A Reevaluation of Density-Dependent PopulationCycles in Open Systems

Studies motivated by consideration of barnacle populations have led to the prediction of two different dynamic states for space-limited open populations subject to density-dependent mortality. Population densities may cycle or fluctuate stochastically around a mean value. Despite the potential generality of the associated theory, there are few examples of population cycling in open systems that have been shown to be driven by density-dependent effects. This may be because settlement and growth processes are generally too slow or too variable to generate consistent cycles. An alternative explanation is examined in this article using spatially explicit simulations. Even under conditions of consistent settlement and growth, the cycles predicted in at least one previous study are shown to represent a special case. Clear population cycles are only observed when the density-dependent disturbances are constrained to reoccur in exactly the same location. In the more general case, where density-dependent disturbances respond to local variations in population density, the cycling predicted from simple models is difficult to detect. Hence, a failure to detect cycling in population density does not refute a role for density dependence. Density-dependent disturbances can create a characteristic spatial structure consisting of a mosaic of cohorts.     

Critical thresholds for eventual extinction in randomly disturbed population growth models

This paper considers several single species growth models featuring a carrying capacity, which are subject to random disturbances that lead to instantaneous population reduction at the disturbance times. This is motivated in part by growing concerns about the impacts of climate change. Our main goal is to understand whether or not the species can persist in the long run. We consider the discrete-time stochastic process obtained by sampling the system immediately after the disturbances, and find various thresholds for several modes of convergence of this discrete process, including thresholds for the absence or existence of a positively supported invariant distribution. These thresholds are given explicitly in terms of the intensity and frequency of the disturbances on the one hand, and the population’s growth characteristics on the other. We also perform a similar threshold analysis for the original continuous-time stochastic process, and obtain a formula that allows us to express the invariant distribution for this continuous-time process in terms of the invariant distribution of the discrete-time process, and vice versa. Examples illustrate that these distributions can differ, and this sends a cautionary message to practitioners who wish to parameterize these and related models using field data. Our analysis relies heavily on a particular feature shared by all the deterministic growth models considered here, namely that their solutions exhibit an exponentially weighted averaging property between a function of the initial condition, and the same function applied to the carrying capacity. This property is due to the fact that these systems can be transformed into affine systems.

     

Daily variations in the effects of disturbance on growth, fattening, and metamorphosis in the bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana) tadpole.

Bullfrog tadpoles subjected to the daily disturbance of water replacement demonstrated differences in the rates of growth and metamorphosis and in fatbody weights which depended on the time of day when water replacement occurred. Early daily disturbances stimulated larval growth whereas midday disturbances stimulated metamorphosis. The time when the daily disturbances caused fattening changed during metamorphosis so that younger tadpoles fattened when disturbed early in the photoperiod and older tadpoles fattened when disturbed at midday.     

Analysis of periodic growth-disturbance models

In this paper, I present and discuss a potentially useful modeling approach for investigating population dynamics in the presence of disturbance. Using the motivating example of wildfire, I construct and analyze a deterministic model of population dynamics with periodic disturbances independent of spatial effects. Plant population growth is coupled to fire disturbance to create a growth-disturbance model for a fluctuating population. Changes in the disturbance frequency are shown to generate a period-bubbling bifurcation structure and population dynamics that are most variable at intermediate disturbance frequencies. Similar dynamics are observed when the model is extended to include a seed bank. Some general conditions necessary for a rich bifurcation structure in growth-disturbance models are discussed.     

Importance of sleep for avian vocal communication

Sleep is one of the few truly ubiquitous animal behaviours, and though many animals spend enormous periods of time asleep, we have only begun to understand the consequences of sleep disturbances. In humans, sleep is crucial for effective communication. Birds are classic models for understanding the evolution and mechanisms of human language and speech. Bird vocalizations are remarkably diverse, critical, fitness-related behaviours, and the way sleep affects vocalizations is likely similarly varied. However, research on the effects of sleep disturbances on avian vocalizations is shockingly scarce. Consequently, there is a critical gap in our understanding of the extent to which sleep disturbances disrupt communication. Here, we argue that sleep disturbances are likely to affect all birds'' vocal performance by interfering with motivation, memory consolidation and vocal maintenance. Further, we suggest that quality sleep is likely essential when learning new vocalizations and that sleep disturbances will have especially strong effects on learned vocalizations. Finally, we advocate for future research to address gaps in our understanding of how sleep influences vocal learning and performance in birds.     

