从文献看种群、种群生态及种群行为研究

通过维普中文期刊网和英文ScienceDirect数据库有关种群、种群生态和种群行为文献的查询,发现文献的发表量很不平衡,种群研究文献的年增长率远大于种群生态和种群行为。英文文献中关于种群行为研究的文献增长率高于种群生态,而中文文献正好相反。     

居群、物种与生物多样性

正受《生物多样性》主编之邀,我对洪德元先生(2016)的"生物多样性事业需要科学、可操作的物种概念"一文谈一点体会。鉴于在学术声望上我只能望洪先生之项背以及"可操作性的物种概念"之复杂性,我后悔轻率答应了撰文。但为了引起我国植物分类与系统植物学界关注这一重要问题的讨论,我不得不勉为其难。1三个目的我理解,洪先生撰写此文有三个非常明确的目的:第一,他以熟知的芍药属(Paeonia)植物为例,指出科学认识物种是有效保护我国珍稀濒危物种     

Population,poverty and economic development

Economists, demographers and other social scientists have long debated the relationship between demographic change and economic outcomes. In recent years, general agreement has emerged to the effect that improving economic conditions for individuals generally lead to lower birth rates. But, there is much less agreement about the proposition that lower birth rates contribute to economic development and help individuals and families to escape from poverty. The paper examines recent evidence on this aspect of the debate, concludes that the burden of evidence now increasingly supports a positive conclusion, examines recent trends in demographic change and economic development and argues that the countries representing the last development frontier, those of Sub-Saharan Africa, would be well advised to incorporate policies and programmes to reduce high fertility in their economic development strategies.     

Sustainability,Health, and the Human Population

A sustainable human population (e.g., range, density, and total numbers) is essential to health and in management. The notion of sustainability applies to all species and ecosystems and to the biosphere. Sustainability involves the health not only of individual humans, but also of ecosystems and other species. Thus, sustainability of the human population is important because of the wealth of factors involved: both the elements of systems it affects and those that contribute to its size. In this article, I address the sustainability of the human population on the basis of the argument that other species serve as examples of sustainability at the species level—an example of an application of systemic management that simultaneously accounts for complexity and achieves measurable health for individuals, species, and ecosystems. I conclude that the human population is two to four orders of magnitude larger than is optimally sustainable when compared with the populations of other mammalian species of similar body size and that this is a significant contributor to health problems for our species, other species, and ecosystems—a systemic pathology.     

Population, Warfare, and the Male Supremacist Complex

We present cross-cultural data on the existence of a pervasive institutional and ideological complex of male supremacy in band and village sociocultural systems, and we identify warfare as the most important cause of this complex. We explain the perpetuation of warfare in band and village society and its interaction with selective female infanticide as a response to the need to regulate population growth in the absence of effective or less costly alternatives. Our hypothesis is supported by a demographic analysis of 561 local band and village populations from 112 societies.     

Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population,Swaziland

Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here.     

Population policies,programmes and the environment

Human consumption is depleting the Earth''s natural resources and impairing the capacity of life-supporting ecosystems. Humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively over the past 50 years than during any other period, primarily to meet increasing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fibre and fuel. Such consumption, together with world population increasing from 2.6 billion in 1950 to 6.8 billion in 2009, are major contributors to environmental damage. Strengthening family-planning services is crucial to slowing population growth, now 78 million annually, and limiting population size to 9.2 billion by 2050. Otherwise, birth rates could remain unchanged, and world population would grow to 11 billion. Of particular concern are the 80 million annual pregnancies (38% of all pregnancies) that are unintended. More than 200 million women in developing countries prefer to delay their pregnancy, or stop bearing children altogether, but rely on traditional, less-effective methods of contraception or use no method because they lack access or face other barriers to using contraception. Family-planning programmes have a successful track record of reducing unintended pregnancies, thereby slowing population growth. An estimated $15 billion per year is needed for family-planning programmes in developing countries and donors should provide at least $5 billion of the total, however, current donor assistance is less than a quarter of this funding target.     

