La Dolce Vita in times of harshness: Prevalence of health-related behaviors during the great recession in Italy

The current work investigates the heterogeneous effect of the 2008 recession on health outcomes in the Italian population across the main geographic areas. Health outcomes were proxied by individual-level information on healthy/risky behaviors, such as individual fruit and vegetable consumption, frequency of bodyweight monitoring, smoking, and alcohol intake. These health outcomes were employed as dependent variables in the empirical model that included some socioeconomic individual aspects (e.g., age, gender, education, and income source), as well as consumer price index data for tobacco products, alcoholic beverages, and fruit and vegetables. In this work, we used twelve years of data (2005–2016) from the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey (MHS), which collects individual self-reported characteristics, augmented with information on unemployment rates at the regional level, as well as with consumer price indexes for the goods analyzed. The results indicated that the 2008 economic crisis lowered the probability that individuals engage in healthy behaviors, such as self-monitoring their bodyweight, mostly among individuals in northern and central areas. Likewise, the economic downturn increased the probability of smoking regardless of the geographic area, with a larger magnitude in individuals in northern and central areas, whose health outcomes were more impacted by the economic downturn than individuals living in the southern and island areas.     

Predation on an upper trophic marine predator, the Steller sea lion: evaluating high juvenile mortality in a density dependent conceptual framework

The endangered western stock of the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus)--the largest of the eared seals--has declined by 80% from population levels encountered four decades ago. Current overall trends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Aleutian Islands appear neutral with strong regional heterogeneities. A published inferential model has been used to hypothesize a continuous decline in natality and depressed juvenile survival during the height of the decline in the mid-late 1980's, followed by the recent recovery of juvenile survival to pre-decline rates. However, these hypotheses have not been tested by direct means, and causes underlying past and present population trajectories remain unresolved and controversial. We determined post-weaning juvenile survival and causes of mortality using data received post-mortem via satellite from telemetry transmitters implanted into 36 juvenile Steller sea lions from 2005 through 2011. Data show high post-weaning mortality by predation in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. To evaluate the impact of such high levels of predation, we developed a conceptual framework to integrate density dependent with density independent effects on vital rates and population trajectories. Our data and model do not support the hypothesized recent recovery of juvenile survival rates and reduced natality. Instead, our data demonstrate continued low juvenile survival in the Prince William Sound and Kenai Fjords region of the Gulf of Alaska. Our results on contemporary predation rates combined with the density dependent conceptual framework suggest predation on juvenile sea lions as the largest impediment to recovery of the species in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. The framework also highlights the necessity for demographic models based on age-structured census data to incorporate the differential impact of predation on multiple vital rates.     

Social Factors Influencing Russian Male Alcohol Use over the Life Course: A Qualitative Study Investigating Age Based Social Norms,Masculinity, and Workplace Context

The massive fluctuations occurring in Russian alcohol-related mortality since the mid-1980s cannot be seen outside of the context of great social and economic change. There is a dearth of qualitative studies about Russian male drinking and especially needed are those that address social processes and individual changes in drinking. Conducted as part of a longitudinal study on men’s alcohol consumption in Izhevsk, this qualitative study uses 25 semi-structured biographical interviews with men aged 33–60 years to explore life course variation in drinking. The dominant pattern was decreasing binge and frequent drinking as men reached middle age which was precipitated by family building, reductions in drinking with work colleagues, and health concerns. A minority of men described chaotic drinking histories with periods of abstinence and heavy drinking. The results highlight the importance of the blue-collar work environment for conditioning male heavy drinking in young adulthood through a variety of social, normative and structural mechanisms. Post-Soviet changes had a structural influence on the propensity for workplace drinking but the important social function of male drinking sessions remained. Bonding with workmates through heavy drinking was seen as an unavoidable and essential part of young men’s social life. With age peer pressure to drink decreased and the need to perform the role of responsible breadwinner put different behavioural demands on men. For some resisting social pressure to drink became an important site of self-determination and a mark of masculine maturity. Over the lifetime the place where masculine identity was asserted shifted from the workplace to the home, which commonly resulted in a reduction in drinking. We contribute to existing theories of Russian male drinking by showing that the performance of age-related social roles influences Russian men’s drinking patterns, drinking contexts and their attitudes. Further research should be conducted investigating drinking trajectories in Russian men.     

