Duration of ovarian hormone exposure and gynecological cancer risk in Korean women: the Korean Heart Study

BackgroundAlthough reproductive and hormonal factors – such as early menarche and late menopause – have been reported as independent risk factors for cancer, few studies have examined these factors in East Asian populations.MethodsWe performed a large prospective cohort study of 66,466 women. Ovarian hormone exposure was defined as length of time between menarche and menopause. Incidence rates for breast, ovarian, endometrial and cervical cancers were examined separately in relation to reproductive lifespan defined as age at menopause minus age at menarche. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsWomen with early menarche were at increased risk for developing breast cancer (HR, 1.57, 95% CI, 1.17–2.10) for age at menarche ≤12 years compared to women with age at menarche ≥17 years. Women with late age at menopause (≥52 years) had increased risks for cancers of the breast (HR, 1.59, 95%CI, 1.11–2.28) and ovary (HR, 3.22, 95% CI, 1.09–9.55) compared to women with early menopause (≤45 years of age). Women with longer duration of ovarian hormone exposure (≥40 years) were at increased risk for developing breast cancer (HR, 2.23, 95% CI, 1.35–3.68) as well as endometrial cancer (p for trend, 0.0209).ConclusionsWe showed that longer reproductive spans are associated with an increased risk of breast and endometrial cancer in Korean women.     

Short term increase in risk of breast cancer after full term pregnancy.

To determine whether there is a short term increase in the risk of breast cancer after a full term birth data from two hospital based, case-control studies in Italy were pooled. Analysis was restricted to women aged under 50 with two or more children (573 women with cancer and 570 controls). A relative risk for breast cancer of 2.66 was seen in women who had given birth during the three years preceding the interview compared with women whose last birth had occurred 10 or more years before, after adjustment for age, age at first birth, and parity. The relative risk slowly decreased for women who had last given birth three to 10 years before. Multivariate analyses confirmed the protective effect of an early age at first birth and the age dependent effect of parity on the risk of breast cancer--that is, a direct relation below age 40 and an inverse one in older women. These data provide epidemiological evidence that a full term birth is followed by a transient increase in the risk of breast cancer, which for some time contrasts with and overcomes the long term protection of pregnancy at an early age. They therefore confirm predictions from animal studies and theoretical models that pregnancy prevents the early stages of breast carcinogenesis but promotes the late stages of the process.     

Reproductive factors and breast cancer risk in Palestine: A case control study

BackgroundEarly age at menarche, late age at menopause, and late age at first full-term pregnancy are linked to a modest increase in the risk of developing breast cancer (breast ca). This study aims to investigate the reproductive determinants of breast cancer among women in the West Bank of Palestine.A structured questionnaire was used to collect data in a case-control study (237 registered cases and 237 controls). A multivariate analysis model was used to adjust for the association between women’s reproductive factors and breast ca risk. This study was approved by Al Quds University Ethical Research Committee and the Ministry of Health research unit.ResultsIn the multivariate analysis, menarche after 13 years of age, use of oral contraceptives for more than two months, and hormonal contraceptives use significantly doubled the risk for breast ca (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 2.03, 95 % CI: 1.21–4.37, p < 0.011 and AOR = 2.2, 95 % CI: 1.24–4.01, p = 0.008, respectively). Women who used hormone replacement therapy (HRT) were significantly associated with higher odds (5 folds) of having breast ca versus those who did not use them (AOR 5.02, 95 % CI: 1.93–13.06, p = 0.001). Similarly, nulliparous women showed 6 times the odds of breast ca compared with women with one or more children (p = 0.005). Also, parental consanguinity marriage (AOR 2.59, 95 % CI: 1.53–4.36, p = 0.001) and positive family history (AOR 3.88, 95 % CI: 2.19–6.87, p = 0.001) of the condition can be strong determinants for breast ca in this study.ConclusionThis study provides clear evidence that the use of reproductive hormones, whether as a birth control tool or for therapeutic purposes, must be rationalized worldwide and in Palestine in particular.     

