Evaluation of the public health risk for autochthonous transmission of mosquito-borne viruses in southern Switzerland

Epidemics of mosquito-borne diseases such as chikungunya and dengue fever are becoming more frequent around the world. In Switzerland, autochthonous cases have not been reported so far, although the presence of the vector Aedes albopictus in urban areas of southern Switzerland increases the risk of indigenous transmissions subsequent to imported cases. In 2018, the potential risk of an outbreak of arboviral diseases was assessed in five municipalities of southern Switzerland. The population abundance of Ae. albopictus was evaluated during the mosquito active season by the mean number of Ae. albopictus bites per day per person (estimated using the human landing collection method) and the risk of outbreak in the case of the introduction of chikungunya, dengue or Zika viruses was estimated. In the five localities investigated, no epidemic risk appeared to be present for any of the arboviruses taken into consideration in the initial months (i.e. mid-May to end of July) of Ae. albopictus activity. In the case of the introduction of chikungunya (mutated or not), dengue (serotype 1) or Zika (African lineage) viruses during mid-end August, an epidemic could have occurred in all the municipalities investigated. In mid-end September, the introduction of same arboviruses could have led to an epidemic in three of the five municipalities investigated.     

Spatio-temporal clusters and patterns of spread of dengue,chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia

BackgroundColombia has one of the highest burdens of arboviruses in South America. The country was in a state of hyperendemicity between 2014 and 2016, with co-circulation of several Aedes-borne viruses, including a syndemic of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in 2015.Methodology/Principal findingsWe analyzed the cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika notified in Colombia from January 2014 to December 2018 by municipality and week. The trajectory and velocity of spread was studied using trend surface analysis, and spatio-temporal high-risk clusters for each disease in separate and for the three diseases simultaneously (multivariate) were identified using Kulldorff’s scan statistics. During the study period, there were 366,628, 77,345 and 74,793 cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, respectively, in Colombia. The spread patterns for chikungunya and Zika were similar, although Zika’s spread was accelerated. Both chikungunya and Zika mainly spread from the regions on the Atlantic coast and the south-west to the rest of the country. We identified 21, 16, and 13 spatio-temporal clusters of dengue, chikungunya and Zika, respectively, and, from the multivariate analysis, 20 spatio-temporal clusters, among which 7 were simultaneous for the three diseases. For all disease-specific analyses and the multivariate analysis, the most-likely cluster was identified in the south-western region of Colombia, including the Valle del Cauca department.Conclusions/SignificanceThe results further our understanding of emerging Aedes-borne diseases in Colombia by providing useful evidence on their potential site of entry and spread trajectory within the country, and identifying spatio-temporal disease-specific and multivariate high-risk clusters of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, information that can be used to target interventions.     

Climatic and socio-economic factors supporting the co-circulation of dengue,Zika and chikungunya in three different ecosystems in Colombia

Dengue, Zika and chikungunya are diseases of global health significance caused by arboviruses and transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, which is of worldwide circulation. The arrival of the Zika and chikungunya viruses to South America increased the complexity of transmission and morbidity caused by these viruses co-circulating in the same vector mosquito species. Here we present an integrated analysis of the reported arbovirus cases between 2007 and 2017 and local climate and socio-economic profiles of three distinct Colombian municipalities (Bello, Cúcuta and Moniquirá). These locations were confirmed as three different ecosystems given their contrasted geographic, climatic and socio-economic profiles. Correlational analyses were conducted with both generalised linear models and generalised additive models for the geographical data. Average temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed were strongly correlated with disease incidence. The transmission of Zika during the 2016 epidemic appeared to decrease circulation of dengue in Cúcuta, an area of sustained high incidence of dengue. Socio-economic factors such as barriers to health and childhood services, inadequate sanitation and poor water supply suggested an unfavourable impact on the transmission of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in all three ecosystems. Socio-demographic influencers were also discussed including the influx of people to Cúcuta, fleeing political and economic instability from neighbouring Venezuela. Aedes aegypti is expanding its range and increasing the global threat of these diseases. It is therefore vital that we learn from the epidemiology of these arboviruses and translate it into an actionable local knowledge base. This is even more acute given the recent historical high of dengue cases in the Americas in 2019, preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, which is itself hampering mosquito control efforts.     

Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014–2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia

Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymized line list data on approximately 105,000 Zika virus disease and 412,000 chikungunya fever suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases during the 2014–2017 epidemics. We first determined the week of invasion in each city. Out of 1,122, 288 cities met criteria for epidemic invasion by ZIKV and 338 cities by CHIKV. We analyzed risk factors for invasion using linear and logistic regression models. We also estimated that the geographic origin of both epidemics was located in Barranquilla, north Colombia. We assessed the spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of both viruses to analyze transmission between cities using a suite of (i) gravity models, (ii) Stouffer’s rank models, and (iii) radiation models with two types of distance metrics, geographic distance and travel time between cities. Invasion risk was best captured by a gravity model when accounting for geographic distance and intermediate levels of density dependence; Stouffer’s rank model with geographic distance performed similarly well. Although a few long-distance invasion events occurred at the beginning of the epidemics, an estimated distance power of 1.7 (95% CrI: 1.5–2.0) from the gravity models suggests that spatial spread was primarily driven by short-distance transmission. Similarities between the epidemics were highlighted by jointly fitted models, which were preferred over individual models when the transmission intensity was allowed to vary across arboviruses. However, ZIKV spread considerably faster than CHIKV.     

Estimating incidence of infection from diverse data sources: Zika virus in Puerto Rico, 2016

Emerging epidemics are challenging to track. Only a subset of cases is recognized and reported, as seen with the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic where large proportions of infection were asymptomatic. However, multiple imperfect indicators of infection provide an opportunity to estimate the underlying incidence of infection. We developed a modeling approach that integrates a generic Time-series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model with assumptions about reporting biases in a Bayesian framework and applied it to the 2016 Zika epidemic in Puerto Rico using three indicators: suspected arboviral cases, suspected Zika-associated Guillain-Barré Syndrome cases, and blood bank data. Using this combination of surveillance data, we estimated the peak of the epidemic occurred during the week of August 15, 2016 (the 33^rd week of year), and 120 to 140 (50% credible interval [CrI], 95% CrI: 97 to 170) weekly infections per 10,000 population occurred at the peak. By the end of 2016, we estimated that approximately 890,000 (95% CrI: 660,000 to 1,100,000) individuals were infected in 2016 (26%, 95% CrI: 19% to 33%, of the population infected). Utilizing multiple indicators offers the opportunity for real-time and retrospective situational awareness to support epidemic preparedness and response.     

Effectiveness of Wolbachia-infected mosquito deployments in reducing the incidence of dengue and other Aedes-borne diseases in Niterói,Brazil: A quasi-experimental study

BackgroundThe introduction of the bacterium Wolbachia (wMel strain) into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes reduces their capacity to transmit dengue and other arboviruses. Evidence of a reduction in dengue case incidence following field releases of wMel-infected Ae. aegypti has been reported previously from a cluster randomised controlled trial in Indonesia, and quasi-experimental studies in Indonesia and northern Australia.Methodology/Principal findingsFollowing pilot releases in 2015–2016 and a period of intensive community engagement, deployments of adult wMel-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were conducted in Niterói, Brazil during 2017–2019. Deployments were phased across four release zones, with a total area of 83 km² and a residential population of approximately 373,000. A quasi-experimental design was used to evaluate the effectiveness of wMel deployments in reducing dengue, chikungunya and Zika incidence. An untreated control zone was pre-defined, which was comparable to the intervention area in historical dengue trends. The wMel intervention effect was estimated by controlled interrupted time series analysis of monthly dengue, chikungunya and Zika case notifications to the public health surveillance system before, during and after releases, from release zones and the control zone. Three years after commencement of releases, wMel introgression into local Ae. aegypti populations was heterogeneous throughout Niterói, reaching a high prevalence (>80%) in the earliest release zone, and more moderate levels (prevalence 40–70%) elsewhere. Despite this spatial heterogeneity in entomological outcomes, the wMel intervention was associated with a 69% reduction in dengue incidence (95% confidence interval 54%, 79%), a 56% reduction in chikungunya incidence (95%CI 16%, 77%) and a 37% reduction in Zika incidence (95%CI 1%, 60%), in the aggregate release area compared with the pre-defined control area. This significant intervention effect on dengue was replicated across all four release zones, and in three of four zones for chikungunya, though not in individual release zones for Zika.Conclusions/SignificanceWe demonstrate that wMel Wolbachia can be successfully introgressed into Ae. aegypti populations in a large and complex urban setting, and that a significant public health benefit from reduced incidence of Aedes-borne disease accrues even where the prevalence of wMel in local mosquito populations is moderate and spatially heterogeneous. These findings are consistent with the results of randomised and non-randomised field trials in Indonesia and northern Australia, and are supportive of the Wolbachia biocontrol method as a multivalent intervention against dengue, chikungunya and Zika.     

