Saharan Dust Impacts on Air Quality: What Are the Potential Health Risks in West Africa?

Despite the proximity of the Sahara, very few studies about dust impact on air quality and human health have been conducted in West Africa. The lack of data is a major constraint on our understanding of the impacts on human health in this area. We analyzed PM₁₀ concentrations and horizontal visibility recorded in four West African stations. The pollution levels often exceed the standards defined by many countries/regulatory authorities and have been associated with serious health risks outside Africa. Over the Sahelian stations, 45.6% of the days between November 2006 and March 2007 were likely to impact human health and the studied Sudanian population was exposed to potential health effects every 5 days.     

Yellow Wagtail Motacilla flava migration from West Africa to Europe: pointers towards a conservation strategy for migrants on passage

The biology of one passerine migrant, the Yellow Wagtail Motacilla flava, is examined in order to identify factors which need to be considered when attempting to conserve migrants on passage. The distribution of Yellow Wagtails in West Africa, prior to northward (spring) migration, is affected by food supplies and by different racial and sexual responses to environmental factors. Consequently, each breeding population relies on a wide range of sites, but those occupied towards the end of the dry season and ones used as stepping-off points for migration may be particularly vital.
Energetic considerations point towards a non-stop trans-Saharan flight being used rather than a series of short flights with resting stops in the desert. However, adverse conditions during migration could make stop-overs unavoidable. The most direct routes between wintering and breeding areas are preferred, and the initial desert crossing is accomplished at a faster pace than later stages of the journey.
Yellow Wagtails emigrate from West Africa in a sequence related to the onset of spring on their breeding sites, rather than in response to rainfall in Africa: moult, fattening and emigration are probably endogenously controlled. However, competition from African resident birds may also be an important factor affecting the timing of migration.
Races breeding in southern Europe are most likely to be adversely affected by degradation of the Sahel. Empirical evidence suggests that conditions on the wintering grounds are more likely to regulate population size than conditions experienced on migration, but more detailed studies are needed in Africa before sound conservation strategies can be designed.     

Ecological niche and geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa

Monkeypox virus, a zoonotic member of the genus Orthopoxviridae, can cause a severe, smallpox-like illness in humans. Monkeypox virus is thought to be endemic to forested areas of western and Central Africa. Considerably more is known about human monkeypox disease occurrence than about natural sylvatic cycles of this virus in non-human animal hosts. We use human monkeypox case data from Africa for 1970-2003 in an ecological niche modeling framework to construct predictive models of the ecological requirements and geographic distribution of monkeypox virus across West and Central Africa. Tests of internal predictive ability using different subsets of input data show the model to be highly robust and suggest that the distinct phylogenetic lineages of monkeypox in West Africa and Central Africa occupy similar ecological niches. High mean annual precipitation and low elevations were shown to be highly correlated with human monkeypox disease occurrence. The synthetic picture of the potential geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa resulting from this study should support ongoing epidemiologic and ecological studies, as well as help to guide public health intervention strategies to areas at highest risk for human monkeypox.     

The size of savannah Africa: a lion’s (Panthera leo) view

We define African savannahs as being those areas that receive between 300 and 1,500 mm of rain annually. This broad definition encompasses a variety of habitats. Thus defined, savannahs comprise 13.5 million km² and encompass most of the present range of the African lion (Panthera leo). Dense human populations and extensive conversion of land to human use preclude use by lions. Using high-resolution satellite imagery and human population density data we define lion areas, places that likely have resident lion populations. In 1960, 11.9 million km² of these savannahs had fewer than 25 people per km². The comparable area shrank to 9.7 million km² by 2000. Areas of savannah Africa with few people have shrunk considerably in the last 50 years and human population projections suggest they will likely shrink significantly in the next 40. The current extent of free-ranging lion populations is 3.4 million km² or about 25 % of savannah area. Habitats across this area are fragmented; all available data indicate that between 32,000 and 35,000 free-ranging lions live in 67 lion areas. Although these numbers are similar to previous estimates, they are geographically more comprehensive. There is abundant evidence of widespread declines and local extinctions. Under the criteria we outline, ten lion areas qualify as lion strongholds: four in East Africa and six in Southern Africa. Approximately 24,000 lions are in strongholds, with an additional 4,000 in potential ones. However, over 6,000 lions are in populations of doubtful long-term viability. Lion populations in West and Central Africa are acutely threatened with many recent, local extinctions even in nominally protected areas.     