Risks and probabilities of breast cancer: short-term versus lifetime probabilities.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate age-specific short-term and lifetime probabilities of breast cancer among a cohort of Canadian women. DESIGN: Double decrement life table. SETTING: Alberta. SUBJECTS: Women with first invasive breast cancers registered with the Alberta Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime probability of breast cancer from birth and for women at various ages; short-term (up to 10 years) probability of breast cancer for women at various ages. RESULTS: The lifetime probability of breast cancer is 10.17% at birth and peaks at 10.34% at age 25 years, after which it decreases owing to a decline in the number of years over which breast cancer risk will be experienced. However, the probability of manifesting breast cancer in the next year increases steadily from the age of 30 onward, reaching 0.36% at 85 years. The probability of manifesting the disease within the next 10 years peaks at 2.97% at age 70 and decreases thereafter, again owing to declining probabilities of surviving the interval. CONCLUSIONS: Given that the incidence of breast cancer among Albertan women during the study period was similar to the national average, we conclude that currently more than 1 in 10 women in Canada can expect to have breast cancer at some point during their life. However, risk varies considerably over a woman''s lifetime, with most risk concentrated after age 49. On the basis of the shorter-term age-specific risks that we present, the clinician can put breast cancer risk into perspective for younger women and heighten awareness among women aged 50 years or more.     

Five-year survival of women with breast cancer in northern Alberta.

Five-year survival rates for all 519 women with breast carcinoma in northern Alberta in 1971 and 1972 were analysed with the use of data from the computerized northern Alberta breast registry and the Alberta cancer registry. The relative 5-year survival was 73%, which is higher than most rates reported from other centres. Lymph node involvement was significant as a prognostic factor, with the relative 5-year survival falling from 92% in the group without lymph node involvement to 58% in the group with three or more involved nodes. The prognosis was also significantly affected by the stage of the disease according to the 1973 TNM classification: the 5-year survival rates ranged from 88% for patients with stage 1 disease to 17% for those with stage IV disease. Women 40 to 59 years of age had a higher survival rate (79%) than those under 40 years (65%) or over 60 years (66%) of age. Analyses by 5-year age groups showed that women 35 to 39 years old had a particularly poor survival rate (59%). Postmenopausal women less than 55 years old had a higher survival rate than did perimenopausal or premenopausal women in the same age group. Further follow-up is indicated to correlate possible high-risk factors with survival.     

Reproductive life of some Gujar women of Punjab

Data was collected on current age, age at menarche, marriage age, maternal age at 1st birth, age at the birth of last child, age at menopause, total number of conceptions, live births, stillbirths, abortions, dead children and living children for a sample of 150 Gunjar women of Punjab, India, during September and October 1977 to study their reproductive life. The women ranged in age from 45-55 years. The mean age at menarche was 14.90 years for the sample. The median age at menopause was 46.20 years. The mean age at marriage of the present sample was 12.56+-2.50 years; the mean age of the mother at the birth of her 1st child was 16.85 years; and the mean age at the birth of the last child was 38.68 years. The average number of conceptions was 7.2; the average number of live births of these 150 women was 6.90. The fertility of this population was natural as they were not using any family planning method.     

Reproductive and external hormonal factors and the risk of renal cell cancer in the Netherlands Cohort Study

BackgroundSeveral reproductive and hormonal factors, like age at menarche, parity, age at menopause, use of oral contraceptives and postmenopausal treatment, have been associated with the risk of renal cell cancer (RCC) in women, but results have not always been consistent. We therefore investigated the association between these factors and the risk of RCC in postmenopausal women participating in the Netherlands Cohort Study on Diet and Cancer.MethodsInformation on reproductive history, exogenous hormone use and gynecological surgery was obtained through a self-administered questionnaire at baseline in 1986. After 20.3 years of follow-up, 204 cases and 2280 subcohort members were available for case-cohort analysis. Multivariable hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using Cox Proportional Hazard analysis.ResultsWomen who reported a hysterectomy had an increased RCC risk compared to women who did not (HR, 1.42, 95%CI, 1.01–2.00). Women with a natural age at menopause between 45 and 49 years compared to 50–54 years had an increased RCC risk (HR, 1.61; 95%CI, 1.10–2.35). RCC risk was slightly and not statistically significant increased among parous women with three or more children and age at first birth before 25 years compared to nulliparous women (HR, 1.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.84–2.20). No associations were observed with RCC risk for age at menarche, use of oral contraceptives and use of hormonal replacement therapy.ConclusionHysterectomy and age at natural menopause were associated with an increased RCC risk. Other hormonal and reproductive factors and RCC risk were not increased. Further studies are required to establish the mechanism(s) that explain the observed association.     

