Southern Hemisphere biodiversity and global change: Data gaps and strategies

Long‐term datasets needed to detect the impacts of global change on southern biodiversity are still scarce and often incomplete, challenging adaptation planning and conservation management. Biological data are probably most limited in arid countries and from the oceans, where natural environmental variability (‘noise’) means that long time series are required to detect the ‘signal’ of directional change. Significant national and international investment and collaboration are needed for most southern nations to reliably track biodiversity trends and improve conservation adaptation to rapid climate change. Emerging early warning systems for biodiversity, incorporating regional environmental change drivers, citizen science and regional partnerships, can all help to compensate for existing information gaps and contribute to adaptation planning.     

Improving biodiversity monitoring

Effective biodiversity monitoring is critical to evaluate, learn from, and ultimately improve conservation practice. Well conceived, designed and implemented monitoring of biodiversity should: (i) deliver information on trends in key aspects of biodiversity (e.g. population changes); (ii) provide early warning of problems that might otherwise be difficult or expensive to reverse; (iii) generate quantifiable evidence of conservation successes (e.g. species recovery following management) and conservation failures; (iv) highlight ways to make management more effective; and (v) provide information on return on conservation investment. The importance of effective biodiversity monitoring is widely recognized (e.g. Australian Biodiversity Strategy). Yet, while everyone thinks biodiversity monitoring is a good idea, this has not translated into a culture of sound biodiversity monitoring, or widespread use of monitoring data. We identify four barriers to more effective biodiversity monitoring in Australia. These are: (i) many conservation programmes have poorly articulated or vague objectives against which it is difficult to measure progress contributing to design and implementation problems; (ii) the case for long‐term and sustained biodiversity monitoring is often poorly developed and/or articulated; (iii) there is often a lack of appropriate institutional support, co‐ordination, and targeted funding for biodiversity monitoring; and (iv) there is often a lack of appropriate standards to guide monitoring activities and make data available from these programmes. To deal with these issues, we suggest that policy makers, resource managers and scientists better and more explicitly articulate the objectives of biodiversity monitoring and better demonstrate the case for greater investments in biodiversitymonitoring. There is an urgent need for improved institutional support for biodiversity monitoring in Australia, for improved monitoring standards, and for improved archiving of, and access to, monitoring data. We suggest that more strategic financial, institutional and intellectual investments in monitoring will lead to more efficient use of the resources available for biodiversity conservation and ultimately better conservation outcomes.     

生物多样性监测指标体系构建研究进展

生物多样性监测是为确定与预期标准相一致或相背离的程度,而对生物多样性进行定期或不定期的监视,目前已成为生物多样性研究和保护的热点问题。生物多样性监测指标则是一些简化的生物或环境特征参数,说明生物多样性现状和变化趋势,以及人类活动压力对生物多样性的影响,以促进科学界、政府和公众间的沟通,提高生物多样性管理水平。近10年来,国际组织、政府机构和各国学者对生物多样性指标体系的构建进行了大量的探索工作,取得了很多进展,其中有些指标已经应用于实际监测项目。本文综述了生物多样性监测指标筛选的一般标准和指标体系构建的主要理论,梳理目前已提出或应用的主要生物多样性监测指标,以期为我国构建国家或区域尺度生物多样性监测指标体系提供参考。在此基础上分析提出：生物多样性概念的泛化、指标含义模糊以及知识和数据的缺乏是构建生物多样性监测指标的主要困难。我国未来的生物多样性监测指标体系构建需要关注以下两个方面：（1）紧密联系实际,构建适应性的监测指标体系,加强对典型生态系统区域的监测;（2）发展经济社会发展方面的指标,分析生物多样性变化的驱动力,为生物多样性保护和区域可持续发展提供科学依据。     

