Utility of island populations in re‐introduction programmes – relationships between Arabian gazelles (Gazella arabica) from the Farasan Archipelago and endangered mainland populations

Understanding local adaptation and population differentiation is vital to the success of re‐introduction initiatives. As other mammals living on islands, Arabian gazelles (G. arabica) show reduced body size on the Farasan archipelago, which we corroborated in this study through morphometric analyses of skulls. In the light of the steep population decline on the Arabian Peninsula – but stable population development on the archipelago – we tested the potential suitability of Farasan gazelles as a source for re‐introductions on the mainland. We therefore investigated genetic differentiation between Farasan and mainland populations using eleven nuclear microsatellite loci and detected a distinct genetic cluster exclusively present on the archipelago, which we inferred to be separated from the mainland cluster for less than 2000 years. About 30% of sampled individuals from Farasan Islands showed assignment to a mainland cluster with signs of ongoing introgression. Analyses using the isolation‐with‐migration model confirmed recent (probably human‐induced) bidirectional exchange of gazelles between mainland and island populations. Hence, the surprisingly uniform island dwarfism most likely reflects phenotypic plasticity, that is, altered morphology as a direct consequence of harsh environmental conditions and resource limitation on the archipelago. Should a further decline of Arabian gazelles on the mainland necessitate restocking in the future, Farasan gazelles may thus become an additional source for captive breeding programmes.     

Trend changes in sympatric Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seal pup populations at Marion Island,Southern Ocean

Recent pup population estimates of sympatric Subantarctic (Arctocephalus tropicalis) and Antarctic fur seals (A. gazella) at Marion Island are presented. Published pup population estimates of A. tropicalis (1995 and 2004) with an unpublished total island count in 2013, and annual counts on subsets of rookeries (2007–2015) were analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian model. The pup population declined by 46% (95% credible interval CI: 43%–48%) between 2004 (mean = 15,260, CI: 14,447–16,169 pups) and 2013 (mean = 8,312, CI: 7,983–8,697), mirrored by a 58%–60% decline at rookeries counted annually (2007–2015). Population decline was highest at high‐density west and north coast rookeries, despite negligible change in female attendance patterns, pup mortality or median pupping date over the previous 25 yr. A better understanding of foraging behavior and its effects on reproductive success and survival in this A. tropicalis population is needed before we can attribute population decline to any external factors. In contrast, total island counts of A. gazella pups in 2007, 2010, and 2013, suggest that this population is still increasing although the annual intrinsic rate of population growth decreased from 17.0% (1995–2004, 744 pups) to 4.0% (2010–2013, 1,553 pups). The slowed growth of A. gazella is likely the result of saturation at the main rookery.     

Just another island dwarf? Phenotypic distinctiveness in the poorly known Soemmerring's Gazelle,Nanger soemmerringii (Cetartiodactyla: Bovidae), of Dahlak Kebir Island

The gazelles of Dahlak Kebir are the only population of Nanger soemmerringii Cretzschmar, 1828 living on an island. Little is known on the biology of these animals, except that they are evidently smaller than their conspecifics living on the continent. We took advantage of a recently acquired collection of crania, probably the largest available study sample of the Dahlak Kebir population worldwide, to explore the phenotypic variation of this island endemism. To this aim, we employed state of the art geometric morphometrics techniques and multivariate statistics to compare the insular population with samples of two out of three subspecies of N. soemmerringii from continental Africa. We found that not only is the size of the animal remarkably smaller in Dahlak Kebir gazelles, but their cranial shape is also highly distinctive, and this might be only partly explained by allometry. We also showed that phenotypic variance might have been reduced in the island population, likely as a consequence of genetic bottlenecks. This unique population is part of a species vulnerable to extinction. Our results suggest that the Dahlak Kebir Island gazelles might represent a significant component of its variation and potential for adaptive change and evolution. More information, including molecular data, and an accurate assessment of its taxonomic relevance and conservation status, is urgently needed. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 111 , 603–620.     