Menopause in Blackfeet women--a life span perspective

A lifespan perspective, combining quantitative and qualitative approaches, is used to examine factors related to the timing of menopause in Blackfeet women of northern Montana (USA). Cross-sectional survey data demonstrate a median age at menopause using a status quo method of 51.6 years, and a mean age of 47.0 +/- 5.0 years among those women who had already experienced menopause. Age at menopause is inversely associated with age at menarche and having been breastfed, and positively associated with use of contraceptives, household income, and current or recent employment. Household income and age at menarche influence menopause age jointly in multivariate models. These and other patterns are examined in the lives of two women with very divergent ages at menopause. Although these data support an effect of early life influences on shaping reproductive trajectories that culminate in menopause, environmental factors and human agency during adult life may play a modifying role.     

Risk factors for breast cancer in the breast cancer risk model study of Guam and Saipan

BackgroundChamorro Pacific Islanders in the Mariana Islands have breast cancer incidence rates similar to, but mortality rates higher than, those of U.S. women. As breast cancer risk factors of women of the Mariana Islands may be unique because of ethnic and cultural differences, we studied established and suspected risk factors for breast cancer in this unstudied population.MethodsFrom 2010–2013, we conducted retrospective case-control study of female breast cancer (104 cases and 185 controls) among women in the Mariana Islands. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for each of various lifestyle-related factors from logistic regression of breast cancer, in all women and in pre- and postmenopausal women separately. Tests for interaction of risk factors with ethnicity were based on the Wald statistics for cross-product terms.ResultsOf the medical and reproductive factors considered — age at menarche, breastfeeding, number of live births, age at first live birth, hormone use, and menopause — only age at first live birth was confirmed. Age at first live birth, among parous women, was higher among cases (mean 24.9 years) than controls (mean 23.2 years); with increased breast cancer risk (OR = 2.53; 95% CI, 1.04–6.19 for age ≥ 30y compared to <20y, P for trend = 0.01). Of the lifestyle factors —body mass index, waist circumference, physical activity, alcohol and betel-nut intake, and education — only waist circumference (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 0.87–3.14 for the highest tertile group compared to the lowest, P for trend = 0.04) was significantly associated with breast cancer risk and only in Filipino women. The association with many other established risk factors, such as BMI, hormone use and physical activity, were in the expected direction but were not significant. Associations for family history of breast cancer and alcohol intake were not evidentConclusionsThe results provide a basis for cancer prevention guidance for women in the Mariana Islands.     

Risk factors and risk reduction of breast cancer

Because of its increasing incidence, breast cancer is a significant burden for women worldwide. In industrialized countries, breast cancer is the second-leading cause of cancer-related deaths among women, and it is estimated that 1 in every 8 women will develop the disease during her lifetime. Sufficient evidence indicates that a number of genetic, environmental and lifestyle risk exposures during life may play important roles in the etiology of this disease. The purpose of this paper is to review some etiologic factors and underlying mechanisms in relation to breast cancer risk. Based on the published literature, there is sufficient evidence that some established factors are associated with breast cancer risk. Age, early age at menarche, late menopause, height, post-menopausal obesity, family history of breast cancer, ionizing radiation, oral contraceptives, hormonal replacement therapy, mammographic density, some gene mutations and clinical conditions, such as benign breast disease, are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. The risk decreases with early childbearing, high parity and physical activity, and breastfeeding. Alcohol increases the risk, while caloric restriction may confer protection from breast cancer. Epidemiological evidence for other nutritional factors is insufficient. These results suggest that breast cancer is a multifactorial disease where genetic susceptibility, environment, nutrition and other lifestyle risk factors interact. Better identification of modifiable risk factors and risk reduction of breast cancer may allow implementation of useful strategies for prevention.     

Korean Risk Assessment Model for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

Purpose

We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk.

Methods

Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail''s equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort.

Results

The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women.     

