Primary controls on species richness in higher taxa

The disparity in species richness across the tree of life is one of the most striking and pervasive features of biological diversity. Some groups are exceptionally diverse, whereas many other groups are species poor. Differences in diversity among groups are frequently assumed to result from primary control by differential rates of net diversification. However, a major alternative explanation is that ecological and other factors exert primary control on clade diversity, such that apparent variation in net diversification rates is a secondary consequence of ecological limits on clade growth. Here, I consider a likelihood framework for distinguishing between these competing hypotheses. I incorporate hierarchical modeling to explicitly relax assumptions about the constancy of diversification rates across clades, and I propose several statistics for a posteriori evaluation of model adequacy. I apply the framework to a recent dated phylogeny of ants. My results reject the hypothesis that net diversification rates exert primary control on species richness in this group and demonstrate that clade diversity is better explained by total time-integrated speciation. These results further suggest that it may not possible to estimate meaningful speciation and extinction rates from higher-level phylogenies of extant taxa only.     

Is regional species diversity bounded or unbounded?

Two conflicting hypotheses have been proposed to explain large‐scale species diversity patterns and dynamics. The unbounded hypothesis proposes that regional diversity depends only on time and diversification rate and increases without limit. The bounded hypothesis proposes that ecological constraints place upper limits on regional diversity and that diversity is usually close to its limit. Recent evidence from the fossil record, phylogenetic analysis, biogeography, and phenotypic disparity during lineage diversification suggests that diversity is constrained by ecological processes but that it is rarely asymptotic. Niche space is often unfilled or can be more finely subdivided and still permit coexistence, and new niche space is often created before ecological limits are reached. Damped increases in diversity over time are the prevalent pattern, suggesting the need for a new ‘damped increase hypothesis'. The damped increase hypothesis predicts that diversity generally increases through time but that its rate of increase is often slowed by ecological constraints. However, slowing due to niche limitation must be distinguished from other possible mechanisms creating similar patterns. These include sampling artifacts, the inability to detect extinctions or declines in clade diversity with some methods, the distorting effects of correlated speciation‐extinction dynamics, the likelihood that opportunities for allopatric speciation will vary in space and time, and the role of undetected natural enemies in reducing host ranges and thus slowing speciation rates. The taxonomic scope of regional diversity studies must be broadened to include all ecologically similar species so that ecological constraints may be accurately inferred. The damped increase hypothesis suggests that information on evolutionary processes such as time‐for‐speciation and intrinsic diversification rates as well as ecological factors will be required to explain why regional diversity varies among times, places and taxa.     

The causes of species richness patterns across space, time, and clades and the role of "ecological limits"

A major goal of research in ecology and evolution is to explain why species richness varies across habitats, regions, and clades. Recent reviews have argued that species richness patterns among regions and clades may be explained by "ecological limits" on diversity over time, which are said to offer an alternative explanation to those invoking speciation and extinction (diversification) and time. Further, it has been proposed that this hypothesis is best supported by failure to find a positive relationship between time (e.g., clade age) and species richness. Here, I critically review the evidence for these claims, and propose how we might better study the ecological and evolutionary origins of species richness patterns. In fact, ecological limits can only influence species richness in clades by influencing speciation and extinction, and so this new "alternative paradigm" is simply one facet of the traditional idea that ecology influences diversification. The only direct evidence for strict ecological limits on richness (i.e., constant diversity over time) is from the fossil record, but many studies cited as supporting this pattern do not, and there is evidence for increasing richness over time. Negative evidence for a relationship between clade age and richness among extant clades is not positive evidence for constant diversity over time, and many recent analyses finding no age-diversity relationship were biased to reach this conclusion. More comprehensive analyses strongly support a positive age-richness relationship. There is abundant evidence that both time and ecological influences on diversification rates are important drivers of both large-scale and small-scale species richness patterns. The major challenge for future studies is to understand the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underpinning the relationships between time, dispersal, diversification, and species richness patterns.     

