The environmental implications of intensified land use in developing countries

The major agricultural intensifications in the developed world over the last half century have produced a range of important environmental problems. These include pollution, damage to wildlife and landscape and other issues, both on- and off-site. These are largely being controlled by scientific investigation and Government regulation. As developing countries increase agricultural production over the next 30 years, this may also cause even more serious environmental damage.<br>The paper distinguishes between production-related on-site damage, and off-site and more extensive effects. Both may involve soil and water effects, such as soil erosion, salinization, siltation, eutrophication and loss of water quality. The use of more agrochemicals can damage water quality, health, wildlife and biodiversity. Loss of habitat from the extension of farming is particularly damaging to biodiversity. A developing off-site problem is the production of greenhouse gases by farming systems, including the conversion of forests to farmland. In the future the introduction of genetically engineered species of plants, animals or microbes will need secure control.<br>Work, probably on a catchment basis, is necessary to understand and control these problems. The three main requirements are much better environmental information from the developing world; the selection of environmental indicators to be monitored; and the support of local farmers in protecting the environment. There are encouraging indications of farmer concern and action over obvious on-site damage, but this may not extend to extensive off-site issues. The main danger is that developing food scarcity would cause the environmental issues to be ignored in a race for production. <br>     

Interactions between plant nutrients,water and carbon dioxide as factors limiting crop yields

Biomass production of annual crops is often directly proportional to the amounts of radiation intercepted, water transpired and nutrients taken up. In many places the amount of rainfall during the period of rapid crop growth is less than the potential rate of evaporation, so that depletion of stored soil water is commonplace. The rate of mineralization of nitrogen (N) from organic matter and the processes of nutrient loss are closely related to the availability of soil water. Results from Kenya indicate the rapid changes in nitrate availability following rain.<br>Nutrient supply has a large effect on the quantity of radiation intercepted and hence, biomass production. There is considerable scope for encouraging canopy expansion to conserve water by reducing evaporation from the soil surface in environments where it is frequently rewetted, and where the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil is sufficient to supply water at the energy limited rate (e.g. northern Syria). In regions with high evaporative demand and coarse-textured soils (e.g. Niger), transpiration may be increased by management techniques that reduce drainage.<br>Increases in atmospheric [CO₂] are likely to have only a small impact on crop yields when allowance is made for the interacting effects of temperature, and water and nutrient supply. <br>     

Managing soils for long-term productivity

Meeting the goal of long-term agricultural productivity requires that soil degradation be halted and reversed. Soil fertility decline is a key factor in soil degradation and is probably the major cause of declining crop yields. There is evidence that the contribution of declining soil fertility to soil degradation has been underestimated. <br>Sensitivity to soil degradation is implicit in the assessment of the sustainability of land management practices, with wide recognition of the fact that soils vary in their ability to resist change and recover subsequent to stress. The concept of resilience in relation to sustainability requires further elaboration and evaluation.<br>In the context of soil degradation, a decline in soil fertility is primarily interpreted as the depletion of organic matter and plant nutrients. Despite a higher turnover rate of organic matter in the tropics there is no intrinsic difference between the organic matter content of soils from tropical and temperate regions. The level of organic matter in a soil is closely related to the above and below ground inputs. In the absence of adequate organic material inputs and where cultivation is continuous, soil organic matter declines progressively. Maintaining the quantity and quality of soil organic matter should be a guiding principle in developing management practices.<br>Soil microbial biomass serves as an important reservoir of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and sulphur (S), and regulates the cycling of organic matter and nutrients. Because of its high turnover rate, microbial biomass reacts quickly to changes in management and is a sensitive indicator for monitoring and predicting changes in soil organic matter. Modelling techniques have been reasonably successful in predicting changes in soil organic matter with different organic material inputs, but there is little information from the tropics. <br>Nutrient depletion through harvested crop components and residue removal, and by leaching and soil erosion accentuates the often very low inherent fertility of many soils in the tropics. An integrated approach involving inorganic and organic inputs is required where animal and plant residues are returned, as far as practicable. Chemical fertilizers alone cannot achieve long-term productivity on many soils and organic material inputs are required to maintain soil organic matter levels and crop productivity. A major research effort is required to develop improved strategies for halting and reversing soil degradation if long-term productivity is to be secured. <br>     