The use of block counts,mark-resight and distance sampling to estimate population size of a mountain-dwelling ungulate

Population size estimates represent indispensable tools for many research programs and for conservation or management issues. Mountain ungulates in open areas are often surveyed through ground counts that normally underestimate population size. While the use of sample counts is desirable, few studies have compared different probabilistic approaches to estimate population size in this taxon. We compared the size estimates of a male population of Alpine chamois using mark-resight and line transect sampling methods, while block counts were used to obtain the minimum number of males alive in the study area. Surveys were conducted within the Gran Paradiso National Park (Italy), in August–September 2013, using block counts along purposely selected trails and vantage points, mark-resight over 5 consecutive resightings from vantage points and trails, and line transect sampling along 12 transects repeated 8 times. Block counts yielded a minimum number of males alive in the population of n = 72 individuals. This value was greater than the upper bound of the 95 % confidence interval achieved using line transect sampling {n = 54, CV = 14 % [95 % CI (40, 71)]} while mark-resight yielded a more realistic result of n = 93 individuals {CV = 18 % [95 % CI (63, 137)]}. Our results suggest that line transect sampling performed poorly in the Alpine environment, leading to underestimates of population size, likely due to violations of some assumptions imposed by the rugged nature of the terrain. The mark-resight yielded lower precision, possibly due to the limited number of marked individuals and resighting occasions, but it provided robustness and accurate estimates as marks were evenly distributed among animals.     

Monitoring of the Flat-Tailed Horned Lizard With Methods Incorporating Detection Probability

Abstract: Difficulty in monitoring the flat-tailed horned lizard (Phrynosoma mcallii) has led to controversy over its conservation status. The difficulty in detecting this species has discouraged large-scale estimates of abundance and led to uncertainty over whether the species exists in population sizes of sufficient size for long-term persistence. We incorporated detection probability into monitoring of this species using closed mark—recapture and distance-sampling methods. Density estimation from mark—recapture abundance estimates was improved using an estimate of the proportion of time lizards were on the plot. We estimated the probability of detection on the line for distance sampling and adjusted density estimates accordingly. We estimated the populations of the Yuha Basin Management Area in 2002 and the East Mesa Management Area, Imperial County, California, USA, in 2003 to be 25,514 (95% CI 14,444-38,970) and 42,619 (95% CI 23,161-67,639), respectively. Two estimates of detection probability on the line in distance sampling by different methods were 0.45 and 0.65. Density estimates derived from distance analyses for 3 East Mesa Management Area plots and the Yuha Basin Management Area were 1.55 per ha (95% CI 0.64-3.76) and 0.41 per ha (95% CI 0.22-0.7), respectively. These are the first large-scale estimates of abundance and density for P. mcallii.     

Evaluating Survey Methods for Monitoring a Rare Vertebrate,the Sonoran Desert Tortoise

Abstract: Effective conservation requires strategies to monitor populations efficiently, which can be especially difficult for rare or elusive species where field surveys require high effort and considerable cost. Populations of many reptiles, including Sonoran desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii), are challenging to monitor effectively because they are cryptic, they occur at low densities, and their activity is limited both seasonally and daily. We compared efficiency and statistical power of 2 survey methods appropriate for tortoises and other rare vertebrates, line-transect distance sampling and site occupancy. In 2005 and 2006 combined, we surveyed 120 1-km transects to estimate density and 40 3-ha plots 5 times each to estimate occupancy of Sonoran desert tortoises in 2 mountain ranges in southern Arizona, USA. For both mountain ranges combined, we estimated density to be 0.30 adult tortoises/ha (95% CI = 0.17–0.43) and occupancy to be 0.72 (95% CI = 0.56–0.89). For the sampling designs we evaluated, monitoring efforts based on occupancy were 8–36% more efficient than those based on density, when contrasting only survey effort, and 17–30% more efficient when contrasting total effort (surveying, hiking to and from survey locations, and radiotracking). Occupancy had greater statistical power to detect annual declines in the proportion of area occupied than did distance sampling to detect annual declines in density. For example, we estimated that power to detect a 5% annual decline with 10 years of annual sampling was 0.92 (95% CI = 0.75–0.98) for occupancy and 0.43 (95% CI = 0.35–0.52) for distance sampling. Although all sampling methods have limitations, occupancy estimation offers a promising alternative for monitoring populations of rare vertebrates, including tortoises in the Sonoran Desert.     

