A comprehensive phylogeography of the widespread pond snail genus Radix revealed restricted colonization due to niche conservatism

To clarify the effect of niche conservatism on evolutionary history, we focused on freshwater snails, which have different ecological and phylogenetic properties from previously tested taxa. We conducted a phylogenetic analysis using 750 lymnaeid individuals from 357 sites of eleven Radix species. Then, we estimated the ancestral distribution using the geographic coordinates and colonization routes. In addition, a statistical test of the colonization distances in the latitudinal and longitudinal directions was performed. We also conducted ecological niche modeling for two widely distributed species using climatic data. Ancestral geographic reconstruction estimated the origin of the genus to be around the Indian subcontinental region and showed that latitudinal immigration distances were shorter than longitudinal immigration distances in the diversification process. Ecological niche models suggested that the current distribution was restricted by climate, with annual mean temperature and precipitation of the driest month as particularly strong factors. Niche conservatism to the climate can affect the diversification of freshwater snails.     

Scaling between macro- to microscale climatic data reveals strong phylogenetic inertia in niche evolution in plethodontid salamanders

Macroclimatic niches are indirect and potentially inadequate predictors of the realized environmental conditions that many species experience. Consequently, analyses of niche evolution based on macroclimatic data alone may incompletely represent the evolutionary dynamics of species niches. Yet, understanding how an organisms’ climatic (Grinnellian) niche responds to changing macroclimatic conditions is of vital importance for predicting their potential response to global change. In this study, we integrate microclimatic and macroclimatic data across 26 species of plethodontid salamanders to portray the relationship between microclimatic niche evolution in response to changing macroclimate. We demonstrate stronger phylogenetic signal in microclimatic niche variables than at the macroclimatic scale. Even so, we find that the microclimatic niche tracks climatic changes at the macroscale, but with a phylogenetic lag at million-year timescales. We hypothesize that behavioral tracking of the microclimatic niche over space and phenology generates the lag: salamanders preferentially select microclimates similar to their ancestral conditions rather than adapting with changes in physiology. We demonstrate that macroclimatic variables are weak predictors of niche evolution and that incorporating spatial scale into analyses of niche evolution is critical for predicting responses to climate change.     

Phyloclimatic modeling: combining phylogenetics and bioclimatic modeling

We investigate the impact of past climates on plant diversification by tracking the "footprint" of climate change on a phylogenetic tree. Diversity within the cosmopolitan carnivorous plant genus Drosera (Droseraceae) is focused within Mediterranean climate regions. We explore whether this diversity is temporally linked to Mediterranean-type climatic shifts of the mid-Miocene and whether climate preferences are conservative over phylogenetic timescales. Phyloclimatic modeling combines environmental niche (bioclimatic) modeling with phylogenetics in order to study evolutionary patterns in relation to climate change. We present the largest and most complete such example to date using Drosera. The bioclimatic models of extant species demonstrate clear phylogenetic patterns; this is particularly evident for the tuberous sundews from southwestern Australia (subgenus Ergaleium). We employ a method for establishing confidence intervals of node ages on a phylogeny using replicates from a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. This chronogram shows that many clades, including subgenus Ergaleium and section Bryastrum, diversified during the establishment of the Mediterranean-type climate. Ancestral reconstructions of bioclimatic models demonstrate a pattern of preference for this climate type within these groups. Ancestral bioclimatic models are projected into palaeo-climate reconstructions for the time periods indicated by the chronogram. We present two such examples that each generate plausible estimates of ancestral lineage distribution, which are similar to their current distributions. This is the first study to attempt bioclimatic projections on evolutionary time scales. The sundews appear to have diversified in response to local climate development. Some groups are specialized for Mediterranean climates, others show wide-ranging generalism. This demonstrates that Phyloclimatic modeling could be repeated for other plant groups and is fundamental to the understanding of evolutionary responses to climate change.     

