Landscape variability explains spatial pattern of population structure of northern pike (Esox lucius) in a large fluvial system

A growing number of studies have been investigating the influence of contemporary environmental factors on population genetic structure, but few have addressed the issue of spatial patterns in the variable intensity of factors influencing the extent of population structure, and particularly so in aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we document the landscape genetics of northern pike (Esox lucius), based on the analysis of nearly 3000 individuals from 40 sampling sites using 22 microsatellites along the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River system (750 km) that locally presents diverse degrees of interannual water level variation. Genetic structure was globally very weak (F_ST = 0.0208) but spatially variable with mean level of differentiation in the upstream section of the studied area being threefold higher (F_ST = 0.0297) than observed in the downstream sector (F_ST = 0.0100). Beside interannual water level fluctuation, 19 additional variables were considered and a multiple regression on distance matrices model (R² = 0.6397, P < 0.001) revealed that water masses (b = 0.3617, P < 0.001) and man‐made dams (b = 0.4852, P < 0.005) reduced genetic connectivity. Local level of interannual water level stability was positively associated to the extent of genetic differentiation (b = 0.3499, P < 0.05). As water level variation impacts on yearly quality and localization of spawning habitats, our study illustrates how temporal variation in local habitat availability, caused by interannual water level fluctuations, may locally decrease population genetic structure by forcing fish to move over longer distances to find suitable habitat. This study thus represents one of the rare examples of how environmental fluctuations may influence spatial variation in the extent of population genetic structure within a given species.     

Melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) polymorphisms’ influence on size and dermoscopic features of nevi

The melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) is a highly polymorphic gene. The loss‐of‐function MC1R variants (“R”) have been strongly associated with red hair color phenotype and an increased melanoma risk. We sequenced the MC1R gene in 175 healthy individuals to assess the influence of MC1R on nevus phenotype. We identified that MC1R variant carriers had larger nevi both on the back [p‐value = .016, adjusted for multiple parameters (adj. p‐value)] and on the upper limbs (adj. p‐value = .007). Specifically, we identified a positive association between the “R” MC1R variants and visible vessels in nevi [p‐value = .033, corrected using the FDR method for multiple comparisons (corrected p‐value)], dots and globules in nevi (corrected p‐value = .033), nevi with eccentric hyperpigmentation (corrected p‐value = .033), a high degree of freckling (adj. p‐value = .019), and an associative trend with presence of blue nevi (corrected p‐value = .120). In conclusion, the MC1R gene appears to influence the nevus phenotype.     

Characterizing habitat suitability for a central‐place forager in a dynamic marine environment

Characterizing habitat suitability for a marine predator requires an understanding of the environmental heterogeneity and variability over the range in which a population moves during a particular life cycle. Female California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) are central‐place foragers and are particularly constrained while provisioning their young. During this time, habitat selection is a function of prey availability and proximity to the rookery, which has important implications for reproductive and population success. We explore how lactating females may select habitat and respond to environmental variability over broad spatial and temporal scales within the California Current System. We combine near‐real‐time remotely sensed satellite oceanography, animal tracking data (n = 72) from November to February over multiple years (2003–2009) and Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) to determine the probability of sea lion occurrence based on environmental covariates. Results indicate that sea lion presence is associated with cool ( <14°C ), productive waters, shallow depths, increased eddy activity, and positive sea‐level anomalies. Predictive habitat maps generated from these biophysical associations suggest winter foraging areas are spatially consistent in the nearshore and offshore environments, except during the 2004–2005 winter, which coincided with an El Niño event. Here, we show how a species distribution model can provide broadscale information on the distribution of female California sea lions during an important life history stage and its implications for population dynamics and spatial management.     

Water availability drives signatures of local adaptation in whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) across fine spatial scales of the Lake Tahoe Basin,USA

