The Geographic Distribution of a Tropical Montane Bird Is Limited by a Tree: Acorn Woodpeckers (Melanerpes formicivorus) and Colombian Oaks (Quercus humboldtii) in the Northern Andes

Species distributions are limited by a complex array of abiotic and biotic factors. In general, abiotic (climatic) factors are thought to explain species’ broad geographic distributions, while biotic factors regulate species’ abundance patterns at local scales. We used species distribution models to test the hypothesis that a biotic interaction with a tree, the Colombian oak (Quercus humboldtii), limits the broad-scale distribution of the Acorn Woodpecker (Melanerpes formicivorus) in the Northern Andes of South America. North American populations of Acorn Woodpeckers consume acorns from Quercus oaks and are limited by the presence of Quercus oaks. However, Acorn Woodpeckers in the Northern Andes seldom consume Colombian oak acorns (though may regularly drink sap from oak trees) and have been observed at sites without Colombian oaks, the sole species of Quercus found in South America. We found that climate-only models overpredicted Acorn Woodpecker distribution, suggesting that suitable abiotic conditions (e.g. in northern Ecuador) exist beyond the woodpecker’s southern range margin. In contrast, models that incorporate Colombian oak presence outperformed climate-only models and more accurately predicted the location of the Acorn Woodpecker’s southern range margin in southern Colombia. These findings support the hypothesis that a biotic interaction with Colombian oaks sets Acorn Woodpecker’s broad-scale geographic limit in South America, probably because Acorn Woodpeckers rely on Colombian oaks as a food resource (possibly for the oak’s sap rather than for acorns). Although empirical examples of particular plants limiting tropical birds’ distributions are scarce, we predict that similar biotic interactions may play an important role in structuring the geographic distributions of many species of tropical montane birds with specialized foraging behavior.     

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21^st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.     

Development and characterization of 79 nuclear markers amplifying in viviparous and oviparous clades of the European common lizard

The European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) is a widely distributed species across Europe and Asia exhibiting two reproductive modes (oviparity/viviparity), six major lineages and several sublineages. It has been used to tackle a large variety of research questions, nevertheless, few nuclear DNA sequence markers have been developed for this species. Here we developed 79 new nuclear DNA sequence markers using a clonation protocol. These markers were amplified in several oviparous and viviparous specimens including samples of all extant clades, to test the amplification success and their diversity. 49.4% of the markers were polymorphic and of those, 51.3% amplified in all and 94.9% amplified in 5–7 of the extant Z. vivipara clades. These new markers will be very useful for the study of the population structure, population dynamics, and micro/macro evolution of Z. vivipara. Cross-species amplification in four lizard species (Psammodromus edwardsianus, Podarcis muralis, Lacerta bilineata, and Takydromus sexlineatus) was positive in several of the markers, and six makers amplified in all five species. The large genetic distance between P. edwardsianus and Z. vivipara further suggests that these markers may as well be employed in many other species.     

Environmental gradients of selection for an alpine-obligate bird,the white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura)

The warming climate will expose alpine species adapted to a highly seasonal, harsh environment to novel environmental conditions. A species can shift their distribution, acclimate, or adapt in response to a new climate. Alpine species have little suitable habitat to shift their distribution, and the limits of acclimation will likely be tested by climate change in the long-term. Adaptive genetic variation may provide the raw material for species to adapt to this changing environment. Here, we use a genomic approach to describe adaptive divergence in an alpine-obligate species, the white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species distributed from Alaska to New Mexico, across an environmentally variable geographic range. Previous work has identified genetic structure and morphological, behavioral, and physiological differences across the species’ range; however, those studies were unable to determine the degree to which adaptive divergence is correlated with local variation in environmental conditions. We used a genome-wide dataset generated from 95 white-tailed ptarmigan distributed throughout the species’ range and genotype–environment association analyses to identify the genetic signature and environmental drivers of local adaptation. We detected associations between multiple environmental gradients and candidate adaptive loci, suggesting ptarmigan populations may be locally adapted to the plant community composition, elevation, local climate, and to the seasonality of the environment. Overall, our results suggest there may be groups within the species’ range with genetic variation that could be essential for adapting to a changing climate and helpful in guiding conservation action.Subject terms: Ecological genetics, Evolutionary ecology     

High Cryptic Diversity across the Global Range of the Migratory Planktonic Copepods Pleuromamma piseki and P. gracilis