Ecological and Ecomorphological Specialization Are Not Associated with Diversification Rates in Muroid Rodents (Rodentia: Muroidea)

Multiple diversification rate shifts explain uneven clade richness in muroid rodents. Previous muroid studies have shown that extrinsic factors, notwithstanding ecological opportunity, are poor predictors of clade diversity. Here, we use a 297-muroid species chronogram that is sampled proportional to total clade diversity, along with various trait-dependent diversification approaches to investigate the association between diversification rates with intrinsic attributes—diet, habitat, body mass, and relative tail length. We found some association between both dietary specialization and body mass, as well as between habitat specialization with relative tail lengths using phylogenetic analyses of variance. However, there was no significant association between diversification rates with the evolution of these traits in muroid rodents. We also show that several of the state-dependent diversification approaches are highly susceptible to Type I error—a result that is in accordance with recent criticisms of these methods. Finally, we discuss several potential causes for the lack of association between the examined trait data with diversification rates, ranging from methodological biases (e.g. method conservativism) to biology (e.g. behavioral plasticity and ecological opportunism of muroid rodents).     

Testing for ecological limitation of diversification: a case study using parasitic plants

Abstract Imbalances in phylogenetic diversity could be the result of variable diversification rates, differing limits on diversity, or a combination of the two. We propose an approach to distinguish between rates and limits as the primary cause of phylogenetic imbalance, using parasitic plants as a model. With sister-taxon comparisons, we show that parasitic plant lineages are typically much less diverse than their autotrophic sisters. We then use age estimates for taxa used in the sister-taxon comparisons to test for correlations between clade age and clade diversity. We find that parasitic plant diversity is not significantly correlated with the age of the lineage, whereas there is a strong positive correlation between the age and diversity of nonparasitic sister lineages. The Ericaceae sister pair Monotropoideae (parasitic) and Arbutoideae (autotrophic) is sufficiently well sampled at the species level to allow more parametric comparisons of diversification patterns. Model fitting for this group supports ecological limitation in Monotropoideae and unconstrained diversification in Arbutoideae. Thus, differences in diversity between parasitic plants and their autotrophic sisters might be caused by a combination of ecological limitation and exponential diversification. A combination of sister-taxon comparisons of diversity and age, coupled with model fitting of well-sampled phylogenies of focal taxa, provides a powerful test of likely causes of asymmetry in the diversity of lineages.     

A conceptual and statistical framework for adaptive radiations with a key role for diversity dependence

Abstract In this article we propose a new framework for studying adaptive radiations in the context of diversity-dependent diversification. Diversity dependence causes diversification to decelerate at the end of an adaptive radiation but also plays a key role in the initial pulse of diversification. In particular, key innovations (which in our definition include novel traits as well as new environments) may cause decoupling of the diversity-dependent dynamics of the innovative clade from the diversity-dependent dynamics of its ancestral clade. We present a likelihood-based inference method to test for decoupling of diversity dependence using molecular phylogenies. The method, which can handle incomplete phylogenies, identifies when the decoupling took place and which diversification parameters are affected. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the molecular phylogeny of the North American clade of the legume tribe Psoraleeae (47 extant species, of which 4 are missing). Two diversification rate shifts were previously identified for this clade; our analysis shows that the first, positive shift can be associated with decoupling of two Pediomelum subgenera from the other Psoraleeae lineages, while we argue that the second, negative shift can be attributed to speciation being protracted. The latter explanation yields nonzero extinction rates, in contrast to previous findings. Our framework offers a new perspective on macroevolution: new environments and novel traits (ecological opportunity) and diversity dependence (ecological limits) cannot be considered separately.     

