Population momentum and the demand on land and water resources

Future world population growth is fuelled by two components: the demographic momentum, which is built into the age composition of current populations, and changes in reproductive behaviour and mortality of generations yet to come. This paper investigates, by major world regions and countries, what we know about population growth, what can be projected with reasonable certainty, and what is pure speculation. The exposition sets a frame for analysing demographic driving forces that are expected to increase human demand and pressures on land and water resources. These have been contrasted with current resource assessments of regional availability and use of land, in particular with estimates of remaining land with cultivation potential. In establishing a balance between availabilty of land resources and projected needs, the paper distinguishes regions with limited land and water resources and high population pressure from areas with abundant resources and low or moderate demographic demand. Overall, it is estimated that two-thirds of the remaining balance of land with rainfed cultivation potential is currently covered by various forest ecosystems and wetlands. The respective percentages by region vary between 23% in Southern Africa to 89% in South-Eastern Asia. For Latin America and Asia the estimated share of the balance of land with cultivation potential under forest and wetland ecosystems is about 70%, in Africa this is about 60%. If these were to be preserved, the remaining balance of land with some potential for rainfed crop cultivation would amount to some 550 million hectares. The regions which will experience the largest difficulties in meeting future demand for land resources and water, or alternatively have to cope with much increased dependency on external supplies, include foremost Western Asia, South-Central Asia, and Northern Africa. A large stress on resources is to be expected also in many countries of Eastern, Western and Southern Africa <br>     

Potential and attainable food production and food security in different regions

Growing prosperity in the South is accompanied by human diets that will claim more natural resources per capita. This reality, combined with growing populations, may raise the global demand for food crops two- to four-fold within two generations. Considering the large volume of natural resources and potential crop yields, it seems that this demand can be met smoothly. However, this is a fallacy for the following reasons. (i) Geographic regions differ widely in their potential food security: policy choices for agricultural use of natural resources are limited in Asia. For example, to ensure national self-sufficiency and food security, most of the suitable land (China) and nearly all of the surface water (India) are needed. Degradation restricts options further. (ii) The attainable level of agricultural production depends also on socio-economic conditions. Extensive poverty keeps the attainable food production too low to achieve food security, even when the yield gap is wide, as in Africa. (iii) Bio-energy, non-food crops and nature compete with food crops for natural resources. Global and regional food security are attainable, but only with major efforts. Strategies to achieve alternative aims will be discussed. <br>     

Managing water resources for crop production

Increasing crop production to meet the food requirements of the world''s growing population will put great pressure on global water resources. Given that the vast freshwater resources that are available in the world are far from fully exploited, globally there should be sufficient water for future agricultural requirements. However, there are large areas where low water supply and high human demand may lead to regional shortages of water for future food production. In these arid and semi-arid areas, where water is a major constraint on production, improving water resource management is crucial if Malthusian disasters are to be avoided. There is considerable scope for improvement, since in both dryland and irrigated agriculture only about one-third of the available water (as rainfall, surface, or groundwater) is used to grow useful plants. This paper illustrates a range of techniques that could lead to increased crop production by improving agricultural water use efficiency. This may be achieved by increasing the total amount of water available to plants or by increasing the efficiency with which that water is used to produce biomass. Although the crash from the Malthusian precipice may ultimately be inevitable if population growth is not addressed, the time taken to reach the edge of the precipice could be lengthened by more efficient use of existing water resources. <br>     

From Food Insufficiency towards Trade Dependency: A Historical Analysis of Global Food Availability

Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965–2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d) has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (<2000 kcal/cap/d) has dropped from 52% to 3%. Largest improvements are seen in the MENA region, Latin America, China and Southeast Asia. Besides, the composition of diets has changed considerably within the study period: the world population living with high supply of animal source food (>15% of dietary energy supply) increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d) has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.     