Although holoplankton are ocean drifters and exhibit high dispersal potential, a number of studies on single species are finding highly divergent genetic clades. These cryptic species complexes are important to discover and describe, as identification of common marine species is fundamental to understanding ecosystem dynamics. Here we investigate the global diversity within Pleuromamma piseki and P. gracilis, two dominant members of the migratory zooplankton assemblage in subtropical and tropical waters worldwide. Using DNA sequence data from the mitochondrial gene cytochrome c oxidase subunit II (mtCOII) from 522 specimens collected across the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, we discover twelve well-resolved genetically distinct clades in this species complex (Bayesian posterior probabilities >0.7; 6.3–17% genetic divergence between clades). The morphologically described species P. piseki and P. gracilis did not form monophyletic groups, rather they were distributed throughout the phylogeny and sometimes co-occurred within well-resolved clades: this result suggests that morphological characters currently used for taxonomic identification of P. gracilis and P. piseki may be inaccurate as indicators of species’ boundaries. Cryptic clades within the species complex ranged from being common to rare, and from cosmopolitan to highly restricted in distribution across the global ocean. These novel lineages appear to be ecologically divergent, with distinct biogeographic distributions across varied pelagic habitats. We hypothesize that these mtDNA lineages are distinct species and suggest that resolving their systematic status is important, given the ecological significance of the genus Pleuromamma in subtropical-tropical waters worldwide.     

Ecological Niche Transferability Using Invasive Species as a Case Study

Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species’ native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species’ native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger’s I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species’ dynamics in the invaded range.     

In Search of Glacial Refuges of the Land Snail Orcula dolium (Pulmonata,Orculidae) - An Integrative Approach Using DNA Sequence and Fossil Data

Harboring a large number of endemic species, the Alps and the Western Carpathians are considered as major centers of biodiversity. Nonetheless, the general opinion until the turn of the millennium was that both Central European mountain regions did not provide suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum, but were colonized later from southern refuges. However, recent molecular genetic studies provide new evidence for peripheral Alpine refuges. We studied the phylogeography of the calciphilous land snail O. dolium across its distribution in the Alps and the Western Carpathians to assess the amount of intraspecific differentiation and to detect potential glacial refuges. A partial sequence of the mitochondrial COI was analyzed in 373 specimens from 135 sampling sites, and for a subset of individuals, partial sequences of the mitochondrial 16S and the nuclear histone H3 and H4 were sequenced. A molecular clock analysis was combined with a reconstruction of the species’ geographic range history to estimate how its lineages spread in the course of time. In order to obtain further information on the species’ past distribution, we also screened its extensive Pleistocene fossil record. The reconstruction of geographic range history suggests that O. dolium is of Western Carpathian origin and diversified already around the Miocene-Pliocene boundary. The fossil record supports the species’ presence at more than 40 sites during the last glacial and earlier cold periods, most of them in the Western Carpathians and the Pannonian Basin. The populations of O. dolium display a high genetic diversity with maximum intraspecific p-distances of 18.4% (COI) and 14.4% (16S). The existence of various diverged clades suggests the survival in several geographically separated refuges. Moreover, the sequence patterns provide evidence of multiple migrations between the Alps and the Western Carpathians. The results indicate that the Southern Calcareous Alps were probably colonized only during the Holocene.     

Agricultural Management and Climatic Change Are the Major Drivers of Biodiversity Change in the UK

Action to reduce anthropogenic impact on the environment and species within it will be most effective when targeted towards activities that have the greatest impact on biodiversity. To do this effectively we need to better understand the relative importance of different activities and how they drive changes in species’ populations. Here, we present a novel, flexible framework that reviews evidence for the relative importance of these drivers of change and uses it to explain recent alterations in species’ populations. We review drivers of change across four hundred species sampled from a broad range of taxonomic groups in the UK. We found that species’ population change (~1970–2012) has been most strongly impacted by intensive management of agricultural land and by climatic change. The impact of the former was primarily deleterious, whereas the impact of climatic change to date has been more mixed. Findings were similar across the three major taxonomic groups assessed (insects, vascular plants and vertebrates). In general, the way a habitat was managed had a greater impact than changes in its extent, which accords with the relatively small changes in the areas occupied by different habitats during our study period, compared to substantial changes in habitat management. Of the drivers classified as conservation measures, low-intensity management of agricultural land and habitat creation had the greatest impact. Our framework could be used to assess the relative importance of drivers at a range of scales to better inform our policy and management decisions. Furthermore, by scoring the quality of evidence, this framework helps us identify research gaps and needs.     

