The Impact of the February 2012 Cold Spell on Health in Italy Using Surveillance Data

In February 2012 Italy was hit by an exceptional cold spell with extremely low temperatures and heavy snowfall. The aim of this work is to estimate the impact of the cold spell on health in the Italian cities using data from the rapid surveillance systems. In Italy, a national mortality surveillance system has been operational since 2004 in 34 cities for the rapid monitoring of daily mortality. Data from this system were used to evaluate the impact of the February 2012 cold spell on mortality shortly after the occurrence of the event. Furthermore, a cause-specific analysis was conducted in Roma using the Regional Mortality Registry and the emergency visits (ER) surveillance system. Cold spell episodes were defined as days when mean temperatures were below the 10^th percentile of February distribution for more than three days. To estimate the impact of the cold spell, excess mortality was calculated as the difference between observed and daily expected values. An overall 1578 (+25%) excess deaths among the 75+ age group was recorded in the 14 cities that registered a cold spell in February 2012. A statistically significant excess in mortality was observed in several cities ranging from +22% in Bologna to +58% in Torino. Cause-specific analysis conducted in Roma showed a statistically significant excess in mortality among the 75+ age group for respiratory disease (+64%), COPD (+57%), cardiovascular disease +20% ischemic heart disease (14%) and other heart disease (+33%). Similar results were observed for ER visits. Surveillance systems need to become are a key component of prevention plans as they can help improve public health response and are a valid data source to rapidly quantify the impact on health. Cold-related mortality is still an important issue and should not be underestimated by public health Authorities.     

Mortality risk in a historical cohort of nuclear power plant workers in Germany: results from a second follow-up

Possible health effects of low and protracted doses of ionizing radiation are relevant for persons who are exposed to an occupational context like nuclear industry workers. A historical cohort study was therefore conducted to examine mortality risks following occupational radiation exposure among 4,844 German nuclear power plant workers. This cohort included workers from ten nuclear power plants with an observational period from 1991 until 1997. The results of an enlarged cohort with 8,972 workers from all 17 nuclear power plants in West Germany are now available. During the extended follow-up period from 1991 to 2008, a total of 310 deaths among men were observed. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) from all causes of deaths was estimated at 0.50 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.45–0.56]. A total of 126 deaths due to cancer occurred (SMR = 0.65; 95 % CI 0.51–0.82) and seven deaths due to leukemia (SMR = 1.23; 95 % CI 0.42–2.84). Overall, a reduced mortality compared to the general population of West Germany was observed indicating a healthy worker effect. In the dose–response analysis, no statistically significant risk due to ionizing radiation was seen. The hazard ratio (HR/mSv) for leukemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia was estimated at 1.004 (95 % CI 0.997–1.011). In conclusion, the cohort is small and made up of young workers, most of whom were still employed at the end of the observational period in 2008. Results of the external analysis are difficult to interpret as influenced by a healthy worker effect. In the internal analysis, no excess of risk due to radiation was detected.     

Short-term effects of meteorological factors on children hand,foot and mouth disease in Guangzhou,China

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious viral illness that commonly affects infants and children. The underlying risk factors have not yet been systematically examined. This study analyzed the short-term effects of meteorological factors on children HFMD in Guangzhou, China. Daily count of HFMD among children younger than 15 years and meteorological variables from 2009 to 2011 were collected to construct the time series. A generalized additive model was applied to estimate the effects of meteorological factors on HFMD occurrence, after adjusting for long-term trend, seasonal trend, day of week, and public holidays. A negative association between temperature and children HFMD occurrence was observed at lag days 1–3, with the relative risk (RR) for a 1 °C increase on lag day 2 being 0.983 (95 % confidence intervals (CI) 0.977 to 0.989); positive effect was found for temperature at lag days 5–9, with the highest effect at lag day 6 (RR?=?1.014, 95 % CI 1.006 to 1.023). Higher humidity was associated with increased HFMD at lag days 3–10, with the highest effect at lag day 8 (RR?=?1.009 for 1 % increase in relative humidity, 95 % CI 1.007 to 1.010). And we also observed significant positive effect for rainfall at lag days 4 and 8 (RR?=?1.001, 95 % CI 1.000 to 1.002) for 1-mm increase. Subgroup analyses showed that the positive effects of temperature were more pronounced among younger children. This study suggests that meteorological factors might be important predictors of children HFMD occurrence in Guangzhou.     