Nutrient resources for crop production in the tropics

For the foreseeable future a majority of the population, and almost all the mal- and under-nourished, will continue to be found in the tropics and subtropics. Food security in these parts of the world will have to be met largely from local resources. The productivity of the land is to a large extent determined by the fertlity of the soil, which in turn is mostly determined by its organic matter content and stored nutrients. Soil organic matter is readily lost when organic matter inputs are reduced upon cultivation and more so upon intensification. The concomitant loss of topsoil and possible exposure of subsoil acidity may cause further soil degradation.<br>Plant nutrients to replenish what is yearly taken from the soil to meet the demands for food and fibre amount to 230 million tonnes (Mt). Current fertilizer consumption stands at about 130 Mt of N, P₂O₅,and K₂O, supplemented by an estimated 90 Mt of N from biological nitrogen fixation worldwide. Although 80 per cent of the population lives in the developing world, only half the world''s fertilizer is consumed there. Yet, as much as 50% of the increase in agricultural productivity in the developing world is due to the adoption of fertilizers. World population growth will cause a doubling in these nutrients requirements for the developing world by 2020, which, in the likely case of inadequate production, will need to be met from soil reserves. Because expansion of the cultivable land area is reaching its limits, the reliance on nutrient inputs and their efficient use is bound to grow.<br>With current urban expansion, nutrients in harvested products are increasingly lost from the rural environment as a whole. Estimates of soil nutrient depletion rates for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are alarmingly high. The situation may be more favourable in Latin America and Asia where fertilizer inputs are tenfold those of SSA. Closing the nutrient cycle at a community level in rural areas may be tedious; on an inter-regional level it is associated with considerable costs of collection, detoxification and transportation to the farms. Yet, at the rate at which some of the non-renewable resources such as phosphorus and potassium are being exploited, recycling of these nutrients will soon be required. <br>     

How to save the rarest Darwin's finch from extinction: the mangrove finch on Isabela Island

Habitat destruction and predation by invasive alien species has led to the disappearance of several island populations of Darwin''s finches but to date none of the 13 recognized species have gone extinct. However, driven by rapid economic growth in the Galápagos, the effects of introduced species have accelerated and severely threatened these iconic birds. The critically endangered mangrove finch (Camarhynchus heliobates) is now confined to three small mangroves on Isabela Island. During 2006–2009, we assessed its population status and monitored nesting success, both before and after rat poisoning. Population size was estimated at around only 100 birds for the two main breeding sites, with possibly 5–10 birds surviving at a third mangrove. Before rat control, 54 per cent of nests during incubation phase were predated with only 18 per cent of nests producing fledglings. Post-rat control, nest predation during the incubation phase fell to 30 per cent with 37 per cent of nests producing fledglings. During the nestling phase, infestation by larvae of the introduced parasitic fly (Philornis downsi) caused 14 per cent additional mortality. Using population viability analysis, we simulated the probability of population persistence under various scenarios of control and showed that with effective management of these invasive species, mangrove finch populations should start to recover.     

Microdensitometric measures of cytoplasmic RNA and total protein in pyramidal neurons of the insular cortex and midfrontal gyrus in patients with Alzheimer's disease

Scanning and integrating microdensitometry of azure B- and Coomassie brilliant blue G-stained tissue sections was used to measure the levels of RNA and protein, respectively, in pyramidal neurons of the insular cortex (INS) and midfrontal gyrus (MFG) in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and age-matched, nondemented control subjects. AD was associated with a decreased neuronal RNA (by 7·4 per cent) and protein (by 28·7 per cent) content in INS. Although the neuronal RNA content was maintained at the control amounts in MFG, the average protein level was lower (14·7 per cent) in AD patients. These results demonstrate a disease-related impairment in metabolic function in two brain regions connected via discrete corticocortical pathways. Such findings support the hypothesis that a primary site of pathology occurs in AD, and specific neural deficits occur secondarily in certain connected brain regions.     

THE CHEMISTRY OF DAYLIGHT VISION

1. While several reports of photosensitive pigments from the retinas of animals possessing large numbers of cone cells have been published, the only study which could be confirmed was Wald''s discovery of iodopsin, a red-sensitive pigment from chicken eyes. 2. In its chemical properties, such as the range of pH stability and the effect of polar organic solvents, iodopsin resembles rhodopsin but is considerably more labile. 3. A partial purification from inert yellow impurities has been effected by prehardening the retinas in pH 4.9 acetate buffer before extraction by 2 per cent digitonin. Rhodopsin was an inevitable contaminant in most methods of extraction, but could be reduced to about 10 per cent of the absorption due to iodopsin by extraction of unhardened retinas with 4 per cent Merck''s saponin in ¾ saturated magnesium sulfate for about 1 hour. 4. The rate of bleaching of iodopsin was found to be first order and linear with respect to energy. 5. The bleaching effectiveness spectrum of iodopsin was determined with the aid of color filters of known energy transmission, and shows a maximum at 560 mµ in the yellow green with a lower plateau in the blue. The spectrum is in good agreement with the sensitivity of the human cones except for the wavelength of maximum bleaching effectiveness. The maximum sensitivity of the human cones is found at 540 mµ. 6. Previous reports of changes in pH and inorganic phosphate level of retinas due to bleaching could not be confirmed.     

Preregistration house officers in the Thames regions: changes in quality of training after four years.