Movements and Habitat Use of an Endangered Snake,Hoplocephalus bungaroides (Elapidae): Implications for Conservation

A detailed understanding of how extensively animals move through the landscape, and the habitat features upon which they rely, can identify conservation priorities and thus inform management planning. For many endangered species, information on habitat use either is sparse, or is based upon studies from a small part of the species’ range. The broad-headed snake (Hoplocephalus bungaroides) is restricted to a specialized habitat (sandstone outcrops and nearby forests) within a small geographic range in south-eastern Australia. Previous research on this endangered taxon was done at a single site in the extreme south of the species’ geographic range. We captured and radio-tracked 9 adult broad-headed snakes at sites in the northern part of the species’ distribution, to evaluate the generality of results from prior studies, and to identify critical habitat components for this northern population. Snakes spent most of winter beneath sun-warmed rocks then shifted to tree hollows in summer. Thermal regimes within retreat-sites support the hypothesis that this shift is thermally driven. Intervals between successive displacements were longer than in the southern snakes but dispersal distances per move and home ranges were similar. Our snakes showed non-random preferences both in terms of macrohabitat (e.g., avoidance of some vegetation types) and microhabitat (e.g., frequent use of hollow-bearing trees). Despite many consistencies, the ecology of this species differs enough between southern and northern extremes of its range that managers need to incorporate information on local features to most effectively conserve this threatened reptile.     

Geographic variation in the age of temperate-zone reptile and amphibian species: Southern Hemisphere species are older

Despite controversy over alternative definitions, the species is the fundamental operational unit of biodiversity, and species are the building-blocks of conservation. But is a ‘species’ from one part of the world the same as a ‘species’ from elsewhere? Our meta-analysis of molecular phylogenetic data reveals that reptile and amphibian species distributed in temperate-zone areas of the Northern Hemisphere are younger than taxa from the Southern Hemisphere, probably reflecting the greater impact of past climatic variation on Northern Hemisphere habitats. Because a species'' age may influence its vulnerability to anthropogenic threats, geographical variation in species ages should be incorporated into conservation planning.     

Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.     

Genetic and ecological data reveal species boundaries between viviparous and oviparous lizard lineages

Identification of cryptic species is an essential aim for conservation biologists to avoid premature extinctions of ‘unrecognized'' species. Integrating different types of data can undoubtedly aid in resolving the issue of species delimitation. We studied here two lineages of the common lizard Zootoca vivipara that display different reproductive mode (the viviparous Z. v. vivipara and the oviparous Z. v. carniolica) and that overlap their distributional ranges in the European Alps. With the purpose of delimiting species'' boundaries, we analyzed their ecological, genetic and natural history features. More than 300 samples were collected and analyzed at cytochrome b and 11 microsatellites loci for investigating genetic variation, population structure, individual relatedness and evolutionary histories of the two lineages. Additionally, we compared their ecological niches using eight ecological variables. Genetic data showed contrasting patterns of genetic structure between the two lineages, different demographic dynamics and no hybridization events. Also strong ecological differences (such as temperature) emerged between the two lineages, and niche overlap was limited. Taken together, these results indicate that Z. v. vivipara and Z. v. carniolica should be recognized as two separate species, and particular conservation consideration should be given to the oviparous lineage that tends to live in areas threatened by increasing impact of human activities. However, recent and rapid climate warming might determine an increasing risk for the persistence of the viviparous lineage, being adapted to cold environments.     