Patterns of local adaptation at fine spatial scales are central to understanding how evolution proceeds, and are essential to the effective management of economically and ecologically important forest tree species. Here, we employ single and multilocus analyses of genetic data (n = 116 231 SNPs) to describe signatures of fine‐scale adaptation within eight whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) populations across the local extent of the environmentally heterogeneous Lake Tahoe Basin, USA. We show that despite highly shared genetic variation (F_ST = 0.0069), there is strong evidence for adaptation to the rain shadow experienced across the eastern Sierra Nevada. Specifically, we build upon evidence from a common garden study and find that allele frequencies of loci associated with four phenotypes (mean = 236 SNPs), 18 environmental variables (mean = 99 SNPs), and those detected through genetic differentiation (n = 110 SNPs) exhibit significantly higher signals of selection (covariance of allele frequencies) than could be expected to arise, given the data. We also provide evidence that this covariance tracks environmental measures related to soil water availability through subtle allele frequency shifts across populations. Our results replicate empirical support for theoretical expectations of local adaptation for populations exhibiting strong gene flow and high selective pressures and suggest that ongoing adaptation of many P. albicaulis populations within the Lake Tahoe Basin will not be constrained by the lack of genetic variation. Even so, some populations exhibit low levels of heritability for the traits presumed to be related to fitness. These instances could be used to prioritize management to maintain adaptive potential. Overall, we suggest that established practices regarding whitebark pine conservation be maintained, with the additional context of fine‐scale adaptation.     

Will phenotypic plasticity affecting flowering phenology keep pace with climate change?

Rising temperatures have begun to shift flowering time, but it is unclear whether phenotypic plasticity can accommodate projected temperature change for this century. Evaluating clines in phenological traits and the extent and variation in plasticity can provide key information on assessing risk of maladaptation and developing strategies to mitigate climate change. In this study, flower phenology was examined in 52 populations of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) growing in three common gardens. Flowering date (anthesis) varied 91 days from late July to late November among gardens. Mixed‐effects modeling explained 79% of variation in flowering date, of which 46% could be assigned to plasticity and genetic variation in plasticity and 33% to genetics (conditional R² = 0.79, marginal R² = 0.33). Two environmental variables that explained the genetic variation were photoperiod and the onset of spring, the Julian date of accumulating degree‐days >5 °C reaching 100. The genetic variation was mapped for contemporary and future climates (decades 2060 and 2090), showing flower date change varies considerably across the landscape. Plasticity was estimated to accommodate, on average, a ±13‐day change in flowering date. However, the examination of genetic variation in plasticity suggests that the magnitude of plasticity could be affected by variation in the sensitivity to photoperiod and temperature. In a warmer common garden, lower‐latitude populations have greater plasticity (+16 days) compared to higher‐latitude populations (+10 days). Mapped climatypes of flowering date for contemporary and future climates illustrate the wide breadth of plasticity and large geographic overlap. Our research highlights the importance of integrating information on genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity and climatic niche modeling to evaluate plant responses and elucidate vulnerabilities to climate change.     

Genome‐wide analyses suggest parallel selection for universal traits may eclipse local environmental selection in a highly mobile carnivore

Ecological and environmental heterogeneity can produce genetic differentiation in highly mobile species. Accordingly, local adaptation may be expected across comparatively short distances in the presence of marked environmental gradients. Within the European continent, wolves (Canis lupus) exhibit distinct north–south population differentiation. We investigated more than 67‐K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci for signatures of local adaptation in 59 unrelated wolves from four previously identified population clusters (northcentral Europe n = 32, Carpathian Mountains n = 7, Dinaric‐Balkan n = 9, Ukrainian Steppe n = 11). Our analyses combined identification of outlier loci with findings from genome‐wide association study of individual genomic profiles and 12 environmental variables. We identified 353 candidate SNP loci. We examined the SNP position and neighboring megabase (1 Mb, one million bases) regions in the dog (C. lupus familiaris) genome for genes potentially under selection, including homologue genes in other vertebrates. These regions included functional genes for, for example, temperature regulation that may indicate local adaptation and genes controlling for functions universally important for wolves, including olfaction, hearing, vision, and cognitive functions. We also observed strong outliers not associated with any of the investigated variables, which could suggest selective pressures associated with other unmeasured environmental variables and/or demographic factors. These patterns are further supported by the examination of spatial distributions of the SNPs associated with universally important traits, which typically show marked differences in allele frequencies among population clusters. Accordingly, parallel selection for features important to all wolves may eclipse local environmental selection and implies long‐term separation among population clusters.     