四川石渠县夏季藏原羚的分布和栖息地特征

藏原羚 (Procaprapicticaudata)是青藏高原特有的有蹄类动物之一。在 2 0世纪 80年代以前 ,藏原羚的分布较广、数量较多 ,其游牧习性有利于草场植被的持续稳定 ,在青藏高原的草原生态系统中占据着十分重要的生态地位 (Schaller,1998;尹秉高和刘务林 ,1993)。然而 ,由于人类活动的增多直接导致其栖息地的退化 ,同时掠夺式的过度猎杀使这一重要物种的分布区正在不断缩小 ,数量也在急剧减少 (Schaller,1998;朴仁珠和刘务林 ,1993;刘永生 ,1988;毕俊怀和凤凌飞 ,1999) ,如在西藏 ,从 2 0世纪 80年代后期至 90年代中后期约十年的时间 ,藏原羚的…     

Serosurveillance for foot-and-mouth disease in Mongolian gazelles (Procapra gutturosa) and livestock on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious, viral disease that affects most ruminant and porcine species, and periodic outbreaks on Mongolia's Eastern Steppe affect Mongolian gazelles (Procapra gutturosa) and livestock. During 2005-08, we collected sera from 36 and 57 calf and adult gazelles, respectively, and from adult domestic animals sympatric with the gazelles, including 138 sheep (Ovis aries), 140 goats (Capra aegagrus hircus), 139 Bactrian camels (Camelus bactrianus), and 138 cattle (Bos taurus). Our goal was to determine whether the prevalence of the antibody to foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in gazelles declined relative to previous estimates in the absence of FMD outbreaks. Overall, 2.0% (95% CI 0.7-3.3%, n=555) of the four livestock species were antibody-positive for nonstructural proteins of FMDV (FMDV-NS), whereas 30.3% (95% CI 26.5-34.1%, n=555) had antibodies for structural proteins (i.e., vaccination-derived antibodies). Seven of 57 free-ranging gazelle calves (7.5%, 95%CI 1.6-12.4%) were FMDV-NS positive. None of 36 adult gazelles sampled in 2008 were antibody-positive for exposure to FMDV, indicating a significant decline (χ(2)=18.99; P<0.001; df=1) in antibody prevalence among gazelles from the same area during a livestock outbreak in 2001. The episodic nature of FMD outbreaks on the Eastern Steppe, Mongolia, with evidence of FMDV exposure in gazelles only during or following concurrent outbreaks in livestock, suggests that FMDV may spill over into the gazelle population during livestock outbreaks and that successful control of FMD on the Eastern Steppe requires a focus on control in livestock populations through vaccination.     

Using distance sampling and hierarchical models to improve estimates of Dall's sheep abundance

Management of large mammal populations has often been based on aerial minimum count surveys that are uncorrected for incomplete detection and lack estimates of precision. These limitations can be particularly problematic for Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) due to the high cost of surveys and variation in detection probability across time and space. The limitations of these methods have been recognized for some time, but previously proposed alternatives for sheep surveys proved to be too costly and logistically unfeasible in most circumstances (Udevitz et al. 2006). We assessed the potential for a combination of distance sampling surveys and a hierarchical modeling approach to provide a more efficient means for estimating Dall's sheep abundance by conducting aerial contour transect surveys over all sheep habitat in Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve (GAAR), Alaska in 2009 and 2010. We estimated the population of Dall's sheep was 8,412 (95% CI: 6,517–11,090) and 10,072 (95% CI 8,081–12,520) in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Abundance within the Itkillik Preserve area within GAAR was 1,898 (95% CI: 1,421–2,578) and 1,854 (95% CI: 1,342–2,488) in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Estimates of lamb abundance in 2010 were more than double those of 2009 after correcting for detection bias related to group size, suggesting that the apparent estimate of lambs in the population may be biased in some years depending on the degree of aggregation. Overall, the contour transect surveys were feasible logistically, cost 70–80% less than minimum count surveys, and produced precise estimates of abundance, indicating that the application of these methods could be used effectively to increase the statistical rigor and spatial extent of Dall's sheep abundance surveys throughout Alaska. These methods could be used to improve the assessment of long-term trends in populations and productivity and provide valuable information for harvest management at both local and landscape scales at reduced costs in comparison to traditional minimum count surveys. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