Detecting local diversity‐dependence in diversification

Whether there are ecological limits to species diversification is a hotly debated topic. Molecular phylogenies show slowdowns in lineage accumulation, suggesting that speciation rates decline with increasing diversity. A maximum‐likelihood (ML) method to detect diversity‐dependent (DD) diversification from phylogenetic branching times exists, but it assumes that diversity‐dependence is a global phenomenon and therefore ignores that the underlying species interactions are mostly local, and not all species in the phylogeny co‐occur locally. Here, we explore whether this ML method based on the nonspatial diversity‐dependence model can detect local diversity‐dependence, by applying it to phylogenies, simulated with a spatial stochastic model of local DD speciation, extinction, and dispersal between two local communities. We find that type I errors (falsely detecting diversity‐dependence) are low, and the power to detect diversity‐dependence is high when dispersal rates are not too low. Interestingly, when dispersal is high the power to detect diversity‐dependence is even higher than in the nonspatial model. Moreover, estimates of intrinsic speciation rate, extinction rate, and ecological limit strongly depend on dispersal rate. We conclude that the nonspatial DD approach can be used to detect diversity‐dependence in clades of species that live in not too disconnected areas, but parameter estimates must be interpreted cautiously.     

A major shift in diversification rate helps explain macroevolutionary patterns in primate species diversity

Primates represent one of the most species rich, wide ranging, and ecologically diverse clades of mammals. What major macroevolutionary factors have driven their diversification and contributed to the modern distribution of primate species remains widely debated. We employed phylogenetic comparative methods to examine the role of clade age and evolutionary rate heterogeneity in the modern distribution of species diversity of Primates. Primate diversification has accelerated since its origin, with decreased extinction leading to a shift to even higher evolutionary rates in the most species rich family (Cercopithecidae). Older primate clades tended to be more diverse, however a shift in evolutionary rate was necessary to adequately explain the imbalance in species diversity. Species richness was also poorly explained by geographic distribution, especially once clade age and evolutionary rate shifts were accounted for, and may relate instead to other ecological factors. The global distribution of primate species diversity appears to have been strongly impacted by heterogeneity in evolutionary rates.     

ECOLOGICAL CAUSES OF DECELERATING DIVERSIFICATION IN CARNIVORAN MAMMALS

Clade diversification is a central topic in macroevolutionary studies. Recently, it has been shown that diversification rates appear to decelerate over time in many clades. What causes this deceleration remains unclear, but it has been proposed that competition for limited resources between sympatric, ecologically similar species slows diversification. Employing carnivoran mammals as a model system, we test this hypothesis using a comprehensive time‐calibrated phylogeny. We also explore several conceptually related explanations including limited geographic area and limited rates of niche evolution. We find that diversification slowdowns are strong in carnivorans. Surprisingly, these slowdowns are independent of geographic range overlap between related species and are also decoupled from rates of niche evolution, suggesting that slowdowns are unrelated to competition and niche filling. When controlling for the effects of clade diversity, diversification slowdowns appear independent of geographic area. There is a significant effect of clade diversity on diversification slowdowns, but simulations show that this relationship may arise as a statistical artifact (i.e., greater clade diversity increases the ability of the gamma statistic to refute constant diversification). Overall, our results emphasize the need to test hypotheses about the causes of diversification slowdowns with ecological data, rather than assuming ecological processes from phylogenies alone.     

Lineage diversification and morphological evolution in a large-scale continental radiation: the neotropical ovenbirds and woodcreepers (aves: Furnariidae)

Patterns of diversification in species-rich clades provide insight into the processes that generate biological diversity. We tested different models of lineage and phenotypic diversification in an exceptional continental radiation, the ovenbird family Furnariidae, using the most complete species-level phylogenetic hypothesis produced to date for a major avian clade (97% of 293 species). We found that the Furnariidae exhibit nearly constant rates of lineage accumulation but show evidence of constrained morphological evolution. This pattern of sustained high rates of speciation despite limitations on phenotypic evolution contrasts with the results of most previous studies of evolutionary radiations, which have found a pattern of decelerating diversity-dependent lineage accumulation coupled with decelerating or constrained phenotypic evolution. Our results suggest that lineage accumulation in tropical continental radiations may not be as limited by ecological opportunities as in temperate or island radiations. More studies examining patterns of both lineage and phenotypic diversification are needed to understand the often complex tempo and mode of evolutionary radiations on continents.     