Population responses to natural and human-mediated disturbances: assessing the vulnerability of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius)

Vulnerable wildlife populations can face a suite of anthropogenic activities that may threaten their persistence. However, human‐mediated disturbances are likely to be coincident with natural disturbances that also influence a population. This synergism is often neglected in population projection models. Here I evaluate the effects of natural (rainfall fluctuation) and human disturbances (habitat loss and unregulated hunting) using a multi‐matrix environmental state population model for the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius). By evaluating each disturbance type (natural and human) alone and then together, I explicitly consider the importance of incorporating realistic environmental variability into population projection models. The model population was most strongly affected by moderate habitat loss, which yielded the highest probability of crossing the risk thresholds over the 60 year time period, although these probabilities were relatively low (≤0.31). However, the likelihood of crossing the risk thresholds were two to five times as high when human‐mediated and natural disturbances were considered together. When these probabilities were calculated per year of the simulation, the results suggested that even relatively mild human disturbances, when considered in conjunction with realistic natural disturbance, resulted in a high probability (>0.50) of substantial declines within decades. The model highlights the importance of integrating realistic natural disturbances into population models, and suggests that, despite locally abundant populations, protected hippopotamus populations may decline over the next 60 years in response to a combination of environmental fluctuations and human‐mediated threats.     

Disturbance regimes and life-history evolution

Disturbance regimes are ecologically important, but many of their evolutionary consequences are poorly understood. A model is developed here that combines the within- and among-season dynamics of disturbances with evolutionary life-history theory. "Disturbance regime" is defined in terms of disturbance timing, frequency, predictability, and severity. The model predicts the optimal body size and time at which organisms should abandon a disturbance-prone growth habitat by maturing and moving to a disturbance-free, nongrowth habitat. The effects of both coarse-grained (those affecting the entire population synchronously) and fine-grained disturbances (those occurring in a patch dynamics setting) are explored. Several predictions are congruent with previous theory. Infrequent or temporally unpredictable disturbances should have little effect on the evolution of life-history strategies, even though they may cause high mortality. Similar to seasonal time constraints on reproduction, disturbance regimes can synchronize metamorphosis within a population, resulting in a seasonal decline in body size at maturity. Other model predictions are novel. When disturbances cause high mortality, coarse-grained disturbances have a much stronger effect on life-history strategies than fine-grained disturbances, suggesting that population structure (relative to the scale of disturbance) plays a critical evolutionary role when disturbances are severe. When within-population variance in juvenile body size is high, two consecutive seasonal declines in body size at maturity can occur, the first associated with disturbance regime and the second associated with seasonal time constraints.     

The Role of Wildfire,Prescribed Fire,and Mountain Pine Beetle Infestations on the Population Dynamics of Black-Backed Woodpeckers in the Black Hills,South Dakota

Wildfire and mountain pine beetle infestations are naturally occurring disturbances in western North American forests. Black-backed woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus) are emblematic of the role these disturbances play in creating wildlife habitat, since they are strongly associated with recently-killed forests. However, management practices aimed at reducing the economic impact of natural disturbances can result in habitat loss for this species. Although black-backed woodpeckers occupy habitats created by wildfire, prescribed fire, and mountain pine beetle infestations, the relative value of these habitats remains unknown. We studied habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probabilities and reproductive rates between April 2008 and August 2012 in the Black Hills, South Dakota. We estimated habitat-specific adult and juvenile survival probability with Bayesian multi-state models and habitat-specific reproductive success with Bayesian nest survival models. We calculated asymptotic population growth rates from estimated demographic rates with matrix projection models. Adult and juvenile survival and nest success were highest in habitat created by summer wildfire, intermediate in MPB infestations, and lowest in habitat created by fall prescribed fire. Mean posterior distributions of population growth rates indicated growing populations in habitat created by summer wildfire and declining populations in fall prescribed fire and mountain pine beetle infestations. Our finding that population growth rates were positive only in habitat created by summer wildfire underscores the need to maintain early post-wildfire habitat across the landscape. The lower growth rates in fall prescribed fire and MPB infestations may be attributed to differences in predator communities and food resources relative to summer wildfire.     

