Predicting the intensity of the birch pollen season

We present a model for the prediction of the magnitude ofBetula flowering and pollen dispersal which may be used in the management of birch pollinosis and in the planning of clinical trials. The pollen sum during the flowering season is regressed on the temperature sum from May 1st to July 20th during the initiation year, the pollen sum of the initiation year, and the temperature sum during the main pollen season in the flowering year. We suggest that the fluctuating flowering pattern inBetula alba-species is primarily determined by the availability of assimilation products during inflorescence initiation and development during the spring one year before anthesis. When inflorescences, which are initiated during the previous year, elongate in the beginning of anthesis, they act as strong sinks to stored carbohydrates, and thus compete with developing leaves and shoots. The result is an initially reduced photosynthetic capacity in years with intense flowering, and a limited potential for the initiation of new inflorescences for the following year. The ambient temperature during catkin initiation affects assimilation efficiency and is a determinant of about equal importance to flowering intensity as is the magnitude of the flowering in the initiation year. The amount of pollen dispersed is also dependent on the weather during anthesis, which is not possible to predict until about one month in advance. The two other independent variables are available during the previous summer, making it possible to give a sufficiently valid prediction to allergologists about the magnitude of the next birch pollen season, according to its botanical determinants. We suggest that the varying reproductive output inBetula alba should not be described as true masting. A more parsimonious explanation to the flowering pattern is that an individual continually maximizes reproductive effort, according to what is possible, but that reproduction is often constrained by the environment.     

Predicting the intensity of the birch pollen season

We present a model for the prediction of the magnitude ofBetula flowering and pollen dispersal which may be used in the management of birch pollinosis and in the planning of clinical trials. The pollen sum during the flowering season is regressed on the temperature sum from May 1st to July 20th during the initiation year, the pollen sum of the initiation year, and the temperature sum during the main pollen season in the flowering year. We suggest that the fluctuating flowering pattern inBetula alba-species is primarily determined by the availability of assimilation products during inflorescence initiation and development during the spring one year before anthesis. When inflorescences, which are initiated during the previous year, elongate in the beginning of anthesis, they act as strong sinks to stored carbohydrates, and thus compete with developing leaves and shoots. The result is an initially reduced photosynthetic capacity in years with intense flowering, and a limited potential for the initiation of new inflorescences for the following year. The ambient temperature during catkin initiation affects assimilation efficiency and is a determinant of about equal importance to flowering intensity as is the magnitude of the flowering in the initiation year. The amount of pollen dispersed is also dependent on the weather during anthesis, which is not possible to predict until about one month in advance. The two other independent variables are available during the previous summer, making it possible to give a sufficiently valid prediction to allergologists about the magnitude of the next birch pollen season, according to its botanical determinants. We suggest that the varying reproductive output inBetula alba should not be described as true masting. A more parsimonious explanation to the flowering pattern is that an individual continually maximizes reproductive effort, according to what is possible, but that reproduction is often constrained by the environment.     

Long distance pollen transport cause problems for determining the timing of birch pollen season in Fennoscandia by using phenological observations

The male flowering and leaf bud burst of birch take place almost simultaneously, suggesting that the observations of leaf bud burst could be used to determine the timing of birch pollen release. However, long‐distance transport of birch pollen before the onset of local flowering may complicate the utilization of phenological observations in pollen forecasting.

We compared the timing of leaf bud burst of silver birch with the timing of the stages of birch pollen season during an eight year period (1997–2004) at five sites in Finland. The stages of the birch pollen season were defined using four different thresholds: 1) the first date of the earliest three‐day period with airborne birch pollen counts exceeding 10 grains m^?3 air; and the dates when the accumulated pollen sum reaches 2) 5%; 3) 50% and 4) 95% of the annual total. Atmospheric modelling was used to determine the source areas for the observed long‐distance transported pollen, and the exploitability of phenological observations in pollen forecasting was evaluated.

Pair‐wise comparisons of means indicate that the timing of leaf bud burst fell closest to the date when the accumulated pollen sum reached 5% of the annual total, and did not differ significantly from it at any site (p<0.05; Student‐Newman‐Keuls test). It was found that the timing of leaf bud burst of silver birch overlaps with the first half of the main birch pollen season. However, phenological observations alone do not suffice to determine the timing of the main birch pollen season because of long‐distance transport of birch pollen.     