An ecological genetic delineation of local seed‐source provenance for ecological restoration

An increasingly important practical application of the analysis of spatial genetic structure within plant species is to help define the extent of local provenance seed collection zones that minimize negative impacts in ecological restoration programs. Here, we derive seed sourcing guidelines from a novel range‐wide assessment of spatial genetic structure of 24 populations of Banksia menziesii (Proteaceae), a widely distributed Western Australian tree of significance in local ecological restoration programs. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) of 100 amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers revealed significant genetic differentiation among populations (Φ_PT = 0.18). Pairwise population genetic dissimilarity was correlated with geographic distance, but not environmental distance derived from 15 climate variables, suggesting overall neutrality of these markers with regard to these climate variables. Nevertheless, Bayesian outlier analysis identified four markers potentially under selection, although these were not correlated with the climate variables. We calculated a global R‐statistic using analysis of similarities (ANOSIM) to test the statistical significance of population differentiation and to infer a threshold seed collection zone distance of ~60 km (all markers) and 100 km (outlier markers) when genetic distance was regressed against geographic distance. Population pairs separated by >60 km were, on average, twice as likely to be significantly genetically differentiated than population pairs separated by <60 km, suggesting that habitat‐matched sites within a 30‐km radius around a restoration site genetically defines a local provenance seed collection zone for B. menziesii. Our approach is a novel probability‐based practical solution for the delineation of a local seed collection zone to minimize negative genetic impacts in ecological restoration.     

Inter‐individual variation in colour patterns in noctuid moths characterizes long‐distance dispersers and agricultural pests

A high capacity for long‐distance dispersal is a key to success for species confronted with environmental heterogeneity, habitat modification, fragmentation and loss. However, dispersal capacity is difficult to quantify and therefore poorly known in most taxa. Here, we report on a test for an association of variation in dispersal capacity with variable colouration of noctuid moths. First, using data from 12 experienced lepidopterologists, we showed that despite variation among experts in average assessments, different species are consistently classified as having non‐variable, variable or highly variable colour patterns when assessed by different experts. We then compared the incidence of non‐resident species with high inter‐individual variation in colour patterns recorded on the isolated island Utklippan (n = 47), with that in a species pool of potential long‐distance dispersers from the nearest mainland (n = 295). Species with high inter‐individual colour pattern variation were over‐represented on the island compared with species having non‐variable colouration. This finding constitutes rare evidence from the wild of long‐distance dispersal, measured on a spatial scale relevant for moths when tracking habitats in fragmented and changing landscapes or when keeping pace with environmental challenges associated with climate change. Finally, we showed that Swedish noctuid moths classified as agricultural pests (n = 28) had more variable colour patterns compared with non‐pests (n = 368). The majority of agricultural pests were also recorded on the isolated island, an outcome that is indicative of pest species having high dispersal capacity. Data on colour pattern variation may thus offer a simple and cost‐effective proxy to estimate dispersal capacity and can also help identify potential pest species. Our findings are potentially useful when modelling and predicting population and range dynamics of species in spatiotemporally heterogeneous environments, with direct implications for conservation biology and pest management.     

High degree of genetic differentiation in marine three‐spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

Populations of widespread marine organisms are typically characterized by a low degree of genetic differentiation in neutral genetic markers, but much less is known about differentiation in genes whose functional roles are associated with specific selection regimes. To uncover possible adaptive population divergence and heterogeneous genomic differentiation in marine three‐spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus), we used a candidate gene‐based genome‐scan approach to analyse variability in 138 microsatellite loci located within/close to (<6 kb) functionally important genes in samples collected from ten geographic locations. The degree of genetic differentiation in markers classified as neutral or under balancing selection—as determined with several outlier detection methods—was low (F_ST = 0.033 or 0.011, respectively), whereas average F_ST for directionally selected markers was significantly higher (F_ST = 0.097). Clustering analyses provided support for genomic and geographic heterogeneity in selection: six genetic clusters were identified based on allele frequency differences in the directionally selected loci, whereas four were identified with the neutral loci. Allelic variation in several loci exhibited significant associations with environmental variables, supporting the conjecture that temperature and salinity, but not optic conditions, are important drivers of adaptive divergence among populations. In general, these results suggest that in spite of the high degree of physical connectivity and gene flow as inferred from neutral marker genes, marine stickleback populations are strongly genetically structured in loci associated with functionally relevant genes.     

Are habitat fragmentation,local adaptation and isolation‐by‐distance driving population divergence in wild rice Oryza rufipogon?