The association of extreme temperatures and the incidence of tuberculosis in Japan

Seasonal variation in the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) has been widely assumed. However, few studies have investigated the association between extreme temperatures and the incidence of TB. We collected data on cases of TB and mean temperature in Fukuoka, Japan for 2008–2012 and used time-series analyses to assess the possible relationship of extreme temperatures with TB incident cases, adjusting for seasonal and interannual variation. Our analysis revealed that the occurrence of extreme heat temperature events resulted in a significant increase in the number of TB cases (relative risk (RR) 1.20, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.43). We also found that the occurrence of extreme cold temperature events resulted in a significant increase in the number of TB cases (RR 1.23, 95 % CI 1.05–1.45). Sex and age did not modify the effect of either heat or cold extremes. Our study provides quantitative evidence that the number of TB cases increased significantly with extreme heat and cold temperatures. The results may help public health officials predict extreme temperature-related TB incidence and prepare for the implementation of preventive public health interventions.     

Short-term effect of dust storms on the risk of mortality due to respiratory, cardiovascular and all-causes in Kuwait

This study aimed to investigate the impact of dust storms on short-term mortality in Kuwait. We analyzed respiratory and cardiovascular mortality as well as all-cause mortality in relation to dust storm events over a 5-year study period, using data obtained through a population-based retrospective ecological time series study. Dust storm days were identified when the national daily average of PM₁₀ exceeded 200 μg/m³. Generalized additive models with Poisson link were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of age-stratified daily mortality associated with dust events, after adjusting for potential confounders including weather variables and long-term trends. There was no significant association between dust storm events and same-day respiratory mortality (RR = 0.96; 95 %CI 0.88–1.04), cardiovascular mortality (RR = 0.98; 95 %CI 0.96–1.012) or all-cause mortality (RR = 0.99; 95 %CI 0.97–1.00). Overall our findings suggest that local dust, that most likely originates from crustal materials, has little impact on short-term respiratory, cardiovascular or all-cause mortality.     

Association Between Circulating Copeptin Level and Mortality Risk in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage: a Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis

Copeptin has been identified as a biomarker of disease severity and is associated with mortality risk in several common diseases. This study sought to determine the association between circulating copeptin level and mortality risk in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. PubMed, Web of Science, and Wanfang Medicine Database were searched for studies assessing the association between circulating copeptin level and mortality risk in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. The pooled hazard ratio (HR) of mortality was calculated and presented with 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI). Data from 1332 intracerebral hemorrhage patients were derived from 9 studies. Meta-analysis showed that intracerebral hemorrhage patients with poor prognosis had much higher copeptin levels than those survivors (standardized mean difference?=?1.68, 95 % CI 1.26–2.11, P?<?0.00001). Meta-analysis of 8 studies with HRs showed that high circulating copeptin level was associated with higher risk of mortality in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (HR?=?2.42, 95 % CI 1.60–3.65, P?<?0.0001). Meta-analysis of 6 studies with adjusted HRs showed that high circulating copeptin level was independently associated with higher risk of mortality in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (HR?=?1.67, 95 % CI 1.26–2.22, P?=?0.0003). Our study suggests that there is an obvious association between circulating copeptin level and mortality in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. High circulating copeptin level is independently associated with higher risk of mortality in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage.     

Excess mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave in Porto, Portugal

The purpose of this study was to understand the effects of the July 2006 heat wave through the use of the heat index, in mortality (all causes) and morbidity (all causes, respiratory and circulatory diseases) in general, and in people over 74 years and by gender, in Porto. In this paper, the Poisson generalized additive regression model was used to estimate the impact of apparent temperature (heat index) and daily mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave. Daily mortality, morbidity and heat index were correlated with lags of apparent temperature up to 7 days using Pearson correlation. For a 1°C increase in mean apparent temperature we observed a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 1.7–3.6 %) increase in mortality (all cause), a 1.7 % (95 % CI: 0.6–2.9 %) increase in respiratory morbidity, a 2.2 % (95 % CI: 0.4–4.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 5.4 % (95%CI: 1.1–6.6 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity, and a 7.5 % (95 % CI: 1.3–14.1 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity in women, for the entire population. For people?≥?75 years, our results showed a 3.3 % increase (95 % CI: 1.7–5.0 %) in respiratory morbidity, a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 0.4–5.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in men, a 3.9 % (95 %CI: 1.6–6.3 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 7.0 % (95 % CI: 1.1–13.2 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and a 9.0 % (95 % CI: 0.3–18.5 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in women. The use of heat index in a Mediterranean tempered climate enabled the identification of the effects of the July 2006 heat wave in mortality due to all causes and in respiratory morbidity of the general population, as well as in respiratory morbidity of individuals with more than 74 years of age.     