Assessing the reporting of Dengue,Chikungunya and Zika to the National Surveillance System in Colombia from 2014–2017: A Capture-recapture analysis accounting for misclassification of arboviral diagnostics

BackgroundChikungunya, dengue, and Zika are three different arboviruses which have similar symptoms and are a major public health issue in Colombia. Despite the mandatory reporting of these arboviruses to the National Surveillance System in Colombia (SIVIGILA), it has been reported that the system captures less than 10% of diagnosed cases in some cities.Methodology/Principal findingsTo assess the scope and degree of arboviruses reporting in Colombia between 2014–2017, we conducted an observational study of surveillance data using the capture-recapture approach in three Colombian cities. Using healthcare facility registries (capture data) and surveillance-notified cases (recapture data), we estimated the degree of reporting by clinical diagnosis. We fit robust Poisson regressions to identify predictors of reporting and estimated the predicted probability of reporting by disease and year. To account for the potential misclassification of the clinical diagnosis, we used the simulation extrapolation for misclassification (MC-SIMEX) method. A total of 266,549 registries were examined. Overall arboviruses’ reporting ranged from 5.3% to 14.7% and varied in magnitude according to age and year of diagnosis. Dengue was the most notified disease (21–70%) followed by Zika (6–45%). The highest reporting rate was seen in 2016, an epidemic year. The MC-SIMEX corrected rates indicated underestimation of the reporting due to the potential misclassification bias.ConclusionsThese findings reflect challenges on arboviruses’ reporting, and therefore, potential challenges on the estimation of arboviral burden in Colombia and other endemic settings with similar surveillance systems.     

Prevention and control of dengue and chikungunya in Colombia: A cost-effectiveness analysis

BackgroundChikungunya and dengue are emerging diseases that have caused large outbreaks in various regions of the world. Both are both spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos. We developed a dynamic transmission model of chikungunya and dengue, calibrated to data from Colombia (June 2014 –December 2017).Methodology/Principal findingsWe evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of residual insecticide treatment, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, routine dengue vaccination for children aged 9, catchup vaccination for individuals aged 10–19 or 10–29, and portfolios of these interventions. Model calibration resulted in 300 realistic transmission parameters sets that produced close matches to disease-specific incidence and deaths. Insecticide was the preferred intervention and was cost-effective. Insecticide averted an estimated 95 chikungunya cases and 114 dengue cases per 100,000 people, 61 deaths, and 4,523 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In sensitivity analysis, strategies that included dengue vaccination were cost-effective only when the vaccine cost was 14% of the current price.Conclusions/SignificanceInsecticide to prevent chikungunya and dengue in Colombia could generate significant health benefits and be cost-effective. Because of limits on diagnostic accuracy and vaccine efficacy, the cost of dengue testing and vaccination must decrease dramatically for such vaccination to be cost-effective in Colombia. The vectors for chikungunya and dengue have recently spread to new regions, highlighting the importance of understanding the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies aimed at preventing these diseases.     