道路交通对鹅喉羚昼间集群特征和警戒行为的影响

分析道路交通对濒危有蹄类动物行为模式的影响,阐明其行为反馈与适应机制,对制定道路工程干扰下濒危物种的保护方案具有重要意义。2015年和2016年6—8月,调查了国道216线白昼运营对新疆卡拉麦里山有蹄类野生动物自然保护区鹅喉羚(Gazella subgutturosa)集群特征和警戒行为的影响。研究发现,国道216线的扰动导致鹅喉羚集群规模显著增加;随着距国道216线距离越近,鹅喉羚警戒行为投入时间越多,距离道路500m可能是国道216线对鹅喉羚集群和警戒行为影响的阈值。本研究结果表明,道路带来的人为干扰与捕食风险相似,迫使鹅喉羚调节其集群规模和警戒水平。未来应加强道路等交通工程影响下保护区内野生动物的行为反馈和适应机制研究,据此提出减缓措施,降低道路对野生动物的负面影响。     

Using time‐of‐detection to evaluate detectability assumptions in temporally replicated aural count indices: an example with Ring‐necked Pheasants

ABSTRACT The validity of treating counts as indices to abundance is based on the assumption that the expected detection probability, E(p), is constant over time or comparison groups or, more realistically, that variation in p is small relative to variation in population size that investigators seek to detect. Unfortunately, reliable estimates of E(p) and var(p) are lacking for most index methods. As a case study, we applied the time‐of‐detection method to temporally replicated (within season) aural counts of crowing male Ring‐necked Pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) at 18 sites in southern Minnesota in 2007 to evaluate the detectability assumptions. More specifically, we used the time‐of‐detection method to estimate E(p) and var(p), and then used these estimates in a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate bias‐variance tradeoffs associated with adjusting count indices for imperfect detection. The estimated mean detection probability in our case study was 0.533 (SE = 0.030) and estimated spatial variation in E(p) was 0.081 (95% CI: 0.057–0.126). On average, both adjusted (for) and unadjusted counts of crowing males qualitatively described the simulated relationship between pheasant abundance and grassland abundance, but the bias‐variance tradeoff was smaller for adjusted counts (MSE = 0.003 vs. 0.045, respectively). Our case study supports the general recommendation to use, whenever feasible, formal population‐estimation procedures (e.g., mark‐recapture, distance sampling, double sampling) to account for imperfect detection. However, we caution that interpreting estimates of absolute abundance can be complicated, even if formal estimation methods are used. For example, the time‐of‐detection method was useful for evaluating detectability assumptions in our case study and the method could be used to adjust aural count indices for imperfect detection. Conversely, using the time‐of‐detection method to estimate absolute abundances in our case study was problematic because the biological populations and sampling coverage could not be clearly delineated. These estimation and inference challenges may also be important in other avian surveys that involve mobile species (whose home ranges may overlap several sampling sites), temporally replicated counts, and inexact sampling coverage.     

Wild Gazelles of the Southern Levant: Genetic Profiling Defines New Conservation Priorities

The mountain gazelle (Gazella gazelle), Dorcas gazelle (Gazella Dorcas) and acacia gazelle (Gazella arabica acacia) were historically abundant in the southern Levant, and more specifically in Israel. Anthropogenic and natural changes have caused a rapid decline in gazelle populations, raising concerns about their conservation status and future survival. The genetic profile of 111 wild gazelles from Israel was determined based on three regions of mitochondrial DNA (control region, Cytochrome b and 12S ribosomal RNA) and nine nuclear microsatellite markers. Genetic analysis of the mountain gazelle population, the largest known population of this rare species, revealed adequate diversity levels and gene flow between subpopulations. Nevertheless, ongoing habitat degradation and other human effects, such as poaching, suggest the need for drastic measures to prevent species extinction. Dorcas gazelles in Israel displayed inbreeding within subpopulations while still maintaining considerable genetic diversity overall. This stable population, represented by a distinctive genetic profile, is fragmented and isolated from its relatives in neighboring localities. Based on the genetic profile of a newly sampled subpopulation in Israel, we provide an alternative hypothesis for the historic dispersal of Dorcas gazelle, from the Southern Levant to northern Africa. The small acacia gazelle population was closest to gazelles from the Farasan Islands of Saudi Arabia, based on mitochondrial markers. The two populations did not share haplotypes, suggesting that these two populations may be the last remnant wild gazelles of this species worldwide. Only a dozen acacia gazelles survive in Israel, and urgent steps are needed to ensure the survival of this genetically distinctive lineage. The genetic assessments of our study recognize new conservation priorities for each gazelle species in the Southern Levant.     

