AIDS as a zoonosis? Confusion over the origin of the virus and the origin of the epidemics

Based on findings demonstrating the simian ancestry of HIV, AIDS has been reported to be a zoonosis. However, this theory has never been proved and must seriously be questioned. Several arguments show that HIV-AIDS is not a zoonosis. (i) If AIDS were a zoonosis, there must be evidence of AIDS being directly acquired from an animal species, as is rabies, a disease that is directly acquired from animals. (ii) Despite long-term and frequent human exposure to SIV-infected monkeys in Africa, only 11 cross-species transmission events are known, and only four of these have resulted in significant human-to-human transmission, generating HIV-1 groups M and O and HIV-2 groups A and B. The closest relatives of SIVcpz (HIV-1 group N) and of SIVsm (HIV-2 groups C-H) are extremely rare, with only six HIV-1 group N-infected patients and only single individuals known to be infected by HIV-2 groups C-H. SIV, while capable of cross-species transmission, is thus poorly adapted for disease and epidemic spread. If AIDS were a zoonosis that is capable of significant human-to-human spread, there would be a plethora of founder subtypes and groups. (iii) Human exposure to SIV is thousands of years old, but AIDS emerged only in the 20th century. If AIDS were a zoonosis that spread into the human population, it would have spread to the West during slave trade. (iv) Experimental transmission of SIVs to different species of monkeys is often well controlled by the new host, showing that the virus and not the disease is transmitted. Therefore, we conclude that cross-species transmission of SIV does not in itself constitute the basis for a zoonosis. Transmission per se is not the major requirement for the generation of the AIDS epidemic. All HIVs do derive from simian species, but AIDS does not qualify as a zoonosis and this explanation cannot in itself account for the origin of AIDS epidemic. It is important to distinguish AIDS from true zoonoses (e.g. rabies) because research is needed to understand the processes by which animal viruses cause sustained human-to-human transmission, epidemics and even pandemics. Much is known about emerging viruses, but almost nothing is known about emerging viral diseases.     

Modeling AIDS as a function of other sexually transmitted disease.

The spread of AIDS, as with any sexually transmitted disease, will depend on the pattern of sexual activity. Both the proportion of the population who have high partner exchange rates and the extent to which that proportion interacts with the remainder of the population are likely to be important determinants of the AIDS epidemic. However, it does not seem likely that surveys could obtain sufficiently reliable information of this nature for use in an accurate model of the AIDS epidemic. On the other hand, such information is implicitly contained in the epidemiology of other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Therefore a method is suggested of calculating the parameters of a model of the AIDS epidemic by comparing it with the epidemiology of another STD. The result is a model that predicts the likelihood of infection by the AIDS virus as a function of time and an individual's history of STD. It is suggested that further work along these lines may lead to a quantitative approach to assessing the importance of various STDs as cofactors in the spread of AIDS.     

Perspectives on high-throughput technologies applied to protein crystallization

High-throughput crystallisation requires the rapid and accurate dispensing of protein and precipitating agent solutions at nanovolumes, but does not end there. The choice of the initial screens is very important, especially with respect to the availability of protein material. Data from previous crystallisation experiments that are scattered in the literature and only partially available in databases have to be analysed in efficient ways that will maximise their utility for designing new screens. A larger portion of crystallisation parameter space should be made accessible to screening, through the use of nucleants and seeding. Observation, assessment and scaling up of the crystallisation trials should be efficiently performed and, finally yet importantly, optimisation of conditions must also be adapted to the high-throughput environment. The above requirements are briefly addressed in the following paper.     

