Populations of the damselfly Coenagrion hastulatum at the edge of the species range have fewer gregarine and water mite parasites

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Species range expansion by beneficial mutations

A species' range can be limited when there is no genetic variation for a trait that allows for adaptation to more extreme environments. We study how range expansion occurs by the establishment of a new mutation that affects a quantitative trait in a spatially continuous population. The optimal phenotype for the trait varies linearly in space. The survival probabilities of new mutations affecting the trait are found by simulation. Shallow environmental gradients favour mutations that arise nearer to the range margin and that have smaller phenotypic effects than do steep gradients. Mutations that become established in shallow environmental gradients typically result in proportionally larger range expansions than those that establish in steep gradients. Mutations that become established in populations with high maximum growth rates tend to originate nearer to the range edge and to cause relatively smaller range expansion than mutations that establish in populations with low maximum growth rates. Under plausible parameter values, mutations that allow for range expansion tend to have large phenotypic effects (more than one phenotypic standard deviation) and cause substantial range expansions (15% or more). Sexual reproduction allows for larger range expansions and adaptation to more extreme environments than asexual reproduction.     

Thermal specialization across large geographical scales predicts the resilience of mangrove crab populations to global warming

The broad prediction that ectotherms will be more vulnerable to climate change in the tropics than in temperate regions includes assumptions about centre/edge population effects that can only be tested by within‐species comparisons across wide latitudinal gradients. Here, we investigated the thermal vulnerability of two mangrove crab species, comparing populations at the centre (Kenya) and edge (South Africa) of their distributions. At the same time, we investigated the role of respiratory mode (water‐ versus air‐breathing) in determining the thermal tolerance in amphibious organisms. To do this, we compared the vulnerability to acute temperature fluctuations of two sympatric species with two different lifestyle adaptations: the free living Perisesarma guttatum and the burrowing Uca urvillei, both pivotal to the ecosystem functioning of mangroves. The results revealed the air‐breathing U. urvillei to be a thermal generalist with much higher thermal tolerances than P. guttatum. Importantly, however, we found that, while U. urvillei showed little difference between edge and centre populations, P. guttatum showed adaptation to local conditions. Equatorial populations had elevated tolerances to acute heat stress and mechanisms of partial thermoregulation, which make them less vulnerable to global warming than temperate conspecifics. The results reveal both the importance of respiratory mode to thermal tolerance and the unexpected potential for low latitude populations/species to endure a warming climate. The results also contribute to a conceptual model on the latitudinal thermal tolerance of these key species. This highlights the need for an integrated population‐level approach to predict the consequences of climate change.     

GENETIC SIGNATURE OF ADAPTIVE PEAK SHIFT IN THREESPINE STICKLEBACK

Transition of an evolving population to a new adaptive optimum is predicted to leave a signature in the distribution of effect sizes of fixed mutations. If they affect many traits (are pleiotropic), large effect mutations should contribute more when a population evolves to a farther adaptive peak than to a nearer peak. We tested this prediction in wild threespine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus) by comparing the estimated frequency of large effect genetic changes underlying evolution as the same ancestor adapted to two lake types since the end of the ice age. A higher frequency of large effect genetic changes (quantitative trait loci) contributed to adaptive evolution in populations that adapted to lakes representing a more distant optimum than to lakes in which the optimum phenotype was nearer to the ancestral state. Our results also indicate that pleiotropy, not just optimum overshoot, contributes to this difference. These results suggest that a series of adaptive improvements to a new environment leaves a detectable mark in the genome of wild populations. Although not all assumptions of the theory are likely met in natural systems, the prediction may be robust enough to the complexities of natural environments to be useful when forecasting adaptive responses to large environmental changes.     

Density-dependent habitat selection: Testing the theory with fitness data

Summary According to density-dependent habitat selection theory, reproductive success should decline with increased density. Fitness should be similar between habitats if habitat selection follows an ideal free distribution; fitness should be dissimilar between habitats if habitat selection is modified by territorial behavior. I tested these assumptions by examining a variety of fitness estimates obtained from white-footed mice living in nest boxes in forest, forest edge and fencerow habitats in southwestern Ontario. As expected, mean litter size declined with increased population density. Litter sizes, adult longevity and the proportion of adult animals in breeding condition were not significantly different among the three habitats. The success at recruiting at least one offspring to the adult population and the number of recruits per litter were much greater in the forest than in either of the other two habitats. Fitness was thus unequal among habitats and the results confirm both assumptions of density-dependent habitat selection theory for territorial white-footed mice.     