Extinction of populations due to inbreeding depression with demographic disturbances

The process of population extinction due to inbreeding depression with constant demographic disturbances every generation is analysed using a population genetic and demographic model. The demographic disturbances introduced into the model represent loss of population size that is induced by any kind of human activities, e.g. through hunting and destruction of habitats. The genetic heterozygosity among recessive deleterious genes and the population size are assumed to be in equilibrium before the demographic disturbances start. The effects of deleterious mutations are represented by decreases in the growth rate and carrying capacity of a population. Numerical simulations indicate rapid extinction due to synergistic interaction between inbreeding depression and declining population size for realistic ranges of per-locus mutation rate, equilibrium population size, intrinsic rate of population growth, and strength of demographic disturbances. Large populations at equilibrium are more liable to extinction when disturbed due to inbreeding depression than small populations. This is a consequence of the fact that large populations maintain more recessive deleterious mutations than small populations. The rapid extinction predicted in the present study indicates the importance of the demographic history of a population in relation to extinction due to inbreeding depression.     

Synergistic effects of anthropogenic disturbances on giant pandas

Livestock grazing and the collection of bamboo shoots are the main threats to giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat in the Liangshan Mountains in China. It is important to clarify the effect of these disturbances to the giant panda to formulate targeted management policies. Based on species distribution models and daily activity models, we investigated the effects of livestock grazing and bamboo shoot collection on giant pandas from May 2021 to July 2022. Our results indicated the giant panda's suitable habitat in the reserve covered 51.83 km² (15.02% of the reserve area). Grazing and bamboo shoot collection led to losses of 19.08 km² and 7.68 km² of suitable habitat, respectively. Together, the 2 activities resulted in a loss of 28.35 km² of suitable habitat, which was more than half of the area of panda habitat. The areas of suitable habitat for giant pandas significantly overlapped with the areas affected by both disturbances. Giant pandas did not show significant differences in daily activity rhythms under a single disturbance, but the daily activity rhythms of giant pandas differed when we compared the area combining the 2 disturbances with the undisturbed area. Our study reveals that the anthropogenic disturbances in the reserve have varying effects on the suitable habitat range and daily activity rhythm of giant pandas and evidence of a synergistic effect. Therefore, when formulating relevant conservation policies, it is important to fully evaluate the extent and characteristics of anthropogenic disturbances in shaping the population distribution and habitat preferences of the giant panda and other wildlife to enhance the efficacy of conservation management practices.     

Traffic Experiment Reveals the Nature of Car-Following

As a typical self-driven many-particle system far from equilibrium, traffic flow exhibits diverse fascinating non-equilibrium phenomena, most of which are closely related to traffic flow stability and specifically the growth/dissipation pattern of disturbances. However, the traffic theories have been controversial due to a lack of precise traffic data. We have studied traffic flow from a new perspective by carrying out large-scale car-following experiment on an open road section, which overcomes the intrinsic deficiency of empirical observations. The experiment has shown clearly the nature of car-following, which runs against the traditional traffic flow theory. Simulations show that by removing the fundamental notion in the traditional car-following models and allowing the traffic state to span a two-dimensional region in velocity-spacing plane, the growth pattern of disturbances has changed qualitatively and becomes qualitatively or even quantitatively in consistent with that observed in the experiment.     

Influence of submucous septal resection on facial growth in the rat.

Submucous septal resections in young rats caused severe retardation of growth in the upper facial skeleton. These growth disturbances occurred regardless of whether the resections included both the cartilaginous septum and the corresponding mucoperichondrium, or only the cartilaginous septum. The degree of growth disturbance depends on the age when the resections are done.     

Yeast SCP from ethanol: Measurements,modeling, and parameter estimatin in a batch system

The production of single-cell protein (SCP) from ethanol by different imcroorganisms is briefly reviewed. The trends in modeling the SCP production are outlined with a stress on the need to incorporate metabolic and engineering considerations into the pertinent models. Data on batch yeast growth on ethanol are analyzed, a metabolic model involving design parameters is suggested, parameters values are estimated, and their significance is discussed. The model essentially describes the response of a system to disturbances (substrate, metabolites, oxygen, etc.). An effective numerical integration procedure is necessary in the solution of the model which has “stiff” character.     