The impact of global climate change on tropical forest biodiversity in Amazonia

Aim To model long‐term trends in plant species distributions in response to predicted changes in global climate. Location Amazonia. Methods The impacts of expected global climate change on the potential and realized distributions of a representative sample of 69 individual Angiosperm species in Amazonia were simulated from 1990 to 2095. The climate trend followed the HADCM2GSa1 scenario, which assumes an annual 1% increase of atmospheric CO₂ content with effects mitigated by sulphate forcing. Potential distributions of species in one‐degree grid cells were modelled using a suitability index and rectilinear envelope based on bioclimate variables. Realized distributions were additionally limited by spatial contiguity with, and proximity to, known record sites. A size‐structured population model was simulated for each cell in the realized distributions to allow for lags in response to climate change, but dispersal was not included. Results In the resulting simulations, 43% of all species became non‐viable by 2095 because their potential distributions had changed drastically, but there was little change in the realized distributions of most species, owing to delays in population responses. Widely distributed species with high tolerance to environmental variation exhibited the least response to climate change, and species with narrow ranges and short generation times the greatest. Climate changed most in north‐east Amazonia while the best remaining conditions for lowland moist forest species were in western Amazonia. Main conclusions To maintain the greatest resilience of Amazonian biodiversity to climate change as modelled by HADCM2GSa1, highest priority should be given to strengthening and extending protected areas in western Amazonia that encompass lowland and montane forests.     

Building essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) of species distribution and abundance at a global scale

Much biodiversity data is collected worldwide, but it remains challenging to assemble the scattered knowledge for assessing biodiversity status and trends. The concept of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) was introduced to structure biodiversity monitoring globally, and to harmonize and standardize biodiversity data from disparate sources to capture a minimum set of critical variables required to study, report and manage biodiversity change. Here, we assess the challenges of a ‘Big Data’ approach to building global EBV data products across taxa and spatiotemporal scales, focusing on species distribution and abundance. The majority of currently available data on species distributions derives from incidentally reported observations or from surveys where presence‐only or presence–absence data are sampled repeatedly with standardized protocols. Most abundance data come from opportunistic population counts or from population time series using standardized protocols (e.g. repeated surveys of the same population from single or multiple sites). Enormous complexity exists in integrating these heterogeneous, multi‐source data sets across space, time, taxa and different sampling methods. Integration of such data into global EBV data products requires correcting biases introduced by imperfect detection and varying sampling effort, dealing with different spatial resolution and extents, harmonizing measurement units from different data sources or sampling methods, applying statistical tools and models for spatial inter‐ or extrapolation, and quantifying sources of uncertainty and errors in data and models. To support the development of EBVs by the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), we identify 11 key workflow steps that will operationalize the process of building EBV data products within and across research infrastructures worldwide. These workflow steps take multiple sequential activities into account, including identification and aggregation of various raw data sources, data quality control, taxonomic name matching and statistical modelling of integrated data. We illustrate these steps with concrete examples from existing citizen science and professional monitoring projects, including eBird, the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring network, the Living Planet Index and the Baltic Sea zooplankton monitoring. The identified workflow steps are applicable to both terrestrial and aquatic systems and a broad range of spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales. They depend on clear, findable and accessible metadata, and we provide an overview of current data and metadata standards. Several challenges remain to be solved for building global EBV data products: (i) developing tools and models for combining heterogeneous, multi‐source data sets and filling data gaps in geographic, temporal and taxonomic coverage, (ii) integrating emerging methods and technologies for data collection such as citizen science, sensor networks, DNA‐based techniques and satellite remote sensing, (iii) solving major technical issues related to data product structure, data storage, execution of workflows and the production process/cycle as well as approaching technical interoperability among research infrastructures, (iv) allowing semantic interoperability by developing and adopting standards and tools for capturing consistent data and metadata, and (v) ensuring legal interoperability by endorsing open data or data that are free from restrictions on use, modification and sharing. Addressing these challenges is critical for biodiversity research and for assessing progress towards conservation policy targets and sustainable development goals.     

Projecting impacts of global climate and land‐use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional‐turnover modelling

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine‐resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species–area relationship, to estimate the effect of land‐use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land‐use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio‐economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre‐2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land‐use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7–4.5 times compared to land‐use‐only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land‐use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre‐industrial times is observed.     

Making robust policy decisions using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.     

利用基于自然的解决方案促进生物多样性保护

生物多样性丧失是当今人类面临的重要危机之一,在以“爱知目标”为代表的生物多样性保护目标均未实现的背景下,如何推进变革性转型以遏制和扭转生物多样性丧失趋势成为当务之急。基于自然的解决方案(NbS)因其坚持整体性、系统性、多样性、稳定性、可持续性、权衡性和包容性等原则,成为应对全球危机的重要途径。该文通过分析机理和功能层面生物多样性和NbS的关系,阐明了NbS利用恢复生态系统的复杂性和营养级来指引生物多样性保护的路径,提出了利用NbS促进生物多样性保护的双重内涵,一是以提升生态系统多样性、稳定性、持续性为目标,二是利用自然生态过程。在建立NbS和生物多样性关联认知的基础上,该文进一步梳理了NbS的概念内涵与生物多样性保护目标的一致性,以及NbS在生态空间、农业空间、城镇空间对生物多样性保护的相关方法,归纳了NbS促进生物多样性的国内外实践案例,讨论了NbS协同促进生物多样性保护、应对气候变化和可持续发展的多重效益,展望了NbS纳入生物多样性保护战略规划的愿景,以期为促进《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》等框架履约、推进NbS在生物多样性保护主流化提供参考。     

