A study on seasonal populations of potato leafhoppers in Kerman province of Iran

This study of potato leafhoppers population dynamics was conducted in Kerman province during 2005–2007. In this study Mahan, Bardsir and Lalehzar as the principal potato growing areas of Kerman province were selected. Sampling commenced at 40 days after planting on 8 June in Lalehzar region, 30 days after planting on 8 May in Bardsir and 55 days after planting on 4 May in Mahan. According to the results of this study 11 species belong to 11 genus; three families and six subfamilies were collected from three potato growing areas (Lalehzar, Bardsir, Mahan) during 2005–2007 and identified as follows: Empoasca decipiens, Psammotettix striatus, Unkanodes tanasijevici, Sogatella vibix, Exitianus fasciolatus, Euscelis alsius, Reptalus lindbergi, Pseudophlepsius binotatus, Circulifer sp., Macrosteles sp., Idiocerus sp. Statistical analysis revealed that Empoasca decipiens was the most abundant species in potato fields in Lalehzar, Bardsir and Mahan regions.     

Non-linear and linear forecasting of the EEG time series

The method of non-linear forecasting of time series was applied to different simulated signals and EEG in order to check its ability of distinguishing chaotic from noisy time series. The goodness of prediction was estimated, in terms of the correlation coefficient between forecasted and real time series, for non-linear and autoregressive (AR) methods. For the EEG signal both methods gave similar results. It seems that the EEG signal, in spite of its chaotic character, is well described by the AR model.     

Identification of the causative agent of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Chichaoua province, Morocco

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Morocco is caused by three species, Leishmania major, L. tropica and L. infantum. CL has been known in Chichaoua province since 2000. Using DNA extracted from microscopic slides and parasite cultures, collected in the years 2006 and 2009, we identified for the first time L. tropica as the causative agent of CL in this region. Species identification was achieved by performing the ITS1-PCR-RFLP approach. By using this method it was possible to identify parasites in Giemsa stained slides containing less than five parasites per oil-immersion field even they were conserved for up to four months.     

Fifty years of struggle to control cutaneous leishmaniasis in the highest endemic county in Iran: A longitudinal observation inferred with interrupted time series model

Negligible data are available following major social activities and environmental changes on leishmaniasis. Therefore, how interactions between these events influence cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) risk is not well-known. This longitudinal study was undertaken to explore the impact of interventions conducted between 1971 and 2020 in Bam county, which has had the highest disease burden in Iran. Only confirmed CL cases during this period were taken into account. Data were analyzed by SPSS 22 using the X² test to assess the significance of the difference between proportions. Moreover, we used interrupted time series (ITS) to assess the impact of three environmental events during this period. Overall, 40,164 cases of CL occurred in the past five decades. Multiple complex factors were among the leading causes that synergistically induced the emergence/re-emergence of CL outbreaks in Bam. The main factors attributed negatively to CL control were cessation of malaria spraying activity, expansion of the city spaces, and a massive earthquake creating new breeding potentials for the vectors. The highest impact on CL incidence during these years was related to the earthquake [coefficient = 17.8 (95% CI: 11.3, 22.7); p-value < 0.001]. Many factors can contribute to CL outbreaks in endemic foci. They also can cause new foci in new areas. Since humans are the single reservoir for CL in this area, early detection and effective management significantly contribute to controlling CL to reduce the disease burden. However, essential evidence gaps remain, and new tools are crucial before the disease can ultimately be controlled. Nevertheless, sustained funding and more trained task forces are essential to strengthen surveillance and case management and monitor the interventions’ impact.     

Temporal dynamics and impact of climate factors on the incidence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in central Tunisia

Background

Old world Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) is a vector-borne human disease caused by Leishmania major, a unicellular eukaryotic parasite transmitted by pool blood-feeding sand flies mainly to wild rodents, such as Psammomys obesus. The human beings who share the rodent and sand fly habitats can be subverted as both sand fly blood resource. ZCL is endemic in the Middle East, Central Asia, Subsaharan and North Africa. Like other vector-borne diseases, the incidence of ZCL displayed by humans varies with environmental and climate factors. However, so far no study has addressed the temporal dynamics or the impact of climate factors on the ZCL risk.