Adapting and improving crops: the endless task

The Malthusian prognosis has been undermined by an exponential increase in world food supply since 1960, even in the absence of any extension of the arable area. The requisite increases in yield of the cereal staples have come partly from agronomic intensification, especially of nitrogenous fertilizer use made possible by the dwarfing of wheat and rice, in turn made feasible by herbicide development. Cereal dwarfing also contributed to a marked rise in harvest index and yield potential.<br>Although there is still scope for some further improvement in harvest index and environmental adaptation, it is not apparent how a doubling of yield potential can be achieved unless crop photosynthesis can be substantially enhanced by genetic engineering. Empirical selection for yield has not enhanced photosynthetic capacity to date, but nitrogenous and other fertilizers have done so, and there is still scope for agronomic increases in yield and for new synergisms between agronomy and plant breeding. <br>     

Nutrient resources for crop production in the tropics

For the foreseeable future a majority of the population, and almost all the mal- and under-nourished, will continue to be found in the tropics and subtropics. Food security in these parts of the world will have to be met largely from local resources. The productivity of the land is to a large extent determined by the fertlity of the soil, which in turn is mostly determined by its organic matter content and stored nutrients. Soil organic matter is readily lost when organic matter inputs are reduced upon cultivation and more so upon intensification. The concomitant loss of topsoil and possible exposure of subsoil acidity may cause further soil degradation.<br>Plant nutrients to replenish what is yearly taken from the soil to meet the demands for food and fibre amount to 230 million tonnes (Mt). Current fertilizer consumption stands at about 130 Mt of N, P₂O₅,and K₂O, supplemented by an estimated 90 Mt of N from biological nitrogen fixation worldwide. Although 80 per cent of the population lives in the developing world, only half the world''s fertilizer is consumed there. Yet, as much as 50% of the increase in agricultural productivity in the developing world is due to the adoption of fertilizers. World population growth will cause a doubling in these nutrients requirements for the developing world by 2020, which, in the likely case of inadequate production, will need to be met from soil reserves. Because expansion of the cultivable land area is reaching its limits, the reliance on nutrient inputs and their efficient use is bound to grow.<br>With current urban expansion, nutrients in harvested products are increasingly lost from the rural environment as a whole. Estimates of soil nutrient depletion rates for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are alarmingly high. The situation may be more favourable in Latin America and Asia where fertilizer inputs are tenfold those of SSA. Closing the nutrient cycle at a community level in rural areas may be tedious; on an inter-regional level it is associated with considerable costs of collection, detoxification and transportation to the farms. Yet, at the rate at which some of the non-renewable resources such as phosphorus and potassium are being exploited, recycling of these nutrients will soon be required. <br>     

Managing water resources for crop production

Increasing crop production to meet the food requirements of the world''s growing population will put great pressure on global water resources. Given that the vast freshwater resources that are available in the world are far from fully exploited, globally there should be sufficient water for future agricultural requirements. However, there are large areas where low water supply and high human demand may lead to regional shortages of water for future food production. In these arid and semi-arid areas, where water is a major constraint on production, improving water resource management is crucial if Malthusian disasters are to be avoided. There is considerable scope for improvement, since in both dryland and irrigated agriculture only about one-third of the available water (as rainfall, surface, or groundwater) is used to grow useful plants. This paper illustrates a range of techniques that could lead to increased crop production by improving agricultural water use efficiency. This may be achieved by increasing the total amount of water available to plants or by increasing the efficiency with which that water is used to produce biomass. Although the crash from the Malthusian precipice may ultimately be inevitable if population growth is not addressed, the time taken to reach the edge of the precipice could be lengthened by more efficient use of existing water resources. <br>     