CLIMBER: Climatic niche characteristics of the butterflies in Europe

Detailed information on species’ ecological niche characteristics that can be related to declines and extinctions is indispensable for a better understanding of the relationship between the occurrence and performance of wild species and their environment and, moreover, for an improved assessment of the impacts of global change. Knowledge on species characteristics such as habitat requirements is already available in the ecological literature for butterflies, but information about their climatic requirements is still lacking. Here we present a unique dataset on the climatic niche characteristics of 397 European butterflies representing 91% of the European species (see Appendix). These characteristics were obtained by combining detailed information on butterfly distributions in Europe (which also led to the ‘Distribution Atlas of Butterflies in Europe’) and the corresponding climatic conditions. The presented dataset comprises information for the position and breadth of the following climatic niche characteristics: mean annual temperature, range in annual temperature, growing degree days, annual precipitation sum, range in annual precipitation and soil water content. The climatic niche position is indicated by the median and mean value for each climate variable across a species’ range, accompanied by the 95% confidence interval for the mean and the number of grid cells used for calculations. Climatic niche breadth is indicated by the standard deviation and the minimum and maximum values for each climatic variable across a species’ range. Database compilation was based on high quality standards and the data are ready to use for a broad range of applications.It is already evident that the information provided in this dataset is of great relevance for basic and applied ecology. Based on the species temperature index (STI, i.e. the mean temperature value per species), the community temperature index (CTI, i.e. the average STI value across the species in a community) was recently adopted as an indicator of climate change impact on biodiversity by the pan-European framework supporting the Convention on Biological Diversity (Streamlining European Biodiversity Indicators 2010) and has already been used in several scientific publications. The application potential of this database ranges from theoretical aspects such as assessments of past niche evolution or analyses of trait interdependencies to the very applied aspects of measuring, monitoring and projecting historical, ongoing and potential future responses to climate change using butterflies as an indicator.     

Climate-Induced Elevational Range Shifts and Increase in Plant Species Richness in a Himalayan Biodiversity Epicentre

Global average temperature increase during the last century has induced species geographic range shifts and extinctions. Montane floras, in particular, are highly sensitive to climate change and mountains serve as suitable observation sites for tracing climate-induced biological response. The Himalaya constitute an important global biodiversity hotspot, yet studies on species’ response to climate change from this region are lacking. Here we use historical (1849–50) and the recent (2007–2010) data on temperature and endemic species’ elevational ranges to perform a correlative study in the two alpine valleys of Sikkim. We show that the ongoing warming in the alpine Sikkim Himalaya has transformed the plant assemblages. This study lends support to the hypothesis that changing climate is causing species distribution changes. We provide first evidence of warmer winters in the region compared to the last two centuries, with mean temperatures of the warmest and the coldest months may have increased by 0.76±0.25°C and 3.65±2°C, respectively. Warming-driven geographical range shifts were recorded in 87% of 124 endemic plant species studied in the region; upper range extensions of species have resulted in increased species richness in the upper alpine zone, compared to the 19^th century. We recorded a shift of 23–998 m in species’ upper elevation limit and a mean upward displacement rate of 27.53±22.04 m/decade in the present study. We infer that the present-day plant assemblages and community structure in the Himalaya is substantially different from the last century and is, therefore, in a state of flux under the impact of warming. The continued trend of warming is likely to result in ongoing elevational range contractions and eventually, species extinctions, particularly at mountaintops.     

Relics of the Europe's warm past: phylogeography of the Aesculapian snake

Understanding how species responded to past climate change can provide information about how they may respond to the current global warming. Here we show how a European reptile species responded to the last natural global warming event at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition that led to the Holocene climatic optimum approximately 5000-8000 years ago. The Aesculapian snake, Zamenis longissimus, is a thermophilous species whose present-day distribution in the southern half of Europe is a remnant of much wider range during the Holocene climatic optimum when populations occurred as far north as Denmark. These northern populations went extinct as the climate cooled, and presently the species is extinct from all central Europe, except few relic populations in locally suitable microhabitats in Germany and the Czech Republic. Our phylogenetic and demographic analyses identified two major clades that expanded from their respective western and eastern refugia after the last glacial maximum (18,000-23,000 years ago) and contributed approximately equally to the present range. Snakes from the relic northern populations carried the Eastern clade, showing that it was primarily the snakes from the eastern, probably Balkan, refugium that occupied the central and northern Europe during the Holocene climatic optimum. Two small, deep-branching clades were identified in near the Black Sea and in Greece. These clades provide evidence for two additional refugia, which did not successfully contribute to the colonization of Europe. If, as our results suggest, some populations responded to the mid-Holocene global warming by shifting their ranges further north than other populations of the same species, knowing what populations were able to expand in different species may provide information about what populations will be important for the species' ability to cope with the current global warming.     

The Use of Climatic Niches in Screening Procedures for Introduced Species to Evaluate Risk of Spread: A Case with the American Eastern Grey Squirrel

Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM), a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM), a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM). Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel’s niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species’ climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range.     