Biodiversity loss and the taxonomic bottleneck: emerging biodiversity science

Human domination of the Earth has resulted in dramatic changes to global and local patterns of biodiversity. Biodiversity is critical to human sustainability because it drives the ecosystem services that provide the core of our life-support system. As we, the human species, are the primary factor leading to the decline in biodiversity, we need detailed information about the biodiversity and species composition of specific locations in order to understand how different species contribute to ecosystem services and how humans can sustainably conserve and manage biodiversity. Taxonomy and ecology, two fundamental sciences that generate the knowledge about biodiversity, are associated with a number of limitations that prevent them from providing the information needed to fully understand the relevance of biodiversity in its entirety for human sustainability: (1) biodiversity conservation strategies that tend to be overly focused on research and policy on a global scale with little impact on local biodiversity; (2) the small knowledge base of extant global biodiversity; (3) a lack of much-needed site-specific data on the species composition of communities in human-dominated landscapes, which hinders ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation; (4) biodiversity studies with a lack of taxonomic precision; (5) a lack of taxonomic expertise and trained taxonomists; (6) a taxonomic bottleneck in biodiversity inventory and assessment; and (7) neglect of taxonomic resources and a lack of taxonomic service infrastructure for biodiversity science. These limitations are directly related to contemporary trends in research, conservation strategies, environmental stewardship, environmental education, sustainable development, and local site-specific conservation. Today’s biological knowledge is built on the known global biodiversity, which represents barely 20% of what is currently extant (commonly accepted estimate of 10 million species) on planet Earth. Much remains unexplored and unknown, particularly in hotspots regions of Africa, South Eastern Asia, and South and Central America, including many developing or underdeveloped countries, where localized biodiversity is scarcely studied or described. "Backyard biodiversity", defined as local biodiversity near human habitation, refers to the natural resources and capital for ecosystem services at the grassroots level, which urgently needs to be explored, documented, and conserved as it is the backbone of sustainable economic development in these countries. Beginning with early identification and documentation of local flora and fauna, taxonomy has documented global biodiversity and natural history based on the collection of "backyard biodiversity" specimens worldwide. However, this branch of science suffered a continuous decline in the latter half of the twentieth century, and has now reached a point of potential demise. At present there are very few professional taxonomists and trained local parataxonomists worldwide, while the need for, and demands on, taxonomic services by conservation and resource management communities are rapidly increasing. Systematic collections, the material basis of biodiversity information, have been neglected and abandoned, particularly at institutions of higher learning. Considering the rapid increase in the human population and urbanization, human sustainability requires new conceptual and practical approaches to refocusing and energizing the study of the biodiversity that is the core of natural resources for sustainable development and biotic capital for sustaining our life-support system. In this paper we aim to document and extrapolate the essence of biodiversity, discuss the state and nature of taxonomic demise, the trends of recent biodiversity studies, and suggest reasonable approaches to a biodiversity science to facilitate the expansion of global biodiversity knowledge and to create useful data on backyard biodiversity worldwide towards human sustainability.     

四川省生物多样性与生态系统多功能性分析

生态系统服务与人类福祉和可持续发展息息相关,近年来生物多样性丧失极大影响了生态系统服务。探究生物多样性与生态系统服务之间的关系成为当前生态学领域内的一个重大科学问题。以四川省各乡镇为单元,计算了景观尺度上的多样性指数,评估了四川省水土保持功能、水源涵养功能、固碳功能,并研究了两者之间关系。结果表明：在景观尺度上,Shannon''s多样性指数、修正Simpson''s多样性指数、景观丰度三种多样性指数可以较好表征四川省生物多样性空间分布格局。由景观丰度、欧式最近邻距离的标准差、景观丰度密度构成解释变量矩阵,RDA模型矫正解释率42.25%（P<0.001）,可更好解释由土壤保持功能、水源涵养功能、固碳功能构成的响应变量矩阵。四川省生物多样性及生态系统服务关系的模式有以下几种：（1）成都平原区区县空间距离较近,在生态系统服务和生物多样性梯度均差异较小;（2）盆周山地区、盆地丘陵区各区县在水土保持功能梯度上差异较大,与多样性关系较弱;（3）川西高原区区县在固碳、水源涵养梯度上差异较大,并有协同关系,多样性梯度差异较大;（4）川西高山峡谷区、西南山地区区县之间生态系统服务和多样性差异较大,生态系统服务可能存在强烈权衡关系,需进一步引入解释因子。     