Molecular evolution and modern human origins

While molecular evolutionists may be fascinated by the features and history of a particular gene or DNA segment, evolutionary anthropologists are often more interested in the activities and history of groups of people. We may want to know, for instance, when and where humans have migrated, how much exchange between groups has taken place, and how population sizes have changed. Population genetic theory provides the hope that through analyses of genetic data we will gain insight into the history of populations. Genetic data from extant human populations are now accruing at a remarkable rate. We might, therefore, expect to have answers in hand. There remains, however, a wide gap between the available theory and data; too often we fail to draw firm conclusions because our interpretation of analytic results requires that we make myriad assumptions about our data. In any one instance, these assumptions might include estimates of mutation rate, mutational mechanism, population sizes, the role that natural selection has played, and the rate of migration among groups. Often these assumptions are implicit, invisible to most. How, then, are we to make any progress? © 1998 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

A genome-wide departure from the standard neutral model in natural populations of Drosophila

We analyze nucleotide polymorphism data for a large number of loci in areas of normal to high recombination in Drosophila melanogaster and D. simulans (24 and 16 loci, respectively). We find a genome-wide, systematic departure from the neutral expectation for a panmictic population at equilibrium in natural populations of both species. The distribution of sequence-based estimates of 2Nc across loci is inconsistent with the assumptions of the standard neutral theory, given the observed levels of nucleotide diversity and accepted values for recombination and mutation rates. Under these assumptions, most estimates of 2Nc are severalfold too low; in other words, both species exhibit greater intralocus linkage disequilibrium than expected. Variation in recombination or mutation rates is not sufficient to account for the excess of linkage disequilibrium. While an equilibrium island model does not seem to account for the data, more complicated forms of population structure may. A proper test of alternative demographic models will require loci to be sampled in a more consistent fashion.     

Glacial refugia,haplotype distributions,and clonal richness of the Daphnia pulex complex in arctic Canada

As part of a large international Arctic biodiversity expedition (Tundra Northwest '99), we examined the distribution of members of the arctic Daphnia pulex complex (Cladocera, Anomopoda) from 121 tundra ponds, spread across 16 sites spanning a large portion of arctic Canada (i.e. from 62 degrees 22' N to 79 degrees 01' N; 66 degrees 45' W to 139 degrees 37' W). Using allozyme electrophoresis and mitochondrial (mt)DNA analyses, we examined the population genetic (clonal) structure of these populations. The following taxa were detected in this complex: Daphnia pulicaria, D. middendorffiana and D. tenebrosa. Clear geographical differences in mean clonal richness and diversity were observed, with most western sites exhibiting higher clonal richness and diversity, than sites in the eastern Canadian Arctic. For both the pulicaria group (i.e. D. pulicaria and D. middendorffiana) and D. tenebrosa, the highest mean regional clonal richness was detected from the southern section of Banks Island, an unglaciated site situated on the edge or directly in the eastern fringe of the Beringian glacial refuge. A significant negative correlation was found between geographical distance from the Beringian edge, and overall regional clonal richness (i.e. sites closer to the edge harboured greater clonal richness). These results clearly indicate that more recently deglaciated regions (i.e. eastern Canadian Arctic) harbour lower levels of clonal richness than western regions nearer Beringia. We discuss the role that glacial refugia have played in influencing both biotic and genetic diversity in arctic taxa.     

Sex ratio polymorphism: The impact of mutation and drift on evolution

This paper addresses the question, which sex ratio will evolve in a population that is subject to mutation and drift. The problem is analyzed using a simulation model as well as analytical methods. A detailed simulation model for the evolution of a population's allele distribution shows that for the sex ratio game a wide spectrum of different population states may evolve from on the one hand a monomorphic state with one predominant allele and with all other alleles suppressed by the forces of selection, to on the other hand a polymorphism determined by recurrent mutations. Which of these states will evolve depends on the population size, the mating system and the rate of mutations. For the sex ratio game the evolutionary stable strategy (ESS), as defined by evolutionary game theory, can only predict the population sex ratio but not the underlying stable population state. A comparison of different approaches to the problem shows that false predictions of the stable population states might result from two simplifying assumptions that are fairly common in evolutionary biology: a) it is assumed that mutations are rare events and there is never more than one mutant gene present in a population at any one time; b) a deterministic relationship is assumed between the fitness assigned to an individual's strategy and the individual's contribution to the gene pool of future generations.     