Principal Findings

Seasonality during the same epidemiologic year and interval between ZCL epidemics ranging from 4 to 7 years were demonstrated. Models showed that ZCL incidence is raising i) by 1.8% (95% confidence intervals CI:0.0–3.6%) when there is 1 mm increase in the rainfall lagged by 12 to 14 months ii) by 5.0% (95% CI: 0.8–9.4%) when there is a 1% increase in humidity from July to September in the same epidemiologic year.

Conclusion/Significance

Higher rainfall is expected to result in increased density of chenopods, a halophytic plant that constitutes the exclusive food of Psammomys obesus. Consequently, following a high density of Psammomys obesus, the pool of Leishmania major transmissible from the rodents to blood-feeding female sand flies could lead to a higher probability of transmission to humans over the next season. These findings provide the evidence that ZCL is highly influenced by climate factors that could affect both Psammomys obesus and the sand fly population densities.     

Ecology of sandflies (Diptera:Psychodidae) in a restricted focus of cutaneous leishmaniasis in northern Venezuela. IV. Sandfly monthly fluctuation and leishmaniasis incidence relationship

An attempt has been made to correlate the monthly incidence of human leishmaniasis with the temporal distribution of sandfly species at San Esteban, Northern Venezuela. Upon statistical analysis, the seasonal fluctuation of L. ovallesi population correlated strongly with the human disease, while the dynamics of L. panamensis, generally believed to be the vector in the Central area of the country, showed only a very weak correlation. These findings support the hypothesis that L. panamensis might not be the main or unique species responsible for the transmission in this area and that L. ovallesi and additionally L. olmeca bicolor might be involved in the epidemiology of the disease.     

Measuring the sero-prevalence of Leishmania donovani induced cutaneous leishmaniasis: A method comparison study

An in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) based on crude antigen of Leishmania reported a high sero-prevalence (82.0%) in Leishmania donovani induced cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Sri Lanka. ELISA was further compared with established serological tools to identify a suitable point of care diagnostic tool. Sero-prevalence of 100 CL samples were analyzed using in-house ELISA, Indian dipstick test and rK39 strip test. Results obtained were further compared with direct agglutination test (DAT) for 40 CL. Test performance was evaluated using Kappa index value. Clinico-epidemiological characteristics of patients were analyzed using SPSSv25.0. Cost analysis of tests was carried out. ELISA showed a high sero-positivity of 81.0% (n = 81/100) while DAT (57.5%,n = 23/40), Indian dipstick test (22.0%,n = 22/100) and rK39 test (15.0%,n = 15/100) showed a comparatively less sero-positivity. According to Kappa index values, there were no perfect agreement between tests. Among ELISA positive patients (n = 81/100), DAT, Indian dipstick test and rK39 demonstrated sero-positivity rates of 61.3% (n = 19/31), 25.9% (n = 21/81) and 16.0% (n = 13/81) respectively. Among ELISA negative patients (n = 19/100), three assays demonstrated sero-positivity rates of 44.4% (n = 4/9), 5.3% (n = 1/9) and 10.5% (n = 2/19) respectively. DAT can be used as an alternative test when ELISA is not available or negative. Clinico-epidemiological profiles of patients that showed sero-positivity by each assay were different. Cost per patient was approximately 5.5 USD for DAT and 3.0 USD for each other tests. Established serological tests demonstrated different and relatively lower detection rates. Species, strain and antigen heterogeneity, inconsistency in amount of used antigens, sera, antibody expression patterns and testing methodologies could be responsible. This study highlighted the importance of designing an in-house serological assay based on local parasite.     