PHYLOGENETIC CONSTRAINTS IN KEY FUNCTIONAL TRAITS BEHIND SPECIES’ CLIMATE NICHES: PATTERNS OF DESICCATION AND COLD RESISTANCE ACROSS 95 DROSOPHILA SPECIES

Species distributions are often constrained by climatic tolerances that are ultimately determined by evolutionary history and/or adaptive capacity, but these factors have rarely been partitioned. Here, we experimentally determined two key climatic niche traits (desiccation and cold resistance) for 92–95 Drosophila species and assessed their importance for geographic distributions, while controlling for acclimation, phylogeny, and spatial autocorrelation. Employing an array of phylogenetic analyses, we documented moderate‐to‐strong phylogenetic signal in both desiccation and cold resistance. Desiccation and cold resistance were clearly linked to species distributions because significant associations between traits and climatic variables persisted even after controlling for phylogeny. We used different methods to untangle whether phylogenetic signal reflected phylogenetically related species adapted to similar environments or alternatively phylogenetic inertia. For desiccation resistance, weak phylogenetic inertia was detected; ancestral trait reconstruction, however, revealed a deep divergence that could be traced back to the genus level. Despite drosophilids’ high evolutionary potential related to short generation times and high population sizes, cold resistance was found to have a moderate‐to‐high level of phylogenetic inertia, suggesting that evolutionary responses are likely to be slow. Together these findings suggest species distributions are governed by evolutionarily conservative climate responses, with limited scope for rapid adaptive responses to future climate change.     

A phyloclimatic study of Cyclamen

Background

The impact of global climate change on plant distribution, speciation and extinction is of current concern. Examining species climatic preferences via bioclimatic niche modelling is a key tool to study this impact. There is an established link between bioclimatic niche models and phylogenetic diversification. A next step is to examine future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic perspective. We present such a study using Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group which demonstrates morphological and phenological adaptations to its seasonal Mediterranean-type climate. How will the predicted climate change affect future distribution of this popular genus of garden plants?

Results

We demonstrate phylogenetic structure for some climatic characteristics, and show that most Cyclamen have distinct climatic niches, with the exception of several wide-ranging, geographically expansive, species. We reconstruct climate preferences for hypothetical ancestral Cyclamen. The ancestral Cyclamen lineage has a preference for the seasonal Mediterranean climate characteristic of dry summers and wet winters. Future bioclimatic niches, based on BIOCLIM and Maxent models, are examined with reference to a future climate scenario for the 2050s. Over the next 50 years we predict a northward shift in the area of climatic suitability, with many areas of current distribution becoming climatically unsuitable. The area of climatic suitability for every Cyclamen species is predicted to decrease. For many species, there may be no areas with a suitable climate regardless of dispersal ability, these species are considered to be at high risk of extinction. This risk is examined from a phylogenetic perspective.

Conclusion

Examining bioclimatic niches from a phylogenetic perspective permits novel interpretations of these models. In particular, reconstruction of ancestral niches can provide testable hypothesis about the historical development of lineages. In the future we can expect a northwards shift in climatic suitability for the genus Cyclamen. If this proves to be the case then dispersal is the best chance of survival, which seems highly unlikely for ant-dispersed Cyclamen. Human-assisted establishment of Cyclamen species well outside their native ranges offers hope and could provide the only means of dispersal to potentially suitable future environments. Even without human intervention the phylogenetic perspective demonstrates that major lineages could survive climate change even if many species are lost.     

Tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in Primates

Climatic niches have increasingly become a nexus in our understanding of a variety of ecological and evolutionary phenomena, from species distributions to latitudinal diversity gradients. Despite the increasing availability of comprehensive datasets on species ranges, phylogenetic histories, and georeferenced environmental conditions, studies on the evolution of climate niches have only begun to understand how niches evolve over evolutionary timescales. Here, using primates as a model system, we integrate recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods, species distribution patterns, and climatic data to explore primate climatic niche evolution, both among clades and over time. In general, we found that simple, constant‐rate models provide a poor representation of how climatic niches evolve. For instance, there have been shifts in the rate of climatic niche evolution in several independent clades, particularly in response to the increasingly cooler climates of the past 10 My. Interestingly, rate accelerations greatly outnumbered rate decelerations. These results highlight the importance of considering more realistic evolutionary models that allow for the detection of heterogeneity in the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution, as well as to infer possible constraining factors for species distributions in geographical space.     