Exclusion of agricultural lands in spatial conservation prioritization strategies: consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem service representation

Agroecosystems have traditionally been considered incompatible with biological conservation goals, and often been excluded from spatial conservation prioritization strategies. The consequences for the representativeness of identified priority areas have been little explored. Here, we evaluate these for biodiversity and carbon storage representation when agricultural land areas are excluded from a spatial prioritization strategy for South America. Comparing different prioritization approaches, we also assess how the spatial overlap of priority areas changes. The exclusion of agricultural lands was detrimental to biodiversity representation, indicating that priority areas for agricultural production overlap with areas of relatively high occurrence of species. By contrast, exclusion of agricultural lands benefits representation of carbon storage within priority areas, as lands of high value for agriculture and carbon storage overlap little. When agricultural lands were included and equally weighted with biodiversity and carbon storage, a balanced representation resulted. Our findings suggest that with appropriate management, South American agroecosystems can significantly contribute to biodiversity conservation.     

中国生物多样性研究的30个核心问题

在联合国《生物多样性公约》生效30年和《生物多样性》创刊30周年之际, 我们通过问卷调查从281名中国研究人员收集到763个生物多样性相关的研究问题, 通过归纳与整理, 并参考英国生态学会提出的100个生态学基本问题, 从中筛选出30个核心问题。这些问题涉及7个方面: 演化与生态(6个问题)、种群(4个问题)、群落与多样性(7个问题)、生态系统与功能(3个问题)、人类影响与全球变化(4个问题)、方法与监测(4个问题)、生物多样性保护(2个问题)。前5个方面主要聚焦在物种形成、生物多样性维持等的关键过程与机制、生物多样性与生态功能关系、全球变化对生物多样性的影响机制等, 第6方面主要涉及生物监测与预测、数据共享等, 第7方面涉及多样性保护、自然与人类健康关系这两个与公众息息相关的重要话题。这30个问题的筛选难免存在偏颇, 希望能以此为契机, 促进我国生物多样性研究人员对本领域核心问题的深入思考与探讨。     

生物多样性重要区域识别——国外案例、国内研究进展

生物多样性丧失已经成为全球重大环境问题之一,重要区域或重要物种的识别是制定和实施保护计划的首要步骤,生物多样性保护的优先性研究成为保护生物学研究的焦点之一。优先保护的概念很早就被提出,保护国际(Conservation International,CI)一直倡导的热点地区途径受到国际社会的重视,生物多样性重要区域(KBAs)可以是综合的,也可以是单一类群的重要区域,如不同的国家已经开展了鸟类重要区域(important bird areas,IBAs)、植物重要区域(important plants areas,IPAs)、蝴蝶重要区域(prime butterfly areas,PBAs)和两栖爬行动物重要区域(important amphibians and reptiles areas,IARAs)等的识别研究工作。集中力量优先保护一些重要的地区是目前生物多样性保护较为现实和高效的途径。以佛得角群岛(the Cape Verde Islands)、意大利(Italy)、荷兰(the Netherlands)分别依据动物、植物单一类群或多个类群组合进行生物多样性重要区域识别为例,介绍了几个国家的生物多样性重要区域识别经验,概述国内在生物多样性重要区域识别领域的研究现状,详细介绍了海南岛生物多样性保护优先区识别案例,同时以国务院2010年批准实施的《中国生物多样性保护战略与行动计划(2011—2030年)》划定的32个陆地生物多样性保护优先区为例,提出中国未来应全面开展生物多样性本底调查,在充分获取生物多样性分布数据的基础上,依据植被类型和物种多样性以及受威胁因素等,在32个陆地生物多样性保护优先区内进一步客观准确地识别生物多样性重要区域(热点中的热点或重要区域中的重要区域),为中国未来的保护地规划、生物多样性监测、政策制定等提供科学支撑。     