The HIV epidemic: medical and social challenges

The sudden appearance, rapid spread, and devastating clinical impact of HIV infection in Africa, Europe and North America has created a medical problem unprecedented in the modern era. HIV is sexually transmitted, afflicts sexual and racial minorities in developed countries, and appears likely to be fatal and incurable in a majority of infected people. Its epidemiology (transmission and natural history) and clinical manifestations have been well described, but treatment of HIV remains minimally effective, creating only a short respite from progressive deterioration. In the absence of effective vaccination, HIV will continue to spread, abetted by a long period of asymptomatic carriage during which carriers are infectious. It has spread internationally to most undeveloped countries aided by fear and ignorance. The problem will resist simple technological solutions and adversely impact the lives of tens of millions of people in these areas over the next several decades. In developed countries HIV will strain medical resources and kill several million people before the end of the century. Despite the tremendous problems created by the AIDS epidemic, it has driven a remarkable expansion of virologic and immunologic understanding which promises to ultimately lead to control of not only AIDS, but a variety of other serious diseases. The following reviews of pivotal issues in AIDS research document this progress.     

Properties of some variants of adaptive staircases with fixed step sizes

Because the estimation of thresholds is daily practice in sensory psychophysics, efficient methods must be used to reduce experimental cost and burden. A large number of such methods are available, and each one further has a multitude of variants. All methods presumably provide a threshold estimate that is the stimulus level at which repeated testing would result in a specific percentage of correct responses on a forced-choice task, a percentage that varies across methods and variants thereof. A recent study (García-Pérez, 1998) showed that the most popular method (up-down staircases with fixed step sizes) yields threshold estimates that do not correspond to the presumed percent-correct points. Two modifications of this type of staircase have recently been proposed. In one (Zwislocki and Relkin, 2001), the up-down rule does not require correct responses to occur consecutively. In the other (Kaernbach, 1999), subjects are allowed to respond 'don't know' instead of guessing at random when unsure. Although the statistical basis of either modification were described in general, only a few of their many variants were subjected to evaluation under a limited set of conditions. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of a reasonable number of variants of either modification under a broad set of conditions. The results show that they are generally unfit for threshold estimation because in most cases the percent-correct point that is targeted varies greatly with the relative size of the steps with respect to the spread of the psychometric function. Dependable conditions for the use of these modified staircases are also determined.     

Obligatory precautions against infection

If we have a duty not to infect others, how far does it go? This question is often discussed with respect to HIV transmission, but reflection on other diseases like influenza raises a number of interesting theoretical issues. I argue that a duty to avoid infection not only yields requirements for persons who know they carry a disease, but also for persons who know they are at increased risk, and even for those who definitely know they are completely healthy. Given the numerous ways in which human interaction facilitates the spread of communicable diseases, a maximum level of precaution would be very demanding – possibly unreasonably demanding. The ‘over‐demandingness problem’ is mostly invoked as a criticism of utilitarianism, as this theory requires moral agents to always maximise general welfare, even at significant cost for themselves. However, I argue that, with respect to precautions against infectious diseases like influenza, utilitarianism is able to avoid the over‐demandingness problem. A contractualist account, on the other hand, whilst able to explain how one's obligations to avoid infection can be limited, given that other persons have opportunities and responsibilities to protect themselves, in the end requires precautions that raise the over‐demandingness problem.     

Avoiding biohazards in medical, veterinary and research laboratories

Personnel in medical, veterinary or research laboratories may be exposed to a wide variety of pathogens that range from deadly to debilitating. For some of these pathogens, no treatment is available, and in other cases the treatment does not fully control the disease. It is important that personnel in laboratories that process human or microbiological specimens follow universal precautions when handling tissues, cells, or microbiological specimens owing to the increasing numbers of individuals infected with hepatitis C and HIV in the US and the possibility that an individual may be asymptomatic when a specimen is obtained. Similar precautions must be followed in laboratories that use animal tissues owing to the possibility of exposure to agents that are pathogenic in humans. Personnel with conditions associated with immunosuppression should evaluate carefully whether or not specific laboratory environments put them at increased risk of disease. We offer here some general approaches to identifying biohazards and to minimizing the potential risk of exposure. The issues discussed can be used to develop a general safety program as required by regulatory or accrediting agencies, including the Occupational Safety and Health Administration.     