A Qualitative Study of Alcohol,Health and Identities among UK Adults in Later Life

Increasing alcohol consumption among older individuals is a public health concern. Lay understandings of health risks and stigma around alcohol problems may explain why public health messages have not reduced rates of heavy drinking in this sector. A qualitative study aimed to elucidate older people''s reasoning about drinking in later life and how this interacted with health concerns, in order to inform future, targeted, prevention in this group. In 2010 a diverse sample of older adults in North East England (ages 50–95) participated in interviews (n = 24, 12 male, 12 female) and three focus groups (participants n = 27, 6 male, 21 female). Data were analysed using grounded theory and discursive psychology methods. When talking about alcohol use older people oriented strongly towards opposed identities of normal or problematic drinker, defined by propriety rather than health considerations. Each of these identities could be applied in older people''s accounts of either moderate or heavy drinking. Older adults portrayed drinking less alcohol as an appropriate response if one experienced impaired health. However continued heavy drinking was also presented as normal behaviour for someone experiencing relative wellbeing in later life, or if ill health was construed as unrelated to alcohol consumption. Older people displayed scepticism about health advice on alcohol when avoiding stigmatised identity as a drinker. Drinking patterns did not appear to be strongly defined by gender, although some gendered expectations of drinking were described. Identities offer a useful theoretical concept to explain the rises in heavy drinking among older populations, and can inform preventive approaches to tackle this. Interventions should engage and foster positive identities to sustain healthier drinking and encourage at the community level the identification of heavy drinking as neither healthy nor synonymous with dependence. Future research should test and assess such approaches.     

Cirrhosis mortality and per capita consumption of distilled spirits,United States, 1949-94: trend analysis

ObjectiveTo describe, evaluate, and suggest interpretations for an observed aggregate level relation between trends in mortality from cirrhosis and per capita consumption of distilled spirits in the United States.DesignTrend analysis using data on US cirrhosis mortality and per capita alcohol consumption.ResultsThere is a consistent long term trend relation between mortality from cirrhosis and per capita consumption of distilled spirits in the United States from 1949 to 1994. Two instances of comparatively sharp drops in the consumption of spirits earlier in the 1940s generated mixed results in predicting changes in cirrhosis mortality.ConclusionsAn aggregate level relation between trends in long term cirrhosis mortality and the consumption of spirits falls considerably short of establishing a direct causal link between the two for individuals. Moreover, two sharp drops in the consumption of spirits generated only mixed results with respect to the short term trend in cirrhosis. Nevertheless, the observed relation between the consumption of spirits and cirrhosis mortality merits further investigation.

Key messages

• US cirrhosis mortality peaked in 1973 but alcohol consumption did not peak until the early 1980s
• Both shifts in the distribution of US drinking patterns (which are not reflected in per capita consumption statistics) and the increase in the availability of treatment for alcoholism have been suggested as potential sources of the decline in cirrhosis
• The trend in the consumption of distilled spirits from 1949 to 1994 shows a close, aggregate level association with cirrhosis mortality
• This aggregate level relation suggests that research is needed into the link between the effects of specific alcoholic beverages and cirrhosis

     

Numbers and breeding success of Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus and Black Grouse T. tetrix at Abernethy Forest,Scotland

Capsule In most years, changes in numbers are associated with variations in breeding success.

Aims To describe the annual variation in numbers and breeding success of Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus and Black Grouse Tetrao tetrix at Abernethy Forest, and their inter‐relationships.

Methods Numbers and breeding success of Capercaillies and Black Grouse were recorded annually at Abernethy Forest (a Scots Pine Pinus sylvestris forest comprising ancient native, or semi‐natural, pinewood and plantations) during 1989–2009. Indices of abundance and densities of Capercaillies were obtained along transects, while counts of males at leks were obtained for both species. Breeding success (number of chicks per female) was obtained using dogs to locate females and chicks.

Results Capercaillie: the index of abundance increased to a peak in winter 1996/97 (2.7 times greater than in 1992/93) and then declined. There was no long‐term trend. In winters 2003/04 and 2004/05, the mean density was 4.2 per km² (95% CLs 3.1–5.7). The total number was 140 (95% CLs 100–220) for 2003/04 and 170 (95% CLs 110–280) for 2004/05, comprising about 8% of the Scottish population. The number of males at leks peaked in 1995 (to 46 males) and again in 2004 (41 males), and there was no long‐term trend. The annual breeding success varied from 0 to 2.93 chicks per female (mean = 0.64). The mean was within the 95% CLs of an independent estimate of the productivity required to maintain numbers. In a free‐running model, annual breeding success and survival rates (which were assumed to improve when mortality owing to fence collisions was removed) largely accounted for the annual variation in the index of abundance, as measured from winter counts along transects during 1990/91 to 2002/03. If mortality associated with collisions with fences had continued, the index would have declined, assuming no immigration.