Genotype-environment interactions for insect growth in constant and fluctuating temperature regimes

Experiments on life history genetics are usually performed using constant temperature environments in the laboratory. However, the dynamics of insect growth can be influenced profoundly by daily fluctuations in temperature such as those which characterize field environments. We report here on experiments using different stocks and selected lines of a tropical butterfly, Bicyclus anynana, to examine whether genotype-environment interactions occur for three traits describing pre-adult growth. These traits were measured over two pairs of environments differing in mean temperature, each of which had a constant, and a cycling temperature regime. Development time, pupal weight and growth rate show genotype-environment interactions, especially at comparatively low average temperatures. Researchers should, therefore, take care when extrapolating from the form of genetic covariance matrices and ''trade-offs'' among life history traits found in constant temperature environments to those likely to occur in nature. <br>     

The economic determinants of land degradation in developing countries

The following paper investigates the economic determinants of land degradation in developing countries. The main trends examined are rural households'' decisions to degrade as opposed to conserve land resources, and the expansion of frontier agricultural activity that contributes to forest and marginal land conversion. These two phenomena appear often to be linked. In many developing areas, a poor rural household''s decision whether to undertake long-term investment in improving existing agricultural land must be weighed against the decision to abandon this land and migrate to environmentally fragile areas. Economic factors play a critical role in determining these relationships. Poverty, imperfect capital markets and insecure land tenure may reinforce the tendency towards short-term time horizons in production decisions, and may bias land use decisions against long-term land management strategies. In periods of commodity booms and land speculation, wealthier households generally take advantage of their superior political and market power to ensure initial access to better quality resources, in order to capture a larger share of the resource rents. Poorer households are confined either to marginal environmental areas where resource rents are limited, or only have access to resources once they are degraded and rents dissipated.<br>Overall trends in land degradation and deforestation are examined, followed by an overview of rural households'' resource management decisions with respect to land management, frontier agricultural expansion, and migration from existing agricultural land to frontiers. Finally, the discussion focuses on the scope for policy improvements to reduce economic constraints to effective land management. <br>     

Sampling Citrus Fibrous Roots and Tylenchulus semipenetrans

Sampling precision was investigated for Tylenchulus semipenetrans juveniles and males in soil and females from roots and for citrus fibrous root mass density. For the case of two composite samples of 15 cores each, counts of juvenile and male nematodes were estimated to be within 40% of μ, at P < 0.06 (α) in orchards where $\bar{x}$ > 1,500 nematodes/100 cm³ soil. A similar level of α was estimated for measurements of fibrous root mass density, but at a precision level of 25% of μ. Densities of female nematodes were estimated with less precision than juveniles and males. Precision estimates from a general sample plan derived from Taylor''s Power Law were in good agreement with estimates from individual orchards. Two aspects involved in deriving sampling plans for management advisory purposes were investigated. A minimum of five to six preliminary samples were required to appreciably reduce bias toward underestimation of σ. The use of a Student''s t value rather than a standard normal deviate in formulae to estimate sample size increased the estimates by an average of three units. Cases in which the use of z rather than Student''s t is appropriate for these formulae are discussed.     

Meeting water requirements of an expanding world population

Water availability in the root zone (green water) is a critical component of plant production, but is often deficient in many Third World regions. When deficient, runoff water (blue water) can be added. Focusing on ten physiographic regions in Africa and Asia, characterized by mainly or partly dry climates and rapid population growth, this study analyses whether in a 30-years'' perspective enough blue water could be provided to allow food self-sufficiency. It is assumed that for food self-sufficiency some 900 cubic metres of water per person per year has to be provided. In judging the realism it is assumed that a maximum 25 per cent increase in water mobilization rate would be manageable in a 30-year period. The study suggests that by 2025, water scarcity will make regions populated by some 55 per cent of the world''s population dependent on food imports. For water-wasting regions in Central Asia, water saving might, however, free the water needed. The paper closes by proposing some urgent measures. <br>     