Striking a new balance between agricultural production and biodiversity

Agricultural policy in Europe is changing from supporting production to encouraging environmental benefits in the context of sustainable rural development. As a result, there is a window of opportunity to reconsider the balance between agricultural production and biodiversity management on British farmland, to seek to redress the problems for biodiversity that accrued during intensification without reducing the capacity to meet the coming challenges of global change and population increase. These challenges are discussed in the context of longer term historical change, and in terms of how readily they can be overcome. Current policies can deliver conservation targets that are within the control of individual land managers, and are likely to increase landscape heterogeneity significantly. However, it will be more dif. cult to plan landscapes to deliver agricultural production, ecosystem services and conserve biodiversity in the face of nutrient deposition and climate change. There can be no theoretical “optimum” balance between production and biodiversity, as environmental goals depend greatly upon decisions about scales (from local to global, immediate to long) and the viewpoints of stakeholders. Indeed, the social challenge of delivering sustainable agricultural landscapes is far greater than the scientific one of researching what they might be like.     

Unravelling biodiversity,evolution and threats to conservation in the Sahara‐Sahel

Deserts and arid regions are generally perceived as bare and rather homogeneous areas of low diversity. The Sahara is the largest warm desert in the world and together with the arid Sahel displays high topographical and climatic heterogeneity, and has experienced recent and strong climatic oscillations that have greatly shifted biodiversity distribution and community composition. The large size, remoteness and long‐term political instability of the Sahara‐Sahel, have limited knowledge on its biodiversity. However, over the last decade, there have been an increasing number of published scientific studies based on modern geomatic and molecular tools, and broad sampling of taxa of these regions. This review tracks trends in knowledge about biodiversity patterns, processes and threats across the Sahara‐Sahel, and anticipates needs for biodiversity research and conservation. Recent studies are changing completely the perception of regional biodiversity patterns. Instead of relatively low species diversity with distribution covering most of the region, studies now suggest a high rate of endemism and larger number of species, with much narrower and fragmented ranges, frequently limited to micro‐hotspots of biodiversity. Molecular‐based studies are also unravelling cryptic diversity associated with mountains, which together with recent distribution atlases, allows identifying integrative biogeographic patterns in biodiversity distribution. Mapping of multivariate environmental variation (at 1 km × 1 km resolution) of the region illustrates main biogeographical features of the Sahara‐Sahel and supports recently hypothesised dispersal corridors and refugia. Micro‐scale water‐features present mostly in mountains have been associated with local biodiversity hotspots. However, the distribution of available data on vertebrates highlights current knowledge gaps that still apply to a large proportion of the Sahara‐Sahel. Current research is providing insights into key evolutionary and ecological processes, including causes and timing of radiation and divergence for multiple taxa, and associating the onset of the Sahara with diversification processes for low‐mobility vertebrates. Examples of phylogeographic patterns are showing the importance of allopatric speciation in the Sahara‐Sahel, and this review presents a synthetic overview of the most commonly hypothesised diversification mechanisms. Studies are also stressing that biodiversity is threatened by increasing human activities in the region, including overhunting and natural resources prospection, and in the future by predicted global warming. A representation of areas of conflict, landmines, and natural resources extraction illustrates how human activities and regional insecurity are hampering biodiversity research and conservation. Although there are still numerous knowledge gaps for the optimised conservation of biodiversity in the region, a set of research priorities is provided to identify the framework data needed to support regional conservation planning.     

Synergies and trade‐offs between renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation – a cross‐national multifactor analysis

Increased deployment of renewable energy can contribute towards mitigating climate change and improving air quality, wealth and development. However, renewable energy technologies are not free of environmental impacts; thus, it is important to identify opportunities and potential threats from the expansion of renewable energy deployment. Currently, there is no cross‐national comprehensive analysis linking renewable energy potential simultaneously to socio‐economic and political factors and biodiversity priority locations. Here, we quantify the relationship between the fraction of land‐based renewable energy (including solar photovoltaic, wind and bioenergy) potential available outside the top biodiversity areas (i.e. outside the highest ranked 30% priority areas for biodiversity conservation) within each country, with selected socio‐economic and geopolitical factors as well as biodiversity assets. We do so for two scenarios that identify priority areas for biodiversity conservation alternatively in a globally coordinated manner vs. separately for individual countries. We show that very different opportunities and challenges emerge if the priority areas for biodiversity protection are identified globally or designated nationally. In the former scenario, potential for solar, wind and bioenergy outside the top biodiversity areas is highest in developing countries, in sparsely populated countries and in countries of low biodiversity potential but with high air pollution mortality. Conversely, when priority areas for biodiversity protection are designated nationally, renewable energy potential outside the top biodiversity areas is highest in countries with good governance but also in countries with high biodiversity potential and population density. Overall, these results identify both clear opportunities but also risks that should be considered carefully when making decisions about renewable energy policies.     