OBJECTIVE--To measure changes in the training and workload of preregistration house officers over four years. DESIGN--Postal questionnaire. SETTING--The Thames health regions. PARTICIPANTS--1049 preregistration house officers. RESULTS--Response rate was 69% (725 replies). The proportion of house officers officially on duty > 83 hours a week fell from at least 42% to 21%, and the proportion officially on duty < or = 72 hours rose from no more than 9% to 40%. Adequate guidance in breaking bad news increased from 25% to 46% (p < 0.0001; 95% confidence interval for difference, 16.2% to 25.8%) and guidance in pain control increased from 36% to 46% (p < 0.01; 5.0% to 15.0%). The number of house officers attending an induction course increased from 61% to 94% (p < 0.001; 28.9% to 37.1%). There was no change in the proportion unable to attend formal educational sessions because of clinical commitments or in levels of satisfaction with consultants'' educational supervision. The median number of inpatients under house officers'' care fell from 20 to 17, but the numbers of patients clerked in an average week showed little change. House officers were less satisfied with the clinical experience their post provided (proportion dissatisfied rose from 30% to 39%; p < 0.01; 4.2% to 13.8%) and less enthusiastic about recommending their post to a friend (proportion neutral or not recommending rose from 30% to 42%, p < 0.0001; 7.9% to 16.9%). CONCLUSION--Despite progress in reducing hours of duty and providing induction courses, the training that hospitals and consultants provide for house officers is still unsatisfactory and inconsistent with the General Medical Council''s recommendations.     

Comparison of Statistical Models for Analyzing Wheat Yield Time Series

The world''s population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale.     

ECTOPIC PREGNANCY—Early Diagnosis,Clinical Errors and Conservative Operation

This report of eight years'' experience with extrauterine pregnancy by a single gynecologist is an exposition of how the diagnosis was made or why it was missed.Of 26 diagnoses of ectopic pregnancy, five were false (20 per cent); and in three cases (10 per cent) the diagnosis was not made promptly—a total error of 30 per cent.Ectopic pregnancy will be discovered earlier if obstetric patients are always examined shortly after missing the first menstrual period.A palpable adnexal mass was present in 19 of 21 ectopic pregnancies (90 per cent). A mass was palpable in only one of five cases erroneously diagnosed as ectopic pregnancy (20 per cent).Decidual casts were passed by four patients, two of whom did not have ectopic pregnancy.If two gynecologists do not agree on the question of extrauterine pregnancy, a third opinion should be sought or culdoscopy employed.Enucleation of the conceptus and salvage of the oviduct is advocated.     

CIRRHOSIS OF THE LIVER—Clinical Course in 2,377 Patients at San Francisco General Hospital

The records of 2,377 patients with Laennec''s cirrhosis were reviewed for the period 1947-1957. The chief presenting symptom was ascites in 46 per cent, bleeding in 23 per cent, coma in 18 per cent, jaundice in 9 per cent, and both jaundice and ascites in 4 per cent. Nearly half of the patients died during the period under study—one-third from hepatic failure, one-third from gastrointestinal bleeding, and one-third from other causes, most of which were related to alcoholism.Massive gastrointestinal bleeding occurred in 21 per cent of the patients at some time in their clinical course, and in the 10 per cent of these in whom ulcer was demonstrated, one-fifth died as a result of the hemorrhage. Of those presumed to be bleeding from esophageal varices, 64 per cent died at the first hemorrhage and 10 per cent at subsequent hemorrhages; 85 per cent of all those who bled from varices were dead at the end of one year, and 91 per cent were dead at the end of three years.The survival curve of a group of patients who bled once and were good operative risks but had received no operative treatment was compared to the survival curve for entire group who survived the first hemorrhage. The three-year survival in the good risk group was 47 per cent; for the group as a whole it was 30 per cent. The difference in mortality rate was primarily due to an increased number of deaths from hepatic failure in the combined group, whereas 60 per cent of the good risk group died of recurrent gastrointestinal hemorrhage.As 86 per cent of those who were to die of gastrointestinal bleeding did so at the first hemorrhage, it was concluded that any decided improvement in the salvage rate achievable by operation must come from some means of diagnostic forecast of the likelihood of bleeding, with resort to prophylactic operation in such cases.     