Potential and attainable food production and food security in different regions

Growing prosperity in the South is accompanied by human diets that will claim more natural resources per capita. This reality, combined with growing populations, may raise the global demand for food crops two- to four-fold within two generations. Considering the large volume of natural resources and potential crop yields, it seems that this demand can be met smoothly. However, this is a fallacy for the following reasons. (i) Geographic regions differ widely in their potential food security: policy choices for agricultural use of natural resources are limited in Asia. For example, to ensure national self-sufficiency and food security, most of the suitable land (China) and nearly all of the surface water (India) are needed. Degradation restricts options further. (ii) The attainable level of agricultural production depends also on socio-economic conditions. Extensive poverty keeps the attainable food production too low to achieve food security, even when the yield gap is wide, as in Africa. (iii) Bio-energy, non-food crops and nature compete with food crops for natural resources. Global and regional food security are attainable, but only with major efforts. Strategies to achieve alternative aims will be discussed. <br>     

β-Diversity and Species Accumulation in Antarctic Coastal Benthos: Influence of Habitat,Distance and Productivity on Ecological Connectivity

High Antarctic coastal marine environments are comparatively pristine with strong environmental gradients, which make them important places to investigate biodiversity relationships. Defining how different environmental features contribute to shifts in β-diversity is especially important as these shifts reflect both spatio-temporal variations in species richness and the degree of ecological separation between local and regional species pools. We used complementary techniques (species accumulation models, multivariate variance partitioning and generalized linear models) to assess how the roles of productivity, bio-physical habitat heterogeneity and connectivity change with spatial scales from metres to 100''s of km. Our results demonstrated that the relative importance of specific processes influencing species accumulation and β–diversity changed with increasing spatial scale, and that patterns were never driven by only one factor. Bio-physical habitat heterogeneity had a strong influence on β-diversity at scales <290 km, while the effects of productivity were low and significant only at scales >40 km. Our analysis supports the emphasis on the analysis of diversity relationships across multiple spatial scales and highlights the unequal connectivity of individual sites to the regional species pool. This has important implications for resilience to habitat loss and community homogenisation, especially for Antarctic benthic communities where rates of recovery from disturbance are slow, there is a high ratio of poor-dispersing and brooding species, and high biogenic habitat heterogeneity and spatio-temporal variability in primary production make the system vulnerable to disturbance. Consequently, large areas need to be included within marine protected areas for effective management and conservation of these special ecosystems in the face of increasing anthropogenic disturbance.     

Closing remarks

Closing remarks to Human genetics - uncertainties and the financial implications ahead. A Discussion held at the Royal Society on 25 and 26 September 1996, and organized and edited by R. M. Anderson. <br>     

Population Size and Distribution of Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii in Relation to Total Soil Bacteria and Soil Depth

Bacterial cells small enough to pass through 0.4-μm-pore-size filters made up 5 to 9% of the indigenous bacterial population in 0- to 20-cm-depth samples of Abiqua silty clay loam. Within the same soil samples, cells of a similar dimension were stained with fluorescent antibodies specific to each of four antigenically distinct indigenous serogroups of Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii and made up 22 to 34% of the soil population of the four serogroups. Despite the extensive contribution of small cells to these soil populations, no evidence of their being capable of either growth or nodulation was obtained. The density of soil bacteria which could be cultured ranged between 0.5 and 8.5% of the >0.4-μm direct count regardless of media, season of sampling, or soil depth. In the same soil samples, the viable nodulating populations of biovar trifolii determined by the plant infection soil dilution technique ranged between 1 and 10% of the >0.4-μm direct-immunofluorescence count of biovar trifolii. The <0.4-μm cell populations of both total soil bacteria and biovar trifolii changed abruptly between the 10- to 15-cm and 15- to 20-cm soil depth increments, increasing from 5 to 20% and from 20 to 50%, respectively, of their direct-count totals. The increase in density of the small-cell population corresponded to a significant increase in soil bulk density (1.07 to 1.21 g cm⁻³). The percent contribution of the <0.4-μm direct count to individual serogroup totals increased with soil depth by approximately 2-fold (39 to 87%) for serogroups 17 and 21 and by 12-fold (6 to 75%) for serogroups 6 and 36.     