Two Novel Susceptibility SNPs for Ischemic Stroke Using Exome Sequencing in Chinese Han Population

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of ischemic stroke (IS) have been performed on several cohorts of Caucasian or African population and Japanese, resulting in somewhat inconsistent conclusion. We aimed to identify susceptibility loci for IS by exome sequencing in a Chinese Han population. Exome sequencing was used to screen susceptibility loci among 100 cases and 100 matched controls. Significant SNPs from the first stage were verified in up to 3,554 participants from three hospital-based case–control studies. In the initial exome sequencing analysis, rs10489177 in c1orf156 gene located on chromosome 1q24 (p?<?1?×?10^?8) and rs17118 in XYLB gene located on chromosome 3p21 (p?<?1?×?10^?6) were found to be significantly associated with IS. In the following validation stage, significantly increased odds ratios were observed in individuals with rs10489177 GG (OR?=?2.02, 95 % CI?=?1.35–3.03) or rs17118 AA genotype (OR?=?1.50, 95 % CI?=?1.17–1.91). The rs10489177 GG genotype was associated with significantly increased risk for IS in individuals without hypertension (OR?=?2.78, 95 % CI?=?1.59–4.86) and in individuals without diabetes (OR?=?1.93, 95 % CI?=?1.27–2.94). In contrast, the rs17118 AA genotype may significantly increase the risk for IS, particularly for individuals with hypertension (OR?=?1.73, 95 % CI?=?1.08–2.78) and for individuals without diabetes (OR?=?1.52, 95 % CI?=?1.17–1.98) or non-smoker (OR?=?1.59, 95 % CI?=?1.16–2.19). Collectively, our study identified two novel loci (rs17118 and rs10489177) which were associated with an increased risk for IS in Chinese Han populations. Further studies are needed to confirm these associations in other populations and elucidate the biological mechanisms underlying the observed associations.     

Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA

Climate change will increase extreme heat-related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern USA. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36 km and 12 km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5° and 3.3° C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% confidence interval, CI: 2641–20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65 years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8767 (95% CI: 5030–12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36 km) and fine (12 km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data are still needed to inform more targeted interventions.     

Alzheimer’s Disease is an Important Risk Factor of Fractures: a Meta-analysis of Cohort Studies

The risk of fracture in individuals with Alzheimer’s disease had not been fully quantified. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies was performed to estimate the impact of Alzheimer’s disease on risk of fractures. Pubmed and Embase were searched for eligible cohort studies assessing the association between Alzheimer’s disease and risk of fractures. The overall relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs were calculated using a random-effects model to evaluate the association. Six cohort studies with a total of 137,986 participants were included into the meta-analysis. Meta-analysis of a total of six studies showed that Alzheimer’s disease was significantly associated with two-fold increased risk of fractures (RR?=?2.18, 95 % CI 1.64–2.90, P?<?0.001; I ²?=?91.4 %). Meta-regression analysis showed that type of fractures was a source of heterogeneity (P?=?0.003). Meta-analysis of five studies on hip fracture showed that Alzheimer’s disease was significantly associated with 2.5-fold increased risk of hip fracture (RR?=?2.52, 95 % CI 2.26–2.81, P?<?0.001; I ²?=?25.2 %). There was no risk of publication bias observed in the funnel plot. There is strong evidence that Alzheimer’s disease is a risk factor of hip fracture.     