Impact of the introduction of chikungunya and zika viruses on the incidence of dengue in endemic zones of Mexico

BackgroundWith the arrival of chikungunya (CHIKV) and zika (ZIKV) viruses in Mexico, there was a decrease in diagnosed dengue virus (DENV) cases. During the first years of cocirculation (2015–2017), the algorithms established by epidemiological surveillance systems and the installed capacity limited us to one diagnostic test per sample, so there was an underestimation of cases until September 2017, when a multiplex algorithm was implemented. Therefore, the objective of this study was determine the impact of the introduction of CHIKV and ZIKV on the incidence of diagnosed DENV in endemic areas of Mexico, when performing the rediagnosis, using the multiplex algorithm, in samples from the first three years of co-circulation of these arboviruses.Methodology and principal findingsFor this, 1038 samples received by the Central Laboratory of Epidemiology between 2015 and 2017 were selected for this work. Viruses were identified by multiplex RT-qPCR, and the χ² test was used to compare categorical variables. With the new multiplex algorithm, we identified 2.4 times the rate of arbovirosis as originally reported, evidencing an underestimation of the incidence of the three viruses. Even so, significantly less dengue was observed than in previous years. The high incidence rates of chikungunya and Zika coincided with periods of dengue decline. The endemic channel showed that the cases caused by DENV rose again after the circulation of CHIKV and ZIKV decreased. In addition, 23 cases of coinfection were identified, with combinations between all viruses.Conclusions and significanceThe results obtained in this study show for the first time the real impact on the detected incidence of dengue after the introduction of CHIKV and ZIKV in Mexico, the degree of underestimation of these arboviruses in the country, as well as the co-infections between these viruses, whose importance clinical and epidemiological are still unknown.     

Facility-based disease surveillance and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate endemic typhoid fever incidence,Kilimanjaro Region,Tanzania, 2007–2018

Growing evidence suggests considerable variation in endemic typhoid fever incidence at some locations over time, yet few settings have multi-year incidence estimates to inform typhoid control measures. We sought to describe a decade of typhoid fever incidence in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. Cases of blood culture confirmed typhoid were identified among febrile patients at two sentinel hospitals during three study periods: 2007–08, 2011–14, and 2016–18. To account for under-ascertainment at sentinel facilities, we derived adjustment multipliers from healthcare utilization surveys done in the hospital catchment area. Incidence estimates and credible intervals (CrI) were derived using a Bayesian hierarchical incidence model that incorporated uncertainty of our observed typhoid fever prevalence, of healthcare seeking adjustment multipliers, and of blood culture diagnostic sensitivity. Among 3,556 total participants, 50 typhoid fever cases were identified. Of typhoid cases, 26 (52%) were male and the median (range) age was 22 (<1–60) years; 4 (8%) were aged <5 years and 10 (20%) were aged 5 to 14 years. Annual typhoid fever incidence was estimated as 61.5 (95% CrI 14.9–181.9), 6.5 (95% CrI 1.4–20.4), and 4.0 (95% CrI 0.6–13.9) per 100,000 persons in 2007–08, 2011–14, and 2016–18, respectively. There were no deaths among typhoid cases. We estimated moderate typhoid incidence (≥10 per 100 000) in 2007–08 and low (<10 per 100 000) incidence during later surveillance periods, but with overlapping credible intervals across study periods. Although consistent with falling typhoid incidence, we interpret this as showing substantial variation over the study periods. Given potential variation, multi-year surveillance may be warranted in locations making decisions about typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction and other control measures.     

The Hidden Burden of Dengue and Chikungunya in Chennai,India

Background

Dengue and chikungunya are rapidly expanding viruses transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes. Few epidemiological studies have examined the extent of transmission of these infections in South India despite an increase in the number of reported cases, and a high suitability for transmission.

Methods and findings

We conducted a household-based seroprevalence survey among 1010 individuals aged 5-40 years living in fifty randomly selected spatial locations in Chennai, Tamil Nadu. Participants were asked to provide a venous blood sample and to complete a brief questionnaire with basic demographic and daily activity information. Previous exposure to dengue and chikungunya was determined using IgG indirect ELISA (Panbio) and IgG ELISA (Novatec), respectively. We used this data to estimate key transmission parameters (force of infection and basic reproductive number) and to explore factors associated with seropositivity. While only 1% of participants reported history of dengue and 20% of chikungunya, we found that 93% (95%CI 89-95%) of participants were seropositive to dengue virus, and 44% (95%CI 37-50%) to chikungunya. Age-specific seroprevalence was consistent with long-tem, endemic circulation of dengue and suggestive of epidemic chikungunya transmission. Seropositivity to dengue and chikungunya were significantly correlated, even after adjusting for individual and household factors. We estimate that 23% of the susceptible population gets infected by dengue each year, corresponding to approximately 228,000 infections. This transmission intensity is significantly higher than that estimated in known hyperendemic settings in Southeast Asia and the Americas.