Evolution of mixed maturation strategies in semelparous life histories: the crucial role of dimensionality of feedback environment

We study the evolution of age at maturity in a semelparous life history with two age classes. An individual may either breed in the first year of its life and die, or delay breeding to the second year. In this setting a mixed strategy means that a fraction of the individual''s offspring breed in the first possible breeding event, while the remaining fraction delay breeding. Current theory seems to imply that mixed strategies are not evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) under a steady-state population dynamical regime. We show that a two-dimensional feedback environment may allow the evolution of mixed age at maturity. Furthermore, different phenotypes need to perceive the environment differently. The biological reasoning behind these conditions is different resource usage or predation pressure between two age classes. Thus, the conventional explanations for the occurrence of mixed strategies in natural populations, environmental stochasticity or complex dynamics, are not needed. <br>     

What do hospital consultants value about their jobs? A discrete choice experiment

Objective To examine the strength of hospital consultants'' preferences for various aspects of their work.Design Questionnaire survey including a discrete choice experiment.Setting NHS Scotland.Participants 2923 hospital consultants in Scotland.Main outcome measures Monetary valuations or prices for each job characteristic, based on consultants'' willingness to pay and willingness to accept extra income for a change in each job characteristic, calculated from regression coefficients.Results The response rate was 61% (1793 resspondents). Being on call was the most important attribute, as consultants would need to be compensated up to £18 000 (30% of their average net income) (P < 0.001) for a high on-call workload. Compensation of up to £9700 (16% of their net income) (P < 0.001) would be required for consultants to forgo opportunities to undertake non-NHS work. Consultants would be willing to accept £7000 (12% of net income) (P < 0.001) in compensation for fair rather than good working relationships with staff, and £6500 (11% of net income) (P < 0.001) to compensate them for a shortage of staff. The least important characteristic was hours of work, with £562 per year (0.9% of their net income) (P < 0.001) required to induce consultants to work one extra hour per week. These preferences also varied among specific subgroups of consultants.Conclusions Important information on consultants'' strength of preferences for characteristics of their job should be used to help to address recruitment and retention problems. Consultants would require increased payment to cover more intensive on-call commitments. Other aspects of working conditions would require smaller increases.     

Population momentum and the demand on land and water resources

Future world population growth is fuelled by two components: the demographic momentum, which is built into the age composition of current populations, and changes in reproductive behaviour and mortality of generations yet to come. This paper investigates, by major world regions and countries, what we know about population growth, what can be projected with reasonable certainty, and what is pure speculation. The exposition sets a frame for analysing demographic driving forces that are expected to increase human demand and pressures on land and water resources. These have been contrasted with current resource assessments of regional availability and use of land, in particular with estimates of remaining land with cultivation potential. In establishing a balance between availabilty of land resources and projected needs, the paper distinguishes regions with limited land and water resources and high population pressure from areas with abundant resources and low or moderate demographic demand. Overall, it is estimated that two-thirds of the remaining balance of land with rainfed cultivation potential is currently covered by various forest ecosystems and wetlands. The respective percentages by region vary between 23% in Southern Africa to 89% in South-Eastern Asia. For Latin America and Asia the estimated share of the balance of land with cultivation potential under forest and wetland ecosystems is about 70%, in Africa this is about 60%. If these were to be preserved, the remaining balance of land with some potential for rainfed crop cultivation would amount to some 550 million hectares. The regions which will experience the largest difficulties in meeting future demand for land resources and water, or alternatively have to cope with much increased dependency on external supplies, include foremost Western Asia, South-Central Asia, and Northern Africa. A large stress on resources is to be expected also in many countries of Eastern, Western and Southern Africa <br>     

