Modelling the potential distribution of the Bridled Skink,Trachylepis vittata (Olivier, 1804), in the Middle East

The Bridled Skink, Trachylepis vittata, is widespread in the Middle East and eastern coastal Mediterranean areas and inhabits foothills throughout the arid regions of the Middle East. With the help of more than 146 distribution records from Iran, Turkey, Syria, Israel, Jordan, Cyprus, Egypt, Lebanon and Libya, we analysed the influence of climate on the distribution pattern. According to the Maximum Entropy model, the most influential factors that determined T. vittata distribution are: precipitation of coldest quarter, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and precipitation in the warmest quarter. The model suggests that the western slopes of the Zagros Mountains in Iran and slopes in the southern regions of Anatolia around the Mediterranean Sea are suitable for this species. The species is associated with areas with intermediate NDVI (150-180) (a measure of primary productivity), high winter precipitation (>300?mm) and dry summer (<50mm). The association with rainy winter limits the presence of the species in lowlands. The Zagros Mountains may act as a biogeographic barrier that limits the species dispersal eastward, because of their scarce precipitation.     

Distribution pattern of the Snake-eyed Lizard,Ophisops elegans Ménétriés, 1832 (Squamata: Lacertidae), in Iran

Ophisops elegans, a common lizard with a wide distribution range in Iran, was selected to investigate the influence of environmental factors on its distribution pattern. Based on a distribution model developed with the software Maxent for O. elegans, the most important factors influencing the distribution pattern were found to be high winter precipitation, intermediate levels of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and intermediate levels of sunshine. It seems that overall plant cover and competition with Mesalina watsonana are the main factors which influence the distribution pattern of O. elegans in the central Iranian Plateau.     

Forecasting the potential distribution of Spodoptera exigua and S. littoralis (Lepidoptera,Noctuidae) in Iran

The beet armyworm, Spodoptera exigua (Hübner, 1808) and the Egyptian cotton leafworm, S. littoralis (Boisduval, 1833), are amongst the most notorious agricultural pest species in Iran. Spodoptera exigua is considered a serious pest of different crops, whereas S. littoralis is known as an important pest of cotton.In this paper, the potential distribution areas of these species in Iran and the important climatic factors affecting their distribution were predicted using the MaxEnt model and the ArcGIS. The results indicate that the main environmental variables contributing to S. exigua’s distribution were precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), average wind speed in April (wind4), and annual precipitation (bio12). Also, minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), altitude and average wind speed in May (wind5) were dominant climatic factors that affected the potential distribution of S. littoralis. These species overlapped in most parts of coastal areas in the southern and northern parts of Iran, with an average overlapping range of 33.2%. Considering their preferred host plants in Iran, it is necessary to strengthen biosurveillance programes and management of these two species in their suitable areas to prevent further invasion, which endangers agricultural security.     

Ecological modeling and distribution analysis of digger scorpions: Odontobuthus doriae,Odonthubutus bidentatus (Scorpiones: Buthidae) and Scorpio maurus (Scorpiones: Scorpionidae) in Iran using the maximum entropy method

Prediction models are essential for the potential geographic distribution of scorpions, prevention of scorpion stings and diverse applications in conservation biology. There is limited information about habitat suitability and the factors affecting the distribution of Iranian digger scorpions. This study was undertaken to model the distribution of three types of digger scorpion in Iran, Odontobuthus doriae Thorell, Odonthubutus bidentatus Lourenco (Scorpiones: Buthidae) and Scorpio maurus Pocockin (Scorpiones: Scorpionidae), and investigate the factors affecting its distribution using the maximum entropy method. A total of 20 environmental and climate variables were used for modeling and evaluation of the ecological niche. The similarities and differences between the ecological overlap of the digger scorpions were evaluated using comparative environmental niche model (ENM Tools software). The results showed that the main factors for habitat suitability of O. doriae were soil type, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and slope. The variables for S. maurus were soil type, precipitation of the coldest quarter and slope. Annual temperature range, mean temperature of the driest quarter and land use had the greatest influence on the distribution of O. bidentatus. The ecological niches for O. doriae and O. bidentatus overlapped. The niche of these species differed from the niche of S. maurus. This approach could be helpful for the prediction of the potential distribution of three digger scorpion species and this model can be an effective for the promotion of health.