Black Grouse: The number of male birds at leks increased to a peak in 1997 (to 165 males), before falling back to a smaller number (about 50 males) in the early 2000s. There was a smaller peak in 2007. The annual breeding success varied from 0 to 4.71 chicks per female (mean = 1.76).

Conclusion Numbers of Capercaillies and Black Grouse varied over a 19‐year period at Abernethy Forest, but did not show either upward or downward trends, while the national population of Capercaillies dipped to a low level in 1998/99, and the Black Grouse population continued to decline. In most years, changes in numbers of both species were associated with variation in breeding production. Mortality caused by collisions with fences would have led to a decline in Capercaillie numbers if fences had not been removed.     

Home Foreclosure,Health, and Mental Health: A Systematic Review of Individual,Aggregate, and Contextual Associations

Background

The U.S. foreclosure crisis intensified markedly during the Great Recession of 2007-09, and currently an estimated five percent of U.S. residential properties are more than 90 days past due or in the process of foreclosure. Yet there has been no systematic assessment of the effects of foreclosure on health and mental health.

Methods and Findings

I applied systematic search terms to PubMed and PsycINFO to identify quantitative or qualitative studies about the relationship between home foreclosure and health or mental health. After screening the titles and abstracts of 930 publications and reviewing the full text of 76 articles, dissertations, and other reports, I identified 42 publications representing 35 unique studies about foreclosure, health, and mental health. The majority of studies (32 [91%]) concluded that foreclosure had adverse effects on health or mental health, while three studies yielded null or mixed findings. Only two studies examined the extent to which foreclosure may have disproportionate impacts on ethnic or racial minority populations.

Conclusions

Home foreclosure adversely affects health and mental health through channels operating at multiple levels: at the individual level, the stress of personally experiencing foreclosure was associated with worsened mental health and adverse health behaviors, which were in turn linked to poorer health status; at the community level, increasing degradation of the neighborhood environment had indirect, cross-level adverse effects on health and mental health. Early intervention may be able to prevent acute economic shocks from eventually developing into the chronic stress of foreclosure, with all of the attendant benefits this implies for health and mental health status. Programs designed to encourage early return of foreclosed properties back into productive use may have similar health and mental health benefits.     

Alcohol consumption and mortality from all causes,coronary heart disease,and stroke: results from a prospective cohort study of Scottish men with 21 years of follow up

ObjectivesTo relate alcohol consumption to mortality.DesignProspective cohort study.Setting27 workplaces in the west of Scotland.Participants5766 men aged 35-64 when screened in 1970-3 who answered questions on their usual weekly alcohol consumption.ResultsRisk for all cause mortality was similar for non-drinkers and men drinking up to 14 units a week. Mortality risk then showed a graded association with alcohol consumption (relative rate compared with non-drinkers 1.34 (95% confidence interval 1.14 to 1.58) for 15-21 units a week, 1.49 (1.27 to 1.75) for 22-34 units, 1.74 (1.47 to 2.06) for 35 or more units). Adjustment for risk factors attenuated the increased relative risks, but they remained significantly above 1 for men drinking 22 or more units a week. There was no strong relation between alcohol consumption and mortality from coronary heart disease after adjustment. A strong positive relation was seen between alcohol consumption and risk of mortality from stroke, with men drinking 35 or more units having double the risk of non-drinkers, even after adjustment.ConclusionsThe overall association between alcohol consumption and mortality is unfavourable for men drinking over 22 units a week, and there is no clear evidence of any protective effect for men drinking less than this.