Population resistance to climate change: modelling the effects of low recruitment in open populations

Isolated populations or those at the edge of their distribution are usually more sensitive to changes in the environment, such as climate change. For the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides (L.), one possible effect of climate change is that unpredictable spring weather could lead to the mismatching of larval release with spring phytoplankton bloom, hence reducing the recruitment. In this paper, model simulations of a variable open population with space limited recruitment were used to investigate the effects of low and zero recruitment on population abundance in S. balanoides. Data for model parameters was taken from an isolated population in the Isle of Man, British Isles. Model simulations with observed frequencies of years with low recruitment showed only small changes in population dynamics. Increased frequencies of low recruitment had large effects on the variation in population growth rate and free space and on population structure. Furthermore, populations with intermediate to high frequencies of low recruitment appeared more sensitive to additional changes in recruitment. Exchanging low recruitment with zero recruitment severely increased the risk of local extinctions. Simulations with consecutive years of low recruitment showed a substantial increase in free space and an increase in the time taken to recover to normal densities. In conclusion, model simulations indicate that variable populations can be well buffered to changes in the demography caused by introduced environmental noise, but also, that intermediate to high frequencies of disturbance can lead to a swift change in population dynamics, which in turn, may affect the dynamics of whole communities.     

A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags

While poleward species migration in response to recent climatic warming is widely documented, few studies have examined entire range responses of broadly distributed sessile organisms, including changes on both the trailing (equatorward) and the leading (poleward) range edges. From a detailed population census throughout the entire geographical range of Aloe dichotoma Masson, a long-lived Namib Desert tree, together with data from repeat photographs, we present strong evidence that a developing range shift in this species is a 'fingerprint' of anthropogenic climate change. This is explained at a high level of statistical significance by population level impacts of observed regional warming and resulting water balance constraints. Generalized linear models suggest that greater mortalities and population declines in equatorward populations are virtually certainly the result, due to anthropogenic climate change, of the progressive exceedance of critical climate thresholds that are relatively closer to the species' tolerance limits in equatorward sites. Equatorward population declines are also broadly consistent with bioclimatically modelled projections under anticipated anthropogenic climate change but, as yet, there is no evidence of poleward range expansion into the area predicted to become suitable in future, despite good evidence for positive population growth trends in poleward populations. This study is among the first to show a marked lag between trailing edge population extinction and leading edge range expansion in a species experiencing anthropogenic climate change impacts, a pattern likely to apply to most sessile and poorly dispersed organisms. This provides support for conservative assumptions of species' migration rates when modelling climate change impacts for such species. Aloe dichotoma 's response to climate change suggests that desert ecosystems may be more sensitive to climate change than previously suspected.     

Host–pathogen coevolution,secondary sympatry and species diversification

The build-up of species locally within a region by allopatric speciation depends on geographically separated (allopatric) sister populations becoming reproductively incompatible followed by secondary sympatry. Among birds, this has happened frequently in remote archipelagos, spectacular cases including the Darwin''s finches (Geospizinae) and Hawaiian honeycreepers (Drepanidinae), but similar examples are lacking in archipelagos nearer to continental landmasses. Of the required steps in the speciation cycle, achievement of secondary sympatry appears to be limiting in near archipelagos and, by extension, in continental regions. Here, I suggest that secondary sympatry might be prevented by apparent competition mediated through pathogens that are locally coevolved with one population of host and are pathogenic in sister populations. The absence of numerous pathogens in remote archipelagos might, therefore, allow sister populations to achieve secondary sympatry more readily and thereby accelerate diversification. By similar reasoning, species should accumulate relatively slowly within continental regions. In this essay, I explore the assumptions and some implications of this model for species diversification.     