Integration of flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology: analysis of their spatial and temporal coherence in Germany (1992–1999)

We studied the possibility of integrating flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology in Germany. Data were analyzed for three pollen types (Betula, Poaceae, Artemisia) at 51 stations with pollen traps, and corresponding phenological flowering dates for 400 adjacent stations (< 25 km) for the years 1992–1993 and 1997–1999. The spatial and temporal coherence of these data sets was investigated by comparing start and peak of the pollen season with local minima and means of plant flowering. Our study revealed that start of birch pollen season occurred on average 5.7 days earlier than local birch flowering. For mugwort and grass, the pollen season started on average after local flowering was observed; mugwort pollen was found 4.8 days later and grass pollen season started almost on the same day (0.6 days later) as local flowering. Whereas the peak of the birch pollen season coincided with the mean flowering dates (0.4 days later), the pollen peaks of the other two species took place much later. On average, the peak of mugwort pollen occurred 15.4 days later than mean local flowering, the peak of grass pollen catches followed 22.6 days after local flowering. The study revealed a great temporal divergence between pollen and flowering dates with an irregular spatial pattern across Germany. Not all pollen catches could be explained by local vegetation flowering. Possible reasons include long-distance transport, pollen contributions of other than phenologically observed species and methodological constraints. The results suggest that further research is needed before using flowering dates in phenology to extrapolate pollen counts.     

Birch pollen abundance in Reykjavík,Iceland

A ten-year birch pollen record for Reykjavík, Iceland, has been analyzed with respect to fluctuations in the annual pollen sum, the starting date, and the duration of the birch pollen season. A three-year cycle is observed for the annual birch pollen sum, which could be of value in predicting the severity of the next birch pollen season. The annual birch pollen sum is regressed on six climatic variables, only one of which turned out to be statistically significant. The number of days with temperatures above +7.5°C in the year of inflorescence initiation shows a significant correlation with the annual birch pollen sum of the following flowering year (P =0.009). For the starting date of the birch pollen season the accumulated thermal sum on May 15 is shown to have the best predictive value, estimating it to within one week. The mean duration of the birch pollen season in southwestern Iceland is 17 days, starting May 29 and ending June 14.     

Allergic symptoms caused by long-distance transported birch pollen

Birch pollen allergy is very common in northern Sweden, and the local flowering season never starts before the middle part of May. In the last week of April 1989 patients with birch pollen allergy developed typical symptoms requiring treatment. This pattern was confirmed in a group of patients who registered their symptoms in diaries, while contemporaneous pollen measurements demonstrated high amounts of birch pollen in the air. At that time in the northern part of Sweden, however, no birches were flowering. Meteorological data indicated that strong winds from the south-east during the period transported birch pollen from the Baltic states. Similar weather conditions in 1982, 1984 and in 1990 have also resulted in high amounts of birch pollen in the air long before the local flowering season. It is concluded that long distance transport of pollen may result in clinically significant allergy problems before, and even after the normal local season.     

Towards numerical forecasting of long-range air transport of birch pollen: theoretical considerations and a feasibility study

This paper considers the feasibility of numerical simulation of large-scale atmospheric transport of allergenic pollen. It is shown that at least small grains, such as birch pollen, can stay in the air for a few days, which leads to a characteristic scale for their transport of ∼10³ km. The analytical consideration confirmed the applicability of existing dispersion models to the pollen transport task and provided some reference parameterizations of the key processes, including dry and wet deposition. The results were applied to the Finnish Emergency Dispersion Modelling System (SILAM), which was then used to analyze pollen transport to Finland during spring time in 2002–2004. Solutions of the inverse problems (source apportionment) showed that the main source areas, from which the birch flowering can affect Finnish territory, are the Baltic States, Russia, Germany, Poland, and Sweden—depending on the particular meteorological situation. Actual forecasting of pollen dispersion required a birch forest map of Europe and a unified European model for birch flowering, both of which were nonexistent before this study. A map was compiled from the national forest inventories of Western Europe and satellite images of broadleaf forests. The flowering model was based on the mean climatological dates for the onset of birch forests rather than conditions of any specific year. Utilization of probability forecasting somewhat alleviated the problem, but the development of a European-wide flowering model remains the main obstacle for real-time forecasting of large-scale pollen distribution.     