Methodological proposal to assess the water footprint accounting of direct water use at an urban level: A case study of the Municipality of Vicenza

Climate change, world population growth and industrialization have placed considerable stress on the local availability of water resources. Considering that most of the world's population currently resides in cities, this issue has particular relevance in an urban environment. One of the methods that is recognized to support better water management is water footprint accounting. However, due to the requirement of large amounts of data and their limited availability, applications of this method at an urban scale use national or regional water use data. The goal of this study is to develop a methodological proposal to assess the water footprint accounting of direct water use at an urban level to support the local management of water resources by using local data, by adopting a bottom-up approach and by verifying its applicability in a real case study. The water footprint accounting approach was modified by adopting a modular approach in the definition of boundaries and by adapting the blue, green and gray water footprint accounting formulations. The proposed method was successfully tested in the municipality of Vicenza (north east Italy) and provided interesting responses in terms of water management. Herein, we also discuss the latest developments in impact assessments related to water based on a life cycle assessment, which should be used as a framework for the future development of the model that is presented.     

Income distribution trends and future food demand

This paper surveys the theoretical literature on the relationship between income distribution and food demand, and identifies main gaps of current food modelling techniques that affect the accuracy of food demand projections. At the heart of the relationship between income distribution and food demand is Engel''s law. Engel''s law establishes that as income increases, households'' demand for food increases less than proportionally. A consequence of this law is that the particular shape of the distribution of income across individuals and countries affects the rate of growth of food demand. Our review of the literature suggests that existing models of food demand fail to incorporate the required Engel flexibility when (i) aggregating different food budget shares among households; and (ii) changing budget shares as income grows. We perform simple simulations to predict growth in food demand under alternative income distribution scenarios taking into account nonlinearity of food demand. Results suggest that (i) distributional effects are to be expected from changes in between-countries inequality, rather than within-country inequality; and (ii) simulations of an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario of income inequality suggest that world food demand in 2050 would be 2.7 per cent higher and 5.4 per cent lower than distributional-neutral growth, respectively.     

Elemental Fingerprinting of Mussel Shells to Predict Population Sources and Redistribution Potential in the Gulf of Maine

As the climate warms, species that cannot tolerate changing conditions will only persist if they undergo range shifts. Redistribution ability may be particularly variable for benthic marine species that disperse as pelagic larvae in ocean currents. The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, has recently experienced a warming-related range contraction in the southeastern USA and may face limitations to northward range shifts within the Gulf of Maine where dominant coastal currents flow southward. Thus, blue mussels might be especially vulnerable to warming, and understanding dispersal patterns is crucial given the species'' relatively long planktonic larval period (>1 month). To determine whether trace elemental “fingerprints” incorporated in mussel shells could be used to identify population sources (i.e. collection locations), we assessed the geographic variation in shell chemistry of blue mussels collected from seven populations between Cape Cod, Massachusetts and northern Maine. Across this ∼500 km of coastline, we were able to successfully predict population sources for over two-thirds of juvenile individuals, with almost 80% of juveniles classified within one site of their collection location and 97% correctly classified to region. These results indicate that significant differences in elemental signatures of mussel shells exist between open-coast sites separated by ∼50 km throughout the Gulf of Maine. Our findings suggest that elemental “fingerprinting” is a promising approach for predicting redistribution potential of the blue mussel, an ecologically and economically important species in the region.     

Oxygen Consumption Constrains Food Intake in Fish Fed Diets Varying in Essential Amino Acid Composition

Compromisation of food intake when confronted with diets deficient in essential amino acids is a common response of fish and other animals, but the underlying physiological factors are poorly understood. We hypothesize that oxygen consumption of fish is a possible physiological factor constraining food intake. To verify, we assessed the food intake and oxygen consumption of rainbow trout fed to satiation with diets which differed in essential amino acid (methionine and lysine) compositions: a balanced vs. an imbalanced amino acid diet. Both diets were tested at two water oxygen levels: hypoxia vs. normoxia. Trout consumed 29% less food under hypoxia compared to normoxia (p<0.001). Under both hypoxia and normoxia trout significantly reduced food intake by 11% and 16% respectively when fed the imbalanced compared to the balanced amino acid diet. Oxygen consumption of the trout per unit body mass remained identical for both diet groups not only under hypoxia but also under normoxia (p>0.05). This difference in food intake between diets under normoxia together with the identical oxygen consumption supports the hypothesis that food intake in fish can be constrained by a set-point value of oxygen consumption, as seen here on a six-week time scale.     

Effects of Changes in Water Intake on Mood of High and Low Drinkers

Objective

To evaluate the effects of a change in water intake on mood and sensation in 22 habitual high-volume (HIGH; 2-4 L/d) and 30 low-volume (LOW; <1.2 L/d) drinkers who were asked to respectively decrease and increase their daily water intake.