Bridging epidemiology and model organisms to increase understanding of endocrine disrupting chemicals and human health effects

Concerning temporal trends in human reproductive health has prompted concern about the role of environmentally mediated risk factors. The population is exposed to chemicals present in air, water, food and in a variety of consumer and personal care products, subsequently multiple chemicals are found human populations around the globe. Recent reviews find that endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) can adversely affect reproductive and developmental health. However, there are still many knowledge gaps. This paper reviews some of the key scientific concepts relevant to integrating information from human epidemiologic and model organisms to understand the relationship between EDC exposure and adverse human health effects. Additionally, areas of new insights which influence the interpretation of the science are briefly reviewed, including: enhanced understanding of toxicity pathways; importance of timing of exposure; contribution of multiple chemical exposures; and low dose effects. Two cases are presented, thyroid disrupting chemicals and anti-androgens chemicals, which illustrate how our knowledge of the relationship between EDCs and adverse human health effects is strengthened and data gaps reduced when we integrate findings from animal and human studies.     

Dryland Salinity and Ecosystem Distress Syndrome: Human Health Implications

Clearing of native vegetation for agriculture has left 1.047 million hectares of southwest Western Australia affected by dryland salinity, and this area may expand up to a further 1.7–3.4 million hectares if trends continue. Ecosystems in saline-affected regions display many of the classic characteristics of Ecosystem Distress Syndrome, one outcome of which has not yet been investigated in relation to dryland salinity: adverse human health implications. This article seeks to review existing information and identify potential adverse human health effects. Three key potential impacts on human health resulting from dryland salinity are identified: wind-borne dust and respiratory health; altered ecology of the mosquito-borne disease Ross River virus; and mental health consequences of salinity-induced environmental degradation. Given the predicted increase in extent and severity of dryland salinity over coming decades, adverse outcomes of salinity are likely to be further exacerbated, including those related to human health. There is a clear need to investigate the issues discussed in this review and also to identify other potential adverse health effects of dryland salinity. Investigations must be multidisciplinary to sufficiently examine the broad scope of these issues. The relationship between human health and salinity may also be relevant beyond Australia in other countries where secondary soil salinization is occurring.     

The Foraging Ecology of the Endangered Cape Verde Shearwater,a Sentinel Species for Marine Conservation off West Africa

Large Marine Ecosystems such as the Canary Current system off West Africa sustains high abundance of small pelagic prey, which attracts marine predators. Seabirds are top predators often used as biodiversity surrogates and sentinel species of the marine ecosystem health, thus frequently informing marine conservation planning. This study presents the first data on the spatial (GPS-loggers) and trophic (stable isotope analysis) ecology of a tropical seabird—the endangered Cape Verde shearwater Calonectris edwardsii–during both the incubation and the chick-rearing periods of two consecutive years. This information was related with marine environmental predictors (species distribution models), existent areas of conservation concern for seabirds (i.e. marine Important Bird Areas; marine IBAs) and threats to the marine environment in the West African areas heavily used by the shearwaters. There was an apparent inter-annual consistency on the spatial, foraging and trophic ecology of Cape Verde shearwater, but a strong alteration on the foraging strategies of adult breeders among breeding phases (i.e. from incubation to chick-rearing). During incubation, birds mostly targeted a discrete region off West Africa, known by its enhanced productivity profile and thus also highly exploited by international industrial fishery fleets. When chick-rearing, adults exploited the comparatively less productive tropical environment within the islands of Cape Verde, at relatively close distance from their breeding colony. The species enlarged its trophic niche and increased the trophic level of their prey from incubation to chick-rearing, likely to provision their chicks with a more diversified and better quality diet. There was a high overlap between the Cape Verde shearwaters foraging areas with those of European shearwater species that overwinter in this area and known areas of megafauna bycatch off West Africa, but very little overlap with existing Marine Important Bird Areas. Further investigation on the potential nefarious effects of fisheries on seabird communities exploiting the Canary Current system off West Africa is needed. Such negative effects could be alleviated or even dissipated if the ‘fisheries-conservation hotspots’ identified for the region, would be legislated as Marine Protected Areas.     