Trees,soils, and food security

Trees have a different impact on soil properties than annual crops, because of their longer residence time, larger biomass accumulation, and longer-lasting, more extensive root systems. In natural forests nutrients are efficiently cycled with very small inputs and outputs from the system. In most agricultural systems the opposite happens. Agroforestry encompasses the continuum between these extremes, and emerging hard data is showing that successful agroforestry systems increase nutrient inputs, enhance internal flows, decrease nutrient losses and provide environmental benefits: when the competition for growth resources between the tree and the crop component is well managed. The three main determinants for overcoming rural poverty in Africa are (i) reversing soil fertility depletion, (ii) intensifying and diversifying land use with high-value products, and (iii) providing an enabling policy environment for the smallholder farming sector. Agroforestry practices can improve food production in a sustainable way through their contribution to soil fertility replenishment. The use of organic inputs as a source of biologically-fixed nitrogen, together with deep nitrate that is captured by trees, plays a major role in nitrogen replenishment. The combination of commercial phosphorus fertilizers with available organic resources may be the key to increasing and sustaining phosphorus capital. High-value trees, ''Cinderella'' species, can fit in specific niches on farms, thereby making the system ecologically stable and more rewarding economically, in addition to diversifying and increasing rural incomes and improving food security. In the most heavily populated areas of East Africa, where farm size is extremely small, the number of trees on farms is increasing as farmers seek to reduce labour demands, compatible with the drift of some members of the family into the towns to earn off-farm income. Contrary to the concept that population pressure promotes deforestation, there is evidence that demonstrates that there are conditions under which increasing tree planting is occurring on farms in the tropics through successful agroforestry as human population density increases. <br>     

A model for leaf initiation: Determination of phyllotaxis by waves in the generative circle

A biophysical model is proposed for how leaf primordia are positioned on the shoot apical<br /> meristem in both spiral and whorl phyllotaxes. Primordia are initiated by signals that propagate<br /> in the epidermis in both azimuthal directions away from the cotyledons or the most recently<br /> specified primordia. The signals are linear waves as inferred from the spatial periodicity of the<br /> divergence angle and a temporal periodicity. The periods of the waves, which represent actively<br /> transported auxin, are much smaller than the plastochron interval. Where oppositely directed<br /> waves meet at one or more angular positions on the periphery of the generative circle, auxin<br /> concentration builds and as in most models this stimulates local movement of auxin to<br /> underlying cells, where it promotes polarized cell division and expansion. For higher order<br /> spirals the wave model requires asymmetric function of auxin transport; that is, opposite wave<br /> speeds differ. An algorithm for determination of the angular positions of leaves in common leaf<br /> phyllotaxic configurations is proposed. The number of turns in a pattern repeat, number of leaves<br /> per level and per pattern repeat, and divergence angle are related to speed of auxin transport and<br /> radius of the generative circle. The rule for composition of Fibonacci or Lucas numbers<br /> associated with some phyllotaxes is discussed. A subcellular model suggests how the shoot<br /> meristem might specify either symmetric or asymmetric transport of auxin away from the<br /> forming primordia that produce it. Biological tests that could make or break the mathematical<br /> and molecular hypotheses are proposed.     

Evidence that gestation duration and lactation duration are coupled traits in primates

Gestation duration and lactation duration are usually treated as independently evolving traits in primates, but the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) suggests both durations should be determined by metabolic rate. We used phylogenetic generalized least-squares linear regression to test these different perspectives. We found that the allometries of the durations are divergent from each other and different from the scaling exponent predicted by the MTE (0.25). Gestation duration increases much more slowly (0.06 < m < 0.12), and lactation duration much more quickly (0.36 < m < 0.52) with body mass than the MTE predicts. By contrast, we found that the combined duration of gestation and lactation is consistent with the MTE''s predictions (0.22 < m < 0.35). These results suggest that gestation duration and lactation duration might best be viewed as distinct but coupled adaptations. When transferring energy to their offspring, primate mothers must meet metabolically dictated physiological requirements while optimizing the timing of the switch from gestation to lactation in relation to some as-yet-unidentified body-size-related factor.