Tumor Subtype-Specific Associations of Hormone-Related Reproductive Factors on Breast Cancer Survival

Purpose

It is inconclusive whether reproductive factors, which are known as risk factors of breast cancer, also influence survival. We investigated overall and subtype-specific associations between reproductive factors and breast cancer survival.

Methods

Among 3,430 incident breast cancer patients who enrolled in the Seoul Breast Cancer Study, 269 patients (7.8%) died and 528 patients (15.4%) recurred. The overall and subtype-specific associations of reproductive factors including age at menarche and menopause, duration of estrogen exposure, menstrual cycle, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy, number of children, age at last birth, time since the last birth, and duration of breastfeeding, on overall and disease-free survival (OS and DFS) were estimated by hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

An older age at menarche (HR for OS=1.10, 95% CI=1.03-1.19), a greater number of children (≥4 vs. 2, HR for DFS=1.58, 95% CI=1.11-2.26), and a shorter time since last birth (<5 vs. ≥20 years, HR for DFS=1.67, 95% CI=1.07-2.62) were associated with worse survival while longer duration of estrogen exposure with better survival (HR for DFS=0.97, 95% CI=0.96-0.99). In the stratified analyses by subtypes, those associations were more pronounced among women with hormone receptor and human epidermal growth factor 2 positive (HR+ HER2+) tumors.

Conclusions

It is suggested that reproductive factors, specifically age at menarche, number of children, time since last birth, and duration of estrogen exposure, could influence breast tumor progression, especially in the HR+ HER2+ subtype.     

Risk factors for breast cancer in women biopsied for benign breast disease: A nested case-control study

Aim: Women with a history of benign breast disease are at increased risk of subsequent breast cancer. However, few studies have examined whether established breast cancer risk factors other than histology are associated with an altered risk of breast cancer in women with benign breast disease. We used a nested case-control design within a large, multi-center cohort of women biopsied for benign breast disease (BBD) to estimate odds ratios for breast cancer in association with exposure to a range of personal and lifestyle factors. Methods: Cases were women biopsied for BBD who subsequently developed breast cancer; controls were individually matched to cases on center and age at diagnosis and were women biopsied for BBD who did not develop breast cancer in the same follow-up interval as that for the cases. After excluding women with prevalent breast cancer, 1357 records (661 case records and 696 records) were available for analysis. We used conditional logistic regression to obtain crude and multivariable-adjusted estimates of the association between specific factors and risk of breast cancer. Results: In multivariable analyses age at first live birth, number of pregnancies, and postmenopausal status were inversely associated with risk of breast cancer. The odds ratio for women with age at first birth <25 years and ≥3 pregnancies, relative to nulliparous women, was 0.49, 95% confidence interval 0.13–0.79, and that for postmenopausal women relative to premenopausal women was 0.60, 95% CI 0.37–0.99. Conclusions: Further study of personal factors influencing the risk of breast cancer in women with BBD may help to identify subgroups of the population at increased risk of invasive disease.     

Hormonal and reproductive risk factors of papillary thyroid cancer: A population-based case-control study in France

The three times higher incidence of thyroid cancer in women compared to men points to a role of female sex hormones in its etiology. However the effects of these factors are poorly understood. We analyzed the association between thyroid cancer and hormonal and reproductive factors among women enrolled in CATHY, a population-based case-control study conducted in France. The study included 430 cases of papillary thyroid cancer and 505 controls frequency-matched on age and area of residence. The odds ratios for thyroid cancer increased with age at menarche (p trend 0.05). Postmenopausal women were at increased risk, as compared to premenopausal women, particularly if menopause followed an ovariectomy, and for women with age at menopause < 55 years. In addition, use of oral contraceptives and menopausal hormone therapy reduced the association with thyroid cancer by about one third, and breastfeeding by 27%. Overall, these findings provide evidence that the risk of thyroid cancer increases with later age at menarche and after menopause, and decreases with use of oral contraceptives and menopausal hormone therapy. These findings confirm an implication of hormonal factors in papillary thyroid cancer risk, whose mechanisms need to be elucidated.     

Risk Prediction for Breast,Endometrial, and Ovarian Cancer in White Women Aged 50 y or Older: Derivation and Validation from Population-Based Cohort Studies

Background

Breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancers share some hormonal and epidemiologic risk factors. While several models predict absolute risk of breast cancer, there are few models for ovarian cancer in the general population, and none for endometrial cancer.