Is Psammophily an Evolutionary Dead End? A Phylogenetic Test in the Genus Willemia (Collembola: Hypogastruridae)

The law of the unspecialized states that specialized taxa have evolved from more generalized ancestors. Moreover, it is usually assumed that ecological specialization is irreversible and hence leads to extinction. This study aims to test these assumptions using a phylogenetic framework in a case study within the springtail genus Willemia and its diverse life habits. This genus is represented mostly by loam-dwelling species (generalized condition), but some species are psammophilous, living in sandy habitats (specialized condition). Fifty-two morphological characters were examined in 34 of the 36 species of the genus and in three outgroups. The cladistic analysis yielded two most parsimonious trees (tree length 124 steps; consistency index 0.56; retention index 0.86). The evolution of psammophily versus loam-confined life is compared to the cladogram: unexpectedly, psammophily is not an evolutionary innovation that occurred once in a monophyletic group; the evolutionary scenario that parsimoniously fits the phylogeny suggests that psammophily is ancestral to the genus Willemia and reversed twice to loam-confined life. These results demonstrate that habitat generalists can evolve from habitat specialists and therefore that habitat specializations are not necessarily an evolutionary dead end. Many other seemingly specialized characters may be shown to be equally malleable.     

Climatic mean diagrams: A technique for assessing the climatic differentiation of species

 A new method for comparisons of the ecogeographical and climatic constitutions of taxa is presented. The method will be important for understanding the evolution of species in time and space because ecogeographical characters of the species become directly comparable. On a global analytical level, distribution ranges of species may be considered as a function of the ecological constitution of the species, i.e. their endogenous hardiness to environmental forces, and climate. Frequency diagrams of the species' occurrences are calculated for the monthly climatic means of temperature and precipitation using high-resolution maps of distribution and climate. These frequency diagrams are used to construct monthly temperature-precipitation diagrams (TPD) that show the monthly climate spaces of the species'. For the first time, within the TPDs the climate spaces of the plants become directly comparable. However, comparability is somewhat restricted because of the necessity to consider the TPDs of all 12 months. A higher degree of abstraction is obtained using the climatic centre of a species as inferred from the TPD. The twelve monthly climatic means are transferred to the climatic mean diagram (CMD). In the CMD the climate spaces of the species become directly comparable in the course of the year. Despite the high degree of abstraction each diagram type reflects particular ecogeographical characteristics of the species even at a regional geographical level. Especially the CMD offers ways for understanding evolutionary shifts in the ecogeographical constitution of closely related species. The reasons for the shifts are composed of a hydric and thermal component. They may be addressed in molecular and physiological studies concerning evolutionary changes of these ecogeographical traits. Received August 7, 2000 Accepted November 5, 2001     

Climatic niche conservatism and the evolutionary dynamics in species range boundaries: global congruence across mammals and amphibians

Aim Comparative evidence for phylogenetic niche conservatism – the tendency for lineages to retain their ancestral niches over long time scales – has so far been mixed, depending on spatial and taxonomic scale. We quantify and compare conservatism in the climatic factors defining range boundaries in extant continental mammals and amphibians in order to identify those factors that are most evolutionarily conserved, and thus hypothesized to have played a major role in determining the geographic distributions of many species. We also test whether amphibians show stronger signals of climatic niche conservatism, as expected from their greater physiological sensitivity and lower dispersal abilities. Location Global; continental land masses excluding Antarctica. Methods We used nearly complete global distributional databases to estimate the climatic niche conservatism in extant continental mammals and amphibians. We characterized the climatic niche of each species by using a suite of variables and separately investigate conservatism in each variable using both taxonomic and phylogenetic approaches. Finally, we explored the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns in recent climatic niche evolution. Results Amphibians and mammals showed congruent patterns of conservatism in cold tolerance, with assemblages of escapee species (i.e. those escaping most from the climatic constraints of their ancestors) aggregated in the North Temperate Zone. Main conclusions The relative strength of climatic niche conservatism varies across the variables tested, but is strongest for cold tolerance in both mammals and amphibians. Despite the apparent conservatism in this variable, there is also a strong signal of recent evolutionary shifts in cold tolerance in assemblages inhabiting the North Temperate Zone. Our results thus indicate that distribution patterns of both taxa are influenced by both niche conservatism and niche evolution.     

