基于实际蒸散构建的干旱指数在黄淮海地区的适用性

基于NOAH陆面模式模拟的实际蒸散产品,分析了2002—2010年黄淮海地区实际蒸散的时空分布特征.同时,结合MOD17潜在蒸散数据和MOD13 NDVI构建了2002—2010年的农业干旱指数——干旱敏感性指数(DSI),并以2002年1—12月为例,利用帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI)、冬小麦减产率以及实际旱情资料,分析了DSI在该地区干旱监测的适用性.结果表明: 黄淮海地区年均实际蒸散从西北向东南递增,最高值出现在研究区域东南部(800~900 mm),最低值出现在西北部(<300 mm);DSI、PDSI两种干旱指数的年际变化呈正相关(R²=0.61)和变化趋势的一致性,均在2002年达到最低(-0.61和-1.33),2003年最高(0.81和0.92),DSI与冬小麦减产率的相关性(R²=0.43)明显优于PDSI(R²=0.06),且表征干旱的空间分辨率较高,对区域农业干旱程度的判断和旱情的指示比较可靠.     

江苏省典型干旱过程特征

为了研究江苏省重大干旱过程的生消和演变特征,选取2006年10-11月覆盖全省的一次严重秋旱事件作为典型个例,收集54个气象台站的逐日气象观测资料,计算逐日复合气象干旱指数CI值,以此为基础统计干旱发生的开始日期、结束日期、持续日数和逐日旱强,研究全省和各地区的旱情生消和演变特征;选用MODIS产品数据,利用植被供水指数法,反演干旱发展过程;利用实测土壤相对湿度数据,在ArcGIS9.3中采用反距离权重插值法,分析干旱事件中土壤湿度的空间变化特征.研究结果表明:(1)在这一典型秋旱事件中,由CI指数、VWSI指数和土壤相对湿度反映的大气、植被、土壤干旱的生消和演变过程基本一致.(2)干旱的发生是由西北到东南逐渐扩展蔓延,结束则由东南向西北逐渐收缩消失,持续天数从北向南递减.(3)旱情总体上北重南轻,但不同地区因大气背景和自然地理条件不同发展过程差异较大.(4)利用CI指数、VSWI指数和土壤湿度可以较全面而系统地监测干旱过程的生消、演变和强度变化.     

基于温度植被干旱指数的土库曼斯坦典型绿洲干旱遥感监测

针对目前中亚地区广泛存在的农业干旱问题,选取土库曼斯坦典型绿洲为研究区,利用2幅MODIS影像和同期过境的Landsat影像,获取归一化植被指数(NDVI)和地表温度(Ts),构建NDVI-Ts特征空间,计算得到2001和2011年2种温度植被干旱指数TVDITM和TVDIMODIS.利用较高分辨率的Landsat TM数据对MODIS数据反演结果进行验证.结果表明:2001年、2011年TVDITM和TVDIMODIS的绝对误差分别为0.0178和0.0228;均方根误差分别为0.0226和0.0279;相关系数分别为0.949和0.922,说明TVDI可有效反映区域土壤干旱情况.研究区内干旱区域占总面积的60％以上,旱情由绿洲中心向外围逐步严重.近10年来,研究区内土壤湿度低值区呈现扩大趋势,湿润和正常所占比例下降了5.32％,干旱和重旱的比例上升了14％,旱情情况总体加剧.因此,利用MODIS影像的温度植被旱情指数可有效地监测中亚地区干旱情况.     