A satellite-based map of onset of birch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula</Emphasis>) flowering in Norway

Birch (Betula pubescens L.) is by far the most common deciduous tree in Norway and birch forests define the forest line both northwards and upwards. Because of its mountainous topography, long fjords, and long length from north to south, Norway is climatically and ecologically very diverse. Therefore, developing pollen forecasts in Norway is a challenging task. In this study we use MODIS-NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) satellite data with 250 m spatial resolution and 16-days time resolution for the period 2000–2007, and birch pollen counts from ten Burkad traps distributed throughout Norway, to characterize the onset of birch flowering in Norway. Four of the seven trap stations with long-term series show significant values at the 5% level or better between the MODIS-NDVI defined onset and the date when the annual accumulated birch pollen sum reaches 2.5% of the annual total. A map of Norway that shows the eight-year mean (2000–2007) onset of birch flowering was produced. It reveals large differences in the timing of the onset of birch flowering along the north–south and altitude gradients. The map provides useful general information that can be utilized by the Norwegian pollen forecast service. This study shows that remote sensing is a useful tool for not only characterizing the onset of the birch pollen season but also revealing regional differences not easily detected by pollen stations alone.     

A numerical model of birch pollen emission and dispersion in the atmosphere. Model evaluation and sensitivity analysis

An evaluation of performance of the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) in application to birch pollen dispersion is presented. The system is described in a companion paper whereas the current study evaluates the model sensitivity to details of the pollen emission module parameterisation and to the meteorological input data. The most important parameters are highlighted. The reference year considered for the analysis is 2006. It is shown that the model is capable of predicting about two-thirds of allergenic alerts, with the odds ratio exceeding 12 for the best setup. Several other statistics corroborate with these estimations. Low-pollen concentration days are also predicted correctly in more than two-thirds of cases. The model experiences certain difficulties only with intermediate pollen concentrations. It is demonstrated that the most important input parameter is the near-surface temperature, the bias of which can easily jeopardise the results. The model sensitivity to random fluctuations of temperature is much lower. Other parameters important at various stages of pollen development, release, and dispersion are precipitation and ambient humidity, as well as wind direction.     

Pollen season and climate: Is the timing of birch pollen release in the UK approaching its limit?

In light of heightened interest in the response of pollen phenology to temperature, we investigated recent changes to the onset of Betula (birch) pollen seasons in central and southern England, including a test of predicted advancement of the Betula pollen season for London. We calculated onset of birch pollen seasons using daily airborne pollen data obtained at London, Plymouth and Worcester, determined trends in the start of the pollen season and compared timing of the birch pollen season with observed temperature patterns for the period 1995–2010. We found no overall change in the onset of birch pollen in the study period although there was evidence that the response to temperature was nonlinear and that a lower asymptotic start of the pollen season may exist. The start of the birch pollen season was strongly correlated with March mean temperature. These results reinforce previous findings showing that the timing of the birch pollen season in the UK is particularly sensitive to spring temperatures. The climate relationship shown here persists over both longer decadal-scale trends and shorter, seasonal trends as well as during periods of ‘sign-switching’ when cooler spring temperatures result in later start dates. These attributes, combined with the wide geographical coverage of airborne pollen monitoring sites, some with records extending back several decades, provide a powerful tool for the detection of climate change impacts, although local site factors and the requirement for winter chilling may be confounding factors.     

Variations and trends of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula</Emphasis> pollen seasons in Moscow (Russia) in relation to meteorological parameters

This study investigates possible links of meteorological data and the start date, end date, duration, date of peak, peak value and Seasonal Pollen Index (SPI) of birch pollen seasons recorded in Moscow, Russia, during 1993–2015. Pollen data were collected by a volumetric spore trap. Correlation analysis was used to study relationships between various parameters of pollen seasons. Simple linear regression analysis was conducted to investigate trends over time; multiple stepwise regression analysis was used to describe SPI fluctuations as a function of seasonal or monthly climatic parameters. Air temperatures increased significantly during the study period, but no effect on the timing of the birch pollen season was found. Only the severity of the season showed significant changes that can be considered as a consequence of global warming. Rainfall in May and June of the year preceding flowering, total rainfall in the 40-day pre-season period and average temperature during the pollination were shown to be the most important parameters affecting birch pollen concentrations.     