Associations between chronotype,morbidity and mortality in the UK Biobank cohort

Later chronotype (i.e. evening preference) and later timing of sleep have been associated with greater morbidity, including higher rates of metabolic dysfunction and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, no one has examined whether chronotype is associated with mortality risk to date. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that being an evening type is associated with increased mortality in a large cohort study, the UK Biobank. Our analysis included 433 268 adults aged 38–73 at the time of enrolment and an average 6.5-year follow-up. The primary exposure was chronotype, as assessed through a single self-reported question-defining participants as definite morning types, moderate morning types, moderate evening types or definite evening types. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and mortality due to CVD. Prevalent disease was also compared among the chronotype groups. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, smoking, body mass index, sleep duration, socioeconomic status and comorbidities. Greater eveningness, particularly being a definite evening type, was significantly associated with a higher prevalence of all comorbidities. Comparing definite evening type to definite morning type, the associations were strongest for psychological disorders (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.86–2.02, p = < 0.001), followed by diabetes (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.24–1.36, p = < 0.001), neurological disorders (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.20–1.30, p = < 0.001), gastrointestinal/abdominal disorders (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.19–1.27, p = < 0.001) and respiratory disorders (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.18–1.26, p = < 0.001). The total number of deaths was 10 534, out of which 2127 were due to CVD. Greater eveningness, based on chronotype as an ordinal variable, was associated with a small increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.004–1.05, p = 0.017) and CVD mortality (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00–1.09, p = 0.06). Compared to definite morning types, definite evening types had significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02–1.18, p = 0.012). This first report of increased mortality in evening types is consistent with previous reports of increased levels of cardiometabolic risk factors in this group. Mortality risk in evening types may be due to behavioural, psychological and physiological risk factors, many of which may be attributable to chronic misalignment between internal physiological timing and externally imposed timing of work and social activities. These findings suggest the need for researching possible interventions aimed at either modifying circadian rhythms in individuals or at allowing evening types greater working hour flexibility.     

Increased Mortality During the 2010 Heat Wave in Harbin, China

In this study, we investigated the effect on daily mortality of a 2010 heat wave in the city of Harbin in northern China. We calculated mortality rate ratios (RRs) by comparing the number of deaths during the heat wave period (June 7th-11th, 2010) to the number of deaths in the reference period (June 8th-12th, 2009). During the heat wave period, an overall excess of 41?% in total mortality occurred in Harbin. The RR of total mortality was 1.41 (95?% CI 1.22-1.63). Analysis by categories also found dramatic increases in the number of deaths in different gender, age groups and places of death. The 2010 heat wave was a strong risk factor for mortality in Harbin. Public health efforts should be improved to address the potential adverse health effects of heat waves.     

Reductions in Cardiovascular,Cerebrovascular, and Respiratory Mortality following the National Irish Smoking Ban: Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Background

Previous studies have shown decreases in cardiovascular mortality following the implementation of comprehensive smoking bans. It is not known whether cerebrovascular or respiratory mortality decreases post-ban. On March 29, 2004, the Republic of Ireland became the first country in the world to implement a national workplace smoking ban. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of this policy on all-cause and cause-specific, non-trauma mortality.

Methods

A time-series epidemiologic assessment was conducted, utilizing Poisson regression to examine weekly age and gender-standardized rates for 215,878 non-trauma deaths in the Irish population, ages ≥35 years. The study period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2007, with a post-ban follow-up of 3.75 years. All models were adjusted for time trend, season, influenza, and smoking prevalence.

Results

Following ban implementation, an immediate 13% decrease in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76–0.99), a 26% reduction in ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63–0.88), a 32% reduction in stroke (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54–0.85), and a 38% reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.46–0.83) mortality was observed. Post-ban reductions in IHD, stroke, and COPD mortalities were seen in ages ≥65 years, but not in ages 35–64 years. COPD mortality reductions were found only in females (RR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.32–0.70). Post-ban annual trend reductions were not detected for any smoking-related causes of death. Unadjusted estimates indicate that 3,726 (95% CI: 2,305–4,629) smoking-related deaths were likely prevented post-ban. Mortality decreases were primarily due to reductions in passive smoking.

Conclusions

The national Irish smoking ban was associated with immediate reductions in early mortality. Importantly, post-ban risk differences did not change with a longer follow-up period. This study corroborates previous evidence for cardiovascular causes, and is the first to demonstrate reductions in cerebrovascular and respiratory causes.     