SPEI指数在中国东北地区干旱研究中的适用性分析

干旱指数的区域适用性是准确表征区域干旱的重要前提,本文以中国东北地区为典型研究区,探讨标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)在该地区应用的有效性。基于研究区90个气象台站的逐日气象资料,计算1961—2014年多时间尺度的SPEI指数。从Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)拟合优度检验、SPEI与典型干旱事件核准、SPEI与农作物受旱灾面积及与土壤湿度相关性分析等方面,验证SPEI指数在东北地区的适用性。分析结果表明:1)东北地区多时间尺度的累积水分亏缺量符合Log-logistic分布,SPEI指数在东北地区的应用具备数学统计理论基础;2)生长季平均SPEI值与黑龙江省、吉林省和辽宁省农作物受旱灾面积比例均呈极显著负相关(P0.01);3)在1、3、6和12个月尺度下,SPEI与土壤湿度呈显著正相关(P0.05)的站点比例分别为90.2%、92.16%、90.2%和88.24%。综上所述,SPEI指数不仅满足数学理论统计的要求,而且与干旱灾情数据和土壤水分监测值均具有极度的关联性,说明其在东北地区干旱预测和定量化研究中具有较好的适用性。     

基于土壤水分模拟的干旱动态监测指标及其适用性

根据土壤水分平衡原理,采用Penman-Monteith公式计算可能蒸散,逐日滚动模拟土壤有效水分,提出基于土壤水分(SM)的逐日干旱动态监测指标。通过与《气象干旱等级》国家标准中标准化降水指数(SPI)、相对湿润度指数(MI)和综合气象干旱指数(CI)相比较,分析了SM干旱动态监测指标在广东的适用性特征。结果表明:(1)基于SM统计的干旱频发时段(11月—翌年4月)比少雨时段(10月—翌年3月)滞后1个月,SM指标能够刻画干旱相对于降水年变化的滞后效应和逐渐发展的特征,客观反映广东干旱频率季节变化特征;(2)SM干旱指标自动隐含了降水-蒸发过程的时间累积效应,物理意义清晰,能够刻画干旱发生、发展和结束过程的丰富细节,在对干旱过程发展渐进性、降水敏感性和过程完整性方面,具有较好的应用价值。     

基于综合气象干旱指数的1961—2012年阿勒泰地区干旱时空演变特征

基于阿勒泰地区7个气象站1961—2012年的逐日气温、降水等气象资料,运用趋势分析法、M-K突变检验法、小波分析法并结合Arc GIS软件,探究了阿勒泰地区干旱的时空演变特征.结果表明:综合气象干旱指数能较好地反映阿勒泰地区干旱状况.研究期间,阿勒泰地区虽然年和四季的干旱频次和不同等级干旱覆盖范围都呈减少趋势,但是旱情仍较为严重,年和季节的干旱发生频繁,且多年存在重旱和特旱发生在整个阿勒泰地区;秋季和冬季的干旱频次分别在1997和1983年发生减少突变,夏季的干旱频次首先在1962年发生增加突变,随后在1991年发生减少突变,年均和春季的干旱频次无突变发生;年和四季的干旱频次都存在明显的周期性.干旱频次和不同干旱等级在空间上的分布表明,东部清河县旱情较为严重,中部阿勒泰市、富蕴县、布尔津县、福海县旱情次之,西部地区的哈巴河和吉木乃县的旱情较轻.     

基于综合气象干旱指数的1961—2012年阿勒泰地区干旱时空演变特征

基于阿勒泰地区7个气象站1961—2012年的逐日气温、降水等气象资料,运用趋势分析法、M-K突变检验法、小波分析法并结合ArcGIS软件,探究了阿勒泰地区干旱的时空演变特征.结果表明： 综合气象干旱指数能较好地反映阿勒泰地区干旱状况.研究期间,阿勒泰地区虽然年和四季的干旱频次和不同等级干旱覆盖范围都呈减少趋势,但是旱情仍较为严重,年和季节的干旱发生频繁,且多年存在重旱和特旱发生在整个阿勒泰地区;秋季和冬季的干旱频次分别在1997和1983年发生减少突变,夏季的干旱频次首先在1962年发生增加突变,随后在1991年发生减少突变,年均和春季的干旱频次无突变发生;年和四季的干旱频次都存在明显的周期性.干旱频次和不同干旱等级在空间上的分布表明,东部清河县旱情较为严重,中部阿勒泰市、富蕴县、布尔津县、福海县旱情次之,西部地区的哈巴河和吉木乃县的旱情较轻.     

