基于个体的中国森林生态系统碳收支模型FORCCHN及模型验证

以植物生理学、森林生态学和土壤环境学的基本原理为基础,建立了基于个体的中国森林生态系统碳收支模型FORCCHN。模型通过两种步长运行:在步长为天时的基本过程包括林分(个体)的光合、呼吸、分配和凋落,以及凋落物和土壤有机物的呼吸和转移;在步长为年时的基本过程包括林分的同化物分配、树高和胸径增长、大凋落物生成。通过对模型样地水平上与全国总量上NPP、NEP的验证,说明该模型在考虑幼龄林基础上,能较好的模拟出中国森林生态系统的碳收支,因此可以用来模拟中国森林生态系统碳收支的过去动态和未来发展趋势。     

贡嘎山亚高山森林自然演替特征与模拟

通过对贡嘎山典型天然林样地动态的调查和群落结构的研究,基本掌握了青藏高原东部亚高山森林植被的演替特征和过程,在自然生态竞争条件下,树木的种源通过扩散,就地下种和萌发新技产生的幼苗只有极少数能够生长成大树,在树木繁育过程中,光照,水分,温度和养分竞争是决定性条件,山地灾变干扰对森林的更新也具有重要作用,提出的贡嗄山森林演替模型（GFSM）在树木个体生命史模型的基础上重现了群落的演替动态,特别是将土壤形成与树木演变结合起来,采用随机过程模拟气候波动及单木生长死亡的不确定性,揭示了亚高山天然条件下的森林个体与群落的行动态,对于解决天然林更新与保护提供了系统的分析预测技术与理论。     

集水区尺度下东北东部森林土壤呼吸的模拟

IBIS模型是陆地碳循环模拟的有利工具,土壤呼吸是陆地碳循环的关键生态学过程,利用IBIS模型模拟估算土壤呼吸对陆地碳循环和全球变化研究具有重要意义.在地形数据、植被参数、土壤质地参数和气象数据支持下,利用改造后的IBIS模型模拟2004年张家沟集水区5种森林类型的土壤呼吸,以实测数据对模拟结果进行验证,并分析土壤呼吸时空格局及其与土壤温湿度的关系.结果表明:(1)改造后的IBIS模型模拟的土壤呼吸值与实测值相关性显著,可较好地用于集水区尺度的森林土壤呼吸模拟估算.(2)土壤呼吸年均值为571 gCm-2 a-1,年土壤呼吸空间格局与生长季土壤呼吸空间格局相似,均表现为高值区主要分布在北部、西南和东南区域,低值区主要分布在沟谷附近,该格局与集水区的地形、植被及其组合等因素有关.(3)生长季内,5种森林类型土壤呼吸的季节性变化均呈单峰曲线形式,土壤呼吸峰值均出现在7月,其中落叶松林峰值最低,为85.5gC/m2,杂木林峰值最高,为146.3 gC/m2.(4)5种森林类型的土壤呼吸值与5 cm深土壤温度存在极显著的指数关系,与土壤湿度的相关性较低,土壤温度的变化可以解释土壤呼吸约70％的季节变化.     

应用地理信息系统模拟森林景观动态的研究

根据地理信息系统的结构,通过数据文件的转换,把它与森林动态模型有机地结合起来,可实现对森林景观动态的模拟和预测。这种模拟方法的数据输入灵活,运行速度快,尤其是它可以获得一些以各种图表的形式输出的模拟结果。本文用文字和框图详细描述了地理信息系统的组成与结构,及森林动态模型的选择与运行方式,并以长白山森林景观为例,叙述了这种模拟方法的整个过程。     

大尺度森林碳循环过程模拟模型综述

森林生态系统碳循环是全球陆地生态系统碳循环的重要组成部分,而碳循环模型已经成为研究森林碳循环的必要手段。森林碳循环模型可以分为统计模型和过程模型,其中过程模型以其完整的理论框架、严谨的结构分析和清晰的过程机理,逐渐占据了主导地位。从地球化学过程模型、陆面物理过程模型和生物过程模型等3个方面综述区域尺度到全球尺度(本文称为大尺度)森林碳循环过程模型研究进展,论述了各类模型的主要特征、优缺点以及应用现状,探讨了森林碳循环模拟研究中存在的问题,并讨论了森林碳循环过程模型的主流研究方向。可为不同空间尺度下森林生态系统碳循环模拟模型的选择提供参考,以及为森林碳循环研究提供借鉴。     