Conclusions

These results provide unprecedented insight into the very high transmission potential of dengue and chikungunya in Chennai and underscore the need for enhanced surveillance and control methods.     

Seroprevalence of dengue,Zika, chikungunya and Ross River viruses across the Solomon Islands

Across the Pacific, and including in the Solomon Islands, outbreaks of arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are increasing in frequency, scale and impact. Outbreaks of mosquito-borne disease have the potential to overwhelm the health systems of small island nations. This study mapped the seroprevalence of dengue, Zika, chikungunya and Ross River viruses in 5 study sites in the Solomon Islands. Serum samples from 1,021 participants were analysed by ELISA. Overall, 56% of participants were flavivirus-seropositive for dengue (28%), Zika (1%) or both flaviviruses (27%); and 53% of participants were alphavirus-seropositive for chikungunya (3%), Ross River virus (31%) or both alphaviruses (18%). Seroprevalence for both flaviviruses and alphaviruses varied by village and age of the participant. The most prevalent arboviruses in the Solomon Islands were dengue and Ross River virus. The high seroprevalence of dengue suggests that herd immunity may be a driver of dengue outbreak dynamics in the Solomon Islands. Despite being undetected prior to this survey, serology results suggest that Ross River virus transmission is endemic. There is a real need to increase the diagnostic capacities for each of the arboviruses to support effective case management and to provide timely information to inform vector control efforts and other outbreak mitigation interventions.     

Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya,dengue, malaria,yellow fever,and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review

BackgroundEarly warning systems (EWSs) are of increasing importance in the context of outbreak-prone diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika. A scoping review has been undertaken for all 5 diseases to summarize existing evidence of EWS tools in terms of their structural and statistical designs, feasibility of integration and implementation into national surveillance programs, and the users’ perspective of their applications.MethodsData were extracted from Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Google Scholar, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), PubMed, Web of Science, and WHO Library Database (WHOLIS) databases until August 2019. Included were studies reporting on (a) experiences with existing EWS, including implemented tools; and (b) the development or implementation of EWS in a particular setting. No restrictions were applied regarding year of publication, language or geographical area.FindingsThrough the first screening, 11,710 documents for dengue, 2,757 for Zika, 2,706 for chikungunya, 24,611 for malaria, and 4,963 for yellow fever were identified. After applying the selection criteria, a total of 37 studies were included in this review. Key findings were the following: (1) a large number of studies showed the quality performance of their prediction models but except for dengue outbreaks, only few presented statistical prediction validity of EWS; (2) while entomological, epidemiological, and social media alarm indicators are potentially useful for outbreak warning, almost all studies focus primarily or exclusively on meteorological indicators, which tends to limit the prediction capacity; (3) no assessment of the integration of the EWS into a routine surveillance system could be found, and only few studies addressed the users’ perspective of the tool; (4) almost all EWS tools require highly skilled users with advanced statistics; and (5) spatial prediction remains a limitation with no tool currently able to map high transmission areas at small spatial level.ConclusionsIn view of the escalating infectious diseases as global threats, gaps and challenges are significantly present within the EWS applications. While some advanced EWS showed high prediction abilities, the scarcity of tool assessments in terms of integration into existing national surveillance systems as well as of the feasibility of transforming model outputs into local vector control or action plans tends to limit in most cases the support of countries in controlling disease outbreaks.     