Key messages

• Results from a large cohort study of employed Scottish men showed different relations between alcohol consumption and mortality than previous studies
• There was no relation between mortality from coronary heart disease and alcohol consumption once adjustments were made for potential confounding factors
• There was a strong relation with mortality from stroke; drinkers of over 35 units a week had double the risk of mortality compared with non-drinkers
• Some but not all of this could be accounted for by alcohol related increases in blood pressure
• Overall, risk of all cause mortality was higher in men drinking 22 or more units a week

     

Gender Differences in Mental Health Outcomes before,during, and after the Great Recession

We examined gender differences in mental health outcomes during and post-recession versus pre-recession. We utilized 2005-2006, 2008-2009, and 2010-2011 data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Females had lower odds of depression diagnoses during and post-recession and better mental health during the recession, but higher odds of anxiety diagnoses post-recession. Males had lower odds of depression diagnoses and better mental health during and post-recession and lower Kessler 6 scores post-recession. We conducted stratified analyses, which confirmed that the aforementioned findings were consistent across the four different regions of the U.S., by employment status, income and health care utilization. Importantly, we found that the higher odds of anxiety diagnoses among females after the recession were mainly prominent among specific subgroups of females: those who lived in the Northeast or the Midwest, the unemployed, and those with low household income. Gender differences in mental health in association with the economic recession highlight the importance of policymakers taking these differences into consideration when designing economic and social policies to address economic downturns. Future research should examine the reasons behind the decreased depression diagnoses among both genders, and whether they signify decreased mental healthcare utilization or increased social support and more time for exercise and leisure activities.     

Change in alcohol consumption and risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the association between alcohol consumption and mortality from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease with a focus on differentiating between long term abstainers and more recent non-drinkers. DESIGN--Cohort study of changes in alcohol consumption from 1965 to 1974 and mortality from all causes and ischaemic heart disease during 1974-84. SETTING--Population based study of adult residents of Alameda County, California. SUBJECTS--2225 women and 1845 men aged 35 and over in 1965. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Alcohol consumption in 1964 and 1974 and mortality from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease during 1974-84. RESULTS--There was a significantly higher risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease in women who gave up drinking between 1965 and 1974 than in women who continued to drink (relative risk 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.66, and 2.75, 1.44 to 5.23, for all causes and ischaemic heart disease respectively). A significant increase in risk was not seen in men who gave up drinking (1.32, 0.87 to 2.01, and 0.95, 0.41 to 2.20, respectively). Among men, long term abstainers compared with drinkers were at increased risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease, though the associations were not significant (1.40, 0.98 to 2.00, and 1.40, 0.76 to 2.58, for all causes and ischaemic heart disease respectively). CONCLUSION--Some of the increased risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease associated with not drinking in women seems to be accounted for by higher risks among those who gave up drinking. Men who are long term abstainers may also be at an increased risk of death. The heterogeneity of the non-drinking group should be considered when comparisons are made with drinkers.     

Chronic binge-like moderate ethanol drinking in rats results in widespread decreases in brain serotonin, dopamine, and norepinephrine turnover rates reversed by ethanol intake

This research was initiated to assess the turnover rates (TORs) of dopamine (DA), norepinephrine (NA), serotonin (5-HT), aspartate, glutamate, and GABA in brain regions during rodent ethanol/sucrose (EtOH) and sucrose (SUC) drinking and in animals with a history of EtOH or SUC drinking to further characterize the neuronal systems that underlie compulsive consumption. Groups of five male rats were used, with two trained to drink EtOH solutions, two to drink SUC and one to serve as a non-drinking control. When stable drinking patterns were obtained, rats were pulse labeled intravenously and killed 60 or 90 min later and the TORs of DA, norepinephrine, 5-HT, aspartate, glutamate, and GABA determined in brain regions. Changes in the TOR of 5-HT, DA, and NA were detected specific to EtOH drinking, SUC drinking or a history of EtOH or SUC drinking. An acute EtOH deprivation effect was detected that was mostly reversed with EtOH drinking. These results suggest that binge-like drinking of moderate amounts of EtOH produces a deficit in neuronal function that could set the stage for the alleviation of anhedonic stimuli with further EtOH intake that strengthen EtOH seeking behaviors which may contribute to increased EtOH use in at risk individuals.     

Random integration of SV40 in SV40-transformed, immortalized human fibroblasts

We have studied the relationship between immortalization of SV40-transformed human embryonic fibroblasts and their SV40 integration sites. From several independently transformed cell pools, we have isolated clones which do not harbor unintegrated SV40 DNA. We have analysed whole-cell DNA from these clones, using the Southern blot method. Our results suggest that no specific integration sites in the cellular genome exist which are a prerequisite for the immortalization process. Although some integration sites were found to be predominant in pre-crisis clones, they could not be detected in the post-crisis clones. This suggests that none of these predominating sites is selected for during the crisis period.     

