Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large‐scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient‐climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat‐dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod‐dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem‐based management context.     

Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea

Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain. We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO₂ effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age‐0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under www.oceanchange.uni-bremen.de/ ;SCREI. Severe reductions in average age‐0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification toward the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short‐term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long‐term safety for cod recruitment success. The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with interindividual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance toward an improved empirical foundation for quantifying climate change impacts on marine fish recruitment, relevant for ecosystem‐based assessments of marine systems under climate change.     

It is the economy,stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological–economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species – Atlantic salmon and European sea bass – mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process‐based ecological–economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.     

Forecasting Distributional Responses of Limber Pine to Climate Change at Management-Relevant Scales in Rocky Mountain National Park

Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species'' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m²) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species'' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used to help guide adaptive management.     

New encounters in Arctic waters: a comparison of metabolism and performance of polar cod (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Boreogadus saida</Emphasis>) and Atlantic cod (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gadus morhua</Emphasis>) under ocean acidification and warming

Oceans are experiencing increasing acidification in parallel to a distinct warming trend in consequence of ongoing climate change. Rising seawater temperatures are mediating a northward shift in distribution of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), into the habitat of polar cod (Boreogadus saida), that is associated with retreating cold water masses. This study investigates the competitive strength of the co-occurring gadoids under ocean acidification and warming (OAW) scenarios. Therefore, we incubated specimens of both species in individual tanks for 4 months, under different control and projected temperatures (polar cod: 0, 3, 6, 8 °C, Atlantic cod: 3, 8, 12, 16 °C) and PCO₂ conditions (390 and 1170 µatm) and monitored growth, feed consumption and standard metabolic rate. Our results revealed distinct temperature effects on both species. While hypercapnia by itself had no effect, combined drivers caused nonsignificant trends. The feed conversion efficiency of normocapnic polar cod was highest at 0 °C, while optimum growth performance was attained at 6 °C; the long-term upper thermal tolerance limit was reached at 8 °C. OAW caused only slight impairments in growth performance. Under normocapnic conditions, Atlantic cod consumed progressively increasing amounts of feed than individuals under hypercapnia despite maintaining similar growth rates during warming. The low feed conversion efficiency at 3 °C may relate to the lower thermal limit of Atlantic cod. In conclusion, Atlantic cod displayed increased performance in the warming Arctic such that the competitive strength of polar cod is expected to decrease under future OAW conditions.     

Stock collapse and its effect on species interactions: Cod and herring in the Norwegian‐Barents Seas system as an example

Both the Norwegian Spring Spawning herring (Clupea harengus) and the Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod (Gadus morhua) are examples of strong stock reduction and decline of the associated fisheries due to overfishing followed by a recovery. Cod and herring are both part of the Barents Sea ecosystem, which has experienced major warming events in the early (1920–1940) and late 20th century. While the collapse or near collapse of these stocks seems to be linked to an instability created by overfishing and climate, the difference of population dynamics before and after is not fully understood. In particular, it is unclear how the changes in population dynamics before and after the collapses are associated with biotic interactions. The combination of the availability of unique long‐term time series for herring and cod makes it a well‐suited study system to investigate the effects of collapse. We examine how species interactions may differently affect the herring and cod population dynamic before and after a collapse. Particularly we explore, using a GAM modeling approach, how herring could affect cod and vice versa. We found that the effect of cod biomass on herring that was generally positive (i.e., covariation) but the effect became negative after the collapse (i.e., predation or competition). Likewise a change occurred for the cod, the juvenile herring biomass that had no effect before the collapse had a negative effect after. Our results indicate that the population collapses may alter the inter‐specific interactions and response to abiotic environmental changes. While the stocks are at similar abundance levels before and after the collapses, the system is potentially different in its functioning and may require different management action.     