Habitat fragmentation weakens the connection between populations and is accompanied with isolation by distance (IBD) and local adaptation (isolation by adaptation, IBA), both leading to genetic divergence between populations. To understand the evolutionary potential of a population and to formulate proper conservation strategies, information on the roles of IBD and IBA in driving population divergence is critical. The putative ancestor of Asian cultivated rice (Oryza sativa) is endangered in China due to habitat loss and fragmentation. We investigated the genetic variation in 11 Chinese Oryza rufipogon populations using 79 microsatellite loci to infer the effects of habitat fragmentation, IBD and IBA on genetic structure. Historical and current gene flows were found to be rare (m_h = 0.0002–0.0013, m_c = 0.007–0.029), indicating IBD and resulting in a high level of population divergence (F_ST = 0.343). High within‐population genetic variation (H_E = 0.377–0.515), relatively large effective population sizes (N_e = 96–158), absence of bottlenecks and limited gene flow were found, demonstrating little impact of recent habitat fragmentation on these populations. Eleven gene‐linked microsatellite loci were identified as outliers, indicating local adaptation. Hierarchical AMOVA and partial Mantel tests indicated that population divergence of Chinese O. rufipogon was significantly correlated with environmental factors, especially habitat temperature. Common garden trials detected a significant adaptive population divergence associated with latitude. Collectively, these findings imply that IBD due to historical rather than recent fragmentation, followed by local adaptation, has driven population divergence in O. rufipogon.     

Effect of Yangtze River on population genetic structure of the relict plant Parrotia subaequalis in eastern China

Parrotia subaequalis (Hamamelidaceae) is a Tertiary relic species endemic in eastern China. We used inter‐simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers to access genetic diversity and population genetic structure in natural five populations of P. subaequalis. The levels of genetic diversity were higher at species level (H = 0.2031) but lower at population level (H = 0.1096). The higher genetic diversity at species levels might be attributed to the accumulation of distinctive genotypes which adapted to the different habitats after Quaternary glaciations. Meanwhile, founder effects on the early stage, and subsequent bottleneck of population regeneration due to its biological characteristics, environmental features, and human activities, seemed to explain the low population levels of genetic diversity. The hierarchical AMOVA revealed high levels (42.60%) of among‐population genetic differentiation, which was in congruence with the high levels of Nei's genetic differentiation index (G_ST = 0.4629) and limited gene flow (N_m = 0.5801) among the studied populations. Mantel test showed a significant isolation‐by‐distance, indicating that geographic isolation has a significant effect on genetic structure in this species. Unweighted pair‐group method with arithmetic average clustering, PCoA, and Bayesian analyses uniformly recovered groups that matched the geographical distribution of this species. In particular, our results suggest that Yangtze River has served as a natural barrier to gene flow between populations occurred on both riversides. Concerning the management of P. subaequalis, the high genetic differentiation among populations indicates that preserving all five natural populations in situ and collecting enough individuals from these populations for ex situ conservation are necessary.     

Influence of clay licks on the diversity and structure of an Amazonian forest

The spatial heterogeneity of resource availability is a major driver of biodiversity patterns. Some environmental conditions and resources are characterized by large‐scale patterns of variation within the landscape. Clumped local discontinuities or discrete elements also increase spatial heterogeneity, promoting local ‘biodiversity hot spots’ by modifying habitat characteristics and promoting plant–animal interactions. Clay licks are faunal attractors owing to their role in the nutritional ecology of the user species; nevertheless, the effect of their presence on the surrounding vegetation has been poorly quantified. Here, we use data from 100 × 10 m transects and evaluate the effects of the presence of clay licks on forest diversity and structure at local and landscape scales. In clay lick areas, there was a higher abundance of certain species, which helps to homogenize species composition between localities counteracting the natural distance‐decay of compositional similarity between transects without clay lick influence (controls). Compared to control sites, clay lick′s forests had higher palm densities, shorter but more variable individuals in the canopy and understory, a thinner canopy layer, and denser herbaceous and ground level covers. These differences were found along the whole length of transects in both sampled areas types. These results reveal that the presence of discrete elements (i.e., clay licks) may help to explain the compositional and structural heterogeneity of Amazonian forests influencing ecological processes such as seed dispersal and trampling. These considerations may be relevant for other biomes where clay licks are present and give weight to their inclusion in conservation initiatives in tropical forests.     