Viability and potential for immigration of airborne bacteria from Africa that reach high mountain lakes in Europe

We have analysed the diversity of the bacteria, which grow after addition of concentrated airborne particles and desert dust in different microcosms combinations with water samples from oligotrophic alpine lakes. We used, on the one hand, airborne bacteria transported by an African dust plume and collected in a high mountain area in the central Pyrenees (Spain). On the other hand, we collected desert dust in Mauritania ( c . 3000 km distance, and a few days estimated airborne journey), a known source region for dust storms in West Africa, which originates many of the dust plumes landing on Europe. In all the dust-amended treatments we consistently observed bacterial growth of common phyla usually found in freshwater ecosystems, i.e. Alpha -, Beta - and Gammaproteobacteria , Actinobacteria , and a few Bacteroidetes , but with different composition based on lake water pretreatment and dust type. Overall, we tentatively split the bacterial community in (i) typical freshwater non-airborne bacteria, (ii) cosmopolitan long-distance airborne bacteria, (iii) non-freshwater low-distance airborne bacteria, (iv) non-freshwater long-distance airborne soil bacteria and (v) freshwater non-soil airborne bacteria. We identified viable long-distance airborne bacteria as immigrants in alpine lakes (e.g. Sphingomonas -like) but also viable putative airborne pathogens with the potential to grow in remote alpine areas ( Acinetobacter -like and Arthrobacter -like). Generation of atmospheric aerosols and remote dust deposition is a global process, largely enhanced by perturbations linked to the global change, and high mountain lakes are very convenient worldwide model systems for monitoring global-scale bacterial dispersion and pathogens entries in remote pristine environments.     

Diversity and species composition of West African ungulate assemblages: effects of fire,climate and soil

Aim Anthropogenic fires are a major component of the ecology of rangelands throughout the world. To assess the effects of these fires on the diversity patterns of herbivores, we related gradients in fire occurrence, climate and soil fertility to patterns in alpha and beta diversity of African ungulates. Location West Africa. Methods We used a survey‐based approach for ungulates in 37 protected areas in desert, savanna and rain forest habitats throughout West Africa, combined with satellite images of fire occurrence and digital maps of actual evapotranspiration and soil fertility. Alpha diversity was related to the environmental variables using conventional and spatial regression models. We investigated beta diversity using partial Mantel tests and ordination techniques, and by partitioning the variance in assemblage composition into environmental and spatial components. Results The species richness of grazers showed a quadratic relationship with actual evapotranspiration, whereas that of browsers and frugivores showed a linear relationship. However, in the multiple regression models fire occurrence was the only variable that significantly correlated with the species richness of grazers. Soil fertility was weakly related to overall beta diversity and the species richness of browsers, but was non‐significant in the multiple regression models. Fire occurrence was the most important variable explaining species composition of the overall species set and of grazers, whereas the assemblage composition of browsers and frugivores was explained mostly by actual evapotranspiration. Main conclusions In contrast to previous studies, our analyses show that moisture and nutrients alone fail to adequately predict the diversity patterns of grazing ungulates. Rather, the species richness and assemblage composition of grazers are largely governed by anthropogenic fires that modify the quality and structure of the grass sward. Diversity patterns of browsers and frugivores are markedly different from grazers and depend mainly on the availability of moisture, which is positively correlated with the availability of foliage and fruits. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating major human‐induced disturbances or habitat alterations into analyses of diversity patterns.     