Synergistic Effects of Climate and Fishing in a Marine Ecosystem

Current climate change and overfishing are affecting the productivity and structure of marine ecosystems. This situation is unprecedented for the marine biosphere and it is essential to understand the mechanisms and pathways by which ecosystems respond. We report that climate change and overfishing are likely to be responsible for a rapid restructuring of a highly productive marine ecosystem with effects throughout the pelagos and the benthos. In the mid-1980s, climate change, consequent modifications in the North Sea plankton, and fishing, all reduced North Sea cod recruitment. In this region, production of many benthic species respond positively and immediately to temperature. Analysis of a long-term, spatially extensive biological (plankton and cod) and physical (sea surface temperature) dataset suggests that synchronous changes in cod numbers and sea temperature have established an extensive trophic cascade favoring lower trophic level groups over economic fisheries. A proliferation of jellyfish that we detect may signal the climax of these changes. This modified North Sea ecology may provide a clear indication of the synergistic consequences of coincident climate change and overfishing. The extent of the ecosystem restructuring that has occurred in the North Sea suggests we are unlikely to reverse current climate and human-induced effects through ecosystem resource management in the short term. Rather, we should understand and adapt to new ecological regimes. This implies that fisheries management policies will have to be fully integrated with the ecological consequences of climate change to prevent a similar collapse in an exploited marine ecosystem elsewhere. Author Contributions  RRK conceived the project and GB analysed the data. RRK, GB and JAL co-wrote the paper.     

Mixed interactions among life history stages of two harvested related species

Climate change and harvesting can affect the ecosystems'' functioning by altering the population dynamics and interactions among species. Knowing how species interact is essential for better understanding potentially unintended consequences of harvest on multiple species in ecosystems. I analyzed how stage‐specific interactions between two harvested competitors, the haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), living in the Barents Sea affect the outcome of changes in the harvest of the two species. Using state‐space models that account for observation errors and stochasticity in the population dynamics, I run different harvesting scenarios and track population‐level responses of both species. The increasing temperature elevated the number of larvae of haddock but did not significantly influence the older age‐classes. The nature of the interactions between both species shifted from predator‐prey to competition around age‐2 to ‐3. Increased cod fishing mortality, which led to decreasing abundance of cod, was associated with an increasing overall abundance of haddock, which suggests compensatory dynamics of both species. From a stage‐specific approach, I show that a change in the abundance in one species may propagate to other species, threatening the exploited species'' recovery. Thus, this study demonstrates that considering interactions among life history stages of harvested species is essential to enhance species'' co‐existence in harvested ecosystems. The approach developed in this study steps forward the analyses of effects of harvest and climate in multi‐species systems by considering the comprehension of complex ecological processes to facilitate the sustainable use of natural resources.     

High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change

Despite recurrent emphasis on their ecological and economic roles, the importance of high trophic levels (HTLs) on ocean carbon dynamics, through passive (fecal pellet production, carcasses) and active (vertical migration) processes, is still largely unexplored, notably under climate change scenarios. In addition, HTLs impact the ecosystem dynamics through top-down effects on lower trophic levels, which might change under anthropogenic influence. Here we compare two simulations of a global biogeochemical–ecosystem model with and without feedbacks from large marine animals. We show that these large marine animals affect the evolution of low trophic level biomasses, hence net primary production and most certainly ecosystem equilibrium, but seem to have little influence on the 21st-century anthropogenic carbon uptake under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results provide new insights regarding the expectations for trophic amplification of climate change through the marine trophic chain and regarding the necessity to explicitly represent marine animals in Earth System Models.     

Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate‐mediated range shifts

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad‐scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment‐only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment‐only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate forecasts lead to ineffective prioritization of conservation activities and potentially to avoidable species extinctions.     

Gender Specific Reproductive Strategies of an Arctic Key Species (Boreogadus saida) and Implications of Climate Change

The Arctic climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. What consequences this may have on the Arctic marine ecosystem depends to a large degree on how its species will respond both directly to elevated temperatures and more indirectly through ecological interactions. But despite an alarming recent warming of the Arctic with accompanying sea ice loss, reports evaluating ecological impacts of climate change in the Arctic remain sparse. Here, based upon a large-scale field study, we present basic new knowledge regarding the life history traits for one of the most important species in the entire Arctic, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). Furthermore, by comparing regions of contrasting climatic influence (domains), we present evidence as to how its growth and reproductive success is impaired in the warmer of the two domains. As the future Arctic is predicted to resemble today''s Atlantic domains, we forecast changes in growth and life history characteristics of polar cod that will lead to alteration of its role as an Arctic keystone species. This will in turn affect community dynamics and energy transfer in the entire Arctic food chain.     

Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species’ persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010–2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18–85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions.     

Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near‐term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood

Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine‐scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind‐driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs’ ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high‐resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine‐scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under ‘normal’ combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020–2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high‐resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near‐term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean–atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse‐scale GCMs.     

Long-term prediction on Baltic fish stocks based on periodicity of solar activity

The methods presently in wide use for the assessment of marine ecosystems and fish stocks cannot provide the high-quality long-term prognoses urgently needed for improved management of marine ecosystems and their fishery resources. A novel method of forecasting the long-term qualitative composition of ecosystem and fish stocks in the Baltic Sea based on the periodicity and succession of the processes: extraterrestrial factors????climate changes????regime forming factors (chiefly salinity and temperature)????ecosystems????fish stocks was used in 1989 to predict the approximate year class abundances of cod (Gadus morhua callarias), sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus), sea herring and gulf herring (Clupea harengus membras) in the Baltic Sea for the years 1989?C2008. A comparison with actual development up to 2008 show that this prognosis was confirmed to a considerable extent. The method based on periodical fluctuations of freshwater input and the thermal regime is described. It predicts a new regime shift in the 2020s to a higher salinity and more acceptable conditions for the organisms of marine origin.     

Investigating uncertainties in zooplankton composition shifts under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Sea

Ensemble niche modelling has become a common framework to predict changes in assemblages composition under climate change scenarios. The amount of uncertainty generated by the different components of this framework has rarely been assessed. In the marine realm forecasts have usually focused on taxa representing the top of the marine food‐web, thus overlooking their basal component: the plankton. Calibrating environmental niche models at the global scale, we modelled the habitat suitability of 106 copepod species and estimated the dissimilarity between present and future zooplanktonic assemblages in the surface Mediterranean Sea. We identified the patterns (species replacement versus nestedness) driving the predicted dissimilarity, and quantified the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources: environmental niche models, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, circulation model configurations and species prevalence. Our results confirm that the choice of the niche modelling method is the greatest source of uncertainty in habitat suitability projections. Presence‐only and presence–absence methods provided different visions of the niches, which subsequently lead to different future scenarios of biodiversity changes. Nestedness with decline in species richness is the pattern driving dissimilarity between present and future copepod assemblages. Our projections contrast with those reported for higher trophic levels, suggesting that different components of the pelagic food‐web may respond discordantly to future climatic changes.     

Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change

Understanding how environmental and climate change can alter habitat overlap of marine predators has great value for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter‐specific overlap among three marine predators: Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), and harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) under contemporary and future conditions. Location data (>200 tagged individuals) were collected in the southwestern region of the Baltic Sea; one of the fastest‐warming semi‐enclosed seas in the world. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to estimate changes in total area size and overlap of species‐specific habitat suitability between 1997–2020 and 2091–2100. Predictor variables included environmental and climate‐sensitive oceanographic conditions in the area. Sea‐level rise, sea surface temperature, and salinity data were taken from representative concentration pathways [RCPs] scenarios 6.0 and 8.5 to forecast potential climate change effects. Model output suggested that habitat suitability of Baltic gray seals will decline over space and time, driven by changes in sea surface salinity and a loss of currently available haulout sites following sea‐level rise in the future. A similar, although weaker, effect was observed for harbor seals, while suitability of habitat for harbor porpoises was predicted to increase slightly over space and time. Inter‐specific overlap in highly suitable habitats was also predicted to increase slightly under RCP scenario 6.0 when compared to contemporary conditions, but to disappear under RCP scenario 8.5. Our study suggests that marine predators in the southwestern Baltic Sea may respond differently to future climatic conditions, leading to divergent shifts in habitat suitability that are likely to decrease inter‐specific overlap over time and space. We conclude that climate change can lead to a marked redistribution of area use by marine predators in the region, which may influence local food‐web dynamics and ecosystem functioning.     