     

Environmental suitability for Agrilus auroguttatus (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in Mexico using MaxEnt and database records of four Quercus (Fagaceae) species

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Distribution of carpenter-moths (Lepidoptera, Cossidae) in the Palaearctic deserts

Specific features of the carpenter-moths (Cossidae) distribution in the Palaearctic deserts are considered. The Palaearctic frontier was delimited to the Arabian Peninsula (the eastern and northern parts of Arabia are attributed to the Palaearctic Region; Yemen, southwestern Saudi Arabia, and southernmost Iran belong to the Afrotropical Region). Cossidae are highly endemic to arid areas. Some Palaearctic carpenter-moth genera penetrate to Africa southward of the Sahara Desert (an important characteristic distinguishing them from most of the other Lepidoptera). The local faunas of the Palaearctic deserts are united into 4 groups: the Sahara-Arabian-Southern-Iranian, Central-Asian-Kazakhstanian, Western-Gobian, and Eastern-Gobian. In the Eastern Gobi Desert, the fauna is the most specific; it should be considered as a separate zoogeographical subregion.     

气候变暖背景下春兰和蕙兰的适生区分布预测

为了阐明气候变暖背景下春兰(Cymbidium goeringii)和蕙兰(C. faberi)在我国的适生区分布变化情况,根据157条分布记录和19个生物气候变量,应用最大熵物种分布模型,对2070年4种温室气体排放情景下春兰和蕙兰在我国的适生区分布进行预测,并筛选影响其地理分布的主要气候因子。结果表明:(1)2070年春兰和蕙兰分布点的年均温(bio1)、最冷月最低温度(bio6)和最冷季平均温度(bio11)等均升高,气候有变暖趋势;(2)受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)值在0.9—1.0之间,模型预测结果可信度较高;(3)影响春兰、蕙兰当前和2070年地理分布的限制性气候因子主要有最冷月最低温度(bio6)、最冷季平均温度(bio11)、年均降水量(bio12)和最干月份降水量(bio14);(4)气候变暖将会对春兰和蕙兰的适宜生境范围和面积产生影响。预测2070年春兰的适宜生境面积将会有所减小,而蕙兰的适宜生境面积将会增加,且整体有向北迁移的趋势。研究结果为野生春兰和蕙兰的生态风险评价和引种提供了重要依据。     

Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci in the mosquito Anopheles stephensi Liston (Diptera: Culicidae)

The mosquito Anopheles stephensi is an important malaria vector in India, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Differences in egg morphology and chromosomal characters have been described between urban and rural forms of this mosquito but the population genetic structure remains unclear. In India this species is mainly urban, rural populations are largely zoophilic and not thought to transmit malaria. In eastern Afghanistan and the Punjab and Northwest Frontier Province, Pakistan, it is the major malaria vector. We have developed primers for 16 microsatellite loci to assist in defining the population structure and epidemiological importance of this mosquito.     

唇形科苣叶鼠尾草的新分布及适生分布区预测

在野外调查的基础上,报道了苣叶鼠尾草在贵州和广西的省级新分布.基于苣叶鼠尾草16个分布数据和11个环境因子参数,运用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型对其适生分布区进行预测,并通过受试者工作特征(receiver operat-ing characteristic,ROC)曲线对模型精度进行验证.结果表明:(1)ROC曲线下面...     

Predicting potential distributions of invasive species: the exotic Barbary ground squirrel in the Canarian archipelago and the west Mediterranean region