生态系统减轻水环境磷素非点源污染服务及价值——以雅砻江二滩水库为例

以ArcGIS9.2为平台,构建了生态系统减轻集水区出口受纳水体非点源污染服务物质量和价值量评估模型。包括模拟集水区范围,根据各种土地利用/覆被类型的污染物质输出及过滤污染能力系数,沿汇流路径,模拟集水区内每个栅格像元被植被移除而未进入水环境的污染物质量空间分布特征。价值量模型结合期望水质标准和净化污染物的边际成本进行计算。以磷素作为指示污染物,在二滩水库的集水区进行了模型的运用。结果表明:二滩水库集水区南部的河道附近是水文敏感区。其中盐源县腹地的农作区、西昌市与冕宁县,以及集水区最北端的称多县、中部的甘孜县等部分地区是是磷素关键污染源区。2000年被集水区生态系统过滤移除而未进入水环境的磷素污染物质总量达到978.90t.a-1,占关键污染源区指数总量的81.88%。林地生态系统服务价值贡献率最高。2000年集水区生态系统对于减轻其出口受纳水体磷素非点源污染服务的总价值为1370.18万元。     

气候变化对小兴安岭森林影响的模拟研究(英文)

中国东北小兴安岭的温带针阔混交林是中国重要的商品木材资源。本文应用森林林窗模型 NEWCOP来模拟森林的生长和更新。研究表明 ,该模型可以再现森林的树种组成动态和森林的分布 ,故可以用来模拟气候变化对森林的可能影响。通过模拟在 GISS 2× CO2 和 GFDL 2× CO2 气候变化情景下的小兴安岭现有森林的动态发现 :在未来 10 0 a现存森林可能有一个快速衰退过程 ,随后可恢复为落叶阔叶树 (如蒙古栎 )为主要树种的森林 ,从而取代了目前针叶树种在森林树种组成的优势地位     

基于森林资源清查、卫星影像数据与随机协同模拟尺度转换方法的森林碳制图

当前,全球变暖对地球生态系统的影响正引起世界的广泛关注.为减缓其影响进程,让决策者获得准确的碳源/碳汇空间分布信息与动态至关重要.目前面临的重大挑战是如何准确估计森林碳的空间分布和分析估计结果的不确定性.本研究基于森林资源连续清查样地数据和遥感影像数据发展了一个森林碳制图的一般方法.基于序列高斯协同模拟算法,结合样地数据与卫星影像数据进行模拟,将森林碳汇分布图的尺度从30 m×30 m转换到900m×900m(区域、国家和全球森林碳制图单位大小).以临安市为例,利用全市2004年森林资源清查样地数据和同年度Landsat TM影像数据,进行研究区森林碳(地上部分)模拟和尺度转换.结果显示,方法准确重现了森林碳空间分布和变异规律,在分布上模拟结果与地面样地属性具有较好的一致性,在数量上模拟结果的总体平均值较地面样地的总体平均值低约24.9%;模拟还提供了其估计结果的不确定性, 包括估计值的方差和估计值大于一定阈值的概率,这些可用于不确定性传播模型的模拟分析,进而实现对森林碳估计结果的评价.     

异质种群动态模型:破碎化景观动态模拟的新途径

景观破碎化导致物种以异质种群方式存活,使得基于异质种群动态模拟破碎化景观动态成为可能。异质种群动态模型的发展为景观动态模拟奠定了良好基础。根据空间处理方式的不同,异质种群模型可分为三大类,可不同程度地用于描述破碎化景观动态。(1)空间不确定异质种群模型,假定所有局域种群间均等互联,模型中不包含空间信息,仅能用于景观斑块动态描述;(2)空间确定异质种群模型,假设局域种群在二维空间上以规则格子形式排列,是一种准现实的空间处理方式,可用于景观动态的简单描述;(3)空间现实异质种群模型,包含了破碎化景观中局域种群的几何特征,可直接用于真实景观动态的模拟研究。空间现实的和基于个体的异质种群模型不但是未来异质种群模型发展的主流,也将成为未来破碎化景观动态研究的重要工具。为了更加准确完整地描述破碎化景观动态,不但应该综合运用已有的各种异质种群模型方法,更要引进新模型来刎画多物种、多变量、高维度、复杂连接的破碎化景观格局与过程。     

基于智能体模型的土地利用动态模拟研究进展

土地利用动态变化是全球变化和可持续发展研究的基础,对区域水循环、大气循环、环境质量、气候变化及陆地生态系统生产力等具有重要影响,也是造成生物多样性衰减的最主要原因.目前,建立于复杂性科学基础上的的智能体模型(ABM)成为土地利用动态模拟的重要方法.智能体模型能模拟个体或群体的行为及决策模式,从而能将政府、城市规划、房地产开发商、住户等社会群体及个人对土地利用产生的影响进行模拟,同时能对不同社会经济政策对土地动态影响进行模拟.智能体模型在元胞自动机基础上,加入了人为因素的智能体概念,从而能更好地模拟土地动态.在分析总结了智能体模型的相关概念和组织结构,并分析了其在土地利用动态、城市动态模拟及生态过程模拟等方面的应用与元胞自动机的关系,比较了常用的智能体模型的主要软件,最后概括了智能体模型优点、发展趋势及存在的主要问题.     