Avoiding biohazards in medical,veterinary and research laboratories

Personnel in medical, veterinary or research laboratories may be exposed to a wide variety of pathogens that range from deadly to debilitating. For some of these pathogens, no treatment is available, and in other cases the treatment does not fully control the disease. It is important that personnel in laboratories that process human or microbiological specimens follow universal precautions when handling tissues, cells, or microbiological specimens owing to the increasing numbers of individuals infected with hepatitis C and HIV in the US and the possibility that an individual may be asymptomatic when a specimen is obtained. Similar precautions must be followed in laboratories that use animal tissues owing to the possibility of exposure to agents that are pathogenic in humans. Personnel with conditions associated with immunosuppression should evaluate carefully whether or not specific laboratory environments put them at increased risk of disease. We offer here some general approaches to identifying biohazards and to minimizing the potential risk of exposure. The issues discussed can be used to develop a general safety program as required by regulatory or accrediting agencies, including the Occupational Safety and Health Administration.     

On transient effects in the HIV/AIDS epidemic

During the initially exponential spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV—the causative agent of AIDS) the growth rate of the number of AIDS cases decreases from plus infinity to the growth rate of HIV infections. A sensitivity analysis shows that for all reasonable values of the parameters of the HIV epidemic (incubation period, initial doubling time, etc.) the effect of this positive transient becomes negligible when the annual number of AIDS cases reaches a few dozen. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the growth rate of the number of AIDS cases to be monotonically decreasing during the positive transient. A mildly pathological density function for the incubation period of AIDS provides an example of a growth rate of AIDS that does not decrease monotonically, even though HIV is spreading exponentially. A negative transient occurs when the growth rate of HIV begins to decrease. In this context a somewhat surprising result emerges under the assumption that the growth rate of HIV is non-increasing: the growth rate of AIDS is at all times larger than the growth rate of HIV. A logistic HIV epidemic illustrates this result, and implications for the growth of the HIV epidemic in the United States and Europe are discussed. In particular, it is shown that the positive transient must have passed by 1982 in the United States and by 1986 or 1987 for the five European countries with the largest caseloads.     