Understanding seagrass resilience in temperate systems: the importance of timing of the disturbance

Temperate seagrass meadows form valuable ecosystems in coastal environments and present a distinct seasonal growth. They are threatened by an increasing amount of stressors, potentially affecting their capacity to recover from disturbances. We hypothesized that their resilience to disturbances is affected by seasonal dynamics. Hence, we investigated the effect of the timing of the disturbance on seagrass Leaf Area Index (as a proxy for presence, or ‘visible’ status), recovery from disturbance (as a proxy for meadow resilience), and rhizome carbohydrates (as a proxy for longer term resilience) by a series of four disturbance-recovery field experiments spread over the growing season at two sites in Shandong Province, China. During the course of the growing season, we found the highest recovery at the start of the growing season, lowest recovery when Leaf Area Index peaked around mid-growing season, and intermediate recovery when Leaf Area Index decreased at the end of the growing season. Rhizome carbohydrates were not affected by disturbances during any of the four experimental periods and could not explain the low recovery during mid-growing season. The two sites differed in exposure and in the occurrence of incidents like a green tide and storms, which affected recovery. However, general patterns were similar; timing strongly influenced the indicator of meadow resilience and its correlation with presence during the two main seagrass growth phases. Our results emphasize the importance of carefully considering timing in the evaluation of seagrass resilience in temperate systems. Furthermore, our study implies that, to effectively protect seagrass beds, conservation management should aim at avoiding disturbances particularly during the peak of the growing season, when resilience is lowest.     

Intermediate Coupling between Aboveground and Belowground Biomass Maximises the Persistence of Grasslands

Aboveground and belowground biomass compartments of vegetation fulfil different functions and they are coupled by complex interactions. These compartments exchange water, carbon and nutrients and the belowground biomass compartment has the capacity to buffer vegetation dynamics when aboveground biomass is removed by disturbances such as herbivory or fire. However, despite their importance, root-shoot interactions are often ignored in more heuristic vegetation models. Here, we present a simple two-compartment grassland model that couples aboveground and belowground biomass. In this model, the growth of belowground biomass is influenced by aboveground biomass and the growth of aboveground biomass is influenced by belowground biomass. We used the model to explore how the dynamics of a grassland ecosystem are influenced by fire and grazing. We show that the grassland system is most persistent at intermediate levels of aboveground-belowground coupling. In this situation, the system can sustain more extreme fire or grazing regimes than in the case of strong coupling. In contrast, the productivity of the system is maximised at high levels of coupling. Our analysis suggests that the yield of a grassland ecosystem is maximised when coupling is strong, however, the intensity of disturbance that can be sustained increases dramatically when coupling is intermediate. Hence, the model predicts that intermediate coupling should be selected for as it maximises the chances of persistence in disturbance driven ecosystems.     

Disturbance induces the contrasting evolution of reinforcement and dispersiveness in directed and random movers

Spatial models commonly assume that dispersal rates are constant across individuals and environments and that movement directions are unbiased. These random-movement assumptions are inadequate to capture the range of dispersal behaviors revealed in diverse case studies. We examine an alternative assumption of directed movement, in which dispersal is a conditional and directional response by individuals to varying environmental conditions. Specifically, we assume individuals bias their movements to climb spatial fitness gradients. We compare the consequences of random and directed movement for local adaptation, the evolution of dispersal, and the reinforcement process. The implications of each movement strategy depend on the nature of environmental disturbance, and we examine the outcomes for undisturbed environments and with uncorrelated and autocorrelated disturbances. Both movement strategies offer advantages over sedentary life histories by allowing colonization of suitable habitats. However, random movement eventually becomes costly in stable environments because it inhibits local adaptation. In contrast, directed movement accelerates local adaptation. In disturbed environments, random movement offers bet-spreading advantages by distributing offspring across habitats. Despite being a more targeted strategy, an intermediate amount of directed movement provides similar bet-spreading benefits. These fitness consequences have implications for the evolution of dispersal. Dispersiveness is lost by random movers in undisturbed environments, is maintained in polymorphism with infrequent disturbances, and evolves when disturbances are uncorrelated. Directed movement becomes selectively neutral in the absence of disturbance, evolves when disturbances are autocorrelated, and is maintained in polymorphism with uncorrelated disturbances. Disturbance also determines the outcome of the reinforcement process for each strategy. For example, directed movers show no progress toward reinforcement in undisturbed environments, evolve random mating with uncorrelated disturbances, and can evolve assortative mating in infrequently disturbed environments.     

