spread of rabies. Realistic vaccination levels were not sufficient to control rabies in high-density badger populations. The combined species community was a very strong rabies host. However, disease spread within species appeared to be more important than cross-species infection. Thus, the drivers of epidemiology depend on the potential of separate host species to sustain the disease. To control a rabies outbreak in the two species, both species had to be targeted. Realistic and robust control strategies involved vaccination of foxes and badgers, but also required badger culling. Although fox and badger populations in the UK are exceptionally dense, an outbreak of rabies can be controlled with a higher than 90% chance, if control response is quick and follows a strict regime. This requires surveillance and forceful and repeated control campaigns. In contrast, an uncontrolled rabies outbreak in the South of England would quickly develop into a strong epizootic involving tens of thousands of rabid foxes and badgers. CONCLUSIONS: If populations of both host species are sufficiently large, epizootics are driven by within-species transmission, while cross-species-infection appears to be of minor importance. Thus, the disease control strategy has to target both host populations.     

Modeling control of rabies outbreaks in red fox populations to evaluate culling,vaccination, and vaccination combined with fertility control

A predictive model of spread and control of rabies in red fox (Vulpes vulpes) populations was used to evaluate efficacy of culling, oral vaccination, and oral vaccination and fertility control (V + FC) as rabies control strategies. In addition, effects of season, fox population density, and a delay in starting control were modeled. At fox densities of 0.5 fox families/km2 or greater, a single oral vaccination campaign with bait uptake rates of less than 50% resulted in ineffective rabies control. An uptake rate of at least 80% was required to give a better than 80% chance of eliminating rabies. Vaccination was least effective at controlling rabies if applied 1 or 2 mo before the foxes gave birth. Seasonal timing of poison or V + FC had little effect on efficacy, which was always more successful than the oral vaccination alone. The longer the delay between the simulated start of the rabies infection and the application of a single vaccination campaign, the less successful was the control, particularly at the higher fox densities tested. At a fox density of 0.25 families/km2, all the strategies were equally successful at eliminating rabies. At higher fox densities V + FC was slightly less successful than culling, whereas vaccination-only was considerably less successful. The sole use of vaccination is not considered a viable control method for areas with high fox densities. The model suggests that an area of culling centered on the disease focus, plus an outer ring of vaccine or V + FC, could be the best strategy to control a point-source wildlife rabies outbreak.     

React or wait: which optimal culling strategy to control infectious diseases in wildlife

We applied optimal control theory to an SI epidemic model to identify optimal culling strategies for diseases management in wildlife. We focused on different forms of the objective function, including linear control, quadratic control, and control with limited amount of resources. Moreover, we identified optimal solutions under different assumptions on disease-free host dynamics, namely: self-regulating logistic growth, Malthusian growth, and the case of negligible demography. We showed that the correct characterization of the disease-free host growth is crucial for defining optimal disease control strategies. By analytical investigations of the model with negligible demography, we demonstrated that the optimal strategy for the linear control can be either to cull at the maximum rate at the very beginning of the epidemic (reactive culling) when the culling cost is low, or never to cull, when culling cost is high. On the other hand, in the cases of quadratic control or limited resources, we demonstrated that the optimal strategy is always reactive. Numerical analyses for hosts with logistic growth showed that, in the case of linear control, the optimal strategy is always reactive when culling cost is low. In contrast, if the culling cost is high, the optimal strategy is to delay control, i.e. not to cull at the onset of the epidemic. Finally, we showed that for diseases with the same basic reproduction number delayed control can be optimal for acute infections, i.e. characterized by high disease-induced mortality and fast dynamics, while reactive control can be optimal for chronic ones.     

Reports on badgers Meles meles in Dutch newspapers 1900–2013: same animals,different framings?

相似文献   

A comparison of fertility control and lethal control of bovine tuberculosis in badgers: the impact of perturbation induced transmission.

In this paper we use mathematical modelling to consider the broad advantages and disadvantages of fertility control over lethal control for bovine tuberculosis in badger populations. We use a deliberately simple model, attempting to capture only the key transmission processes. The model is parametrized with reference to the long-term Woodchester Park study. Estimates of mortality rate from this study suggest no significant extra mortality risk for animals with evidence of infection as indicated by the presence of anti-Mycobacterium bovis antibodies or M. bovis isolation. We find that large reductions in prevalence are sometimes the consequence of only moderate reductions in population numbers. If we assume that the act of control does not in itself affect transmission rates, then as far as eradication is concerned, both fertility control and mortality control operate through the same epidemiological mechanism, the removal of susceptibles: if one is in principle capable of keeping a population low enough to be infection free then so is the other. It is necessary to continue either form of control at regular intervals to maintain a constant level of infection in the long term. If control were to be stopped, return to precontrol levels of badger population and infection prevalence would be expected within a few years. Fertility control is less effective in reducing population density than lethal control since it can only act, at maximum, to remove one age cohort per year. It is also less effective in reducing transmission as it can only ever remove susceptibles, while lethal control also removes infectious badgers. However, if the social disturbance caused by lethal control does in fact increase contact rates for the remaining infectious badgers, the relative efficacies of the two strategies become a great deal less clear. While we have no quantitative data on the extent to which social perturbation does act to promote transmission, model simulations show that it is possible to develop plausible scenarios in which the lethal control may actually act to increase the absolute numbers of animals infected, while reducing the number of uninfected animals to very low numbers.     

Sterilization as an alternative strategy to control wildlife diseases: bovine tuberculosis in European badgers as a case study

Sterilization has rarely been considered as an alternative to culling or vaccination to control wildlife diseases. Disease control by sterilization, as by culling, has most promise when the host'ss ability for compensatory growth following the removal of density-dependent inhibitions is limited, and when moderate reductions in population density cause disproportionately large reductions in disease prevalence, or even eliminate the disease. For many host/disease examples this will not be the case and vaccination may have overwhelming advantages or may be the only practical option. The impact of sterilization on host density and disease prevalence will develop relatively slowly because sterilization can prevent the recruitment of only one age-cohort at a time. Moreover, unless there is vertical transmission, this age-cohort will consist only of susceptibles. Culling, on the contrary, removes infected as well as susceptible animals. However, for certain disease/host examples, the r elative effectiveness of the different control strategies may be altered considerably if their variable effects on the probability of disease transmission are taken into account. Social perturbation or stress could render certain culling strategies ineffective or even counter-productive. Depending on how disease dynamics are influenced by the host'ss age-structure and reproductive investment, fertility control could offer epidemiological advantages that have been ignored by most disease/host models. We illustrate some of these principles by investigating the theoretical and practical feasibility of an hypothetical sterilization campaign to control bovine tuberculosis in badgers (and hence cattle) in Britain.