Traditional and innovative diagnostic tools: when and why they should be applied

The development of new technological methods surely improves the quality of the Diagnostic Services in Parasitology offered to the National Sanitary Service, however, cost and simplicity have not to be neglected, even when the prime consideration is efficiency. Moreover, the mere fact that something can be done by one of these new approaches does not mean that it should be done that way or that it is most cost-effective to do it that way. A review of diagnostic tools in Parasitology is proposed, to evaluate when and why each of them should be applied. Traditional procedures for the diagnosis of parasitosis are only based on the "direct" recovery and recognition of the parasite, with the microscope as main tool and few other instruments as co-operator. The innovative procedures, recently adjusted on the basis of new scientific knowledge and made possible by the development of the laboratory instrument weapons, can evidence the parasites both directly and indirectly. If it is obvious that the direct identification of a pathogen is more reliable than that indirect, is not so evident what is the most useful direct method, and when it would be better to use indirect diagnostic tools. Advantages and disadvantages of each procedure, cost as well as the purpose of the test (diagnosis, post-treatment, research), and the general condition in which the test have to been applied must be taken into account when we are choosing. In general, we can say that the rationale for their use can be summarised as follows: 1) The macroscopic/microscopic analysis of samples is always recommended (with the exception of samples coming from tissues that need surgery). This "old" procedure allows the identification in 20 minutes of all the parasites present in mixed infections, and the evaluation of the parasite load. It is a cost-effective method which relies ultimately on the skill of the observer to detect and identify parasite stages; 2) Parasite antigen detection is an innovative and expensive immunological diagnostic, which can suffer of sensitivity and specificity. It could be useful to directly diagnose "occult" infections; 3) Parasite DNA/RNA direct detection is an innovative, sensitive and specific procedure, which can also identify sibling species. It is expensive, therefore its use is restricted to reference laboratories; 4) Host antibody detection is an innovative indirect tool to evaluate the presence of a parasite by means the evaluation of the host response to infection. It can suffer of sensitivity and specificity, and the interpretation of the test results may be difficult. It could be applied as first step to evaluate the presence of tissue parasites, whose direct diagnosis would require surgery. Some tests can be performed in well-equipped laboratories; other tests are available through research laboratories. The specimens, appropriately collected and preserved, have always to be processed in security for potential risk of infection hazard, and submitted to tests appropriate to the laboratory's goals, where, therefore, field and research diagnostic tools shouldn't be applied. The test selected for routine use has to be chosen taking into account value and limitations of each method. Reduction in excessive and often unnecessary testing is mandatory, and therefore it is critical for the clinical Parasitology to perform relevant testing while maintaining appropriate quality. To date, the microscopic analysis of samples is the only direct method that allows all identifications in short times, at a reduced cost, independently from geographical origin and peculiar status of the patient. It has to be regarded as the first step in diagnostic procedures for all laboratories. Some molecular techniques have greater sensitivity than traditional methods, but at least at the present time, their costs may well preclude their routine use. It is difficult to know, exactly, where diagnostic Parasitology will be moving in the next few years, although many soothsayers feel very strongly that the area of molecular diagnostics will replace more traditional means. It is also possible that immunological or perhaps cytometric procedures will replace our more standard diagnostic approach; nevertheless they will continue to remain oddities on the outside of the general practice and be confined to a few reference laboratories. As far as semi-automated or automated instruments and robotics-based techniques, they are useful when large numbers of the same test are performed. Supposing that they will enter in our laboratory, that will happen in central facility rather than in each local facility. So, the great interest in using new technological methods to solve old problems probably will have to be seen in the right perspective.     

Using mathematical models to understand the AIDS epidemic

The most urgent public-health problem today is to devise effective strategies to minimize the destruction caused by the AIDS epidemic. This complex problem will involve medical advances and new public-health and education initiatives. Mathematical models based on the underlying transmission mechanisms of the AIDS virus can help the medical/scientific community understand and anticipate its spread in different populations and evaluate the potential effectiveness of different approaches for bringing the epidemic under control. Before we can use models to predict the future, we must carefully test them against the past spread of the infection and for sensitivity to parameter changes. The long and extremely variable incubation period and the low probability of transmitting the AIDS virus in a single contact imply that population structure and variations in infectivity both play an important role in its spread. The population structure is caused by differences between people in numbers of sexual partners and the use of intravenous drugs and because of the way in which people mix among age, ethnic, and social groups. We use a simplified approach to investigate the effects of variation in incubation periods and infectivity specific to the AIDS virus, and we compare a model of random partner choices with a model in which partners both come from similar behavior groups.     

The UNAIDS strategy in the prevention of HIV/AIDS in the countries of Eastern Europe

Grounds for the necessity of the formation of effective approaches to the prevention of HIV epidemic with a view to counteract the rapid spread of infection in East European countries are presented. Attention is specially drawn to fact that the epidemic will not be limited by drug users, but will quickly cross the boundaries of this group. The development of preventive measures must be based on the use of the world experience. New effective approaches to work with vulnerable groups (the strategy of harm reduction, work in communities, consultations, etc.) must be widely used. The program of actions of the UNAIDS European Section, stipulating the strengthening and extension of the potential of the countries in the region for the effective counteraction to the epidemic, is formulated. As priority areas, activities covering vulnerable groups and with young people have been determined. The strategy of UNAIDS is realized through 20 UN theme groups on HIV/AIDS in the countries of Eastern Europe. Special attention is drawn to the creation of methodological networks. The creation of a unified strategic plan for counteraction the epidemic of HIV/AIDS is regarded by UNAIDS as its perspective for the future.     