Sheltered from the storm? Population viability analysis of a rare endemic under periodic catastrophe regimes

Rare species are important targets for biodiversity conservation efforts because rarity often equates to small populations and increased endangerment. Rare species are prone to stochastic extinction events and may be particularly susceptible to catastrophes. Therefore, understanding how rare species respond to disturbances is critical for evaluating extinction risk and guiding conservation managers. Population viability analyses (PVAs) are essential for assessing rare species' status yet they seldom consider catastrophic events. Accordingly, we present a PVA of a rare tropical epiphyte, Lepanthes caritensis (Orchidaceae), under simulated disturbance regimes to evaluate its demographics and extinction risk. We aimed to test how demographic models incorporating catastrophes affect population viability estimates. Our goal was to better guide management of these orchids and other rare plants. Results revealed L. caritensis numbers have declined recently, but projected growth rates indicated that most subpopulations should increase in size if undisturbed. Still, projection models show that moderate catastrophes reduce growth rates, increase stochasticity in subpopulation sizes, and elevate extinction risk. Severe catastrophes had a more pronounced effect in simulations; growth rates fell below replacement level, there was greater variation in projected population sizes, and extinction risk was significantly higher. PVAs incorporating periodic catastrophes indicate that rare species may have greater extinction probabilities than standard models suggest. Thus, precautionary conservation measures should be taken in disturbance prone settings and we encourage careful monitoring after environmental catastrophes. Future rare plant PVAs should incorporate catastrophes and aim to determine if rescue and reintroduction efforts are necessary after disturbances to insure long-term population viability.     

Analysis of interference in quasi-holographic neuronal models of memory]

Three-layer models with neural plasticity are considered. The weights of connections have both positive and negative values, which are chosen randomly with equal probability. The connections are symmetric relative to the layer of associative neurons. The models describe processes analogous to holographic ones, and the basic properties of the models correspond to the properties of brain memory. The random choice of weights providing the noncorrelatedness of separate recordings gives rise to disturbances. It was shown that in passing from a full-connected model to non-full-connected and semi-full-connected models, the disturbances increase and limitations arise. The degree of the increase in disturbances depends upon the type of the model, the methods of recording and methods of the use of the models, and the mechanisms of the origination of disturbances.     

Disturbed nonlinear multispecies models in ecology.

We analyze a disturbed form of the general Lotka-Volterra model of an ecosystem with m interacting species. The disturbances act on the intrinsic growth rates of the species and are assumed to be bounded but otherwise unknown. We employ a Lyapunov technique and the concept of "reachable set" from control theory to estimate the set of all possible population densities that are attainable as a result of the disturbances. To calculate estimates for this reachable set, a number of numerical methods that entail the solution to one or more global optimization problems are developed. Specific examples involving two, three, and four species are solved. We also derive an explicit analytical expression that represents an estimate for the reachable set in the m-dimensional case. The estimate is conservative but can be evaluated without carrying out any optimization procedure. We show that methods developed in this paper can be applied to certain other types of nonlinear ecosystem models.     

Using Light-Use and Production Efficiency Models to Predict Photosynthesis and Net Carbon Exchange During Forest Canopy Disturbance

Vegetation growth models are used with remotely sensed and meteorological data to monitor terrestrial carbon dynamics at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Many of these models are based on a light-use efficiency equation and two-component model of whole-plant growth and maintenance respiration that have been parameterized for distinct vegetation types and biomes. This study was designed to assess the robustness of these parameters for predicting interannual plant growth and carbon exchange, and more specifically to address inconsistencies that may arise during forest disturbances and the loss of canopy foliage. A model based on the MODIS MOD17 algorithm was parameterized for a mature upland hardwood forest by inverting CO₂ flux tower observations during years when the canopy was not disturbed. This model was used to make predictions during a year when the canopy was 37% defoliated by forest tent caterpillars. Predictions improved after algorithms were modified to scale for the effects of diffuse radiation and loss of leaf area. Photosynthesis and respiration model parameters were found to be robust at daily and annual time scales regardless of canopy disturbance, and differences between modeled net ecosystem production and tower net ecosystem exchange were only approximately 2 g C m⁻² d⁻¹ and less than 23 g C m⁻² y⁻¹. Canopy disturbance events such as insect defoliations are common in temperate forests of North America, and failure to account for cyclical outbreaks of forest tent caterpillars in this stand could add an uncertainty of approximately 4–13% in long-term predictions of carbon sequestration.