Climate change effects on turtles of the genus Kinosternon (Testudines: Kinosternidae): an assessment of habitat suitability and climate niche conservatism

The Chelonian lineage has been exposed to several climate change events along its evolutionary history, but the rapid contemporary change in climate patterns has the potential to erode turtle populations. This study focuses on (1) evaluating the climatically suitable area available for 15 species of mud turtles of the genus Kinosternon, and on (2) assessing whether or not these species retain their ancestral climate niche. Occurrence data was collected for these species and, using the Maxent algorithm and WorldClim bioclimatic variables, suitable present and future climatic niche areas were modeled. In addition, we also carried out climatic niche similarity analyses between pairs of species to evaluate whether these conserve their climatic niche. Our models suggest that most species of Kinosternon will lose a high proportion of their suitable habitat in the future. Most mud turtle species seem to conserve their climatic niche, suggesting the prevalence of niche conservatism in the group. Our results indicate that several mud turtle species could be at severe risk of disappearing over the next few decades due to the loss of climatically suitable areas and of the conservation of their climatic niches.

     

Macroevolutionary dynamics in environmental space and the latitudinal diversity gradient in New World birds

Correlations between species richness and climate suggest non-random occupation of environmental space and niche evolution through time. However, the evolutionary mechanisms involved remain unresolved. Here, we partition the occupation of environmental space into intra- and inter-clade components to differentiate a model based on pure conservation of ancestral niches with higher diversification rates in the tropics, and an adaptive radiation model based on shifts in adaptive peaks at the family level allowing occupation of temperate regions. We examined these mechanisms using within- and among-family skewness components based on centroids of 3560 New World bird species across four environmental variables. We found that the accumulation of species in the tropics is a result of both processes. The components of adaptive radiation have family level skewness of species' distributions strongly structured in space, but not phylogenetically, according to the integrated analyses of spatial filters and phylogenetic eigenvectors. Moreover, stronger radiation components were found for energy variables, which are often used to argue for direct climatic effects on diversity. Thus, the correspondence between diversity and climate may be due to the conservation of ancestral tropical niches coupled with repeated broad shifts in adaptive peaks during birds' evolutionary history more than by higher diversification rates driven by more energy in the tropics.     

Phylogenetic conservatism and biogeographic affinity influence woody plant species richness–climate relationships in eastern Eurasia

Mechanisms underlying species richness patterns remain a central yet controversial issue in biology. Climate has been regarded as a major determinant of species richness. However, the relative influences of different evolutionary processes, (i.e. niche conservatism, diversification rate and time for speciation) on species richness–climate relationships remain to be tested. Here, using newly compiled distribution maps for 11 422 woody plant species in eastern Eurasia, we estimated species richness patterns for all species and for families with tropical and temperate affinities separately, and explored the phylogenetic signals in species richness patterns of different families and their relationships with contemporary climate and climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We further compared the effects of niche conservatism (represented by contemporary-ancestral climatic niches differences), diversification rate and time for speciation (represented by family age) on variation in the slopes of species richness–climate relationships. We found that winter coldness was the best predictor for species richness patterns of most tropical families while Quaternary climate change was the best predictor for those of most temperate families. Species richness patterns of closely-related families were more similar than those of distantly-related families within eudicots, and significant phylogenetic signals characterized the slopes of species richness–climate relationships across all angiosperm families. Contemporary-ancestral climatic niche differences dominated variation in the relationships between family-level species richness and most climate variables. Our results indicate significant phylogenetic conservatism in family-level species richness patterns and their relationships with contemporary climate within eudicots. These findings shed light on the mechanisms underlying large-scale species richness patterns and suggest that ancestral climatic niche may influence the evolution of species richness–climate relationships in plants through niche conservatism.     