Ecological opportunity alters the timing and shape of adaptive radiation

The uneven distribution of diversity is a conspicuous phenomenon across the tree of life. Ecological opportunity is a prominent catalyst of adaptive radiation and therefore may alter patterns of diversification. We evaluated the distribution of shifts in diversification rates across the cichlid phylogeny and the distribution of major clades across phylogenetic space. We also tested if ecological opportunity influenced these patterns. Colonization‐associated ecological opportunity altered the tempo and mode of diversification during the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes. Clades that arose following colonization events diversified faster than other clades. Speciation rate shifts were nonrandomly distributed across the phylogeny such that they were disproportionally concentrated around nodes that corresponded with colonization events (i.e., of continents, river basins, or lakes). Young clades tend to expand faster than older clades; however, colonization‐associated ecological opportunity accentuated this pattern. There was an interaction between clade age and ecological opportunity that explained the trajectory of clades through phylogenetic space over time. Our results indicate that ecological opportunities afforded by continental and ecosystem‐scale colonization events explain the dramatic speciation rate heterogeneity and phylogenetic imbalance that arose during the evolutionary history of cichlid fishes.     

Diversification rates in a temperate legume clade: Are there “so many species” of Astragalus (Fabaceae)?

Astragalus, the largest genus of flowering plants, contains upwards of 2500 species. Explanations for this exceptional species diversity have pointed to unusual population structure or modes of speciation. Surprisingly, however, three different statistical analyses indicate that diversification rates in Astragalus are not exceptionally high compared to its closest relatives. Instead, rates are high throughout the “Astragalean clade,” a much broader radiation distributed throughout the temperate zone. The increase in diversification rate is associated with the origin and divergence of this clade from common ancestors of it and several much less diverse and more narrowly distributed Asian genera. This suggests that causal factors in the shift toward higher rates of diversification must be due not to factors unique to Astragalus, but to characteristics common to the entire Astragalean clade. However, this larger clade has never been circumscribed in classifications based on morphological data. This raises the possibility that the causes of increased diversification may not be due to morphological innovation, but may instead be related to ecological factors or cryptic physiological or biochemical features.     

Extinction, ecological opportunity, and the origins of global snake diversity

Snake diversity varies by at least two orders of magnitude among extant lineages, with numerous groups containing only one or two species, and several young clades exhibiting exceptional richness (>700 taxa). With a phylogeny containing all known families and subfamilies, we find that these patterns cannot be explained by background rates of speciation and extinction. The majority of diversity appears to derive from a radiation within the superfamily Colubroidea, potentially stemming from the colonization of new areas and the evolution of advanced venom-delivery systems. In contrast, negative relationships between clade age, clade size, and diversification rate suggest the potential for possible bias in estimated diversification rates, interpreted by some recent authors as support for ecologically mediated limits on diversity. However, evidence from the fossil record indicates that numerous lineages were far more diverse in the past, and that extinction has had an important impact on extant diversity patterns. Thus, failure to adequately account for extinction appears to prevent both rate- and diversity-limited models from fully characterizing richness dynamics in snakes. We suggest that clade-level extinction may provide a key mechanism for explaining negative or hump-shaped relationships between clade age and diversity, and the prevalence of ancient, species-poor lineages in numerous groups.     

The molecular phylogenetic signature of clades in decline

Molecular phylogenies have been used to study the diversification of many clades. However, current methods for inferring diversification dynamics from molecular phylogenies ignore the possibility that clades may be decreasing in diversity, despite the fact that the fossil record shows this to be the case for many groups. Here we investigate the molecular phylogenetic signature of decreasing diversity using the most widely used statistic for inferring diversity dynamics from molecular phylogenies, the γ statistic. We show that if a clade is in decline its molecular phylogeny may show evidence of the decrease in the diversification rate that occurred between its diversification and decline phases. The ability to detect the change in diversification rate depends largely on the ratio of the speciation rates of the diversification and decline phases, the higher the ratio the stronger the signal of the change in diversification rate. Consequently, molecular phylogenies of clades in relative rapid decline do not carry a signature of their decreasing diversification. Further, the signal of the change in diversification rate, if present, declines as the diversity drop. Unfortunately, the molecular signature of clades in decline is the same as the signature produced by diversity dependent diversification. Given this similarity, and the inability of current methods to detect declining diversity, it is likely that some of the extant clades that show a decrease in diversification rate, currently interpreted as evidence for diversity dependent diversification, are in fact in decline. Unless methods can be developed that can discriminate between the different modes of diversification, specifically diversity dependent diversification and declining diversity, we will need the fossil record, or data from some other source, to distinguish between these very different diversity trajectories.     