Challenges and opportunities for estimating abundance of a low-density moose population

Monitoring large herbivores across their core range has been readily accomplished using aerial surveys and traditional distance sampling. But for peripheral populations, where individuals may occur in patchy, low-density populations, precise estimation of population size and trend remains logistically and statistically challenging. For moose (Alces alces) along their southern range margin in northern New York, USA, we sought robust estimates of moose distribution, abundance, and population trend (2016–2019) using a combination of aerial surveys (line transect distance-sampling), repeated surveys in areas where moose were known to occur to boost the number of detections, and density surface modeling (DSM) with spatial covariates. We achieved a precise estimate of density (95% CI = 0.00–0.29 moose/km²) for this small population (656 moose, 95% CI = 501–859), which was patchily distributed across a large and heavily forested region (the 24,280-km² Adirondack Park). Local moose abundance was positively related to active timber management, elevation, and snow cover, and negatively related to large bodies of water. As expected, moose abundance in this peripheral population was low relative to its core range in other northern forest states. Yet, in areas where abundance was greatest, moose densities in New York approached those where epizootics of winter tick (Dermacentor albipictus) have been reported, underscoring the need for effective and efficient monitoring. By incorporating autocorrelation in observations and landscape covariates, DSM provided spatially explicit estimates of moose density with greater precision and no additional field effort over traditional distance sampling. Combined with repeated surveys of areas with known moose occurrence to achieve viable sample sizes, DSM is a useful tool for effectively monitoring low density and patchy populations.     

Demystifying the Sundarban tiger: novel application of conventional population estimation methods in a unique ecosystem

Conserving large populations with unique adaptations is essential for minimizing extinction risks. Sundarban mangroves (>10,000 km²) are the only mangrove inhabited by tigers. Baseline information about this tiger population is lacking due to its man-eating reputation and logistic difficulties of sampling. Herein, we adapt photographic capture-mark-recapture (CMR) and distance sampling to estimate tiger and prey densities. We placed baited camera stations in a typical mangrove in 2010 and 2012. We used telemetry based tiger home-range radius (5.73 km, SE 0.72 km) to estimate effective trapping area (ETA). An effort of 407 and 1073 trap nights were exerted to photocapture 10 and 22 unique tigers in 2010 and 2012. We accounted for use of bait by modelling behaviour and heterogeneity effects in program MARK and secr package in program R. Using traditional CMR, tiger number was estimated at 11 (SE 2) and density at 4.07 (SE range 3.09–5.17) in 2010 while in 2012, tiger number was 24 (SE 3) and density 4.63 (SE range 3.92–5.40) tigers/100 km². With likelihood based spatially explicit CMR, tiger densities were estimated at 4.08 (SE 1.51) in 2010 and 5.81 (SE 1.24) tigers/100 km² in 2012. Using distance sampling along water channels, we estimated chital density at 5.24/km², SE 1.23 which could potentially support 4.68 tigers/100 km² [95 % CI (3.92, 5.57)]. Our estimates suggest that Sundarban tiger population is one of the largest in the world and therefore merits high conservation status.     