Niche conservatism and phylogenetic clustering in a tribe of arid‐adapted marsupial mice,the Sminthopsini

The progressive expansion of the Australian arid zone during the last 20 Ma appears to have spurred the diversification of several families of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates, yet such taxonomic groups appear to show limited niche radiation. Here, we test whether speciation is associated with niche conservatism (constraints on ecological divergence) or niche divergence in a tribe of marsupial mice (Sminthopsini; 23 taxa) that includes the most speciose genus of living dasyurids, the sminthopsins. To that end, we integrated phylogenetic data with ecological niche modelling, to enable us to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within Sminthopsini. Niche overlap among species was low‐moderate (but generally higher than expected given environmental background similarity), and the degree of phylogenetic clustering increased with aridity. Climatic niche reconstruction illustrates that there has been little apparent evolution of climatic tolerance within clades. Accordingly, climatic disparity tends to be accumulated among clades, suggesting considerable niche conservatism. Our results also indicate that evolution of climatic tolerances has been heterogeneous across different dimensions of climate (temperature vs. precipitation) and across phylogenetic clusters (Sminthopsis murina group vs. other groups). Although some results point to the existence of shifts in climatic niches during the speciation of sminthopsins, our study provides evidence for substantial phylogenetic niche conservatism in the group. We conclude that niche diversification had a low impact on the speciation of this tribe of small, but highly mobile marsupials.     

Phylogenetic patterns in zopherine beetles are related to ecological niche width and dispersal limitation

Niche conservatism has been proposed as the mechanism driving speciation in temperate montane clades through range fragmentation during climatic oscillations. Thus, a negative relationship between speciation rates and niche width is expected. Here, we test this prediction using American zopherine beetles. Our phylogenetic analyses recovered two clades in addition to that of the genus Zopherus: the genera Verodes and Phloeodes, which originated most likely in the Eocene, and diversified during the Miocene and the Pliocene. The assessment of clade niche width in relation to clade diversity supported the proposition of narrow niches leading to a higher probability of range fragmentation during climatic oscillations, thus increasing speciation. Additionally, almost all current populations of Phloeodes and Verodes are located within regions that retained favourable climatic conditions across warm and cold Pleistocene periods, suggesting that dispersal limitation is a strong factor controlling clade distribution. In sum, our results suggest that (i) niche width is a major determinant of the probability of speciation in temperate montane clades, by controlling the probability of potential range fragmentation and (ii) dispersal limitation is also a major determinant of the speciation process, by increasing the fragmentation of realized ranges even when potential distributions are cyclically fused during climatic oscillations. When dispersal limitation is extreme, as in zopherine beetles, populations persist just in those areas that have retained suitable conditions during extremes of past climatic oscillations. Paradoxically, this relict condition confers zopherine beetles great resilience for facing future climate change.     

Climatic niche evolution in the Andean genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Menonvillea</Emphasis> (Cremolobeae: Brassicaceae)

The study of how climatic niches change over evolutionary time has recently attracted the interest of many researchers. Different methodologies have been employed principally to analyze the temporal dynamics of the niche and specially to test for the presence of phylogenetic niche conservatism. Menonvillea, a genus of Brassicaceae including 24 species, is distributed primarily along the Andes of Argentina and Chile, with some taxa growing in southern Patagonia and others in the Atacama Desert and the Chilean Matorral. The genus is highly diversified morphologically but also presents a remarkably wide ecological range, growing from the high Andean elevations, to the dry coastal deserts in Chile, or the Patagonia Steppe in Argentina. In this study, we used molecular phylogenies together with climatic data to study climatic niche evolution in the genus. The results show that the main climatic niche shifts in Menonvillea occurred between the sections Cuneata-Scapigera and sect. Menonvillea throughout the Mid-Late Miocene, and associated with the two main geographical distribution centers of the genus: the highlands of the central-southern Andes and the Atacama Desert-Chilean Matorral, respectively. Climatic niches in these lineages were mainly differentiated by the aridity and potential evapotranspiration, the minimum temperatures of the coldest month, and the temperature annual range and seasonality. Niche evolution in Menonvillea deviated from a Brownian motion process, with most of the climatic dimension best-fitting to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of multiple adaptive peaks. Our results also indicated that higher aridity levels and lower annual temperature ranges were associated with the evolution of the annual habit, as exemplified by the distribution of sect. Menonvillea. Finally, the results suggested that climatic niche evolution in Menonvillea exhibited some degree of phylogenetic niche conservatism, fundamentally within the two main lineages (sect. Menonvillea and sects. Cuneata-Scapigera).     