陕西省安康市居民健康相关行为及影响因素分析

目的:探讨陕西省安康市居民健康相关行为及影响因素,为以后开展安康市社区居民健康教育提供数据。方法:选择定额抽样法,对安康市的15岁以上的4500名居民的健康行为行为进行问卷调查,其中2370名医院门诊患者、2130名社区居民,问卷调查内容包含吸烟、酗酒、运动锻炼与获取卫生保健知识的主动性,采用Logistic回归、X2检验进行影响因素分析。结果:经过调查得知,12.9%吸烟者、6.9%的酗酒者、61.8%经常参加运动锻炼者、67.1%主动获取保健知识者。通过Logistic分析得知,年龄是酗酒、获取卫生知识主动性的影响因素;性别是影响吸烟、酗酒、获取卫生保健知识主动性的影响因素;文化程度是吸烟、酗酒、获取卫生保健知识主动性的影响因素;在业状况是运动锻炼、获取卫生保健知识主动性的影响因素。结论:经过本次调查分析后,陕西省安康市的居民健康相关行为主要与在业状况、性别与文化程度相关,协助城市居民养成良好的健康行为,健康教育主要目标是阻止危害健康的行为,以提高全民的健康水平。     

Risky Drinking Patterns Are Being Continued into Pregnancy: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Risky patterns of alcohol use prior to pregnancy increase the risk of alcohol-exposed pregnancies and subsequent adverse outcomes. It is important to understand how consumption changes once women become pregnant.

Objective

The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of women that partake in risky drinking patterns before pregnancy and to examine how these patterns change once they become pregnant.

Methods

A sample of 1577 women from the 1973–78 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health were included if they first reported being pregnant in 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009 and reported risky drinking patterns prior to that pregnancy. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine which risky drinking patterns were most likely to continue into pregnancy.

Results

When reporting risky drinking patterns prior to pregnancy only 6% of women reported weekly drinking only, whereas 46% reported binge drinking only and 48% reported both. Women in both binge categories were more likely to have experienced financial stress, not been partnered, smoked, used drugs, been nulliparous, experienced a violent relationship, and were less educated. Most women (46%) continued these risky drinking patterns into pregnancy, with 40% reducing these behaviors, and 14% completely ceasing alcohol consumption. Once pregnant, women who binged only prior to pregnancy were more likely to continue (55%) rather than reduce drinking (29%). Of the combined drinking group 61% continued to binge and 47% continued weekly drinking. Compared with the combined drinking group, binge only drinkers prior to pregnancy were less likely to reduce rather than continue their drinking once pregnant (OR = 0.37, 95% CI  =  0.29, 0.47).

Conclusions

Over a third of women continued risky drinking into pregnancy, especially binge drinking, suggesting a need to address alcohol consumption prior to pregnancy.     

When in America,do as the Americans? The evolution of health behaviors and outcomes across immigrant cohorts

This study seeks to understand US immigrants’ health-related behaviors and outcomes across arrival cohorts. We simultaneously examine risky consumption choices (smoking and drinking) and physical health conditions (asthma, diabetes, vision problems, and coronary heart diseases) using data from the National Health Interview Surveys (1989–2018). We incorporate cohort fixed-effects and the interactions between cohort effects and years since immigration into our empirical framework to capture the dynamics of immigrant health over time. For all health indicators, we find that there are important differences between arriving immigrants and natives. Despite some heterogeneity in the dynamics of unhealthy behaviors, this heterogeneity seems to dissipate as we explore longer-term health outcomes. Overall, our findings provide an interesting outlook on how the integration into the host society affects American immigrants’ health. We contribute new results to the immigrant assimilation literature, which has primarily focused on obesity and wages.     

Long-term effects of job loss on male health: BMI and health behaviors

Employment is one of the most critical determinants of health and health behaviors for adults. This study focuses on Ukraine and measures how an involuntary job loss – defined as job loss due to business closures, reorganizations, bankruptcies, or privatization – affects BMI, being overweight or obese, smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity. There are three reasons to study Ukraine in the aftermath of an enormous economic transition that resulted in employment contraction as high as 40 % compared to 1990. First, nearly all published studies on the relationship between job loss and health and health behaviors have been on developed countries, meaning that our study fills the gap in the literature on transition economies. Second, the job losses that we study are plausibly exogenous and affected a significant share of the population. Third, the longitudinal survey follows individuals for up to 10 years starting from 2003, allowing us to capture the long-term effects of past job loss on outcomes at a specific point in time and their trajectories across the life cycle. Applying growth-curve models, we show that past involuntary job loss significantly alters the age trajectories of all considered outcomes at both extensive and intensive margins.     