Saharan Dust Deposition May Affect Phytoplankton Growth in the Mediterranean Sea at Ecological Time Scales

The surface waters of the Mediterranean Sea are extremely poor in the nutrients necessary for plankton growth. At the same time, the Mediterranean Sea borders with the largest and most active desert areas in the world and the atmosphere over the basin is subject to frequent injections of mineral dust particles. We describe statistical correlations between dust deposition over the Mediterranean Sea and surface chlorophyll concentrations at ecological time scales. Aerosol deposition of Saharan origin may explain 1 to 10% (average 5%) of seasonally detrended chlorophyll variability in the low nutrient-low chlorophyll Mediterranean. Most of the statistically significant correlations are positive with main effects in spring over the Eastern and Central Mediterranean, conforming to a view of dust events fueling needed nutrients to the planktonic community. Some areas show negative effects of dust deposition on chlorophyll, coinciding with regions under a large influence of aerosols from European origin. The influence of dust deposition on chlorophyll dynamics may become larger in future scenarios of increased aridity and shallowing of the mixed layer.     

Early Human Speciation,Brain Expansion and Dispersal Influenced by African Climate Pulses

Early human evolution is characterised by pulsed speciation and dispersal events that cannot be explained fully by global or continental paleoclimate records. We propose that the collated record of ephemeral East African Rift System (EARS) lakes could be a proxy for the regional paleoclimate conditions experienced by early hominins. Here we show that the presence of these lakes is associated with low levels of dust deposition in both West African and Mediterranean records, but is not associated with long-term global cooling and aridification of East Africa. Hominin expansion and diversification seem to be associated with climate pulses characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of deep EARS lakes. The most profound period for hominin evolution occurs at about 1.9 Ma; with the highest recorded diversity of hominin species, the appearance of Homo (sensu stricto) and major dispersal events out of East Africa into Eurasia. During this period, ephemeral deep-freshwater lakes appeared along the whole length of the EARS, fundamentally changing the local environment. The relationship between the local environment and hominin brain expansion is less clear. The major step-wise expansion in brain size around 1.9 Ma when Homo appeared was coeval with the occurrence of ephemeral deep lakes. Subsequent incremental increases in brain size are associated with dry periods with few if any lakes. Plio-Pleistocene East African climate pulses as evinced by the paleo-lake records seem, therefore, fundamental to hominin speciation, encephalisation and migration.     

Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa

Aim Africa is expected to face severe changes in climatic conditions. Our objectives are: (1) to model trends and the extent of future biome shifts that may occur by 2050, (2) to model a trend in tree cover change, while accounting for human impact, and (3) to evaluate uncertainty in future climate projections. Location West Africa. Methods We modelled the potential future spatial distribution of desert, grassland, savanna, deciduous and evergreen forest in West Africa using six bioclimatic models. Future tree cover change was analysed with generalized additive models (GAMs). We used climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) and included human population density and fire intensity to model tree cover. Consensus projections were derived via weighted averages to: (1) reduce inter‐model variability, and (2) describe trends extracted from different GCM projections. Results The strongest predicted effect of climate change was on desert and grasslands, where the bioclimatic envelope of grassland is projected to expand into the desert by an area of 2 million km². While savannas are predicted to contract in the south (by 54 ± 22 × 10⁴ km²), deciduous and evergreen forest biomes are expected to expand (64 ± 13 × 10⁴ km² and 77 ± 26 × 10⁴ km²). However, uncertainty due to different GCMs was particularly high for the grassland and the evergreen biome shift. Increasing tree cover (1–10%) was projected for large parts of Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo, but a decrease was projected for coastal areas (1–20%). Furthermore, human impact negatively affected tree cover and partly changed the direction of the projected change from increase to decrease. Main conclusions Considering climate change alone, the model results of potential vegetation (biomes) show a ‘greening’ trend by 2050. However, the modelled effects of human impact suggest future forest degradation. Thus, it is essential to consider both climate change and human impact in order to generate realistic future tree cover projections.     