Methods and Findings

Using data on white, non-Hispanic women aged 50+ y from two large population-based cohorts (the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial [PLCO] and the National Institutes of Health–AARP Diet and Health Study [NIH-AARP]), we estimated relative and attributable risks and combined them with age-specific US-population incidence and competing mortality rates. All models included parity. The breast cancer model additionally included estrogen and progestin menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use, other MHT use, age at first live birth, menopausal status, age at menopause, family history of breast or ovarian cancer, benign breast disease/biopsies, alcohol consumption, and body mass index (BMI); the endometrial model included menopausal status, age at menopause, BMI, smoking, oral contraceptive use, MHT use, and an interaction term between BMI and MHT use; the ovarian model included oral contraceptive use, MHT use, and family history or breast or ovarian cancer. In independent validation data (Nurses'' Health Study cohort) the breast and ovarian cancer models were well calibrated; expected to observed cancer ratios were 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96–1.04) for breast cancer and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.97–1.19) for ovarian cancer. The number of endometrial cancers was significantly overestimated, expected/observed = 1.20 (95% CI: 1.11–1.29). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs; discriminatory power) were 0.58 (95% CI: 0.57–0.59), 0.59 (95% CI: 0.56–0.63), and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66–0.70) for the breast, ovarian, and endometrial models, respectively.

Conclusions

These models predict absolute risks for breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancers from easily obtainable risk factors and may assist in clinical decision-making. Limitations are the modest discriminatory ability of the breast and ovarian models and that these models may not generalize to women of other races. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The prevalence and correlates of breast cancer among women in Eastern China

The purpose was to investigate the prevalence rate, characteristics and related factors of breast cancer among women in Eastern China. A total of 122,058 female subjects completed the study, with 320 confirmed cases of breast cancer (crude prevalence: 262.5/100,000; standardized prevalence: 207.7/100,000). Among all of the identified breast cancer cases, 91.6% were diagnosed after the age of 35 and 60.0% were diagnosed before menopause. The odds ratios (95% confidence interval) of those breast cancer risk factors as selected through multivariate logistic regression were as follows: 5.438 (1.553-19.004) for family history of breast cancer, 3.556 (1.880-6.728) for high behavior intervention score, 3.556 (0.904-13.994) for history of diabetes, 3.357 (1.131-9.969) for history of benign breast tumors, 2.196 (1.355-3.556) for poor overall life satisfaction, 1.826 (0.995-3.350) for premenopause of breast cancer, 1.528 (1.083-2.155) for high BMI index, 1.500 (0.920-2.446) for poor financial status, 1.497 (1.014-2.211) for multiple miscarriages/abortions, and 1.231 (0.972-1.559) for infrequent consumption of garlic (frequent garlic consumption is a protective factor). There were significantly more cases of breast cancer diagnosed prior to menopause than after menopause, and most of the patients were diagnosed after the age of 35. These findings suggest that attention should be focused on the incidence of breast cancer among premenopausal women older than 35.     

Age at First Delivery and Osteoporosis Risk in Korean Postmenopausal Women: The 2008–2011 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES)

It has been reported in several studies that there may be a significant correlation between reproductive history and the risk of osteoporosis due to the effect of estrogen. Under this hypothesis, however, it is unclear whether the age at first delivery has any major influences on the risk of osteoporosis. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the relationship between the age at first delivery and the risk of osteoporosis in Korean menopausal women. This study was performed using data from the 2008–2011 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and included 2,530 Korean postmenopausal women. The diagnosis of osteoporosis was made using the World Health Organization T-score criteria (T-score ≤ -2.5, at the femoral neck or lumbar spine). Participants were categorized into 3 groups according to age at first delivery: ≤23, 24–29, and ≥30 years. Older age, lower body mass index, lower calcium intake, later menarche, and earlier menopause increased the risk of osteoporosis, whereas hormone therapy and oral contraceptive use were associated with a decreased risk of osteoporosis. Postmenopausal women whose first delivery occurred at age 24–29 years were shown to have a significantly increased risk of osteoporosis (odds ratio, 2.124; 95% confidence interval, 1.096–4.113; P = 0.026) compared to those who first gave birth after the age of 30 years. These findings suggest that postmenopausal women whose first delivery occurred in their mid to late 20s, a period during which bone mass slowly accumulates to the peak, are at an increased risk of osteoporosis.     