Nonlinearity in interspecific interactions in response to climate change: Cod and haddock as an example

Climate change has profound ecological effects, yet our understanding of how trophic interactions among species are affected by climate change is still patchy. The sympatric Atlantic haddock and cod are co‐occurring across the North Atlantic. They compete for food at younger stages and thereafter the former is preyed by the latter. Climate change might affect the interaction and coexistence of these two species. Particularly, the increase in sea temperature (ST) has been shown to affect distribution, population growth and trophic interactions in marine systems. We used 33‐year long time series of haddock and cod abundances estimates from two data sources (acoustic and trawl survey) to analyse the dynamic effect of climate on the coexistence of these two sympatric species in the Arcto‐Boreal Barents Sea. Using a Bayesian state‐space threshold model, we demonstrated that long‐term climate variation, as expressed by changes of ST, affected species demography through different influences on density‐independent processes. The interaction between cod and haddock has shifted in the last two decades due to an increase in ST, altering the equilibrium abundances and the dynamics of the system. During warm years (ST over ca. 4°C), the increase in the cod abundance negatively affected haddock abundance while it did not during cold years. This change in interactions therefore changed the equilibrium population size with a higher population size during warm years. Our analyses show that long‐term climate change in the Arcto‐Boreal system can generate differences in the equilibrium conditions of species assemblages.     

Expected future plague levels in a wildlife host under different scenarios of climate change

We predicted future plague and black-tailed prairie dog dynamics in the North American prairies under different scenarios of climate change. A climate-driven model for the joint dynamic of the host–parasite system was used. Projections for the regional climate were obtained through empirical–statistical downscaling of global climate scenarios generated by an ensemble of global climate models for the recent Fourth Assessment Report by the IPCC. The study shows the uncertainties involved in predicting future regional climate and climate-driven population dynamics, but reveals that unchanged or lower levels of plague, leading to increased black-tailed prairie dog colonies, can be expected. Less plague is particularly expected for scenarios that assume the highest emission of greenhouse gases associated with the greatest projected future warming. Moreover, under high-emission scenarios, decreased probabilities of extremely high numbers of infected colonies are expected, along with decreased probabilities of extremely low total numbers of colonies. The assumed main underlying mechanism is an inhibiting effect of high temperatures on fleas (dispersal vector) and on flea-mediated transmission of the disease-causing bacterium. Our study highlights the importance of using dynamic ecological (here host–parasite) models together with ensembles of climate projections to investigate the responses of populations and parasites to a changed climate.     

Climate and cyclic hydrobiological changes of the Barents Sea from the twentieth to twenty-first centuries

The Barents Sea is a transition zone between North Atlantic and Arctic waters, so its marine ecosystem is highly sensitive to climate dynamics. Understanding of marine biota response to climate changes is necessary to assess the environmental stability and the state of marketable biological resources. These processes are analyzed using a database from the Murmansk Marine Biological Institute which holds oceanographic and hydrobiological data sets collected for more than 100?years along the meridional Kola Transect in the Barents Sea. The data demonstrate high variability in thermal state of the upper layer of the Barents Sea, which is regulated by varying the inflow of Atlantic water and by regional climate. At irregular intervals, cold periods with extended seasonal ice cover are followed by warm periods. The most recent warm period started in the late 1980s and reached its maximum from 2001 to 2006. These cyclic changes in hydrologic regime across the twentieth century and first decade of the twenty-first century are reflected (with a specific lag of 1–5?years) by changes in species composition, as well as abundance and distribution of boreal and arctic groups of macrozoobenthos and fish fauna. For instance, cod and cod fisheries in the Barents Sea are closely linked to the marine climate. Furthermore, Kamchatka crab stock recruitment benefited from the warm climate of 1989 and 1990. In general, studies in this region have shown that climatic dynamics may be assessed using biological indices of abundance, biomass, and migration of marine organisms, including commercial species.