Replicated selection for 21-day pupa weight of Tribolium castaneum

Summary Response to upward selection in 10 replicate lines was linear through 15 generations, had slowed considerably in many lines by generation 23 and continued in other lines through 30 generations. The lines tended to group into those which responsed slowly during early generations and continued to respond through later generations and those which gave rapid early response and very low response later coupled with marked reduction in fitness. Response to downward selection was similar for 3 replicate lines but only 50% as great as that for the high lines. Response declined more rapidly in the low lines due to reduced fitness, declining selection differentials and a marked drop in phenotypic variance.     

Inherent high correlation of individual motility enhances population dispersal in a heterotrophic, planktonic protist

Quantitative linkages between individual organism movements and the resulting population distributions are fundamental to understanding a wide range of ecological processes, including rates of reproduction, consumption, and mortality, as well as the spread of diseases and invasions. Typically, quantitative data are collected on either movement behaviors or population distributions, rarely both. This study combines empirical observations and model simulations to gain a mechanistic understanding and predictive ability of the linkages between both individual movement behaviors and population distributions of a single-celled planktonic herbivore. In the laboratory, microscopic 3D movements and macroscopic population distributions were simultaneously quantified in a 1L tank, using automated video- and image-analysis routines. The vertical velocity component of cell movements was extracted from the empirical data and used to motivate a series of correlated random walk models that predicted population distributions. Validation of the model predictions with empirical data was essential to distinguish amongst a number of theoretically plausible model formulations. All model predictions captured the essence of the population redistribution (mean upward drift) but only models assuming long correlation times (minute), captured the variance in population distribution. Models assuming correlation times of 8 minutes predicted the least deviation from the empirical observations. Autocorrelation analysis of the empirical data failed to identify a de-correlation time in the up to 30-second-long swimming trajectories. These minute-scale estimates are considerably greater than previous estimates of second-scale correlation times. Considerable cell-to-cell variation and behavioral heterogeneity were critical to these results. Strongly correlated random walkers were predicted to have significantly greater dispersal distances and more rapid encounters with remote targets (e.g. resource patches, predators) than weakly correlated random walkers. The tendency to disperse rapidly in the absence of aggregative stimuli has important ramifications for the ecology and biogeography of planktonic organisms that perform this kind of random walk.     

Salmonid predator–prey dynamics in Lake Pend Oreille,Idaho, USA

Our objective was to evaluate the long-term sustainability of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush and rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss populations subjected to a range of fishing mortality (F) in Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho, USA, while providing for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus and kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka recovery. In order to achieve our objective, we developed a density-dependent stochastic predator–prey simulation model for the three major predators (lake trout, rainbow trout, and bull trout) on kokanee in Lake Pend Oreille. As F increased from 0.0 to 1.0, lake trout numbers in 2015 declined 90% for gillnetting, 76% for angling, and 48% for trap netting. At fishing mortality rates observed in Lake Pend Oreille during 2006, all methods combined and angling alone suppressed the lake trout population, but not gillnetting or trap netting alone. As F increased from 0.0 to 0.3, rainbow trout numbers in 2015 declined by 38%. Abundance of adult bull trout increased by 5.8% per year during 1996–2006, after implementation of no-kill regulations, which met the Federal Recovery Plan criterion of a stable or increasing trend in abundance. By 2010, total consumption of kokanee by lake trout, rainbow trout, and bull trout would increase by 20% if fishing mortality on lake trout and rainbow trout declined by 30% from 1996 levels, and would decrease by 14% if fishing mortality on lake trout and rainbow trout increased by 30% from 1996 levels. At rates of fishing mortality exerted on lake trout and rainbow trout in 2006, the likelihood of kokanee collapse was 65% within the next decade. Therefore, fishing mortality would need to be at least 6% higher on both lake trout and rainbow trout to reduce the likelihood of kokanee collapse to 50%. We conclude that kokanee biomass is presently out of balance with predation in Lake Pend Oreille, because kokanee production cannot compensate for all predation loss. Our findings suggest that a combination of unusually high kokanee production and unusually low predation are likely needed for kokanee to survive the next decade in Lake Pend Oreille.