Relationship between pollen emission and fruit production in olive (Olea europaea L.)

Aerobiological data of pollen emission concentrations is used to predict fruit production. The principal aim of this work was to study the relationship between pollen emission patterns, emission homogeneity and fruit production in olive (Olea europaea L.). Data of daily pollen concentrations in the atmosphere during the flowering period, collected over a 20‐year period in Perugia (Central Italy), and the corresponding fruit production data were analysed. Correlation and regression analyses on the partial pollen amounts (subdivisions of the whole flowering period), their statistical variability (expressed as coefficients of variation of the daily pollen concentration), and the production values in the different years demonstrate that pollen emission, during the seven to ten day period immediately preceding the maximum pollen emission day, appears to be most closely related to fruit production. Moreover, the pollen emission homogeneity (minimal variability in daily pollen concentrations) during the “critical” flowering period is very important for fertilization.     

Sources,impact and exchange of early-spring birch pollen in the Moscow region and Finland

The paper presents an assessment of birch pollen seasons in Finland and Russia. The re-analysis covered the period from 1994 to 2005 and was focused on suspected long-range transport events that were recorded both in Moscow and at several Finnish sites. In order to trace the origin of airborne pollen before the onset of local pollination, we used both aerobiological and phenological observations combined with forward and adjoint (inverse) dispersion model simulations. It is shown that, although the Moscow region is surrounded by extensive birch forests, it still receives substantial amounts of foreign pollen before local pollination. In the Moscow region, the sources of long-range-transported pollen are in the south and south-west, sometimes even in the east. In Finland, there are frequently cases, before the local flowering season, in which Finnish territory receives Russian pollen; however in the opposite direction, from Finland to the Moscow region, no transport episodes were unequivocally registered. Analysis of the end of the seasons was more problematic, due to contributions to pollen observations from local sources; this results in difficulties in the reliable identification of the long-range transport episodes. Apart from its short-term effects on the pollen seasons, long-range transport can have substantial impacts on the exchange of genetic material within Europe. A quick atmospheric pathway for gene transport can be important for adaptation of plants to a changing climate.     

Modelling analysis of source regions of long-range transported birch pollen that influences allergenic seasons in Lithuania

This study analyses the spatial and temporal distribution of regional and long-range transported birch (Betula L.) pollen in Lithuania and the neighbouring countries. The potential long-range transport cases of birch pollen in Lithuania were analysed for the whole period of available observations, 2004–2007. The birch pollen was recorded at three measurement stations in Lithuania by using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps. The phenological observations in Lithuania were also used for the detection of potential long-range transport-induced episodes. Two variants of the regional and continental scale atmospheric dispersion model SILAM (Lagrangian and Eulerian) in an adjoint mode (used for inverse dispersion modelling and data assimilation), and the trajectory model HYSPLIT were employed to evaluate the source origins of the observed pollen. During four seasons in 2004–2007, we found in total 24 cases, during which remarkable pollen concentrations were recorded before the local flowering season. According to modelling, most of these were originated from the sources outside Lithuania: Latvia, southern Sweden, Denmark, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova, possibly, also coastal regions of Germany and Poland. Two episodes were attributed to local early-flowering birch trees. The spatial and temporal patterns of the long-range transport of early pollen to Lithuania were found out to be highly variable; the predicted source regions for the cases considered were similar only for some dates in 2004 and 2006. During the analysed period, we found both cases, in which the predictions of the SILAM model variants and those of the HYSPLIT model were similar, and cases, in which there were substantial differences. In general, for complicated atmospheric circulation patterns the model predictions can be drastically different, with a tendency of trajectory model to fail reproducing the key episode features.     

Long-distance transport ofBetula pollen grains and allergic symptoms

Summary An example of the potential importance of air masses as carriers of aero-allergens from distant source areas is provided. Considerable amount ofBetula pollen is relatively often transported to Fennoscandia before the local birch flowering period, mainly by southeastern air masses from eastern part of central Europe. Although the distance and the transport time in some cases can be extensive, the pollen grains seem to cause allergic reactions among sensitive persons.A comparison between the clinical results andBetula pollen counts from the time before the local flowering season in Stockholm in 1989 is presented.     