Trait evolution rates shape continental patterns of species richness in North America's most diverse angiosperm genus (Carex,Cyperaceae)

Ecological opportunity has been associated with increases in diversification rates across the tree of life. Under an ecological diversification model, the emergence of novel environments is hypothesized to promote morpho- and ecospace evolution. Whether this model holds at the clade level within the most species-rich angiosperm genus found in North America (Carex, Cyperaceae) is yet to be tested. Recent works demonstrate a temporal coupling of climate cooling and widespread colonization of Carex in North America, implicating ecological diversification. In addition, research has consistently found asymmetric patterns of lineage-level diversification in the genus. Why does variation in clade sizes exist in the genus? Is ecological diversification involved? In this study, we tested whether rates of morphological and ecological trait evolution are correlated with clade-level species richness in Carex of North America north of Mexico. We constructed a phylogeny of 477 species—an almost complete regional sample. We estimated rates of evolution of morphological traits, habitat, and climatic niche and assessed whether differences in rates of evolution correlate with species richness differences in replicate non-nested sister clades. Our work demonstrates significant positive correlations between climatic niche rates, habitat and reproductive morphological evolution, and species richness. This coupling of trait and niche evolution and species richness in a diverse, continental clade sample strongly suggests that the ability of clades to explore niche and functional space has shaped disparities in richness and functional diversity across the North American flora region. Our findings highlight the importance of the evolutionary history of trait and niche evolution in shaping continental and regional floras.     

Macroecology meets macroevolution: evolutionary niche dynamics in the seaweed Halimeda

Aim Because of their broad distribution in geographical and ecological dimensions, seaweeds (marine macroalgae) offer great potential as models for marine biogeographical inquiry and exploration of the interface between macroecology and macroevolution. This study aims to characterize evolutionary niche dynamics in the common green seaweed genus Halimeda, use the observed insights to gain understanding of the biogeographical history of the genus and predict habitats that can be targeted for the discovery of species of special biogeographical interest. Location Tropical and subtropical coastal waters. Methods The evolutionary history of the genus is characterized using molecular phylogenetics and relaxed molecular clock analysis. Niche modelling is carried out with maximum entropy techniques and uses macroecological data derived from global satellite imagery. Evolutionary niche dynamics are inferred through application of ancestral character state estimation. Results A nearly comprehensive molecular phylogeny of the genus was inferred from a six‐locus dataset. Macroecological niche models showed that species distribution ranges are considerably smaller than their potential ranges. We show strong phylogenetic signal in various macroecological niche features. Main conclusions The evolution of Halimeda is characterized by conservatism for tropical, nutrient‐depleted habitats, yet one section of the genus managed to invade colder habitats multiple times independently. Niche models indicate that the restricted geographical ranges of Halimeda species are not due to habitat unsuitability, strengthening the case for dispersal limitation. Niche models identified hotspots of habitat suitability of Caribbean species in the eastern Pacific Ocean. We propose that these hotspots be targeted for discovery of new species separated from their Caribbean siblings since the Pliocene rise of the Central American Isthmus.     