Influence of sexual selection and feeding functional morphology on diversification rate of parrotfishes (Scaridae)

Scaridae (parrotfishes) is a prominent clade of 96 species that shape coral reef communities worldwide through their actions as grazing herbivores. Phylogenetically nested within Labridae, the profound ecological impact and high species richness of parrotfishes suggest that their diversification and ecological success may be linked. Here, we ask whether parrotfish evolution is characterized by a significant burst of lineage diversification and whether parrotfish diversity is shaped more strongly by sexual selection or modifications of the feeding mechanism. We first examined scarid diversification within the greater context of labrid diversity. We used a supermatrix approach for 252 species to propose the most extensive phylogenetic hypothesis of Labridae to date, and time-calibrated the phylogeny with fossil and biogeographical data. Using divergence date estimates, we find that several parrotfish clades exhibit the highest diversification rates among all labrid lineages. Furthermore, we pinpoint a rate shift at the shared ancestor of Scarus and Chlorurus, a scarid subclade characterized by territorial behaviour and strong sexual dichromatism, suggesting that sexual selection was a major factor in parrotfish diversification. Modifications of the pharyngeal and oral jaws that happened earlier in parrotfish evolution may have contributed to this diversity by establishing parrotfishes as uniquely capable reef herbivores.     

Detecting Trait-Dependent Diversification Under Diversification Slowdowns

Testing whether a certain biological trait significantly affects clade diversification is central to macroevolutionary research. To this end, many scientists use constant-rate estimators (CR estimators) of diversification. However, it has never been examined whether these estimators report meaningful relationships between traits and diversification even when the diversification itself decelerates over time. In this study, I simulate trait-driven diversification concurrently with diversification slowdowns. Then, I test whether CR estimators manage to uncover the simulated relationships. Results suggest that CR estimators are robust against violation of rate constancy and successfully detect trait-dependent diversification in spite of diversification declines. Interestingly, correct results were recovered whether clade age correlated with clade diversity or not. Further comparison of CR estimators with QuaSSE suggested that QuaSSE performs better under constant diversification, but tends to report spuriously significant outcomes when diversification decelerates (=elevated Type I error). Given that diversification slowdowns have been recently reported for a wide range of taxa, these findings may be of particular relevance for future diversification studies.     

DO FRESHWATER FISHES DIVERSIFY FASTER THAN MARINE FISHES? A TEST USING STATE‐DEPENDENT DIVERSIFICATION ANALYSES AND MOLECULAR PHYLOGENETICS OF NEW WORLD SILVERSIDES (ATHERINOPSIDAE)

Freshwater habitats make up only ～0.01% of available aquatic habitat and yet harbor 40% of all fish species, whereas marine habitats comprise >99% of available aquatic habitat and have only 60% of fish species. One possible explanation for this pattern is that diversification rates are higher in freshwater habitats than in marine habitats. We investigated diversification in marine and freshwater lineages in the New World silverside fish clade Menidiinae (Teleostei, Atherinopsidae). Using a time‐calibrated phylogeny and a state‐dependent speciation–extinction framework, we determined the frequency and timing of habitat transitions in Menidiinae and tested for differences in diversification parameters between marine and freshwater lineages. We found that Menidiinae is an ancestrally marine lineage that independently colonized freshwater habitats four times followed by three reversals to the marine environment. Our state‐dependent diversification analyses showed that freshwater lineages have higher speciation and extinction rates than marine lineages. Net diversification rates were higher (but not significant) in freshwater than marine environments. The marine lineage‐through time (LTT) plot shows constant accumulation, suggesting that ecological limits to clade growth have not slowed diversification in marine lineages. Freshwater lineages exhibited an upturn near the recent in their LTT plot, which is consistent with our estimates of high background extinction rates. All sequence data are currently being archived on Genbank and phylogenetic trees archived on Treebase.     