Funding begets biodiversity

Aim Effective conservation of biodiversity relies on an unbiased knowledge of its distribution. Conservation priority assessments are typically based on the levels of species richness, endemism and threat. Areas identified as important receive the majority of conservation investments, often facilitating further research that results in more species discoveries. Here, we test whether there is circularity between funding and perceived biodiversity, which may reinforce the conservation status of areas already perceived to be important while other areas with less initial funding may remain overlooked. Location Eastern Arc Mountains, Tanzania. Methods We analysed time series data (1980–2007) of funding (n = 134 projects) and plant species records (n = 75,631) from a newly compiled database. Perceived plant diversity, over three decades, is regressed against funding and environmental factors, and variances decomposed in partial regressions. Cross‐correlations are used to assess whether perceived biodiversity drives funding or vice versa. Results Funding explained 65% of variation in perceived biodiversity patterns – six times more variation than accounted for by 34 candidate environmental factors. Cross‐correlation analysis showed that funding is likely to be driving conservation priorities and not vice versa. It was also apparent that investment itself may trigger further investments as a result of reduced start‐up costs for new projects in areas where infrastructure already exists. It is therefore difficult to establish whether funding, perceived biodiversity, or both drive further funding. However, in all cases, the results suggest that regional assessments of biodiversity conservation importance may be biased by investment. Funding effects might also confound studies on mechanisms of species richness patterns. Main conclusions Continued biodiversity loss commands urgent conservation action even if our knowledge of its whereabouts is incomplete; however, by concentrating inventory funds in areas already perceived as important in terms of biodiversity and/or where start‐up costs are lower, we risk losing other areas of underestimated or unknown value.     

生物多样性国际研究态势分析

生物多样性研究是综合性和高度交叉性的跨学科研究领域,是1997年底Science周刊上预测的1998年及近期的6个重大科学热点之一。检索1986—2008年间SCIE文献数据库中关于生物多样性的研究论文(article,proceedings paper和review),利用Thomson Data Analyzer(TDA)分析工具和Aureka分析平台进行数据挖掘。分析表明,该研究涉及多个学科领域,近年来在生态学领域的论文数量增加最多,而生物多样性保护、进化生物学、生物化学与分子生物学方面的论文增长速度较快。生物多样性研究越来越重视全球变化和人类社会对生物多样性的影响,DNA技术和基因工程等先进技术在生物多样性研究和保护中的作用也更加突出。     

气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制

气候变化与生物多样性丧失是人类社会正在经历的两大变化。气候变化影响生物多样性的方方面面, 是导致生物多样性丧失的一个主要驱动因子; 反过来, 生物多样性丧失会加剧气候变化。因此, 阻止甚至扭转气候变化和生物多样性丧失是当前人类社会亟需解决的全球性问题,但我们对气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制尚缺乏清晰认识。本文总结了近年气候变化与生物多样性变化的研究进展, 重点概述了不同组织层次、空间尺度和维度的生物多样性对气候变化的响应和反馈等相关领域的研究进展和存在的主要问题。结果发现多数研究关注气候变化对生物多样性的直接影响, 涉及到生物多样性的不同组织层次、维度和营养级, 但针对气候变化间接影响的研究仍然较少, 机理研究同样需要加强; 生物多样性对生态系统功能影响的环境依赖和尺度推演、生物多样性对生态系统多功能性的作用机理和量化方法是当前研究面临的挑战; 生物多样性对生态系统响应气候变化的作用机制尚无统一的认识; 生物多样性对气候变化的正、负反馈效应是国内外研究的盲点。最后, 本文展望了未来发展方向和需要解决的关键科学问题, 包括多因子气候变化对生物多样性的影响; 减缓和适应气候变化的措施如何惠益于生物多样性保护; 生物多样性与生态系统功能的理论如何应用到现实世界; 生物多样性保护对实现碳中和目标的贡献。