Moving beyond abundance distributions: neutral theory and spatial patterns in a tropical forest

Assessing the relative importance of different processes that determine the spatial distribution of species and the dynamics in highly diverse plant communities remains a challenging question in ecology. Previous modelling approaches often focused on single aggregated forest diversity patterns that convey limited information on the underlying dynamic processes. Here, we use recent advances in inference for stochastic simulation models to evaluate the ability of a spatially explicit and spatially continuous neutral model to quantitatively predict six spatial and non-spatial patterns observed at the 50 ha tropical forest plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The patterns capture different aspects of forest dynamics and biodiversity structure, such as annual mortality rate, species richness, species abundance distribution, beta-diversity and the species–area relationship (SAR). The model correctly predicted each pattern independently and up to five patterns simultaneously. However, the model was unable to match the SAR and beta-diversity simultaneously. Our study moves previous theory towards a dynamic spatial theory of biodiversity and demonstrates the value of spatial data to identify ecological processes. This opens up new avenues to evaluate the consequences of additional process for community assembly and dynamics.     

An evolutionary tolerance model explaining spatial patterns in species richness under environmental gradients and geometric constraints

In this study, we developed a simulation model based on the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of geographical ranges, to understand the role of species' environmental tolerances and the strength of the environmental gradient in determining spatial patterns in species richness. Using an one-dimensional space, we present the model and dissect its parameters. Also, we test the ability of the model to simulate richness in complex two-dimensional domains and to fit real patterns in species richness, using South American Tyrannidae as an example. We found that a mid-spatial peak in species richness arises spontaneously under conditions of high environmental tolerances and/or a weak environmental gradient, since this condition causes wide species' geographic ranges, which are constrained by domain's boundary and tend to overlap in the middle. Our model was also a good predictor of real patterns in species richness, especially under conditions of high environmental strength and small species' tolerance. We conclude that this kind of spatial simulation models based on species' physiological tolerance may be an important tool to understand the evolutionary dynamics of species' geographic ranges and in spatial patterns of species richness.     

森林经营决策支持系统的设计与实现及在采伐中的应用

我国传统的森林经营方式比较落后,数字化水平不高,决策过程比较盲目.在地理信息系统平台中集成森林动态模型,建立森林经营决策支持系统,可以充分发挥地理信息系统的可视化、空间分析以及模型模拟预测功能,加强处理森林在较大时空尺度上的动态变化的能力.本文设计并实现了森林生长率模型、景观采伐模型和矩阵模型,开发了森林经营决策支持系统,回答森林采伐经营中“采多少,采哪里,怎么采”的三个主要问题,在长白山区的露水河林业局和三岔子林业局进行应用,为提高我国森林可持续经营管理的数字化水平提供了技术支持.     

The Effects of Seed Dispersal on the Simulation of Long-Term Forest Landscape Change

The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal, cannot be realistically simulated across large landscapes. To simulate seed dispersal, spatially explicit landscape models that track individual species distribution are needed. We used such a model, LANDIS, to illustrate the implications of seed dispersal for simulating forest landscape change. On an artificial open landscape with a uniform environment, circular-shaped tree species establishment patterns resulted from the simulations, with areas near seed sources more densely covered than areas further from seed sources. Because LANDIS simulates at 10-y time steps, this pattern reflects an integration of various possible dispersal shapes and establishment that are caused by the annual variations in climate and other environmental variables. On real landscapes, these patterns driven only by species dispersal radii are obscured by other factors, such as species competition, disturbance, and landscape structure. To further demonstrate the effects of seed dispersal, we chose a fairly disturbed and fragmented forest landscape (approximately 500,000 ha) in northern Wisconsin. We compared the simulation results of a map with tree species (seed source locations) realistically parameterized (the real scenario) against a randomly parameterized species map (the random scenario). Differences in the initial seed source distribution lead to different simulation results of species abundance with species abundance starting at identical levels under the two scenarios. This is particularly true for the first half of the model run (0–250 y). Under the random scenario, infrequently occurring and shade tolerant species tend to be overestimated, while midabundant and midshade tolerant species tend to be underestimated. The over- and underestimation of species abundance diminish when examining long-term (500 y) landscape dynamics, because stochastic factors, such as fire, tend to make the landscapes under both scenarios converge. However, differences in spatial patterns, and especially species age-cohort distributions, can persist under the two scenarios for several hundred years. Received 24 November 1998; accepted 17 March 1999.     