Decreased levels of alpha‐synuclein in cerebrospinal fluid of patients with clinically isolated syndrome and multiple sclerosis

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) α‐synuclein (ASYN) levels are emerging as a possible biomarker in a number of neurodegenerative conditions; however, there has been little study of such levels in demyelinating conditions with neurodegeneration such as multiple sclerosis (MS). In this study, we aimed to assess CSF ASYN levels in MS spectrum [clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and MS] patients and compare them to those obtained in control subjects with benign neurological conditions (BNC). We used a recently developed, ultra‐sensitive sandwich enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay to measure and compare CSF ASYN levels in three categories of subjects: BNC (n = 38), CIS (n = 36) and MS [Relapsing Remitting (RRMS, n = 22) and Primary Progressive (PPMS, n = 15)]. We also performed secondary analyses, including relationship of CSF ASYN levels to aging, gender, presence of CSF oligoclonal bands (OB) and gadolinium (Gd)‐enhancing demyelinating lesions on T1‐weighted MRIs. CSF ASYN levels were found to be significantly lower in the CIS (78.2 ± 7.5 pg/mL), RRMS (76.8 ± 5.1 pg/mL), and PPMS (76.3 ± 6.7 pg/mL) groups compared to the BNC (125.7 ± 13.6 pg/mL) group. Secondary analyses did not reveal additional correlations. Our results suggest that in a cohort of CIS and MS patients, CSF ASYN levels are decreased, thus providing another possible link between MS and neurodegeneration. Future studies will need to be performed to confirm and extend these findings, to lead to a fuller understanding of the possible biological link between ASYN and MS.

     

Fine‐scale habitat heterogeneity explains the local distribution of two Amazonian frog species of concern for conservation

To test the hypothesis that subtle differences in abiotic requirements can result in almost total spatial segregation, we sampled two species of diurnal frogs, Atelopus spumarius and Allobates sumtuosus, in a primary forest reserve in central Brazilian Amazonia. We conducted visual and acoustic surveys on three occasions over 2 months, in 40 streamside (riparian) plots distributed throughout the reserve's two major drainage basins, using a grid system that covers 64 km². On average, drainages differed in the pH of stream water and the number of connected and isolated streamside pools. Differences in abiotic characteristics of drainages were associated with the spatial distribution of frog species. The occurrence and density of Allobates sumtuosus was negatively related to stream pH and discharge and positively related to the number of isolated pools in plots. The occurrence and density of Atelopus spumarius was associated with streams with high discharge and pH near neutral. These results indicate that although very large reserves will probably contain sufficient landscape heterogeneity to accommodate different species of diurnal frogs, due to strongly patchy distributions, in situ studies using fine‐scale species‐distribution models will be necessary to assess the adequacy of small reserves in Amazonia that cover hundreds of square kilometers or less for the conservation of some anuran species.     

Genetic variation and bidirectional gene flow in the riparian plant Miscanthus lutarioriparius,across its endemic range: implications for adaptive potential

Miscanthus lutarioriparius is an endemic species that grows along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and is a valuable source of germplasm for the development of second‐generation energy crops. The plant that propagates via seeds, stem nodes, and rhizomes shows high phenotypic variation and strong local adaptation. Here, we examined the magnitude and spatial distribution of genetic variation in M. lutarioriparius across its entire distributional range and tested underlying factors that shaped its genetic variation. Population genetic analyses were conducted on 644 individuals from 25 populations using 16 microsatellite markers. M. lutarioriparius exhibited a high level of genetic variation (H_E = 0.682–0.786; A_r = 4.74–8.06) and a low differentiation (F_ST = 0.063; D_est = 0.153). Of the total genetic variation, 10% was attributed to the differences among populations (df = 24, P < 0.0001), whereas 90% was attributed to the differences among individuals (df = 619, P ≤ 0.0001). Genetic diversity did not differ significantly across longitudes and did not increase in the populations growing downstream of the Yangtze River. However, significant associations were found between genetic differentiation and spatial distance. Six genetic discontinuities were identified, which mostly distributed among downstream populations. We conclude that anthropogenic factors and landscape features both contributed to shaping the pattern of gene flow in M. lutarioriparius, including long‐distance bidirectional dispersal. Our results explain the genetic basis of the high degree of adaptability in M. lutarioriparius and identify potential sources of new germplasm for the domestication of this potential second‐generation energy crop.     