SPRING MIGRATION THROUGH SOUTHEAST MOROCCO

Very few quantitative data existed for the spring migration of birds across the Sahara desert. Observations covering 105 days in spring 1963–66 were made at Defilia, on the extreme northern fringe of the desert in southeast Morocco. The physical features and climate of the area are described, with brief reference to neighbouring desert zones. The birds recorded are listed in weekly or part-weekly totals, followed by subspecific and other comments on selected species.
The movements of migrants are summarized, together with the effects of adverse winds on migration; very bad weather along the northern desert fringe may contribute to the late arrival of some species in the British Isles (and presumably elsewhere in Europe) in spring by causing delays and heavy mortality. Most visible migration was northeastward or eastward, but substantial westward movements of hirundines took place.
Comparison is made with migration through other areas in Morocco and Algeria, both from existing literature and from previously unpublished data, which provide evidence of broad-front migration across the entire width of the Moroccan Sahara. Birds recorded in northwest Algeria in 1966 are listed, together with notes on physical features, climate and field observations. Many terns and waders were recorded at Daiat Tchiour, including some predominantly coastal species, which suggests that the latter were migrating on a great-circle track from winter quarters in West Africa across the Sahara to their breeding grounds in Siberia.
Recoveries of ringed birds are discussed; some of these, together with records of species well west of their normal migratory range, suggest that birds may be subject to lateral displacement by winds when crossing the Sahara, leading to considerable annual variation in species and numbers of birds recorded on the northern desert edge, even in the same place.     

When and where to fuel before crossing the Sahara desert – extended stopover and migratory fuelling in first-year garden warblers Sylvia borin

Large numbers of passerine migrants cross the Sahara desert every year on their way to-and-from wintering areas in tropical Africa. In the desert, hardly any fuelling opportunities exist and most migrants have to prepare in advance. A central question is how inexperienced birds know where to fuel. Inexperienced garden warblers Sylvia borin were studied in Greece just before the desert crossing in autumn. Body mass data collected at two sites indicate that most birds do not fuel for the desert crossing further north. For the first time, detailed information about stopover duration close to the Sahara desert was studied by using light weight radio-transmitters. Results from Crete show that most first-year garden warblers arrive with relatively small fuel loads in relation to lean body mass (<30%), stay for 13–20 d and depart with an average fuel load of about 100%. Radio-tagged birds performed small scale movements initially and took advantage of fig fruits. Birds trapped at fig trees were heavier than birds trapped with tape lures, showing that tape lures can bias the sample of migrants trapped. The precise fuelling pattern found indicates that first-year migrants must also include external spatial cues to make the preparation for crossing the desert in the right area.     

沙坡头人工植被演替过程的土壤呼吸特征

为探讨人工植被演替过程对土壤呼吸速率的影响,本文利用碱液吸收法同步测定了腾格里沙漠东南缘1956、1964、1981、1987、1989、2007年始植的人工植被区和2007年新铺设的草方格固沙区及流沙区的土壤呼吸速率变化,同时分析了土壤水分和温度对上述不同样地土壤呼吸的影响。结果表明:1) 总体而言,土壤呼吸速率随着人工植被演替时间的延长而逐渐增大。当土壤含水量较高时,不同始植年代人工植被区的土壤呼吸速率具有显著的差异(P<0.05);当土壤含水量较低时,不同始植年代植被区的土壤呼吸速率没有显著的差异(P>0.05)。2)土壤呼吸速率与土壤含水量呈正相关关系,且相关系数随着人工植被演替时间的延长而逐渐增大。3)利用土壤呼吸速率-土壤温度指数函数关系计算得到不同人工植被演替阶段土壤呼吸速率的Q₁₀值均较低(平均值仅为1.02)。土壤温度对1987、1989年人工植被区内的土壤呼吸速率产生了显著影响(P<0.05),而对其他样地的土壤呼吸速率影响不显著 (P>0.05)。综合说明,人工植被的演替过程改变了土壤呼吸速率大小及其对土壤水分和温度的响应。     