极小种群野生植物峨眉含笑的种群结构与数量动态

该研究以极小种群野生植物——峨眉含笑(Michelia wilsonii)为对象,采用样地调查法对雅安市周公山峨眉含笑野生种群进行群落调查,依据空间代替时间理论及匀滑技术,将种群动态变化情况量化,编制种群静态生命表,绘制存活曲线、死亡率曲线、消失率曲线和生存函数曲线分析其年龄结构现状,并用时间序列预测模型对其未来的数量动态进行预测,以揭示峨眉含笑的生存潜力和濒危机制,为该种群的恢复与重建提供依据。结果表明：(1)研究区内峨眉含笑种群的数量变化动态指数V_pi和V_pi′均大于0,年龄结构呈倒J型,存活曲线趋于Deevey Ⅱ型,种群结构属于增长型,但种群的演替过程存在波动性,幼苗的数量丰富但向幼树的发展受阻,幼树向中、壮树阶段的补充也有所减少,种群存在衰退风险。(2)峨眉含笑野生种群的死亡率和消失率均在第Ⅰ龄级、第Ⅶ~Ⅷ龄级和第Ⅹ龄级出现高峰,而在第Ⅱ~Ⅵ龄级阶段比较稳定。(3)随龄级增加,峨眉含笑种群的生存率持续下降,累积死亡率持续上升,危险率在第Ⅰ龄级时最高(1.308),死亡密度在第Ⅶ~Ⅷ龄级降至最低,在整个龄级阶段中对应龄级的危险率均高于生存率,种群存在断代衰退的风险。(4)时间序列预测分析表明,经历未来2、4、6、8个龄级时间后,中、壮树阶段个体数量有减少的趋势。研究认为,峨眉含笑野生种群具有前期锐减、中期稳定、后期衰退的特点。     

Genome-Wide Estimates of Coancestry,Inbreeding and Effective Population Size in the Spanish Holstein Population

Estimates of effective population size in the Holstein cattle breed have usually been low despite the large number of animals that constitute this breed. Effective population size is inversely related to the rates at which coancestry and inbreeding increase and these rates have been high as a consequence of intense and accurate selection. Traditionally, coancestry and inbreeding coefficients have been calculated from pedigree data. However, the development of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms has increased the interest of calculating these coefficients from molecular data in order to improve their accuracy. In this study, genomic estimates of coancestry, inbreeding and effective population size were obtained in the Spanish Holstein population and then compared with pedigree-based estimates. A total of 11,135 animals genotyped with the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip were available for the study. After applying filtering criteria, the final genomic dataset included 36,693 autosomal SNPs and 10,569 animals. Pedigree data from those genotyped animals included 31,203 animals. These individuals represented only the last five generations in order to homogenise the amount of pedigree information across animals. Genomic estimates of coancestry and inbreeding were obtained from identity by descent segments (coancestry) or runs of homozygosity (inbreeding). The results indicate that the percentage of variance of pedigree-based coancestry estimates explained by genomic coancestry estimates was higher than that for inbreeding. Estimates of effective population size obtained from genome-wide and pedigree information were consistent and ranged from about 66 to 79. These low values emphasize the need of controlling the rate of increase of coancestry and inbreeding in Holstein selection programmes.     

Population structure,spite, and the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma

Evolutionary stability (sensu Maynard Smith: Evolution and the Theory of Games, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982) of TIT FOR TAT (TFT) under the social ecology of the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma is a function of the number of pure TFT groups (dyads) in the population, relative to the social position of a focal invading defector. Defecting against TFT always raises the defector's relative intragroup fitness; when Axelrod's (Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 75:306–318, 1981; The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books, 1984) Evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) conditions are met, defection also lowers the absolute fitness of the defector. Here the retaliatory (punishing) character of TFT converts defection into spite, permitting pure TFT groups to sufficiently outproduce the defector for the latter's evolutionary suppression. Increasing the relative impact of spiteful defection on a population lowers the range of evolutionary stability for TFT. When individuals participate in multiple dyads, those participating in the greatest number of dyads are most likely to provide a vehicle for the successful invasion of defection. Within social networks, ESS conditions for TFT are thus individual specific. This logic is generalized to the context of an interated n-person Prisoner's Dilemma, providing a cooperative solution conceptually identical with TFT in the two-person game.     

Population Cycles,Disease, and Networks of Ecological Knowledge

Wildlife populations in the northern reaches of the globe have long been observed to fluctuate or cycle periodically, with dramatic increases followed by catastrophic crashes. Focusing on the early work of Charles S. Elton, this article analyzes how investigations into population cycles shaped the development of Anglo-American animal ecology during the 1920s–1930s. Population cycling revealed patterns that challenged ideas about the “balance” of nature; stimulated efforts to quantify population data; and brought animal ecology into conversation with intellectual debates about natural selection. Elton used the problem of understanding wildlife population cycles to explore a central tension in ecological thought: the relative influences of local conditions (food supply, predation) and universal forces (such as climate change and natural selection) in regulating wild animal populations. He also sought patronage and built research practices and the influential Bureau of Animal Population around questions of population regulation during the 1930s. Focusing on disease as a local population regulator that could interact with global climatic influences, Elton facilitated an interdisciplinary and population-based approach in early animal ecology. Elton created a network of epidemiologists, conservationists, pathologists and mathematicians, who contributed to population cycle research. I argue that, although these people often remained peripheral to ecology, their ideas shaped the young discipline. Particularly important were the concepts of abundance, density, and disease; and the interactions between these factors and natural selection. However, Elton’s reliance on density dependence unwittingly helped set up conditions conducive to the development of controversies in animal ecology in later years. While ecologists did not come to consensus on the ultimate causes of population cycles, this phenomenon was an important early catalyst for the development of theory and practice in animal ecology.