Molecular diversity and landscape genomics of the crop wild relative Triticum urartu across the Fertile Crescent

Modern plant breeding can benefit from the allelic variation that exists in natural populations of crop wild relatives that evolved under natural selection in varying pedoclimatic conditions. In this study, next‐generation sequencing was used to generate 1.3 million genome‐wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on ex situ collections of Triticum urartu L., the wild donor of the A^u subgenome of modern wheat. A set of 75 511 high‐quality SNPs were retained to describe 298 T. urartu accessions collected throughout the Fertile Crescent. Triticum urartu showed a complex pattern of genetic diversity, with two main genetic groups distributed sequentially from west to east. The incorporation of geographical information on sampling points showed that genetic diversity was correlated to the geographical distance (R² = 0.19) separating samples from Jordan and Lebanon, from Syria and southern Turkey, and from eastern Turkey, Iran and Iraq. The wild emmer genome was used to derive the physical positions of SNPs on the seven chromosomes of the A^u subgenome, allowing us to describe a relatively slow decay of linkage disequilibrium in the collection. Outlier loci were described on the basis of the geographic distribution of the T. urartu accessions, identifying a hotspot of directional selection on chromosome 4A. Bioclimatic variation was derived from grid data and related to allelic variation using a genome‐wide association approach, identifying several marker–environment associations (MEAs). Fifty‐seven MEAs were associated with altitude and temperature measures while 358 were associated with rainfall measures. The most significant MEAs and outlier loci were used to identify genomic loci with adaptive potential (some already reported in wheat), including dormancy and frost resistance loci. We advocate the application of genomics and landscape genomics on ex situ collections of crop wild relatives to efficiently identify promising alleles and genetic materials for incorporation into modern crop breeding.     

A novel noninvasive procedure for high‐throughput screening of major seed traits

The large numbers of samples processed in breeding and biodiversity programmes require the development of efficient methods for the nondestructive evaluation of basic seed properties. Near‐infrared spectroscopy is the state‐of‐the‐art solution for this analytical demand, but it also has some limitations. Here, we present a novel, rapid, accurate procedure based on time domain‐nuclear magnetic resonance (TD‐NMR), designed to simultaneously quantify a number of basic seed traits without any seed destruction. Using a low‐field, benchtop ¹H‐NMR instrument, the procedure gives a high‐accuracy measurement of oil content (R² = 0.98), carbohydrate content (R² = 0.99), water content (R² = 0.98) and both fresh and dry weight of seeds/grains (R² = 0.99). The method requires a minimum of ~20 mg biomass per sample and thus enables to screen individual, intact seeds. When combined with an automated sample delivery system, a throughput of ~1400 samples per day is achievable. The procedure has been trialled as a proof of concept on cereal grains (collection of ~3000 accessions of Avena spp. curated at the IPK genebank). A mathematical multitrait selection approach has been designed to simplify the selection of outlying (most contrasting) accessions. To provide deeper insights into storage oil topology, some oat accessions were further analysed by three‐dimensional seed modelling and lipid imaging. We conclude that the novel TD‐NMR‐based screening tool opens perspectives for breeding and plant biology in general.     

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.     

Host species,and not environment,predicts variation in blood parasite prevalence,distribution, and diversity along a humidity gradient in northern South America

Environmental factors strongly influence the ecology and evolution of vector‐borne infectious diseases. However, our understanding of the influence of climatic variation on host–parasite interactions in tropical systems is rudimentary. We studied five species of birds and their haemosporidian parasites (Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) at 16 sampling sites to understand how environmental heterogeneity influences patterns of parasite prevalence, distribution, and diversity across a marked gradient in water availability in northern South America. We used molecular methods to screen for parasite infections and to identify parasite lineages. To characterize spatial heterogeneity in water availability, we used weather‐station and remotely sensed climate data. We estimated parasite prevalence while accounting for spatial autocorrelation, and used a model selection approach to determine the effect of variables related to water availability and host species on prevalence. The prevalence, distribution, and lineage diversity of haemosporidian parasites varied among localities and host species, but we found no support for the hypothesis that the prevalence and diversity of parasites increase with increasing water availability. Host species and host × climate interactions had stronger effects on infection prevalence, and parasite lineages were strongly associated with particular host species. Because climatic variables had little effect on the overall prevalence and lineage diversity of haemosporidian parasites across study sites, our results suggest that independent host–parasite dynamics may influence patterns in parasitism in environmentally heterogeneous landscapes.