气候变化背景下中国南方地区季节性干旱特征与适应Ⅵ.防旱避灾种植模式优化布局

南方地区是我国重要的农业种植区,季节性干旱严重影响该地区的农业生产.本文基于南方地区不同干旱分区中选取的13个典型地区1981-2007年气象资料和作物生育期、产量等资料,依据各地逐年降水量将其分为干旱年、正常年和丰水年3种不同降水年型,利用作物水分临界期需水量与降水量的耦合度、气象产量、单位面积产值以及全生育期的水分利用效率和降水量5个指标,对典型地区种植模式的综合效益进行评价,得到南方不同区域不同降水年型下的优化种植模式.结果表明: 半干旱区在干旱年型下,宜采取2种抗旱种植模式：马铃-玉米-甘薯和冬小麦-中稻-甘薯.半湿润区在干旱年型下,种植模式以冬小麦-中稻-甘薯最优,油菜-中稻-甘薯次之.在温润区(即典型的季节性干旱区),江南地区在3种年型下均以马铃薯-双季稻最优;西南地区宜搭配抗旱作物进行三熟制种植,如冬小麦-中稻-甘薯、冬小麦-玉米-甘薯、马铃薯-双季稻等.从最大程度利用水热资源角度考虑,三熟种植模式最优,以水旱轮作为主,丰水年型宜搭配水稻.     

基于MODIS的东北地区自然植被生产力对干旱的响应

干旱对全球陆地生态系统影响广泛,中国东北地区干湿分异典型,干旱面积有逐步增大趋势,为了解东北地区自然植被生产力对干旱的响应,基于MODIS公开的数据产品、降水数据和scPDSI,采用统计学方法,在明确2002—2013年东北地区干旱分布特征的基础上,分析自然植被NPP、LAI和CUE的时空变化规律,探究自然植被对独立干旱事件和持续干旱的响应,结果表明:①从2002—2013年平均水平上看,森林的NPP和LAI年平均值明显高于草地,CUE年平均值略低于草地;②森林和草地均通过降低NPP和LAI来应对独立干旱事件,森林的NPP在干旱年过后第3年显著低于干旱前,LAI在干旱年过后第2年显著高于干旱前,而且这种变化效应至少持续到干旱年过后第4年;草地的NPP和LAI仅在独立干旱年当年有显著变化;③随着干旱的持续,森林NPP增加的比例有扩大趋势,LAI_(Baseline)较低的森林在持续干旱时ΔLAI_(Dryn)增加的可能性越大;草地对持续干旱也具有一定的适用能力,而且NPP_(Baseline)、LAI_(Baseline)和CUE_(Baseline)较低的草地,在持续干旱时ΔNPP_(Dryn)、ΔLAI_(Dryn)和ΔCUE_(Dryn)增加的可能性越大;④无论是独立干旱事件还是持续干旱,森林或草地的CUE变化很少达到显著性水平,变化规律的显著性也低于NPP和LAI。该项研究将为提高干旱对自然生态系统影响的评估能力做出贡献。     

基于SPEI-PM指数的黄淮海平原干旱特征分析

利用黄淮海平原45个气象站点1961—2014年月值气象数据,基于Penman-Monteith蒸散模型计算了标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),对黄淮海平原近54年干旱变化趋势、发生频率和持续性特征进行了分析,并探讨了SPEI指数与河南、河北和山东省农业干旱面积的关系,结果表明:(1)改用Penman-Monteith蒸散公式后,SPEI干旱指数在黄淮海平原呈整体上升趋势,即趋于湿润;(2)近54年干旱演变具有明显的年代际差异,20世纪60年代干旱频率最高,而21世纪初(2000—2014)干旱频率整体偏低;(3)黄淮海平原干旱发生具有持续性的特点,20世纪60年代遭受的持续性干旱最为严重,平均干旱持续时长约2.6个月,21世纪初下降到1.5个月;(4)河南、河北和山东省的农业干旱面积年际变化表明,干旱面积呈减少趋势,2000年以后年均受灾面积、成灾面积和绝收面积比2000年之前分别下降了58.0%、44.4%和49.1%;(5)农业干旱面积与SPEI具有中等以上的相关强度,其中对山东省受灾、成灾和绝收面积相关系数r达到-0.7以上,表明基于Penman-Monteith蒸散模型的SPEI指数在黄淮海平原具有良好的适用性。     