Combining Breeding Bird Survey and Christmas Bird Count Data to Evaluate Seasonal Components of Population Change in Northern Bobwhite

Abstract Annual surveys of wildlife populations provide information about annual rates of change in populations but provide no information about when such changes occur. However, by combining data from 2 annual surveys, conducted in different parts of the year, seasonal components of population change can be estimated. We describe a hierarchical model for simultaneous analysis of 2 continent-scale monitoring programs. The Christmas Bird Count is an early winter survey, whereas the North American Breeding Bird Survey is conducted in June. Combining information from these surveys permits estimation of seasonal population variance components and improves estimation of long-term population trends. The composite analysis also controls for survey-specific sampling effects. We applied the model to estimation of population change in northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). Over the interval 1969–2004, bobwhite populations declined, with trend estimate of −3.56% per year (95% CI = [−3.80%, −3.32%]) in the surveyed portion of their range. Our analysis of seasonal population variance components indicated that northern bobwhite populations changed more in the winter and spring portion of the year than in the summer and fall portion of the year. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(1):44–51; 2008)     

Estimating density of Kirk’s dik‐dik (Madoqua kirkii Günther), impala (Aepyceros melampus Lichtenstein) and common zebra (Equus burchelli Gray) at Mpala,Laikipia District,Kenya

This study compares two methods of estimating the density of three ungulate species: Kirk’s dik‐dik, impala and common zebra, in a dry savannah ecosystem. Fixed strip width and distance sampling involving direct animal counts were used in parallel, and tested for bias and precision in two habitats. Distance sampling was the method that achieved a better balance between accuracy and precision. The differences in sightability of ungulates, according to body size, colour and habitat characteristics, are taken into account by the distance sampling method, but not by the strip method, which produced, what we suspect are, underestimates of animal density.     

Encounter Rates From Road-Based Surveys of Rio Grande Wild Turkeys in Texas

ABSTRACT Traditional index-based techniques have indicated declines in Rio Grande wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo intermedia; hereafter, wild turkey) populations across much of Texas, USA. However, population indices can be unreliable. Research has indicated that road-based surveys may be an efficacious technique for monitoring wild turkey populations on an ecoregion level. Therefore, our goal was to evaluate applicability of road-based distance sampling in the Cross Timbers, Edwards Plateau, Rolling Plains, and South Texas ecoregions of Texas. We conducted road-based surveys in each ecoregion during December 2007—March 2008 to estimate wild turkey flock encounter rates and to determine survey effort (i.e., km of roads) required to obtain adequate sample sizes for distance sampling in each ecoregion. With simulations using inflatable turkey decoys, we also evaluated effects of distance to a flock, flock size, and vegetative cover on turkey flock detectability. Encounter rates of wild turkey flocks from road-based surveys varied from 0.1 (95% CI = 0.0–0.6) to 2.2 (95% CI = 0.8–6.0) flocks/100 km surveyed. Encounter rates from surveys restricted to riparian communities (i.e., areas ≤1 km from a river or stream) varied from 0.2 (95% CI = 0.1–0.6) to 2.9 (95% CI = 1.5–6.7) flocks/100 km surveyed. Flock detection probabilities from field simulations ranged from 22.5% (95% CI = 16.3–29.8%) to 25.0% (95% CI = 13.6–39.6%). Flock detection probabilities were lower than expected in all 4 ecoregions, which resulted in low encounter rates. Estimated survey effort required to obtain adequate sample sizes for distance sampling ranged from 2,765 km (95% CI = 2,597–2,956 km) in the Edwards Plateau to 37,153 km (95% CI = 12,861–107,329 km) in South Texas. When we restricted road-based surveys to riparian communities, estimated survey effort ranged from 2,222 km (95% CI = 2,092–2,370 km) in the Edwards Plateau to 22,222 km (95% CI = 19,782–25,349 km) in South Texas.     