Statistical modeling,forecasting and time series analysis of birch phenology in Montreal,Canada

The aim of this study was to analyse birch pollen time series observed in Montreal (Canada) in order to understand the link between inter-annual variability of phenology and environmental factors and to build predictive models for the upcoming pollen season. Modeling phenology is challenging, especially in Canada, where phenological observations are rare. Nevertheless, understanding phenology is required for scientific applications (e.g. inputs to numerical models of pollen dispersion) but also to help allergy sufferers to better prepare their medication and avoidance strategies before the start of the pollen season. We used multivariate statistical regression to analyse and predict phenology. The predictors were drawn from a large basin (over 60) of potential environmental predictors including meteorological data and global climatic indices such NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation index) and ENSO/MEI (Multivariate Enso Index). Results of this paper are summarized as follows: (1) an accurate forecast for the upcoming season starting date of the birch pollen season was obtained (showing low bias and total forecast error of about 4 days in Montreal), (2) NAO and ENSO/MEI indices were found to be well correlated (i.e. 44% of the variance explained) with birch phenology, (3) a long-term trend of 2.6 days per decade (p < 0.1) towards longer season duration was found for the length of the birch pollen season in Montreal. Finally, perturbations of the quasi-biennial cycle of birch were observed in the pollen data during the pollen season following the Great Ice Storm of 1998 which affected south-eastern Canada.     

Abundance of Lutzomyia ovallesi but not Lu. gomezi (Diptera: Psychodidae) correlated with cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in north-central Venezuela

In north-central Venezuela Lutzomyia gomezi and Lu. ovallesi are the main endophilic/anthropophilic species of phlebotomine sandflies implicated as vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). Lutzomyia ovallesi has been found infected with Leishmania braziliensis (1.2%) and less often with Le. mexicana (0.07%), while Le. braziliensis infections have also been found in Lu. gomezi (0.47%). We investigated population densities of these sandflies using two sampling methods with four series of collections between January 1991 and March 1995 at El Ingenio, Miranda State. All-night outdoor collections from a Shannon trap were correlated with indoor collections from CDC light–traps by linear regression, which proved to be statistically significant for both species. Estimated numbers of female sandflies per house per night were found to be proportional to monthly precipitation (i.e. rainfall), with a lag time of seven months for Lu. ovallesi and of six months for Lu. gomezi . Predominance of Lu. ovallesi over Lu. gomezi ( c. 10 :1 ) was observed throughout the year, with the number of infected females estimated as 0.043 ± 0.047 Lu. ovallesi and 0.0085 ± 0.0124 Lu. gomezi per CDC trap per house per night (ratio ∼ 5:1). The mean rate of new CL cases per house per year and sandfly abundance were correlated by linear regression, showing a statistically significant relationship for Lu. ovallesi but not for Lu. gomezi . The negative intercept indicated that, on average, the CDC trap density exceeds 800 Lu. ovallesi females/house/year before new CL cases occur at El Ingenio.     

Data estimation and the colour of time series.

There has been a long debate on the source of temporal fluctuations in natural population densities. The difficulty is that unpredictable irregularities might be attributed either to external environmental factors or to chaotic dynamics of populations, or even to the interaction of these two factors. Some years ago Cohen (1995) pointed out that real time series follow redshifted Fourier power spectra, while the simplest chaotic population dynamical models are mostly blueshifted. Since then, the controversy has focused on comparisons of Fourier spectra originating from different models and data. Here, we show experimentally that estimation process by human observers shifts power spectra to the red. This result implies that because of estimation distortion, real population data must be less redshifted than many recorded time series suggest.     

A new estimator of significance of correlation in time series data.

Many expression array experiments monitor gene activity as an organism goes through some biological process. It is desirable to find genes with similar expression patterns in the resulting time series data. We propose a new simulation approach that assesses the statistical significance of similarity scores between expression patterns. The simulation takes into account the dependence between columns of data.     

Isolation and in vivo behavior of the etiologic agent of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Italy

Tentatives of culturing in vivo and in vitro the etiological agent of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Italy have in the past been carried out by several authors without, however, obtaining stable culture. The use of LHC inbred hamsters, treated with cortisone acetate, gives the possibility of isolating the parasite from human cutaneous lesions. The parasite is localized in the internal organs (spleen, liver and bone marrow) of the host, regardless of the site of inoculation. The infection is similar to that caused by Leishmania infantum from human, canine and murine visceral leishmaniasis. In the subsequent passage in vivo the parasite infects LHC inbred hamsters and outbred hamsters without cortisone acetate. Intrinsic and extrinsic characters of the agent of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Italy are discussed.     