Breast cancer in northern Alberta: pilot study in computerized registration.

Analysis of data from 643 breast cancer patients seen between 1971 and 1973 in northern Alberta was undertaken as a preliminary study leading towards a comprehensive breast registry. Age at first treatment and menopausal status were found to be related significantly to the clinical stage of the disease. Other data reported included age at menarche, lymph node involvement and methods of primary treatment. A decline in use of the radical mastectomy was noted. The comprehensive breast registry, which will be used to identify high-risk groups, assess treatment modalities, test hypotheses and generate ideas, has a high probability of success because of compulsory registration of new cases of breast cancer in Alberta and collection of data by the same four individuals.     

Time since childbirth and prognosis in primary breast cancer: population based study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether time since birth of last child was of prognostic importance in women with primary breast cancer. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study based on a population based database of breast cancer diagnoses with detailed information on tumour characteristics, treatment regimens, reproductive factors, and vital status. SETTING: Denmark. SUBJECTS: 5652 women with primary breast cancer aged 45 years or less at the time of diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 5 and 10 year survival; relative risk of dying. RESULTS: Women diagnosed in the first 2 years after last childbirth had a crude 5 year survival of 58.7% and 10 year survival of 46.1% compared with 78.4% and 66.0% for women whose last childbirth was more than 2 years before their diagnosis. After adjustment for age, reproductive factors, and stage of disease (tumour size, axillary nodal status, and histological grading), a diagnosis sooner than 2 years since last childbirth was significantly associated with a poor survival (relative risk 1.58, 95% confidence interval 1.24 to 2.02) compared with women who gave birth more than 5 years previously. Further analyses showed that the effect was not modified by age at diagnosis, tumour size, and nodal status. CONCLUSIONS: A diagnosis of breast cancer less than 2 years after having given birth is associated with a particularly poor survival irrespective of the stage of disease at debut. Therefore, a recent pregnancy should be regarded as a negative prognostic factor and should be considered in counselling these patients and in the decisions regarding adjuvant treatment.     

Is there a real risk of radiation-induced breast cancer for postmenopausal women?

The risk of radiation-induced breast cancer decreases with increasing age at exposure. Thus, for calculating the individual risk for a patient undergoing mammography, age-related risk coefficients need to be used. In this report, the results of epidemiological studies on risks of radiation-induced breast cancer are reviewed indicating that the available data do not show the risk to be enhanced for women exposed at the age of 55 years or older. This lack of evidence is reflected by the fact that the risk coefficients recommended by national and international advisory bodies differ by a factor of 10 or more for age at exposure of 50–60 years or older. A hypothesis is proposed indicating that the risk of radiation-induced breast cancer might decrease considerably at the time of menopause. The hypothesis is based on the following line of arguments: (1) evidence has accumulated from molecular genetic studies indicating that the development of colorectal cancer requires a cascade of subsequent mutations consisting of at least seven genetic events. (2) For colorectal cancer, the annual rates of incidence and mortality increase with age to the power of 5–6. Thus, the number of mutation steps (minus 1) is approximately reflected by the power of age dependence. (3) For western populations, the incidence and mortality of breast cancer up to the age of about 50 years increase with age to the power of about 6, indicating that a similar number of genetic events might be involved in development of breast cancer as has been identified for colorectal cancer. (4) For women aged 50 years or older, breast cancer occurs at an annual rate that is about proportional to age or age squared. This may mean that after menopause, the processes in the multistep mutation cascade leading to breast cancer are slowed down by a factor of about 4 or more. (5) The constant relative risk model of radiation carcinogenesis implies for solid cancers that radiation acts by inducing additional mutations in the earlier steps of the multistep cascade. It is suggested that the break-point in the age-specific annual rate of breast cancer incidence at menopause is associated with a corresponding drop in radiation sensitivity with respect to induction of breast cancer. Received: 8 January 2001 / Accepted: 20 March 2001