This contribution aimed to predict the invasive Barbary ground squirrel (Atlantoxerus getulus) potentiality for invading the Canary Islands and western Mediterranean region, by determining firstly the climatic suitable areas in its native range and secondly, using presence data in the invaded range. Nineteen environmental variables submitted to a Principal Components Analysis selected those variables with higher factor loadings, which represent the main environmental conditions of the Northern African region (temperature in the coldest quarter, seasonal temperature, precipitation in the coldest quarter, temperature in the wettest quarter). After selecting hundred times more pseudo-absence points than presence observations (n = 6600 at a 0.083° resolution), Generalized Additive Models and Single-hidden-layer Neural Networks fitted in R were used to calibrate the model. Model results were extrapolated for the Canary Islands and the western Mediterranean region. In order to select between the two techniques, we calculated three accuracy measures (specificity, sensitivity and AUC) after using a Jack-knifing procedure and models were repeated ten times. The GAM model was less accurate than the NN model. Suitable areas did not have mean temperatures in the coldest quarter lower than −5°C and precipitation in the coldest quarter higher than 300 mm, respectively. We predicted favorable climatic areas across almost all the Maghreb, the European western Mediterranean region and in all the Canary Islands. Nevertheless, the seven islands differed significantly in the mean favorability scores, with El Hierro, Lanzarote and Gran Canaria being the most suitable. Same methodological analysis was applied to predict A. getulus distribution in other Canarian islands based on presence data from the invaded Fuerteventura. In this case, only Lanzarote and Gran Canaria appeared to be climatically suitable for the species. Our predictive model is an applicable tool to establish the invasive potential of A. getulus and to prioritize management strategies, within and outside the Canarian archipelago, to impede the expansion of this invasive squirrel out of Fuerteventura Island.     

气候变化下栓皮栎潜在地理分布格局及其主导气候因子

栓皮栎(Quercus variabilis)是东亚天然分布最广泛的树种之一。利用最大熵(Maxent)模型对现实气候条件下栓皮栎在东亚地区的潜在分布及其分布的主导气候因子进行分析,同时结合全新世中期(6000年前)和未来气候(2050年)来模拟和预测气候变化背景下栓皮栎潜在分布格局的变化。结果表明:现实气候条件下东亚栓皮栎适生区(适宜生境和低适宜生境)面积占总研究区面积的21.88%,主要集中在东亚南部区域,在我国北起陕西中部、山西和河北南部边缘、山东,西起甘肃东部边缘、四川中东部、云南、西藏东部边缘,一直到东部沿海区域,同时在朝鲜半岛南部和日本中南部也有分布,其中适宜生境面积占研究区总面积的5.69%,主要集中在秦岭山脉、大巴山脉、伏牛山、云南的云贵高原、罗霄山脉、南岭山脉、武夷山和台湾岛;气候变化情景下,栓皮栎的适生区分布面积变化较小,但其适宜生境的分布范围却发生了较大的变化,随着全球气候的波动性变化,适宜生境分布范围逐渐向西部秦岭山脉、大巴山脉、四川、重庆和云贵高原等区域集中,并使该分布中心的适宜生境面积逐渐扩大;影响栓皮栎分布的主要气候因子为最冷月的最低气温(Bio6)、最冷季平均气温(Bio11)和年降水量(Bio12),三者的贡献率分别为48.6%、21.4%和14.2%。     

Potential distribution analysis of an invasive alien species Parapediasia teterrella (Lepidoptera,Crambidae) in East Asia

The bluegrass webworm moth Parapediasia teterrella (Zincken, 1821) is a notorious pest that is native to North America. However, it has invaded East Asia and has caused serious economic losses in China and Japan. The objective of this paper is to analyse the potential geographic distribution of P. teterrella in East Asia with MaxEnt, using predictor variables related to temperature and precipitation. It is suggested that this species has potential to establish in Southeast China, most areas of Jeollanam-do, eastern coastal region of South Korea, and most areas of Japan. Furthermore, we applied the Jackknife test to evaluate the significance of climatic variables in modelling the potential distribution of P. teterrella. The result indicates that annual mean temperature (Bio1), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) mainly affect its geographical distribution. A map showing the potential distribution of P. teterrella in East Asia is provided, and morphological diagnosis of the species is also given.     

Phylogeny and biogeography of Arabian populations of the Persian Horned Viper Pseudocerastes persicus (Duméril,Bibron & Duméril, 1854)

The Persian Horned Viper (Pseudocerastes persicus) is distributed from northeast Iraq through the Iranian Plateau to western Pakistan with isolated populations in the Hajar Mountains of south-eastern Arabia. Like the other members of the genus Pseudocerastes, P. persicus is a sit-and-wait ambush feeder with low vagility, a characteristic that often results in high levels of population differentiation. In order to clarify the level of genetic variability, phylogenetic relationships, and biogeography of the Arabian populations of P. persicus we sequenced 597 base pairs of the mitochondrial cytochrome b of four individuals from the Hajar Mountains in south-eastern Arabia and inferred their phylogenetic relationships including 10 samples of P. persicus from Iran and Pakistan, four P. urarachnoides and one P. fieldi downloaded from GenBank. The four Arabian samples are genetically very similar in the gene fragment analysed and are phylogenetically very closely related to populations of P. persicus from coastal south Iran. Biogeographically, it appears that colonisation of the Hajar Mountains by P. persicus took place from Iran very recently, most probably during the last glaciation, when most of the Persian Gulf was above sea level and did not represent a barrier for dispersal.     