Genetic damage in subjects exposed to radiofrequency radiation

Despite many research efforts and public debate there is still great concern about the possible adverse effects of radiofrequency (RF) radiation on human health. This is especially due to the enormous increase of wireless mobile telephones and other telecommunication devices throughout the world. The possible genetic effects of mobile phone radiation and other sources of radiofrequencies constitute one of the major points of concern. In the past several review papers were published on laboratory investigations that were devoted to in vitro and in vivo animal (cyto)genetic studies. However, it may be assumed that some of the most important observations are those obtained from studies with individuals that were exposed to relatively high levels of radiofrequency radiation, either as a result of their occupational activity or as frequent users of radiofrequency emitting tools. In this paper the cytogenetic biomonitoring studies of RF-exposed humans are reviewed. A majority of these studies do show that RF-exposed individuals have increased frequencies of genetic damage (e.g., chromosomal aberrations) in their lymphocytes or exfoliated buccal cells. However, most of the studies, if not all, have a number of shortcomings that actually prevents any firm conclusion. Radiation dosimetry was lacking in all papers, but some of the investigations were flawed by much more severe imperfections. Large well-coordinated multidisciplinary investigations are needed in order to reach any robust conclusion.     

Marine Communities on Oil Platforms in Gabon,West Africa: High Biodiversity Oases in a Low Biodiversity Environment

The marine biodiversity of Gabon, West Africa has not been well studied and is largely unknown. Our examination of marine communities associated with oil platforms in Gabon is the first scientific investigation of these structures and highlights the unique ecosystems associated with them. A number of species previously unknown to Gabonese waters were recorded during our surveys on these platforms. Clear distinctions in benthic communities were observed between older, larger platforms in the north and newer platforms to the south or closer to shore. The former were dominated by a solitary cup coral, Tubastraea sp., whereas the latter were dominated by the barnacle Megabalanus tintinnabulum, but with more diverse benthic assemblages compared to the northerly platforms. Previous work documented the presence of limited zooxanthellated scleractinian corals on natural rocky substrate in Gabon but none were recorded on platforms. Total estimated fish biomass on these platforms exceeded one ton at some locations and was dominated by barracuda (Sphyraena spp.), jacks (Carangids), and rainbow runner (Elagatis bipinnulata). Thirty-four percent of fish species observed on these platforms are new records for Gabon and 6% are new to tropical West Africa. Fish assemblages closely associated with platforms had distinct amphi-Atlantic affinities and platforms likely extend the distribution of these species into coastal West Africa. At least one potential invasive species, the snowflake coral (Carijoa riisei), was observed on the platforms. Oil platforms may act as stepping stones, increasing regional biodiversity and production but they may also be vectors for invasive species. Gabon is a world leader in terrestrial conservation with a network of protected areas covering >10% of the country. Oil exploration and biodiversity conservation currently co-exist in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in Gabon. Efforts to increase marine protection in Gabon may benefit by including oil platforms in the marine protected area design process.     