Responses of tree-ring growth and crop yield to drought indices in the Shanxi province,North China

In this paper, we analyze the relationships among the tree-ring chronology, meteorological drought (precipitation), agricultural drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI), hydrological drought (runoff), and agricultural data in the Shanxi province of North China. Correlation analyses indicate that the tree-ring chronology is significantly correlated with all of the drought indices during the main growing season from March to July. Sign test analyses further indicate that the tree-ring chronology shows variation similar to that of the drought indices in both high and low frequencies. Comparisons of the years with narrow tree rings to the severe droughts reflected in all three indices from 1957 to 2008 reveal that the radial growth of the trees in the study region can accurately record the severe drought for which all three indices were in agreement (1972, 1999, 2000, and 2001). Comparisons with the dryness/wetness index indicate that tree-ring growth can properly record the severe droughts in the history. Correlation analyses among agricultural data, tree-ring chronology, and drought indices indicate that the per-unit yield of summer crops is relatively well correlated with the agricultural drought, as indicated by the PDSI. The PDSI is the climatic factor that significantly influences both tree growth and per-unit yield of summer crops in the study region. These results indicate that the PDSI and tree-ring chronology have the potential to be used to monitor and predict the yield of summer crops. Tree-ring chronology is an important tool for drought research and for wider applications in agricultural and hydrological research.     

干旱指标研究进展

干旱作为全球最为常见的自然灾害之一,已经对我国的农业生产造成了严重影响。为更好地预测影响作物的干旱并及时采取应对措施,综述了国内外广泛应用的各类干旱指标,包括气象指标、土壤墒情指标、作物生理生态指标及其它综合监测指标等,评述了各类干旱指标的优缺点以及在农业上的适用性,探讨了未来以作物干旱为核心的干旱指标研究拟重视的方面,以为减缓和预防干旱对农业的不良影响及制订科学的政策提供依据。     

A drought rarity and evapotranspiration-based index as a suitable agricultural drought indicator

Agricultural drought has a substantial impact on crop yields and, thus, food security within the context of global climate change. Therefore, efforts should focus on agricultural drought detection and monitoring. Agricultural drought is identified as unusually dry conditions in which severe water stress impedes crop growth. Thus, the crop water deficit severity and rarity are both key factors in agricultural drought detection and are rarely considered simultaneously in existing drought indices. To overcome this limitation, an integrated agricultural drought index (IADI) based on drought rarity and evapotranspiration is proposed. As an important grain production base, Northeast China has suffered from frequent droughts in recent years, demonstrating an urgent need for accurate drought monitoring. In this study, the superiority of the IADI as an agricultural drought indicator through the detection of the severity and rarity was tested using the drought disaster area (DDA) and grain yield, and its performance was compared to that of the evaporative drought index (EDI), an indicator that accounts for only the water deficit severity. The response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought and its impact on the grain yield were further analyzed. The results showed that (1) the IADI can effectively capture the drought variability and identify drought events by combining the detection of the severity and rarity. (2) The R² value between the DDA and IADI (0.72) was higher than that with the EDI (0.50), and the same result was found in a comparative analysis using the grain yield, showing that the IADI is a suitable indicator for agricultural drought assessment. (3) Severe and extreme meteorological droughts and extreme agricultural droughts in western Jilin and western Liaoning were more frequent than in other regions, highlighting the agricultural drought tendency and sensitivity to precipitation deficit in this region. (4) The impacts of agricultural drought on grain yield in three provinces of Northeast China vary greatly during the crop-growing period, with the most significant impacts occurring from May to July. Therefore, this period represents the critical crop water requirement period, and timely irrigation should be ensured during this period.     