Abiotic and biotic determinants of the seasonal dynamics of the tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus in South Africa

Abstract. The creation of a generic population model for the tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus requires a detailed, quantified understanding of the interactions of these ticks with their biotic and abiotic environment in the different parts of their range, from the tropical regions of East Africa to the temperate regions of South Africa. The much greater seasonal variation in climatic conditions, particularly temperature, further from the equator introduces variable development rates and diapause into the life cycle. Estimates of natural temperature-dependent interstadial development periods, derived from a combination of published laboratory and field data, were applied to published data on the seasonal abundance of R.appendiculatus on three farms in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. This enabled an assessment of which ticks of one stage give rise to which ticks of the next stage, from which (a) the onset and duration of diapause in unfed adults, and (b) seasonal interstadial mortality indices in the form of fc-values, could be estimated. The contribution of biotic (tick density) and abiotic (climatic) factors as predictors of mortality at each life stage was investigated by step-wise multiple regression. Density-independent mortality at the female-to-larval stage is correlated with geographically variable climatic factors, minimum temperature at two farms and minimum relative humidity at the third. The other two stages are governed by density-dependent mortality, which, it is argued, may be caused largely by the hosts' acquired resistance to ticks. As expected on theoretical grounds, this density dependence is weaker nearer to the edge of the tick's range and for the more vulnerable immature stages.     

Dual-level toxicity assessment of biodegradable pesticides to aquatic species

The use of ecological models to assess the effects of pesticides on the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems is of growing interest. Of utmost concern is assessment of pesticides that have the potential to biodegrade into metabolites that are as toxic as the parent pesticide. In this work, a mathematical model to predict and evaluate the effect of two pesticides on the population of aquatic biospecies where both pesticides are bio-available in water and sediments with one of the pesticides capable of biodegrading into the other but not vice versa is formulated and analyzed. Conditions for nonlinear stability, instability and Hopf-bifurcation are obtained. The model undergoes a Hopf-bifurcation when the rate of discharge of pesticides crosses a critical value, so that the population of the aquatic species follows an oscillatory pattern. Four hypotheses involving the concentration of the pesticides and the population of the aquatic species where qualitatively investigated: the aquatic species will completely die out with time, the population of the aquatic biospecies will remain under certain conditions, the pesticide will continually remain in water and there will be a periodic variation in the population of the aquatic species over time. Results also indicate that the biodegradation potential of one of the pesticides had significant effect on the population dynamics of the aquatic species.     

On the structure and stability of mutualistic systems: Analysis of predator-prey and competition models as modified by the action of a slow-growing mutualist

Two basic models of mutualism are presented in which interactions among three species lead to mutualism between two of them. The models represent 2-species predator-prey or competition systems in which a third species acts as a mutualist with either the predator, the prey, or one of the competitors. The models include the assumptions that there is a cost of associating with the mutualist and that the mutualist population grows much more slowly than the other two populations. Special cases of these two models correspond to six qualitatively different types of mutualistic benefit, all of which are known to occur in nature: deterring predation, increasing prey availability, feeding on (or competing with) a predator, increasing competitive interactions, decreasing competitive interactions, and feeding on (or competing with) a competitor. These models and their special cases are subjected to a local stability analysis. The results show that mutualism based upon deterring predation, competing with a predator, or decreasing competitive interactions enhances local stability, while mutualism based upon increasing prey availability or increasing competitive interactions reduces local stability. These results clearly reject the idea that mutualism is an inherently unstable process, and reinforces the idea that each different kind of mutualism will have to be considered separately. Compared to 2-species models of mutualism, the 3-species models provide a more realistic representation of the structure of many mutualistic systems, the mechanisms by which one species benefits another, and the regulation of the interaction.     

Linking the planktonic and benthic habitat: genetic structure of the marine diatom Skeletonema marinoi

Dormant life stages are important strategies for many aquatic organisms. The formation of resting stages will provide a refuge from unfavourable conditions in the water column, and their successive accumulation in the benthos will constitute a genetic reservoir for future planktonic populations. We have determined the genetic structure of a common bloom‐forming diatom, Skeletonema marinoi, in the sediment and the plankton during spring, summer and autumn two subsequent years (2007–2009) in Gullmar Fjord on the Swedish west coast. Eight polymorphic microsatellite loci were used to assess the level of genetic differentiation and the respective gene diversity of the two different habitats. We also determined the degree of genetic differentiation between the seed banks inside the fjord and the open sea. The results indicate that Gullmar Fjord has one dominant endogenous population of S. marinoi, which is genetically differentiated from the open sea population. The fjord population is encountered in the plankton and in the sediment. Shifts from the dominant population can happen, and in our study, two genetically differentiated plankton populations, displaying reduced genetic diversity, occurred in September 2007 and 2008. Based on our results, we suggest that sill fjords maintain local long‐lived and well‐adapted protist populations, which continuously shift between the planktonic and benthic habitats. Intermittently, short‐lived and mainly asexually reproducing populations can replace the dominant population in the water column, without influencing the genetic structure of the benthic seed bank.     