Replicate patterns of species richness, historical biogeography, and phylogeny in Holarctic treefrogs

In recent decades, the field of historical biogeography has become increasingly divorced from evolutionary biology, ecology, and studies of species richness. In this paper, we explore the evolutionary causes of patterns of biogeography and species richness in Northern Hemisphere treefrogs, combining phylogenetics, ancestral area reconstruction, molecular dating methods, and ecological niche modeling. We reconstructed phylogenetic relationships among 58 hylid taxa using data from two mitochondrial genes (12S, ND1) and two nuclear genes (POMC, c-myc). We find that parallel patterns of species richness have developed in Europe, Asia, and in two separate clades of North American hylids, with the highest richness at midtemperate latitudes (30-35 degrees) on each continent. This pattern is surprising given that hylids overall show higher species richness in the New World tropics and given many standard ecological explanations for the latitudinal diversity gradient (e.g., energy, productivity, mid-domain effect). The replicate pattern in Holarctic hylids seems to reflect specialized tolerance for temperate climate regimes or possibly the effects of competition. The results also suggest that long-range dispersal between continental regions with similar climatic regimes may be easier than dispersal between geographically adjacent regions with different climatic regimes. Our results show the importance of ecology and evolution to large-scale biogeography and the importance of large-scale biogeography to understanding patterns of species richness.     

Global realized niche divergence in the African clawed frog Xenopus laevis

Although of crucial importance for invasion biology and impact assessments of climate change, it remains widely unknown how species cope with and adapt to environmental conditions beyond their currently realized climatic niches (i.e., those climatic conditions existing populations are exposed to). The African clawed frog Xenopus laevis, native to southern Africa, has established numerous invasive populations on multiple continents making it a pertinent model organism to study environmental niche dynamics. In this study, we assess whether the realized niches of the invasive populations in Europe, South, and North America represent subsets of the species’ realized niche in its native distributional range or if niche shifts are traceable. If shifts are traceable, we ask whether the realized niches of invasive populations still contain signatures of the niche of source populations what could indicate local adaptations. Univariate comparisons among bioclimatic conditions at native and invaded ranges revealed the invasive populations to be nested within the variable range of the native population. However, at the same time, invasive populations are well differentiated in multidimensional niche space as quantified via n‐dimensional hypervolumes. The most deviant invasive population are those from Europe. Our results suggest varying degrees of realized niche shifts, which are mainly driven by temperature related variables. The crosswise projection of the hypervolumes that were trained in invaded ranges revealed the south‐western Cape region as likely area of origin for all invasive populations, which is largely congruent with DNA sequence data and suggests a gradual exploration of novel climate space in invasive populations.     

Phylogenetic properties of Tertiary relict flora in the east Asian continental islands: imprint of climatic niche conservatism and in situ diversification

Understanding biodiversity patterns on islands has long been a central aim in ecology and conservation biology. Island‐specific biogeographical processes play substantial roles in the formation of endemic biota. Here, we examined how climate niche conservatism and geohistorical factors are interactively associated with in situ diversification of Tertiary relict flora in the east Asian continental islands. We generated two novel datasets for species distribution and phylogeny that included all of the known vascular plant species in Japan (5575). Then we tested phylogenetic signal of climatic tolerance, in terms of absolute minimum temperature and water balance, and explored environmental predictors of phylogenetic structure (evolutionary derivedness and clustering) of species assemblages. Although phylogenetic signal of climatic tolerance was significant across the phylogeny of most species, the strength of climatic niche conservatism differed among ferns, gymnosperms, angiosperm trees, and angiosperm herbs. For angiosperm trees, cold temperatures acted as environmental filters that generated phylogenetic derivedness/clustering of species assemblages. For fern and angiosperm herb species, however, phylogenetic properties were not associated with climatic harshness. These contrasting patterns among groups reflected climate niche evolution in vascular plants with different growth forms and traits; for example, diversification of angiosperm trees (but not fern and herb) occurred in response to historical climatic cooling. More importantly, geographical constraints contributed to evolutionary radiation that resulted from isolation by distance from the continent or by elevation. Quaternary climate change was also associated with clade‐specific radiation in refugial habitats. The degree to which geographical, geological, and palaeoclimatic variables explain the phylogenetic structure underscores the importance of isolation‐ and habitat‐stability‐related geohistorical processes in driving in situ diversification despite climatic niche conservatism. We propose that the highly endemic flora of the east Asian islands resulted from the interplay of idiosyncratic regional factors, and ecological and evolutionary processes, such as climate niche assembly and adaptive/nonadaptive radiation.