Effect of deltamethrin spraying on the sandfly populations in a focus of American cutaneous leishmaniasis.

The effect of deltamethrin of the sandfly population in a focus of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Viana, Espírito Santo State is described. The phlebotomine population density was determined inside and outside houses during a one year period in a treated and untreated area. The results showed a significant reduction in the number of sandflies inside houses in the treated area compared with both the untreated area and the same area before spraying. Despite having a residual action for 12 months after spraying the insecticide was ineffective outside houses. It is concluded therefore that deltamethrin is an efficient insecticide for reducing the number of phlebotomine sandflies inside houses.     

Effectiveness of vector control methods for the control of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis: A meta-review

Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Southeast Asia and global control of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and VL are priorities of the World Health Organization (WHO). But is the existing evidence good enough for public health recommendations? This meta-review summarises the available and new evidence for vector control with the aims of establishing what is known about the value of vector control for the control of CL and VL, establishing gaps in knowledge, and particularly focusing on key recommendations for further scientific work. This meta-review follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria, including (1) systematic reviews and meta-analyses (SRs/MAs) for (2) vector control methods and strategies and (3) for the control of CL and/or VL. Nine SRs/MAs were included, with different research questions and inclusion/exclusion criteria. The methods analysed for vector control can be broadly classified into (1) indoor residual spraying (IRS); (2) insecticide-treated nets (ITNs; including insecticide-impregnated bednets); (3) insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs; including insecticide-treated house screening); (4) insecticide-treated bedsheets (ITSs) and insecticide-treated fabrics (ITFs; including insecticide-treated clothing) and (5) durable wall lining (treated with insecticides) and other environmental measures to protect the house; (6) control of the reservoir host; and (7) strengthening vector control operations through health education. The existing SRs/MAs include a large variation of different primary studies, even for the same specific research sub-question. Also, the SRs/MAs are outdated, using available information until earlier than 2018 only. Assessing the quality of the SRs/MAs, there is a considerable degree of variation. It is therefore very difficult to summarise the results of the available SRs/MAs, with contradictory results for both vector indices and—if available—human transmission data. Conclusions of this meta-review are that (1) existing SRs/MAs and their results make policy recommendations for evidence-based vector control difficult; (2) further work is needed to establish efficacy and community effectiveness of key vector control methods with specific SRs and MAs (3) including vector and human transmission parameters; and (4) attempting to conclude with recommendations in different transmission scenarios.     

Note on the history of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Mediterranean and Middle East area

There exist records of what seems to be cutaneous leishmaniasis at least as far back as 650 BC, and possibly much earlier in the Tigris/Euphrates basin. It was described by Avicenna in the 10th century AD, and was well-known in Aleppo and Baghdad by the 18th century AD. Cutaneous leishmaniasis due to Leishmania infantum may have occurred in Crete in the 18th century. Artificial transmission was effected in Algeria and Aleppo in the 18th century.     

1959—2006年长白山地区降水序列的多时间尺度分析

基于长白山地区松江、东岗、长白、和龙、临江和天池6个气象站1959—2006年的月均降水量和年降水量数据,采用Morlet小波分析方法,对1959—2006年长白山地区植被生长季（5—9月）降水量、降雪季（11月至次年4月）降水量和年降水量序列进行多尺度特征分析,并运用Daubechies小波系中的db5小波对各降水序列进行不同层次的分解和低频重构,对重构序列进行了趋势识别和分析.结果表明：研究期间,长白山地区植被生长季降水量存在3～6 a、10～13 a和24～30 a的特征周期;降雪季降水量存在1～2 a、5～7 a和17～20 a的特征周期;年降水存在8～10 a、16～20 a、25～30 a的特征周期;研究区年降水量序列呈现整体下降的趋势.