Phylogeography of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau endemic Juniperus przewalskii (Cupressaceae) inferred from chloroplast DNA sequence variation

The vegetation of the northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is dominated by alpine meadow and desert-steppe with sparse forests scattered within it. To obtain a better understanding of the phylogeography of one constituent species of the forests in this region, we examined chloroplast trnT-trnF and trnS-trnG sequence variation within Juniperus przewalskii, a key endemic tree species. Sequence data were obtained from 392 trees in 20 populations covering the entire distribution range of the species. Six cpDNA haplotypes were identified. Significant population subdivision was detected (G(ST) = 0.772, N(ST) = 0.834), suggesting low levels of recurrent gene flow among populations and significant phylogeographic structure (N(ST) > G(ST), P < 0.05). Eight of the nine disjunct populations surveyed on the high-elevation northeast plateau were fixed for a single haplotype (A), while the remaining, more westerly population, contained the same haplotype at high frequency together with two low frequency haplotypes (C and F). In contrast, most populations that occurred at lower altitudes at the plateau edge were fixed or nearly fixed for one of two haplotypes, A or E. However, two plateau edge populations had haplotype compositions different from the rest. In one, four haplotypes (A, B, D and E) were present at approximately equivalent frequencies, which might reflect a larger refugium in the area of this population during the last glacial period. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the most widely distributed haplotype A is not ancestral to other haplotypes. The contrasting phylogeographic structures of the haplotype-rich plateau edge area and the almost haplotype-uniform plateau platform region indicate that the plateau platform was recolonized by J. przewalskii during the most recent postglacial period. This is supported by the findings of a nested clade analysis, which inferred that postglacial range expansion from the plateau edge followed by recent fragmentation is largely responsible for the present-day spatial distribution of cpDNA haplotypes within the species.     

Divergent natural selection with gene flow along major environmental gradients in Amazonia: insights from genome scans, population genetics and phylogeography of the characin fish Triportheus albus

The unparalleled diversity of tropical ecosystems like the Amazon Basin has been traditionally explained using spatial models within the context of climatic and geological history. Yet, it is adaptive genetic diversity that defines how species evolve and interact within an ecosystem. Here, we combine genome scans, population genetics and sequence-based phylogeographic analyses to examine spatial and ecological arrangements of selected and neutrally evolving regions of the genome of an Amazonian fish, Triportheus albus. Using a sampling design encompassing five major Amazonian rivers, three hydrochemical settings, 352 nuclear markers and two mitochondrial DNA genes, we assess the influence of environmental gradients as biodiversity drivers in Amazonia. We identify strong divergent natural selection with gene flow and isolation by environment across craton (black and clear colour)- and Andean (white colour)-derived water types. Furthermore, we find that heightened selection and population genetic structure present at the interface of these water types appears more powerful in generating diversity than the spatial arrangement of river systems and vicariant biogeographic history. The results from our study challenge assumptions about the origin and distribution of adaptive and neutral genetic diversity in tropical ecosystems. In addition, they have important implications for measures of biodiversity and evolutionary potential in one of the world's most diverse and iconic ecosystems.     

Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.     

Investigation on the taxonomic status of Steganacarus magnus and Steganacarus anomalus (Acari: Oribatida) using mitochondrial DNA sequences

To test the previously suggested synonymization of S. anomalus with the older S. magnus, a fragment of the mitochondrial COI gene was amplified via the polymerase chain reaction and sequenced. The sequence variation was examined in a total of 327 base pairs for four steganacarid mite populations, two of which belong to S. anomalus, one to S. magnus and one to S. hirsutus. The sequence variation suggests that S. magnus and S. anomalus are not distinct species and that the population from Fioreta (Siena) is more similar to that from Apulia than to the nearer population from the Apuan Alps. The results show the usefulness of this molecular approach as a tool for determining taxonomic status and for suggesting faunistic movements in the past millions of years.