Tree-ring analysis over western Himalaya and its long-term association with vapor pressure and potential evapotranspiration

Multi species tree-ring chronologies of the western Himalaya revealed strong significant negative relationship with potential evapotranspiration (PET) and vapor pressure (VP), and positive with moisture index (MI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during spring season (March to May). The preliminary study showed that the MI and PDSI particularly in spring season might have a large scale positive association in developing of annual ring-width patterns, whereas PET and VP during the season are found not to be conducive for the trees growth. PET and VP from the beginning of the year 1917 showed strong influence on tree growth. High and low PET/VP might be associated with low and high MI/PDSI of the region. Extremely narrow ring width indices were observed in the year of 1921, 1941, 1953, 1954 and 1985 at most of the tree sites which are under the severe moisture stress condition due to extremely high PET and VP of the region. Also, extremely low PET and VP were found during 1917, 1933 and 1982, reflecting ring-width index above the normal due to enough moisture supply. Thus, the released and suppressed tree growth over the region is probably linked with the high and low MI/PDSI of the region. Loss or accumulation of soil moisture of the region might be precondition before the starting of growing season of the trees. The recent observation also suggests a weakening of VP and PET's influence on tree growth during recent few decades as compared to early period in sliding 31-years windows over western Himalaya. Correlation analysis of PET with MI and VP as well as PDSI for the period 1902–2002 during spring season indicated statistically strong correlation (r = −0.53, 0.82, −0.50) respectively which is highly significant at 0.01% level.     

基于同化数据的标准化土壤湿度指数监测农业干旱的适宜性研究

农业干旱是导致作物减产的主要灾害之一,及时、准确地监测农业干旱状况有助于制定区域减灾策略,降低灾害损失。标准化土壤湿度指数(SSMI)是基于历史土壤湿度时间序列构建的一种农业干旱指数,目前分析该指数监测农业干旱的适宜性研究十分缺乏。本文以黄淮海平原为研究区,利用数据同化的根区土壤湿度数据构建SSMI,并通过与标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)、农业干旱灾害记录数据的对比以及与冬小麦产量的关系分析,综合评价SSMI监测农业干旱的适宜性。结果表明,SSMI与SPEI具有良好的一致性,二者之间具有极显著相关关系(P0.001);利用SSMI识别的农业干旱与农气站点干旱灾害记录是基本一致的,SSMI能够有效反映干旱发生、发展直至减轻的演变过程;冬小麦生长季SSMI与减产率显著相关,利用SSMI识别的农业干旱发生区域与基于统计数据计算的减产区域基本相符,SSMI能够对农业干旱引起的冬小麦减产起到一定的指示作用。综上所述,基于同化数据构建的SSMI能够反映黄淮海平原的农业干旱状况,利用SSMI监测区域农业干旱状况是适宜的。研究可为基于土壤湿度的农业干旱监测业务化运行提供依据,为黄淮海平原的抗旱减灾提供科学参考。     

Predicting live herbaceous moisture content from a seasonal drought index

In order to provide a relatively simple means of predicting live herbaceous plant moisture content from a readily available meteorological index with an accuracy adequate for fire hazard assessment, the moisture content fluctuations of certain species were correlated with the values of a seasonal drought index based on soil moisture deficiency. The simple linear regression models provided the best fit of the relationship between plant moisture content and the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI) values. KBDI predicted with accuracy, for two growing seasons, the moisture content of three annual herbaceous plants ( Piptatherum miliaceum, Parietaria diffusa, Avena sterillis) with shallow rooting systems, typical of the understory vegetation of Pinus brutia forests in the Mediterranean region of Crete, Greece. The greatest aberrations between measured and predicted values of plant moisture content were observed early (May) and late (September) in the growing season, when plant phenology (flushing and withering stages respectively) appears to become the dominant factor in determining plant moisture content regardless of the soil moisture conditions. The KBDI was poorly correlated with the live-needle moisture content of deeply rooted P. brutia trees and modestly with the soil water content of the upper layers. This indicates that the index adequately reflects the moisture condition of the surface soil layers but not the water content deeper in the soil.     