Ancient migratory events in the Middle East: new clues from the Y-chromosome variation of modern Iranians

Knowledge of high resolution Y-chromosome haplogroup diversification within Iran provides important geographic context regarding the spread and compartmentalization of male lineages in the Middle East and southwestern Asia. At present, the Iranian population is characterized by an extraordinary mix of different ethnic groups speaking a variety of Indo-Iranian, Semitic and Turkic languages. Despite these features, only few studies have investigated the multiethnic components of the Iranian gene pool. In this survey 938 Iranian male DNAs belonging to 15 ethnic groups from 14 Iranian provinces were analyzed for 84 Y-chromosome biallelic markers and 10 STRs. The results show an autochthonous but non-homogeneous ancient background mainly composed by J2a sub-clades with different external contributions. The phylogeography of the main haplogroups allowed identifying post-glacial and Neolithic expansions toward western Eurasia but also recent movements towards the Iranian region from western Eurasia (R1b-L23), Central Asia (Q-M25), Asia Minor (J2a-M92) and southern Mesopotamia (J1-Page08). In spite of the presence of important geographic barriers (Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges, and the Dasht-e Kavir and Dash-e Lut deserts) which may have limited gene flow, AMOVA analysis revealed that language, in addition to geography, has played an important role in shaping the nowadays Iranian gene pool. Overall, this study provides a portrait of the Y-chromosomal variation in Iran, useful for depicting a more comprehensive history of the peoples of this area as well as for reconstructing ancient migration routes. In addition, our results evidence the important role of the Iranian plateau as source and recipient of gene flow between culturally and genetically distinct populations.     

Alpine–Himalayan orogeny drove correlated morphological,molecular, and ecological diversification in the Persian dwarf snake (Squamata: Serpentes: Eirenis persicus)

The Persian dwarf snake Eirenis (Pseudocyclophis) persicus (Anderson, 1872) has a wide distribution range in south‐western Asia. This species group was comprehensively studied here using traditional biometry, geometric morphometrics, ecological niche modelling, and genetics. Our analyses revealed that E. persicus is split into two clades. A western clade, bearing at least two different species: E. persicus, distributed in south‐western Iran, and an undescribed species from south‐eastern Turkey and western Iran. The eastern clade consists of at least three species: Eirenis nigrofasciatus, distributed across north‐eastern Iraq, and western and southern Iran; Eirenis walteri, distributed across eastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, and western and southern Pakistan, and Eirenis angusticeps, distributed in north‐eastern Pakistan. Ecological niche modelling revealed that the distribution of the species in the western clade are mainly affected by winter precipitation, and those in the eastern clade are mainly affected by the minimum temperature of the coldest month. A molecular clock analysis revealed that the divergence and diversification of the E. persicus species group mainly correspond to Eocene to Pliocene orogeny events subsequent to the Arabia–Eurasia collision. This study confirms that specimens with the unique morphology of having 13 dorsal scale rows on the anterior dorsum, occurring in the Suleiman Mountains in central Pakistan, can be referred to Eirenis mcmahoni (Wall, 1911). However, at this moment we have insufficient data to evaluate the taxonomy of this species.     

Effects of Climate Change on <Emphasis Type="Italic">Paralaudakia lehmanni</Emphasis> (Nicolsky, 1896) (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Central Asia

Climate change and global warming are the main challenges regarding to the conservation biologists on the world. Reptiles are ectothermic animal and then highly dependent on the habitat temperature and precipitation. To protect reptiles, it is necessary to predict the impact of climate change effect on the species distribution and manage its conservation program. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the distribution pattern of Paralaudakia lehmanni in Central Asia. According to the results, the current distribution is predicted from North Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan and the precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19) was the most contributed bioclimate variable. Future predictions show a similar pattern with the current period and, based on the niche overlap test, the overlap of these patterns was more than 0.85 and indicated no differences between them. Distribution can be affected by the highland distribution of P. lehmanni. Because this species has such an elevated range, precipitation of coldest quarter is not predicted to change much in future and therefore suitable habitats will remain similar to current period. Finally, although there is no predicted impact of climate change on the species distribution pattern in future, the conservation of P. lehmanni is important because of other threats such as human disturbance and predation.     