Airborne birch pollen in Neuchâtel (Switzerland): onset, peak and daily patterns

An accurate forecast of the starting point of thebirch pollen season in Neuchâtel can be made byadding the positive daily average air temperature fromFebruary 1st onward until the figure 270 is reached.At this point, the birch trees are ready to bloom.After that, the daily average temperature has toexceed 10 °C to allow pollen release.Today, the birch pollen season starts some 19 daysearlier in the year than in the 1980's, a consequenceof a recent climate change.The daily patterns of airborne birch pollen isirregular. Moreover, pollen concentrations frequentlyexceed the threshold of the appearance of allergicsymptoms, except during rainfall. Therefore, the onlybehavioral recommendation that can be given to peopleallergic to birch pollen is to shorten as much aspossible the contact with outdoor air during the mainbirch pollen season.     

Statistical modeling,forecasting and time series analysis of birch phenology in Montreal,Canada

The aim of this study was to analyse birch pollen time series observed in Montreal (Canada) in order to understand the link between inter-annual variability of phenology and environmental factors and to build predictive models for the upcoming pollen season. Modeling phenology is challenging, especially in Canada, where phenological observations are rare. Nevertheless, understanding phenology is required for scientific applications (e.g. inputs to numerical models of pollen dispersion) but also to help allergy sufferers to better prepare their medication and avoidance strategies before the start of the pollen season. We used multivariate statistical regression to analyse and predict phenology. The predictors were drawn from a large basin (over 60) of potential environmental predictors including meteorological data and global climatic indices such NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation index) and ENSO/MEI (Multivariate Enso Index). Results of this paper are summarized as follows: (1) an accurate forecast for the upcoming season starting date of the birch pollen season was obtained (showing low bias and total forecast error of about 4 days in Montreal), (2) NAO and ENSO/MEI indices were found to be well correlated (i.e. 44% of the variance explained) with birch phenology, (3) a long-term trend of 2.6 days per decade (p < 0.1) towards longer season duration was found for the length of the birch pollen season in Montreal. Finally, perturbations of the quasi-biennial cycle of birch were observed in the pollen data during the pollen season following the Great Ice Storm of 1998 which affected south-eastern Canada.     

A comparative study of airborne pollen concentrations of three allergenic types

Airborne concentrations of pollen from Betula (birch), Poaceae (grasses) and Artemisia (mugwort) are compared during a seven year period (90–96) with respect to both quantitative and seasonal aspects, at three different sampling sites, one in Estonia (Tartu) and two in Sweden (Stockholm and Roma on the island of Gotland). All three taxa occur in the region and are well‐known causes of allergic sensitisation. The annual total and peak values of birch, grass and mugwort pollen were found to be much higher in Tartu than in Stockholm and Roma. Both the birch and the grass pollen seasons ended later in Stockholm than in Roma and Tartu. The mugwort flowering season always began earlier in Stockholm than at the other sites, and more days elapsed between start day and peak day in Stockholm than in Tartu.     

Variations and trends of birch pollen seasons during 15 years (1996–2010) in relation to weather conditions in Poznań (western Poland)

Birch (Betula) pollen seasons were examined in relation to meteorological conditions in Poznań (1996–2010). Birch pollen grains were collected using a volumetric spore trap. An alternate biennial cycle of birch pollen season intensity was noticed in Poznań. The main factors influencing birch pollen season intensity were average daily minimum temperatures during the second fortnight of May and the month of June one year before pollination as well as the intensity of the pollen season of the previous year. Most of the pollen grains are recorded during the first week of the season; the number of pollen grains recorded at this time is positively correlated with mean maximum temperature and negatively correlated with daily rainfall. The significant effect of rainfall in reducing the season pollen index was noticed only during weak pollen seasons (season pollen index <?mean). In addition, mean daily maximum temperature during the first two weeks of the birch pollen season markedly influences its duration. No significant trends in duration and intensity of the pollen season were recorded, however, a slight tendency towards early pollination was observed (?0.4 days/year, p?=?0.310).     

Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States

Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994–2000 and 2001–2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1–2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6 %–248 %. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.