干旱监测指数研究

日益严重的全球化干旱问题已经成为各国科学家和政府部门共同关注的热点,它直接威胁着人类的生存环境.而干旱监测,尤其是遥感干旱监测,一直是科学界公认的难题.本文对传统的干旱监测指数如帕尔默干旱指数、作物湿度指数、标准降水指数、地表水分供应指数的优缺点进行评述;将遥感干旱监测指数分成2类,一类是基于地表反射率和发射率的干旱监测指数;另一类是基于地表水和能量平衡模型的干旱监测指数,详细介绍了这2类干旱遥感监测指数的原理、方法以及适用范围.对各种干旱监测指数存在的问题以及干旱监测的发展趋势进行了探讨.     

Amazon drought and forest response: Largely reduced forest photosynthesis but slightly increased canopy greenness during the extreme drought of 2015/2016

Amazon droughts have impacted regional ecosystem functioning as well as global carbon cycling. The severe dry‐season droughts in 2005 and 2010, driven by Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, have been widely investigated in terms of drought severity and impacts on ecosystems. Although the influence of Pacific SST anomaly on wet‐season precipitation has been well recognized, it remains uncertain to what extent the droughts driven by Pacific SST anomaly could affect forest greenness and photosynthesis in the Amazon. Here, we examined the monthly and annual dynamics of forest greenness and photosynthetic capacity when Amazon ecosystems experienced an extreme drought in 2015/2016 driven by a strong El Niño event. We found that the drought during August 2015–July 2016 was one of the two most severe meteorological droughts since 1901. Due to the enhanced solar radiation during this drought, overall forest greenness showed a small increase, and 21.6% of forests even greened up (greenness index anomaly ≥1 standard deviation). In contrast, solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), an indicator of vegetation photosynthetic capacity, showed a significant decrease. Responses of forest greenness and photosynthesis decoupled during this drought, indicating that forest photosynthesis could still be suppressed regardless of the variation in canopy greenness. If future El Niño frequency increases as projected by earth system models, droughts would result in persistent reduction in Amazon forest productivity, substantial changes in tree composition, and considerable carbon emissions from Amazon.     

Growth-climate response and drought reconstruction from tree-ring of Mongolian pine in Hulunbuir,Northeast China

Aims Drought affected by atmosphere–ocean cycle is a dominant factor influencing tree radial growth of sandy Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) and regional vegetation dynamics in Hulunbuir, China. However, historical droughts and its correlations with tree radial growth and atmosphere–ocean cycle in this area have been little tested. Methods We developed tree-ring chronologies of Mongolian pine from Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia, China and analyzed the correlations between tree-ring width index, the normalized difference vegetation index and Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), then developed a linear model to reconstruct the drought variability from 1829 to 2009. Long-term trends and its linkages with atmosphere–ocean cycle were performed by the power spectral, wavelet and teleconnection analysis.Important findings The local moisture variations affected largely the regional vegetation dynamics and tree-ring growth of Mongolia pine in the forest–grassland transition. Using tree-ring width chronology of Mongolian pine, the reconstruction explains 49.2% of PDSI variance during their common data period (1951–2005). The reconstruction gives a broad-scale regional representation of PDSI in the Hulunbuir area, with drought occurrences in the 1850s, 1900s, 1920s, mid-1930s and at the turn of the 21st century. Comparisons with other tree-ring drought reconstructions and historical records reveal some common drought periods and drying trends in recent decades at the northern margin zones of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The drying trends in these zones occurred earlier than weakening of the EASM. A REDFIT spectral analysis shows significant peaks at 7.2, 3.9, 2.7–2.8, 2.4 and 2.2 years with a 0.05 significance level, and 36.9, 18.1 and 5.0 years with 0.1 significance level. Wavelet analysis also shows similar cycles. Drought variations in the study area significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and middle and northern Indian Ocean, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. This suggests a possible linkage with the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, the EASM and the Westerlies.