The steppes and deserts of the Xizang Plateau (Tibet)

The Xizang Plateau (Tibet) covers a vast area over 4 000 m with a severe environment. Steppes and deserts are widely distributed on the plateau to the west of 91.5°E. Poaceae, Asteraceae, Fabaceae and Cyperaceae are the most important families in the composition of steppe communities. The steppe can be divided into high-cold steppe and montane steppe. The former one is characterized by the Stipa purpurea community, which occupies a vast area with a cold, dry climate: annual mean temperature 0 to –6°C, annual rainfall is 150–300 mm; The latter one is distributed in some limited regions, where the climate is less severe: annual mean temperature 0–7°C, annual rainfall is 150–400 mm. The representative communities here are the Stipa glareosa and S. bungeana communities. Chenopodiaceae and Asteraceae play a principal role in both high-cold and montane deserts. The high-cold desert is unique. Its major representative is the Ceratoides compacta community, which is found at about 5 000 m, in an extremely cold and very dry climate. The Ceratoides latens and Ajania fruticulosa communities are the common ones of the montane desert which mainly appears below 4 600 m in elevation, where the annual temperature is about 0°C and the rainfall is less than 100 mm. The distribution of the steppe and the desert communities shows a clear regional differentiation, and an equally clear vertical distribution pattern.     

The Gray Toad-headed Agama,Phrynocephalus scutellatus,on the Iranian Plateau: The degree of niche overlap depends on the phylogenetic distance

The Gray Toad-headed Agama (Phrynocephalus scutellatus) occurs in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan and is represented in Iran by four distinctive genetic clades. We built distribution models for three of these clades (one clade was not included due to a low number of distribution records) using Maximum Entropy Algorithm in order to determine the contribution of ecological factors to the distribution pattern. The degree of spatial niche overlap between every pair of clades were measured using Schoener's D niche overlap metric. The results showed that at species-level climate variables (annual precipitation, annual mean temperature) were the most influential parameters determining the boundaries of the distribution in Iran. Temperature seasonality was found to be the most influential factor in the distribution of both Clade I and Clade II. However, this variable was replaced by the annual mean temperature for Clade VI. Based on the results of Schoener's D metric, Clades I and II had the lowest, and Clades II and VI the highest level of ecological niche overlap. Comparing the result of niche overlap with genetic distance between the clades, it was found that the ecologically least similar clades were those with the longer history of genetic segregation.     

Biostratigraphy of the Peri-Gondwana Cambrian trilobite fauna (northern Kerman,Iran) and correlation with other countries

Polymeroid trilobite fauna from two stratigraphic sections (Godbondar and Kuhbanan) of the Kuhbanan Formation in northern Kerman (central Iran) were studied and subjected to biostratigraphic analysis. Eleven genera and species are recognised from the latest Early Cambrian and Middle Cambrian Peri-Gondwanian successions of the study sections. The recognised fauna includes Afghanocare lategenatum, Blountia blountia, Iranoleesia sp., Iranoleesia pisiformis, Kermanella kuhbananensis, Kermanella lata lata, Kermanella lata minuta, Kermanella sp., Redlichia chinensis, Redlichia noetlingi and Redlichia sp. Based on trilobite distribution, three trilobite biozones were recognised in the study sections, namely Redlichia noetlingi biozone, Kermanella kuhbananensis biozone and Iranoleesia pisiformis biozone. The age of the study sections is late Early Cambrian to late Middle Cambrian based on the recognised trilobite biozones. The recognised late Early Cambrian trilobite assemblages (especially Redlichia and Kermanella) from northern Kerman are similar to those found from some other parts of Gondwana or Peri-Gondwana terrains (north India, Pakistan, northwestern Kashmir, Tajikistan, South Australia, South China and Afghanistan) and show affinities with fauna found in some other parts of Iran (Alborz, northern Iran; Tabas, eastern Iran; southeast Karman).