CHANGES IN WORKING TIME ARRANGEMENTS OVER TIME AS A CONSEQUENCE OF WORK-FAMILY CONFLICT

Existing longitudinal studies on the relationship between working time arrangements (WTA) and work-family conflict have mainly focused on the normal causal relationship, that is, the impact of WTA on work-family conflict over time. So far, however, the reversed relationship, that is, the effect of work-family conflict on adjustments in WTA over time, has hardly been studied. Because work-family conflict is highly prevalent in the working population, further insight in this reverse relationship is invaluable to gain insight into secondary selection processes. The aim of this study is to investigate whether work-family conflict is prospectively related to adjustments in work schedules, working hours, and overtime work, and to explore sex differences and different time lags in this relation. Data of the prospective Maastricht Cohort Study were used. To study the effect of work-family conflict on a change from shift- to day work over 32 months of follow-up, male three-shift (n?=?727), five-shift (n?=?932), and irregular-shift (n?=?451) workers were selected. To study effects of work-family conflict on reduction of working hours over 12 and 24 months of follow-up, respectively, only day workers (males and females) were selected, capturing 5809 full-time workers (≥36?h/wk) and 1387 part-time workers (<36?h/wk) at baseline. To examine effects of work-family conflict on refraining from overtime work over 12 months of follow-up, only day workers reporting frequent overtime work at baseline were selected (3145 full-time and 492 part-time workers). Cox regression analyses were performed with adjustments for age, educational level, and presence of a long-term illness. Work-family conflict was associated with a significantly increased risk of changing from shift- to day work over 32 months of follow-up in three-shift workers (relative risk [RR]?=?1.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19–2.63) but not in five-shift workers (RR?=?1.32, 95% CI 0.78–2.24) and irregular-shift workers (RR?=?0.81, 95% CI 0.50–1.31). Within day workers, work-family conflict among full-time workers was associated with a significantly increased risk of reducing working hours during 1 yr of follow-up in women (RR?=?2.80, 95% CI 1.42–5.54) but not men (RR?=?1.34, 95% CI 0.81–2.22). In part-time workers, work-family conflict was associated with a significantly increased risk of reducing working hours during 1 yr of follow-up both in women (RR?=?1.99, 95% CI 1.04–3.82) and men (RR?=?4.03, 95% CI 1.28–12.68). Whereas the effects of work-family conflict on a reduction of working hours somewhat decreased among female full-time workers after 2 yr of follow-up (RR?=?2.13, 95% CI 1.24–3.66), among male full-time workers the effects increased and reached statistical significance (RR?=?1.53, 95% CI 1.05–2.21). Work-family conflict was not significantly associated with refraining from overtime work over 1 yr of follow-up. This study shows that work-family conflict has important consequences in terms of adjustments in work schedules and working hours over time, with considerable sex differences. The study thereby clearly illustrates secondary selection processes both in shift- and day workers, with significant implications for labor force participation, emphasizing the need for prevention of work-family conflict (Author correspondence: Nicole.Jansen@epid.unimaas.nl).     

Elevated Serum and Cerebrospinal Fluid Free Fatty Acid Levels Are Associated with Unfavorable Functional Outcome in Subjects with Acute Ischemic Stroke

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) free fatty acid (FFA) levels in a cohort of patients with an acute ischemic stroke (AIS). In a prospective study, FFA levels were measured using an enzyme cycling method on admission in serum and CSF of 252 consecutive patients with AIS. The prognostic value of FFA to predict the functional outcome and mortality within 90-day was compared with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and with other known outcome predictors. Serum and CSF levels of FFA increased with increasing severity of stroke as defined by the NIHSS score (all P?<?0.001). Patients with an unfavorable outcomes and non-survivors had significantly increased FFA serum and CSF levels on admission (all P?<?0.0001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for common risk factors showed that serum FFA ≥0.71 mmol/L (third quarters) was an independent predictor of functional outcome (odds ratios (OR)?=?4.86; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 2.26–10.48) and mortality (OR?=?7.72; 95 % CI 3.01–21.48). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of serum FFA was 0.79 (95 % CI, 0.72–0.86) for functional outcome and 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.78–0.94) for mortality. Similarly, CSF FFA level also was an indicator for predicting of functional outcome and mortality. FFA levels in serum and CSF may serve as independent biomarkers in addition of the traditional methods for assessing the functional outcome and mortality of AIS.     