Evaluation of aerial sampling methods for detecting waterbird colonies

ABSTRACT Estimating the number of waterbird colonies in a given area can have important conservation implications, including assessment of the regional or global importance of an area and the impacts of conservation efforts (e.g., habitat restoration) and human disturbance (e.g., oil spills). Our objective was to examine differences in estimates of the number of waterbird colonies determined using strip‐transect (ST) surveys, distance sampling, and adaptive cluster sampling (ACS), and to compare these estimates to the minimum number of known colonies (MNKC) obtained using point‐to‐point surveys. We conducted aerial surveys in May 2004 and May and June 2005 at two sites in southern Louisiana: the Atchafalaya Basin (AB), a large forested wetland, and the Barataria‐Terrebonne estuary (BTE), a large coastal marsh with isolated clumps of woody vegetation suitable for nesting. In AB, we detected nine and eight colonies using the ACS and ST/distance sampling methods, respectively. Neither ACS estimator of number of colonies (Horvitz–Thompson and Hansen–Hurwitz) was within the 95% confidence interval of the estimate determined from ST; ST estimated—two to three times more colonies than either ACS estimator. The MNKC for the AB was 33, well within the 95% confidence interval of ? by ST sampling. For the BTE, ACS estimators (?_HT= 20.49, CI = 9.3–31.7; ?_HH= 14.15, CI = 2.3–26.0) were similar to the MNKC (20), whereas the ST (?= 87.94, CI = 82.9–92.9) and distance sampling (?= 60, CI = 31–113) methods produced much larger estimates. Our results suggest that the ACS method performed better when waterbird colonies were spatially clumped (BTE) and the ST method performed better in areas where colonies were more uniformly distributed (AB). Depending on management objectives, a complete, systematic survey of a study area may be required if the potential for missing large colonies is unacceptable. If surveying an area with no previous information about colony location or dispersion, we recommend a coarse‐scale analysis of the availability and contiguity of habitat likely to contain waterbird colonies; this analysis will help determine the most appropriate survey method.     

Statistical Efficiency in Distance Sampling

Distance sampling is a technique for estimating the abundance of animals or other objects in a region, allowing for imperfect detection. This paper evaluates the statistical efficiency of the method when its assumptions are met, both theoretically and by simulation. The theoretical component of the paper is a derivation of the asymptotic variance penalty for the distance sampling estimator arising from uncertainty about the unknown detection parameters. This asymptotic penalty factor is tabulated for several detection functions. It is typically at least 2 but can be much higher, particularly for steeply declining detection rates. The asymptotic result relies on a model which makes the strong assumption that objects are uniformly distributed across the region. The simulation study relaxes this assumption by incorporating over-dispersion when generating object locations. Distance sampling and strip transect estimators are calculated for simulated data, for a variety of overdispersion factors, detection functions, sample sizes and strip widths. The simulation results confirm the theoretical asymptotic penalty in the non-overdispersed case. For a more realistic overdispersion factor of 2, distance sampling estimation outperforms strip transect estimation when a half-normal distance function is correctly assumed, confirming previous literature. When the hazard rate model is correctly assumed, strip transect estimators have lower mean squared error than the usual distance sampling estimator when the strip width is close enough to its optimal value (± 75% when there are 100 detections; ± 50% when there are 200 detections). Whether the ecologist can set the strip width sufficiently accurately will depend on the circumstances of each particular study.     

Environmental and Animal Characteristics as Factors Associated with American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Rural Locations with Presence of Dogs,Brazil

The aim of the study was to investigate the importance of dogs, other domesticated animals and environmental characteristics as risk factors in the epidemiology of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL). A retrospective survey of cases of human ACL in the last ten years and visits to homes in rural locations were carried out in the municipality of Arapongas (southern Brazil) from 2008 to 2010. ACL in humans was significantly associated with a distance of up to 25 meters from the residence to a forest area (OR 5.08; 95% CI: 1.35–21.04), undergrowth area (OR 6.80; 95% CI: 1.69–45.33) and stream (OR 5.87; 95% CI: 1.15–24.59); banana plants near the residence (OR 5.98; 95% CI: 1.49–39.84), absence of ceiling below the roof in the residence (OR 7.30; 95% CI: 1.26–158.1), the dumping of trash in the forest area (OR 26.33; 95% CI: 7.32–93.46) and presence of ACL in dogs in the surrounding area (OR 4.39; 95% CI: 1.37–13.45). In dogs, ACL was associated with a distance of 25 to 50 meters and 51 to 100 meters, respectively, from the residence to a forest area (OR 2.59; 95% CI: 1.08–5.98; OR 3.29; 95% CI: 1.64–6.62), the presence of a stream up to 25 m from the residence (OR 6.23; 95% CI: 2.34–16.54) and banana plants near the residence (OR 0.45; 95% CI: 0.25–0.80). In the locations studied in the municipality of Arapongas (Brazil), the results reveal that canine infection increases the risk of human infection by ACL and the characteristics surrounding the residence increase the risk of infection in both humans and dogs. Thus, integrated environmental management could be a useful measure to avoid contact between humans and phlebotomines.