暖温带落叶阔叶林动态变化的模拟研究

用森林动态林窗模型 FORET1模拟了暖温带落叶阔叶林的长期变化特征。模型参数取自暖温带地区长期森林研究和经营的历史数据 ,对过去数据中缺少的参数进行了实地测定 ,并用观测的数据对模型作了检验。结果表明模型能较好地模拟暖温带落叶阔叶林的长期动态变化特征。通过模拟可以看出 ,森林的净初级生产力没有明显变化规律且极度不稳定 ,峰值出现在30 a左右 ,相似于世界上其它地区森林动态格局变化 ,生物量格局呈循环状态变化 ,循环周期大致在 110 a左右。     

森林流域生态水文过程动力学机制与模拟研究进展

水文过程是联系气候变化和森林生态系统时空变化的关键因素．未来的气候变化和人类大尺度活动将影响森林流域生态系统与水文过程的变化,森林流域生态与水文过程耦合、生态系统水文过程动力学机制研究在认识和调控生态资源及其合理利用、区域生态恢复,以及社会经济可持续方面均具有重要意义．森林流域生态系统中的水文过程可分为降雨截留、蒸散和产汇流过程．森林流域生态与水文耦合过程边界条件的确定,土壤表面特定水文过程的参数化,降雨、土壤水分运动和植被的动态耦合作用,分布式模型的应用以及森林生态水文过程动力学机制与调控等将是今后生态水文动力学过程研究的重点,综述了森林流域生态水文过程动力学机制与调控的研究进展。     

Computer simulation of protein molecular dynamics

A review of the works on the computer simulation of the globular protein dynamics is given. Methodological aspects of the simulation procedure are outlined briefly. Main peculiarities of protein dynamics revealed in the course of simulation of pancreatic trypsin inhibitor and cytochrome c are presented. The causes of "anomalous" processes, inherent in the simulated behaviour of model proteins are discussed. These "anomalous" processes are: continuous drift of the structure and its deviation from the experimental one, determined by X-ray analysis. Both processes are supposed to be the consequence of the reduced conformational rigidity of the model protein in comparison to the real one. Among the possible reasons for this reduced rigidity absence of the water molecules, hydrating peptide groups in the real protein, may be mentioned. Analogy between "anomalous" processes in the simulated protein dynamics and some phenomena observed in the real proteins during their functioning is drawn.     

Tropical forest diversity,environmental change and species augmentation: After the intermediate disturbance hypothesis

Abstract. It is not simple to predict how environmental changes may impact tropical forest species diversity. Published hypotheses are almost invariably too incomplete, too poorly specified and too dependent upon unrealistic assumptions to be useful. Ecologists have sought theoretical simplicity, and while this has provided many elegant abstract concepts, it has hindered the attainment of more practical goals. The problem is not how to judge the individual hypotheses and arguments, but rather how to build upon and combine the many hard-won facts and principles into an integrated science. Controversy is inevitable when the assumptions, definitions and applications of a given hypothesis are unclear. Elegance, as an end in itself, has too often been used to justify abstract simplification and a lack of operational definition. Clarifying and combining hypotheses while avoiding assumptions provides a potentially more useful, if less elegant, standpoint. An appraisal of Connell's intermediate disturbance hypothesis, and its application to long-term observations from a Ugandan forest illustrates these concerns. Current emphases encourage ecologists to exclude consideration of environmental instability and non-pristine ecosystems. In reality, many environmental changes and ecological processes contribute to both the accumulation and erosion of diversity, at all spatial and temporal scales. Site histories, contexts, long-term processes, species-pool dynamics, and the role of people require greater emphasis. These considerations reveal that many environmental changes, even those associated with degradation, can lead to a transient rise in species densities. Drawing on related studies, such as forest yield prediction, suggests that the formulation and calibration of simulation models provides the most tractable means to address the complexity of real vegetation. Simulation-based approaches will become increasingly useful both in unifying the study of vegetation dynamics and in providing improved predictive capacity. Quantification of the processes, scales and sensitivities of the dynamics of tropical forest communities remains a major challenge.