The Admixture Structure and Genetic Variation of the Archipelago of Cape Verde and Its Implications for Admixture Mapping Studies

Recently admixed populations offer unique opportunities for studying human history and for elucidating the genetic basis of complex traits that differ in prevalence between human populations. Historical records, classical protein markers, and preliminary genetic data indicate that the Cape Verde islands in West Africa are highly admixed and primarily descended from European males and African females. However, little is known about the variation in admixture levels, admixture dynamics and genetic diversity across the islands, or about the potential of Cape Verde for admixture mapping studies. We have performed a detailed analysis of phenotypic and genetic variation in Cape Verde based on objective skin color measurements, socio-economic status (SES) evaluations and data for 50 autosomal, 34 X-chromosome, and 21 non-recombinant Y-chromosome (NRY) markers in 845 individuals from six islands of the archipelago. We find extensive genetic admixture between European and African ancestral populations (mean West African ancestry = 0.57, sd = 0.08), with individual African ancestry proportions varying considerably among the islands. African ancestry proportions calculated with X and Y-chromosome markers confirm that the pattern of admixture has been sex-biased. The high-resolution NRY-STRs reveal additional patterns of variation among the islands that are most consistent with differentiation after admixture. The differences in the autosomal admixture proportions are clearly evident in the skin color distribution across the islands (Pearson r = 0.54, P-value<2e–16). Despite this strong correlation, there are significant interactions between SES and skin color that are independent of the relationship between skin color and genetic ancestry. The observed distributions of admixture, genetic variation and skin color and the relationship of skin color with SES relate to historical and social events taking place during the settlement history of Cape Verde, and have implications for the design of association studies using this population.     

Phylogeographic Reconstruction of African Yellow Fever Virus Isolates Indicates Recent Simultaneous Dispersal into East and West Africa

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that is a major public health problem in tropical areas of Africa and South America. There have been detailed studies on YFV ecology in West Africa and South America, but current understanding of YFV circulation on the African continent is incomplete. This inadequacy is especially notable for East and Central Africa, for which the unpredictability of human outbreaks is compounded by limitations in both historical and present surveillance efforts. Sparse availability of nucleotide sequence data makes it difficult to investigate the dispersal of YFV in these regions of the continent. To remedy this, we constructed Bayesian phylogenetic and geographic analyses utilizing 49 partial genomic sequences to infer the structure of YFV divergence across the known range of the virus on the African continent. Relaxed clock analysis demonstrated evidence for simultaneous divergence of YFV into east and west lineages, a finding that differs from previous hypotheses of YFV dispersal from reservoirs located on edges of the endemic range. Using discrete and continuous geographic diffusion models, we provide detailed structure of YFV lineage diversity. Significant transition links between extant East and West African lineages are presented, implying connection between areas of known sylvatic cycling. The results of demographic modeling reinforce the existence of a stably maintained population of YFV with spillover events into human populations occurring periodically. Geographically distinct foci of circulation are reconstructed, which have significant implications for studies of YFV ecology and emergence of human disease. We propose further incorporation of Bayesian phylogeography into formal GIS analyses to augment studies of arboviral disease.     

Mapping Transmission Risk of Lassa Fever in West Africa: The Importance of Quality Control,Sampling Bias,and Error Weighting

Lassa fever is a disease that has been reported from sites across West Africa; it is caused by an arenavirus that is hosted by the rodent M. natalensis. Although it is confined to West Africa, and has been documented in detail in some well-studied areas, the details of the distribution of risk of Lassa virus infection remain poorly known at the level of the broader region. In this paper, we explored the effects of certainty of diagnosis, oversampling in well-studied region, and error balance on results of mapping exercises. Each of the three factors assessed in this study had clear and consistent influences on model results, overestimating risk in southern, humid zones in West Africa, and underestimating risk in drier and more northern areas. The final, adjusted risk map indicates broad risk areas across much of West Africa. Although risk maps are increasingly easy to develop from disease occurrence data and raster data sets summarizing aspects of environments and landscapes, this process is highly sensitive to issues of data quality, sampling design, and design of analysis, with macrogeographic implications of each of these issues and the potential for misrepresenting real patterns of risk.