Is Bocourt’s Terrific Skink Really So Terrific? Trophic Myth and Reality

Many scientists argue that our planet is undergoing a mass extinction event that is largely due to human influences. In this context, rediscoveries of species presumed to be extinct are encouraging and of great potential interest. During a 2003 expedition to New Caledonia, Bocourt’s terrific skink, Phoboscincus bocourti, was unexpectedly rediscovered on a small islet by one of us. This skink species had been described from a single specimen collected around 1872 in New Caledonia. Since that time, however, no data on the species’ biology, trophic interactions, or role in the ecosystem have been collected, making it difficult to follow the established conservation plan. In this study, we used a multidisciplinary approach involving natural history, anatomy, morphology, genetics, and stable isotopes to elucidate the ecology of Bocourt’s terrific skink. Over the course of three different expeditions to the islet (total of 55 days across 2005 and 2012), we captured 4 individuals and observed another 4 individuals. The species’ dentition and trophic ecology suggest that it is a top predator in its ecosystem and a major consumer of small terrestrial reptiles. Its high degree of genetic relatedness to another New Caledonian skink, which has a broad distribution, suggests that P. bocourti underwent genetic isolation at a geographical remote location, where dispersal or colonization was highly improbable. Moreover, the lack of genetic variation among the four individuals we captured may imply that a unique lineage, characterized by few inter-island exchanges, exists on the islet. Bocourt’s terrific skink may be the largest terrestrial squamate predator alive in New Caledonia today. As a result, it is likely vulnerable to habitat modifications and especially the invasive rodents found on this islet. Further information is necessary to assess the conservation plans and practices in place as no concrete changes have been made since the species’ rediscovery almost 10 years ago.     

Genome-wide genetic variation coupled with demographic and ecological niche modeling of the dusky-footed woodrat (Neotoma fuscipes) reveal patterns of deep divergence and widespread Holocene expansion across northern California

Understanding how species have responded to past climate change may help refine projections of how species and biotic communities will respond to future change. Here, we integrate estimates of genome-wide genetic variation with demographic and niche modeling to investigate the historical biogeography of an important ecological engineer: the dusky-footed woodrat, Neotoma fuscipes. We use RADseq to generate a genome-wide dataset for 71 individuals from across the geographic distribution of the species in California. We estimate population structure using several model-based methods and infer the demographic history of regional populations using a site frequency spectrum-based approach. Additionally, we use ecological niche modeling to infer current and past (Last Glacial Maximum) environmental suitability across the species’ distribution. Finally, we estimate the directionality and possible spatial origins of regional population expansions. Our analyses indicate this species is subdivided into three regionally distinct populations, with the deepest divergence occurring ~1.7 million years ago across the modern-day San Francisco-Bay Delta region; a common biogeographic barrier for the flora and fauna of California. Our models of environmental suitability through time coincide with our estimates of population expansion, with relative long-term stability in the southern portion of the range, and more recent expansion into the northern end of the range. Our study illustrates how the integration of genome-wide data with spatial and demographic modeling can reveal the timing and spatial extent of historic events that determine patterns of biotic diversity and may help predict biotic response to future change.Subject terms: Evolutionary genetics, Molecular evolution     

Interspecific trait variability and local soil conditions modulate grassland model community responses to climate

Medium‐to‐high elevation grasslands provide critical services in agriculture and ecosystem stabilization, through high biodiversity and providing food for wildlife. However, these ecosystems face elevated risks of disruption due to predicted soil and climate changes. Separating the effects of soil and climate, however, is difficult in situ, with previous experiments focusing largely on monocultures instead of natural grassland communities. We experimentally exposed model grassland communities, comprised of three species grown on either local or reference soil, to varied climatic environments along an elevational gradient in the European Alps, measuring the effects on species and community traits. Although species‐specific biomass varied across soil and climate, species'' proportional contributions to community‐level biomass production remained consistent. Where species experienced low survivorship, species‐level biomass production was maintained through increased productivity of surviving individuals; however, maximum species‐level biomass was obtained under high survivorship. Species responded directionally to climatic variation, spatially separating differentially by plant traits (including height, reproduction, biomass, survival, leaf dry weight, and leaf area) consistently across all climates. Local soil variation drove stochastic trait responses across all species, with high levels of interactions occurring between site and species. This soil variability obscured climate‐driven responses: we recorded no directional trait responses for soil‐corrected traits like observed for climate‐corrected traits. Our species‐based approach contributes to our understanding of grassland community stabilization and suggests that these communities show some stability under climatic variation.     

Expertly Validated Models and Phylogenetically-Controlled Analysis Suggests Responses to Climate Change Are Related to Species Traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.