Gene therapy of T helper cells in HIV infection: Mathematical model of the criteria for clinical effect

The paper presents a mathematical analysis of the criteria for gene therapy of T helper cells to have a clinical effect on HIV infection. The analysis indicates that for such a therapy to be successful, it must protect the transduced cells against HIV-induced death. The transduced cells will not survive as a population if the gene therapy only blocks the spread of virus from transduced cells that become infected. The analysis also suggests that the degree of protection against disease-related cell death provided by the gene therapy is more important than the fraction of cells that is initially transduced. If only a small fraction of the cells can be transduced, transduction of T helper cells and transduction of haematopoietic progenitor cells will result in the same steady-state level of transduced T helper cells. For gene therapy to be efficient against HIV infection, our analysis suggests that a 100% protection against viral escape must be obtained. The study also suggests that a gene therapy against HIV infection should be designed to give the transduced cells a partial but not necessarily total protection against HIV-induced cell death, and to avoid the production of viral mutants insensitive to the gene therapy.     

Modeling the AIDS epidemic in Mexico City

To study the future course of the AIDS epidemic in Mexico City, we use an open compartmental model to forecast new AIDS cases among homosexual and bisexual males and among heterosexual males and females. For each group three compartments are defined: uninfected persons, infected but asymptomatic persons, and persons diagnosed with AIDS. It is assumed that the AIDS epidemic will follow the propagation of infectious disease model, where spread of infection is proportional to the product of the number of healthy persons and the number of infected ones. The compartmental model is represented by a system of nonlinear differential equations describing the rate of change in the number of persons in each compartment. The impact of preventive measures is explored by decreasing the probability of HIV transmission, which is one of the model parameters representing behavioral patterns. By April 1989, 491 AIDS cases had been reported in Mexico City and classified as sexually related. Our model predicts that the AIDS incidence will continue to rise in Mexico City for the foreseeable future and will spread among the heterosexual population. Decreasing the transmission probability by 10% in all groups (through education programs) will result in a decrease of 18.1% in the number of accumulated cases over a 5-year period. A 20% decrease would prevent more than 31% of the cases. We conclude that mathematical models can be valuable in predicting the spread of the AIDS epidemic and the impact of behavioral change on its spread.     

The AIDS epidemic: profiles of development

As all HIV-infected subjects become virus carriers, the epidemic will not attain a "steady state" until the number of deletions (from death and other factors) equals or outnumbers that of new cases, i.e. each HIV-infected subject transmits the infection to only one subject in the course of his lifespan. A full stop of all spreading of HIV will most likely require worldwide vaccination. By simple mathematical models it is shown that calculation of the number of HIV infected individuals based on the number of AIDS cases is very uncertain. The ratio of HIV infected subjects to AIDS cases is greatly influenced by the length of the incubation period and the case doubling time. Since the growth of the epidemic is exponential, all efforts to control the epidemic should be continuously intensified as single measures will only retard the rate of spread. The effect of saturation/deletion on the number of susceptible individuals is insignificant in this phase of the epidemic, except in small groups at special risk.     

Bifunctional recombinant fusion proteins for rapid detection of antibodies to both HIV-1 and HIV-2 in whole blood

Background  

Availability of accurate diagnostic tests has been helpful in curtailing the spread of HIV infection. Among these, simple, point of care, inexpensive tests which require only a drop of blood from finger-prick and give reliable results within minutes are a must for expansion of testing services and for reaching mobile and marginalised populations. Such tests will not only be a boon for the infrastructure-starved developing and underdeveloped countries but will also be extremely useful in developed countries where post-testing compliance is a major problem. Our laboratory has been involved in developing reagents for heamagglutination-based rapid detection of antibodies to HIV in whole blood using recombinant molecules specific for either HIV-1 or HIV-2. Since it is not required of a screening test to differentially detect HIV and HIV-2, it would useful to create a single molecule capable of simultaneous detection of both HIV-1 and HIV-2 in a drop of blood.