Method

During baseline HIGH consumed 2.5 L and LOW 1 L of water/day. During 3 controlled intervention days HIGH''s water intake was restricted to 1 L/day whereas LOW''s was increased to 2.5 L water/day. Several mood scales (Bond & Lader Visual Analog Scale (VAS), Profile of Mood States, Karolinska Sleepiness Scale, Thirst & Emotional VAS) were administered at different time points during the study. ANOVA including intervention, time point and intervention by time point as fixed effects on mean values (i.e.; baseline data vs. mean of 3 intervention days) for each mood scale was performed.

Results

At baseline HIGH and LOW were comparable in mood state, except for thirst scores (estimate = 17.16, p<0.001) and POMS depression-dejection scores (estimate = 0.55, p<0.05) which were both higher in the HIGH vs. LOW. In HIGH the restricted water intake resulted in a significant increase in thirst (p<0.001) and a decrease in contentedness (p<0.05), calmness (p<0.01), positive emotions (p<0.05) and vigor/activity (p<0.001). In LOW, increased water consumption resulted in a significant decrease in fatigue/inertia (p<0.001), confusion/bewilderment (p = 0.05) and thirst (p<0.001) and a trend to lower sleepiness (p = 0.07) compared to baseline.

Conclusion

Increasing water intake has beneficial effects in LOW, especially sleep/wake feelings, whereas decreasing water intake has detrimental effects on HIGH''s mood. These deleterious effects in HIGH were observed in some sleep/wake moods as well as calmness, satisfaction and positive emotions.     

Genetic Diversity of and Differentiation among Five Populations of Blunt Snout Bream (Megalobrama amblycephala) Revealed by SRAP Markers: Implications for Conservation and Management

The blunt snout bream (Megalobrama amblycephala) is an important freshwater aquaculture fish throughout China. Because of widespread introductions of this species to many regions, the genetic diversity of wild and natural populations is now threatened. In the present study, SRAP (sequence-related amplified polymorphism) markers were used to assess genetic diversity of blunt snout bream. Three natural populations (Liangzi Lake, Poyang Lake and Yuni Lake, one cultured population (Nanxian) and one genetic strain (‘Pujiang No. 1’) of blunt snout bream were screened with 88 SRAP primer combinations, of which 13 primer pairs produced stable and reproducible amplification patterns. In total, 172 bands were produced, of which 132 bands were polymorphic. Nei''s gene diversity (h) and Shannon''s information index (I) values provided evidence of differences in genetic diversity among the five populations (Poyang Lake>Liangzi Lake>Nanxian>‘Pujiang No. 1’>Yuni Lake). Based on cluster analysis conducted on genetic distance values, the five blunt snout bream populations were divided into three groups, Poyang Lake and Liangzi Lake (natural populations), Nanxian and ‘Pujiang No. 1’ (cultured population and genetically selected strain), and Yuni Lake (natural population). Significant genetic differentiation was found among the five populations using analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), with more genetic divergence existing among populations (55.49%), than within populations (44.51%). This molecular marker technique is a simple and efficient method to quantify genetic diversity within and among fish populations, and is employed here to help manage and conserve germplasm variability of blunt snout bream and to support the ongoing selective breeding programme for this fish.     

Salt Content Impacts Food Preferences and Intake among Children

Decreasing dietary sodium intake, which can be achieved by reducing salt content in food, is recommended. Salt contributes to the taste of foods and makes them more enjoyable. Whether a food is liked or disliked is an important determinant of food intake, especially among children. However, the role of salt in children''s food acceptance has received little attention. The impact of salt content on children''s hedonic rating and intake of two foods was investigated in children. Using a within-subject crossover design, we recruited 75 children (8–11 years) to participate in five lunches in their school cafeteria. The target foods were green beans and pasta. The added salt content was 0, 0.6 or 1.2 g/100 g. The children''s intake (g) of all lunch items was measured. The children provided their hedonic rating of the food, a preference ranking and a saltiness ranking in the laboratory. Children could rank the foods according to salt content, and they preferred the two saltier options. A food-specific effect of salt content on intake was observed. Compared to the intermediate level (0.6 g salt/100 g), not adding salt decreased green bean intake (−21%; p = 0.002), and increasing the salt content increased pasta intake (+24%; p<0.0001). Structural Equation Modeling was used to model the relative weights of the determinants of intake. It showed that the primary driver of food intake was the child''s hunger; the second most important factor was the child''s hedonic rating of the food, regardless of its salt content, and the last factor was the child''s preference for the particular salt content of the food. In conclusion, salt content has a positive and food-specific effect on intake; it impacted food preferences and intake differently in children. Taking into account children''s preferences for salt instead of their intake may lead to excessive added salt.