Elevated Serum Levels of CXC Chemokine Ligand-12 Are Associated with Unfavorable Functional Outcome and Mortality at 6-Month Follow-up in Chinese Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

The aim of this study was to examine whether the circulating CXC chemokine ligand-12 (CXCL12) level can predict a 6-month outcome in Chinese patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). In a prospective study, CXCL12 levels were measured on admission in the serum of 304 consecutive patients with AIS. The prognostic value of CXCL12 to predict the functional outcome and mortality within 1 year was compared with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and with other known outcome predictors. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of serum CXCL12 in predicting functional outcome and mortality. Patients with an unfavorable outcome and non-survivors had significantly increased CXCL12 levels on admission (P?<?0.0001 and P?<?0.0001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for common risk factors showed that CXCL12 (≥12.4 ng/mL; third quartile) was an independent predictor of functional outcome (odds ratio [OR]?=?8.81; 95 % confidence interval [CI] 4.92–24.79) and mortality (OR?=?10.15; 95 %CI 2.44–27.98). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of CXCL12 was 0.84 (95 % CI 0.76–0.92) for functional outcome and 0.87 (95 % CI 0.80–0.93) for mortality. Circulating CXCL12 serum levels at admission is a useful and complementary biomarker to predict functional outcome and mortality 6 months after acute ischemic stroke.     

Serum Procalcitonin Levels are Associated with Clinical Outcome in Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Procalcitonin (PCT) has emerged as a new prognostic inflammatory marker in a variety of diseases. This study aimed to evaluate whether PCT is associated with increased risk of unfavorable outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients. During January 2015–December 2016, we conducted a prospective cohort investigation involved 251 primary ICH patients who were admitted within 24 h after the onset of symptoms. We assessed serum PCT levels for all patients at admission. The functional outcome after 3 months was evaluated by modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and dichotomized as favorable (mRS 0–2) and unfavorable (mRS 3–6). The independent risk factors for unfavorable outcome and mortality after 3 months were examined by binary logistic regression. Of 251 ICH patients, the median PCT concentration was 0.053 µg/L (interquartile range 0.035–0.078 µg/L). Unfavorable outcome and mortality at 3 months were observed in 161 (64.1%) and 51 (20.3%) patients, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders, patients with PCT levels in the top quartile (>0.078 ug/L), compared with the lowest quartile (<0.035 μg/L) were more likely to have a higher risk of poor functional outcome [odds ratio (OR) 7.341; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.770–21.114; P = 0.001] and mortality (OR 7.483; 95% CI 1.871–24.458, P = 0.006). Furthermore, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of PCT showed 0.701 (95% CI 0.635–0.767) for worse functional prognosis, and 0.652 (95% CI 0.569–0.735) for mortality. This study demonstrated that elevated PCT levels at admission were independently associated with unfavorable clinical outcome in ICH patients.     

Do Cadmium, Lead, and Aluminum in Drinking Water Increase the Risk of Hip Fractures? A NOREPOS Study

The aim of this study was to investigate relations between cadmium, lead, and aluminum in municipality drinking water and the incidence of hip fractures in the Norwegian population. A trace metals survey in 566 waterworks was linked geographically to hip fractures from hospitals throughout the country (1994–2000). In all those supplied from these waterworks, 5,438 men and 13,629 women aged 50–85 years suffered a hip fracture. Poisson regression models were fitted, adjusting for age, region of residence, urbanization, and type of water source as well as other possibly bone-related water quality factors. Effect modification by background variables and interactions between water quality factors were examined (correcting for false discovery rate). Men exposed to a relatively high concentration of cadmium (IRR?=?1.10; 95 % CI 1.01, 1.20) had an increased risk of fracture. The association between relatively high lead and hip fracture risk was significant in the oldest age group (66–85 years) for both men (IRR?=?1.11; 95 % CI 1.02, 1.21) and women (IRR?=?1.10; 95 % CI 1.04, 1.16). Effect modification by degree of urbanization on hip fracture risk in men was also found for all three metals: cadmium, lead, and aluminum. In summary, a relatively high concentration of cadmium, lead, and aluminum measured in drinking water increased the risk of hip fractures, but the associations depended on gender, age, and urbanization degree. This study could help in elucidating the complex effects on bone health by risk factors found in the environment.