Different Diversification Rates Between Sexual and Asexual Organisms

Patterns of diversity reflect the balance between speciation and extinction over time. Here we estimate net diversification rates for samples of sexual and asexual rotifers using phylogenetic reconstructions from sequence data of one mtDNA locus, cytochrome oxidase c subunit I. All four clades of bdelloid rotifers, obligate asexuals, had higher number of species per clade and significantly higher accumulation of diversification events towards the root of the trees than the four clades of their sexual relatives, the monogonont rotifers. Such differences were robust to confounding effects of number of analysed sequences, haplotype diversity, overall genetic divergence, age of the clades or geographic coverage. Our results support the idea that differences in diversification rates could thus be ascribed to different mechanisms of speciation, with ecological speciation as the most plausible mechanism for asexual organisms.     

ABSOLUTE DIVERSIFICATION RATES IN ANGIOSPERM CLADES

Abstract The extraordinary contemporary species richness and ecological predominance of flowering plants (angiosperms) are even more remarkable when considering the relatively recent onset of their evolutionary diversification. We examine the evolutionary diversification of angiosperms and the observed differential distribution of species in angiosperm clades by estimating the rate of diversification for angiosperms as a whole and for a large set of angiosperm clades. We also identify angiosperm clades with a standing diversity that is either much higher or lower than expected, given the estimated background diversification rate. Recognition of angiosperm clades, the phylogenetic relationships among them, and their taxonomic composition are based on an empirical compilation of primary phylogenetic studies. By making an integrative and critical use of the paleobotanical record, we obtain reasonably secure approximations for the age of a large set of angiosperm clades. Diversification was modeled as a stochastic, time‐homogeneous birth‐and‐death process that depends on the diversification rate (r) and the relative extinction rate (∈). A statistical analysis of the birth and death process was then used to obtain 95% confidence intervals for the expected number of species through time in a clade that diversifies at a rate equal to that of angiosperms as a whole. Confidence intervals were obtained for stem group and for crown group ages in the absence of extinction (∈= 0.0) and under a high relative extinction rate (∈= 0.9). The standing diversity of angiosperm clades was then compared to expected species diversity according to the background rate of diversification, and, depending on their placement with respect to the calculated confidence intervals, exceedingly species‐rich or exceedingly species‐poor clades were identified. The rate of diversification for angiosperms as a whole ranges from 0.077 (∈= 0.9) to 0.089 (∈= 0.0) net speciation events per million years. Ten clades fall above the confidence intervals of expected species diversity, and 13 clades were found to be unexpectedly species poor. The phylogenetic distribution of clades with an exceedingly high number of species suggests that traits that confer high rates of diversification evolved independently in different instances and do not characterize the angiosperms as a whole.     

Exceptional among-lineage variation in diversification rates during the radiation of Australia's most diverse vertebrate clade

The disparity in species richness among groups of organisms is one of the most pervasive features of life on earth. A number of studies have addressed this pattern across higher taxa (e.g. 'beetles'), but we know much less about the generality and causal basis of the variation in diversity within evolutionary radiations at lower taxonomic scales. Here, we address the causes of variation in species richness among major lineages of Australia's most diverse vertebrate radiation, a clade of at least 232 species of scincid lizards. We use new mitochondrial and nuclear intron DNA sequences to test the extent of diversification rate variation in this group. We present an improved likelihood-based method for estimating per-lineage diversification rates from combined phylogenetic and taxonomic (species richness) data, and use the method in a hypothesis-testing framework to localize diversification rate shifts on phylogenetic trees. We soundly reject homogeneity of diversification rates among members of this radiation, and find evidence for a dramatic rate increase in the common ancestor of the genera Ctenotus and Lerista. Our results suggest that the evolution of traits associated with climate tolerance may have had a role in shaping patterns of diversity in this group.