An Ecological Assessment of the Pandemic Threat of Zika Virus

The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a severe threat to human health. While the range of the virus has been cataloged growing slowly over the last 50 years, the recent explosive expansion in the Americas indicates that the full potential distribution of Zika remains uncertain. Moreover, many studies rely on its similarity to dengue fever, a phylogenetically closely related disease of unknown ecological comparability. Here we compile a comprehensive spatially-explicit occurrence dataset from Zika viral surveillance and serological surveys based in its native range, and construct ecological niche models to test basic hypotheses about its spread and potential establishment. The hypothesis that the outbreak of cases in Mexico and North America are anomalous and outside the native ecological niche of the disease, and may be linked to either genetic shifts between strains, or El Nino or similar climatic events, remains plausible at this time. Comparison of the Zika niche against the known distribution of dengue fever suggests that Zika is more constrained by the seasonality of precipitation and diurnal temperature fluctuations, likely confining autochthonous non-sexual transmission to the tropics without significant evolutionary change. Projecting the range of the diseases in conjunction with three major vector species (Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, and Ae. albopictus) that transmit the pathogens, under climate change, suggests that Zika has potential for northward expansion; but, based on current knowledge, our models indicate Zika is unlikely to fill the full range its vectors occupy, and public fear of a vector-borne Zika epidemic in the mainland United States is potentially informed by biased or limited scientific knowledge. With recent sexual transmission of the virus globally, we caution that our results only apply to the vector-borne transmission route of the pathogen, and while the threat of a mosquito-carried Zika pandemic may be overstated in the media, other transmission modes of the virus may emerge and facilitate naturalization worldwide.     

The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis

BackgroundLateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) tests could offer important new opportunities for the early detection of tuberculosis (TB). The currently licensed LAM test, Alere Determine TB LAM Ag (‘LF-LAM’), performs best in the sickest people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, the technology continues to improve, with newer LAM tests, such as Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM (‘SILVAMP-LAM’) showing improved sensitivity, including amongst HIV-negative patients. It is important to anticipate the epidemiological impact that current and future LAM tests may have on TB incidence and mortality.Methods and findingsConcentrating on South Africa, we examined the impact that widening LAM test eligibility would have on TB incidence and mortality. We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission to project the impact of LAM tests, distinguishing ‘current’ tests (with sensitivity consistent with LF-LAM), from hypothetical ‘future’ tests (having sensitivity consistent with SILVAMP-LAM). We modelled the impact of both tests, assuming full adoption of the 2019 WHO guidelines for the use of these tests amongst those receiving HIV care. We also simulated the hypothetical deployment of future LAM tests for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms, not restricted to PLHIV. Our model projects that 2,700,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2,000,000–3,600,000) and 420,000 (95% CrI 350,000–520,000) cumulative TB incident cases and deaths, respectively, would occur between 2020 and 2035 if the status quo is maintained. Relative to this comparator, current and future LAM tests would respectively avert 54 (95% CrI 33–86) and 90 (95% CrI 55–145) TB deaths amongst inpatients between 2020 and 2035, i.e., reductions of 5% (95% CrI 4%–6%) and 9% (95% CrI 7%–11%) in inpatient TB mortality. This impact in absolute deaths averted doubles if testing is expanded to include outpatients, yet remains <1% of country-level TB deaths. Similar patterns apply to incidence results. However, deploying a future LAM test for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms would avert 470,000 (95% CrI 220,000–870,000) incident TB cases (18% reduction, 95% CrI 9%–29%) and 120,000 (95% CrI 69,000–210,000) deaths (30% reduction, 95% CrI 18%–44%) between 2020 and 2035. Notably, this increase in impact arises largely from diagnosis of TB amongst those with HIV who are not yet in HIV care, and who would thus be ineligible for a LAM test under current guidelines. Qualitatively similar results apply under an alternative comparator assuming expanded use of GeneXpert MTB/RIF (‘Xpert’) for TB diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates qualitatively similar results in a setting like Kenya, which also has a generalised HIV epidemic, but a lower burden of HIV/TB coinfection. Amongst limitations of this analysis, we do not address the cost or cost-effectiveness of future tests. Our model neglects drug resistance and focuses on the country-level epidemic, thus ignoring subnational variations in HIV and TB burden.ConclusionsThese results suggest that LAM tests could have an important effect in averting TB deaths amongst PLHIV with advanced disease. However, achieving population-level impact on the TB epidemic, even in high-HIV-burden settings, will require future LAM tests to have sufficient performance to be deployed more broadly than in HIV care.

Saskia Ricks and colleagues model the impact of urine-LAM diagnostics for reducing tuberculosis incidence, across different implementation scenarios.     

Dengue,Zika, and Chikungunya viral circulation and hospitalization rates in Brazil from 2014 to 2019: An ecological study

BackgroundIn addition to their direct pathogenic effects, arthropod-borne (arboviruses) have been hypothesized to indirectly contribute to hospitalizations and death through decompensation of pre-existing comorbidities. Using nationwide data routinely collected from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2019 in Brazil, we investigated whether local increases in arbovirus notifications were associated with excess hospitalization.MethodsWe estimated the relative risks for the association between municipality- and state-level increases in arboviral case notifications and age-standardized hospitalization rates (i.e., classified as direct or indirect based on ICD-10 codes) using Bayesian multilevel models with random effects accounting for temporal and geographic correlations. For municipality-level analyses, we excluded municipalities with <200 notifications of a given arbovirus and further adjusted the models for the local Gini Index, Human Development Index, and Family Healthcare Strategy (Estratégia de Saúde da Família) coverage. Models for dengue, Zika, and chikungunya were performed separately.ResultsFrom 2014 to 2019, Brazil registered 7,566,330 confirmed dengue cases, 159,029 confirmed ZIKV cases, and 433,887 confirmed CHIKV cases. Dengue notifications have an endemic and seasonal pattern, with cases present in 5334 of the 5570 (95.8%) Brazilian municipalities and most (69.5%) registered between February and May. Chikungunya notifications followed a similar seasonal pattern to DENV but with a smaller incidence and were restricted to 4390 (78.8%) municipalities. ZIKV was only notified in 2581 (46.3%) municipalities. Increases in dengue and chikungunya notifications were associated with small increases in age-standardized arbovirus-related hospitalizations, but no consistent association was found with all-cause or other specific indirect causes of hospitalization. Zika was associated to increases in hospitalizations by neurological diseases.ConclusionsAlthough we found no clear association between increased incidence of the three arboviruses and excess risks of all-cause or indirect hospitalizations at the municipality- and state-levels, follow-up investigations at the individual-level are warranted to define any potential role of acute arbovirus infection in exacerbating risks of hospitalization from underlying conditions.     

A recent chikungunya outbreak associated with the occurrence of Aedes vectors (Diptera: Culicidae) in Kassala state,eastern Sudan in 2018

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) are primary vectors of human arboviral diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Aedes aegypti is well distributed in Sudan, except in Northern and Khartoum states, while Ae. albopictus has not been previously reported. Recently, Eastern Sudan witnessed an unprecedented large outbreak of chikungunya fever between 31 May 2018 and 30 March 2019. The outbreak was composed of four waves; one of them was in Kassala state. Aedes survey in localities of Kassala state (rather than Kassala city) is carried out to assess the possible expansion of the disease in the state. The results showed the presence of immature stages of Aedes spp. in four localities from ten localities. From the four localities that recorded Aedes spp., two localities (Rural Kassala and West Kassala) were reported with chikungunya cases. From this investigation, Ae. albopictus was reported for the first time in Sudan. Also, this investigation showed the importance of conducting entomological surveys with epidemiological surveys during outbreaks of arboviral diseases.     

Prevalence of dengue fever in Saudi Arabia: Jeddah as a case study

Dengue fever is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions, including Saudi Arabia. Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) transmits dengue and many other diseases, including chikungunya and Zika. This study provides an overview of dengue fever in Saudi Arabia since the first case was recorded in the early 1990s. In addition, it focuses on the epidemiological situation in Jeddah as a case study to study the spatial distribution of dengue cases using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques over 5 years, from 2019 to 2023. The first recorded case in Saudi Arabia was in October 1993; however, daily data indicates that 2023 is a major epidemic year. The number of infections has reached 4099 so far during the first half of the year, which indicates a significant increase compared to previous years. GIS analysis has unveiled the locations of high infection rates across multiple municipalities, commonly called hotspots, and identified areas where dengue cases remain relatively low. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) tool was used to determine the severity of infection in different areas of Jeddah. The study concluded that factors such as temperature, rainfall, and septic tanks in areas that lack a proper sanitation network are the most contributing factors to the spread of disease vectors and, thus, dengue. Winter rainfall creates conducive breeding environments for dengue mosquito vectors, increasing transmission rates. On the other hand, summer heat accelerates the mosquito life cycle and enhances viral replication, heightening the risk of dengue transmission.